Google Ads


Site Stats

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

by: James L.

Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 5:31 PM EST


James L. :: Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
Tags: , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 313 comments
My first prediction
Check with me in November 2012 and see if this comes true.

1). 2012 will be the first non-wave election since 2004.

2). Obama will win because of the improving economy, and Republicans will hold on to the House for exactly the same reason.

3). Republicans will pick up 0-2 seats in the Senate.

If you look at it, the past three election cycles have been very unusual. We haven't had a wave election when a president has won his second race since 1948. One thing I figured out from two years ago - when many of us were predicting how the Dems were going to pick up even more seats in 2010, we were ignoring history.

I've decided not to do that this time around.  

How many seats will Democrats pick up in the House then?
Im hoping at least 10-12.  
[ Parent ]
Nebraska redistricting
http://journalstar.com/news/lo...

Has an article on CD redististricging in NE.

Joe Cooper

[ Parent ]
If Dems don't win the House
I'll say they win 20 seats and get a high minority that'll tip every committee to near even and create a House that'll have to base every decision on compromise.

And I'll say the Dems are destined to lose one of their incumbents (Ben Nelson, but he should at least try to do better than 40%), but have a good opportunity to win no less than 1.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
House uses disproportionate committee assignments
And has since at least 1994, perhaps earlier.  The majority party pads the number of seats it has in committees, by a giving its members more slots than members of the minority.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
My information is wrong on that
The Rules Committee is stacked with extra members of the majority party, but that's only one.

According to the House Clerk:

The total number of committee slots allotted to each party is approximately the same as the ratio between majority party and minority party members in the full Chamber.


28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
There are always a certain number of Democrats in both Houses
who are willing to vote for many Republican legislative priorities. A closely-divided House with a Republican majority will have no problem passing every, or virtually every Republican agenda item.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Well, I can understnd that.
But I also think there are still a small number of liberal Republicans who could help pass key amendments in committees or on the floor.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Very small number
My memory of Democratic support for Republican legislative priorities goes back to the Reagan Administration. They've never had trouble getting a sufficient amount of support to get many things that were important to them through. The difference this time could be if they still have a Democratic president in office, and especially if the Senate still has a Democratic majority.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Yup, the one House R who voted consistently for D legislative priorities
during the Reagan administration was

Jim Jeffords -- yes, the Rep who eventually became the Senator who switched in '01.

However, there are many fewer Ds who are willing to support R legislative priorities today then there was during the Reagan administration.

[ Parent ]
That last point is especially true.
In the first half of Reagan's first term, there was an unofficial majority conservative coalition between Dixiecrats and the Republicans that gave Reagan most of what he wanted.  One of these was Rep. Phil Gramm of Texas, a Democrat until '83.  That changed of course when the '82 midterm elected much more Dems to the House, making it much more difficult for there to be a majority conservative coalition.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I'm convinced the only way
to get some of the supposed moderates in the House to vote for anything is to public pressure them for months. I'm not really sure of the precedent of the president travelling to specific areas of the country to campaign for a certain legislative priority. Maybe it won't be related to any one member but instead a general campaign designed to urge all citizens to contact their representatives.

I bring this up because I'm pretty sure most, if not all, of the State of the Union will be devoted to jobs and economic recovery on the domestic front and believe the most likely proposal for spending additional money will be infrastructure. His style is unfortunately more academic than anything else, but I don't think that prevents him from barnstorming the country highlighting what needs to be done. I imagine we will be seeing something like this in the coming months.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Don't you mean "projection?"
See Rothenberg.
[ Parent ]
Yes, projection
And to answer the question posed in the above thread, I predict Dems will win 12-16 seats, including at least 3-4 in Illinois and 2 in Florida. (Repubs, however, may pick up a seat or two in North Carolina)  
[ Parent ]
It depends on
what you mean by a wave. If you define a wave as something above 50 seats, then no, we aren't likely to see it. But if 30 to 35 seats changing hands, then I can easily see it being a wave election, particularly if there's an even stronger performance on the part of Obama than there was in 2008. For any number of reasons, I doubt the administration is under the impression that having a Republican House and a less Democratic senate will help its agenda be enacted, so I imagine there will be a considerable emphasis on downticket races.

If the Republicans hold on to the House but Obama is reelected, it'll only be by a small margin.

I can only speak for myself, but I only thought big gains were possible in the Senate. I acknowledged it was possible for the Democrats to win a few more seats in the House, but that the gains were limited short of an epic meltdown on the part of the Republicans since they were already into fairly red territory. But the Senate races were in states where Obama won or came close, so I thought we'd win a few of them. I was wrong, of course, but I didn't anticipate how bad 2010 would be for our party.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Fair enough, and I felt the same way
At the beginning of 2009, it was hard to believe Dems wouldn't capture at least some of the open Republican seats. I thought in particular Missouri and New Hampshire were almost locks for the Dems.

I'd probably define a wave as 30 or more seats in the House and at least a 2-4 seat gain in the Senate. I don't think that's going to happen, although I do expect Dems to gain seats.

My projection of the Repubs keeping the House in 2012 rely on historical trends, but history is made to be broken, as they say. Before 2008, the last time a party had two wave elections in a row favoring them was in the 1930's, I believe. It's a volitale election climate, and maybe it's wrong to expect any stability to return for awhile.  

[ Parent ]
Senate
I think you need at least 5 to constitute a wave. 20 plus in the House. Incidentally, I wonder when the last time, if ever, there were three wave cycles in a row regardless of party. Stability has to return at some point.
[ Parent ]
RNC chairman
Background on Reince Priebus is here.

Boehner worked hard to get votes for Maria Cino, former Bush admin official and more recently a lobbyist for Pfizer.

Ah, so Priebus is a culture warrior.
He's largely stuck to strictly conservative positions, coming out against gay marriage during the RNC chair debate and suggesting that anyone who favors a woman's right to choose is "not a Republican."

Good to know he indirectly thinks Snowe, Collins, Capito, Kirk, Murkowski, Biggert, Bono Mack, Dent, Lance, and Stivers are not Republicans.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
That list
is quite short. There are quite a few others that are pro-choice, or at least not 100% pro-life.
Hutchison, Scott Brown, Frelinghuysen, Jenkins, Granger, Walden, Bilbray and, BOB DOLD! come to mind. I am pretty sure there are ore, but I can't think of them off the top of my head.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Yeah, I know. Those were all off the top of my head.
Also Kirk.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Priebus will have a mess at the RNC.
It's over 15 million in debt and they are trying to negotiate delay repaying the first installment of 5 million for another year with the bank.  Undoubtedly, that will up their loan interest.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
This is the best quote:
"In winning the chairmanship, Priebus will take over a committee deeply in debt and beset by management problems after Steele's tumultuous two years in office. The RNC is more than $20 million in debt, according to internal finance figures; a $5 million line of credit comes due in late February, though RNC officials are negotiating a new payment plan."


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
First Lawsuit filed over Redistricting
Sorry if this has been already discussed. MN Dems have filed what I think is the 1st redistricting lawsuit of the cycle.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/-...

I'm not really clear about what this lawsuit says or what it hopes to achieve. Anyone know?

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)

Seems like they're just starting up
the process of getting a court to draw the map again. They would rather not reach an agreement, I guess.  
[ Parent ]
Who's The Most Likely 2010 Loser To Make It Back in 2012?
If he wants to, I think the likliest successful comeback has to be Ron Klein. Allan West is obviously not cut out to be a long term congressman, and the new redistricting guidelines almost guarantee that Dems should get another South Florida district.

Ann Kuster
She almost beat Charlie Bass. Imagine what she could do in a decent Dem year.  
[ Parent ]
There are probably a bunch
Dina Titus
Debbie Halvorson
Melissa Bean
Mary Jo Kilroy (assuming the legislature decides to put the 4th Dem vote sink in Columbus)

and, as you mentioned, Ron Klein.

Others that are possible but not quite as likely:
Frank Kratovil
Patrick Murphy
John Callahan
Ciro Rodriguez
Brad Ellsworth

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)

[ Parent ]
Some things about your list......
First, Callahan was a challenger not an incumbent, although I'm unclear whether you thought that or you just threw him in there as a repeat candidate, not a comeback attempt.  And since he was not an incumbent in the first place, he should be considered as a repeat candidate, if not for whatever Congressional seat he's redistricted into then some other higher office.

Second, Kilroy is famously damaged goods.  While she's not unusual as an incumbent Dem who lost big in 2010, she also underperformed badly in 2008 and 2006.  She barely won in 2008 when a Dem should have won comfortably, and she lost in 2006 after all the prognosticators viewed Pryce as among THE MOST vulnerable GOPers.

Third, Rodriguez has been elected and defeated twice now in different districts, and he's a notoriously lousy campaigner.  He beat Bonilla in 2006 only because the court-ordered redistricting allowed him to force a runoff if Bonilla was kept under 50% in November, and in the runoff the DCCC was able to focus exclusively on his race and take over his campaign which it could not have done before the general election with scores of competitive seats needing resources.  I think Rodriguez also is likely in Baron Hill's emotional condition now, which I'm speculating can be described as "exhausted."  Running for any office is very hard, and to have the kind of roller coaster ride they've both had has to be more draining than what elected officials normally experience.  So for that reason I suspect Rodriguez, and Hill for that matter, won't be on a ballot again.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Some Clarification on Those
I assumed the question was which 2010 losers (of any type) stood a chance of being elected to Congress in 2012. Callahan is probably the only challenger I think stands a good chance of making it into congress next cycle (largely because of the very small number of serious Dem challengers this year).

The reason I put Kilroy there is that I think there's going to be a new D+10ish Dem vote sink created in Columbus (if they don't they run a high risk of a dummymander) Kilroy would certainly be a front-runner were she to run there (though I don't know much about the Dem bench in that area - I assume there are a bunch of state legislators or local officials wanting to move up as well).

Rodriguez is probably the biggest stretch there - but if they want to make Canseco safe, there will be a new, considerably more Dem seat, right in the heart of Rodriguez's territory. That's probably his to lose if he wants it (though I agree, whether he'd want a second comeback is iffy.)

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)

[ Parent ]
Well if you're including challengers
you have to include Ann Kuster since she came incredibly close even as Republicans won gigantic majorities in the legislature and Paul Hodes got crushed by 25-ish points.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Forgot about her
Duh! I should've remembered because I was seeing anti-Kuster ads on Boston TV every 5 minutes for all of October.

I wonder if the legislature will do anything to try and help Bass out. Guinta seems pretty secure and Republicans have a veto-proof majority. Then again, there's only so much you can do when you only have 1 line to draw. (Along those lines, what's up with DRA for New Hampshire? You can't split counties.)

