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SSP Daily Digest: 1/13

by: Crisitunity

Thu Jan 13, 2011 at 4:07 PM EST


MA-Sen: No surprises are revealed in the Boston Globe's post-Vicki-Kennedy-announcement state-of-the-Senate-field story (Mike Capuano, Stephen Lynch, Alan Khazei, and Robert Pozen are the Dems who get the ink). As far as Capuano goes, the story confirms that he's taking a "hard look" at the race and will make a decision by late spring.

MI-Sen: Here's some actual confirmation of what everyone assumed a few days ago, that ex-AG Mike Cox's joining a Detroit law firm meant he wouldn't be running for Senate in 2012. Cox himself says he's out of contention, and he talked up his former gubernatorial primary rival, ex-Rep. Peter Hoekstra for the job.

ND-Sen: It's been clear for a while now that Kent Conrad wasn't going to be given a bye in his 2012 race, especially now that the GOP seems to be on an upswing in North Dakota. But now it's looking clearer who the opponent will be: 44-year-old Public Service Commissioner Brian Kalk is forming an exploratory committee. (There are three PSC Commissioners, elected statewide to oversee stuff like utilities and grain elevators.)

NV-Sen: John Ensign seems undaunted by recent polling showing him in deep doo-doo in both the GOP primary and general election for 2012, and says he's pushing ahead on ahead with his re-election plans, although also admitting that it's going to be "very, very difficult." He's putting together a campaign team and "jump starting" his financial operations (which, considering they're actually in pieces all over his garage floor, may require a little more than just jump starting). This was revealed yesterday at a rather awkward conference for human resources execs where both Ensign and Dean Heller were speakers; Heller told reporters afterwards that he "would be lying to you if I said I wasn't thinking about it" and "don't mind giving voters a choice if it winds up being a head-to-head," although he also had no timetable for an announcement.

WV-Gov: Five different potential candidates appeared at a forum for the West Virginia gubernatorial race. Not all of them have announced, but this makes pretty clear who's seriously in the hunt for this (despite the fact that nobody has any idea yet whether the race will be in Nov. 2011 or 2012). Among the Dems, SoS Natalie Tennant, state Treasurer John Perdue, and state Sen. Brooks McCabe were there; representing the GOP were ex-SoS Betty Ireland and state Sen. Clark Barnes. This still leaves out some of the likeliest other candidates, including Dem state House speaker Rick Thompson and acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin.

FL-23: Rep. Alcee Hastings, unbeknownst to many, is getting pretty long in the tooth, at 74. He says he has no intention of slowing down, though (not that he needs to work fast, to hold down his safe blue district); he just announced plans to run not only in 2012 again, but in 2014 as well, so long as he's healthy. The article cites state Sen. Chris Smith as a likely replacement once Hastings does retire. (Which means the House would get two Chris Smiths, to go with its two Mike Rogers.)

MN-08: Here's a minor bombshell for Minnesota Democrats, where outgoing House majority leader Tony Sertich had been widely expected to take on fluky new Rep. Chip Cravaack in 2012 in this D+3 district. Having just been appointed Iron Range Resources Commissioner, though, he now says that he won't run. The Duluth-area portion of the district has a pretty thorough DFL bench, so they won't lack for a credible challenger, but Sertich had been at the top of almost everyone's list so this scrambles things a bit.

Redistricting: One thing that the Republicans have always been good at is making sure that stuff that can pay dividends down the line is well-funded, but this seems like an unusual case of ball-dropping: Making America's Promise Secure (or MAPS), a 501(c)(4) oriented toward paying for the legal aspects of the 2012 redistricting battle, never really got off the ground and has almost no money, leaving the state parties to fend for themselves. There are also a number of interesting pieces today on the upcoming battles in individual states, including The Fix's look at the impact of the citizen redistricting panel on California (where the switch away from incumbent protection has a lot of old-timers of both parties shaking in their boots). There's also another look at Massachusetts, and also a nice piece about New Mexico that has lots of detail about previous decades' battles. New Mexico is a state we haven't thought about much in this context because its House boundaries aren't likely to change much, but state legislative seats are likely to shift significantly from the state's stagnant east into Albuquerque's suburbs.

Voter suppression: Wisconsin's newly-Republican-controlled legislature is already taking some pains to make sure that it stays that way, with one of their first legislative priorities imposing photo ID requirements for all voters at polling places (and to push for a constitutional amendment that would make that law more difficult to repeal later). They'd also like to move on ending Wisconsin's well-known same-day-registration, although that may not be as likely a target seeing as how it's not only popular but would also cost a lot of money (because federal law says that the state would then need to implement a motor-voter registration system instead).

Congress: This may be the single most useful thing you'll read today: the Hill's guide to pronunciation of all of the names of the Congress members with hard-to-pronounce names. I learned that I've been mentally mispronouncing at least a dozen names; I'm sure everyone will find at least a few surprises.

Meta: Curious how my own gifts for inspiring oratory would look in "word cloud" form, I ran SSP's front page through Wordle.net, and the net result is, well, not very inspiring... it's about as sober and nuts-and-bolts as it gets. None of our favorite neologisms made it on there (NWOTSOTB? Some Dude? Cat fud?)

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 1/13
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Damn the voters of Oklahoma
we were also close to having two Mike Thompsons!

As for name pronunciations, it's nice to no longer have to check campaign ads on Youtube when I'm curious about a Congressman's name's pronunciation (although still for some place names). I'm still going to stick to the Italian pronunciation of Renacci and the Japanese pronunciation of Inoue, and I have to raise my eyebrow at Ensign (come on, people, it's an English word).  

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


MN-08
That sucks, I hope we don't have recruiting failures this year, we really need to compete in almost every district to maximize our potential, losing a top flight candidate like this really hurts.

29/D/Male/NY-01

Ah yes
Naysayers begin! /snark

There are No Republicans in the northern 90% of this district, and the bench is deep, as the post said. My new favorite candidate, Don Ness, seems to be disinterested in such a move as well. He has been asked before, and pretty much said he is happy being mayor.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
Don't count Cravaack out just yet...
He's a very good candidate, and campaigned as hard as anyone. When Republican exburbs of Minneapolis are shed from MN-06 and added to MN-08, it's PVI will likely go from D+3 to D/R+0. It will be a true swing district, like Erik Paulsen's MN-03. Minnesota likes its politicians, and is open to electing just about anyone (Jesse Ventura, Al Franken, Michelle Bachmann). Tim Walz represents an R+1 district in MN-01, and survived because of his high level of personal appeal to his constituents. I see no reason why Cravaack couldn't fit into the same category. If I were Mark Dayton, I'd shore up Cravaack in exchange for making Tim Walz safer.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
That's why the Republican
exurbs won't be shed into that district, not while Dayton is Governor. Instead, a Democratic leaning urban area like St. Cloud will probably be shifted, and perhaps a bit of the eastern edge of Peterson's district. It'll remain Democratic leaning, with local Democrats, in essence, doing much better than national Dems.  

[ Parent ]
Besides that, as OCGoldy
has explained, Waltz is just fine and won't ever be defeated barring a scandal or terrible campaign or both. He's also explained that there really isn't any way to make the district safer and that tying in more Democratic leaning suburban areas would just end up creating tension between the non suburban farm-Democrats, so to speak, and the new portions of the district, (you're likely thinking parts of Dakota and Hennepin). So, I doubt Democrats will jump at that.  

[ Parent ]
Walz finished under 50%
after outspending Demmer 2:1. Sorry, but he is not safe. A well funded, good candidate could beat him in a neutral year.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
He is safe
You're also slightly off, he won 50-44 and you seem to be overlooking the fact that outside Republican groups shored Demmer up by spending several hundred thousand dollars attacking Walz in a relatively cheap media environment, and that this was the best Republican year in a generation. You seem to be under the assumption that Demmer wasn't a decently funded, good candidate; he was. Trust me, if Republicans couldn't beat him in 2010, they won't be able to beat him in a neutral environment unless he makes a major mistake.  

