I like both maps

WV-1 does pose an interesting question though.  What if Capito Moore, who lives in Charleston, runs in the first?  While that would set up an exciting R-R match up, if she wins the primary, our chances of picking up the seat may be diminished.  One the other hand, I imagine she'll be running for some statewide office in 2012 anyway.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

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by: Marcus @ Thu Jan 13, 2011 at 16:13:08 PM UTC

really good point re ...

Capito, but I guess I was ultimately thinking more long-term, as these lines will last 10 years ...

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by: silver spring @ Thu Jan 13, 2011 at 19:19:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks for posting these maps

they are very interesting and raise all sorts of interesting questions.

In AR its like an attempt at 2R-2D.  For a state that came within a 1000 or so votes of being 4D-0R in 2001 that's quite a retreat.  This particular map accomplishes two purposes as it firms up Mike Ross and gives the democrats a decent chance of electing a democrat in AR2.  If a conservative Democrat was nominated there it would be a lock but Joyce Elliott won the D primary in 2010.  She lost in 2010 and would a huge primary favorite in a seat like this.  As an AA democrat she would undoubtly run well behind party numbers in this seat.  

My crystal ball, however, says that the conservative coalition in AR (both house & senate is run this way) will pretty much leave current lines as they are.  Now AR4 may very look like this map has it.  The conservative democrats who run things in AR will not likely lock up AR1 as GOP seat nor will they create a seat for a liberal democrat to hold.  I look for AR2 to stay exactly as it is plus AR1 will slide into CD3.  That's my best guess.

This WV map is very nifty.  It really shake everything up in WV if this map was adopted. My crystal ball, however, sees thing staying the same in WV.  Mollohan has lots of legislative friends in WV and he would not want his old seat chopped up.  WV1 clearly becomes a Charleston influenced seat--not to Mollohan liking.  Rahall will not want to lose any of it seat.  That's my guess and I believe just the current CD2 giving up one county on its western end to CD1 & CD3 will perfectly balance the state.  I think that will happen.  

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by: rdelbov @ Thu Jan 13, 2011 at 16:53:27 PM UTC

I like the Arkansas map

But the West Virginia map doesn't seem to accomplish much.

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by: emilysdad @ Thu Jan 13, 2011 at 19:56:16 PM UTC

it's hard to do ..

much, when you have to adhere to the "no county splitting rule" in WV ... hopefully, a map like this would result in 2 Dems. in WV -- Rahall and improved chances for take-over in WV-1 (blue district) over the next decade -- just scrambling the map in WV may have some effect ?  

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by: silver spring @ Thu Jan 13, 2011 at 20:16:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oh, I know

You did a great job under difficult circumstances. We just weren't dealt very good cards there.

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by: emilysdad @ Thu Jan 13, 2011 at 20:48:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

To redistrict both states is more difficult than it seems

They are good bids. You need to include the rating of the districts (the current and the future) for the people see where would be really the districts because West Virginia and Arkansas are not the most Obama friendly states. I think we can have some district under R+5, and it is not bad.

To redistrict both states is more difficult than it seems, and redistrict West Virginia is more difficult still than redistrict Arkansas.

Arkansas give few but interesting options for improve since a democratic point. Your map show one, what try to keep the current AR-04 with few changes, and my maps give others.

http://www.swingstateproject.c...

One of my conclusions drawing maps for Arkansas was the next.

The most democratic options need to include Washington county in one of the two most democratic districts. And it is possible, but difficult.

Without this, it is really difficult to have a second district under R+5 level. Then, the alone chance is try to keep the second democratic district (AR-04) thanks to the appeal of M Ross, without touck his current district, like you make. The trouble here appear if M Ross leaves the US House.

West Virginia give not chance for strong improvements since a democratic point. It is really difficult to connect the most democratic areas of West Virginia for do two R+low districts what can favore to the democratic candidates. One of my conclusions here is the next:

For west Virgina the most republican areas will be in the new WV-02, and this can be surely an open seat. This generate some troubles.

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by: abgin @ Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 00:57:21 AM UTC

The WV Map

I like the idea of linking the Northern Panhandle and Charleston a lot. But that swing it takes to the East is weird. It'd be weird, very weird to split Mon, Marion and Harrison counties (personally I'd like to see those counties linked with the Eastern Panhandle). The other problem is simply one for whomever is elected in the green district (and her/his staff) - given where the mountains and the roads are, that would be a positively brutal district to get around in. Still, I like the concept of district 1, even if I assume the outcome will actually be more boring (like moving Mason County).

I like the Arkansas map.

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by: armand @ Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 02:37:25 AM UTC

Arkansas

I've gotten a district that's about 55% Obama (by my calculations), but it does pretty much throw Mike Ross under the bus. I like your maps.  