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)

[ Parent ]
not sure...
klein wants to run again. i saw him at a local dem event last week. he's been in elective office for the last 18 years and gave me the impression he is done. he did'nt rule it out but he just seemed like a man who is ready to move on to something else. that said, i hope he does run again. he's a really good guy.
[ Parent ]
What's the Broward/Palm Beach bench look like these days?
If not Klein, then who? West ain't sticking around, and the only other open name that jumps to my very limited mind is Dan Gelber, who got blown away in the AG race last year.
[ Parent ]
I don't think it matters much really
as long as the dem is halfway sane its going to flip.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Oh, agreed....
West is the cheeseburger, soda, the toy, and a whole order of fries short of a happy meal. I just want some idea as to who it's likely to be.
[ Parent ]
palm beach...
...has a couple of good candidates waiting in the wings. former state rep. kelly skidmore gave up a safe seat to run for the state senate. sorry to say she didn't make it. there are also state reps joe abruzzo and mark pafford who i think both may be going places. that said i think most dems in south florida are taking a wait and see attitude. can't say i blame them.
[ Parent ]
Kelly Skidmore
I just watched a documentary on Current this evening about oxycodone abuse, and how Broward County was ground zero for people going to "pain management" clinics (even people from out of state) to get prescriptions for opioids. Skidmore was the driving force behind getting a prescription drug monitoring law passed, which, while not a silver bullet, would help combat the abuse of prescription drugs. That's a pretty good thing to have on your resume, in my opinion.
[ Parent ]
returns
Pending redistricting it would probably be the ones who had the narrowest losses. The new Reeps who won by less than 5% (excluding open seats) were:

Walsh (IL), 0.2% - Bean has this seat back if she wants it
Ellmers (NC), 0.8% - she will need a lot of help, but Etheridge is 69
Grimm (NY), 3.3% - McMahon screwed the pooch and the Dems may want to run someone else
Buerkle (NY), 0.4% - Maffei easily gets this back if it still exists
Farenthold (TX), 0.8% - this district will likely look very different and Ortiz is 73
Canseco (TX), 5.0% - Rodriguez is 64 and who knows what the south TX districts will look like after redistricting
Roby (AL), 2.2% - Bright is just 58, don't underestimate him
Tipton (CO), 4.3% - Salazar cleaned his clock in 2008, I like his chances in 2012
Walberg (MI), 4.8% - Schauer would probably be favored, I don't think this district will be made more red
Bass (NH), 1.5% - Hodes could probably win this back, but Kuster might have a better shot since she came so close
Runyan (NJ), 2.7% - Adler could probably win this back if it doesn't get gobbled up
Johnson (OH), 5.0% - this district may be gone and I don't see Wilson coming back after the domestic violence charges
Noem (SD) 2.2% - Herseth could make a run here, but Noem's driving record won't be an issue anymore
Hurt (VA) 3.9% - Perriello grossly overachieved relative to his own 2008 performance and would have a good shot if the district isn't too different

I think that a number of people who lost by 5-10% may have a shot if Obama does well. In particular I would mention Steve Driehaus, who lost by just 5.5% despite being ditched early by his own party and ending up with no money. I think he'd be likely to beat Chabot if they don't screw with his district too badly.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
urp
Heck (NV), 0.6% - Titus would have a better shot in the new district which will likely favor Dems, although she might have a shot at Heck if the "new" NV-3 isn't that red

Actually it turns out that you can't stick Reno and all the rural counties into one district, so I would expect Heck's district to pick up a bunch of them and become more red. The flip side of this is that the Reno district will get more competitive.  

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
If Heller runs for Senate, his new district will be a good pickup opportunity
the chances of Reno ending up in a McCain district are very low. And Heller only won the open seat 51-45 in 2006, so I'm optimistic that it won't be as fool's-goldy (not a word, I know) as IL-10 or MN-03.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Unless redistricting in NY is very ambitious
I don't think Grimm's NY-13 will be won back anytime soon. Staten Island is still pretty Republican (for NYC, anyways) and the only reason McMahon won to begin with in 2008 was thanks to the unstoppable comedy of errors on the part of the Republicans.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
A lot of these are going to have to wait for redistricting
Ellmers, for one, should be in a much safer district next time around.  
[ Parent ]
McMahon is under pressure to run again....
...and given he's making the rounds to all the Democratic Clubs after not exactly being the most congenial Democrat everyone is under the impression he's seriously considering it again.

And McMahon will almost definately be nominated if he runs unless an elected runs against him which is EXTREMELY unlikely.  Steve Harrison could run again.  But he has proven consistently he can't raise two nickels to rub against one another.

I can think of some folks who could run and could at least make a strong push.  And none of those folks would run if McMahon does.

As for McMahon blowing the race.  He knew very well he was in danger.  Those leaked polls to the media were outliers.  And the dynamics of the race were highly unusual.  Brooklyn had record low turnout like the rest of the state.  While the conservative south of Staten Island had very high turnout.

That's not to say McMahon will have an easy time in 2012 if he does run (and I actually expect he will run).  There is a lot of institutional support he got this year that will probably go to Grimm in 2012 (ie the Rabbis in Brooklyn).  But in a Presidential year the demographics of the electorate should be far more advantageous with higher North Shore and Brooklyn turnout.

The ex-factor of course is Grimm who seems to be moving towards the center but may have to watch his right flank as the tea party tries to literally take over the Republican Party.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
Is Diane Savino
too liberal to win NY-13? I'm sure someone more familiar with NYC politics has better feel on this, but it seems like she could run a smart, passionate campaign.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
Out of the all possible candidates I have heard of over the years
Savino from the 2008 race is pretty much the only one I can remember save ones from my own state so I'd love to see her interested!

She from the Staten Island part of the district, anyone know?

[ Parent ]
yeah, she's from the North Shore


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I really hope McMahon doesn't run
I think the Democrats would have a better shot with a candidate who is more appealing and doesn't have the baggage he has.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
McMahon doesn't have that much baggage.
He was personally popular.  He just lost a wave election where turnout was lopsided and people were voting nationally rather than locally.

Now he is mistrusted by local Democrats.  He's had an icy relationship with not just the more liberal clubs but even the party leadership.  And last year endorsed Bloomberg and Molinaro over their Democratic opponents.  And I might as well add his brother appearing at a Donovan fundraiser just before the election was rather suspicious.

His health care vote lost him the the Working Family Party endorsement (whether or not those who wanted to vote for him had to do on the "Independence Party" instead made a dimes worth of difference is open to debate).  Beyond that it may have cost him some volunteers and phonebankers but probably very few actual votes.

Where McMahon screwed up was not responding quickly enough to Grimm's attacks (particularly Grimm putting up highly dishonest signs all over Staten Island saying more or less "McMahon raised my property taxes 18%").  And in running a campaign centered on how much pork he has gotten for the district making him look like an out of touch political operator.  Unfortunately this wasn't a year where competence was a compelling issue for voters.

McMahon's most important strength is (and this is where Staten Island Democrats always get slammed in) he can raise money.  And raise it well.  He's not attending $25 a head house parties and praying for Act Blue to save him.

The only candidate who debatably would be stronger than McMahon is Michael Cusick who is pro-life, more conservative, and is far less a natural campaigner than McMahon.  And given how careful and cautious Cusick is I wouldn't bet on him running if McMahon doesn't.

Debi Rose and Titone would be too liberal and probably smart enough to not even try.  Janelle Hyer-Spencer who I really like unfortunately burned a lot of bridges on her way out of office.  Savino has done a good job appealing to the more conservative portions of her Senate district in Brooklyn (despite having the North Shore the district wasn't necessarily designed to be an easy one).  But she is hated by the local newspaper for being too close to the unions.  And unlike Cusick she didn't show any interest in the far friendlier post-Vito contest in 2008.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
You're forgetting an incident
He seated Grimm's ex-wife in the front row at a debate. From what I've read here, that probably tipped the election to Grimm.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Doing that was
very amusing in a very sick way, but what could possibly make anyone think it was a good move?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
That was bush league...
...and I know why they did it. I won't repeat the rumor as it's potentially slanderous towards Grimm.  But there was no way the same newspaper who never reported on various Fosella rumors and only reported on Fosella's

...and I'll add the dirty trick from the ex-Molinari aid(!) inexplicably hired as a press spokesperson wasn't helpful either.  I like the guy who ran McMahon's campaign but that didn't show good staff management.  There always needs to be an adult making sure no one out of either over enthusiasm or in the case of Molinari plant malice does anything stupid. Perhaps they would've been better off bringing in someone from the outside like when they hired an Obama field organizer (I believe from the midwest) to run the campaign in 2008.

But it really doesn't qualify as baggage.  Just a bit of ineptness. And to be honest every campaign is going to have a few hiccups.  It's just when you have a environment like 2010 you need to run a flawless campaign to survive and every mistake is amplified.  Grimm's campaign was a mess with terrible GOTV.  In a different year he would've paid for that.  The base and the teabaggers were hell bent on showing up and voting out Pelosi.  Even if they had no idea who Grimm was.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
NY-13
I live a few blocks away from this district, it's the third or fourth most GOP district in New York, one of only 4 that McCain won, barring a scandal or so, this seat ain't flippin' anytime soon, it also has a chance of becoming more Republican in redistricting, if the GOP decides to add Borough Park to it, it's likely going to be a bipartisan gerrymander.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
[ Parent ]
Well, even in a wave year like this one,
Grimm only lost by three points. It is more Republican than other districts in the state, yes, but it's not impossible for a Democrat to be elected there. Of course, as you said, it's likely to change, if not disappear entirely.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I can't imagine it disappearing entirely
Politically, I find it difficult to imagine that there wouldn't be a district that includes Staten Island. If there isn't, the hue and cry from Staten Islanders about their lack of proper representation will be very loud.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Heh, probably.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
How can it disappear?
Staten Island needs to go somewhere, and with half a million people it will be the population base of whatever district it's in (assuming it isn't split up.) You could drastically change the PVI by attaching to something other than South Brooklyn though.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Not sure.
I was quoting someone else, I think. I'm trying to become as good as the people here in regards to the redistricting stuff, but so far, it is not going well.

I'm also trying to learn about specific areas of the country in regards to voter registration and turn out so I can make a contribution that way, but that's going even worse. The information that's available is sparse, or possibly nonexistent, and I'm wary of trying to piece together totals myself. I'm was almost tempted to pay for a service that seems to exist for professionals, but at three cents a voter, that would get very expensive very quickly, even for the smallest districts.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Learn the way I did
Visit SSP multiple times a day for three and a half years straight.  Throw in some visits to Dave's and you'll have enough information to annoy friends with for a lifetime.
[ Parent ]
I've been meaning to
give Dave's App a go and see what happens. I don't know why I haven't done so already.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Staten Island is too big and too much in a corner to disappear....
...and the South Shore is dangerous and deadly no matter where you put it.  South Shore turnout is what turned a McMahon win into a McMahon loss.  It's also geographically just plain hard to break it up in a way that benefits Democrats.

The most obvious way to flip it is to have it go up into Manhattan.  Yes Molinari was able to win with the SI/Manhattan configuration but Grimm is no Molinari and Manhattan's liberal Republicans of 30 years ago are now just plain liberal Democrats.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
Actually the orthodox areas of Brooklyn were a wash this year..
McMahon's people acctually passed out some interesting fact sheets on voter percentages and turnout (I'll see if I can find it and scan it).  The percentages in Dov Hikind and Cymbrowicz's districts were pretty close to 50-50 with Grimm having a small edge in Hikind's and McMahon having a small edge in Cymbrowicz's.

The Brooklyn orthodox establishment has a long relationship with McMahon and came out strongly for him.  That said they tend to be highly pragmatic and like to latch on to the winner.  I wouldn't be shocked to see them switch Grimm's way.

But Borough Park wouldn't be a graveyard for McMahon the same way it was for Obama.

