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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

by: James L.

Fri Jan 21, 2011 at 6:00 PM EST


James L. :: Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 208 comments
Help a grad student out.
I'm interested in doing some research on ballot propositions.  Does anyone know a good source to find the text of initatives and referenda and vote data?  I know of Ballotpedia, but does anyone have anything else.

Thanks in advance.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

Depends what state
For California Hasting Law Library has a really good on line database.

WA-07, 34 years old
[ Parent ]
Thanks.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
NCSL
The National Council of State Legislatures collects information on them.  I don't remember if they have the full text or just summaries though

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
Thanks.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Congress seems more interesting then the presidential race.
I think the House/Senate could go either way. Most interested in the house and the key regions the dems need to win back the house. It looks like California/Florida are the biggest wildcards, Upstate New York/New Hampshire are key in the northeast. Mid atlantic is trying to hold the north carolina seats/make a comeback of some kind in virgina. Midwest Obama needs to campaign hard for mid west house dems in Illinois-Wisconsin-Michigan-Minnesota maybe Omaha to. Any other thoughts? I'm thinking the republicans perspective is to just protect as many of these new incumbents as possible through redistricting but regardless I think those areas are key to success regardless of how badly some of them get drawn.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
Another thought
anyone have any idea what will happen to the districts in PA specfically the 6/7/8th and 11th/15th.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
This is easier
said than done, particularly since congressional districts are likely to change which could possibly make past comparisons tricky. But whether the approximation is very rough or it's made more exact by some people who are good with numbers figuring stuff out, I still think it's valid to try to expand the map. The DCCC supposedly has 61 districts in mind, but I imagine most of them are ones that we have held recently.  That list might be expanded, if it finds districts that meet certain characteristics. I'd have the Democrats look at any district where their candidate managed at least 30 percent of the vote in the last few cycles and then start eliminating them based on the failure to present a possible winning coalition. There are some districts where it'll be exceedingly hard to win, but I would think there are at least ten where we could be competitive, whether it's through mobilizing already registered voters or registering new ones, particularly if they are becoming more diverse. It won't be cheap, but could be subsidized by the top of the ticket, especially since a lot of these districts are likely to be located in the same states which will probably be swing states.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
True I think we should hit the areas where we look like we can grow
I know a lot was said about the lack of registration in texas and how that could be a gold mine in local elections now and national ones in the future. Only point I disagree with you on is that the map is pretty damn big as it is but it could narrow with the new districts so I agree about expanding just make sure its done right cause there are lots of races that are allready going to be contested as it is even with a crappy map.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Well, yes,
there has to be a reasonable list of targets and priorities have to be made. And while it is big now, it could be made bigger still. Not that much bigger, of course, since there are at least 150 to 160 seats for each side that will almost never be competitive but big enough so that we aren't fighting over exactly the same territory cycle after cycle.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Nevada: "the rottenest of American commonwealths"
This is completely OT, but earlier this week, there was a thread where someone made a comment about the political nature of a lot of the Western states' boundaries. This all came in a discussion about Kent Conrad's open ND Senate seat, with the comment being about how a major reason there are two Dakotas is because Republicans wanted an extra couple of Senate seats.

As it turns out, I had recently read a few articles on this very subject and dug out an old NYT piece about Nevada, from 1887 that was extremely funny. I thought I'd repost it here, just for kicks.

Background: Nevada was by far the smallest state in the country for nearly a century of its existence, and statehood was only pushed through in order to boost Lincoln's reelection. Shortly thereafter, its population crashed when the silver rush ended, and for years easterners would deride Nevada as a "rotten borough," etc., given that it's voting population was only about 12,000. As a result, there were numerous proposals to merge the state with the then-territories of Idaho and/or Utah. In fact, a bill to attach the Idaho Panhandle to Washington - the first step in a process meant to the remainder of Idaho to Nevada - passed Congress but was vetoed by Grover Cleveland. (It would have certainly have produced a bizarre-looking state, for sure.)

Around that time, the NYT published an editorial on this topic that notes local opposition to the merger from the Mormon community in Idaho.

They Could Take Nevada
NYT
April 10, 1887

In the course of some remarks about the proposed annexation of Southern Idaho to the dying State of Nevada, the Salt Lake Herald, an organ of the Mormon Church, makes an important admission.

...

The Salt Lake Herald now declares that Mormons are opposed to the annexation project and that they do not desire to get possession of Nevada. But at the same time it says:

"There has been no time within the past fifteen years when the Mormons could not have gained political control of Nevada six months after they had set out to do it; they have had the voters and the ability to colonize them in the 'sagebrush State.' If the Mormons had hankered for statehood enough to induce them to make the sacrifice required, they would long since have controlled Nevada, made their own laws, and sent to the United States Congress two Senators and one Representative of their own choosing. The Mormons want nothing to do with Nevada. They recognize it as politically and socially the rottenest of American commonwealths, and as worthless materially; and they have no ambition to make the sacrifice necessary to its moral, political; and material redemption."

Link: http://query.nytimes.com/gst/a...

that's a fantastic find
thanks!

38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU
[ Parent ]
Because Dave's app has
political data for PA, I decided to draw a "designer" state senate district for myself. If I were crazy enough to run, I would probably want one that looked exactly like this:

Designer state senate district

77% Obama, 67% white, and balanced between Philadelphia (mostly Center City) and it's near suburbs in Montgomery County.

(Replacement post to fix the margin).

Thanks for the repost!

[ Parent ]
Hipster VRA
Your post inspired me to create a Massachusetts senate district containing the preponderance of hipsters living in the area. (I also live in the district.)

Included are Davis Square, Union Square, Inman Square, Central Square, Cambridgeport, Alston, Mission Hill and JP, plus BU and MIT for connectiveness and population parity.

Like Hispanics, hipsters have lower voter participation rates than their population in area may suggest, so even a majority hipster district may not ensure a hipster senator.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
Oh, how I wish...
... there was an equivalent of Dave's App for Hungary. Or that there were actual districts, and then an equivalent of Dave's App, for Holland. I'd love to do this kind of tinkering, not just in terms of making feasible districts that could actually work, but especially in terms like these, designer districts of mere sociological value.  

38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU
[ Parent ]
Hahah!
Now do Bedford Ave.!
[ Parent ]
Here's another one

A VRA Irish state Senate district, composed of Milton (38% Irish), Braintree (36%), Weymouth (33%), South Boston, and a narrow strip of Dorchester. I don't know the ethnic data for the Boston precincts but Southie is probably close to 2/3 Irish and the included section of Dorchester is no lower than 40%.

I tried to draw a congressional district, but it ends up looking a lot like the current MA-10, which has to be the most Irish in the country.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
I guess if the 10th and the 9th are merged
and you have a Southie to the Cape district rather than a Quincy to the Cape district, it would be even more Irish.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
PPP: Obama down 1 vs Palin in Texas
Here is the link
He is down 16 v Huck, 7 v Romney, 5 v Gingrich, and tied with Rick Perry. This seems very over optimistic to me, but then again this is the same sample that gave Republicans (even relatively unknown ones) huge leads in the senate race. Who knows, maybe the purpling of Texas is happening faster than I thought.  

Male, VA-08
Not much surprising there, except
Palin outperforms Perry.  Jeez.

I don't think there is any chance Palin could hold that margin after the primaries though.  Even Gingrich would be hard-pressed a 5 point lead after what is almost certain to be a contentious primary season.

On the positive side for the GOP, Huck seems likely to hold the Dakotas to Texas row of states.

[ Parent ]
Well, there are a couple things that surprise me here
Not necessarily Palin's or Perry's performance, but more Romney's and Gingrich's. Why is Romney only up seven vs Obama? The only thing I can think of is anti-Mormonism among the evangelical crowd. And Gingrich? I thought his base was supposed to be in the south.

