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CT-Sen: Bysiewicz Will Challenge Lieberman

by: James L.

Tue Jan 18, 2011 at 10:44 AM EST


Another morning jolt:

Democrat Susan Bysiewicz is running for the U.S. Senate seat held by longtime incumbent Joseph Lieberman - almost two years before the 2012 election.

Bysiewicz announced her intentions Tuesday morning in an e-mail that was sent to reporters.

"We need a senator who is 100 percent focused on helping our state, and Senator Joe Lieberman has been focused on everything but Connecticut,'' Bysiewicz said in a statement. "I will only work for the people of Connecticut so we can create jobs that keep our children and grandchildren here in Connecticut for generations to come.''

Bysiewicz's entry -- assuming she actually stays in the race -- could force a competitive Democratic primary between her and Rep. Chris Murphy, who has made every indication that he's interested in the race.

UPDATE: Bysiewicz is coming armed with an internal poll, too. The poll from Bennet Petts Normington (from December 13-16, of registered voters) gives her a lead in both the primary and the general, suggesting she hasn't been too badly harmed by a year's worth of public ooopsies. She leads Chris Murphy in a Dem primary 46-37, and if there's a three-way also involving Ted Kennedy Jr., she leads that 33-26-26. In a general that's Bysiewicz, Joe Lieberman, and Linda McMahon, she leads 34-30-28. She also leads a Bysiewicz/Lieberman/Tom Foley race 33-29-27, and leads a two-way race against Linda McMahon 54-36.

Also, Chris Murphy doesn't seem to be backing down; his post-Bysiewicz statement is the most candidate-ish thing today we've heard out of him yet:

However, Bysiewicz's announcement Tuesday prompted Murphy to send out this statement: "My interest in running for Senate in 2012 is well known in the state, and I expect to announce my decision very soon. All I can say now is that this is going to be a pretty busy few weeks."

UPDATE: Apparently tomorrow we'll know what Joe Lieberman's plans are for 2012. An announcement at a press conference is scheduled, although there's no suggestion yet what's being announced.

UPDATE 3: A few hours later, we are getting multiple reports that Lieberman's announcement tomorrow will be that he will retire.
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CT-Sen: Bysiewicz Will Challenge Lieberman | 161 comments
Maybe
She's very ambitious and wants to scare away Murphy.  I don't mind entirely.  Murphy's seat will be harder to defend if it is an open seat.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Meh, I'm not huge on Bysiewicz
Doesn't strike me as a particularly sharp person. I'm not even sure that many people no about her...she never really had a huge profile as SoS. I'm a big fan of Murphy and Himes, though. I think if either of them ever made it to the Senate, they could have a chance to have a strong national profile, especially Murphy.

Unfortunately, I reregistered in Pennsylvania, but if I could still vote in Connecticut, I'd definitely cast a ballot for Murphy.

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)

[ Parent ]
I agree
Chris Murphy is Majority Leader material.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
you can always just re-register
I switched all the time between home and college depending on the election I'd rather vote on.  Easier for me since we have same day registration in MN and both my locations were in-state, but you've got plenty of time to figure out the paper-work and mail-by dates.

And if I've never gotten in trouble for my back and forth polling location manuevering, I doubt you doing it cross state lines would even register.  Use some scout's honor though bc I'm not suggesting anything illegal where you vote in two different primaries in different states.  We all get one primary, one GE, and a caucus, if we're fortunate enough, per cycle.

[ Parent ]
I've thought about that
Because lord knows I'd love to cast a ballot for Chris Murphy and against Lieberman. But my vote for president is worth more in Pennsylvania and Casey might have a tough race so I'll probably stay put.

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)
[ Parent ]
As a fellow CT-04er-turned-PA-02er
Agreed...Philadelphia is especially fun because there's some kind of fairly-important election literally every year...State Supreme Court, Governor, Mayor, President, State Supreme Court...

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)
[ Parent ]
Although
Unlike you, I was lucky enough to be old enough to vote against Joe Lieberman last time around.  Not that I'm bragging.  2006 was a frustrating election in CT-04.  Of course the mayor-equivalent of my hometown had to be the one to lose a damn Kerry district in 2006.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)
[ Parent ]
Wow, funny coincidence
I take it you're from Westport based on what you said in your comment. I have my roots in Darien, and I can't say I was disappointed to take off. The Gold Coast is a splotch of blood in an otherwise beautifully blue state.

And yeah, it's kind of nice that there's something to look forward to every year. I remember my first important ballot was cast in favor of Jack Panella for State Supreme Court and Seth Williams for Philadelphia County DA. Panella lost, unfortunately, but it was exciting nonetheless.

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)

[ Parent ]
Yes, I'm from Westport
A splotch of blue in the splotch of red :).  Relatively-speaking.  One of the only "Gold Coast" towns to back Himes and Malloy this time around...And don't worry.  You'll get to cast some important ballots next year that should feel a lot better.

Are you at Penn, btw?


25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
Yep
I'm a Penn undergrad.

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)
[ Parent ]
lol
whenever I find out where someone goes to college I always have to resist the temptation to play the, "Oh, you go to ______! Do you know ________?" game...