As a freshman Grimm is vulnerable in 2012.  Doesn't mean he'll lose.  I'm betting he doesn't.  And if he survives he's probably set for a long while.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
Borough Park
No part of Borough Park proper is in NY-13, this is what I'm talking about, no chance that BP would vote against an incumbent Republican, the establishment might go with many Democrats, but not against an incumbent Republican, and BPers won't vote against an incumbent GOPer, they're too conservative for that, they only vote for many local Dems because they want to have representation in the majority party.
Borough Park proper is from 39th street till 60th street between 9th avenue and 22nd avenue.
People here (I live in Borough Park) are registered as Democrats for the only reason that they should have power in primaries, so to have power in the majority party, the Dem label itself means even less than in Mississippi.
Anyway, I don't think that Borough Park will be in NY-13, it just has too many people in it, it would make the district much too big.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
[ Parent ]
I know.
Was just using other Jewish orthodox areas as references.  I actually drew Borough Park in my "incumbent protection" redistricting map.  Of course what actually happens is anyones guess.

I don't disagree that it is an area that would probably love to vote for an incumbent Republican.  But until we know the climate of 2012 we can't really say what those who want to curry favor to power are going to do.  And they can influence a large number of votes.

I have no doubt a lot of voters if they were to vote their political instincts and that alone would not be voting for say Diane Savino.  And particularly if Borough Park were to move into NY-13 it would be a sign of a gerrymander to protect Grimm and that would move those with their fingers in the wind towards his camp.

But we're not talking about Mississippi or just wanting to have influence in a primary.  You have large groups of people who want a seat at the table who want to be courted in the general who put their ideological differences aside for the greater good and what they can get for their community.

I agree with you that it's a community very receptive to Grimm who has himself gone to great lengths to try to get to know the orthodox community and build bridges with it's leaders.  But we'll see what the map is and what the political atmosphere is.  Because it also is not the South Shore of Staten Island.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
It is a very good point for begin
For me NY-25, NY-13 and NJ-03 are districts what should dissappear in the redistricting process. If not some safe democratic incumbents will lose his seat and I think the democrats will fight hard against it. I explain my point about New York sometimes. Then since my point Maffei, McMahon and Adler would lose the chance of run again.

In the other side after the redistricting can have very good chance of return:

NV-04: (new) (- 0.6% in NV-03) C Titus. New district thinking in her? If not in NV-03 (surely R+).
WA-10: (new) (- 4.2% in WA-08) S DelBene. New district thinking in her? If not in WA-08 (surely R+).
FL-27: (new)
Maryland: *
AR-02: Can be less republican. Maybe D+. Not in the US House, but... W Halter?
Illinois: *
CO-03: (- 4.3%) J Salazar. This district can be less republican. Maybe EVEN.
NH-02: (- 1.5%) A Kuster. She should run. P Hodes, maybe too.
NH-01: (- 11.6%) C Shea-Porter.

*= For Maryland (2 districts) and Illinois (10 districts, 1 dissappear), every democrat what want to run against a republican incumbent can have some chance. IL-08 with M Bean is in your list, but here every republican can be in risk.

Surely in this group is the key for cut the effect of the republican redistricting in many states and for have some gains.

A second group, surely running in R+ but with good chance:

WV-01: (- 0.8%) M Oliverio. uh.
MN-08: (- 1.6%) J Oberstar? Seems ulikely by age.
SD-AL: (- 2.2%) S Herseth-Sandlin.
VA-05: (- 3.9%) T Perriello.
MI-07: (- 4.8%) M Schauer.
VA-09: (- 4.9%) R Boucher.

I have lower hope for NC-02, TX-23, TX-27 and AL-02 because the republicans have the control of the redistricting there.

[ Parent ]
I want you to understand something
NY-13 will not just disappear. Staten Island is one of the five boroughs of New York City. Not only that, but it's been a restive borough sometimes, with talk of seceding and joining New Jersey. Mark my words: Staten Island will not be deprived of a district. We'll see who's wrong.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
You all have lost me...
Not only wouldn't the Staten Island district disappear in a normal year, but it seems like some of the posters above are forgetting that the Republicans currently control the New York State Senate. This cycle, there's no way NY-13 would disappear. Why does anyone think that's a possibility?  
[ Parent ]
If few words

Because the republican majority in the New York state senate is weak, or should be as weak as was the democratic majority in the state senate of Mississippi or in the state house of Louisiana.

This is only the political game(?).

All what want to keep NY-13 should tell who would cut in his place.

[ Parent ]
In feew words, sorry.

[ Parent ]
Ackerman or Engel possibly
I think the assumption so far has been one upstate Republican and one downstate Democrat will get drawn out. It can't be any of the Dems in VRA districts, which leaves those two plus Maloney, McCarthy, Nadler, Crowley, and Weiner. Any of those would be harder to remove because of geography though.

Last time, both seats cut were upstate, a Democrat from Buffalo and a Republican from the Hudson Valley.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
It is easier for you as republican to find and give the names

But for a democrat it is not as easy to cut one of the own incumbents. Every democratic incumbent will fight hard by continue in the game. All the options what you give are people with more than 10 years old of seniority and Ackerman and Engel both have more than 20 years old in the US House. Not just freshman.

Since a democratic point the easier alternative for NY-13 M Grimm would be NY-03 P King. And many democrats what want not lose the own incumbent will work by this way.

[ Parent ]
Weiner
Does anybody believe Weiner - is not going to run - is not already running for Mayor in 2013? It would seem like his district would be a mighty tempting target, seeing as he could probably be coaxed out of the House with the offer of a lot of institutional support in the D primary (which will, after 20 years, probably once again be the de facto race in 2013 again).

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)
[ Parent ]
Sound too strong for me

I want not fight with you cause of this. Not interested. You can fight with the democratic incumbent what you would cut in the place of NY-13.
[ Parent ]
Communities of interest matter
In addition, user Pan is being realistic. He's not picking a fight with you, he's telling you what can (and in this case cannot) be done.

The situation is such in NY that even with a strong D majority in the State Senate, they would not split Staten Island into different districts.

Otherwise, there would be no reason to have Staten Island as a separate borough from the rest of NY City.

[ Parent ]
True, and political interest matter too

Who would be the democrat what would to cede his own seat for keep NY-13?

The hard word begin when you need to find what democrat will dissappear of the delegation if you work not for save all them.

[ Parent ]
Let me rephrase
The Democrats in the NY State Senate don't really care if they cut Ds or Rs.

If they had a majority of the State Senate, Ds in the NY State Senate would still mostly come from New York City. It is in their interest to protect the "bourough" system of New York City government.

Therefore, they would first cut Rs "upstate" over NY-13.

(As illogical as it sounds, "upstate" in NY starts in Yonkers (or maybe Westchester).

If a downstate district has to go due to population losses, there will be a "compromise": one upstate R and one downstate D would be cut.

And those Democrats in the NY State Senate (and Assembly) would use it to settle scores with their least favorite house member downstate -- probably with glee.

If they were true "partisans," had a majority in both state houses, and had to cut one district downstate as well, they'd go after Hayworth first, then maybe King.

[ Parent ]
I'm not fighting with you
I'm just slightly frustrated that you keep talking about getting rid of NY-13, and I'm trying to explain to you why that won't happen. Staten Islanders need representation in the House, and they're gonna keep having it.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Not in the US House but C Goodwin can be a strong candidate for WV-01

If Charleston goes to this distric. It would be likely if he want.
[ Parent ]
NM-02 and VA-05
NM-02 will switch back event with Harry Teague not running. And VA-05 will switch back too, to Tom Periello if he runs again. Or he might choose to run for the possibly open Senate seat....

31, Dem - NM-03 currently in France
[ Parent ]
Assuming
the district doesn't change too much, how can you be so sure about VA-05? It was represented by Goode for a long time, and even when he was a Democrat he was probably the most conservative in the country. What's happening there to make it more blue?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
VA 5
I don't think it's so much that the district is turning blue as that Perriello lost by just 3.7 points. In a presidential year the UVA turnout would likely be way up, which could very easily be enough for him to win again.

If the new VA 5 is made more red, I would not be surprised if Perriello takes an administration job and moves out of the district, then waits for Frank Wolf to retire and runs to replace him. He could probably hold that district indefintely.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Steele
These days it is very common for people to not run races where they will be thrashed because it hurts their talking head marketability.  So I'm wondering... what the hell was Steele thinking?

If he came in third even I'd accept that he went in thinking he had a fair shot, but instead he looks like Gene McCarthy in 1976, someone once viable but now a joke.

How tone deaf clueless is this guy to be humiliated like this?

Um...aren't we talking about Michael Steele here?
Do you even have to ask that question?  
[ Parent ]
I think the answer should be obvious by now
How tone deaf clueless is this guy to be humiliated like this?

I would be more surprised if he didn't run considering the arrogance and incompetency he displayed in the past 2 years.

[ Parent ]
I think the answer should be obvious by now
How tone deaf clueless is this guy to be humiliated like this?

I would be more surprised if he didn't run considering the arrogance and incompetency he displayed in the past 2 years.

[ Parent ]
projection for 2012
Dems +30 in the House

+2 in Senate (NV, MA, wildcard like Maine or Arizona, Nelson loses, Lieberman loses to a Democrat)

'bams wins  

As I said before, I worry about Obama's coattails
I fear they will be non-existant and Democrats only gain in the single digits in the House and lose more than two in the Senate.  
[ Parent ]
you are a concern troll
You only worry, and never contribute. At least do both. Then I could find your behavior excusable.
[ Parent ]
You should think about
putting your concern troll statements about Obama as your signature.  That way you don't have to type the same thing over and over.
[ Parent ]
Question
Does Tim Kaine staying on as DNC chair mean that he won't run for Senate if Webb retires? Is there any history of party chairman resigning to run for office?

Also, relatedly, Webb has been acting like a douchenozzle lately. I don't know why a Democratic senator from Virginia would attack his own president if he had any intention of running for reelection. I mean, Virginia's not really a liberal state, but c'mon

http://www.weeklystandard.com/...

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

He's sort of an oddball
but Dems in Virginia have traditionally been pretty conservative.  Heck, Pat Robertson's dad was a Dixiecrat Virginian Senator way back when known for being a racist and a total douche (he was uncouth to Lady Bird Johnson, inciting the rage of LBJ, leading him to support a primary challenege and overthrew Senator Robertson).

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
But Webb has a lot of potential
He has 'Future Armed Services Committee Chairman' written all over him.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Only If the Democrats Dump Seniority
Senate Democrats tend to stick with seniority as what determines chairmanships. I'd be fine with dumping that practice, but until they do, Jack Reed will replace Carl Levin. And Reed is both younger than Webb, and holds a much safer seat.
[ Parent ]
What did he do to Lady Bird?
I recently watched LBJ: The Early Years (On Netflix Instant Watch) and I absolutely fell in love with her. Of course it was a movie representation, but still.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Lady Bird went out on a campaign
by train to drum up support for the Civil Rights Act and the VRA and to speak with key Senators to convince them to vote for it.  Senator Robertson flatly refused to meet with her.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I remember
reading how hostile crowds were to her in the Deep South when the Civil Rights Act of the 1960s were controversial. I heard the same thing from people on television last week when people were talking about what happened to Gabby Giffords.