[ Parent ]
A well funded good candidate
An incumbent state legislator, in an R+1 district that had been previously represented by another Republican couldn't beat him in a monstrously Republican wave year. You think he is in danger in neutral year? Lol.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
Except
the 8th doesn't need to add anyone. They are almost exactly 1/8 of the state already according to the census. So it will not be expanding further into the suburbs. And your math is flawed anyways, to shift the district to be a D+0 district, you would need to change the net vote by 15000. Where in the world are you going to get 15000 extra Republicans into that district? You'd need to slice and dice the district into weird pieces to get it even close to that. The 8th will be nice for your team for one cycle, just as LA-2 was last cycle, and ID-1 was nice for our side last cycle. Just a one-term wonder, mark my words. People up there don't want to be governed by some city boy suburbanite, which is exactly what Cravaack is.  

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
You're exaggerating a bit
MN-08 is currently D+4. Unless redistricting shifts it into St. Paul, it ain't goin' significantly higher.

Therefore, I think it is an exaggeration to compare it to LA-02 (D+28) and ID-01 (R+18).

While I agree the odds are significantly against Cravaaaaaack, he doesn't face as big a slog as Cao or Minnick did in '10. (aka, at this time, I'd call it Lean D).


[ Parent ]
MN-8 is D+3, not +4
we've had a Republican representing our D+6 for generations. It's possible he could become entrenched.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
Jim Oberstar
was not all that popular with the people of the 8th anymore. He was viewed as a Washington insider who rarely spent periods of time in the district. in fact, he had ONE in-district donor as of September 31st. Cravaack was outspent 4:1! If redistricting helps him a bit, he has a chance to hold his seat. If folks like Jim Matheson and Dan Boren can survive in heavily GOP Congressional Districts, I see little reason why Cravaack can't survive. Granted, it will take a little help in Redistricting. Perhaps he can cut a deal with Tim Walz to shift some Dem areas to Walz's district from Peterson's, Peterson shifts GOP areas to Cravaack (perhaps St. Cloud), Bachmann gives some extra exburbs to Cravack, and Cravaack shifts GOP areas to Peterson. Everyone would be safer.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
You can day dream.
But really, that's not going to happen. Republicans see the 7th as theirs once Peterson retires, for right or for wrong. Peterson doesn't represent St. Cloud, nor is St. Cloud a Republican Area. The 8th doesn't need to add population, so you have to cut part of the district out in order to add anyone. The problem with cutting part of teh districy out, os the border areas of the district are the Republican parts.

Your comparisons to Boren are off. Boren is a conservative Democrat in an area that is traditionally Dixiecrat territory. There is no history of Republicans here, nor is Cravaack anything close to a moderate.

But you did hit the nail on the head, Oberstar was the problem, and he put his foot in his mouth BIG TIME at the debate.  

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
Curious - how did Oberstar screw up at the debate?
n/t

[ Parent ]
He wasn't professional at all
The debate was in Duluth, and the teabaggers were out in full force against Oberstar, booed him when he got on state, and jeered him when he talked. That being said he directed blame and harsh words to the crowd! Not a wise move at all caught on camera insulting the audience, especially when the main criticism of you is that you're an out of touch Washington insider that spends 90% of your time in Maryland. The problem was Oberstar, Cravaack just happened to be the lucky SOB that benefited.  

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
The first thing that makes me think of is Palin's response to Tucson......
Pretty much the same thing:  thin skin and unable to brush off criticism with dignity and grace.

One part of "leadership" is having a thick skin, translated to gracious behavior in response to ungracious treatment.  When people see you have a thin skin, they don't want you leading them.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
We can agree on the debate
I watched it online, and he was pompous as could be. Cravaack gave straightforward answers, and Oberstar was booed for acting very cocky. He wouldn't even shake Cravaack's hand. Had he have campaigned harder, he could have won. I tried drawing two districts up north, one for Peterson that takes him all the way to the Iron range, and one for Cravaack that is south of the new 7th. I'm curious to see if that is proposed.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
Won't happen
The Great White North district is a pipedream of Republicans, and was proposed by then-state representative Erik Paulsen. The farmers in the west and the loggers/miners in the east are not font of each other, at all. Yes, they are rural districts, but they have absolutely nothing in common with one another, and don't generally like each other all that much. It would go against 150 years of precedent. That is unlikely for a candidate that won one district in one wave election by less than half of a percentage point.

In all fairness though, Oberstar was booed walking onto the stage. The way he responded was inappropriate, but the crown was clearly hostile no matter what Oberstar was going to do. The teabaggers certainly won that round.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
Not only that
Peterson probably wouldn't win a primary against an Iron Range politician in that scenario. The hostilities and resentment do really run that deep.  

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
Thanks for the analysis.
I always kind of wondered why MN-08 was blueish while MN-07 is redish this sort of puts it together. I always thought it was just Duluth being in the 8th.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

[ Parent ]
eating my hat already
Texas LG sounding very much like a candidate for TX-Sen. He'd be a prohibitive favorite in the GOP primary IMO, LG is the most powerful state official in Texas.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


CA-Redistricting
here's one very interesting scenario:

4. The map could well be drawn by a court in the end. If the panel cannot agree on a map or, for example, doesn't draw enough districts where a majority of residents are racial minorities, the process could go to the courts and wind up in the hands of a court-appointed map-drawer.

There is only ONE Democratic justice on the CA Supreme Court. The rest are Republicans.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


Does it go to a Federal court?
I've heard of lines drawn by both Federal and State courts. Don't know what determines who gets to decide.

[ Parent ]
State Court
Special masters would be appointed by the CA Supreme Court.

If the commission does not approve a final map by at least the requisite votes or if voters disapprove a certified final map in a referendum, the Secretary of State shall immediately petition the California Supreme Court for an order directing the appointment of special masters to adjust the boundary lines of that map in accordance with the redistricting criteria and requirements set forth in subdivisions (d), (e), and (f). Upon its approval of the masters' map, the court shall certify the resulting map to the Secretary of State, which map shall constitute the certified final map for the subject type of district.

http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/in...


[ Parent ]
I must say...
as a Republican, hearing that the maps could be drawn by the CA Supreme Court made my day. I'm very worried about CA and IL, my home state. The GOP has golden opportunities in NC and TX, however.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
As a Democrat from Chicago
I'm very elated about the things to come for my home state. This year will go a long way in desimating the Illinois Republican bench and possibly get rid of a few of their "rising stars".

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
I think an 11-5 map is likely.
The 5 I reasonably hope come out safely are 1) Roskam (future Majority Leader type material) 2) Schock 3) Kinzinger 4) Schilling (beating Manzullo in a primary) and 5) Shimkus (Only because he's likely to survive. I'd rather have Dold as 5, because he is my Congressman and truly a great guy. I know him well and I KNOW he will represent our district well with moderation. We in the 10th are the most educated district in the country. Picking our district apart would be a shame.)

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
Dold
Should be Dems biggest target. With Roskam looking towards leadership, he has the best profile to win statewide, is from the right part of the state, and is the best fundraiser. Kinzinger and Schock are probably too conservative. Kinzinger may be able to win statewide, but Schock is from the wrong part of the state.  

[ Parent ]
I'm not talking about statewide office
Kinzinger has the potential to be a GREAT congressman. Roskam will be Speaker or Majority/Minority Leader/Whip some day.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
Dold is probably still statewide material
There's a good chance Jesse White is not running again in 2014. I get the feeling Dold may be looking at a two-year gear-up to run for SoS if he's booted from the House (considering as the Gov nomination is probably Dan Rutherford's for the taking and JBT is likely to want to stay on as the new CFO-or whatever it's called.) That would be an excellent stepping stone to run for Governor in 2018 or 22.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)

[ Parent ]
Dan Rutherford...
He's a very nice guy, and one of my favorite politicians that I have met, but there are some rumors out about him... But I would likely support a Governor bid by him. Anyway, Dold strikes me as a Federal not State guy. His business is quite lucrative, and if he loses in 2012, he'll just return to Rose Pest Solutions and become quite wealthy. What makes you think he wants to be SOS? I'd love to see Governor Schilling or Kinzinger, if they get redistricted out.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
SoS
Is, the way I see it, the 2nd most powerful executive post in state government (if you want to dispute that - please do. I'm not an expert in IL government) and Dold could argue his business experience could help him run the office more efficiently.

Plus it's undeniably a big stepping stone to higher office runs in IL: Alan Dixon, George Ryan, Jim Edgar, Michael Howlett, Louis Emmerson, etc. Jesse White probably could have been a Gov or Sen if he wanted to.