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
At least it's better than the "Oh, you're from ____! Do you know ____?" game
for states and sufficiently large cities.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
I've cast more absentee ballots for PA-02
than I can count. My other alternatives have been DC-AL and NY-08. . .
[ Parent ]
Nice combination
I saw this Minnesota smartpolitics blog post that said that there are only 8 districts where a Democratic house incumbent won by more in 2010 than in 2008.  These included PA-01 and PA-02 (the two main Philly districts) CT-04 (where I'm from) and NY-12 (where my boyfriend lives).  In other words, pretty much anyplace I ever go is in one of those 8 districts.  I am bubble-ensconced.  Although maybe not as much as PA-02/DC-Al/NY-08--when is the last time any of those or their equivalents have been Republican?

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)
[ Parent ]
Well, configurations have shifted a bit
But I don't believe that the Upper West Side or West Philadelphia have been represented by a Republican since at least FDR. I'd have to double check on the latter, though, because Philadelphia was a REPUBLICAN machine town before the 50s.  
[ Parent ]
Indeed
There's an interesting book on this--"Reform in Philadelphia, 1946-1951."--focusing on how the mayoral campaigns of Clark (later a Senator) and Dilworth catalyzed the change.  Joseph Richard Fink is the author.  It's a dissertation so it might be hard to track down.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)
[ Parent ]
Philadelphia was the Republican answer
to Tammany hall. They were accused at least once of stealing a Senate election.
[ Parent ]
You might also check out
"Tasting Freedom", by Dan Biddle and Murray Dubin, about the civil rights movement in Philadelphia during the Civil War era.  There's a fabulous account of how a Moyamensing boss, "Squire" McMullen, sent goons to Harrisburg to intimidate the state legislature for one U.S. Senate election by literally standing in the chamber with their pistols flashing.  Although McMullen was a Democrat.

It's funny how much and how little changes at the same time.  Two congressmen mentioned the book are Kelley, a civil rights advocate, and Randall, an ally of McMullen's who was House Speaker.  Kelley represented Philly west and northwest of the Schuyllkill and Randall represented a smaller district bordering the Delaware, so Kelley's district would be in PA-02 today, and Randall's would be in PA-01.  Which is what you might expect with current political geography, even though so much was different back then.  (I actually wondered about their precise districts at an event of the authors', and they weren't sure, so I looked them up in the historical atlas...this site has taught me well).

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
IIRC, we have the redistricting trifecta in Connecticut
Unless I'm wrong and/or Connecticut is another blue/purple state that has stupidly adopted a commission.  So, Murphy's district can be shored up easily.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I'm not happy with the work of the commissions in states like NJ or WA

And I have not big hope with the work of the commission in California.

I agree.

[ Parent ]
Redistricting requires a 2/3rds vote in Connecticut
So no, no trifecta.
[ Parent ]
If last year experience with her candidacy for different offices
is any indicator - i doubt she will win. Too many gaffes in relatively short time (if i remeber correctly)
She's
damaged goods for sure.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
her "gaffe" ...
... was in not recognizing how stingy the Connecticut Supreme Court would be in its reading of the qualifications for the office of state AG in terms of what constituted active legal practice.
[ Parent ]
and
having too many ballots for the primary, too few for the general election, announcing that WWE merchandise could be worn on election day and not be an ad for linda mcmahon and then the 10 days or so where connecticut seemingly had two governors.  The Not So Might B could be a good general election candidate, but it would be hard for her to emerge from a primary.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
should say
the "Not So Mighty B."  attempting to nickname her, if anyone else has suggestions, please post them.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
She also ran for Governor for about 5 minutes before dropping down to AG
and called the governor's race for Malloy long before she should have.
[ Parent ]
Here my opinion is what she leaves the race for governor cause of Dodds retirement

Before Dodds retirement it was expected:

Dodd for sen 2010
Blumenthal for sen 2012
Bysiewicz leading for gov 2010

After Dodds retirement:

Blumenthal change for sen 2010 (he wins)
Bysiewicz change for sen 2012 (now confirmed, but obvious since the first moment)
Malloy or Lamont for gov 2010 (Malloy wins)

We can not tell this is a surprise. Then she can not tell this bid, but it was obvious, because that would make not possible to have some vote of Lieberman for Obama and Reid's agenda.

Before she leaves the race for governor I get so impressed by her cause of she become able for close the polls against Rell, and I think she make Rell retire.

[ Parent ]
My recollection of the facts and law suggest the CtSupCt not "stingy" at all......
It's been a long time since I read about it and I no longer remember the details, but I remember back when it was a hot issue, thinking to myself that it was pretty dicey for her to rely on the resume she had to meet the "practice of law" requirement.  I wasn't surprised at all that she was disqualified.  And I think she was being too cute by half by trying to spin her Sec of State service as "practicing law."

I'm unimpressed with her.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
If you're a fan of hilariously bad Susan B spin
You should check out the transcripts of the depositions in her lawsuit, where she tries to claim that telling someone that Joe Lieberman can't be recalled counts as giving legal advice, so she is too a practicing lawyer, or something (linked to on My Left Nutmeg): http://www.myleftnutmeg.com/di...
Q Okay. So out of the four or five pieces of  correspondence we've looked to today that you claim support your position that you are engaged in the active practice of law, can we agree, ma'am, that in each one of these you indicated to the recipient that there wasn't much you could do to help out their problem, they had to go elsewhere?