I remember reading they threw rotten vegetables at her, or something similar, in Mississippi. They were even worried that someone might try to kill her, but she campaigned for it anyway.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
LBJ
is a fascinating President to study. That movie was great as well.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I actually only watched the movie
because Patti Lupone was in it, but I found a new interest.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
I
watched it because I'm a political nerd with too much time on my hands.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I hate politics!
It's the furthest thing from my mind. I mean what could be least important! :)

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
You
sound like my ex wife. She was a Republican to boot. Opposites don't attract.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
My US History AP teacher
was very liberal Democrat and she was married to a supposedly very conservative Republican. She said they were happily married. I guess they don't talk politics. Oh and I love politics.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
James Carville + Mary Matalin


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
James Carville is on Real Time right now.


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Pissing off LBJ by being rude to his wife
That has to rank as one of the dumbest things ever done -- and not just in politics!  I mean, would you want to be on the business end of that smackdown!?!
[ Parent ]
I don't really find what Webb is saying that objectionable
Partially because I agree with him (and before anyone gets rolling, I concede that this is not the place to discuss that, but I wanted to disclose any bias on my part) and partially because it's good politics.

Webb has a reputation for being a crusty iconoclast who isn't really comfortable with how Congress works, and this kind of statement can play perfectly into that. It's not about trying to make himself seem less friendly to Obama, or less liberal, or whatever else you prefer; arguably, this is about conceding that Congress collectively doesn't know what it's doing, which I think a majority of Webb's constituents would probably agree with.

Or maybe he's just being Jim Webb and bashing things because he can.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Absolutely agree

[ Parent ]
Arizona 8th District
This may be insensitive and not appropriate to discuss right now, but I was wondering what impact the Tucson shooting would have on Giffords' reelection chances. She won only 49% of the vote last November running as a moderate Dem against a Tea Party candidate.

Could the sympathy generated from the people especially in the 8th district give her the safest path to reelection? Is there any precedent where a Congressman/woman experienced some traumatic event that led to an outpouring of sympathy that resulted in an easy reelection?

The closest I can think of
Is Tim Johnson (D-SD) who had a sort-of stroke right after the 2006 elections and won easily in 2008. He won by about 500 votes in 2002.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
2000 Missouri senate
Jean Carnahan narrowly defeated incumbent Republican John Ashcroft. Her husband Mel Carnahan was actually on the ballot but he died in a plane crash shortly before the campaign and Jean took over for him. Lots of people believe the sympathy vote helped carry Jean to victory.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
My memory of MO-Sen 2000 is very different......
That the Democratic L.G.-turned Governor (can't remember his name) would appoint Jean to fill the seat if Mel "won" was confident speculation, but not to the point that voters were consciously voting for Jean.  I don't think they were at all, they were voting for a dead man who they liked and were still mourning.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Also Aschcroft and Mel Carnahan ran a notoriously nasty campaign
Before Carnahan died. Carnahan voters were motivated to try to keep Ashcroft out even with the loss of their candidate.  
[ Parent ]
The base Dem voters, maybe, but not swing voters, because Ashcroft was winning...
...by low-to-mid single digits in the polling leading up to Mel's death.  It was close enough for both sides to bite fingernails, but Ashcroft definitely was up.  I remember at the time thinking that, ironically, had Mel not been in a plane crash, he would have lost.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
She'd get a GOP challenger, but it'd be a genial, respectful race
This is a district Obama will probably again lose come 2012, so it might be tough for her to score the huge margin you might think. Who knows, though.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
We'll see about that
The district is a bit more Democratic than Arizona as a whole, and with no native son as well as presumably a bigger vote share if he is re-elected, Obama could very well win the district.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I hope this is not the case re: GOP challenger
If, God willing, she's able to continue to serve and run for re-election, I would like to see her run unopposed.  

20, GOP, NH-02
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't.
If she's running for her current seat instead of the Senate, it'd be interesting to see how her opponent tries to win. Assuming he or she isn't dumb enough to attack her personally, it'd be far more likely to be dominated by ideas and values as opposed to some of the usual crap. Call me an optimist, but perhaps it'd convince others to act like adults.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
competition
I don't like to see anyone run unopposed. The point of a democratic system is to be able to choose the people who represent you. Even if the challenger has no hope, I think it's healthy for the candidates to go around the district and debate the issues.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
I agree.
 

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
A lot of pieces to consider there
Assuming Giffords comes back, I think she wins without much trouble. She is a very sympathetic figure now, and it would be a great story for America if she recovers. People will vote for her because, among other things, they will find her recovery inspiring.

In addition, redistricting may create a compact, solidly Democratic AZ-08 centered on Tucson, dropping Cochise County. I've see maps that pull AZ-07 mostly out of Tucson and make it more of a desert and Phoenix district, as Phoenix now has enough Hispanics to support both that and AZ-04.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
I read somwhere
That the doctors expect her to regain most of her mental faculties.  It will take months of therapy before she can think about returning, but each day that passes has me thinking that she'll come back to her office.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Let's hope!
And if she does come back, I personally don't think she'll ever get anything under 60% again.
[ Parent ]
probably
Giffords is a martyr now, and if she comes back it's the feel-good story of the year if not the decade. I don't see her losing an election again.

I don't see Cochise county getting dropped from that district, though. It's always been attached to the Tucson-dominated district and in practical terms it's much more tied to Tucson than to anything else in the state. You could set it up with AZ-8 getting Santa Cruz and most of Pima and a new AZ-9 (?) with Cochise, Graham, Greenlee, the rest of Pima, and part of Pinal, but that would be very strange. Assuming Giffords stays, she would lose half her constituents whichever district she ran in.  

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
That sort of charm might be helpful if she is able to run for president someday...
Just saying.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
I remember reading an editorial linked to on SSP
by a conservative Sierra Vista paper endorsing Giffords in her race against Jesse Kelly. The editorial mentioned how despite Tucson's domination of the district, Giffords did a good job paying attention to other parts as well. Cochise County is very conservative, but it seems like Giffords is about as popular there as a Dem can get.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Yeah
she actually did better in Cochise County than any other Dem running for an office higher than local. 43% of the vote isn't quite something to write home about (especially since Cochise used to be quite a bit more friendly to Dems), but that's better than any of the statewide candidate (only Rotellini and Kotterman cleared 40% there), and even notably, better than the state legislature candidates. Now-former State Sen. Manny Alvarez, a rancher who represented the rural (and, counter-intuitively, slightly more Democratic) parts of Cochise County, only managed 39% in the Cochise County portion of his district en route to a 10-point loss. Alvarez had his problems, but when a big city Tucson politician is outperforming a more conservative rancher from Elfrida by several points in Cochise County, you know that she has some solid political skills.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
She's a lock for 2012 and the GOP will nominate a sacrificial lamb...
...with no hope of beating her, or no challenger at all.

But honestly after that it's dubious to try to guess 2014 and beyond.  Yes Giffords could be forever an unbeatable martyr and hero, but it could also go in the direction of sympathy wearing off after one re-elect, and voters then returning to form and making a choice based on the candidates and circumstances heading into an election.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
base
I think she would have a much bigger margin for error now because her base vote would be much bigger than it was previously. A lot of people who would ordinarily sit out a midterm election would likely be motivated to get out and vote for her. I think she would have to start acting like Alan Grayson or voting like Dennis Kucinich to screw it up.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Let's let this one rest for awhile...
...if I was in Giffords shoes I'd give seriously consideration to getting out of politics and spending more time with my family after going through something like that.

But also once she recovers and assuming she runs again the opposition will have no trouble calling her every name in the book to knock her halo off.  And in district friendly towards Republicans don't discount the real possibility it will be.  The only thing America likes more than a hero is knocking one over.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
I disagree on both counts
First, while I think that's an admirable thing to point out and an admirable way to feel, if Rep. Giffords is so inclined, this is a woman who is so committed to serving her constituents that she flies home to Arizona from Washington almost every weekend; she held minimum-security public events despite numerous death threats; she won, as a liberal Democrat who voted for just about every major piece of President Obama's agenda, in a Republican district because of her practically unparalleled constituent service. It's possible this life-altering event will prompt her to retire from public life, but if I were a betting man, I'd say that if she has the capacity to serve, she will serve; this will only serve to validate her conviction that she is needed.

Second, I'm about as close to a party-line Democrat these days as an independent can possibly be, mostly because of how much I loathe the modern Republican Party. But I think GOP voters in AZ-08 are going to respect the hell out of Giffords from now on, and I think it would be a huge mistake for a challenger to run at her too hard. I can definitely see a whisper campaign materializing about her being unfit for office after suffering a brain injury, but name-calling would bring down the wrath of the electorate; it would be a huge headache for the national Republican Party in a presidential election year.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Im not sure you can really stage a comeback
with a bullet through your head...I fear, her career is finished. I don't mean to sound insensitive either.

22, Social Democrat, German Bundestag District 278 (Bruchsal-Schwetzingen)
[ Parent ]
Tim Johnson did it
Yes, Johnson had a stroke, but that's also a traumatic brain injury.

Of course there's uncertainty w/r/t Giffords' recovery, but I think the Tim Johnson precedent in '08 will hold for Giffords in '12.

If Giffords wants it, and is able to campaign even modestly in '12, she'll be re-elected in a landslide.

[ Parent ]
That happened during election season...
...and the Republicans were totally dumbfounded how to run a campaign against him.  And gave him a pass.  There is a lot more time until election season and not every opponent is so ethical. Lauch Faircloth and Al D'Amato saw their opponents ailments as opportunities rather than hindrances.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...
[ Parent ]
Tim Johnson's stroke was in December 2006
and he was up in November 2008. This tragedy happened January 2011 and she'd be up again November 2012. So there's actually less time until election season in this case.
Whether someone would try to exploit this is another manner, but there's a much higher chance of backlash in this case I think, unless, say, it's very clear that she's permanently lost many mental facilities (in which case I doubt that she'd run).

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
If Giffords is able to campaign even modestly in 2012
that in it of itself would be a significant milestone, w/r/t a recovery from a brain injury.

I think the people AZ-08 more resemble SD than NY or NC.

[ Parent ]
baby steps
She's off the ventilator now.

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011...

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
I thought it was further out....
....though I guess I did forget how long it took for Johnson to emerge in public

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...
[ Parent ]
Another German SSPer, cool.
I'm in district 022, Hamburg Nord.  

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)
[ Parent ]
Ich schaue hier manchmal vorbei,
weil mich US-Politik sehr interessiert. Über Links von anderen Seiten habe ich das gefunden.
Wie bist du hierher gekommen?

22, Social Democrat, German Bundestag District 278 (Bruchsal-Schwetzingen)
[ Parent ]
Oh, mich interessiert US-Politik auch.
Ich möchte nach meinem Mathestudium, dass ich gerade begonnen habe, wohl in der amerikanischen Politik arbeiten. Ich hab 2008 angefangen, mich dafür zu interessieren, und habe mittlerweile schon ein paar Praktika bei demokratischen Politikern hinter mir und arbeite mit ein paar amerikanischen Freunden an Wahlvorhersagen-- ähnlich wie 538.com. SSP ist einfach die Seite, wo man die am besten informiertesten Leute im Internet findet, also hänge ich hier auch gerne rum.  

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)
[ Parent ]
It's mostly been said
But just a bit more local perspective...

First off all, if she could win in 2010 while voting for most of the big-ticket Democratic items despite sitting in a McCain district, then she was obviously already doing something right and may have had a relatively easy go out things for the foreseeable future if last Saturday had never happened. That all being said, the outpouring of support that I've seen for Giffords has been enormous. I agree that we're likely to see the more genial campaigns that had previously been know for from here on out. We'll probably see a lot more 2008-style campaigns, even if the opponents aren't childhood friends like Gabby and Tim Bee were. I don't foresee Republicans ceding this district to her, but this tragedy definitely turns the page on the way that both parties have conducted the business of getting their guy elected.

