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6R-2D Gerrymander of Wisconsin

by: drobertson

Tue Jan 18, 2011 at 8:09 PM EST


Looking at WI voting patterns, it seems that there pretty much have to be three Democratic districts in the state: one in Milwaukee, one in Madison, and one along the western border with Minnesota. But if the GOP wanted to be really nasty, they could pack Madison in with the heavily Democratic regions along the Western border into one super-democratic district and allowing them to take over all the other districts in the state. This map accomplishes a pretty solid 6-2 split in the WI delegation for the GOP, while simultaneously strengthening the districts of reps Ryan, Duffy, and Ribble.  
drobertson :: 6R-2D Gerrymander of Wisconsin
The Democratic vote dump in the 2nd connects Madison, La Crosse, the counties just south of Duluth, and some other highly Democratic counties in the SW region, forcing reps Kind and Baldwin into one district. I would have added in Ashland Co, but rep Duffy lives there (reps Duffy and Ryan are both in the unfortunate situation of living in the most democratic areas of their districts, interestingly). Rep Ryan's 1st is probably shifted the most to the right of any district in this map, due to his seniority in the house. It loses the Dem-leaning areas of Racine and Kenosha, and gains a lot of more rural territory. Some of this territory in the SW corner of the state is ancestrally Democratic (although it voted mainly GOP this year), but the rest of the area is very conservative, which has the effect of giving Ryan a pretty safe seat for as long as he wants it. Ryan seemed to have a lock on his old seat, but if the GOP is smart they'll probably try to make it safer; his old district was won by Obama in 08 (although some of that may have been due to the fact that WI-01 borders Illinois and contains areas like Racine and Kenosha that are suburbs of Chicago). Perhaps more importantly, Ryan is actually incredibly conservative for a swing district like his, this analysis by Crisitunity back in 2009 found him to be the house GOPer in the 110th congress most to the right of his district (the GOP version of Nate Silver's Most Valuable Democrat, if you will). This seems to suggest that in the future Ryan could be vulnerable in his current district, although he hasn't shown any signs of it yet. Anyway, under this map, he probably wouldn't be vulnerable anymore. Racine and Kenosha are moved to the 5th and 6th, respectively. Those districts have moved slightly to the left to help other districts, but they are still solidly GOP districts anchored in very conservative territory. The 4th in Milwaukee has gotten slightly more Democratic, and is now majority-minority (47% W, 33% B, 15% H), which helps the surrounding districts a little. The 8th is changed a little in partisanship; it has lost some light red areas in the NE corner of the state for deep red areas around Manitowoc and Sheboygan. The 3rd now stretches east from Eau Claire to Oshkosh. It is probably the most Democratic of all the districts other than the 2nd and 4th. And finally the 7th has now lost the most Democratic parts of the district is now much safer for rep Duffy.

The upper midwest has generally had very little history for gerrymandering in the past, so there could be a good deal of political fallout for the GOP if they decide to push a plan like this. They might be able to get away with chunking the south of Duluth counties into the 3rd, but something like this, although not terrible by the standards of states like CA, MD, or TX, would be the worst gerrymander WI has seen in ages.

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In case anyone is interested
the wikipedia article for WI-06 has maps of WI's congressional districts back to 1860. Amazingly clean and non-gerrymandered.

Male, VA-08

Now that
Is one impressively awful district..

So who wins the primary in the 2nd?
Kind or Baldwin?

Baldwin, probably
About half the population of this district is in Dane Co, which should come in strong for Baldwin. The wild card would be the northern counties which neither Baldwin nor Kind have represented. My guess is that if this map were drawn, Kind would run for the senate (assuming Kohl retires, of course).

Male, VA-08

[ Parent ]
If Kind's choice
is a primary vs. Baldwin or a primary vs. Kohl he might choose the latter. Who knows, it might induce Kohl to retire.

[ Parent ]
I think Kind would have more options

Like move to other district not very republican.

The diary give not stimation about the rating of every district, but I think some of these 6 republican districts can be Obama districts.

The current WI-04 is D+22, that mean 75% Obama. Difficult to make it significatively more democratic.

The current WI-02 is D+15, 68% Obama, but the WI-02 of this map is more rural, and cause of this, surely less democratic.

Without the the current WI-04 and WI-02, the average of the six remaining districts in the current map is R+2 (50% Obama). And I doubt seriously this new map can improve it with WI-02 becoming more rural.

Some of these republican districts surely are pretty weak.


[ Parent ]
Sorry R+2 is 51% Obama, and more about KInd's options

As example Kind can move so easily to this new WI-01 (blue).