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Texas isn't the Gingrich south
and Mormonism will cost Romney across the south.

The Applachian south and the Plains are most in tune with Huckabee.

[ Parent ]
Gingrich isn't really much of a Southerner, anyways...
He acts and talks like a New Englander. He certainly doesn't give off a Southern "vibe", and I doubt that many Southerners would feel that he's "one of them" without knowing where he's from (which is why he's going to base his campaign in Georgia to remind folk where he's from).
[ Parent ]
Keith Olbermann leaving MSNBC
http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011...

MSNBC and Keith Olbermann have ended their contract. The last broadcast
of "Countdown with Keith Olbermann" will be this evening. MSNBC thanks
Keith for his integral role in MSNBC's success and we wish him well in
his future endeavors."


"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
Wow
I did not really expect that. At least with Lou Dobbs we knew he was out the door at CNN when went into the birther realm.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
There have been rumors for awhile...
....that Comcast would fire Olbermann the second they took over.  And those rumors turned out to be correct.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...
[ Parent ]
It seems to be more than that.
They put in Cenk Uyghur into the lineup and he's more critical than Olbermann.  They also thankfully kept in Rachel Maddow, someone who I've grown to respect a lot.  It also seems that they've had long-standing conflicts between Olbermann and the higher-ups and the new stakeholders don't want that.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I just can't believe it.
Cenk Uyghur is NOT a substitute for Olbermann.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Olbermann is not a "team" player.
He can be a primadonna and likes to create controversy not just by attacking politicans, but members of other networks, and even his own network.  When Olberman attacks Murdoch Fox responds back by attacking the management of GE.  Comcast certainly would not want any of that.  Chris Matthews and Rachel Maddow are far more willing to take the memos from the network and follow their dictates on what is permissible and what is recommended.  And Cenk should be as well.

What makes Olbermann interesting and compelling is his volatility.  Which while good for ratings can turn off advertisers and cause headaches for the network.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
I know that.
I just hope that he finds a new home, whether in sports, radio, or HBO.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I wonder
about that last part. It's theoretically possible, sure, but where's the evidence for such a claim? As far as I know, only person who's still on the air that has had major issues with advertisers is Glenn Beck.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I meant volatility in a tv personality in general.
Advertisers are of course always a concern.  Especially if your niche is on the left and right and could be the cause of a boycott campaign.  But there is a bit more to that.  It's the willingness to show up at network events and wine and dine advertisers.  That is why for instance Jay Leno always triumphs.

But MSNBC's concern is always selling advertising.  They could care less about politics as long as it makes them a buck.  If talking head news programming wasn't so cheap they'd probably replace it with even more repeats of Lockup or To Catch a Predator.  There had to be something going on because it's difficult to believe anyone seriously thinks Laurence O'Donnell will get better ratings or better demographics than Olbermann.

Of all the guest hosts Chris Hayes was the best.  But probably he took himself out of the running after he passed during Olbermann's suspension.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
Nobody is going to pay attention to Cenk
and he'll be cancelled in a few months. They know that, this is the bone they're throwing to not alarm the left. Cenk will end up replaced with Harold Ford or something.  
[ Parent ]
No duh.
He's far better suited for radio.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I don't know
if he really got screwed her--it wouldn't surprise me, but I don't know enough to speculate--but regardless, he strikes me as the sort of person that will be just fine in the long-run, and not just because he's almost certainly fabulously wealthy right now.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
National Enquirer: TODD PALIN SEX SCANDAL
http://www.nationalenquirer.co...

SARAH PALIN's husband TODD is caught up in a sleazy sex scandal, The ENQUIRER has learned!

Political bloggers are digging into incredible claims that the "First Dude" - father of the couple's five children - cheated on his wife with a female massage therapist who was busted for prostitution!

Normally I view the Enquirer as total BS but they do have pretty good track record when it comes to political sex scandals.  

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

Considering how the Palin family is nowadays
I'd say this falls more into the "celebrity sex scandals" category than the "political sex scandal" category.

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
How's that old saying?
A broken clock is right twice a day. If you accuse every politician on a sex scandal you'll get at least one right. As much as I loathe Palin, this is utter nonsense
[ Parent ]
I hate to be in the posistion of defending the Enquirer....
.... but they have nailed more than one major politico. Besides Edwards you youngsters may have forgotten they got Gary Hart back in 1988.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D...

Still probably BS but I don't think you can dismiss it out of hand.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Here's how much I care









[ Parent ]
agreed.


CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Thirded.


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
South Windsor Town Council
Last night, the Democrats picked a replacement for a departing Democrat on the Council.  Said replacement will stand for general re-election in November; I think the terms are four years with elections in pre-presidntial years (i.e. mod 3).

This is significant since the Democrats currently control the Town Council 5-4, having flipped it back in 2007 from R control 6-3.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

Where or what is South Windsor?
Don't mean to sounds insensitive, but I have never even heard of that town. Are you from there?

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)
[ Parent ]
It's near the capital Hartford.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S...

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Yes.
I live here.  U.S. House district 1, State Senate district 3, State Assembly district 14.  This is also why I liveblogged (or attempted to do so) the race for the combined Windsor/East Windsor/South Windsor probate judgeship back in November.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Omaha Mayor Recall election
I haven't heard much about this, but this Tuesday the Democratic Mayor of Omaha, Jim Suttle, will have his fate decided in a recall election.  

The mayor's critics have accused him of financial mismanagement. In its recall petition, the Mayor Suttle Recall Committee cited "excessive taxes, broken promises and union deals that cost taxpayers millions and threaten Omaha's economic future."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/...

This'll be an interesting one to watch.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


Oh lord
Those criticisms seem tea flavored. How strong are Republicans in Omaha?

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
Survey
USA and Field Poll clash in Berkeley about who was the better pollster during the California gubernatorial race.

http://blogs.sacbee.com/capito...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

AZ-08
Jesse Kelly's reaction when he heard that Giffords might be forced to give up her seat, "I can run again so soon? Hallelujah!" (He didn't really say that but he sent his lawyers snooping around to see if that would happen and if there would be a special election to fill her seat.)

Dirtbag.

http://thinkprogress.org/2011/...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

Don't worry
If there is an election in this district, and Gifford's is not running, I'm sure Tim Bee and Jonathon Paton will keep Kelly out of Congress. No way two childhood friends (and an ex-boyfriend) of Gifford's would let him near congress.  
[ Parent ]
ugh
Jesse Kelly is a thug. I hope he runs against Giffords, loses 72-28 or so, and withdraws permanently from public life.  

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
What a waste of sperm
Though I think GOPVoter is right, if she did end up resigning her seat, Paton, Bee, or someone else she's on good terms with personally would probably step in and try to be the adult if Kelly or others got too bombastic.  

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
Thats a new way of putting it
And almost certainly my new favorite saying.  
[ Parent ]
Question Time:
Who have been the worst statewide candidates in the the past 15 years? What defining characteristics define such candidates? Lack of charisma? Blowing a large lead? Having a strong opponent?

Also, if you have more than one suggestion rank them. I'd like to see if theirs any continuity in who people suggest.

btw, James, excellent song choice. Bandwagonesque is probably the most underrated album from the early nineties.

20, Ind, PA-14

I have
four Martha Coakley, Creigh Deeds, Meg Whitman and Joe Miller.

In Coakley's case a lack of charisma, blowing a large lead and having a strong opponent earns her this dubious honor. Also Coakley proved she couldn't withstand a tough campaign seeing her sputter out of control during the last and most competitive week of the campaign. Don't forget her numerous gaffes from claiming the terrorists were gone from Afghanistan to refusing to do the hard work of actually going out and shaking voter's hands.