Gabby's always been very good at understanding the diverse population within this district; she grew up on a ranch in Tanque Verde so she can walk genuinely with rural voters, yet she has an air of sophistication which lets "white liberals" in her portion of central Tucson feel like she's one of them. Her centrism opens a lot of doors in the suburbs, being a military wife has made her a lot of friends in the Davis Monthan AFB and Fort Huachuca communities and her cultural competencies with Mexican-Americans (including fluency in Spanish and a Mexican half-brother) really help with sizable Hispanic community in the 8th.

Also crucial is redistricting. I could easily see a scenario in which the 8th sheds rural parts of Cochise County and picks the rest of the "white liberal" Tucson neighborhoods from the 7th around and including the University of Arizona. Republicans only hold a 12K voter registration advantage in the Pima County portion of the 8th, so those logical, community of interest oriented changes could shift the balance. I think the chances that redistricting will make the 8th more Democratic are greater than the chances that it will make the 8th more Republican. I also disagree with the idea that Obama is on track to lose this district again, even in its current form. I think that if Obama focuses on Arizona than with good organization (which AZ Democratic Party has always sucked at but Gabby's campaigns have always done a phenomenal job of), AZ-08 would be on track to vote for him, at least narrowly. Overall it's definitely a swing area, but also an area willing to vote one way for president but the other for congress (as seen during Kolbe's reign as well), so it's hard to make conclusions about what influence Obama's performance will have here either way.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

[ Parent ]
Redistricting the 8th
The 8th hasn't grown quite as much as the rest of the state - it's possible to keep it almost exactly the same while adding a couple precincts in Tucson. Given that it's a fairly cohesive district as-is w/r/t communities of interest, I think it will probably stay pretty similar.

Also, slightly related, the 8th R+4 PVI is inflated here thanks to home-state effect from McCain. This is really a R+1 or EVEN district and Obama would've carried it were it in any other state. I imagine it will stay as such, and will probably vote for whomever wins the presidential election nationwide.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)

[ Parent ]
No wonder Berryhill lost to Cardoza.
The guy has serious gaffes.  He's new to the State Senate, is given a coveted Chairmanship over the Senate Ag Committee (apparently in CA, the minoriy party can hold chairmanships as well, although much fewer), and blows it all with sour grapes.  He says that the budget deficit is not their (the GOP's) problem.

http://www.calitics.com/diary/...

And with that, the gavel is taken from him quickly after it was given.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

Didn't even realize he was a state senator
thought he was just a Some Dude, lol. after all, doesn't Denham's old district mostly overlap with the 18th?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Different Berryhill
The state Sen. in question is Tom. The candidate in the 18th was Mike. They're apparently cousins, though maybe the incompetence is genetic. (There's also a third Berryhill in the Assembly.)
[ Parent ]
ok, all of a sudden that makes a lot more sense
although I guess Mike isn't as Some Dude-y as I thought.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
The Berryhills somewhat of a political dynasty in the Central Valley
Tom's brother Bill is in the Assembly, they were the first brothers to serve consecutively in the legislature in over 60 years. Their late father served in both houses of the legislature at one time.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
Question from the linked blog
Why does a Republican chair any committee in the California State Senate?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
State Senate is small (40)
Also, the Senate President and the Rules Committee ae the ones who give out chairmanships.  Since Berryhill represents a lot of farmland, it would be logical to give an Ag Chairmanship to him or somebody else who has a roughly similar district.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Ask
Darrell Steinberg why. I have no idea why. Though from a policy, not a political standpoint it made sense to put Berryhill and now Anthony Cannella in charge of the agricultural committee. They do come from the Central Valley.  He also put GOP Senator Mimi Walters (last seen getting flattened by Lockyer in the state treasurer's race) in charge of the Ethics committee. Though I heard Dean Skelos in New York is toying with the idea of putting Democrats in charge of a committee or two in the NY State Senate.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Can you only chair one committee?
If that is true, and there are more committess than Dems, then some Reps must chair some committees.
[ Parent ]
I didn't know that about Skelos
If he's doing that, I'm sure it would be in exchange for votes, in order to shore up the slim Republican majority in the Senate.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
There have been some moves toward bipartisanship in the legislature
A couple of committees in the Assembly have Republican chairs as well.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
RIP Royal Marshall
http://blogs.ajc.com/radio-tv-...

50, straight white male, Democrat(Dan Boren/Gene Taylor 2012!), AL-7(born in AL-5)
sad news
No one should die at 43.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
RIP
But I despise segregationist Neal Boortz.  Anyone who worked for and admired that racist Lestor Maddox is despiccable.  He also said that Hurricane Katrina is a good thing because it drove out a lot of the black population and made the streets of New Orleans "safer."

Also this:
http://mediamatters.org/blog/2...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
IN-04: Cheryl Allen (R) probably won't be running again.
She was one of the Republicans running to replace Steve Buyer (R).  She got 3% of the vote in the GOP primary.

Now, she's been arrested for intimidation in the form of veiled death threats on Facebook to judges and politicians.

"One day, I will have my revenge on your seeking so much revenge on me. Jane, Tom, Matt, Chris, Steve, Monte, Eric, Vickie, Carol, Larry, Debbie, William (Bill), Mike, Penny, etc.," she wrote in one post.

In another posting, she threatened to blow up their offices.

"Right below that, it said, 'I won't have to lift a finger. One day you are sitting in your office...kaboom!" Allen said. "Yeah, I do believe that they will finally get it one of these days. Someday, somebody will, they will be sitting there and something will happen, they will finally get it."


Didn't know
that they made orange jumpsuits that big.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
A key quote from her:
"I understand there are people that are out to get even with me," Allen said.

Delusional to the end.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
Who makes a death
threat to a prosector on Facebook?

Anyway, just imagine how pissed she's going to be once they de-friend her.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Or worse....
block her.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
comment of the day

[ Parent ]
Absolutely crazy
The fact that she had no problem posting very public threats shows how insane she is.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
FUN FACT: AZ-07 is. . .
larger than Rhode Island, Delaware, Hawaii, Connecticut and New Jersey combined.  O_o

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Fun Fact #2 - NV-2
NV-2 is the largest CD that's not At Large...
[ Parent ]
And also
the smallest county in  Arizona, Santa Cruz, is larger than Rhode Island, yet Rhode Island has almost 25 times the population. Makes sense though; Rhode Island is center of a major metropolitan area, while Santa Cruz county is much more rural and a major wine grape growing region.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
AZ
This is sort of off topic, but when I try to draw new districts for AZ the population estimates make no sense. It says that they're done only at the county level, but if so it should show all 3 Maricopa-only districts growing at the same rate. Instead, it shows Pastor's district 4 which is mostly the oldest parts of Phoenix and should be the slowest-growing of them adding nearly 300k people. Shadegg's old district 3 and Mitchell's old district 5 are also entrely within Maricopa county and have much faster-growing areas, and it shows them as having added about 150k people each.

(It also shows Giffords' district 8 with by far the slowest growth when it threw the most total votes of any district in 2010, but that's at least understandable based on county estimates because Cochise is growing slowly.)

The new population estimates looked reasonable for every other state I tried to do, but I don't know what happened with AZ.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
My understanding is
That it distributes the population across the county, but it also looks for demographics clues. It knows that a disproportionate amount of the growth is Hispanic, so it puts a disproportionate amount of population in AZ-04. It's basically a symptom of the fact that so many people live in Maricopa County and they're not settling there in the ways that they did even 10 years ago. You have huge subdivisions that have risen up out of the desert in the past 10 years that 2000 census blocs have no way of accounting for. We also already know for a lot of states that when demographic change (like, for example, the thousands of middle class Hispanics moving into southern AZ-03), the app doesn't have enough information to keep up, exacerbating the problem.

Add to that the fact that Arizona's population actually undershot population estimates by 200K people, it's very hard to say with confidence where specifically people are living.

I think that according to 2009 estimates AZ-03 and AZ-05 are actually a little smaller than AZ-04 (unless that 200K deficit came from undercounted Hispanics), but not at all by the margin the DRA generates. The largest districts in AZ are actually AZ-06 and AZ-02, which are pushing on 1 million. The smallest district is actually AZ-05. AZ-08 is estimated to be the fourth largest district in the state, after AZ-06, AZ-02 and AZ-07.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

[ Parent ]
ah
If they're just extrapolating based on ethnicity that would put much of Maricopa's growth into AZ4.

I just looked at the 2009 estimates for cities and I think you're right about the top 2 districts and the next 2 but I'm not sure about the order. The west valley blew up like nobody's business in the 00s with Avondale going from 36k in 00 to 85k in 09, Buckeye 10k to 52k, El Mirage 8k to 25k, Goodyear 20k to 64k, Surprise 31k to 95k but I can't tell how much of this is in AZ2 and how much in AZ7. AZ6 blew up, no question, with Gilbert 110k to 222k and Queen Creek 3k to 26k. The town of Maricopa in Pinal in AZ7 went from 2k to 45k (!) and unincorporated Pinal (who knows but probably mostly the AZ6 and AZ7 pieces on the Phoenix fringe) 76k to 161k. Within Pima it appears that the AZ8 piece grew faster than the AZ7 piece (Marana 14k to 35k, Sahuarita 4k to 25k) but it's hard to tell because almost everyone is either in Tucson or an unincorporated area.

I tried to make a map based on this that I might post once I figure out how to embed maps. In a nutshell:
AZ1 - loses Yavapai to AZ2, picks up all of Pinal except a southwestern chunk big enough to top off AZ7
AZ2 - becomes even more retiree-dominated, losing Glendale, Peoria, and much of Avondale/Gooodyear
AZ3 - moves east a bit, losing some of its south end and picking up Fountain Hills and some of north Scottsdale
AZ4 - very static, loses its Glendale piece and takes some of the southern end of AZ3
AZ5 - Ahwatukee, Tempe, Chandler, south Scottsdale, east valley pieces (if any) that don't fit into AZ6
AZ6 - Mesa (467k), Gilbert (222k), Queen Creek (26k)
AZ7 - pulls out of Phoenix area and loses La Paz which fits better with AZ2. Yuma, I-8 section of Maricopa, SW corner of Pinal, basically W section of Pima, all of Santa Cruz
AZ8 - Cochise and E section (about 60%) of Pima
AZ9 - west valley district. Glendale (253k), Peoria (163k), Avondale (85k), Goodyear (64k) + adjoining areas to fill it out

On the two southern districts, Yuma, Pima, Santa Cruz, and Cochise put together have 1.39m people. It takes just the I-8 section of Maricopa and a small chunk of SW Pinal to get the necessary population for 2 districts.
   

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Very similar to what I have
with 2 exceptions:

1) Your AZ-9 is really AZ-2 (as Trent Franks lives in Glendale and his core constituency is the west valley, my gut feeling is he'd run there.)

2) My other difference was I made AZ-9 (your AZ-2) wrap around from Pinal through the northern edge of Maricopa to Sun City. In my mind, it makes more sense from a communities of interest point of view to make one district for the Phoenix Exurbs (and the Hopi reservation) and give the entire rest of the northern half of the state to AZ-1. (I know this has been debated before, but that's just how I see it.)