20, Democrat, KY-01

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by: westkydem @ Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 04:01:20 AM UTC

yes

I have the same result, you can see it in the link what is some comments up.

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by: abgin @ Fri Jan 14, 2011 at 04:40:36 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

West Virginia

1st (Blue) - 44%O 54%M
2nd (Green) - 37%O 61%M
3rd (Purple) - 47%O 51%M

I think the eastern panhandle, especially the eastern 3 counties, is like Washington County Maryland. Still very Republican but trending Democratic (unlike the rest of the state which is trending Republican).

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

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by: duffman @ Sat Jan 15, 2011 at 01:24:53 AM UTC

Trending Republican on the Presidential level.

A native who posted here some time ago said that in WV, the Democratic Party is pretty much the only game in town.  The Republican Party there is like a small, dedicated cabal who pay homage to the legacies of Barry Goldwater and the Moore family (thus why Rep. Moore Capito is so popular).

In 2010, the sucky year for Dems where GOPers there could try to tie the Dems to the "coal-hating" President, the State House went from 71-29 Dem to 65-35 Dem and the State Senate went from 26-8 Dem to 27-7 Dem.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Sat Jan 15, 2011 at 03:06:56 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I like the layout of this map.

I just hope it doesn't mess too much with the desires of Mollohan and Capito.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Sat Jan 15, 2011 at 03:08:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It is a very interesting map too

Again WV-02 is the most republican but this time you have N Rahall here (Raleigh county).

It is easy to include Raleigh in your third, but you need to change 44-45% Obama counties by Raleigh, 36% Obama losing some point in the rating of the district (until 45-46% Obama, what is not bad for West Virginia).

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by: abgin @ Sat Jan 15, 2011 at 03:18:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rahall would lose nearly all of his coal counties

and would get 80% new district.  Hmmm Hmmm good might not be his response.

I think if 2010 showed us anything in WV its a "friends and neighbors" state.  Rahall had 28 years of service to his area of the state to pull him through.  In WV1 each candidate in the open seat pulled in good numbers in their home area.  McKinley won just a bit more in the eastern and western parts of the district where neither candidate had strong regional or local ties.  I think Rahall does not part with a single county.  Whatever he picks up are going to be +55%McCain counties--why would his legislative friends do that to him.

You gave one county in the west to CD1 and one county in the west to CD3 from CD2 and balance the districts out population wise.  On paper they are all republican on a national level but candidates here have a personal connection that pulls them through.  

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by: rdelbov @ Sat Jan 15, 2011 at 03:37:45 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

the coal

Looking to the reserves of coal in the state:

http://www.wvminesafety.org/PD...

Just the counties with highest reserves of coal except Wyoming would be in the new WV-03 (in Dark Magenta) of Duffman's map (Logan, Boone, Mingo, Webster, Nicholas, Kanawha, McDowell). If you add Raleigh, also with good reserves and the home of Rahall, Duffman's WV-03 can be the district of the coual + Charleston. Still the counties with more coal give the best results for Obama.

I think Duffman draw this WV-03 in magenta for Rahall, while he find the more republican WV-02 in green as open (without S Moore Capito.

Looking closely to the numbers, for include Raleigh (36% Obama) in VW-03, Duffman only need to quit part of Cabell (44% Obama).  

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by: abgin @ Sat Jan 15, 2011 at 06:24:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Surely a little better still

To quit all Wayne (40% Obama) plus a part, not big, of Cabell (44%Obama).

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by: abgin @ Sat Jan 15, 2011 at 06:32:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Reserves of coal

is one thing but Rahall is almost certainly more concerned with UMW membership-retired coal miners and their families.

The heart of the UMW historical influence in Southern WV  is in MCDowell-Wyoming  Mingo Lincoln Wayne Boone.   You can go back to the 1920's and see the influence there.  Rahall soared in these counties as he always does.

I note that Manchin won huge in these 5 counties.  

I can assure Rahall would rather give up body parts then these counties.  

Coal reserves do not vote but 90 years of UMW heritage produces massive votes for Rahall.

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by: rdelbov @ Sat Jan 15, 2011 at 15:35:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

In the same link you have the coal production

You have the data about the reported production of coal, and the counties with higher production are so close again:

McDowell
Logan
Raleigh (Rahall's home)
Boone
Monogalia (WV-01)
Kanawha
Fayette
Mingo

The reserves of coal vote not, and the historical accumulate production vote not, but show where is the highest interest in the coal and where is the highest population what work in the coal.

I think it is not right to tell Rahall would lose the counties of the coal in Duffman's map.