Taking the list of the counties what are inside we can see:

64% O D+11 Rock County: 169165 inh.
62% O D+9 Crawford County: 16731 inh.
62% O D+9 Green County: 36110 inh.
61% O D+8 Grant County: 48965 inh.
60% O D+7 Richland County: 17848 inh.
60% O D+7 Lafayette County: 15773 inh.
58% O D+5 Adams County: 20088 inh.
57% O D+4 Columbia County: 55170 inh.
54% O D+1 Juneau County: 26451 inh.
52% O R+1 Marquette County: 14727 inh.
50% O R+3 Waushara County: 24606 inh.
48% O R+5 Walworth County: 100593 inh.
42% O R+11 Green Lake County: 18472 inh.
-----------------------------------------
57.25% O D+4 Total until now: 564699 inh

part (rural) of Dane County (73% O)
little part of Monroe County (53% O)
very little part of Dodge County (45% O)

This district would be D+3, 56% Obama, if the remaining parts of the district are 49% Obama or higher.

This district would be D+2, 55% Obama, if the remaining parts of the district are 43% Obama or higher.

I think this new WI-01 would be D+ clearly.

And looking to the map, I suspect what the news WI-03, WI-07 and WI-08 can be Obama districts (at least 50% Obama districts).


[ Parent ]
mm very interesting to see Ryan in a D+2 (aprox) district

I do the calculus without remember it was the district of Ryan.

[ Parent ]
Potential Flips
I can see 3 of these districts flipping to the Dems.  Ryan's district does get rid of of Racine and Kenosha, but now it includes Beloit and all of Rock County, Dane County, and some pretty Democratic areas of the Southwest Wisconsin.  While Walworth county is reliably Red, the areas in the North of the District are only lean Republican at best.  So Ryan would still be in a marginal district.  
As for the new 3rd, that would be ripe for a Democrat, in fact I would say it is lean Dem.  It contains Eau Claire, Stevens Point, Oshkosh, and some Democratic rural areas.  
I would say even Ribble's district can be vulnerable.  Appleton and Green Bay are trending blue and even with the nasty areas of Sheboygan and Manitowoc county, these areas are becoming more amenable to voting for Democrats than they have been.

The fundamental problem with doing any solid redistricting is that outside of Dane county  and Milwaukee county and its suburbs, the state is fundamentally swingy.  The same areas that voted for Obama in 08 voted for Johnson and Walker last year.  These areas of very evenly divided.  That is why outside of Moore's, Baldwin's, and Sensenbrenner's districts, the PVI is not beyond 5 points any way.  


Those are all good points
I probably should have put Winnebago county in the 7th. The 3rd would be very vulnerable to a D, especially considering that it would be an open seat in 2012. The problem for the GOP is that you can draw R+2-4 districts in most of the state, but it's almost impossible to draw anything more than that, for all the reasons you said.

Male, VA-08

[ Parent ]
What another nasty looking map
on WI.  I have looked at just swapping counties around and not doing a Madison to Land Superior district.  I can do 5-2-1(with 3rd being several % more republican). You can do compact.  

I did look at all many of  those congressional maps on WI on a later post.  I just can't believe we will see this nasty old district.  Call me old fashion but this district is too nasty for my tastes.  

That being said its a stunning acheivement thanks for posting it.  I can see a snake of sorts to LaCrosse county but not to Lake superior.  Even the laCrosse snake involves splitting Dane which I would be reluctant to do it.  Not because it can't be done but this is Wisconsin-not NY or PA.  People don't that in WI--I think.  


These are not Tommy Thompson Republicans
This reason I am inclined to believe that the GOP will break tradition is that this will be the first time in a while that they have had complete control of the process.  They can have as much fun slicing and dicing as they want.  So with 5 incumbents to protect, including 2 in marginal seats and another 2 that can be competitive pending retirements or and an open seat situation, I believe they will want to do all they can to ensure that their seats are protected.
Additionally, if these Republicans were Tommy Thompson Republicans, then maybe they would stick to reasonable lines.  But the GOP leadership in the state has gone so far beyond Thompson.  It is really quite scary hearing about what they are potentially concocting, even to go so far as to make Wisconsin a Right to Work state.  So given the amount of marginal seats and the way the Wisconsin GOP has evolved, I can believe that they will try to go all out.  At least I would not be surprised to see our own version of an earmuff district connecting the Superior Counties to the Southwest while avoiding as much of the Twin Cities exurbs as possible.  

[ Parent ]
Here's why I don' think the GOP will go crazy here
It's hard to be the first people to do a horrendous gerrymander in a state, but once that taboo is broken it becomes much easier. If the GOP does this, then the Dems now have an excuse to do the same thing later down the road in a decade or so. There's a lot Dems could do hereif they wanted to. If this is the level that WI redistricting sinks to, there's very little to stop the Dems from doing a 7-1 map in 2020. And just based on the partisan lean of the state it's more likely than not Democrats will be in power here in 2020. If the GOP does this, not only do they risk a backlash i'm public opinion, they set a precedent that could really coke back to bite them in the future.

Male, VA-08

[ Parent ]
Something tells me
that progressive WI has iniative and referumdum--if you go to wild you will see some sort of voter backlash.  

Based on 2010 elections its 5-2-1 assuming the GOP can carve seats out to improve CD7 & CD1.  You can move CD2 west a bit and do a little swapping to weaken Kind.

As long as LaCrosse and Eau Claire are in the same district it will be no better then tossup or if Kind retires or moves up who knows?  