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)

[ Parent ]
hmm
I agree that Pinal fits better with the west valley bubble areas than it does with the rest of my AZ1 (the college town of Flagstaff, the Navajo rez, a bunch of declining resource-dependent areas). But I also think that the retiree-heavy Yavapai, Mohave, and La Paz counties fit better with the rest of my AZ2 (with Sun City and Sun City West) than with the rest of AZ1 which mostly has a fairly young population. Ultimately the rump of AZ1 has to be attached to some areas it doesn't have much in common with.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Geography is the tiebreaker here for me
I think that Arizona deserves one district that will not elect a Rep who is neither from Metro Phoenix or Metro Tucson. There's enough population in the northern half of the state for such a district - if you cut up the retirees in the west and the resource areas in the east, you might wind up (esp. if current population trends continue) with a West Valley dominated district and a Pinal dominated district that only pay lip service to the rural north. At least with my plan the two northern communities can duke it out on a more-or-less level playing field, and are guaranteed to elect someone who will not be distracted by the Phoenix area.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)
[ Parent ]
AZ-01 seems to do that already
The current and previous two occupants are all from Flagstaff.
[ Parent ]
But it won't for much longer
if Pinal keeps growing explosively relative to Northern AZ.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)
[ Parent ]
It would seem more likely to me
that the new district be centered in outer Maricopa County and Pinal County. You can't really shrink the northern half of the district.
[ Parent ]
My thoughts exactly.


Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)
[ Parent ]
yeah
AZ1 can probably keep the mining-dependent eastern parts of Pinal that have more in common with the rest of AZ1 than the rest of Pinal, but Mohave is too big for AZ1 to take the whole thing. If it takes the strip and the Kingman area (which have younger populations than Bullhead and Havasu) and keeps the eastern end of Pinal, I think the numbers come out about right.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Fun Fact #3
AK-AL is not only the largest congressional district, but also the second largest lower-house constituency in the world, after Nunavut in northeastern Canada.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Look at NE-03
One of the counties in NE-03, Cherry County, is bigger in land area than the entire state of Connecticut. And it only has about 6,000 people in it. I can't fathom living in a place like that.
[ Parent ]
drove through a lot of Nebraska on my way to Colorado.
Only place that looked like a speck of civilization outside of farm houses was North Platte.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
NE-03 specifically I ment n/t


CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Carhenge
You should have gone to Carhenge, which is in Alliance. It's a little out of the way from I-80, but I thought it was cool.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
In NE-03, I remember the world HQ of Cabela's
along with Ogallala, which is a pretty cool town.
[ Parent ]
Thats true I forgot about Ogallala
I would have stopped but I sort of had deadlines to meet so could'nt sight see but i've also heard of the town above just didn't notice it from 80. Beautful route though saw a bald eagle among other amazing animals.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
"I can't fathom living in a place like that."
Apparently no one else can either.....

ba-da-boom

[ Parent ]
Look at it
this way: for all of the talk of the world running out of space, there's quite a bit in the western United States that isn't even remotely closed to being filled.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Well, at least I know where to go when the zombie apocalypse happens.
Plenty of farmland to grow food, few people to get infected and wander around looking for brains.
[ Parent ]
indeed I vote that SSP start fundaraising to buy one
of Gleen Becks bunkers and we can set it up in NE-03. But fuck the food shit I think thats a life insurance scam. in fact lets just seek out a more reputable black market bunker dealer :).  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
I know a guy... who knows a guy....


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
who has a freind whose cousion is good friends with this one person.


CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Yeah, and that one guy might know about a bunker.
I'm not suggesting anything, just saying, you know, the option is there.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Cook Electoral College ratings
http://www.cookpolitical.com/c...

Virginia leans Republican? North Carolina likely Republican?

Post mid-term polling from PPP (RV-LV hybrid), Obama job approval, best GOP performance and my state rating (based on these numbers and recent history):

VA (50-45) Romney and Huckabee both trail by 5 (Tossup)
MT (41-54) Romney leads by 11 (Rep Fav)
MO (43-52) Huckabee leads by 7 (Leans Rep)
MA (55-40) Romney trails by 9 (Safe Dem)
MI (50-45) Romney trails by 4 (Leans Dem)
MN (49-46) Romney trails by 5 (Leans Dem)
OH (42-49) Huckabee trails by 1 (Tossup)
WI (47-46) Romney trails by 4 (Leans Dem)
FL (45-49) Romney trails by 2 (Tossup)
NC (46-49) Huckabee leads by 1 (Tossup)
PA (46-49) Huckabee trails by 3 (Tossup)
NV (50-46) Romney trails by 1 (Tossup)
NJ (51-43) Romney trails by 15 (Safe Dem)
IA (50-43) Huckabee trails by 4 (Leans Dem)

An important caveat is that since most of these polls were in the field national approval for the president has ticked up by at least a couple of points and into clear positive territory.

 

I'd
throw NC and IN into the lean Republican column, VA and NH into tossup. Otherwise his ratings seem right. NH especially since independents make up a huge portion of the electorate and swing with the political winds. And it was the only Bush/Kerry state as well.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Yeah
It looks likes a post-2004 rating. I know very well 2008 may well be a one time deal in some ways but Obama still has strengths in VA and NC that other Dems wouldn't have. Indiana is a question mark. It may well be unobtainable again but then I thought that even when the polls had it close last time.
[ Parent ]
Indiana as likely R sounds right to me
There are certain circumstances under which I could see Obama managing to win IN (Palin or Gingrich as nominee, disastrous campaign by R candidate, etc.) but overall I think it is far more likely that a decent Republican campaign quickly locks down IN and focuses its efforts on VA, NC, and similar states.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
But if Obama
ends up losing it, does he lose it by the same margin as Kerry lost it to Bush, or does it lose it like Kerry lost Ohio or Florida to Bush? If he loses it at all, unless it's a blowout, I'd say it ends up being the latter, which makes it a legitimate swing state. Maybe it'll go back to being a fairly red state once a Midwestern Democrat like Obama isn't on the ticket, but if not, and if a Democrat from the Pacific Northwest can campaign there without it being a waste of time, that itself as a victory.

Why do I think it's the latter? Well, Obama received about 405,000 more votes than Kerry did, while McCain received about 134,000 less than Bush did, so it wasn't as if all of Obama's extra votes came from the Republican side. He brought his own voters to the polls. But if those 134,000 or so votes went from Obama to McCain, he would have won with 53 to 54 percent of the vote. That's a solid victory, but not an insurmountable one. And since turnout isn't anywhere close to being at a likely peak, is it that unrealistic for him to find other voters?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
No way Obama loses IN by twenty points
His campaign built an effective coalition for at least competing in the state, but in my opinion what won the state for him in 2008 wasn't the strong victories he won in the usual Democratic strongholds of the state, but was instead their wins in swingy, small cities like Muncie, Lafayette, and Anderson. I don't know if his campaign will be able to replicate that feat in 2012 against a competent Republican. The 2010 cycle was absolutely disastrous for Indiana Democrats (alright, except for those guys in Marion County), and that seems a worrying harbinger for the next election.

All this is with the assumption that Mitch Daniels isn't present on the Republican ticket. If he is, Indiana's off the table.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Well, yes,
if Daniels is the nominee, Indiana is off the table.

I could go back and forth with speculation, but let me say that I don't think 2010 will have a lot of bearing on 2012 except for the effect of incumbency on the incumbents, which in this case is mostly Republicans, and while it's a center-right state, more so than Ohio, it's not Wyoming. Besides, if the Republicans didn't compete there last time nearly as seriously as we did, they will have to build up there structures more than we will.

But that aside, why do you think it went so poorly for Democrats?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
The same reason most of the Midwest was terrible for Dems in 2010
Bad turnout among the new voters that were brought aboard in 2008 and a major swing among independent voters to the Republicans. Some of that is reversible, I think, but some of those indies that voted D in 2008 only did so because of dissatisfaction with the Bush administration, and probably have now shifted solidly back to the Republicans.  

I don't know how the central and northern parts of the state looked, but I think with Baron Hill struggling to win in almost every county outside of Monroe and Brad Ellsworth losing his own home turf around Evansville, that presents a major problem in Southern Indiana for the Dems.

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Not according to PPP
Obama wins indies in most pairings. Obviously it remains to be seen if that holds or not or indeed if it is even accurate.
[ Parent ]
That may be the case in the states where PPP has polled
I don't know whether it is here.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Bingo, Cook is being lazy and using 2000 & 2004 results......
Cook seems to be ignoring 2008 as an outlier.

That's lazy and foolish.

Obama's strength in certain states like IN, VA, and NC is about him personally rather than the 2008 cycle, and in VA and NC the bit of polling we've seen shows he's still very competitive in both.  Even the 2009 VA-Gov exit poll showed Obama very close to 50-50 job approval at that time.

Further, I don't see the logic in saying NH leans Dem while NV is a tossup.  That really shows lack of thought.  NV easily has become more Democratic than NH looking at the totality of results and the trend over the last several cycles.  And it's logically explained by demographics, with the nonwhite vote growing rapidly in NV and giving Dems a slight edge.  That's why the state legislature saw little change, in addition to Harry Reid winning comfortably despite his very low job approvals and favorables.  And it's why Obama won by 12 when no polling said he'd win by that much, and all but one poll said it would be a lot closer.

There are other oddities in there, but overall I think it makes sense to conclude Cook is going off the 2000/2004 map, and ignoring 2008 or other factors, which is lazy work.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I'd put PA in "lean Dem" and VA no worse
than tossup.  
[ Parent ]
PA is similar to
IA, WI and NV, maybe NH too. Somewhere between Leans Dem and Tossup. The PPP poll finished on the 5th. The weekly Gallup average for that week was 48-45. If my math is correct then this last week the average was 49-43. Seems like noise but then he has roughly gained a point in approval and lost a point in disapproval in each of the last six weeks.

[ Parent ]
PA is a must win for Dems
But just like last time, my view is that VA and CO are sufficient for Obama to win the election. If he wins one or the other, success is virtually guaranteed.

Anyway, I think we're too far out to know all of the dynamics at play. In about a year we'll have a really good idea of the situation.  

[ Parent ]
Indeed
And, for purposes here, how it affects down-ballot, particularly Senate races in Missouri, Ohio, Florida, Nevada etc.
[ Parent ]
I actually agree that there are 7 toss-up states, but not those 7...
For my money, those are: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are Lean D. I agree that Missouri is Lean R, but I'd also lump Indiana in with that. Their placement of North Carolina in Likely R is inane...do they seriously believe that and Arizona will have similar showings? I bet there's a 10-point gap there. I actually did an entire 2012 analysis on my own blog last month, and I came up with an EV count of 249 D, 191 R, and 98 toss-up.

http://polibeast.blogspot.com/...

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Indiana - Likely R
I don't think the GOP is going to get caught off guard with Indiana in 2012 like they did in 2008.
[ Parent ]
The question is whether they think they can afford to put the time and effort in Indiana
they might get overconfident or believe they need to focus their resources in the more pivotal state like Ohio or Virginia or Florida.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Doesn't that always happen.
They could possibly feel that 2010 was proof that Indiana won't go Democratic in 2012. That could very well be true, but I don't see the Republicans putting a ton of resources in Indiana.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
McCain had to gamble
I don't think R's got "caught off guard" in IN -- I think they just had to pull resources because of their electoral vote position for the gamble in PA.

