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SSP Daily Digest: 1/12

by: Crisitunity

Wed Jan 12, 2011 at 3:46 PM EST


• MA-Sen: Vicki Kennedy has pretty much ruled out a Senate run, if her comments to the Boston Globe are any indication. She says "the Senate is not my future;" poignantly, she recounts having received Ted's encouragement to run before his death but responding "You're Senator Kennedy, and that's it." Another Kennedy made some news yesterday, though, in fact generating his own little boomlet of Senatorial speculation: Joe III (son of the ex-Rep. and grandson of RFK) gave a mightily well-received speech in front of state legislators decrying the noxious turn in the nation's political discourse. The 30-year-old is currently a prosecutor in Barnstable County and has turned down previous attempts to get him to run for office. Finally, some of the more cogent members of the local tea party seem to have made peace with the fact, despite their discomfort with his voting record, that Scott Brown isn't going to be successfully challenged in the GOP primary in 2012, and are dissuading others from that line of thought. The article mentions recent House race losers Jeff Perry and Jim Ogonowski as possible names, but in the context of even them not likely to be able to gain any traction against Brown in a primary.

• PA-Sen: PPP released Republican primary numbers as part of their Pennsylvania package today, and as with many of their recent primary polls, it's quite the collection of people who aren't going to run. They try doing it both with-Santorum and without-Santorum. (Yes, yes, I know that sounds gross.) The Santorum-covered version, thanks to his high name rec (81% of GOPers have an opinion about him, while Schweiker comes in second at 33%), finds him way in the lead, at 45, with Rep. Jim Gerlach at 9, ex-Gov. Mark Schweiker and Rep. Charlie Dent both at 8, Rep. Tim Murphy at 7, state Sen. Jake Corman at 3, and state Sen. Kim Ward and actual announced candidate Marc Scaringi both at 1. The Santorum-free version gives the edge to Schweiker at 18, Gerlach at 14, Murphy at 13, Dent at 10, Corman at 9, Ward at 2, and Scaringi at 1.

• TX-Sen: This story may be better filed under "Dallas mayor" since it points to a somewhat unexpected vacancy that's going to need to be filled in November. The mayoral candidacy of city council member Ron Natinsky, a key ally of Republican mayor Tom Leppert, makes it pretty clear that Leppert isn't going to run for a second term as mayor. Leppert has often been cited a potential wild card in the GOP Senate primary against Kay Bailey Hutchison, and this may mean he's moving toward that race.

• MS-Gov: Hattiesburg mayor Johnny DuPree made it official today, filing his papers for a gubernatorial run. He'll face off against businessman Bill Luckett in the Democratic primary, and if he wins there, most likely against Republican Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant in the general.

• IL-14: A new profile of ex-Rep. Bill Foster has him sounding pretty uncandidate-ish in the future. He says he'd like to explore business opportunities in green energy and would consider an executive branch position if asked, but there's nary a suggestion of a rematch.

• PA-Auditor: Allegheny Co. Exec (and 2010 gubernatorial loser) Dan Onorato says he won't run for a third term as county executive; this is widely assumed to mean that he'll be pursuing a bid for state Auditor in 2012. (I'm wondering if Jack Wagner, whom you also remember from the gubernatorial race, can run for a 3rd term as Auditor, and, if so, if he's ruled it out? Anybody know about that?) At any rate, Onorato seems to be looking at lower statewide office as a better stepping-stone for his ambitions; he's young enough that he's probably thinking down the road to a 2016 challenge to Pat Toomey or even the 2018 open seat gubernatorial race (which, if history is any guide, will go to a Democrat).

• Special elections: As expected, last night's special elections in Virginia went to the Republicans with totals over 60% (letting them hold both of the red districts up for grabs). Gregory Habeeb is taking over for Robert Hurt in SD-19, while William Stanley takes over for Morgan Griffith in HD-8. Also, in Mississippi, Nancy Adams Collins won in SD-11 to succeed Alan Nunnelee; I can't find any confirmation that she, in fact, was the Republican in the race, but I have dim memories (correct me if I'm wrong) from the myriad MS-01 special elections that special elections in Mississippi don't include party labels on the ballot.