I don't buy this must always maximize business.  I enjoy looking at these maps but upon viewing I think folks in WI will be a little more rational then most states.  


[ Parent ]
No initiative or referendum in WI
And I think that's a good thing.  We elect representatives to study the issues and make good decisions, if they make bad decisions then we vote them out.  I'm glad we're not like California with 100 different initiatives every year.

The only binding referenda we have are constitutional amendments--after passage by the legislature they must be approved by popular vote.


[ Parent ]
Wow, that is ugly
Hope the Republicans aren't trolling for ideas here...

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

Close Up of Milwaukee and Madison Areas
Would you be able to post a close up of the Milwaukee and Madison areas, perhaps at the county level? For Milwaukee I am curious to see how you divided up the city and the suburbs, as even between the suburbs in the Milwaukee county there are large partisan differences.
In terms of Madison, I would like to see how you divided up the Madison suburbs as that would affect the bench available to take on Ryan.  

This is a pretty obvious dummymander.
All but the two suburban Milwaukee districts would be winnable for Democrats in a 2008 type year.  That doesn't mean that they actually would, but it's definitely possible.  

One thing to keep in mind is that at least for now, all of Dane County is pretty much uniformly Democratic, not just the city of Madison itself.  As development increases around Madison and towns go from being rural areas to "Madison exurbs," they actually get more Democratic, which is probably an anomaly compared to the rest of the country.  


Let me do both
responses to you here.

1. Surprised about iniatives as that was one of the hallmarks of the Progressive era and as you surely know Senator LF from WI was Mr. Progressive.  

2. Here's the thing about most GOP seats.  Unlike the democratic seats most GOP seats are lean R or R seats.  Very few GOP seats are "never" going to be anything but republican.  Of course just as I say WI2 & WI4 are strong D seats I recall that WI2 had a GOP rep in the 1990s.  In open seat or wave elections the republican seats tend to be more in play then democratic seats.  I agree that under the current map WI9 is ultra secure.  WI6 should be secure but I would not say ultra secure.  In an open seat in a bad year it could go democratic.  That's another reason for doing 5-2-1 and not going crazy.  The GOP needs to secure WI1 for when Ryan leaves and CD7 needs help  


[ Parent ]
Here's my map, a relatively solid 5-3 one.
(As I think your map is easily a dummymander)

Photobucket

Basically, it makes Ron Kind's district more Democratic by gaining Wood and especially Portage (Stevens Point) Counties, while giving up St. Croix (one of a dozen or so McCain counties in WI, lots of population) and Pierce (swingy, 54% Obama). This makes Ron Kind's district even safer in open seat environs, but it also makes WI-07, which also gains the solid gop rural Vilas county, which makes WI-07 a tilt GOP district rather than tilt D. WI-08 loses Appleton proper and takes Mantiwoc and 1/2 of Sheyboygan. Baldwin and Ryan's districts stay mostly the same, save for Ryan's district taking some of New Berlin in Waukesha. Petri's Fond Du Lac - Oshkosh district now takes Appleton and uberconservative Ozaukee and Washington counties, while Sensenbrenner takes some swingy central WI counties. WI-04 stays basically the same.

About as best as you'd want to aim for the GOP. To do more would be foolish IMO.


One problem here
You've drawn sessenbrenner out of his district. He lives in Menomonee Falls in Waukesha co. That could easily be fixed though.

To you and others who have called this a dummymander: I agree that all except the 5th and maybe 6th districts could go GOP under the map I have drawn. But just based on the nature of Wisconsin it is impossible to draw many seats that are truly "safe" for each party. On the current map, only the 2nd, 4th, and 5th are truly "safe" seats, and none of the others have a pvi greater than +4 for either party. Most of the state is very swingy and outside of Madison and the Milwaukee metro area there's not much turf that is safe for either party. Under your map (which I am not disparaging, btw, I actually think it is a great map and probably close to what the GOP will do) the 7th and 8th are very much swing districts that at most tilt towards the GOP, and the 1st is a lean GOP district but easily in range for a democrat (I think Obama probably still carried it). Wisconsin is a hard state to gerrymander, no matter how well you draw it at least three seats will be competitive for both parties.

Male, VA-08


[ Parent ]
Spot on
 that seats are not "safe" in WI.  Maybe that's good because national trends have to affect seats somewhere?


[ Parent ]
I could pick here or pick there
but this map is close what I think will happen.  For instance I still think any voters in Jefferson county is wasted on CD2. Minor point.  I would rather just ditch portage county to CD6  and pick up shawano instead of your work with 4 or five counties.  The same effect occurs either way.


[ Parent ]
Not sure I'd call Racine and Kenosha Chicago suburbs
they might technically be part of Chicagoland, I forget, but they're not really suburban Chicago. Even places in northern Lake County like Gurnee and Zion are pretty far from Chicago, let alone Wisconsin. I've also heard the theory that Obama's overperformance in Indiana was due to the Chicago connection, and while that would work better than Wisconsin (since Lake County, IN actually is in the Chicago sphere), it still strikes me as a bit sketchy.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
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