I also liked when the (Republican) questioning her is like "you are aware you're the plaintiff in this lawsuit, right?"
and

...you've been unable to tell us what you can do without looking at a calendar, and now I'm just trying to see if your memory is good enough to tell us what you did yesterday in the short time you were in the office before you came to the deposition.

Secretary of the State seems like kind of a stupid position these days anyway, at least in Connecticut, but I don't really know that much about it...but she certainly, at a minimum, doesn't seem to be a good enough politician to make it seem like anything other than a stupid position.  

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
I feel bad she face planted so bad
But my non-lawyer self thought it was a shit argument when I first heard it.  You dont even need to be a lawyer to be SoS, you just need a team of them hired.
[ Parent ]
Yes
It's time Lieberman went.  
But, this is precisely what Lieberman wants
For Chris Murphy to waste millions in the primary. I have to say, I think a Murphy/Bysiewicz showdown kinda reeks of Fisher/Brunner.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Ohio
Expect Chris Murphy would be the Jennifer Brunner in that case since he is the more liberal/Netroots-friendly candidate, right?

Reading the comments on the CT Mirror, New Haven Independent and Hartford Courant, seems she has no fans within Connecticut. Also voters in a statewide Connecticut Democratic primary seem a bit more liberal-leaning then the ones in Ohio.

[ Parent ]
They don't really differ much ideologically
It's more just that Murphy has institutional backing and is better at fund raising (like Fischer). Bysiewicz is like Brunner because she's inept at conventional campaign tactics.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
institutional backing?
Hmmm... but it wasn't that Susan Bysiewicz lacked institutional backing. She just didn't understand the state law on running for office. She had plenty of institutional backing in her runs for Secretary of State.
[ Parent ]
I dont see any resemblance candidate-to-candidate
just it'll be a money draining primary against money bags McMahon and incumbent Lieberman.
[ Parent ]
I think the comparison is inept.


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Ugh...I wanted Murphy to have a clear field
If Courtney gets in this could be really messy.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
Courtney
could have a real advantage in the primary. He represents over half the states and I see him as a very good campaigner (though he has faced two terrible canidates in '08 and '10). I see him as someone who will try and run outside the establishment and focus in on his no vote on the bailout while Murphy voted yes. I believe he has strong labor union ties which would be a real help.

All in all, I would not count him out, and I would say he has as good of shot as anyone to win the nomination, especially in a divded primary.

CT-02, Republican

[ Parent ]
"No" vote on bailout not a winner on our side......
There are a lot of pro-bailout Democrats.  Remember, our Democratic President voted for it as a Senator.  And he's helped implement it as President.  It's part of our narrative that things would be much worse if not for the collection of steps taken, including the financial and auto bailouts and the stimulus.

And if the economy improves, that only further validates the bailouts and much else.

If Courtney runs and uses the bailout vote as an issue, I don't blame him for trying since you use whatever contrasts you have available in a campaign, but it won't work.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I'd expect the bailout to be relatively popular in CT
given the heavy preponderance of insurance and related financial industries in that state.

So I suggest that a CT politician who voted against the bailout is like a WA state politician who votes against Boeing.

(However, I haven't seen any CT polling w/r/t the bailout, so that's just my guess.)

[ Parent ]
In the past election
Courtney used his voted numerous times during the campaign, and he won 60-40, so I would presume he would try and use that vote again. Also, Murphy voted against it and that is one of the few differences they have.

CT-02, Republican
[ Parent ]
If he runs
Do you think Simmons would run for CT-02 again?
[ Parent ]
Possible
Charlie Bass, Steve Chabot and Steve Pearce staged successful comebacks last year, but the problem is that CT-02 is a deep blue district. I believe Simmons held down the most Democratic PVI district during his tenure in the house. In a presidential year it would be at worst a lean Dem race.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Simmons
I don't think so. First I doubt he would want to take the chance to lose in his own district. And there are rumors in the state that he was thinking about running for Chair of the State RNC. ALso, I don't think he would give Linda a pass on the primary.

Simmons says he won't rule out run for Senate too. http://www.nationalreview.com/...  

CT-02, Republican

[ Parent ]
er, he represents 1/5 of the state
because...Connecticut has 5 congressmen. (Unless you meant in land area, but what does that have to do with anything? Trees don't get to vote.)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
this also brings up the possibility of lieberman winning the democratic primary
if murphy, not so mighty B, lieberman and some dudes run, lieberman could, in theory, win a barebones plurality in the primary.  

Lieberman: 30%
Murphy 29%
NSMB: 28%
some dude #1: 7
some dude #2: 5
some dude #3: 2

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

If Courtney jumps in, too, he might well
I think Lieberman can get about 30-35% in a Democratic primary, and with three other major candidates (and perhaps a few some dudes, too), that's enough to prevail.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
I doubt that
Last time someone did a poll Lieberman only had a 24% approval rating among Democrats and a 22% rating among Obama supporters (who are likely to make up almost the entire electorate if the GOP presidential primary is competitive). He's stored up some goodwill over the last few weeks, but I don't think it's enough that you can bank on him reaching 30 in a Dem primary (especially when Murphy and every major liberal 527 hammers reminds voters of his behavior). I think Lieberman is still a huge underdog in a three-way and a toss-up at best in a four-way.