Creigh Deeds suffered from a lack of charisma and idiotically thought hammering McDonnell on his college thesis for the entire campaign would of carried him to victory.

Meg Whitman suffered from running a boiler plate and empty on ideas campaign (it does not take a CEO to promise to cut taxes and spending) that made it easy for Jerry Brown to hammer away the point she was Schwarzenegger's third term more than Poizner could ever do. Also let's not forget her hard line stance on illegal immigration she took during the primary....she should of looked in her own house before saying she would crack down hard on immigration. Also she did a quick 360 degree turn on the issue during the general election trying to win over Hispanic votes. Whitman's biggest failing was thinking shoving $150 million dollars worth of TV, Radio ads and mailers down Californians throats would work.

Joe Miller, he could of cruised into the senate if he just held his head low from the primary onward. Instead he went on Face the Nation advocating privatizing social security. Then his twitter posts comparing Lisa Murkowski to a prostitute and saying he was already measuring the drapes in his future senate office. Also don't forget he rails against "big government" but he took farm subsidies and unemployment checks. Also who could forget his private security force arresting a reporter at a town hall. He could of had a senate seat, but instead he allowed Lisa Murkowski to become the first person elected via write in to the senate since Strom Thurmond.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
And
if I were to rank them (1 would be worst, 4th not as worst):

1: Joe Miller (not only pissed away a race he had in the bag but proved why the Tea Party is mocked in the liberal blogsphere and in the media.)
2: Martha Coakley (Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in Massfuckingchusetts.)
3: Meg Whitman (I wish I had $150 million to burn.)
4: Creigh Deeds (Crappy candidate in general.)

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Thanks man; glad you enjoyed!
I heartily agree -- what a performance of an amazing song from one of the best albums of the '90s.

Incidentally, the reason why I post so many (relatively) Teenage Fanclub videos here is that I'm secretly trying to turn every Swingnut into a Fannie.

[ Parent ]
Hmmm
I would say Martha Coakley but Meg Whitman spent more than New Zealand's GDP and didn't win.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
[ Parent ]
Mike Hatch
MN AG who was our Gov nominee in 2006.  He had the win cinched up and in the bag.  His LG choice then asked what E85 was to a voter who was asking their position on it, which in MN you need to know what that is.  And then when a reporter challenged Hatch on this the week or so before the election, he called her a "Republican whore/hack" depending who you ask.
[ Parent ]
Ok, what is E85?
Is it something to do with biofuels?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Its
ethanol!

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
So I was right!
I knew it sounded familiar.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Heh.
Completely off topic, but when I took the AP Environmental Science exam at the end of one year in high school, one of the essay questions involved something about man made water projects or something. The directions said we could talk about anything besides the Hoover Dam, except that they didn't refer to it as the Hoover Dam. It was called something else, which I didn't realize, so I wrote about the Hoover Dam and proudly told my teacher who liked me but also realized what an airhead I could be, what I had done. She looked at me like most people look at Palin.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Its other name is "Boulder Dam."
It was officially called that until Eisenhower changed it to give Hoover proper recognition.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
If only I had known
that at the time...haha.

No joke, I was the king of having major brain farts on big exams. I got A's every quarter in earth science but only a 73 on the Regents because, among other things, I claimed the sun rose in the west and set in the east. I got raked over the coals by my teacher for that one.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
A boondoggle for corn growers in the midwest
Or, to be more specific, welfare for ADM.  
[ Parent ]
Might I suggest
KKT.  She was the LG for a corrupt Governor, was not a good public speaker, did not excite, and allowed her opponent to paint himself as being very moderate.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
What was corrupt about Parris Glendening?
The only bad thing I remember about his tenure is his divorce and quick remarriage to one of his staffers.
[ Parent ]
Oh, it was personal troubles then.
Sorry, I didn't follow stuff like this back then, so take my "memories" with a grain of salt.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Alan Keyes
The open Senate seat was considered competitive until the primary winner stepped down when it came out that he had been dragging his wife into sex clubs. Keyes steps into the breach and proceeds to lose 70-27 while winning only 10 downstate counties against a state senator from Chicago. That is not good.  

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
He also
ran against Paul Sarbanes in 1988 and got 38%.  He's a test case in why you shouldn't run a loon in a state like IL or MD.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
He ran against Mikulski in 1992
and got 29% of the vote.  Now, he's busy going apeshit about Obama's birthplace.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Heh.
http://kaystreet.wordpress.com...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
At least
he lived in Maryland.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Well,
it was good for comedy. Some of the better laughs I've had reading about politics came from that race, which was made better by the fact that Keyes stood virtually no chance of winning.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
My take
1) Christine O'Donnell. People could say that Delaware is a Democratic state, but Coons was a bad candidate. O'Donnell just made him look very good. He really did raise new castle county taxes by 50% and he even tried to tax 911 calls. Furthermore, she raised 7 millions dollars to Chris Coons' 4.5 million (I think). Anyhow, Christine squandered that lead en route to a 17 point loss.

2)Paladino: I know it's Cuomo, strong candidate, but I thought New York state was in a fiscal mess and everybody hated Patterson. Furthermore, Republicans picked up 6 congressional seats that year.

3)Alan Schlesinger (Republican nominee for the 2006 Senate Race). He had his gambling problems, but how,as a candidate for a major party, do you only get 10 percent of the vote? Lieberman still was the ex-vice presidential nominee for the Democratic party. How do you let him pick up so many Republican votes?!?!?

4)Dan Maes. See Schlesinger, but conservatives had a conservative alternative in tancredo.

But for the all-time worst: Alvin Greene: So bad that members of his own party (congressman Clyburn) suggested he was a plant for the other party.

If I had to choose a worst house candidate: Congressman Jefferson ($ in the freezer-New Orleans) in 2006. How do you blow one of the most Democratic districts in the nation? In the nation, there was not a district as Republican as Jefferson's district was blue.  A strong candidate in Anh Cao is only part of the answer.

For the worst primary campaign candidate, there are many:
1) Congressman Castle: losing to O'Donnell
2) Congressman Arthur Davis's campaign in the Democratic Alabama governor primary.
3) Rudy Giuliani's Iowa/New Hampshire/Florida

[ Parent ]
The difference
betweem Alvin Greene and the rest of them was that Greene ended up on the ballot basically by accident, whereas people like O'Donnell were clearly voted in by choice.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
North Carolina lame duck?
I've been thinking about redistricting and just how screwed the NC Dems are, which got me wondering, does North Carolina have a lame duck session?  If so, why didn't the Dems sneak in a redistricting reform bill before they left?  Sure it would be blatantly self interested the Republicans would have screamed bloody murder, but they would be able to play the "good government" card and ultimately the public doesn't much care. Seems like someone was asleep at the switch. (Alternately its possible these things are governed by NC constitution and not so easily changed, I just don't know.)

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
Yeah, someone suggested this awhile ago
pretty sure it's in the constitution.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
That is what they should have done
For whatever reason though, they did not actually use their lame duck to give the governor a veto over redistricting.

Some user here mentioned before that Republicans always supported non-partisan redistricting, but they claimed that there wasn't enough time to do it in a lame duck. Why? I don't know.  

[ Parent ]
NC vs IL
Who is more screwed, Dems in NC or GOPers in IL? NC will likely be 10-3 GOP after '12, can Illinois match that carnage?

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
9-4 is much more likely.
10-3 will have many problems and run into legal issues.  Best case scenario is 8-5 (with Shuler being the 5th one) and this could happen in a wave election for the Dems or a recruiting fail by the GOP.  Fortunately, Dems can regain the state legislature there thanks to demographic and occupational changes (e.g. the research triangle), unlike in Alabama or Tennessee.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Oh and 13-5 in IL
Which is a bigger ratio than 9:4.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Looking over NC Senate races.
I count 4-5 that Dems can win back in 2012.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Check out this map
And tell me if NC won't be 10-3.

http://redracinghorses.com/dia...