Didn't know Dan Rutherford had some potential baggage. But he would seem to be the obvious first choice 2014 candidate, given that he's been elected statewide and his office is probably going to disappear.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)


[ Parent ]
It's not baggage, but...
he is single (without any past history of women around him), 50, and has a pretty strong LGBT voting record. Make the connection yourself. There were similar rumors about Mark Kirk, but Kirk was married and had been engaged in the 1990s as well. Some arch-conservative could make a huge issue of this to Christian conservative voters downstate. I REALLY like Rutherford, but this could hurt him.
Attorney General is definitely #2 in Illinois, and SOS is #3. What makes you think Dold wants the job? I think he'd be a great SOS.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
Rutherford is from Downstate
That's liable to help him a lot. I get the feeling that Downstaters will be really happy to have one of their own in Springfield, even if he's a bit unsettling to the Christian Right (who also seem to be declining as a factor in Republican primaries, at least for now).

I don't have any info that suggests Dold wants to run for SoS; I just think that's the most logical next step for him if he's gerrymandered out of Congress and wants to stay in politics. His home area is probably too liberal for him to run for state Legislature, and he'll probably be thrown in a Liberal County Commission District (Suffredin's) as well.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)


[ Parent ]
Unrelated, but
your post indicates you're from MD-7 and MA-8. If I'm not mistaken, those are the districts of Elijah Cummings and Michael Capuano. How do you stay a Republican?! It'd be like brainwashing.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
There's a good number of Republicans at Harvard
most are probably old money.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Well...
I'm from a solidly Republican part of MD-7 (we were in MD-6 before the 2002 Gerrymander).

And I don't go to Harvard. My school despises Harvard with a burning passion.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)


[ Parent ]
Speaking of MD Congressional Districts...
Is it possible that the Democrats leave Sarbanes or Ruppersberger spread too thin if they go after Andy Harris? The Baltimore suburbs have been trending more Republican over the last decade, unlike Prince George's and Montgomery County.
Also, my area is likely to be put into Jan "the worst Congresswoman ever" Schakowsky's district, or some other Democratic gerrymander. Oh well... I'll be in college. However, she does NOT represent my community's values or traditions.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
SSP community values and traditions
Include cutting out invective with regard to Democrats.

[ Parent ]
No kidding


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
If Dems go for 8-0
They'll spread Ruppersberger way too thin, I think the ultimate map will be a 6-1-1 map with the 6th coming east to take in Hartford County, but the 1st losing some of it's Baltimore city areas in favor of more bay centric areas in Ann Arundel county and maybe some portions of the 5th if Steny want to play nice with the Easter Shore Dems.

This would put Harris & Roscoe in the same district and the new 1st would be a swing district but likely lean Dem in most political environments.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
MD Districts
I'm gonna ignore the second part there, because I don't know where exactly in Illinois you're talking about, and, well, it sounds like mostly invective.

The first part re: MD...there is not a ton of risk in spreading the 2nd or 3rd too thin unless whoever is drawing lines is clueless. I would like to look at the 2010 results for the Baltimore suburbs for MD-Gov etc. to see where the trends are going. You're correct to note that the surplus Dem votes are in the DC area. I think it could be a danger if Democrats go for an 8-0 map. There are several ways to deal with this...

1. If you're going to do a 7-1 map, give most the Baltimore/Harford portion of the current 1st to the 6th.
That's the really bad part of the district for Dems. Sarbanes or Ruppersburger don't need to eat more than a precinct or two of it if they don't want to.

2. Send the 7th somewhere besides Howard County. Western Howard is fairly GOP-friendly, but you go by a lot of Democrats in Columbia along the way. Sending it down toward Annapolis takes care of the other Republican zone that's now in the 1st. You could also send it towards Carroll or Harford, except that, practically speaking, the 2nd and 3rd each need a piece of the York Road corridor since both incumbents live there.

3. The best thing to do would be to draw one of the Baltimore-based districts so that it includes part of Montgomery and/or Prince George's, but I don't know if the people involved in the discussion are willing to do that. Practically speaking, anyone running for such a seat would need to advertise in the DC market as well as Baltimore one, which might give legislators pause. (Yeah, that could be an issue in the future 1st too, but you're not going to flip that district without a chunk of voters from either Baltimore or PG and someone else inevitably becomes endangered if you try the former.)

MD-03 is in theory competitive, but I can't think of a single Republican officeholder at any level who represents much of it. (It'd probably be an Anne Arundel council member, but someone who has the stances needed to win a GOP primary in such a race is likely ill-equipped to win a lot of crossover votes in such places as Towson or North Baltimore or Columbia.) It has the City of Annapolis, which ought to be part of a MD-01 made for a Democrat..but it wouldn't be hard to replace those votes with some good precincts in Howard County.

MD-02, well, even with the East Side of Baltimore County not liking Barack Obama much compared to other Democrats, he still got 59% of the vote. The GOP is institutionally pretty weak in that district too - except in Harford County, and even the part of Harford in MD-02 isn't all that Republican. Almost 30% of the district is black, so a GOP candidate would need a pretty high share of the white vote (and Dems there are a little more conservative than in MD-03 as a whole, which is mostly fairly liberal) to come particularly close to winning.  

Most of the good plans I've seen on here don't involve poaching either one of those districts to get Democrats, because that's just not where the votes are.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03


[ Parent ]
Illinois will have 17 districts in 2012, not 16


[ Parent ]
18


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Texas is limited
The GOP has complete control in Texas but they have a lot of work to do.  They have a state which is becoming less white, there was tremendous population growth in Austin.  Dallas has been shifting to the left.  The Valley is growing very fast.

The GOP is at their limit with picking up seats.  Maybe they can screw over Doggett, but they also have to find a way to protect their two new incumbents, create 4 new districts while following the voting rights act.


[ Parent ]
But few of those Rs on the court are far-right
I actually think that could be a positive step to break down the complete incumbent-protection in the present map. Sure, it could result in things like Rep. Maldonado, but it could also dislodge Rep. Mack and others, while making some of our entrenched Dems work a little to keep their seats.

I don't know though.  

24, SSP Gay Caucus Policy Committee Chair, Western Democrat; CO-05 (home), CA-14 (law school)


[ Parent ]
Personally, I'd prefer
for every District in the country to be drawn by citizens commissions. No more gerrymanders... no more protecting incumbents.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
TX-SEN
Dewhurst says that he's exploring a bid for senate, if he runs it's likely not a race, not in primary and not in the general.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

But is Dewhurst on good terms with the Tea Party?
If not, I think Michael Williams still wins.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Good question
Especially since the tea party just lost a high profile contest with Joe Straus reelection to House Speaker. They may be hungry for a win.  

[ Parent ]
I met Dewhurst one
I can tell you this, the guy means what he says. He's conservative, but he has the charisma thing down and is very personable and seems open to ideas. I had spoken with Craddick (former state Speaker) an hour before and was left angry, confirming the guy was a scum bucket. Dewhurst, while I disagree with all his policy positions, seems like he really cares about his job and likes people and such.

His TEA Party meta is not going to be very strong. His place to place, person to person skills is VERY high though.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
Would be interesting to see a primary matchup between Williams and Dewhurst...
Here's a thought, though: if Lt. Gov. Dewhurst looks likely to win that nomination (and I do think he'd be the favorite), does someone like Debra Medina jump in as an independent or third-party candidate?

I'm interested to see what PPP comes back with for general election head-to-heads. I'm guessing White comes closest of the major Dems; remember that while he's been suggesting he wants to stand down on running for statewide office, he originally was going to run for Sen. Hutchison's seat in that special election last year (the one that didn't end up materializing). I wonder if Hutchison's retirement, the suggestion of a brutal GOP intraparty primary, and good hypothetical polling numbers are enough to tempt White's interest.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
Libertarians in Texas
They always pull 3-5%. No need for anyone else to jump in with one other party sucking up that much oxygen.

White was running for Senate cause it looked like the only game in town, and no dem would want to run against Hutchison in a general (as was the conclusion that she would win the Gov primary 2 years out). I didn't think Hutch was going to/really could lose until September 2009.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
I know...
But it still indicates he's not opposed to serving in the Senate, even though some have suggested he's more focused on being an executive.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
This already reminds me of...
the 2010 Florida Senate Republican Primary. Charismatic, moderate(ish), people person, popular Lt. Gov David Dewhurst decides to run for Senate, and in comes arch-conservative Michael Williams, the outsider from the right. While I'm not sure the results would be the same, it would be a very interesting primary for a Republican such as myself to watch.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
Again, Medina's political career was done the minute she made the 9/11 truther comments on Glenn Beck
Of course, that isn't to say another third-party candidate couldn't draw 3-5%.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
MI-Sen/Lummis
We do need a pro-turtle fencer in the Senate.  And I didn't check out the article yet, but I bet Rep. Lummis is one of the most messed up names.  People think it's Loomis but it rhymes with hummus.  