• 2010: You're probably all familiar with the gender gap, but Michael McDonald shows in pretty dramatic fashion just how significant the "age gap" has become, with a 16-point gap in 2010 between the parties between the 18-29 set and the 65+ set, the largest that's ever been. The unfortunate flipside, which does a lot to explain the 2010 results, is that young voter falloff in midterm elections (25% in 2006, 51% in 2008) is much greater than among older voters (63% in 2006, 71% in 2008), boosting Republican odds thanks to their increased strength among seniors.

• Demographics: I suppose we don't need any hints about where people are moving since we just got reapportionment data, but here's some more in-depth data from the Census Bureau, based on what states people are moving into and out of. Long-distance moves hit a record low in 2009, thanks in large part to the sluggish economy disproportionately hitting young adults. Housing bubble/service-sector cities like Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Orlando had drops in migration, while more knowledge-sector places like Austin, Raleigh, and Portland were gainers among young adults.

• Redistricting: I'm hesitant to heap praise on one particular Dave's Redistricting App map diary here, because, really, they're all fantastic and an important part of the site and the community; I learn something new from most of them and they're all time-consuming works of art, so thanks to everyone who posts them. But silver spring's Illinois diary is worthy of some extra attention, in the hopes that the powers-that-be (in this state that's probably the Dems' single best shot to run up the redistricting score) might see this diary and take its basic ideas into account. It's a map that takes the almost-unthinkable and makes it plausible: a map that's 15-3 in favor of Democrats based on 2008 presidential data, and even creates a second Hispanic VRA district for good measure.
Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 1/12
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SSP Daily Digest: 1/12 | 223 comments
So much for my Vickie Kennedy obsession!
I guess it's Capuano?  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
*Vicki
Apparently I'm not that obsessed. I can't even get her name correct!

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Perry,et al...
Perry against Brown?  Are you kidding me?  Brown helped Perry big time in the primary against (the more moderate) Joe Malone and they are good friends.  It's not that he can't gain traction against him...his chance of entering the race is exactly 0%!  

Eh, I guess when people think that the sitting SoS is going to challenge POTUS in a Primary, you can write anything without any evidence these days.

[ Parent ]
Just came down here to post that
Theres about as big a chance of Biden primarying Obama as Perry primarying Brown.  
[ Parent ]
Capuano
should be our strongest candidate with Vicki out of the race  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
Brown was pretty secure the moment DADT repeal passed.
 As odd as it may seem Brown is actually a very good fit for the state. The state has always been more Democratic than it is liberal, and one of the challenges Republicans not named Paul Cellucci had was that a large portion of working-class voters who were conservative socially consistently voted Democratic.

Brown has cultural appeal to those voters, and his votes on other issues do not in anyway alienate high-income suburbanites. Also, do not underestimate the value of being important to Massachusetts voters. For thirty years the state has not mattered in the least nationally. Now one of our Senators is a key swing vote.  The fact that Brown consistently holds the administration hostage is a benefit to him as long as he charges a reasonable price for his votes.

The above is particularly true given that Kerry is widely viewed as a non-entity in terms of constituent service, and as a bit of a joke as a national figure. People will be reluctant to fire Brown to replace him with another Kerry, or some random machine hack like Capuano or Meehan. The Democrat will have to present himself as another Kennedy if he(or she) wants to beat Brown.

Brown really had one weakness. In the legislature he had been one of the most consistently anti-Gay Senators, helping lead the fight against gay marriage and opposing adoption by same-sex couples. This was a potential ideological in, one that with the repeal of DADT is now more or less closed. Realistically, how could a Democrat claim that Brown has been insufficiently pro-gay at this point? For christ sakes, he invited one of the most militant leaders of the Gay Marriage movement, who posted the home addresses of signatories of the ballot initiative online, to the signing ceremony as his guest.

And the above is why Brown won't lose. Every major interest group in the state has thrown in with him, which means no Democrat has any sort of base with which to go after him. And they won't as long as a Democrat is in the White House. Brown is quite lucky actually that he is up in 2012, because the one question he dreads, whether he would filibuster a Palin SCOTUS nominee, will never have to be answered.

