Argh!

I think we should password protect some of these maps so GOP legislators can't see them!  Nice work.

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by: TXMichael @ Mon Jan 17, 2011 at 19:40:29 PM UTC

Interesting

choice to go after Visclosky rather than Carson to create a 8-1 plan. You wind up with a messier map, but one that probably runs a lower risk of a dummymander based on PVIs alone.

The problem here is that the 2 incumbent Dems still have a shot at re-election (albeit not a great one). Joe Donnelly could probably win your 6th in a neutral-to-good year, and the same could hold for Visclosky in your 1st.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)

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by: shamlet @ Mon Jan 17, 2011 at 19:46:42 PM UTC

I think

Dems could still win the two Region-based districts. Visclosky is probably a goner, but Donnelly (or someone like him) could win these districts in a neutral-to-good year.

I still think the best option for the GOP is to make one ultra-safe northern district, make Donnelly's almost entirely rural and go for 7-2 (though I think the 8th will be won back by a good Dem in the near future regardless). But I guess if you're going for broke, this is a better idea than cracking Indianapolis, which is a real fool's errand.  

20, Democrat, KY-01

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by: westkydem @ Mon Jan 17, 2011 at 20:10:37 PM UTC

The 9th doesn't look extremely different

from where it is now. In fact this map has all of Bloomington in the 9th district. What would stop someone like Baron Hill from at least coming close?

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

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by: ndrwmls10 @ Mon Jan 17, 2011 at 20:13:27 PM UTC

yeah

Bloomington won't allow itself to have a Republican congressman for long.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

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by: HoosierD42 @ Mon Jan 17, 2011 at 22:31:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Todd Young lives in Bloomington.

I really don't think that changes anything though. Right now a good portion of the west side of the city is in the 4th district. This map could make it possible for a Baron Hill comeback, but he doesn't want to run again. So now we have to find someone who can appeal to both Bloomington and the rural areas like Hill could. I have to say after 2008 I would have never expected Hill to lose any reelection.    

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

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by: ndrwmls10 @ Mon Jan 17, 2011 at 22:37:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Baron Hill

Hill Says Goodbye

The Democrat told the group that his visit to all ten counties in the ninth district is not a "farewell tour", as he still has the drive to run for elected office... but he doesn't know where or when he might run again. Hill said 2010 was a "bizarre election year" that made it next to impossible for Democrats to win.

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by: roguemapper @ Mon Jan 17, 2011 at 22:49:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm not sure what it means.

Would he consider running again in 2012? Or is he looking at a different office? Turnout was low. I think a Baron Hill like candidate could win in 2012 if the district is similar to what it is now.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

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by: ndrwmls10 @ Mon Jan 17, 2011 at 23:03:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think

It means that he'll wait to see what the legislature does with redistricting and then he'll decide. If the legislature leaves IN-09 substantially the same (as in this proposed map) then I personally think he will most likely run again. His tour of the district certainly suggests that it's at least a possibility in his mind.

When asked at another time (I don't have the article on hand) he made some non-committal statement about how the district may look very different after redistricting. It's also worth noting that in 2008, as Obama got 50%, Baron Hill won with 58%.

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by: roguemapper @ Mon Jan 17, 2011 at 23:08:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well 49%, but President Obama's turnout

machine could really help if things remain as they are or at least similar.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

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by: ndrwmls10 @ Mon Jan 17, 2011 at 23:10:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

would he be the only

congressman to hold office 3 non-consecutive times?

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

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by: jncca @ Tue Jan 18, 2011 at 01:04:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

No, Henry Clay did this (on top of four non-consecutive Senate tenures)

There were probably others, perhaps with 4 or more non-consecutive tenures.

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by: Nichlemn @ Tue Jan 18, 2011 at 13:21:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Joseph Gurney Cannon

had 3 non-consecutive tenures.

Also: Trivia Question. What was the highest number of re-matches between two congressmen in the last 100 years? (Hint: it's far more than Hill-Sodrel's 4)

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)

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by: shamlet @ Tue Jan 18, 2011 at 14:38:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Daniels

is preparing for a presidential run, and he'll want to have reformer cred.  He can't really veto a gerrymander because it could be overrided with a simple majority, but I don't think the R legislature will want to be in open disagreement with an R gov. My guess is the number will stay mostly the same, or maybe an elimination of Donnelly for super safe 1st, since Visclosky is the Dem power broker now.

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by: IndianaProg @ Mon Jan 17, 2011 at 20:27:35 PM UTC

Most Likely Scenario

Is that Donnelly is eliminated and the 1st swings over to South Bend. You are right, I doubt Republicans will try to push their luck with something like this map, I just wanted to see if I could get down to 1 Dem district.

19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem

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by: knickelbein5 @ Mon Jan 17, 2011 at 20:58:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

On this map, Joe Donnelly resides in the 3rd district

He could beat Stutzman in a good year or another competent Democrat could win it. The 8th and 9th are still winnable for a good Democrat also.

Visclosky might in that district, but in the event a Republican did win it, it would be troublesome for them to hold. As for IN-4, I'm not sure that Rokita wouldn't have problems from a Brad Ellsworth or Baron Hill sort of candidate.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

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by: DrPhillips @ Mon Jan 17, 2011 at 20:34:41 PM UTC

I remember one map a long time ago

that had a long, serpentine majority-minority district that stretched from Indianapolis up to Gary, essentially packing most of the Democratic strongholds into a single district. It was one of the scariest things I've ever seen.  