You shall build a turtle fence!
For all who don't get the reference...
Parody: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...
The Honorable Pete Hoekstra's original speech.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...
The former US Rep from Michigan's 2nd Congressional district probably didn't think his speech would be oh so thoroughly enjoyed around the series of tubes.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
I love that song
James or David posted that video some time ago..it's a great song.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Check out the other ones!
http://www.youtube.com/user/sc...
My favorites are (in order) 10, 6, 5, 3, & 9.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
New Castle County President
The spot that was created with Coons entrance into the Senate . I'll keep you updated with the results. To give you the idea of the turnout, when I voted at 1PM, I was the only one in the polling place. Furthermore, the polling lady flipped through pages and pages of empty registration sheets to get to my name to sign me in. In case it matters, I voted for Kovach.  

Final Vote Total:
1 vote Kovach
0 other votes cast.
Kovach wins with 100% of precincts reporting. :)

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
Looks like Kovach won
Which is surprising from what you said before. I know he has been talked up as the future of the DE GOP. Now that he has won countywide in New Castle County, can he win a race for Gov or Sen whenever one comes open, or DE-AL if Carney runs for higher office?  

[ Parent ]
I was surprised he won
but it only proves that he can win in low-turnout special elections.

[ Parent ]
That is a good, legitimate question
I think it proves that Kovach can win a low-turnout election.  This doesn't necessarily prove he can win a non-special election, but at the same time he shouldn't be discounted as just being lucky.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Turnout
What this election does show is that Delaware Democrat machine isn't as good at turning people out anymore. Democrats had a huge party advantage in Delaware, but they couldn't turn anybody out. It wasn't just that Kovach won; Kovach won with 58 percent of the vote. And with this victory, Kovach will get name recognition, which is important.  

[ Parent ]
In a regular election, not likely.
He might be a good candidate for Auditor if the incumbent retires next time or if Chip Flowers is a flop, but that's really the only kind of higher positions I could see him winning in the future.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
He has a future...
If he stays New Castle County president or becomes executive, he can develop some name recognition. With some name recognition, people's familiarity with his good government capability, and his relatively good campaign skills, he could be a future contender. He definitely has a shot at governor in 2016 (will be open seat) or senator in 2014 or a house election if Carney leaves to do something else (senate, governor). The only problem is that Democrats have every statewide office and Delawareans really give incumbents an advantage.

But the big question remains...what are we going to do with O'Donnell? She is going to run again.  


[ Parent ]
I don't think she will
I think she is more interested in becoming a media personality/tea party leader. Hell, I think we could see her emerge with a leading role in Palin or Jaime Radtke's campaigns.  

[ Parent ]
New Castle County Delaware
I meant New Castle County Delaware. New Castle is the largest county of Delaware (2/3 of the state population). So if Kovach wins, the Delaware GOP may be able to replenish its bench a little.  

It also means Republicans winning the House didnt reenergize the Dem base
I would think that seeing Boehner in the Speaker's chair would reenergize the Democratic base, which has been 100% asleep since Obama's election in 2008.

[ Parent ]
Kovach Wins
Kovach, the Republican, wins with 58% of the vote. Looks like Republicans can win in Delaware, as long as they are not O'Donnell like crazies.

[ Parent ]
Gabby Giffords
I mentioned this in yesterday's digest, but here's an amazing interview with Kirsten Gillibrand and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz regarding Gabby Giffords.

It's the second interview down after Gibbs'.

I literally was tearing up reading it.  This woman is a tank...she's incredible.

http://thepage.time.com/2011/0...

Male, 23, NJ-12


Are
you watching them on Cris Matthews? Good stuff.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Oh no...
I didn't even realize they would be one.  Are they just basically recounting the story of Rep. Giffords opening her eyes?  Cause even just reading it I was so moved.

Male, 23, NJ-12

[ Parent ]
Yeah.
It is on again later tonight if you want to watch it.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
She's starting physical therapy
from the wsj

Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, recovering from a gunshot wound to the head, is opening both eyes, moving her arms and legs, and undergoing intense physical therapy, her doctors said Thursday.


[ Parent ]
Thanks!
Thanks for letting me (and everyone) know!!

Male, 23, NJ-12

[ Parent ]
NJ-Gov (2013): Christie, Booker tied 42-42 in hypothetical
Oh Please Please Please
I would love for Cory Booker to run...I'm not sure if he will though.  He and Christie seem to be pretty good friends and work together quite often.

Booker does seem to be universally loved here though.  I've never really heard anything negative about him from anyone.

Male, 23, NJ-12


[ Parent ]
A lot of politicians are good friends
but they don't miss opportunities solely because of friendship. If a politician had an opportunity to take one's seat, they'd do it.

[ Parent ]
...
He takes some heat from the Newark lifers who feel he's trying to use their city to advance his political career.  It was a much bigger deal when he ran for mayor the first time and lost to Sharpe James.  But there is still an anti-Booker faction.  If anything, Christie's closeness with Adubato, DiVincenzo, and the North Ward players COMBINED with his closeness with Booker have kind of tempered their own feud.  Here you had two warring Democratic factions in Newark, and the Republican Governor is the one that brought them together!  It's a remarkable story.  

As with Newark politicians in the past, crime in the city will go a long way to determine if he can run for higher office.  He's got great numbers now because not too many people know that much about him.  His other option would be to distance himself from the city a bit, by becoming a State Senator after a couple of terms as Mayor.  Though Mayor of Newark is a tough thing to walk away from.  I know it used to pay a higher salary than the Governor, with a TON of perks.  It also used to be that being a Newark Councilman would make you more than being a Cabinet member or Justice on the NJSC.  I haven't checked those numbers for the better part of a decade, so I can't confirm them at present.


[ Parent ]
I have a hard time
referring to Alcee Hastings as a Congressman. Any ex-Federal Judge thrown out of his judgeship by Congress after being convicted on charges of racketeering and perjury for accepting a $150,000 bribe for a handing down a lenient sentencing. I hope he retires after this cycle and the residents of FL-23 get a clean Congressman. The US Senate made a huge mistake by allowing him to run for Federal Office after his conviction.
There is also a probe in the House on his reckless travel expenses on the taxpayer's dime.
From Sunshine State News:
"Through 2005, Hastings billed the government $152,378 for overseas travel, ranking him second in the House during the previous decade, according to a report compiled by Political Money Line. That dollar amount, which does not include costs for staff or use of military aircraft, covered 57 trips to 116 countries.

On one three-day mission to Belgium in 2004 with legislative assistant Vanessa Griddine, Hastings spent $14,193 at taxpayer expense, according to Political Money Line."

Even as a Republican, I'd support a primary challenge from his left(!) to get that man out of office.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10


Eh, That's Democray (or the U.S. Version )
A majority of his district disagrees with you - and has disagreed in 10 straight elections.

[ Parent ]
Armand, I guarantee if informed of all of his shenanigans...
his district would elect another Democrat in the primary. I don't care how liberal one is, Alcee Hastings is indefensible in terms of his corruption. The reasons he wins his seat each election cycle are 1) gerrymandering, and 2) the fact that his district is extremely poor and any potential outsider candidate would have no shot because of a likely lack of money.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
I
don't like him and I would not vote for him if I lived in his district. But what can you do? He's won primaries, the people want him and I think it is just misinformed to say they did not what he did. I also can't believe Rick Scott got elected Governor, and I would happily support a more conservative Republican over him if that is what it takes to get him out of office but we can't always get what we want. Sometimes voters don't care about ethics.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I supported
Bill McCollum in the Governor's primary.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
Good
for you. I'm just saying sometimes voters don't care about ethics. Scott faced two very respectable opponents and beat both. Even with a well funded and respectable opponent would not necessarily be able to successfully primary Hastings.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
You Don't Think His Record Came Up When He Was Elected?
Of course it did. And there's been ample opportunity for it to come up in election after election since. A lot of voters don't care about corruption. A lot of voters (especially in some districts) don't trust prosecutors. And the stuff you mention that covers his time in Congress simply means he traveled a lot. That's not necessarily corruption - and could actually be a good thing.