This is actually why suspect Menino and Vicki are bowing out. They realize they are unlikely to win, and that a loss would damage their prestige/

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

[ Parent ]
Well, too hard to say.
Nobody's put any effort against him right now because it's still a ways out and they need a challenger to coalesce around.  To say he's unbeatable is mere conjecture.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Militant leader? Who?
Might I add he is no friend of the LGBT movement. Just because he voted for DADT doesn't mean very much. Remember it has wide support in the country and I would assume even wider support in the state of Massachusetts. Let's see him vote to repeal DOMA or ENDA. Then and only then will we talk about him being a friend or ally. The degree to which you use conjecture astounds me.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Militant may be a bad choice of words
But if you have Tom Lang onboard, you are pretty secure. One of the weird ironies of the Massachusetts gay community is its quite conservative. Because the GOP in the 90s was dominated by Bill Weld while the Democrats had Tom Finneran running the show, it was arguable that the GOP was at least as Pro-Gay if not moreso. The result is that all of the high-income folks who dominate the political organizations sort of followed their natural economic interests into the GOP. This ended with Romney's opportunistic move to the Right, but with the marriage issue settled, natural political allegiances are reasserting themselves.

As for DOMA - its a free vote for Brown. No one is bringing it up, no one is talking about bringing it up, and with the House in GOP hands there is zero chance it will be brought up. But you see that is what the Democrat will be reduced to running on. Brown is anti-gay because he doesn't support a hypothetical bill that doesn't actually exist. And all of a sudden Capuano or Meehan are in the exact same black hole Tom Allen fell into. Trying to argue that their opponent is too conservative for the state, but struggling to come up with anything at all that will stick for the vast majority of voters.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

[ Parent ]
In the interests of disclosure
I did work for Susan Collins in 2008. I think people underestimate how in many cases its very hard to run against "moderates" in districts friendly for your party. You need a narrative other than my opponent is a "Democrat" or is "Too Conservative/Liberal" for the state. Without a narrative you are reduced to going personally negative, which doesn't work because the incumbent is almost always personally liked by everyone, while no one has a clue who you are other than some nasty jerk lobbing attacks.

Tom Allen had this problem. He never came up with a reason why he would be a better Senator than Collins, or why she needed to go, so he got sucked into a hole of launching attack after attack which simply reduced his own image to rubble. Coakley ended up doing the same thing.

The only really successful case of this in recent memory is against Chaffee. And Chafee was a much weaker campaigner than either Collins or Brown, and Whitehouse had a narrative, namely that Chafee might be the deciding vote keeping the Senate GOP and in George Bush's hands. Whoever runs against Brown can't use this since the Democrats control the senate and Obama is President. Any effort to invoke it will be hypothetical("we are probably going to lose seats anyway and this one might be decisive and Obama might lose even though I have to say otherwise because I am running on a ticket with him"). And a line like that will sound as awkward as it just appeared.

This is doubly bad if your someone like Meehan or Capuano who has been in politics their whole life, and therefore doesn't even have an interesting personal narrative to run on. I have no doubt the Democrats will go hard negative against Brown, but I have severe doubts whether it will accomplish much unless they can come up with something to go negative on.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

[ Parent ]
So then
the Democrats will find someone besides Meehan or Capuano to run. It's not as if there's a dearth of Democrats in the state.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Capuano had some of the worst numbers
anyways. So I think it would be good to find someone else. What was the name of that state senator?  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Sonia Chang-Diaz
Now there is someone with a story. Former school teacher, mixed Chinese/Hispanic background, reformist reputation, you get the idea she would be running for senate because she wants to do things rather than have a bigger office. Still a bit on the young side(she is 32), but I suspect out-of-the box thinking would be helpful here. Its why Kay Hagan for instance was probably a much better candidate than someone like McIntryre would have been against Dole. Lower profile but she came off as a real person.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent
[ Parent ]
I think it would be in the Democratic parties best interest that someone
like her wins the nomination. I would have liked Vicki Kennedy to run, but Sonia Chang-Diaz seems like a good choice. She's young, but that could be an asset if used correctly.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Could she raise the money though?
That will be crucial.
[ Parent ]
I have no clue.
It would be a huge plus if she could, but of course money will be pumped into Massachusetts no matter what. She would of course need to raise a lot herself.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
I just saw on Wikipedia that her father
was an astronaut. That's pretty cool lineage.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Only the seat may well determine control
And there are plenty examples other than Chafee. Bill Roth, Gordon Smith, Norm Coleman, numerous House incumbents from both parties. Also popular governors who didn't make it to the Senate because their state leaned strongly to the other party.
[ Parent ]
Actually, Brown voted to stop DC from legalizing gay marriage
it's really cute to pretend that he's a friend of the gay community, but I don't think that counts as "a hypothetical bill that doesn't actually exist."