Yes, the PA gamble looked like a fool's errand then, and looks like a fool's errand in hindsight, but it was a gamble that had to be made if McCain was still going for a victory in Oct.

Nevertheless, the advantages of incumbency, coupled with President Obama's near native son status in IN, will make that state closer than it should be in a regular close D v R Presidential election.

[ Parent ]
I wonder about that.
I mean, I am sure the factors you list pushed him over the edge, but the fact that they invested so seriously in the state had to move him up a few points. And since the Democrats now have a much stronger campaign structure in the state, perhaps future Democrats can take advantage of it.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I do not see a disagreement
between what we're saying. A.k.a. in future even campaigns, say starting in '16 (post-President Obama), the state might be a baseline 53-47 R/D as opposed to the more standard 57-43 R/D.
[ Parent ]
There is no disagreement.
That's what happens when you have several tabs open and are watching "Brothers & Sisters" marveling over the charm of Sally Field--you misread things. My bad.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
You don't think
they'll make a serious play for Arizona in 2012? I do. I'd say it's the likeliest candidate for increased attention from both sides, although you have both Georgia and Montana ahead of it. Georgia I can see, but Montana?

Don't get me wrong: I think he'll make a play for both of them. Basically, I think he'll make a strong play for all of the states he won the last time, and take at least a serious look at not only Georgia, Montana, and Missouri, but both North and South Dakota, South Carolina, and maybe even Texas. The last one is my wild card prediction. I know a lot of people think I am crazy for suggesting it, but if they've got the money, which they will if it's not a bad year, and if they want to seriously contest the Senate seat, which I think they will, they will want to give the Democratic candidate some support.

I guess I could see him trying for Alaska as well, if only for shits and giggles, but it wouldn't surprise me if it's off the list.

Also, you forgot to list Vermont in the Safe Obama states, but I think it's included in the count.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Oh, I do think they'll give Arizona a fair look
In the end, however, unless Palin's the nominee, I don't think Obama has much of a chance there. I think Obama could seriously contest Georgia against Romney, and I suspect he'll come close in Montana vs. anyone.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Why do you think
it's out of reach?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Frankly, I'm not sure any politician who opposes SB 1070 can win statewide right now
I mean, Terry Goddard was a top-notch, high-profile Democrat, and he lost rather comfortably to Jan Brewer, who was a complete mess in that race. She just rode her affiliation with that law to victory. Obama's 15-point margin with Hispanics can surely be increased, perhaps even by double, but I feel like Obama's ceiling there is around 47%. I mean, he won Independents and as many Democrats as a Democrat can win in that state right now. He can only increase his performance by gaining with Hispanics, but that's hard when they only compose of about 17% of the electorate.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
If AZ follows the pattern of CA post prop 187
AZ will be solid R in '12 -- and lean D in '16.
[ Parent ]
Maybe,
While this might be seen as posturing, it's possible that someone can tack slightly to the right on immigration while being opposed to SB 1070 and not be seen as too liberal but still get most if not all of the liberal immigration voters if only because he or she isn't extreme.

Also, it was a far more conservative electorate than Arizona had in previous elections. For argument's sake, let's change the percentages of liberals, conservatives, and moderates to what they were in 2008 but keep the percentages that each candidate won in 2010. (Side note: Some of the percentages don't add up to 100, so I'm going to add one point to the boldfaced moderate number to try to make up for it but not skew the result too heavily.) Instead of 16/38/46 being split 87-11, 59-38, 11-86 between Goddard and Brewer, let's assume that those percentages held but that the electorate was split 21/43/36.

If my math is correct, that tracks up to about 47.6 percent. Of course, that begs the question, is this still with immigration as an issue? Was immigration what drove a lot of people in Arizona, mostly conservatives, to the polls, or was it just a year that they would have shown up anyway and had something that they would like as a bonus?



"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I don't see the votes in Georgia
In 2008 every single possible Democratic voter voted for Obama, and he lost like Bush did in NJ in 2004. In order to win GA one of two things has to happen: either a significant percentage of white southerners suddenly decide that they love Obama, or lots of new latino residents have to be naturalized and registered.

Arizona seems like a much better bet.  

[ Parent ]
I disagree about Georgia.
It wasn't ignored, but it wasn't contested in the same way other states were, so I don't think it's fair to say that every single Democratic voter turned out. There's also a lot of potential black voters that are still unregistered, far more than the number of Hispanics that are unregistered if what I've seen is correct. I agree that they have to have more white support to win, but I don't think it's mostly a matter of changing minds. I'd assume they'd have to juice their voter rolls in the areas of the states where educated white voters are up for grabs, too.

I'm not sure if Arizona is that much of a better bet, but I think it's still a good bet, better than some people here think.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
You should read Tom Schaller on this
Blacks turn out as well as whites in Presidential elections, if not better.

there's a future for Democrats in Georgia, but we're probably 10-15 years away from that.  

[ Parent ]
I understand
that blacks turn out at an unusually high rate in Georgia and turned out in full force last time, both as a percentage of the electorate and as a percentage of their total voting pool. What I said was that there were still quite a few blacks that didn't turn out and even more that weren't registered, and then even more potential white votes that weren't turned out because they didn't invest in the state in the same way that they did in other states.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Florida is the only exception
It has been estimated that the unregistered African-American vote there could be in the 6 figures. Odd that the least "Southern" of the states of the former confederacy is arguably the most unreconstructed in its voter-registration numbers. Blacks participate at much higher rates in states like Mississippi and South Carolina, which have far more racial tensions in their histories than Florida has.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
My theory on that
is that as the Democrats of previous decades saw their states shift to the Republicans, they were elected with less and less of the white vote. They had to make up for it with other votes, which explains the incredibly high turnout in a state like Mississippi amongst blacks.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
The political and ethnic geography of FL
is really unique. I've studied it a bit, but it still confuses me.  
[ Parent ]
If georiga could be contested with everything the dems had
they might have pulled it off but the problem is most of those resources are almost always put into the more critical states like Ohio or Florida.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Obama bled a fifth of white Democrats to McCain
If he moves center, he might be able to win back a bunch of them.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
I very highly doubt it
though I would like to see some polling.  
[ Parent ]
senate
I think Obama is particularly going to try to move in on states that have Senate elections: MT (Tester), MO (McCaskill), ND (Conrad). His money and organization could help put them over the top, especially seeing as MT and ND are dirt-cheap.

I think they have to make a run at AZ which is not as red as it looks. Its PVI is listed at R+6 but this is distorted by McCain's run in 2008. In 2004 it was R+4 (about the same as NC) and since then it has become more Hispanic. If Kyl retires or they think they can make a run at him, it will get even more attention.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Absolutely.
That's why I think Missouri is likely to be a top target. Even if the state is slowly moving more towards the right, which is far from clear, Obama's presence almost certainly helps McCaskill more than it hurts, and there's no reason to abandon an incumbent senator until very late in the election, if at all.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
It's a given that MO will be a top target for Obama '12......
They're not going to forsake a state they lost by only a hair last time.

I think it's a given that all 17 states targeted as battlegrounds last time will be on the radar for massive investment again.  The only question is what other states will be on that list.  That depends on Obama's popularity a year from now and the identity of the GOP nominee, which will become apparent much later in '12.  The map could expand either way, adding states that were real tough last time, or states that were easy wins, or a little of both.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Is there a reason why Obama is so popular in VA?
I was expecting that state to be lean/likely R at this point.  I know that NoVA is our life line there but he won rather comfortably in 2008 and the indication here is that his status isn't significantly deteriorating either.  

That being said, even if Obama sheds IN, NC, FL, OH, and that one CD in NE, he still has 272 EVs, and the lean states like NV, PA, NM, NH, and MI are places he can reasonably hope to consolidate (ie he's not trying to rely on a red state like Indiana to win).  FL, OH, and MO are probably the key battlegrounds to either pad or to make up for losses in one of the lean states.

[ Parent ]
VA Demographics
There is no reason why VA should be anything other than a toss-up right now. Lean Republican is just silly. It is a toss-up state plain and simple now. Essentially what the Democrats lifeline is that the Washington DC suburbs like you indicated are growing extremely fast. They are now likely over 1/3 of the population of the state. Much of the growth is coming from young educated workers from NY, NJ, PA and other such locations (I am a prime example but am not from those states but it seems like all of my friends are from there!). While that is the case the conservative southern areas of the state are bleeding population and they are not growing. Rick Boucher's former district which was the most conservative district 2008 vote wise is about 10% under ideal size to give you an example. On top of that you have a state that is nearly 20% African-American and you have a working coalition to get you over the edge vote wise.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
[ Parent ]
There are too many "Safe" states and not enough "Likelies"
It's a complaint I have about many early projections. There is a lot more uncertainty 2 years out than 2 weeks out, so more states have a >95% chance of voting for a specific party early on than later on.

I'd put all states at a CPVI of D+5 or less at no stronger than "Likely D", for instance. So that's NJ, ME, OR and WA. This is simply because a Republican should win them in a strong national victory, which I don't think is "Safe" to not occur. (Although, universal swing models might not apply particularly well especially for the latter two states, which are quite polarised. Still, OR for instance was fairly close in 2000 and 2004, so it's not all that implausible that a Repbulican running well could win it).

 

[ Parent ]
*<95%

[ Parent ]
We are too conditioned to think about "close elections"
Your basic point is correct -- there are too many "safe" states in these projections.

The assumption that most of these states are "safe" hold true only in a close, polarized, election, which happened only infrequently pre-2000 -- and almost never when an incumbent President was running for re-election.

(The only "close" Presidential elections that come to mind where an incumbent was running is '04 and 1912 [Wilson-Hughes], though an argument could be made for '48 [Dewey-Truman])

If 2012 is more of a return to normalcy, one candidate will win by 10+ points, which would put a number of of these "safe" states in the "likely" or "lean" columns.

[ Parent ]
Heck, I forgot '76
Even if accidental, Ford was an incumbent.
[ Parent ]
I absolutely agree with this
No way it'll be close. 2004 is an interesting case. Seems to me that without 9/11 Bush would have lost comfortably.
[ Parent ]
My humble effort to do better than Cook
Solid Democratic (149)

1. District of Columbia (3)
2. Hawaii (4)
3. Vermont (3)
4. Rhode Island (4)
5. New York (29)
6. Maryland (10)
7. Massachusetts (11)
8. Delaware (3)
9. California (55)
10. Illinois (20)
11. Connecticut (7)

Likely Democratic (42)

12. Washington (12)
13. Oregon (7)
14. New Jersey (14)
15. Maine (4)
16. New Mexico (5)

Lean Democratic (77)

17. Michigan (16)
18. Nevada (6)
19. Wisconsin (10)
20. Minnesota (10)
21. Pennsylvania (20)
22. Colorado (9)
23. Iowa (6)

Tossup (79)

24. New Hampshire (4)
25. Virginia (13)
26. Ohio (18)
27. Florida (29)
28. North Carolina (15)

Lean Republican (24)

29. Indiana (11)
30. Missouri (10)
31. Montana (3)

Likely Republican (45)

32. Georgia (16)
33. Arizona (11)
34. South Carolina (9)
35. South Dakota (3)
36. North Dakota (3)
37. Alaska (3)

Solid Republican (125)

38. Texas (38)
39. Mississippi (6)
40. West Virginia (8)
41. Kentucky (8)
42. Kansas (6)
43. Tennessee (11)
44. Nebraska (5)
45. Louisiana (8)
46. Arkansas (6)
47. Alabama (9)
48. Idaho (4)
49. Utah (6)
50. Oklahoma (7)
51. Wyoming (3)

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Assuming a close election in '12
I agree with most of your judgements. But based on demographics and what we've seen from the '10 election, I'd probably put WI in the tossup category.