"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
Cause it would backfire.
And yes, I'll gladly tell you it won't be 10-3 and I'll tell you till the cows come home.  That map there shifts Shuler's district from R+6 to R+7, insufficient to defeat him.  Also, it shifts McIntyre from R+5 to R+7, also insufficient to beat him.  McIntyre won 54-46 in that district in a strong GOP year and against a hyped candidate (albeit a war criminal like West).

That map you show is a DUMMYmander.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
probably not a dummymander
A dummymander usually means a bunch of X+2 or X+3 districts that all flip when the other party has a good year. He took care to make all the red districts at least R+7. That said it might be worth it for Dems to make runs at Coble and Myrick, whose districts would be much less safe and are not used to running serious campaigns.  

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
that map is 8-5 or 7-6
Miller's district goes from D+5 to R+7, a 12-point swing. In 2010 he won by 11 (55-44), which probably would have been a 13-point loss (43-56) in his proposed district. 2012 will almost certainly be better for Dems than 2010, but Miller would likely draw a better opponent and would be the underdog.

Kissell's goes from R+2 to R+8, turning his 9.4 point win into a 2.6 point loss. Replacing the 2010 electorate with the 2012 electorate helps him, and I would give him at least 50-50 to hang on.

McIntyre's goes from R+5 to R+7, turning his 7.4 point win into...a 3.4 point win. Unless he self-destructs, he should win again.

Shuler's goes from R+6 to R+7, turning his 8.6 point win into a 6.6 point win. The author thinks that his vote to keep the health care law will doom him, but it won't. Health care worked against some Dems in 2010 because it hadn't been implemented yet, and voters were confused and apprehensive about what it would do. In 2012 it will have been in effect for nearly 2 years, and Shuler will be able to defuse the issue by using concrete examples of people who were helped by it. He'll win by double digits.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
witing on implimentation
Is suicide. There are going to be 30 more votes on HCR in this congress, there is no running away from it and by the time enough portions are implemented and their effect felt enough to begin changing voters opinions on the law the election will be over.

Its ok to lose the message war on a bill that fails, but if voters are firmly against the hallmark law of your party you MUST re-fight the message battle until you win. The alternative is obliteration.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
public opinion
The public is not firmly against the law. Opposition is barely ahead of support now, and typically about 10% of people report that they are opposed to the bill because it doesn't go far enough, not because it goes too far.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

Also, if the House Republicans keep passing bills that will be dead on arrival in the Senate, the Dems will be able to ding them for just posturing and wasting time. They could try to work with the Senate to tweak the law in ways that a majority of both sides could accept, but this would send the message that they're ok with the law's basic framework and get them in trouble with their own base.  

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Newt seems to be in
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41...

ATLANTA - Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has told several prominent Republicans in his former state of Georgia that he intends to run for president in 2012, according to an online column Friday in The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

I'm not sure he stands a chance in any of the first four states (IA, NH, SC, NV), unless perhaps both Huckabee and Palin opt out (which is at least in the realm of possibility).

But he hasn't lived
in GA since he left the House.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
And?
Not sure what that has to do with anything. He's still a go to figure for many Republicans in the state, he's got offices in the state, etc.

It's not as if he vanished from the state for years and suddenly reappeared to say "hey I'm running for President"

He's still very involved in the state.

[ Parent ]
Yes, but he doesn't live there.
He lives in VA.  But it looks almost sad to see that he thinks he can win.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Win the nomination or win the Presidency?
He has a plausible chance of winning the nomination with the diverse group running, and him being less extreme than others in different ways.  Less mainstream than Romney, less teabagged than Palin, less religious than Huckabee... these are all small shades but that can make a difference as a field winnows down.  

The other thing he has going for him is I think surprisingly important... he is SURE he wants to run.  Both Palin and Huckabee have to give up a fortune to run, for however long they run.  Gingrich can start earlier and stay in longer.

It is pitiful however for him to think he has any chance of actually winning the Presidency.

[ Parent ]
I meant the presidency.
The guy has enough skeletons to stock a Halloween Party in the Playboy Mansion.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
So?
I'm still not sure what you're getting at. He's registered to vote in VA now, that's great.

He's running for President though, it's not like he's wanting to run for office in Georgia.

Here's an article from the AJC that I'd recommend reading:

http://blogs.ajc.com/political...

Here's the key part:

"Gingrich, 67, is registered to vote in Virginia, and has a Virginia driver's license. But he spent most of his adult life in Georgia, and from 1979 until 1999 - the last three years as speaker - Gingrich was a congressman from metro Atlanta.

......

"My offices are here. My grandchildren are here. I'm here regularly," Gingrich said at a Thursday news conference at his Center for Health Transformation in suburban Atlanta. "I helped create the modern Republican Party in Georgia starting in 1960. I have a certain fondness for being back in Atlanta."

Perhaps more important, fundraising for Gingrich's American Solutions organization is conducted out of Atlanta."

He might be registered to vote in VA, but his ties to GA are stronger, much stronger.

[ Parent ]
67?
so he'll be 69 when he takes office (his birthday's in june), three years younger than mccain when he ran.  yeah that makes sense...

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Well, Reagan did it.


My blog
Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
I'm just saying
That he doesn't live there and this is essentially a relocation from him from his current Fairfax, VA home.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
This is excellent news.
I'm not sure he'll be as much of a lead weight as Palin, but I don't he makes the race competitive unless unemployment is at 15 percent.

As far as his impact in the primaries, wouldn't winning at least two of them give him a pretty big leg up in the rest of them?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Gingrich reeks of Fred Thompson to me
That is, he probably garners enough votes in South Carolina to wound Huckabee and allow Romney (or any leading "moderate" candidate) to win there. It could be '08 all over again, just with Romney in McCain's shoes. I think Gingrich envisions himself as something of a consensus candidate, though - that is, someone who appeals to both the rank-and-file and the Tea Party. The thing is, Huckabee fits that bill, too, and at least he isn't completely washed-up. In all fairness, of course, I would've laughed at anyone who spoke of Dan Coats and Carol Moseley Braun making comebacks...

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Fair points.
I wonder, though, how Huckabee's past of raising taxes or and increasing or at least not refusing to cut social spending will fly with the Teabaggers, if it hasn't already been addressed. To me, it seems like they are more concerned with fiscal issues than social issues, so it's harder for him to walk back any stances they don't like, particularly since he's been in office much more recently than Gingrich. And while I don't know that much about Gingrich's actual record as opposed to what he claims to believe, I'm sure there are plenty of opinion pieces he can point where he advocates lowering taxes or something like that. His personal life is controversial, but will that be enough to sink him, assuming he can't walk it back and claim he sinned but asked for forgiveness or that it's all the liberal media's fault or some crap like that?

As far as Coats and Mosley Braun, is that anything other than being in the right election at the right time?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Dunno if Fred Thompson is an apt comparison.
I'd compare Fred Thompson more to Wesley Clarke.  He wanted to run for President but didnt want to put in the work to get it.  Got to appear in the debates and feel important but never raised the money or developped the organization necessary so that an informed voter could consider supporting him to be anything more than symbolic.

Gingrich will try and he will raise money.  But he seems to wonky for the grassroots and comes off more profesorial and intellectual than populist.  He also of course has skeletons that rather than being kept in the closet are dancing all around him.  Whether it is his repeated infidelities in his marriage or the "sellouts" while being Speaker that his rivals are going to accuse him of.  And isn't just the righties who will find fault.  He also turns off moderates.