More broadly, the notion that candidates can't raise money if they are running in poor districts is weird. If you want an informed electorate, you should probably be watching elections in some other country, and gerrymandering? All that does is switch would-be contests from D-R to D-D, and there is certainly opportunity to take out particularly loathsome public figures in primary elections.

If you don't like him, fine. But most of those who vote in his district do.


[ Parent ]
Minority Majority districts
tend to reelect their Congresspeople in their primaries even if they are as corrupt as can be. Think Charlie Rangel, Eddie Bernice Johnson (scholarship fraud), Maxine Waters, and Sanford Bishop (scholarship fraud). It's a shame they don't put in ethical, clean leaders. These districts are often poor and need real, clean leaders. The only precedents I can think of in a Minority Majority district of an incumbent losing are Al Wynn losing to Donna Edwards in MD-4 and Hansen Clarke beating Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick in MI-13. Even as a Republican, I really really like Hansen Clarke. He will do Detroit a lot of good.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
Safe seats
It's difficult to dislodge corrupt incumbents in safe seats, a category that includes most minority majority seats. It's not specific to minority voters. The same stuff happens in GOP primaries.

25, PA-10

[ Parent ]
This is a problem on both sides,
I agree. The problem is these Minority Majority districts are often times extremely impoverished, far more so than most heavily GOP districts.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
And because of their poverty,
they need honest, clean Representatives like Hansen Clarke, not Charlie Rangel.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
I totally agree with you
that Hastings is a corrupt bastard. However, his corruption is a matter of record, and my guess is that his constituents either don't care, choose to ignore it, or don't believe it. They have the right to vote for a sleazebag if that's who they want defending them.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
No joke but lets not kid ourselves
When you get district made for you you can do WHATEVER you want. untill the gerrymandering is delt with you'll see this from reps. who have solid D/R districts.

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

[ Parent ]
To be fair
Hastings has committee assignments that entail a lot of travel.

But, yeah, he's a scumbag.


[ Parent ]
I would so love to see him retire as well.
nt

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Democrat losing by 12 points!! in New Castle county
This is a county that went 70%-29% for Obama and 61%-39% for Kerry.  I guess the killer red wave will be there downballot as long as Obama is President.  

Snark, right?


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Serious
In every election besides the US House specials taken since November 2008, Democrats have WOEFULLY underperformed.  I thought John Boehner as Speaker would wake people up, but I guess not.  I guess it will take Sarah Palin or Gingrich in the White House to get the Democratic base active again.  

[ Parent ]
No, I seriously think you are kidding.
It's a very, very low-turnout election and a COUNTY election at that.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
It shows that the Dem base no longer votes
Now that Obama is in the White House. The Democrats are slowly turning into what Republicans were from the 1950's to the early 1990's, a party that can win the White House but nothing else.  

[ Parent ]
Ok, game's up, be serious again.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
No response, eh?
Figures.  Besides, the majority of the County Council is Dem.  In a regular election, things will be up aces for Dems there.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
This gives Republicans a bench
And another local officeholder and shows that while voters may like Obama, they want Congress and all local offices to be Republican.  

[ Parent ]
Rep. John Carney would disagree with you.
As I said, this is a county-level special election and no Republican has a realistic chance at the governorship or the Senatorship in 2012.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
This is essentially governor of two thirds of the state
And to write this off as a county level special election is just wrong.  This election was for who governs two thirds of the state.  Special elections are almost always leading indicators.  

[ Parent ]
In an uber-low turnout special.
Seriously, it was.  In a regular election, the Dem probably would have won.  And the County Executive position is like a mayoral position where he sits as head of a council.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
And Democrats would have won this race in 2005-2008
A Republican winning here gives Republicans a solid candidate for an open House, Senate, or Governorship seat.  

[ Parent ]
you know
just because a Republican exists doesn't mean he'll win forever. You actually have to do things to become popular.

How did Steve Cooley constantly win in LA County, then, if election results for local elections are so predictive?


[ Parent ]
then why did
Democrats win almost every House special election before losing 63 seats on Election Day?

[ Parent ]
Lt. Gov of 2/3 of the state is more like it
The County Commission President is #2 in the county, after the County Executive.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)

[ Parent ]
If special elections were leading indicators
Then the Ds would still control the House, as they had won something like 9 of the 10 previous special elections to that body (exception, HI-01).

In fact, special elections are generally irrelevant indicators in other Democracies as well, e.g. Canada, UK, etc.


[ Parent ]
Yeah
I think the Dems won some Kentucky legislative seats in special elections, as well as one state senate seat apiece in VA and NJ.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
I also believe..
that Christine O'Donnell wasn't elected Senator.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
That's not the point
The point is that a loss like this never would have happened before November 2008.  Tim Kaine should be ripped out of the DNC and replaced with someone who cares about winning local elections like Howard Dean.  

[ Parent ]
Kovach already proved LookingGood's point once before......
Kovach won his state Rep. seat in a special election in 2008, then lost in 2010.  He lost as an incumbent Republican in an anti-Democratic wave year, in a chamber where Dems already had a solid advantage and there was no heated battle for chamber control driving an effort in his district!

Kovach hasn't proven anything until he can win a general election.  So far, he's proven he can't even under the most favorable circumstances.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
DCCyclone...
You couldn't have stated it any better.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
To discount special elections is a BIG mistake
"Meaningless" special elections in Northern Virginia for Board of Supervisors in 2009 and numerous special state legislative elections in 2009 and 2010 showed that Democrats were losing or barely winning in areas they usually won easily and lost big in areas where they usually ran competitively.  

What this special election showed was that independents are still heavily Republican and the Democratic base isnt showing up the way it used to pre-2008.  


[ Parent ]
Christine O'Donnell
Was at the top of the ticket, so I wouldn't say it was the most favorable conditions.  

[ Parent ]
Bingo
And throw in the fact that Coons beat O'Donnell by around two-to-one in Kovach's old district.  

[ Parent ]
Even after she admitted that she wasn't a witch?
Seriously, you brought up a great point.  O'Donnell didn't help that she was on the top of the ticket.  This leads me to another question:  would the dude have been elected if Castle was on top of the ticket?

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Kovach probably would have won if Castle led the ticket
He only lost by five points when O'Donnell lost the district by 2-to-1.  

[ Parent ]
2010 was a Republican year, but not in Delaware
What with Wicked on on top of the ticket, the GOP got hammered.

Still, this was a very low turnout election. Bad weather. Frigid temps, snow on the ground. The Dem candidate wasn't stellar.

Congrats to Kovach though on the margin of victory.


[ Parent ]
I voted in this election for Kovach.
Kovach lost in 2010, because every Delaware Democrat came out the woodwork and voted for Coons and every moderate Republican and Independent was scared of O'Donnell. You have no idea the embarrassment that Christine wrought for the Great State of DELAWARE. People were laughing at us!

In short, O'Donnell, I think, had the worst downticket effects of any statewide candidate in recent ages.  


[ Parent ]
She
still managed to get 40% of the vote though. So its not like Republicans hanged their heads in shamed and didn't show up on election day.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Yeah, and I'm superficially skeptical that she would've had negative coattails......
She's an isolated crank, I would imagine average voters easily would distinguish between her and other Republicans on the ballot.  The only way she would've had negative coattails otherwise would've been if, with Senate having been the marquee race everyone cared about most, Dem turnout spiked and/or GOP turnout suffered.  But I haven't heard anyone argue or cite any data to support that turnout was affected like that.  It takes a lot to do that, I witnessed it in Virginia in 2009 when McDonnell's great campaign and Deeds' bad campaign really skewed turnout badly against us.  I'm skeptical that O'Donnell could've had nearly as large an affect.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
What kind of contributions have you made to this site besides to say that Democrats are doomed?
nt

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
UpstateDem v.1,000,000?


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Yup, this is the kind of contribution that...
...makes me suspicious.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
We're doomed.
:(

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Yep
I'm going to go under my table in the fetal position for the rest of the night. See you next week.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Keep laughing these losses off
Democrats are very close to becomming a White House only party.  

[ Parent ]
If you say so!
I'm laughing all the way to the resurrection of the Debs-era Socialist Party of America, formed from leftist remnants of the collapsed Democratic Party.