Anyway, he said he's running as an Independent if he doesn't retire, so we'll probably never know.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
New Super Mario Bros.?
Y'all's decision to reference The Mighty B! causes a different reference to appear.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
really?
i don't see it.  could you explain?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
wait, i get it.
New Super Mario Brothers.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
I've argued here for over a year that Joe could win a Democratic primary in 2012 if...
...he can either scare away top competition or, just the opposite, split a divided anti-Joe field.

The question now is whether Joe is smart enough to realize his only path to victory is through the Democratic primary.  GOP voters won't have him this time, since the Iraq War is over and there's nothing else dear to their hearts where he's with them.  He can't win as an indy, since those same GOP voters won't have him in any capacity, and also his indy and Dem vote shares will decline compared to last time.  But a divided Dem field gives him a shot through his former party.

Or, maybe he'll retire?  Plausible, although I wouldn't bet on it.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Well, we should know by tomorrow
I'm crossing my fingers that he doesn't take your advice

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
do you think...
That the knee-jerk Lieberman reaction means he's more or less likely to run again?  I think more.  

And now I think more likely he'll run as a D.  Again, look at his 4 options...Which one would most require an immediate response to Susan B's announcement?  

Unless this is in response to Conrad's announcement.  

[ Parent ]
Liberman's toast, regardless
There's no way in hell he'd pull off a win in the Dem primary. If Murphy AND Courtney AND Bysiewicz all ran, then maybe I'd give him 40% odds. But you have no idea how much Connecticut Democrats despise Joe Lieberman.

Personally, I hope he runs and gets demolished in the general election, and I think that's exactly what'll happen.

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)

[ Parent ]
Argh.
Between this and Conrad, it's not a great morning.

Not quite "OMFG, Republicans just won every statewide office in the Midwest outside of Minnesota" bad, but it really isn't a good start to the cycle.

And given NMSB's close ties to Lieberman (in addition to having political instincts slightly to the south of Richard Blumenthal's), something smells here. Not sure what, but it's just all too convenient somehow.  

Go on...


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Sorry, what's NMSB?

[ Parent ]
Its
"Not so mighty B"

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
That would be
NSMB, not NMSB.  
[ Parent ]
Not-so Mighty Susan Bysiewicz, then?


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Did Republicans really have a good start ot the 2010 cycle...
....with the announcements Bond, Gregg, and Voinovich were retiring and which fueled predictions that Democrats would gain Senate seats in the 2010 cycle?

We're far too far out to start getting depressed yet.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
Thank you thank you thank you!
This is exactly what was needed to be pointed out.  I know I wasn't the only who talked of a veto proof Senate being in the extremes of possible in the first half of 2009.
[ Parent ]
absolutely...
The only caveat is that while it ended up being a great year for Republicans in 2010, the individual retirements never turned out to be "good".  Each made things more difficult.  (Unlike Dodd's, which made things easier...)  It caused them to have to invest money in races that they probably wouldn't have had to sweat otherwise.  So while I'm still optimistic that '12 will not be bad for Democrats, this piece of news is most definitely a net negative overall, and will be for the duration of the cycle.
[ Parent ]
...
I should say the ND-Sen news, even though the discussion is in here.  I'm sorry.
[ Parent ]
Bad news this morning
Not quite as bad as Sen. Conrad retiring, but I had been feeling very good about Rep. Murphy's chances to take over Sen. Lieberman's seat, and this is an added annoyance.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
Not an open thread, but it seems like we need good news
Tom Jensen has declared the oft talked about "enthusiasm gap" officially dead based on his national Kos poll

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

Um, those are NOT strong internals re: the general election
My own voter model (granted, I'm not the king of this stuff) has Murphy up 43-32-25 over McMahon and Lieberman. Unless all of the undecideds in her poll are Democrats.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
Glad Murphy isn't backing down
Hopefully he's been working behind the scenes establishing connections and a solid donor base to run on. He has what it takes to make Bysiewicsz completely irrelevant.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
Internal Poll
Is it just me, or is her internal poll not a good sign. I never thought that she would only lead McMahon by 6 in a three way and only 4 to Lieberman. Anyone else see that as a read flag for Dems?

CT-02, Republican
Bysiewicz...
Is an extraordinarily weak candidate, especially after the kerfuffle with the gubernatorial election.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Seems like it
I agree with the vast majority of this thread that Murphy would make a better candidate. Course, my number one priority in this race is to get rid of Lieberman and get a real Dem in there.  
[ Parent ]
I think now is confirmed

She leaves the gubernatorial race for run for senate in 2012.

I think she was in since she leaves the race for governor.

Still her bid for AG was as sign of it. The current senators of Connecticut jump to the senate after be CT Attorney General.

She should have just stayed in the governor race
She would have probably won easily, and that would have saved the DGA some money to spend elsewhere. Now she's just being a spoiler.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
I think she can be stronger than this

I would be not surprised if she lead public polls for the primary and the general.

We will have some poll in few weeks. Surely PPP will check fast this race.

Bysiewicz jump in now because she has nothing to lose, but if I would be Murphy I would wait to see some poll for jump in.

[ Parent ]
I expect nothing good from Lieberman

I expect something like Lieberman leaving the democratic caucus...

I would like he resigns tomorrow, for other democrat can be appointed, but I expect something worse.

