Nice Map!

Minor question. Why on this map (and on the current Arizona map) does Trent Frank's district zigzag into the 1st to take up a portion of that district? I heard it had something to do with Native American Reservation law or something.

19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem

---

by: knickelbein5 @ Fri Jan 21, 2011 at 06:17:50 AM UTC

Two different tribes don't want to be in the same district...

...at least that's what I've read in previous AZ redistricting diaries on this site.  Unfortunately I don't know my Arizona geography well enough to recall which two.

---

by: JimM @ Fri Jan 21, 2011 at 06:23:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

its

navajo in gosar
hopi in franks

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

---

by: jncca @ Fri Jan 21, 2011 at 06:28:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I really wish

they get rid of that extension into the tiny piece of land for Trent Franks' district. It's a bloody eyesore.

---

by: Sheamus O'Range @ Mon Jan 24, 2011 at 03:26:53 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The Navajo vs. Hopi dispute

is the reason the 2nd makes that jog into northeastern AZ. Basically, because the Navajo and Hopi peoples have been on bad terms since before they were even in the United States, and many of their current disputes are tied up in the federal law (chiefly border and resource allocation disputes), both tribes have requested that their land be placed in separate congressional districts so that they may seek redress of their grievances through different avenues.  

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

---

by: Nico @ Mon Jan 24, 2011 at 05:31:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well

Here's hoping they resolve their grievances in our lifetime, so we can see a district that actually looks normal.

---

by: Sheamus O'Range @ Mon Jan 24, 2011 at 13:08:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

interesting

I made the 9th a southern/western Phoenix fringe exurban district, and it came out barely majority-minority at 46% white. Your 9th might be more favorable to Dems, although I suspect that exurban Hispanics are more likely to vote than central-city Hispanics are.

41, Ind, CA-05

---

by: sacman701 @ Fri Jan 21, 2011 at 07:12:16 AM UTC

Here goes my thoughts on AZ

1. We had a post earlier this month on CA and yes because many hispanics are not citizens and their registration numbers are lower and their voting numbers are lower you have to account for that.  In CA and most states the % of voting in hispanic communities is 50% or lower then white voters.  

2. The current seats are CD4 with 58% hispanic and 29% white.  Plus CD7 is 50% hispanic and 38% white.  Any decrease in those numbers would a retrogression and I might add recent elections show you why.  One seat of numbers makes for a safe seat and another seat set of numbers does not.  The bar I believe is set higher for a third seat because you need to assure what you have already set aside is not undone.

3. For what is the proper standard for a minority majority hispanic seat.  The courts have not made that clear but there are two numbers.  The % of hispanic voters and the % of white voters.  A third attempt at a minority majority seat in AZ would be a commission or legislative seat creation so their is wide leeway.  They can do what they want.  A court will not order a 50% hispanic seat because the % of actual voters does not make it a minority/majority seat.  So will the commission do it?  That's a different question.  

I believe the commission will keep CD4 at 58%hispanic and 29% white.  I also believe CD7 will be brought up to that level as its clear Congressman G is not able to lock up his seat.  Those two moves preclude the creation of a third minority majority seat in AZ.

---

by: rdelbov @ Fri Jan 21, 2011 at 14:02:52 PM UTC

Interesting

But if I've said it once, I've said it a million times; Section 5 pre-clearance is absolutely and completely irrelevant to redistricting. Section 2 covers redistricting, and every last jurisdiction in the country is subject to Section 2 pre-clearance.

Now, with that in mind, this map is kind of a wet dream for Republicans and almost looks like a Republican gerrymander in a lot of ways. Grijalva's in a best a 50-50 district for one, and one in which the majority of voters are white. That section of Pinal County you've cut through has grown much whiter and heavily Republican, but you cut out his portion of Maricopa County, which is getting more Hispanic. He would have lost to McClung last November in that district. The new district also looks relatively close to 50-50 and cuts through some very conservative swath. Some of that is because there are a lot of somewhat more conservative middle-class Hispanics, so if they were to select, say Republican State Rep. Steve Montenegro as their representative then that's not as big of a problem as all the gringos in AZ-07 going gaga for McClung and usurping Hispanic choice down there.

Also, do keep an eye on splitting up American Indian reservations, as you cannot do that in Arizona. I only see one problem though (Tohono O'Oodham) and it's easy to fix.