Thanks for posting. I never would have guessed that the loss of a county executive office in one of the smallest states in the Union was the herald announcing the doom of the next generation of Democratic candidates.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09


[ Parent ]
As New Castle County goes..
The country goes?  I'm with you...I don't believe a low-turnout, special election in New Castle County is a microcosm of the general feel for our nation.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
That's the kind of attitude liberals had in 2009 and 2010
And Democrats need to win several districts to control the House. You dont elect the House based on a countrywide vote.  

[ Parent ]
That's fine
We can just disagree.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Get off the damn soapbox allready.
We get your position the world is over because a blue county elected a republican county executive and democrats can't win any elections. No one agrees moving on.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

[ Parent ]
I do believe that should be SSP's new motto
"As New Castle County goes, the nation goes."

I like the sound of it!

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets


[ Parent ]
You sound a lot like liberals in 2009 and early 2010
When these early warning signs were popping up. Oh well, as long as Obama is reelected, everything will be fine.  

[ Parent ]
And you sound like a concern troll.


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
or
a GREAT comedian.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
I got a
couple of laughs when I described a (conspiracy?) theory that some Republicans were comments on certain sites simply to fuck with the minds of Democrats. I read stuff like what PaulM is saying and then think I might not be that far off.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
It's no "theory," it's real, yes they do that and it's documented as such......
It happens all the time.  Sockpuppetry is routine and rampant.  And this new commenter to date fits the pattern in every comment I've seen so far, although I'll refrain from making any definitive accusation lest I be admonished by the moderators.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
if anything...
The flimsy argument that "Coons would have beat Castle anyway." is completely obliterated.  Not that anyone here really thought that, but a lot of ultra-right wingers were using that as a defense after O'Donnell's loss...that no Republican was going to win Delaware anyway.

[ Parent ]
I never believed that.
Of course Castle would have won.  He had built up decades of goodwill during his era of public service and a lot of Dems supported him as well.  But that was all thrown out when the primary electorate cut off their nose to spite their face.  Now Castle is retired and probably in Florida right now.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Castle in a walk.
Castle would've won easily. Even in my heavily Democratic neighborhood, there were many more Castle signs than Coons. Only after the primary were Coons signs replacing the Castle signs that were there.  

[ Parent ]
I think it prolly would have been
56-44 though, or somewhere abouts. Castle was running a rather lazy campaign, and was old, having health problems, and Delaware is very Democratic these days, and Coons was an energetic, well-funded candidate. That could be considered a walk I guess.

[ Parent ]
Coons is not very energetic.
I remembered him before the O'Donnell surge in early September. He's a nice person, but he is one of the most awkward people you'll ever see/meet. I saw him at a minor league baseball game just standing outside the ticket office  with his two children, waiting for somebody to talk to him.  In the 20 minutes I waited in line, nobody did talk to him. The only way I knew he was a Senate candidate was that his two children were wearing "coons for senate" shirts. I wanted to shake his hand and talk to him, but I just felt really awkward doing it, so I didn't.

He also wasn't well-funded. Castle had him outgunned. Coons only raised money after O'Donnell.  


[ Parent ]
I see what you mean.
I watched a debate I between him and O'Donnell.  He did seem pretty awkward on the tough policy questions, but next to O'Donnell, the choice was beyond obvious.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Coons already had about 1.5 mil
in the bank when O'Donnell won the nomination.  

[ Parent ]
Turnout
Red Racing Horses says that turnout was a whopping and overwhelming 7%!!! Means zilch for climate, means everything in terms of good possibility to have a bench if successful. This is my analysis of the events.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

[ Parent ]
Thank you.
PaulM is clearly a concern troll or UpstateDem returned.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Quite obviously
It is the same poster that crops up every now and again under a different name every time but saying the exact same thing.


[ Parent ]
I know not the reasons for this result

Surely the people have not the candidate what want in the democratic side. Or maybe relax after good results in 2010.

Few days ago I look to the results of 2010 elections for the state house of Delaware, and I see a decent improvement for the democrats. Nothing about a killer red wave.

At same time the alone republican statewide officer gets very narrowly re-elected and is a 20 years incumbent (appointed by Castle).


[ Parent ]
T-Paw is a lolcow.
He says to an evangelical leader that if he was prez, he would reinstate DADT.
http://www.prospect.org/csnc/b...

LOLWUT?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Wow,
what a dumbass.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
FL-Sen: Mike H Running
If this website is any indication: http://mike2012.com/
Luckily for us, he seems to be going by Mike or Mike H, so we don't have to spell Haridopolos (which I have already mastered, even though I still can't spell Sexi Lexi's last name)

You take this as concern trolling or helpful advice but as somebody
who lives from his SD your gonna need a lot of luck if hes your nominee. Hes just one step up from Sarah Palin on the fail meter.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

[ Parent ]
In what way?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Based on the media appearances i've seen him on
in local news and his ridiculous bible loving ads.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

[ Parent ]
I don't want him to be the nominee
I like Hasner.  

[ Parent ]
Whoever wins RNC Chair Race...
will have a lot of fundraising issues.

The RNC has negotiated with their bank to put off repaying their debt another year.  No doubt this will drive up their debt's interest in exchange.  As of the end of 2010, their debt was $21.8 million.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


LA-Gov 2027: Edwin Edwards Released From Prison
And he will be eligible to run for elective office again in 2026! Get ready for Gov. Fast Eddie v5.0

I can't wait.


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
heh
I remember reading about the bumper stickers from his run against David Duke:

"Vote for the Crook, It's Important"
"Vote the Lizard, not the Wizard"

41, Ind, CA-05


[ Parent ]
They're both wizards under the sheets
How bad was the field in 1991, that Edwards and Duke were the top two vote getters?

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Wasn't bad at all
Duke just got in because Roemer took the establishment Republican vote. Anyway, you seem to be missing the point; Edwards would probably beat Bobby Jindal next year if he were able to run and did. Hell, a St. Martin Parish festival announced he was going to be their Grand Marshal before he was even officially released from prison. You just can't beat Edwin Edwards. Well...the northern WASPs hate him, as humorless, prude and often racist as they are in north Louisiana, and exceptionally conservative and generally hostile to Cajun candidates, but Edwards is loved by all older voters in south LA.

[ Parent ]
The funniest part is
The incumbent governor who lost to both of them is considering a run for president

[ Parent ]
Excuse me, when did Jindal lose to Edwards or Duke???......
Jindal lost 2003 LA-Gov to Blanco, then won the U.S. House seat in 2004 and won reelection in 2006, then won LA-Gov in 2007.

I thought 2003 was his first try at elective office.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I think user GOPVOTER is referring to
Buddy Roemer.... who lost to both Edwards and Duke.

Roemer would become one of the thousands (slight exaggeration) of "some dudes" running for the GOP Presidential nomination in '12.  


[ Parent ]
Oh that's right, I already forgot that Roemer is thinking about it......
That's pretty bad for Roemer, when even someone like me already forgot he is thinking about running.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Lizard People!


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Still waiting
for Zombie Huey Long to run.

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets

[ Parent ]
The Longs
There are actually still a few in elective office. State Sen. Gerry Long, the only Republican. He is Huey and Earl's 3rd cousin.  

[ Parent ]
Meh
Doctrinaire conservative, from what I can see. Even worse, a Republican...

(you know we all love you, GOPVOTER, but I feel like a Long as a Republican is like if Malia Obama were campaigning for office on a Tea Party platform including the repeal of healthcare reform.)

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets


[ Parent ]
WA-Gov: Gregoire has 61% Disapproval rating
http://seattletimes.nwsource.c...
38 approve, 61 disapprove  

That's
like Blanche Lincoln territory right there. Time for Gregoire to retire.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
It won't matter much
She's likely not running again anyway.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Will her unpopularity
Have the same affect that Rendell, Doyle, and Granholm's unpopularity had on the Dem nominees in 2010?  

[ Parent ]
Maybe
But if it's someone unrelated to her administration (e.g. Inslee), then it'll be hard to tie them together.  Also, WA is more Dem than PA, WI, and MI.  The Dem machine is also more competent there.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
No
It would have done so before - she pretty much always been unpopular, but won re-election, Obama won a landslide, Murray was elected by a comfortable margin, etc.. The article you link to also shows the previous Gov. Locke had a worse approval rating in 03/04.