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Maybe he'll be hard to beat,
but I don't think he'll be impossible to beat. I'll just simply copy what I posted in another thread:

If you look at the 2008 exit polls for president, Democrats made up 43 percent of voters, while Republicans made up 17 percent and Independents made up 40 percent of voters. (They were, according to CNN, slightly different for Senate, but not enough to make using one set more worthwhile than the other.) If that's the case, and the Democrat wins 70 percent of Democratic voters, 10 percent of Republican voters, and splits Independents, he wins with 51.8 percent in a two-man race.

But in that January special election, he blew Coakley away with Independents winning that group by 32 points. He only won 19 percent of the Democratic vote. Let's assume that, in a two-man race, he wins 25 percent of Democrats, 90 percent of Republicans, and 60 percent of Independents. He'd win, just barely, with 50.05 percent of the vote. But if he gets 19 percent of Democrats and the other numbers stay the same, he only gets 47.47 percent of the vote. If he wins only 19 percent of the Democratic vote but gets an amazing 65 percent of the Independent vote, he still loses with 49.47 percent.

Nobody really expects Brown to lose big, but it doesn't seem unrealistic to expect the Democrat to pull out a win, even if it's a very small one. Generally speaking, if the breakdown of the electorate is similar to 2008, the Democratic candidate just has to win at least 80 percent of Democrats and split Independents, and he or she will probably flip the seat. Hell, if the Democrat can win just 40 percent of Independents but still retain 80 percent Democrats, he or she will probably win.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
The Numbers Look Intimidating
But they did for Susan Collins as well in both 2002 and 2008. And she blew highly-touted opponents away both times. Again, i think if the Democrats could find a compelling candidate who had a personal story(one reason why if I were Brown I would be a bit scared of the Setti Warren style bomb-lets) and a narrative, but my immediate family for instance are Democrats, they voted for Gore, Kerry, Obama, and Patrick twice. Two of them even voted for Coakley. The thing is, while they are not fans of Brown, they have no real desire to have Capuano or Meehan as Senator. Brown quite simply, in less than a year in office has become the go-to person for every business and every interest group in the state, even the teachers unions. No one will throw that away unless they have a reason to suspect that you will be getting more than generic Democrat #47.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent
[ Parent ]
The numbers are challenging
But considering the potential challengers are hardly known and Deval Patrick is only seven points back with even favorables I think they aren't as good as they were for Collins. MA is also far more Democratic than Maine.
[ Parent ]
Not a valid comparison b/c Maine is far less liberal than Massachusetts......
You're talking about the only state that wanted George McGovern(!) for President.

It's not become "more conservative" since then, with an All-Democratic House delegation for over a decade, laughably one-sided Demorcratic margins in the state legislature, and a liberal black Governor who ultimately coasted in a bad Democratic year.  Brown's special election win was the outlier, the state GOP was very depressed on election night in November.

All the above contrasts starkly to Maine.

Maine is center-left, Massachusetts left.  That some of the Democratic base are not so liberal doesn't change that fact.

As long as Democrats nominate someone who proves to run a good campaign, MA-Sen is a tossup.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Would you say
that the Democrats have room to grow as far as it comes to using their ability to turn voters out? I would have to think so. After all, when was the last time the machine had to kick into high gear and not at the last minute?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
What bomblets?
I were Brown I would be a bit scared of the Setti Warren style bomb-lets

I don't know anything about Setti Warren except what I just read in her Wikipedia bio.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
This kind of certainty
Really gets my goat.
[ Parent ]
Yep
I call it "crystal balling" and I don't like it one bit. If you want to make a prediction, you need to put an "I think" in front of it. Few things grate on me more than opinions stated as facts.
[ Parent ]
I appologize then
I did not mean to make a statement of utter certainty. Nothing is certain in this world.