Why would he do that?
He just spearheaded the successful repeal of DADT. I think it's more likely he'll announce he's going to run for the Democratic nomination.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
It is my impression, maybe I get wrong

I think he find with both parties to have not challenger in a primary. I think he want not a three ways race what would leave him very weak since a financial point.

Since he give less trouble to the democrats in the senate in 2010 maybe he work more to have not strong challengers from the democratic party.

Cause of this McMahon appears as a likely challenger before some democrat when she support him for his 2006 bid.

I think Bysiewicz and Murphy wait until now because if Lieberman would resign before Rell goes, she would appoint some republican to the seat, and cause of give not troubles to Reid and Obama what need Lieberman's votes in 2010. Now Lieberman is necessary, but less necessary.

[ Parent ]
Rell's gone
Rell's been out for almost 2 weeks.  Dannel Malloy (D) is gov. now.
[ Parent ]
yes just I mean this

Now they are not risk of a republican appointment.
[ Parent ]
Lieberman...
Has 4 options: (1) Retire, (2) run in the D primary, (3) run in the R primary, (4) run as an Indy.  I almost think that today's announcement would peg each of those options at 25%.  
Before today I would have had 2 and 3 much worse than 25%.  Now I think (2) could be Brendan Byrne '77, and (3) could be Bloomberg '01 (more or less, but a primary to deal with too).

[ Parent ]
Lieberman is not an easily predictable man, but well

in the last months he seems less opposed to the democratic agenda
[ Parent ]
i can't see liebs as an R
at least not in this climate.  lets see.

supported gore?  one heck of a check.
Stimulus?  check.
HCR? check.
FINREG?  check.
DADT?  another heck of a check.
supported RINO MCCAIN (aka mccain XP)? check.
START?  yep.
support for the iraq war, when the next election will probably (although not necessarily) be an economic election and referendum on obama, won't cut it.  neither will support for the tax cuts which most democratic senators voted for any way.  Lieberman doesn't have a platform with the CT republicans, heck, at least specter had stimulus votes to run on.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

It's a given that the Rs won't have Lieberman......
Your analysis is correct, they won't accept him anymore.  His 3 choices are indy, Dem primary, or retire.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
With McMahon flirting with challenge him

It can be so unlikely. When the republicans need him for stop Obama and Reid's agenda in 2010 and 2009 he vote more with the democrats.
[ Parent ]
TX-Sen
Off topic, but PPPolling has a big bucket of cold water for the "Dems must contest this seat" crowd.


"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
CT politico Kevin Rennie reporting Lieberman WILL RETIRE!!!......
See link:  http://www.dailyructions.com/l...

Frankly, this is good news for us.  We don't need Joe sucking up oxygen, it takes resources away from elsewhere.  We're much better off, especially in a Presidential year with Obama turnout, to have a straight one-on-one D-vs.-R fight.  Even though Joe would be a longshot if he ran, it's an easier win this way, and we can spend more resources elsewhere.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

Markos will be unhappy...
He wanted to take Liberman out, but personal feelings aside, having a straight dem to r helps us immensely.
[ Parent ]
Wow
I thought he was much more vain. So far as legacy is concerned, this is probably his best bet.  
[ Parent ]
I certainly didn't expect this
I also thought his ego might get the best of him but I guess not. An absolute thrashing of Lieberman in the general election would have been sweet redemption, but I guess I'll settle for a retirement.

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)
[ Parent ]
I guess this is good news
But man, would I have loved to see that bastard's concession speech.  

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)
[ Parent ]
If this is true,
it will be a great day for American government.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Maybe not...
It means that Lieberman will be free to go full right, since he will be completely unaccountable to the voters.
[ Parent ]
The part people are missing...
Is that Sen. Lieberman isn't a rightist. He's a social and fiscal liberal with very hawkish, ardently pro-Israel views on foreign policy. He and Sen. Paul are effectively polar opposites.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
A fiscal liberal? Meh.


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Wow!


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
It would be a good new

Very good
[ Parent ]
Good riddance.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I'm all for Murphy as he seems to be a rising star.
Just make sure we have a plan in place for CT-05. Thats one of those races that can either be really easy or a pain in the ass.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
I'm willing to take on the risk in order for Murphy to become a senator
I think we'd be able to hold the fort in a presidential year. Murphy's probably the absolute best we could put up in CT-05 and the GOP has a few retreads from the past couple of cycles they can choose from, but we should be alright. One name that immediately comes to mind is Mary Glassman, Simsbury's first selectwoman (equivalent of mayor in a few CT towns) and Ned Lamont's running mate for lieutenant governor. I'm not sure how she'd fare as a House candidate, but she has electoral experience at least.

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)
[ Parent ]
Good point
Probably depends on redistricting somewhat, too. Does anyone have an idea of the Democratic bench in western and central Connecticut?

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
The basis of every plan for CT-5 should be a good redistricting

The district should be D+5 or plus after redistricting.
[ Parent ]
Dems REALLY have to beat Scott Brown
and take Ensign's seat to remotely come close to holding the Senate in 2012.

The NE and ND seats are probably gone and TX is a fool's errand not to talk of defending Tester, Webb, McCaskill and Nelson (FL) and holding Stabenow and Brown.  

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  

That's why it's a good thing that it's a presidential year... n/t

[ Parent ]
Exactly


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I'm fairly optimistic.
We should get a quality* challenger in Massachusetts and hopefully in Nevada.  Stabenow and Casey are in states that should go blue short of a Republican route.  Our Brown, Bill Nelson, and Webb are in states that went blue last time and where the headwinds against our candidates shouldn't be too bad even if they go red.  

