I begin to think

that Republicans will gain not only state Senate, but House as well in November in this state. They need to gain 10 seats, and with possible other party switches (there are still some conservative Democrats in House, though - really few now) - even less then that..

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by: smoltchanov @ Thu Jan 20, 2011 at 20:26:50 PM UTC

I dunno.

If it were in 2010, then yes.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Thu Jan 20, 2011 at 20:30:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Honestly, was having Democrats in

control of anything of any particular value in Mississippi?

Honestly, I don't think the state will see real progress until the black + hispanic share of the electorate goes above ~48%.  

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by: andgarden @ Thu Jan 20, 2011 at 21:39:52 PM UTC

That

has been my thinking all along.  The white conservadems have really only been good for redistricting. When the minority population swells to combine with liberal whites to give over 50% shall we have peace. I mean liberal majorities.

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by: IndianaProg @ Thu Jan 20, 2011 at 22:02:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I wonder

Is it really trending that way in MS?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Thu Jan 20, 2011 at 22:07:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Liberal Whites in MS? (And more backgrounds on the party-switchers)

In no way there will be a liberal white-AA coalition in MS, as this is one of the most racially polarized state in statewide and federal contests.  The few liberal whites probably resides in the city of Jackson (state capitol, government employee and some colleges, but overwhelmingly AA), Oxford (where Ole Miss/Univ. of MS is located, but more than balanced out by more conservative natives) and maybe Starkville (where MS State Univ. is located).  In 08', Obama narrowly carried Oktibbeha County (Starkville) by merely 6 votes, probably by maxing out both AA and college votes.  Without the Obama effect, that county usually tilts GOP.

As for the party switchers, Rep. Margaret Rogers represents parts of Pontotoc and Union (New Albany, MS), both McCain 75%+ counties, and located at the 1st CD, dominated by conservative NE MS white rural Dems who are steadily trending GOP on down-ballot races (They already vote overwhelmingly GOP at the federal level), so her switch could be in part driven by political survival/constituent opinion.

Rep. Russell Nowell is a more curious case, as he represents all of 55% white, Winston County(Louisville, MS and his home base), an overwhelmingly white sliver of otherwise 69.3% AA Noxubee County, and western (probably whiter) portion of 58% AA Kemper County.  His resultant HD43 is probably white majority and leans at least somewhat GOP.  I reach the above conclusion by looking up the racial data in Dave's Redistricting App and the maps available at the MS Joint Redistricting Committee (http://www.msjrc.state.ms.us/ms_by_county_house.html).  This HD is located in the 3rd CD, another GOP stronghold, so Rep. Nowell may have political survival and/or constituent opinion.

Don't forget Mississippi holds legislative elections this year, and both State Reps may either be re-elected as GOPer's or upset in the GOP primary by voters looking true-borne GOPer's instead of turncoat Dems.  Stay tuned!

31, Asian American male, Dem-tilting Independent, FL-19 (former), FL-08 (short-term), and MS-02 (current).

31, Independent, MS-02 (Hometown FL-19)

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by: ECPolitico @ Thu Jan 20, 2011 at 23:02:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Because they are in Coalition

With Liberal Whites and blacks, the Democratic leadership as a whole tends to be pulled to the left. This is very much the case on issues like education, but even on Gay rights, while no Conservadems will support gay marriage or even civil unions, they also blocked votes on the issue in a bunch of states, and liberals tend to be strong enough to prevent actual anti-gay legislation from being passed. So yes if you are  gay or black or female the transition from Democratic leadership to GOP leadership matters enormously even if your own state rep flipping has no real impact on their voting record.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

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by: BenjaminDisraeli @ Thu Jan 20, 2011 at 22:38:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

49-State Strategy

It's hard for me to care much about what happens in Mississippi politics. I just sort of assume that no good news is going to come out of there in the forseeable future.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

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by: Answer Guy @ Thu Jan 20, 2011 at 22:15:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

With due respect to Mississippi

I endorse Charlie Rangel's view of the state.

I would include Alabama, Louisiana, Oklahoma and perhaps a handful of other on that "hard to care about" list. It's not that I don't care, it's just that I am familiar with the political realities.  

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by: andgarden @ Thu Jan 20, 2011 at 22:21:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes, any productivity is will be down the road

Seeing as the high water mark for Democrats is 43% (and Obama helped that with black turnout), there is still a bit of distance before Democrats are really viable.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

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by: DrPhillips @ Thu Jan 20, 2011 at 23:28:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Considerable bit

Mississippi population is still about 60% white, and with about 90% of whites voting Republican, it will take no less then 25-30 years before the state will become "minority majority". And only  if there won't be heavy black outmigration from the state (as happened frequently in the past).

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by: smoltchanov @ Fri Jan 21, 2011 at 04:20:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

one unknown: Hispanics

per my link in a different comment -- from Haley Barbour:

"I don't know where we would have been in Mississippi after Katrina if it hadn't been for the Spanish speakers that came in to help rebuild, and there's no doubt in my mind that some of them weren't here legally", Barbour said. "If they hadn't come and stayed for a few months or a couple of years, we would be way, way, way behind where we are now".

We'll soon see how many Hispanics got to MS post Katrina.

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by: tietack @ Fri Jan 21, 2011 at 04:37:31 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes

So far - Hispanics percentage in Mississippi is rather low, but that can change rapidly

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by: smoltchanov @ Fri Jan 21, 2011 at 04:58:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

well it might be a little faster then that since

more whites (however small) break for dems then blacks for republicans and there are more whites.

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

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by: D in FL @ Fri Jan 21, 2011 at 19:14:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This might help

http://www.thegrio.com/politic...

Though I'd guess it'd take a cycle or two for the Black-Brown alliance to kick in w/r/t voting in MS.

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by: tietack @ Fri Jan 21, 2011 at 01:11:48 AM UTC

This is an example about the ways what is working the GOP for take advantage

in some red states.

They are opposite cases where the democrats can work by the same way.

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by: abgin @ Fri Jan 21, 2011 at 02:25:50 AM UTC

If only we could get those two Republicans holding us up in CO & OR to do this

Wouldn't that be great...

Male, VA-08

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by: drobertson @ Fri Jan 21, 2011 at 05:05:24 AM UTC

Theoretically - why not?

There are some moderate Republicans in Oregon's House (Vicki Berger, Bob Jenson (he was almost successfully primaried from the right for being "too moderate")) and, as far as i know - in Colorado too))))

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by: smoltchanov @ Fri Jan 21, 2011 at 08:30:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I have thought similar things

If the CO Democratic party could promise to clear the field for some of these Republicans (easier to do in a primary for some low-level state legislative seat than for someone like Parker Griffith or Arlen Specter), that would have to be an appealing offer for some Republicans in CO and OR who are in naturally dem-leaning seats and are probably in trouble next cycle. If you were a moderate Republican in a seat that leans democrat, and you had the choice between facing a possible primary challenge from the right and then a challenge from the opposite party in the general election on turf that is naturally unfriendly to your party, or flipping over to the Democratic side and getting a guarantee from the state party that they will do everything they can to help you avoid a primary challenge (making your reelection far more likely than not), which is clearly the more appealing offer?

Male, VA-08

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by: drobertson @ Sat Jan 22, 2011 at 02:11:38 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Probably a fair bit harder than in MS

These party switchers are often long-time conservative Democrats in R+15ish districts who may have held reservations about the direction of the party for some time. In Colorado, most of the legislators in marginal districts are probably freshmen, and their districts are probably like D+3 anyway.

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by: Nichlemn @ Sat Jan 22, 2011 at 13:05:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]