But I wanted to provide the perspective of someone on the ground who has worked in New England. This is an amazing site, but a lot of people approach politics like a sports game, and assume that if you are a democratic elected official like the Mayor of Lowell or Boston your highest priority should be getting a Democrat elected and talk of a "machine" that should do this or that in abstract/

Massachusetts is not like that. A machine exists because it has money and a self-interested patronage network, and it is perfectly willing to backstab ideologically compatible candidates if they threaten its interests, see the 1998 Governors race where the Republican won Worcester and Lowell for an example if you doubt it. Tom Menino is Mr. Democrat, and when he says Brown is unbeatable and all the top candidates are bowing out its because they are seeing the same thing I am, namely that Brown has locked down the state to a degree not seen since Weld ran for reelection in 1994.

Let's take Menino for instance. Boston is dependent on federal grants and projects for practically everything. With an all democratic house delegation, your out-of luck in the house, and Kerry produced laughter among a group of Democratic legislators I was with in 2004 at the prospect of him getting anything done. Brown is the only game in town. So of course you will go through the motions of endorsing the Democratic nominee. But you won't go too far because you don't want to piss Brown off if he wins, and you don't want him to lose anyway. Whats true of Menino is true of the Mayors of Lowell, Worcester, Lynn, and Springfield, and is true of the teachers union, the major gay organizations, planned parenthood. Because if you are any of the above you do not want Brown winning without your support. I mean any Democrat will be Pro-Choice and Pro-Gay rights, regardless of how much support you give them, but Brown went out on a limb to deliver for you, so now you want to deliver for him. And if he still loses, guess what, its a win-win.

Can a Democrat win? Absolutely its Massachusetts.But anyone with connections knows they will have to do it while being substantially outspent, with most of the machine on the sidelines unless they can make it close on their own since no one is going to go out on a limb to defeat Brown for the heck of it or simply to have a Democrat in the senate as much as some out-of-state Democrats may value that. Its simply not something that matters to anyone who actually has to produce day to day results for their town, city, union etc. They would prefer a Democratic Senate and Democratic Senator in abstract, but if the result is Obama with GOP House and Senate, Brown is better for every single interest group from the Mass Equality to Teachers to Mayor Menino than a first-term Senator Meehan or Capuano. And they suspect he will win anyway.

And remember, while Massachusetts was the only state to vote for George McGovern, that same year it reelected a Republican Senator by 22 points.

I agree anything could happen. But my feeling was that Brown neutralized the last major potential core of opposition with the DADT repeal. Now the major gay rights orgs are obligated not to openly recruit or organize against him, which previously was a core somewhere could recruit volunteers and raise money off of. And since he has bought off everyone else, anyone running is going to be a bit lonely till they prove their viability.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

[ Parent ]
First of all,
which top candidates have bowed out? Were Vicki Kennedy and Deval Patrick really the best of the best? I might have missed something, but I haven't seen a lot of the other candidates say much of anything. Couldn't it be that a lot of them are just waiting to see how the congressional districts are drawn?

Now, like I said in the specific Brown-related diary, your claims about constituent services isn't crazy, but I'll need to hear more before I believe anything. Exactly what has Brown done for these groups? And what can be do that no Democrat can't do, even if he or she has to go above and beyond in kissing the asses of various interest groups?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Interesting and enlightening.
Thanks for the commentary.

http://mypolitikal.com/
[ Parent ]
Not all the people what can present himself as another Kennedy is out the race.
The Democrat will have to present himself as another Kennedy if he(or she) wants to beat Brown.

I think this is right. For me it is so obvious. The people is finding another Kennedy. But...

And the above is why Brown won't lose. Every major interest group in the state has thrown in with him, which means no Democrat has any sort of base with which to go after him. And they won't as long as a Democrat is in the White House.

but I think this is not right because not all the people what can present himself as another Kennedy is out the race.