*Defined in a political science way to mean someone with previous elected experience who, you would think, should know how to run a campaign.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
I think they are reasons for be optimistic

Obviously it is necessary to work for keep all the incumbents, especially MT-Sen and MO-Sen because the rest seems a little favored, and for win MA-Sen, NV-Sen and ME-Sen.

NE-Sen and ND-Sen are in risk, despite I think the difference would be not as high.

[ Parent ]
I agree,
up to a point. If we can trade the seats in North Dakota for the seats in Massachusetts and Nebraska, assuming everything else stays, we'd be where we are now, which isn't in a terrible spot.

Of course, to hold the majority until 2016, where our pick up opportunities become great, we'd need to do very, very well. That's hard, but not impossible. But our chances of holding the majority are obviously increased if we can pick up additional seats along the way. I won't go into another verbose explanation of why I think Texas is gettable, but I think it is. I also wonder how someone like Phil Bresden might so in a senate race against Corker. But those are B-style options, or maybe even C-style options. Ideally, we'd get Teabaggers to knock off the incumbents, or have the candidates themselves retire, in Indiana, Arizona, and Maine. If we can have that happen and then win in two of those three plus Massachusetts and Nevada, I'd feel quite a bit better about holding the majority.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Due to the location of the seats on both sides
I do think there is more than a good chance that control probably hinges on the result at the top of the ticket.
[ Parent ]
Well, maybe.
It wouldn't surprise me, though, to see Toomey and Kirk lose even if the Republicans won back the White House.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Wow
what would of been a clusterfuck that would of played into McConnell and Cornyn's hands might off been averted. Now all we need is for Bysiewicz and Murphy not to nuke each other to high hell and remind CT that McMahon has blood on her hands for helping to cover up steroid use among her wrestlers and we have a Democratic hold. Guess the only New England Democratic senator who Republicans could knock off is Jeanne Shaheen, and she isn't up for reelection until 2014.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
I know most around here won't agree, but...
If Lieberman does indeed announce his retirement, I'll miss his presence dearly in the U.S. Senate. I think he's been a tremendous U.S. Senator, and I firmly believe some of the left-wing attacks launched at him over the past few years have been rather unfair and/or over-the-line. I hope the reports are false and that he does run again.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
I don't have
any problem with him following his beliefs on certain issues. I might not like it in every case, but I can't say I resent him for it.

What's irritating more than anything, to me at least, is his constant need to kick his party in the shins. I don't think there's a better example of this than when he campaigned for McCain in 2008. Was it really necessary to imply that Obama was a Marxist, even if he tried to walk it back a few words later? Why couldn't he handle his endorsement of McCain by simply saying that while he thought Obama would be a good president, he knew McCain would be a great one, sort of like how Collin Powell handled his endorsement of Obama over his friend John McCain?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Wasn't he single handedly responsible for the death of the medicare buy-in?
Maybe you weren't supportive of that (or the public option though Mary Landrieu, Blanche Lincoln, and Ben Nelson killed that too) but your comment sounds like he's done a lot of productive things the last few years.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
it could be argued that he saved HCR
before i get flamed, please follow my reasoning.  let's assume a few premises are valid.

1.  Obama would not have gone through reconciliation unless the senate got 60 votes first to prove it had wide support.

2.  to get 60 votes he would have needed to get the most conservative dems, Ben Nelson, Mary Landrieu, Pryor and Lincoln to support the bill.

3.  they never would have supported it with the medicare buy in, public option, or anything that doesn't look like consumerism.

it's arguable that Lieberman, after being around the senate for so long, sensed that as long as liberal groups pressed for the public option, buy in, et al. the bill was doomed.  he then went out of his way to kill the option, without killing the bill because pryor et al. would simply wait around until it came to a vote rather than having the guts to try to remove the buy in before a vote.  I realize this is a stretch, but not impossible.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Right.
Reid had 56 votes for the public option. (- Landrieu, Lincoln, Ben Nelson, Lieberman) Reid had 59 votes for the medicare expansion thing. (-Lieberman)


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
two things
one, obama seemed unwilling to pull reconciliation until 60 votes was impossible. had he gone that road from the beginning, he probably would have been done in mid to late 2009.  even after scott brown there was talk that obama was trying to get judd gregg, or voinovich to be vote 60.  reconciliation was a last ditch effort.  two, what evidence do you have that reid had these votes?  pledges of support from senators?  means little until there's a vote.  articles?  speculation.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Yes, articles.
Not going to pull them out right now, but I can say that the medicare provision had the support of the entire caucus -Lieberman. (Who thought it was a "step in the door" to single payer.


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
From a progressive perspective...
The two things I can never forgive Lieberman for were his full throated support of the war (allowing it to be labeled bi-partisan) and his endorsement of John McCain in 2008. On some issues, he's obviously been very good, but it's hard for me to look past those two.  
[ Parent ]
Oh, and for the record...
Linda McMahon will have a better chance of winning in two-way than in a three-person race with Lieberman.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
All Democrats
have to do is remind Connecticut about how Linda McMahon was complacent in the deaths of several wrestlers. And the DSCC can do a saturation buy and play the ad below for a month.