WA-07, 34 years old

[ Parent ]
BTW, can someone explain why she is so unpopular?
She just strikes me as a generally unoffensive, if not particularly inspiring figure. Its not like she very liberal or anything.


WA-07, 34 years old

[ Parent ]
Did she ever recover from '04?
Seems like she started with a low baseline, given the perceptions from her original election as Gov.

What I don't know is if her approval ever broke 50% during better economic times.


[ Parent ]
I don't think for any long period of time
I'm mainly interested because I live in the state, but I really know very little about WA state politics. I was hoping someone who lives here and follows things more closely (at the state, not federal, level) could give some insight.

WA-07, 34 years old

[ Parent ]
WA
I've never understood her either.  As far as my research as taken me, she has done nothing wrong.  

I guess its just a combination of no charisma, bad economy (Although I don't think WA is in terrible shape right now) and hard lined opposition?

29/D/Male/NY-01


[ Parent ]
Yet another approval showing an Obama rebound
Marist now has him at 48 approve, 43 disapprove (from 42 approve, 50 disapprove in early December)

BTW, the '12 horserace numbers are good too:

Obama 51, Romney 38,
Obama 30, Huck 38
Obama 56, Palin 30

Obama was actually trailing Romney by a few points in December in this poll.

http://www.miamiherald.com/201...

WA-07, 34 years old


Should say Obama 50, not 30
n/t

WA-07, 34 years old

[ Parent ]
Scared the crap out of me
haha

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
Almost seems too optimistic


[ Parent ]
internals
That article had no link to internals, but I'd guess that the party split was more favorable to Dems than most other recent polls.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Not especially
The breakdown is 35% D, 28% R, 36% I.

Thats roughly in line with most polls, particularly if you are dealing with RVs.

WA-07, 34 years old


[ Parent ]
doesn't sound too bad
Gallup says their daily trackers for 2010 averaged 32D-28R-37I. Obama's reported 51-38 lead over Romney should probably be something like 49-40 but it's still pretty hefty.  

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
KY-AG: Conway Lucks Out Again
Looks like he'll likely win another term.  Former KY SCOTUS Chief Judge Lambert was refused the deferment he needed to take a leave of absence from the Senior Judges Program in order to run for A-G.  He was refused the deferment by the current Chief Justice.

http://bluegrasspolitics.blogi...

The filing deadline is on the 25th.

A second term as A-G is what Conway needs to rebuild goodwill after the divisive general election for Senate, IMHO.  He's been very competent in this position.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


And I'm not saying
That Conway will win no problem, but the heavy hitters and big players all declined.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
A shame Grayson is going to Harvard
I supported Rand in the primary, but I really like Grayson too. His exit let the Democrats appoint a new Secretary of State, so that all across the board the Democrats have a pretty strong slate (with the added benefit of getting rid of contrarian Dan Mongiardo).

19, Male, libertarian Republican, TX-14 and MN-04

[ Parent ]
I just read up on Grayson's tenure as SoS.
It surprised me at how competent he was.  He modernized, streamlined, and reformed everything to do with his office.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Bigger picture
If Grayson is serious about promoting moderation in tone - as he's suggesting in the wake of the attempted Giffords assassination (without changing the policies that he advocates), then his move to the Kennedy school could have a much bigger impact than anything he could do as KY SoS.

[ Parent ]
VA-10: Someone said of Frank Wolf
that he rarely appears for interviews on major media outlets.  Maybe this is why:

http://www.bluevirginia.us/dia...

....

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Wow! n/t


"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
I seriously have no idea why
a question about earmarks made him go into a discussion about study groups.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Virginia's Phantom Republicans
Randy Forbes is the same way, in that he never does interviews, never does anything newsworthy, and refuses to debate his opponents.

[ Parent ]
Robert Hurt
No doubt after you can add Robert Hurt onto that list shortly. Given how his district will be protected in redistricting most likely look for him to be around for a while.  Though I would much rather have an empty suit who never opens his mouth like Hurt as opposed to Mr. Toxic aka Virgil Goode.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
Yeah, Bob "Birther" Goodlatte has taken up that mantle from Goode.


[ Parent ]
LUKE-tuh-my-uhr?
Congressman, in case you haven't noticed, your name is spelled with the 'T' BEFORE the 'K'. In inexplicably reversing the pronounciation order, you serve only to deepen the impression of some among us that the House Republican Caucus is beset by willful ignorance.

Rant over. Any German grammarians in the SSP community care to refute?

Male, 23, DC-At Large


LIT-KA-MY-UHR
absolutely right, in German I'd pronounce it something like Lit-Ka-My-Uhr

But I always have to laugh about the pronounciation of Boehner's name. As a German it sounds absolutely weird to me.
It has definetely nothing to do with how it would be pronounced in German (change the sound to something close to the "u" in burn, pronounce it a little longer and that's about how you'd pronounce it in German).
Oh and btw. studying Italian the pronouncation of Mr. Renacci's name made me laugh ;-)


[ Parent ]
heh
There used to be a congressman from Michigan named Guy Vander Jagt. I thought the last part was pronounced "yogt" but he actually pronounced it "jack". I think the Colts' old kicker had the same name and pronounced it the same way.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
LUKE-tuh-my-uhr?
Congressman, in case you haven't noticed, your name is spelled with the 'T' BEFORE the 'K'. In inexplicably reversing the pronounciation order, you serve only to deepen the impression of some among us that the House Republican Caucus is beset by willful ignorance.

Rant over. Any German grammarians in the SSP community care to refute?

Male, 23, DC-At Large


Interesting profile on Herman Cain, probable GOP cadidate for pres
http://www.theatlantic.com/mag...

Cain is so exuberantly confident of his message that he has upgraded its status: he bestows upon audiences not speeches or talking points but "The Hermanator Experience." He's even trademarked the phrase.


He strikes me as narcissistic......
Of course, all right-wing talking heads on radio and TV strike me as narcissistic.  Mainly because they mostly are.

But at least Cain also did something professionally worthy in life.  We had Godfather's Pizza franchises in Ames and Marshalltown when I was a kid, and it was my 3rd-favorite behind Great Plains Sauce & Dough Company (local joint in Ames) and Pizza Hut.  Of course Cain had nothing to do with the pizza itself, it was that good before he was hired.

Cain will collect a few teabagger votes--not even most of them, just a few of them--and that's it.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I don't know...
I could actually see him getting some traction.

If Mitch Daniels doesn't run I could see myself giving some thought to supporting Cain if only for a lack of alternatives... the Republican field at this point is awful enough to accommodate a complete "dark horse" like Cain.

20, GOP, NH-02


[ Parent ]
I think Cain might play well with some Iowa Tea Partiers
Especially if Palin passes. He could be memorable, yet totally flame-out like Mike Gravel. Or, he could be the next Alan Keyes and manage enough traction to get into later debates with the front-runner candidates. I think he's strictly a caucus-friendly contender, though. Won't play well in any of the major primaries, methinks. FWIW, I wrote an article on Cain this morning...

http://polibeast.blogspot.com/...

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
RedState
They have a huge collective hard-on for the man over there. He will be quite popular with that type of crowd, but very few others.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/01/demint-drops-na.php
Who asked you?! I guess you'll all love this! DeMint comes out against Dewhurst

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

In other news, you're proven wrong on Obama Tucson speech ratings......
It was 31 million:  http://www.talkingpointsmemo.c...

That's higher than some other recent televised speeches/addresses.  Certainly enough to create plenty of water cooler chatter.  And the media and pundits, even almost all the conservative ones, have been universal in compliments.

That said, I think tietack's hope of 60% job approval, even for a short time, is very far-fetched.  It's another Obama moment that people remember to help sustain a more modest bump, maintaining momentum after the lame duck successes.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I know who Michael Williams is...
But who is this Cruz guy? Is he Latino? I've never heard of him.  

[ Parent ]
Zero Hour
for Michael Steele.

http://www.politico.com/news/s...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


PA-Sen
for politicspa.com:

>>>>>>>

Did GOP Just Lose Senate Prospect Mark Schweiker?

It was announced this morning that former Governor Mark Schweiker is taking a position as Senior Advisor to the Government Affairs division of law firm Stradley Ronon. Schweiker will work with the firm in addition to his current position as President of Services for business consulting firm PWRT.

Needless to say, taking a high-profile position as a lobbyist does not seem like the move of someone planning a run for statewide public office. According to Stradley Ronon's website, Schweiker's division oversees activities including lobbying for legislation and seeking government contracts.