I'll compared him instead to Phil Gramm in 1996.  Or Guiliani in 2008.  He'll raise enough money to enter campaign season with a bang and do well enough in all the contests to end it with a thud.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
Gramm?
Gingrich seems more like Gephardt circa 2004.  a politician whose only experience is in the house, well past his prime, that has the scars from leadership, but none of the advantages (if there are any).  the biggest difference is gephardt's populism.  worst still for newt is that his only campaign experience is running for a safe house district.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
I look forward to him defending...
I look forward to him defending the sanctity of his third marriage and arguing to exclude an entire class of people from such commitments, lest they "destroy" the institution.

I'm guessing the fireworks in the Republican presidential primary will be epic, especially if Palin gets in.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
An interesting profile on Carol Moseley Braun.
http://www.suntimes.com/news/e...

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
Willard Mitt Romney wins NH straw poll.
He gets 35% with Pon Raul in second with 11%.
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
I almost feel bad for the Republicans...
... arguably their two best candidates, Thune and Huntsman, are the two people who got zero votes!

What a screwed up party.

[ Parent ]
I love how Donald Trump got more votes than Thune and Huntsman
n/t

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
I noticed that too
Some people have floated the idea of Ambassador Huntsman running in 2016 as a Democrat rather than as a Republican. It would be interesting to explore whether that would be a viable option. I tend to think the Republicans will be suitably chastened after President Obama destroys whoever they put up next year, but who knows.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Huntsman
He has the potential to be this country's David Cameron and lead a modernized "new" Republican party once they get tired of running on backward-looking right-wing nationalism and losing elections. That isn't in the cards for 2012 but might be in 2016 or 2020. As you say I think it will take at least one humbling in a presidential election.

I think it's highly unlikely that he runs as a Dem. He won't switch parties unless the Reeps move so much further to the right that he can plausibly quit in disgust, and even then the only way I can see him winning a Dem primary is if Dems are so shell-shocked that they see their only chance as nominating someone from the conservative end of their own party despite his Republican past. For either of these things to happen, Obama would have to get blown out in 2012 by an extremist Republican (Palin?) which is implausible barring another severe recession.  

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
That would be great.
We need the GOP to come back from the bedlam.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Anyone notice
how poorly Mitch Daniels performs? I know he's relatively unknown outside of political circles, but I figured a bunch of party insiders would know and like him. They are, after all, the kinds of people who are always dropping his name as a potential nominee some day.  

NY-01/NY-19
[ Parent ]
Mittens has been
frequenting the NH circuit.  He's got way more face time with them.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Neither public surveys nor straw polls accurately gauge the strength of some of these people......
People like Daniels and Thune, and even Pawlenty and Barbour, are complete unknowns who could still get traction once voters start paying attention.  Don't get me wrong, I don't see almost any of these people as a serious threat to Obama.  And in particular I don't see someone like Barbour winning the nomination...but he can raise money and has the profile to establish a few beachheads in culturally conservative states, just like Huckabee who did it without raising much money, so should be taken as seriously as Huckabee.

The only news from the NH straw poll is another data point that Palin isn't who the Rethugs want.  With 100% name recognition and as the last VP nominee, she is an also-ran in public surveys and now in a straw poll.  The secondary quasi-news is that Romney isn't hurting from his '08 loss, when he led big in NH for many months before imploding the final month.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Daniels
He has not been campaigning in NH like the others. This is worse for Thune and Santorum, who have been in NH often.  
[ Parent ]
Thune can't win or even get second in NH
his best bet is a third, or close fourth in NH.  He's too unknown and the NH electorate is far too different than his home of South Dakota.  his only way to win is the dubya route of Iowa then SC.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
While the effective MoE from a straw poll
is larger than the MoE of the youth vote in a SUSA poll...

Ron Paul now gets to depict himself as the main alternative to Mittens in NH....

And Michelle Bachmann nearly outpolled Palin a la Rouge.

[ Parent ]
While the effective MoE from a straw poll
is larger than the MoE of the youth vote in a SUSA poll...

Ron Paul now gets to depict himself as the main alternative to Mittens in NH....

And Michelle Bachmann nearly outpolled Palin a la Rouge.

[ Parent ]
If anyone is interested
I calculated the 2010 Arizona Gubernatorial race by Congressional District and compared it to a couple of other elections. I figured this was a bit short for a diary, but I apologize in advance because it's rather long for a comment.

AZ-01 Brewer 55.41-41.14
Goddard performed 3.11 points worse than Obama
Kirkpatrick performed 2.54 points better than Goddard.
Gosar performed 5.76 points worse than Brewer.

AZ-02 Brewer 63.05-33.75
Goddard perfomed 4.32 points worse than Obama
Thrasher peformed 2.72 points worse than Goddard.
Franks performed 1.77 points better than Brewer.

AZ-03 Brewer 55.81-41.13
Goddard performed 1.21 points worse than Obama
Hulburd performed 0.05 points worse than Goddard.
Quayle performed 3.66 points worse than Brewer.

AZ-04 Goddard 67.55-26.78
Goddard performed 1.82 points better than Obama
Pastor performed 0.71 points worse than Goddard.
Contreras performed 0.72 points better than Brewer.

AZ-05 Brewer 52.42-44.19
Goddard performed 2.98 points worse than Obama
Mitchell performed 1.01 points worse than Goddard.
Schweikert performed 0.48 points better than Brewer.

AZ-06 Brewer 62.19-33.57
Goddard performed 3.98 points worse than Obama
Schneider performed 4.50 points worse than Goddard.
Flake performed 4.13 points better than Brewer.

AZ-07 Goddard 56.07-40.83
Goddard performed 1.12 points worse than Obama
Grijalva performed 5.91 points worse than Goddard.
McClung performed 3.33 points better than Brewer.

AZ-08 Brewer 54.03-43.46
Goddard performed 2.97 points worse than Obama
Giffords performed 5.23 points better than Goddard.
Kelly performed 6.80 points worse than Brewer.

Biggest overperformers relative to Goddard: Gabrielle Giffords (+5.23), Ann Kirkpatrick (+2.54)
Biggest underperformers relative to Goddard: Raul Grijalva (-5.91), Rebecca Schneider (-4.50)

Biggest overperformers relative to Brewer: Jeff Flake (+4.13), Ruth McClung (+3.33)
Biggest underperformers relative to Brewer: Jesse Kelly (-6.80), Paul Gosar (-5.76)

The two most important take-home messages from this data are that, 1. AZ-01 is now voting in state elections like it does in federal elections (it used to be somewhat more democratic at the state level), which needless to say is bad and 2. AZ Dems are still doing just fine or even better with the Hispanics who do actually show up to vote.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

I just can't understand
why Hispanics didn't show up to vote in Arizona this year, ESPECIALLY in AZ-07 with a Congressional candidate unapologetic in defending them.  
[ Parent ]
If you really want to feel appalled and confused
I've been messing around with Dave's Redistricting App now that he's added American Community Survey 5-year block-group estimates to Arizona and other states. Specifically, I've drawing all the legislative districts in Arizona to get an idea of how they've changed since 2000 and what redistricting may have in store. There's a legislative district in Mesa that has seen an explosion in Hispanic growth and the most dramatic white flight in the state, such that it has shifted from 30% Hispanic in 2000 to 43% Hispanic in the ACS Survey. Think that district has become dramatically more Democratic?

Not really. This would be LD-18, and while I think the area has trended a bit more Democratic since 2000, but it's still a Republican stronghold that comfortably elects of all possible people Russell Pearce, the guy who authored SB 1070 and "pals around" with Neo-Nazis. These numbers are on another computer which I don't have in front of me, but I think Obama barely cleared 40% of the vote here. To add to the confusion, this district contains most of the majority-white portion of Mesa that is in AZ-05, which Obama actually won.