19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
If Linda McMahon couldn't defeat Richard Blumenthal and his supposedly
major gaffe in 2010 of all years. What would lead to a victory for her in 2012.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
To play devil's advocate
McMahon lost to Blumenthal after a major gaffe in 2010, but Blumenthal was starting out as the state's most popular politician iirc, so it's not clear how most popular+big gaffe compares to less popular+no gaffe.  

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)
[ Parent ]
If she has the GOP field to herself and the Dem side is a nasty, costly mess...
I suspect anything can happen, especially if Susan Bysiewicz is the Democratic nominee.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
I think not the same here

I think a two way election is better for the democrats. In a three way race the result would be closer and the chance of Mac Mahon win would be higher. Bysiewicz or Murphy can win by double digits in a two way race, but I would not tell the same in a three ways race.
[ Parent ]
No
You're forgetting its a presidential year, and Dem turnout will be high. 2010 was her best shot.  
[ Parent ]
I don't agree at all
I think the numbers she pulled last year against then-Atty. Gen. Blumenthal are her ceiling. Blumenthal was a terrible candidate in a terrible year for Democrats, and McMahon absolutely swamped the state and every media market touching any corner of Connecticut with out-of-pocket cash. She still lost convincingly.

She'll be hoping Secy. Bysiewicz wins the primary, but if she's catching heat from the (largely non-Connecticut) crowd of liberals and moderates here, I can only imagine what will happen when Rep. Murphy gets his campaign going. Still some potential for Rep. Courtney to emerge, but I suspect he'll hold his fire rather than tussle with a fellow member of the congressional delegation. (Then again, I was wrong about Sen. Lieberman running, apparently...)

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
I'd quibble with one point
That being that Blumenthal was a terrible candidate, I think he was a good candidate who ran a terrible campaign. The primary reason he was able to get past the Vietnam issues was because he had so much goodwill built up and that was a large part of why he was a good candidate.

I do agree with the larger point that this is not good news for McMahon and the Republicans. If McMahon could really coalesce the Republicans and get 40% of Indies it's possible that she could narrowly pull it out. But in a 2 way race in a presidential year its almost impossible to pull it out.

[ Parent ]
Agreed.
He seems like a good guy who does the right things, just that he has a rather big problem with charisma.

That said, I don't see enough people preferring McMahon to Bysiewicz, no matter how much McMahon keeps talking about Bysiewicz's trying to run for AG or not having enough ballots in Bridgeport or declaring Malloy the winner.  The first two just sound like politics geek material, and that last one might rile up a few conservatives, but McMahon is no longer an unknown quantity, and many people don't really like her much.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Besides the fact that Malloy did win.
It wont register that much with the normal population.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Against Murphy
McMahon's strongest base was in Litchfield County, that's Murphy's district. McMahon was exceptionally weak in Eastern Connecticut and in the cities. She would need to run up the score in Litchfield and Fairfield. I don't see how she does that against Murphy in a Presidential year. Especially if some Southern Evangelical or Sarah Palin is the GOP nominee. She'd at least need a Romney.  
[ Parent ]
For the record, no she doesn't, a 3-way is her best bet......
As another commenter in this subthread noted, her ceiling is pretty much what she got vs. Blumenthal.  If she can't top 43% in a 2-way in the strongest possible Republican year, she can't do any better than that in a Presidential year with Obama turnout.

We had this debate in another comment thread, I know.

The notion she'll bleed Republicans to Lieberman as an indy is badly misguided.  They'll stick with her.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
the good news
is we don't need a state court to tell us she's unqualified this time
ROFL
Though, for what it's worth, at least this time she came prepared, armed with an internal poll.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
McMahon
I seriously bet you that, once Linda starts advertising, most people will be thinking "oh, no, not this shit again".

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
HAHAHAHAHA
I always wondered what the effect of relentlessly harassing the voters on behalf of your opponent would be. For it to matter, you'd have to do it to enough people that people would notice something was up, which would probably make your opponent realize what was going on and deny that it was him. And unless it was so close to the election that it didn't become a story in time for word to get out, wouldn't it backfire?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I wasn't in CT during the Senate campaign
But based on what I heard, McMahon's ads eventually started generating negative marginal utility. If she wants to make a fool of herself again, she's more than welcome to.

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)
[ Parent ]
"I'm Linda McMahon, and I approve this message...
By now, unless you've been in a coma, you've probably seen one of my ads. Maybe you saw one one or two in the last five minutes on television. Perhaps you saw one of several full page ads I took out in various newspapers. Or maybe you heard one on the radio. Chances are, if you have an IP address from Connecticut, you have a pop up window from me that gets past all firewalls. How about the crop dusters that are spelling out my name? There's also a series of parades that will be held, complete with elephants and fireworks, each Saturday morning at 7:00 AM, but down residential streets only.

And you know what? Unless you people vote for me, I am going to keep doing it, well past the election. Think I'm kidding? Just try me! I'll make you wish you were deaf and blind!

Once again, I'm Linda McMahon, and the only way I am going away is if I am hit by an asteroid."  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Hahahahaha.
I hope Meg Whitman moves to Connecticut and decides to run in the primary against McMahon. That can be Connecticut's punishment for voting for Lieberman in 2006. Take that, Connecticut!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Markos
throws his support behind Chris Murphy:

Chris Murphy is THE candidate for CT-Sen in 2012.

http://twitter.com/markos/stat...