Male, VA-08

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by: drobertson @ Mon Jan 17, 2011 at 20:39:13 PM UTC

Wouldn't that be

a racial gerrymander that would be struck down?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Mon Jan 17, 2011 at 20:40:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It might be

But I think that you could make the case that it is a partisan gerrymander packing democrats into one district instead of a racial gerrymander. I believe if the GOP could make the case that they were just trying to draw all the 90% Democratic areas into one district, and those 90% Democratic areas just happened to be 90% black areas as well. It's really one of the most sketchy areas of VRA law, IMO.

Male, VA-08

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by: drobertson @ Mon Jan 17, 2011 at 20:52:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The courts

Would look at the records of how the district was drawn. If the records revealed that race statistics were utilized, then it would be a violation of Bush v Vera. If the Republicans were smart and only utilized voting statistics, then it would not.

Unless the Supreme Court does what it would've done in Hunt v Cromartie had O'Connor not been on the Supreme Court at the time and instead rules that a partisan gerrymander that has the same effect as a racial gerrymander is unconstitutional in any event.

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by: roguemapper @ Mon Jan 17, 2011 at 20:58:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Like this?

46% White, 40% Black

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

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by: TheGradyDem @ Tue Jan 18, 2011 at 00:19:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Here it is

Here is the map:

http://i700.photobucket.com/al...

From this diary:

http://swingstateproject.com/d...

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by: emilysdad @ Tue Jan 18, 2011 at 04:36:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

What a great map--its amazing what

technology can do.  Thanks for posting.

For several of the reasons that others mentioned I think the GOP will go 7R-2D.  CD1 will be Lake-Porter with the balance being from laPorte.  Then Laporte and the rest of CD1 goes to CD4.  

CD2 will be St Joseph-Elkhardt & Koscuiko then head South.

CD8 & CD9 will be stronger R.

The 2001 map was a democratic hit job while 1991-1981 were GOP hit jobs.  I think the GOP will settle for Donnelly's scalp and move on.  

A man's got know his limitations or don't try to stretch that single into a double if Wille Mays is in the outfield.  

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by: rdelbov @ Mon Jan 17, 2011 at 21:02:47 PM UTC

I doubt very much

that the Leg will mess that much with CD1. Lake County has nothing culturally in common with the rest of the state, and a district like that would just end up pissing off everyone drawn into it.

I tried the same thing with a CD7 gerrymander that cracked Marion County and spilled Carson's district into the surrounding ultra-red countryside....but it really wouldn't work any better than your CD1 gerrymander. You can't mess with Visclosky or Carson without a LOT of blowback from BOTH sides of the political spectrum, mostly (but not entirely) centering around racial tension and/or the urban/rural divide.

Donnelly, on the other hand, is fair game, and is pretty much hosed. The gerrymander doesn't even have to be that blatant - just give Michigan City to the 1st and add more of Koscuiscko and Elkhart counties to compensate.

FYI, Donnelly has said he'd run in whichever district South Bend was in, so he'd probably actually go for the 6th. Though there's no way putting the industrial corridor and downstate in the same district would fly, either.

And like someone else said, you can do a LOT more to shore up CD9 for the R's. At least draw in Dearborn County, which was 70% McCain. I doubt that CD9 won't encompass the entire Indiana portion of the Cincinnati media market by the time the ink dries on the new plan.  

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by: notanothersonofabush @ Mon Jan 17, 2011 at 22:00:03 PM UTC

1982 Redux?

This is reminiscent of the 1982 GOP gerrymander in Indiana, which included packing three Democratic Congressmen into the same district.

It was such a dummymander that by 1990 Indiana had a 8D-2R delegation.

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by: emilysdad @ Mon Jan 17, 2011 at 22:18:56 PM UTC

There you have it

to a tee for that 1982 plan. The flaw in that plan was that Burton's seat was way too republican.  Not that he minded but it had a ripple effect.   It was too much and too far.

The 2001 map nearly did the same as Donnelly barely survived.

Go 7-2 and be happy.  When you face high water mark it off and move on.

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by: rdelbov @ Mon Jan 17, 2011 at 22:37:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I was messing around some time ago

and did this. . .

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by: andgarden @ Tue Jan 18, 2011 at 02:15:47 AM UTC

My goodness

another ugly map with pretty colours.  Gary to Fort bend to  Elkhardt.  Another astounding example of what can drawn.

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by: rdelbov @ Tue Jan 18, 2011 at 02:35:53 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well, FWIW, I think

the GOP can remove Andre Carson. I'm not sure they'd like the political fallout, but they can do it.  

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by: andgarden @ Tue Jan 18, 2011 at 02:38:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oh I think Carson would be

far easier then IN1 but there might be political reprecussions.  Some sort of uproar about drawing the state's lone AA congressman out of a seat.  The key to beating Carson would be not so much dividing the AA community as putting most of the blue collar and working class communties in another congressional district.

Keep CD7 anchored in downtown Indy but then go North and North east then attach this to Hancock -Shelby and Johnson county.

Then attach the rest of Indy to Hamilton-Kokomo & grant.  I think that would do it.  

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by: rdelbov @ Tue Jan 18, 2011 at 03:40:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]