I do have to say that while I highly doubt the commission will be compelled to create a third Hispanic majority district, You did a pretty good job of keeping communities of interest together and presented a more or less viable way in which the commission could go about that.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

---

by: Nico @ Fri Jan 21, 2011 at 16:00:06 PM UTC

I might suggest

that redistricting under sec 2 is subject to federal law and therefore could be subject to federal court action from either DOJ or individuals but is not subject to pre-clearance from Maine to CA.  I fully concede that the DOJ will likely look at every legislative & congressional map for VRA claims.  I might add that every redistricting lawyer from either party will look it as well.  There has even been a lawsuit filed in Minnesota requesting that the 2012 congressional elections not be run using the 2010 maps.  Talk about jumping the gun!!!  We don't even official 2010 census info for drawing maps yet.  So nothing is likely to avoid scrunity in 2011-2012.

I can't predict how AZ will draw its 2011 map.  I gave my best guess but there are several ways to do this map.  I personally think its unlikely to see a third minority majority seat drawn by the redistricting commission.  I also think its an unlikely a federal court will over rule a commission drawn map.  

---

by: rdelbov @ Fri Jan 21, 2011 at 16:31:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

A couple of things

1) I missed that little part of the Tohono O'oodham reservation in Maricopa co. Thanks for reminding me about that

2)I'm not sure why you're concerned about Grijalva's district. According to DRA the hispanic percentage in the old 7th was 55% and the percentage in the new 7th is 54%, basically no change. Keep in mind that the 7th also loses it's part of La Paz county (where Ruth McClung beat Grijalva 71-28% last year) under my map. The partisanship of the new district may be a point or two more favorable to the GOP, but that most likely wouldn't have swung the race to McClung last year, and if Grijalva can't lose in the worst year for Democrats in decades after calling for a boycott of his own constituents, he's probably safe for life.

Male, VA-08

---

by: drobertson @ Fri Jan 21, 2011 at 21:26:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

My book says 50%

hispanic but amybe I  should have counted the  5% Native American.  Not sure but what my almanac counts but for VRA purposes they are counted together. I don't look for native American numbers in most districts as they immaterial except for a few western states.

---

by: rdelbov @ Fri Jan 21, 2011 at 22:48:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ehhh

I think the problem is that Yuma County has a very high proportion of non-citizen Hispanics working agriculturally (it's very similar to the Central Valley of California in that respect), so that makes this district look more secure than it is. Even though the portion of Maricopa County that Grijalva lost isn't overwhelming Democratic (lots of middle-class Hispanics there plus the Whites are pretty Republican), there were enough voting Hispanics that they had some real sway. The portion of La Paz was so tiny that it really doesn't make much of a difference. It also looks like you've shaved off some key areas in Pima County. I don't think that's a bad thing from a communities of interest POV, but if you're not replacing them with Hispanics who actually vote then there would be a problem.

Also, you should consider plugging this district into the updated population estimates that Dave added. The problems that Western Pinal County causes for this district in this configuration should be pretty clear.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

---

by: Nico @ Sat Jan 22, 2011 at 02:03:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

new map

I redid my own map based on the new estimates, and edited it into my old post to avoid taking up too much space. See if you can look it over when you get the chance.

41, Ind, CA-05

---

by: sacman701 @ Fri Jan 21, 2011 at 23:11:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Will do

I actually just moved and I don't have internet at home yet, so it's been kind of touch and go, but I'll try to give you some feedback shortly.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

---

by: Nico @ Sat Jan 22, 2011 at 02:04:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

VRA

These districts actually might not satisfy the VRA.  I honestly don't know.  The VRA is keyed off of Voting Citizen Age Population, not Voting Age Population.  In other words, you have to look at the potential electorate, not census results.  Since Hispanics are younger and less likely to be citizens, you probably have to get up to around 55% Hispanic before they start to make up a majority of the potential electorate.  

---

by: curiousgeorge @ Fri Jan 21, 2011 at 17:58:27 PM UTC

bingo

these 50% hispanic seats actually are over 50% white when votes are cast.  

That's why I believe the 1st emphasis will be population content for CD4 & CD7.  Whatever the commission does on CD5 is a different point.  They make it more GOP or less GOP or keep it the same.  VRA will just not compell them to do a 50% hispanic seat.  

---

by: rdelbov @ Fri Jan 21, 2011 at 18:39:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]