However, I do think it's more likely that one candidate will get 350+ electoral votes.

[ Parent ]
The statewide margins in
Wisconsin were actually more respectable than I thought they will be for the Dems, even given horrible turnout.  I expect Obama to be able to win there if the race is competitive nationally.

And you're right.  This is kind of a silly exercise at this point by both Cook and me.  The margin of error on this type of prediction at this stage is enormous.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
A question for you:
Do you think Props 5&6 down in FL will make a significant difference in helping Dems gain a larger presence in the House delegation and in the state legislature?  I read the props and they seem pretty strong (like Oregon's redistricting rules).

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Really hard to say
It's going to go through endless court challenges and Republicans who are in complete, unfettered control of the state are going to push its standards to their very limits.  If it went as intended, which it won't, I could see Dems getting about three more winnable seats: maybe one in the Orlando area (building on FL-08), one in the Tampa Bay area (building on FL-10), and one in South Florida (building on FL-22).  To be honest though, I have have not mapped it out.  I should do that.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
At the very least
FL-22 and the other horrible districts there will be fixed.  This will be good news for Dems hoping to take down West.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Giffords Upgraded to Serious Condition
http://www.politico.com/news/s...
Great news, she continues to improve. I guess she'll be out of ICU soon.  
Knock on wood
I'm amazed that she has regained the use of her right arm and leg, as the left side of the brain controls the right side of the body if I'm not mistaken.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
My list of states Palin would win vs Obama
UT, WY, ID, NE (barely), KS (barely) AR, KY, TN, LA, MS, AL

I can't decide about Texas. It would be one or two points either way. You will notice I do not have Alaska.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

My List
Solid Palin: UT, WY, ID, OK
Likely Palin: AR, LA, AL
Lean Palin: TN, WV, KY, MS, NE, KS
Tossup: AK, ND, SD, TX, AZ, SC
Lean Obama: MT, GA, IN, NC, MO
Likely Obama: OH, FL, VA, CO, NH, IA
Solid Obama: HI, CA, OR, WA, NV, NM, MN, WI, IL, MI, PA, NJ, MD, DE, NY, CT, RI, MA, VT, ME

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
I agree completely.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I do as well, but I think we may be indulging ourselves here
Palin is not likely to be the Republican nominee in my opinion. So, I think the above is moot.

If she is the nominee, I could honestly see a landslide of Reagan proportions (maybe she wins Utah)  

[ Parent ]
Some of those
states have fairly high black populations, so I wonder, if she's acting as a pair of concrete boots to Republicans in every other state, will there be enough money to turn out every last possible black voter in such states? Of course, for that to make a difference in Tennessee, you'd have to have abysmal turn on the Republican side, sky high turnout amongst all other Democrats, and astronomical turnout amongst black Democrats.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Harold Ford Jr. came within 3 points of Corker
in 2006. If Palin is the nominee, could President Obama reach that percentage.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Interactive map
Here's a map where you can add up EV's by clicking on the state, and making it a Republican, Dem, or Indy win. http://www.270towin.com/
[ Parent ]
I always use Dave Leip's calculator
link.
[ Parent ]
it'll be a different map in 2012`
need a new map
[ Parent ]
It is updated
You can choose 2012 EV or 2008, or any past pres year  
[ Parent ]
I think states like GA and SC are harder for Obama to win in practice than in theory
You're unlikely to get a uniform swing, and these states are fairly polarised so they don't have too many swing voters. Additionally, you'll probably get some black drop-off because the novelty and symbolism of re-electing the first black President is a lot less than electing him initially.
[ Parent ]
While I'm not planning to post on RRH -- for a while
(depending on when they get a critical mass of like-minded posters)

I see they already have some excellent diaries posted -- of special interest here is the different perspective they have on TX-Sen, along with redistricting in PA and OH.

Any D here who wants to make sure they're not in an "echo chamber" would do well to read what they have there -- and come to your own conclusions.

I agree
I read through RRH last night. Excellent content. Godspeed to them! I will read and probably will register and participate, eventually.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
what
is the site name?

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
Red Racing Horses


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
We plan on launching Tuesday
But we have some preliminary content up now. RedRacingHorses.com, not redhorseracing.net  
[ Parent ]
Couple of tech comments
The RRH RSS feed isn't working for me -- when I click a link from the feed, it looks for the site "http". Could be a Linux-only problem, haven't checked.

While I see that you've tried to make the domain registration of RRH private, it still lists what I assume is a real person's name (W****** *******N) as the "Organisation Name" (full name asterisked out) under the whois (at least when I run the -- whois redracinghorses.com -- command in Linux).

[ Parent ]
Is redhorseracing.net
the future site of the blog?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
No
Just a site about horse racing thats above us in Google
[ Parent ]
I see n/t


"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
NJ-Sen: Menendez up 10 over Kean
Not bad at all.
It'll be especially hard to beat a Dem in NJ for Senate in 2012.  He also leads Guadango by 21 points.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Consistent job approval across polling
A little over a third approve and a little over a third disapprove. A little under a third have no opinion. It will be competitive but I don't think he either is or can be made to look unpopular enough to lose in a state like NJ in a presidential year.
[ Parent ]
I'd
rather have the voters yawn when Menendez is brought up rather than hated like Corzine was.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Exactly

[ Parent ]
The more Dem seats we can start to put away early the better
2012 will be hard year for Senate Dems, and we can't afford to have to worry about states like New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Minnesota, etc.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
I don't really see NY and MN
Rhode Island depends on Carcieri and even then I'm doubtful it would be worth worrying about. Jersey on the otherhand will be competitive down to the wire because of the state and the incumbent.
[ Parent ]
That's kind of my point
I want our respective candidates in those races to be on their game in 2011, storing up funds, reaching out to media sources etc. We shouldn't have to worry about them when we kick into high gear next year, and I don't want there to be any chance that one of them turns into something like what Connecticut was last year. The stakes are too high for the DSCC to be screwing around or spending money in dark blue states where we have incumbents.  

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
Oh I think NJ could well be like CT was
Not the others though.
[ Parent ]
RI doesn't depend on Carcieri
RI doesn't like to elect conservatives to national office, especially not during a presidential year and especially one whose stock has really fallen. The only chance is with a moderate like Allan Fung or Scott Avedisian and even then, who knows. btw, moderates in RI can get teabagged, even in 2006 Lincoln Chafee only won his primary in single digits.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
do people in RI still take Buddy Cianci (sp?) seriously?
Speaking of former RI Rs, I read somewhere that he's talking about running.
[ Parent ]
Yes, it's the saddest thing ever.
it almost makes me embarrassed to be from Providence, although my neighborhood/precinct would probably vote against him in a theoretical election as long as the alternative wasn't a Repub.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Bob Dole released from hospital after short stay.
http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011...

Thank goodness, I was a little worried when he was admitted last Friday.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

Cuomo with favorability of 70/17
Even 60% of Republicans find him favorable.
http://politicalwire.com/archi...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
VA Senate
Allen in.
http://www.politico.com/playbo...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
And Kaine is telling people
Webb too.
[ Parent ]
Rather run Kaine in this race
To be honest.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
I just hope the party is ready to rumble.
Allen is very defeatable.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Incumbents who have lost and made a comeback
Can't think of any off the top of my head.
[ Parent ]
Ehrlich is an example of a comeback fail.
He lost by 6.5 points in 2006 and lost again in a GOP wave year by 14 points.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Obviously happens a bit in House races
Not so much statewide. Jeanne Shaheen wasn't an incumbent of course.
[ Parent ]
Only one recent Senate example comes to mind
Slade Gorton in WA -- even though it was for the other seat.
[ Parent ]
That election
was more of a lesser of two evils. I remember Gorton and the Dem he beat were both losers in the last two senate elections and were both almost equally hated by the electorate.

The gems you find on Youtube.....



19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
it must have been...
The new glasses that tipped the election.
[ Parent ]
I read about Chic Hecht.
He was apparently an embarrassment for Nevada in the Senate.  He was backed by Reagan in 1982 to take out Senator Cannon, who was the biggest obstacle standing in between Reagan and building a nuclear waste dump in Nevada.  As a result of this upset, Reagan began work on surveying spots in Nevada for dump sites, leading to the creation of the Yucca Mountain repository in 1987.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Ads have come a long way!
And I think you have to be 70 to run in Hawaii.
[ Parent ]
IMO, if Obama wins, so does Webb
Allen picked the wrong year for a comeback.  
[ Parent ]
Aye
A number of Senate races are in the same boat.
[ Parent ]
Feeling pretty good about this one
Though if Webb bails I'd rather replace him with Perriello instead of Kaine.

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
I think Perriello wants his House seat back
I could see him looking to run statewide in 2013 when McDonnell is up for reelection.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
Gah...Virginia governors only have one term
So not McDonnell's reelection. I just mean that Perriello may run for governor in 2013

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
The impression that I've gotten is the opposite
I expect Perriello to run statewide rather than trying to win VA-05 again. He's certainly young enough that he can wait until a better opportunity to return to elected office.
[ Parent ]
I have to think
He'd be a favorite for AG vs Cuccinelli
[ Parent ]
That is....
if Cooch is running for another A-G term.  He might run for Gov.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I think it's almost a certainty that he's running for Governor in 2013
He knows he can cream the hapless Bill Bolling in a primary or a convention.
[ Parent ]
Uploading an image to a diary
Anyone know what to do when a question mark pops up after I have uploaded an image to a diary? I used to the correct form i think (img src="imageblahbah.com") except ( ) =< > etc. Is it not compatible on a Mac? What to do?

19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem
The first televised Chicago mayoral debate is this evening
Emanuel, Moseley Braun, Chico, and Del Valle are set to participate. On a related note, the Hill is reporting that Emanuel may face problems coalescing the Hispanic vote in the run-off vs. Moseley Braun...

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballo...

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Does CMB have much sway though?
Seems to me many Hispanics who agree with the likes of Guttierez just wouldn't vote.
[ Parent ]
TX-Sen: M. Williams Resigns from RR Comm. to run for Sen
AZ-08: Giffords Could Lose Seat Through AZ State Law
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...
The statute says that
if a public officeholder ceases to "discharge the duties of office for the period of three consecutive months," the office shall be deemed vacant

I have to imagine this will be changed.  
State law can't do that
Congress has jurisdiction over declaring whether a seat is vacant or not.
[ Parent ]
Thank goodness.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
More TX-Sen: Bush 41 Endorses Roger Williams
I think that
out of the whole GOP field, Dewhurst has the best chance.  He's conservative, well-liked, and powerful.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Sargent Shriver in critical condition.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories...

:(

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 313 comments

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

Publisher: DavidNYC

Senior Editor: James L.

Senior Editor: Crisitunity

Contributing Editor: Jeffmd

Search the SSP archives:

Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

SSP Resources

Presidential Vote by CD

SSP Document Collection

Race Tracker Wiki

Dave's Redistricting App

Blogroll

Daily Kos Elections
DemConWatch
Five Thirty Eight
Governing
Hotline On Call
Political Wire
Pollster.com
Prop*50
Public Policy Polling
The Thicket
Powered by: SoapBlox