Even if a lot of those Hispanics are middle-class and more open to supporting Republicans (and I don't think that's the case here because we're talking about Mesa's urban core)... what the hell? I think it's a combination of perhaps a more sizable chunk of the Hispanic population here than the statewide average being non-citizens and East Valley Democrats having no idea how to reach out to this group. Still, when you know that the whites on the side of this district that touches Tempe are purple to light blue and the whites on the side of this district that touches eastern Mesa are incredibly Republican, you have to wonder if any of the Hispanics in the middle are voting at all...

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

[ Parent ]
heh
Those are some sorry numbers for Grijalva. On the red team, I would say that Quayle did the worst adjusting for strength of opposition. Giffords was an extremely tough opponent, and Kirkpatrick was at least a sitting representative. In contrast Hulburd was just a random rich guy.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Quayle
What's particularly weak about his performance is that Brewer's show in AZ-03 was a bit underwhelming anyway. AZ-03 is usually 3-5 points more Republican than the state overall, but Brewer only did about 1.5 points better there than she did statewide. You might be able to chock some of this up to Goddard's tenure as Mayor of Phoenix in the 1980s, but either way you have Quayle lagging several points behind a candidate who already isn't quite meeting expectations. It definitely raises questions about whether Quayle could survive in a district that could be a few points more Democratic after redistricting when the wind is at his opponent's back instead of his.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
agree
If the new 9th district ends up being east valley/Pinal, Quayle and/or Schweikert will likely end up with a much less friendly district.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Yeah
And Schweikert may be able to hang (he's been elected countywide and absolutely destroyed local institution Harry Mitchell in a district several points to the left of Quayle's), but I doubt Quayle could hold up to any real pressure.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
Schweikert
Do you think he has statewide office in his future? He impresses me the most out of the three freshmen in Arizona. Assuming he can hold on to his redesigned House seat, do you see him contending for Governor '14, or Senate in '16 or '18?

Flake and Giffords are the only others in the delegation that I think could win statewide. I think Flake would run if Kyl retired this cycle, and obviously it's too soon to tell what Giffords' future will be, God bless her.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Yes
We'll see how he deals with redistricting (another problem he could face is that he lives in the northeastern edge of his district in Fountain Hills, and depending om where AZ-09 ends up it's very possible that he winds up having to either move or run in a very different district), but he seems like out all of the Republican representatives the most like to satisfy conservatives in the primary but appeal to moderates in the general. Plus he's already been elected county-wide in Maricopa Co., so he's won an election for a jurisdiction with 60% of the state's residents already. A 2016 Schweikert-Giffords race for McCain's seat could be very interesting, particularly if Arizona has inched a couple of ticks to the left and is a full-blown purple state by that point.

I did mention down-thread that I think Flake's immigration stance would probably be too much to overcome in a Republican primary in Arizona at this point.


22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, what was that about?
Someone here referred to Harry Mitchell as his district's personal Jesus or something, and then he losses by a pretty big margin.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
2008 v 2010
Mitchell is a popular former mayor of Tempe.

2008 was a blue wave year, and Mitchell beat Schweikert with 55.0% of the two-party vote.

2010 was a red wave year, and Schweikert beat Mitchell with 54.6% of the two-party vote.

From 2008 to 2010, Mitchell's vote dropped from 149k to 92k and Schweikert's dropped from 122k to 110k.

Of Mitchell's missing 57k voters, I would guess that the vast majority just didn't show up as opposed to switching their votes to Schweikert. I think it would be interesting to do a poll for this race and other rematches.


41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Quite frankly...
I doubt Quayle will even make it through the primary in 2012. He barely won against an extremely fractured field, and I doubt he's going to be able to rehabilitate his image over the course of one term.
[ Parent ]
It is a very interesting work

I like, thank you very much.

It seems so obvious what the succession of McCain and Kyl can be between Napolitano, Giffords, Brewer and Flake (maybe Quayle if Brewer fail).

[ Parent ]
mm I read bad :)

I read Quayle performing better than Brewer. Well if it is worse, they are more doubts if Brewer fail.
[ Parent ]
Brewer is 66
And allegedly in much worse health than she lets on. Unless Kyl does retire and she runs this year, a Senate candidacy probably isn't in the cards.
Secretary of State Ken Bennett, Corporation Commissioner Brenda Burns, former Rep. John Shadegg (he's getting up there in age too though) or current Rep. David Schweikert could make strong candidates for the Republicans in 2012 or down the line.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
Yes I have some doubt about Brewer

Like you can see in my comment I have some doubt about Brewer. If Kyl retires I would be not surprised if Brewer run. Her ego seems higher than her health troubles and she show wish of fight in 2012. If Kyl continues, like I expect, Brewer would have the troubles of age (she is so close in age to Kyl) and of health.
[ Parent ]
AZ Reeps
Suppose Kyl does not run in 2012:

Flake would probably be the Reeps' best bet in the general, and should clean up among the state's numerous semi-libertarian independents. He might have problems in the primary, as he actually won a bigger percentage in the general than in the primary. Brewer will be 68 and has had health problems and I don't see her moving to DC at this point. Quayle is just weak, he squeaked through a 10-way primary with 23% on name recognition alone and then seriously underperformed in the general. John Shadegg would be a better bet if he decides to go back to DC. He'll be 63 in 2012 but doesn't have any obvious health issues and could easily serve 2 terms.

I think former state school superintendent Lisa Keegan might be a good dark horse candidate. I worked for the AZ legislature in the mid-90s and she was considered the rising star of state politics. She hasn't run for anything since 1998 but would still be only 53.

I agree on the Dems, there isn't much of a bench there.

 

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Flake's achilles heel
is comprehensive immigration reform. He supports it, and that would cause him massive problems in the Republican primary. That's probably the worst issue to be left-curious on in Arizona Republican circles right now. Remember, that's the only reason that he had a fairly close call in the primary last year from a whodat. If he could get AZ Republicans to get over that issue, then outstanding for all involved. I just don't think they'll be ready to ditch the rabid nativism by 2012.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
I think Flake can be strong in some years

Just that weakness can make him one of the few electable republicans in some years.
[ Parent ]
Yes, in the general
But in 2012, in a Republican primary, in of all places Arizona, that's a major problem. You have to survive a primary to enter a general election.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
Flake again
The funny thing is that Flake is the most consistent small-government conservative in Congress with the possible exception of Ron Paul, so you'd think he would be a tea party favorite. Instead, they don't like him because he isn't hostile enough toward the people they really resent. I've thought for a while that the tea party is more motivated by reactionary nationalism than by libertarianism, and this is some evidence of that.

When I try to play the next few years out in my head Flake loses the 2012 primary to Russell Pearce who then gets blown out by Napolitano, and finally moves up to the Senate in 2016 or 2018 depending on who he's up against.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Louisiana special elections
Bishop wins Rep. Richmond's HD-101 in all-Dem race, GOP easily picks up SD-22, tie the state senate, could have a majority very soon, with possible party switches and another special election soon.
http://staticresults.sos.louis...