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by: abgin @ Sat Jan 15, 2011 at 18:05:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Let me rephrase my point

Rahall would lose the counties in his district that he had for 28 years.  These counties that he would lose would the counties where the UMW historically has been the strongest and where Rahall's work on black lung disease and umw health care retiree issues have build him a rock solid base of support.  

Yes under the map above he would pick up coal counties but not counties where the UMW have been ultra strong.  The Southern coal counties have been the historical base of the UMW.  Compare the Manchin vote in 2010 in these southern counties-that I mentioned-and other coal counties.  When you start see 72% for a democrat in a rural white county you know its umw influence.  You see that sort rural white vote for a democrat only in the coal counties of WV-KY.  You cannot duplicate it anywhere in the USA.  Rural white county 70% D.  Where else in 2010 but coal country.  

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by: rdelbov @ Sat Jan 15, 2011 at 18:38:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Looking to the political data of the last elections in WV-03

I think these counties of the east side of the current district what get out WV-03 in Duffman's map:

Raleigh (what should be included as Rahall's home)
Cabell (part should get out for include Raleigh)
Wayne (should get out for include Raleigh)
Wyoming
Mercer
Summers
Monroe
Greenbier
Pocahontas

are the weaker counties for Rahall in the last elections.

As example in 2010 the worse counties for Rahall in the district are:

Mercer: 46.71% (losing the county)
Raleigh: 48.33% (losing the county)
Monroe: 52.09%
Greenbier: 55.28%
Cabell: 55.33%
Wayne: 55.54%
Summers: 57.03%
Wyoming: 57.48%
Nicholas: 57.81% (in Duffman's WV-03)
Pocahontas: 58.59%
All the others (all in Duffman's WV-03) vote over 60% for Rahall.

Again that mean Rahall's strongest basis would be in the counties what go to the new Duffman's WV-03. In change of his worse counties in 2010 he would receive Kanawha (Charleston), Roane, Clay and Braxton, what is an area significantly more democrat. I think the change would be not as bad. I think maybe an interesting change for Rahall.

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by: abgin @ Sat Jan 15, 2011 at 19:26:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You are probably right

and I might add that the SS's map above keeps all of Rahall's best counties but as noted would be a bear to keep up with.  

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by: rdelbov @ Sat Jan 15, 2011 at 20:13:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Both are so good maps

Duffman's map give a little improvement for Rahall and give a little better distribution of the democratic vote.

Silvers Spring's map give to the potential candidates from Charleston, basically to Carte Goodwin, the chance of run for WV-01.

I like both.

If Carte Godwin want to run for the US House I would go toward Silver Spring's map. If he want to run for Governor or other statewide office I would go toward Duffman's map.

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by: abgin @ Sat Jan 15, 2011 at 21:16:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Of course

including Rahall in Duffman's WV-03 (Raleigh to WV-03 and Wayne and part of Cabell to WV-02).

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by: abgin @ Sat Jan 15, 2011 at 21:19:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes both are interesting maps

Duffman's map with the core of Rahall's district (those southern coal counties that I mentioned) plus Kanawha maximizes the democratic vote in that CD. I think Capito would bail on that seat.  Rahall would probably move as he would be an underdog against Capito in the green district.

I think McKinley in CD1 might like that seat as the far eastern counties have been very willing to vote for GOP congressional candidates.  McKinely carried Grant & Mineral.  

I still go back to Rahall wanting to keep his homefolks in his district.  Oh he would give up Cabell or a few other counties but any county he got +60% in he would keep.  

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by: rdelbov @ Sat Jan 15, 2011 at 22:39:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It is other option. If Rahall is ready to move.

Just Raleigh is not his best county.

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by: abgin @ Sun Jan 16, 2011 at 03:17:53 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Exactly

Strip Nick Joe of the coal counties and give him Parkersburg? Not to go all Vizzini - but that's inconceivable. Acting Governor Tomblin is also from the coal counties, and I can't imagine that they'd strip them from Rahall after 30+ years.  

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by: armand @ Sat Jan 15, 2011 at 16:05:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think Duffman draw in Magenta the district of the south

for Rahall.

And the district of Parkersbourg in green thinking in an open seat.

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by: abgin @ Sat Jan 15, 2011 at 18:11:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks for the interesting comments

I didn't know Nick Rahall lives in Raleigh County. I just pieced together the most Democratic possible district in southern WV. Since Raleigh voted against Rahall in 2010 he may be better off without it. Meanwhile Kanawha is the largest county and it's about 50-50 at the presidential elvel which is much more Democratic than the state average so it should go in a Democratic district.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

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by: duffman @ Sat Jan 15, 2011 at 21:55:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Your map is effective doing it

Maybe Rahall want to move. It is not the first time he loses Raleigh. In 2004 Raleigh was the alone county he lost.

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by: abgin @ Sun Jan 16, 2011 at 03:19:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]