<<<<<<<


This is why I love National Review Online
By Jim Geraghty    

North Dakota Democrat Sen. Kent Conrad now has at least one potential challenger: Public Service Commissioner Brian Kalk. He's filed the papers for an exploratory committee; his official biography can be found here.

Potential slogan: "If Washington is cracking up, let's fix it with Kalk."


"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


You can find far better stuff right here


[ Parent ]
RNC Race
I am curious to see who will be running the show over there for this cycle. Steele is defiant in the face of calls for hise ouster. Any thought as to who will win?

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


Gingrich Has High Aspirations
I was thinking of making this into a diary, but I don't have much to add except to say that he has the right attitude: the Republicans should aim very, very, very high if they want to get done what they've been promising. I don't think there are 40 more seats for them in the House, even with redistricting killing the Democrats, nor do I think they'll get 13 seats in the Senate, because for that to happen, they'd have to win not only the seats in Nebraska, Virginia, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Jersey, and West Virginia, but also seats in Washington, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Mexico, and other seemingly safe states. That's a ludicrously tall order, and short of the mother of all meltdowns in every way by the Democrats, it's not going to happen. But because they are likely to try to expand the map, they could give us a run for our money, if not topple a few incumbents, in seemingly safe seats.

My question to my fellow Democrats is, Why can't we act the same way? We aren't so ideologically rigid that we refuse to run candidates that are good fits for states that are more hostile to Democrats. We'll run a John Sharp in Texas or a Harold Ford in Tennessee, while the Republicans will run a Carly Fiorina in California. And while we can't predict the future, we can make plans that can be altered as the electoral conditions emerge. The defeatist attitude that so many display is just incredible.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


Agreed
But you knew that already.

[ Parent ]
I think they've got a decent shot at picking up several more Senate seats
Not sure where Gingrich thinks those 40 House seats are going to come from, though. I'm not bothering to do much thinking on the House until redistricting is over with, but working from the 2010 map there's not much left for the Republicans to go after. Let's say they're very lucky and manage to take out the Shulers and Borens and Mathesons left in the Dem caucus, as well as wobbly narrow survivors of this cycle like Sanford Bishop and Ben Chandler. What then? How do you expand the Republican majority without defeating guys like John Yarmuth or Tim Walz?  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Well,
part of their luck this year was going after candidates that few expected to lose. And they got dangerously close to taking a few people, like Maurice Hinchey, down in the wave. The thing about targeting 40 seats is that a having a decent chance in 25 percent of those seats and only succeeding in half of those races still gives them a pick up of five seats. That's pretty damn good.

As for the Senate, if it's a mediocre year, their gains could be limited. If it's a bad year, sure, the sky might be the limit, but a lot of the allegedly vulnerable Democrats--Stabenow, for instance--don't seem to have competitors jumping at the chance to take them down. And the most vulnerable, like McCaskill, Tester, and Webb, are leading in some if not all of the polls. If nothing else, this past election should be a wake up call to all incumbents.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
squeakers
Pending redistricting, a rough approximation of a decent target might be a seat that the Dem won by 3 points or less. These included:

Braley (IA), 2.0, Iowa doesn't gerrymander so redistricting won't likely be a big issue
Peters (MI), 2.6, likely moot if he's thrown in with Levin
T Bishop (NY), 0.4
Altmire (PA), 1.6, they may be able to screw him in redistricting
Critz (PA), 1.6, his district is likely to disappear
Larsen (WA), 2.2, WA does not gerrymander
Giffords (AZ), 1.5, forget it if she runs again
McNerney (CA), 1.1, who knows with CA moving from incumbent protection to commission redistricting
S Bishop (GA), 2.8, VRA may protect him from a gerrymander
Donnelly (IN), 1.4, they should be able to screw him in redistricting
Chandler (KY), 0.2, split control here so the district likely won't change much
Owens (NY), 1.1
Connolly (VA), 0.4

In addition Boswell (IA) will probably be thrown in with Latham, and Costa (CA) might get drawn into something less favorable. They can probably screw one of the Carolina 3 (Kissell, McIntyre, Shuler) but they all won by at least 7. They can try to screw Matheson, but his district is already R+15 where the whole state is R+20 so they're bound to create at least one district that he can win. I don't think they have much to work with here.



41, Ind, CA-05


[ Parent ]
Not many seats there
Though I have to note at this point I've only been a real elections junkie since '06 so I'm getting used to elections where one party or the other is going on offense (with varying degrees of force) at up to a hundred seats, give or take.

Would that target list, assuming the Rs win about half of them, balance out with losses from redistricting in places like Illinois (and maybe) California or somewhere else, plus a few fluke swings like MN-8 shifting back to the blue column? I don't know.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09


[ Parent ]
Carnahan
I forgot Russ Carnahan (MO) who also won a squeaker. I think it's possible to keep Clay completely safe without throwing him under the bus, so I suspect that redistricting there is going to the courts. I think he'll end up with a less friendly district, as Clay will almost certainly eat some of his best precincts.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Don't we, though?
Sen. Tester.  Sen.  Webb.  Rep.  Boren.  Rep. Giffords.  The list would be longer before Nov '10, but I've thought we've done a great job of aiming high and winning seats that were "unwinnable".  Even after '06, when Republicans were saying the same thing that Democrats are saying now, "You're stretched too thin, you can't hold those gains in '08."  Maybe there's some defeatists around here, but C'mon, going into Obama's re-elect, you know the powers that be are gunning for a reclaim of the House, and are recruiting NOW to take back as many of those seats as possible.

[ Parent ]
Well, yes, but
we need to try for the less obvious seats. In the House, I'd tell Democrats to look at all seats, except for perhaps the At Large ones, where the Democrats received at least 30 percent of the vote in 2006, 2008, or 2010. (It's harder to do this if the district is dramatically reshaped as the lines are redrawn, but for ones that change that much, figure out some formula to guess the vote turn out based on a few different factors.) Then figure out how many voters turn out and why, how many might turn out if mobilization tactics were changed, and/or how many new voters might be brought to the polls--in other words, figure out the coalition. In at least a third of the House seats, there's almost no workable coalition for Democrats. But in a lot of them, there is. Right now, Steve Israel said they are looking at 61 districts (or some number around there). Using the strategy I described is not going to get us another 61 or so seats to compete in, but it could add another 15 or 20. We certainly won't win in all of them, but maybe we can win in some of them. And that's really a key to consistently winning.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Where are you getting the money
to seriously run for so many seats? Citizens United has given the Republicans a big advantage. Please explain how you propose to do all of this.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Not necessarily
those channels opened up by that decision can also be exploited by Dem friendly groups.  We need to in order to match them.  

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Steve Israel's from NY
I'm sure he has ways to get lots of money.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Just so we are clear,
I wasn't advocating doubling the number of seats we seriously contested. I could be wrong, but I expect the method that I described--creating a broad list but then knocking off potential districts after they failed to meet certain criteria--would yield a decent number, but certainly not that many. After all, a big part of the plan would be to bring new voters to the polls, and in some areas, that's going to have a very limited effect on the race because there just aren't that many new people to bring into the process.

As far as money goes, all of the traditional ways a candidate raises money would apply, but if it's a presidential year, it's certainly possible that some spending at the top of the ticket, where money isn't likely to be an issue, can help candidates in other races. It's not out of the question for the Obama campaign to spend some money in Florida, for instance, in some of the redder areas to try and flip a seat, even if it's in a more indirect fashion because of some legal concerns. It's harder to do in California, but at the same time, if the Obama campaign is defraying some of the cost in the swing states, it frees up some money to be used in the states that aren't being contested at the top.

Besides, for better or worse, the effect of Citizens United this past election has prompted big money liberal interests to try to match the efforts of the Republicans. There's no guarantee that they will be as successful, but I doubt the advantage is as overwhelming as it was last time.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
RNC
chairman elections. First balloting over here's results:

85 needed to win

Priebus - 45
Steele - 44
Cino - 32
Anuzis - 24
Wagner - 23 (Don't give up yet GOPVOTER)

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


I think Priebus has it
Steele's starting to bleed votes on the second ballot, but I didn't write down the specific numbers.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Second ballot numbers courtesy of C-SPAN
Priebus -52
Steele -37
Cino -30
Wagner -27
Anuzis -22

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]

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