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
Ah
You beat me to it!  
[ Parent ]
Possible?
I think that it's stopped for now.  There's few others who could.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Republicans Tie LA State Sen
Tonight, in SD 22, D turned R state Rep. Fred Mills won the special election to replace D turned I Sen. Troy Hebert. This win brings the Senate to a 19-19 tie with one vacancy. Mills won with 60% of the vote, avoiding a run-off. In HD 101, Cedric Richmond's former seat, Democrat Wesley T. Bishop beat two other Dems to win with 75% of the vote.
The Senate will likely go Republican for the first time since Reconstruction on Feb. 19, when Republican state Rep. Jonathan Perry is likely to beat Democrat Nathan Granger in SD 26, for the seat of former Sen. Nick Gautreaux (D).  
And yet it will mean little.
Besides, if the Governor did not have the power to decide committee chairmanships and whatnot, not as many would have defected (such as Alario).  Other than that, their voting record will not change.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Forgive me, but
I get the feeling that you are bragging at the start of that last paragraph.  Besides, don't presume to know the results of a special election ahead of time.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I could also
go into how CA has had a full Democratic sweep of all statewide offices for the first time since 1861 or how the HI State Senate has only 1 Republican left, but I choose not to.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
But that nearly happened 3 months in California and Hawaii
What's happening in Louisiana is occurring tonight and then in February.
[ Parent ]
I know
but I just get the feeling that he's bragging and that rubs me the wrong way.  Besides, if it doesn't happen in February, it will happen in November because of downballot pull and the rearranging of seats for the first time since Hurricane Katrina.  I accept that and I don't need reminding every time something comes up there.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Besides.
As I said, it means little.  In fact, it will decrease the tensions that has rocked both wings of the Democratic Party there.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
And as I said
don't presume the results in February.  I get the feeling that Mills would have won anyway no matter his party and I hope that is the case in SD-26.  Finally, I don't care much for this special elections there.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Side note:
I said that I can be thin-skinned.  That is what is showing right now and I feel slightly ruffled.  I can't explain why, but things like these tend to affect me more than they should.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I don't know where LA SD 26 is politically
But this article http://www.2theadvocate.com/ne... suggests the R candidate is already a state rep, and the D is a "police juror" (whatever that is -- might be a sherrif) - in CD-7, with a PVI of R+14.

so unless there's evidence that the D has some strengths (or the R has some weaknesses) that are known by locals

It is fair to think the R would be favored in that special election.

[ Parent ]
Ok.
And I'm sorry for obsessing on this.  I hope we're fine.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Info on what a police juror is
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P...

Basically it's a member of a council elected by the voters.  

And GOPVOTER is correct that the GOP is favored.  This is a very conservative district (John Kennedy beat Mary Landrieu here) and the Republican is a state rep, which I'm betting gives him a lot more name recognition than a police juror in one parish in a multi-parish district.  Obviously strange things can happen especially with special elections, and at least this time Democrats are running a candidate with a pulse.  But I'm pretty pessimistic that the Louisiana State Senate will be Democratic when all is said and done.    

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Well, rither Mills is very talented
or his main opponrmt (also state Representative) is not. To win about 60 - 20 in a battle if 2 elected officials, having their own political base, is a sort of achievement
[ Parent ]
He was very well known
He stars in the commercials for his pharmacy, so he was already known all over the district. He also significantly outraised Champagne. He is an ally of Bobby Jindal and Scott Angelle, and it is believed that Jindal helped him behind the scenes.  
[ Parent ]
Thanks!
Well, looking at who supports whom Mills seems a more pragmatist to me.. That's, probably, not bad
[ Parent ]
Agreed.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Probably
I supported Champagne, and was not a fan of Mills. But, oh well.  
[ Parent ]
That happens)))
I could never understand why Champagne was Democrat from the beginning. Even in 2007 she ran on very conservative platform.))
[ Parent ]
Kentucky - SoS
I'm surprised that Alison Grimes recent announcement to run for Sec of State in Kentucky hasn't received any attention on here...

http://www.alison2011.com/ if you're curious

this smells...


18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Ha.
If she's anything like her dad I'd vote Republican in a heartbeat.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
What is Elaine Walker's chance of winning the primary?


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
I
would assume she's favored with incumbency and Beshear's backing.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Former MI-Gov Jennifer Granholm Plans
I was wrong.  I really thought she was going to do something else...

Former Gov. Jennifer Granholm and her husband, Dan Mulhern, will teach at the University of California-Berkeley, and together they'll write a book about her experience leading Michigan during one of its worst economic episodes, according to Politico.com today.

The two will continue to live in Michigan, however, and are searching for a permanent home in the state, where she was governor for eight years and attorney general for four.

Since leaving the governor's residence in Lansing they have rented in the Lansing area, where their son, Jack, attends middle school.

Democrat Granholm, 51, also will be a paid contributor to NBC's "Meet the Press." She and Mulhern have joined the Keppler's Speakers Bureau for speaking engagements, she told Politico.com in an interview.

...

She said she was not approached for a job by President Barack Obama's administration, and doesn't plan to run for office again, adding, "I'm done with that," she said. "I'm ready for a new thing."

http://www.freep.com/article/2...

I'm still of the mind that she'll run for the Senate whenever Levin bows out, regardless of what she's saying, now.  BTW, for anyone wondering, this is her alma matter, and she grew up in California.

Ugh
An incredibly unpopular former Governor running for Senate does not sound like a good idea to me.
[ Parent ]
VA-Sen
Again hearing that Jim Webb (D-VA) may be named SecDef when Gates steps down sometime this year.

Most interesting tidbit to come out now is that based on VA state law there would be an appointed Senator, BUT that person would only hold the office until a Special Election this November.

What effect a US Senate Special Election would have on the state legislative races is anyone's guess. I have a source in the Governor's office who confirmed earlier this year that the WH had inquired into who McDonnell would pick. As I understand it the Governor refused to discuss what he would do in a hypothetical case, my guy seemed to think this would be a deal breaker - his words were "They didn't like our answer".

However, if we are only talking about a 6 month placeholder (although I think it's nearly certain McDonnell would pick Allen, though someone like Tom Davis may appeal if Allen want to be free to campaign full time) the WH may be more intersted in getting the guy they want at DoD rather than protecting one highly unreliable vote in the Senate.

Now who would run from the Dem side in a '11 Special? Seems it would be very hard for Kaine to step down at the DNC and ramp up a campaign in short order, but it would be a great opportunity for Gerry Connolly to take a free shot at the upper chamber...baring that I'd say Periello is a good bet, or maybe the Other Moran Brother.  

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

I
think he would appoint a temporary dem placeholder. He would look bipartisan and it would create an opening for his party that might not happen without a promise of a dem. Webb isn't that unreliable of vote, he's much better than Nelson and others. I also think Kaine would jump at a shot for the Senate, I don't care what he has said and the Senate is an upgrade from the DNC. If not him then I think Connelly would take the free shot, what does he have to lose?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
While I doubt that McDonnell would do that
I'd guess there are some older DINO politicos who voted for McDonnell, perhaps some of Harry Byrd's young'uns.
[ Parent ]
My take
from my conversation with McDonnell's staffer (over beer and pool, not a conference table) was that they weren't willing to discuss ANY conditions to Webb being nominated for SecDef, I don't think this is pragmantic but ideological - "I, as Governor, will not make deals with the powers vested in me by the Constitution of the Commonwealth"

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
I think that
if they can't get McDonnell to nominate a Dem placeholder, they will not nominate Webb, leaving him or Kaine to run.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I think McDonnell would play ball
He probably has Senatoria (or higher) ambitions of his own, and would want to look bipartisan. What you would probably see is a moderate Independent who would caucus with Democrats and vote with them most, but not all, of the time. Similar to Bonnie Newman, the NH Independent that Lynch would have appointed to the Senate if Gregg had taken the Commerce job.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
I don't see him picking a Dem
I would not be surprised if he did select a placeholder moderate like Tom Davis, but a Democrat? The only case I can recall of this kind of thing being discussed was Lynch agreeing (theoretically) to select a GOPer to replace Judd Gregg, but even that fell through.

What was the last time a Governor selected a Senator of the opposite party not dictated by state law? (Some states stipulate the governor must pick a relacement of the same party as the departing Senator).