I agree with Markos on this. Murphy would be the stronger candidate, both on the campaign trail and position wise. I fear that Bysiewicz will crack under the pressure and have some nightly news worthy gaffes like Martha Coakley a year ago.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

This is one where I think netroots, grassroots, and party establishment all agree......
Chris Murphy was regarded a rising star even before he knocked off Nancy Johnson, and that hasn't changed.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of jockeying behind the scenes to persuade Bycewicz to drop out.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Is it just me, or has there been a LOT of Senate turnover...
... the past decade? Maybe it isn't more than usual, but it does seem like there are LOTS of old bulls leaving. I mean, how many senators are there from the '70s now? As best I can tell, just Inouye, Leahy, and Baucus.

How many senators will even be left from the '80s post-2012? Grassley, Harkin, Kerry, Reid, McConnell, McCain, Mikulski, Bingaman (if he doesn't retire). That seems to be it. Am I forgetting any?  

from only the 80s?
or earlier?  i believe rockefeller, leahy, both akaha and inyoue were from before the 80's.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Well, I forgot both Rockefeller and Akaka
I mentioned Leahy (from the '70s). Rockefeller was from the '80s, and Akaka actually entered in 1990.  
[ Parent ]
there
has been a huge amount of turnover

i don't know the evidence, but i've read it.

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

[ Parent ]
yes

Thing is, the turnover was relatively low during the late 1970s, 1980s and 1990s.  The Senate got seriously aged and full of people who were in a very long time (e.g. Bob Byrd, Ted Kennedy, Strom Thurmond, Inouye and Akaka, Cochran, iirc Ted Stevens, and I'm undercounting Republicans) in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

That aging and the conservative do-nothing election mandates made for the really slow and lazy and annoyed, and somewhat out of touch, Senates of the 1990s and early 2000s.

We've been making up for it with the relatively high turnover in elections starting with imho 2004.  The real change, though, is in the dying away of the really long term Senators, notably Kennedy.  Voters are also starting to knock out relatively old Senators- Specter, for example.  I suspect we're currently seeing the last Senators who stay in office 30+ years and get reelected after age 80.

Average stay in the Senate is about three terms, iirc- 18 to 20 years.  That means a turnover of about 10 per federal election.  

[ Parent ]
Yup, forgot Cochran
I forgot Cochran - yeah, he's from the '80s, I think.  
[ Parent ]
70's


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Jay Rockefeller?
   I don't know when he was first elected but he has been around for awhile. He was the Junior Senator from WV for a long time.  

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
'84
He defeated John Raese by the narrowest of margins in the Reagan landslide.  
[ Parent ]
Goes to show how awful a candidate Raese is
Sen. Rockefeller is dramatically to the left of the West Virginian electorate and had a similar old-money/quasi-carpetbagger profile, yet Raese couldn't even top him in 1984. After spending 16 years meditating on his mistake, in another Republican wave year, he gets his ass handed to him by a guy most West Virginians would have rather kept as governor than sent to the Senate.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
16? Try 26.

[ Parent ]
I wonder if that's
Some kind of record for time between unsuccessful major party Senate bids.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)
[ Parent ]
Actually 22
He ran against Byrd in 2006.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)
[ Parent ]
Sounds like
he'd make an excellent addition, if I haven't added him already, to my political venture capital fund that would fund the carpetbagger candidacies of people like Sharon Angle, Alan Keyes, and other unelectable individuals around the country.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
The sad thing is
that Raese is one of the most electable people in the WV-GOP.

The Republicans in West Virginia have committed gross malpractice in their party building. A particularly telling statistic is this: In all Gubernatorial elections, and all but 1 of WV's competitive senate races in a 44 year period, from 1956 to 2000, one of 5 names was on the Republican ticket.

Gov:
Underwood 1956, 1964, 1976, 1996, 2000
Revercomb 1960
Moore 1968, 1972, 1980, 1984, 1988
Benedict 1992

Sen:
Revercomb 1958
Underwood 1960
Moore 1976
Benedict 1982
Raese 1984

The lone exception was John Hoblitzell in 1958.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)

[ Parent ]
Whoops
Fuzzy math.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
in fairness..
Rockefeller was a 2 Term Governor running for the Senate in a state that was mainly default D for decades.  It would be like calling Hillary a carpetbagger in the 2022 NY-Gov race.  And 1984 wasn't a wave at all.  Reagan had no Senate coattails.  The only pickup was Mitch McConnell, and they lost TN, IA, and IL.  Raese (R-FL/WV/?) is terrible.  But I'd say his loss in '84 is more like Fiorina's or Rossi's, and not like Angle's or Buck's.
[ Parent ]
Bysiewicz won't win
the primary. She's damaged goods. And she's not an impressive speaker at all - that is, when she shows up for her press conferences.

The only reason she may be polling better than Murphy at this point is that she's held statewide elective office for a long time. Murphy, on the other hand, represents only about a fifth of the state.

But Murphy's impressive on the stump - and has a very strong voting record that's in sync with the state's sensibilities. He'll make up for any name recognition deficit very quickly.

PS. I doubt Courtney runs. My sense is that his interest in the race is just a move to raise his profile.

CT-Sen: Bysiewicz Will Challenge Lieberman | 161 comments

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