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
But
if McDonald plays hard ball then Obama might not appoint Webb and there might not be a special election that could benefit his party. He has factor these things in and I think he'd appoint an older conservative dem, knowing it benefits him and his party.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Good point
but I think McDonnell is unwilling to even discuss it and gave the WH a "Do as you will" answer.

I'm not 100% sure McDonnell even wants Webb out of the Senate, we all assume having a special election would be good for the GOP, and while it certainly would be for the NRSC, the Governor may have a FAR different view of what having Allen vs Kaine (or Periello or Connolly) would mean for the November Virginia legislative elections.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
My guess is
they would not want a special election to drive turnout in Northern Virginia. There are several House freshman that the Republicans are going to have to protect, like Jim LeMunyon, Barbara Comstock, Richard Anderson, and Tag Greason, as well as incumbents like Tom Rust and Dave Albo, who are in districts that Webb won in 2006. It might help them pick up some of the rural seats, but I'd say the net effect would be negative for the Republicans.
[ Parent ]
Good point.
I'm personally hoping for Obama to appoint Ray Mabus or Clinton.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Good Choice
Maybus is a team player who'd fill in well, I've heard mixed thing about his tenure as SecNav, but anyone who is too popular probably isn't doing there job.

Best part of this would be the probability of appointing former Representative Gene Taylor as SecNav. I can't think of anyone in the county better suited or better prepared for the job.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
Sheila Johnson, perhaps?
I don't think she can outright win statewide, so she'd be an ideal temporary placeholder.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Heh, no.
She was outraged when McDonnell (whom she endorsed) wanted to set aside a day to honor the confederacy.  Now she's disillusioned with the whole process.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Other Moran Brother?
Which one? Jim is too liberal, and Brian is currently running the state party into the ground.
[ Parent ]
Into the ground?
What the heck are you talking about?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
He was elected state party chair recently
despite the fact that he has a job as a lobbyist for the for-profit education industry, and the company he works for is suing the Obama administration to try and prevent new rules from being implemented. And he's already put his foot in his mouth once already.
[ Parent ]
Gossip is nonsense.
Kaine said he'll run again and he is undoubtedly close to Webb and Warner.  Also, in a brief interview, he sounded like he was leaning towards running.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
BlueVA has another take.
Back in December 2010, Mark Plotkin asked Webb whether he'd be interested in replacing Bob Gates as Defense Secretary. Webb didn't give a "Shermanesque" response, but he said he was happy where he was, was not looking for a "trade" to Defense Secretary, and loves working on the "breadth" of issues (economics, criminal justice reform, etc.) he gets to deal with in the Senate.

Undoubtedly there will be whispers that Webb would be considered for the job due to his extensive military background.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
Webb is lobbing HARD for SecDef
I work at DoD and the buzz in the Pentagon is very real, it's also very much a topic of discussion among several HASC members. As I mentioned I heard from a reliable source that the WH has talked to the VAGov office about the possibility.

The better question, and one I haven't heard answered properly in a venue I'm familiar with, is what kind of SecDef would Webb be and how does that serve the administrations goals with regard to Iraq, Afghanistan and overal defense policy (and budgets!)? As great as Webb is on defense issues I'm not sold on him as the heir to Gates budget/policy work or as a manager (his tenure at Navy was, shall we say, confrontational)

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
I'm sure gossip is real.
Doesn't mean it will happen.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I'm sure he is lobbying for the job
and I don't think the electoral political considerations will doom his nomination, but I'm not sure if ultimately Webb is a good fit for the job. RCP pointed out that he's not a good fit for Obama's cabinet in terms of his background (though I would list that as a asset), they rather charitably refer to him as "short tempered and difficult to get along with".

In the end I think they'll pick someone who is much more dependable and team oriented, the last think Obama wants in the middle of his re-elect is a loose wire at DoD, they want complete control over messaging, especially on an issue as prone to hyperbole as the GWOT, and everyone would be better off with a SecDef better able to talk amicably with Buck McKeon and Todd Akin as with Carl Levin & Daniel Akaka.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
Electoral political considerations should doom his nomination
It'll be hard enough to win the seat with Obama on the ballot without risking it a November too early. Maybe if McDonnell agreed to pick a Dem that wouldn't run until next year but sounds like a no-goer on all counts.
[ Parent ]
How much does the WH care?
I'm really not sure the political considerations would submarine Webb's nomination, especially if he's told them already he doesn't plan to run again (which would seem a logical step in lobbying for the job, though he might be holding back on that nugget until he's sure he's on the short list).

Having seen the way the Clinton & Bush WHs operated on this stuff I honestly don't think they would hesitate for a second IF they decided that Webb was there guy. If it would flip control of the Senate then sure, but the difference between 53 & 52 in the Senate is not nearly as important (to the WH) as having the personnel they want in key cabinet posts. It's not like anyone at the WH lost sleep over giving the Governorship of Arizona to the GOP...

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
The White House should care
If they want a Democratic Senate should the president be re-elected.
[ Parent ]
On the other hand
If I was political director at the WH my response would be;

1. Control of the Senate is going to have more to do with how McCaskill, Nelson, Brown, Stabenow & Tester do than if Kaine (or Perriello or Connolly) runs for Senate in '11 or '12.

2. Having Obama re-elected and thus keeping control of the Executive Branch is far more important than control of the Senate.

3. Being able to properly manage and message happenings at DoD will do far more to preserve the Dems majority in the Senate than 1 seat being open in '11 or '12.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
You can't pick and choose like that
It is highly debatable which order you place them in terms of vulnerability but an open seat certainly would go ahead of Stabenow. Worse case would be a Republican incumbent having won this November. The margin or error is far too high. I would also argue the selection of Webb and Webb alone would be highly unlikely to make any difference to the result of the election.
[ Parent ]
The Truth
would be "Because We Want To", but the answer Brian Moran & Patty Murray would get would be some version of what I layed out.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
I don't doubt that
But I think it would be a mistake.
[ Parent ]
Even if true
it confirms that Webb is interested in public service.

If procurement reform is the goal, confrontation may be necessary. To some extent, I think it worked for Rumsfeld.

As for clues on what Webb would do, see his response to the '07 SOTU (I linked to a youtube of it sometime in the past few days.)

[ Parent ]
Alexi
Giannoulias reflects on the emotional toll his narrow loss to Mark Kirk and the bruising campaign took on him:

http://www.dailyherald.com/art...


The race, he said, also took its toll on his relationship with fiance Tara Flocco, a Chicago philanthropist. The pair have put their wedding off for the time being.

"I tried so hard (to shield her)," Giannoulias said. "I got some death threats, which, a lot of that stuff was really tough to see and feel. We're trying to figure it out. ... Relationships are tough as is, before adding this stuff."

And if you wondering if he's going to run for some office in 2012, he's not going to. He's either going to go into teaching or something in the private sector. And he's writing a book about his bid for the US Senate.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

He doesn't
seem like a bad guy, just a mediocre to poor campaigner if memory serves me correctly.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I think I would've voted for LeAlan Jones, but...
Giannoulias always struck me as a very charismatic, personable man. His ties to Broadway Bank did irk me, as they clearly did the Illinois electorate. But, Kirk was hardly a stellar candidate himself, and, if forced to choose between only them, I probably would've sided with Giannoulias. Jones, to me, just seemed like an ideal opportunity to pull a rarity (for me, at least) and bolt third-party. He seemed clean and good on the issues, and I would've voted to Whitney atop the Green ticket, too.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Whitney.
My sister knows him. They've worked on many of the same local charities. She aid he's the most annoying person you could ever meet. He thinks he knows the answer to everything and lets you know it. She also told me he's very loud and a bit erratic. She couldn't believe how good he did in 06.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
NJ-Sen: New York Jets owner Woody Johnson mulling run
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 208 comments

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