[ Parent ]
you were going to get an intelligent response back
But now you get sassy gay man.  Militant leader of the Gay Marriage movement, gays aren't even allowed in the military openly as of yet.  (Implementation also takes time.)
[ Parent ]
It was a bad use of term
But Mr. Lang is not popular in certain circles. Please excuse the craziness below

http://www.therightperspective...

Which is odd because he is a Weld Republican. He just happens to care a lot and have a very personal stake in equality, and he played as rough as the opposition. The point however is that Brown in the legislature was a co-sponsor of the ballot initiative that Lang organized so hard against, and now Lang is throwing him a fund-raiser.  

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

[ Parent ]
Ive always been so torn on that issue
But publishing a website for the purpose is certainly far far too extreme for my liking, and now in the context of the AZ shootings, really inappropriate and only stoking the fire.

In all reality, the only people who should be using those lists are political organizations so they know where their base or anti-base is.

[ Parent ]
I'd like to visit the planet
where Massachusetts, a state with two very important senators (2004 Dem presidential nominee + Ted freakin Kennedy), has been irrelevant nationally. I hope it's warmer than Earth.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
It's about as warm
in Boston as it is here in Dallas! (27 there vs. 30 here according to the Weather Channel)

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
High of 46 today in Kyoto
but Japan is notorious for its lack of central heating. not sure whether to be jealous or not!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
PA-Auditor General
Yep, all the statewide electeds (Gov, Atty Gen, Aud Gen, Treasurer) are limited to two four-year terms.  Pa Const, Art IV sec 18:
The terms of the Auditor General and of the State Treasurer shall each be four years from the third Tuesday of January next ensuing his election. They shall be chosen by the qualified electors of the Commonwealth at general elections but shall not be eligible to serve continuously for more than two successive terms. The State Treasurer shall not be eligible to the office of Auditor General until fours years after he has been State Treasurer.

MS SD-11
Senator-elect Collins is indeed a Republican, Democrats didn't even come into second place in these races including another local race, where there will be a runoff between 2 GOPers in a post that was held by a Democrat.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
The Dallas Mayoral election is actully in May
May 12 to be exact.

http://www.wfaa.com/news/local...

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


Hmm.
Below, I said that there really wasn't any way a Democrat that won this race could be the nominee for the Senate in 2012, but if he's got a year or so in office before the race, maybe he or she could be the candidate.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
NJ-Sen
No mention of PPPolling having Menendez looking weak?

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
Patience
They will have a unique thread for it soon enough.
[ Parent ]
i'd expect...
Its own full-fledged article within 12/24 hours...
[ Parent ]
Perhaps the following title:
Menendez' Meh Approvals

[ Parent ]
He leads Guadagno and Dobbs big
But leads Kean Jr by only 2:
http://publicpolicypolling.blo...
[ Parent ]
Hehe
William Stanley taking over for Morgan Griffith. I thought politicians from that area were supposed to hate Wall Street!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
It's backward
Habeeb won Griffith's House seat, Stanley won Hurt's Senate seat.
[ Parent ]
Habeeb!?!?!?!

[ Parent ]
.....
MA-Sen: As with Snowe, I dont get why tea-partiers are throwing in the towel already.  They didnt do much in the way of recruiting in 2010 and they managed to find candidates they liked and won primaries with just fine.  The lesson they need to learn from 2010 isn't to find big name candidates, it's that no names candidates are fine if they dont have fatal flaws.

How did Dallas elect a Republican mayor?

Off to look at Silver Springs diary.  15/3 with a second Hispanic VRA?  I call bullshit!  ;)

i think it has a lot to do with...
Delaware & Nevada.  While we like to think of all of the Tea-partiers as electorally challenged, I think more of them (NOT all, by any stretch) are thinking more rationally.  

Here's something I speculate that I haven't heard anywhere:  Maine is a small state.  I'm sure a lot of the Tea-Party leaders who were close with LePage may be getting jobs from him, or are connected to people getting jobs with him, or are being considered for jobs with his admin right now.  If he is being vocal in his support of Snowe, now's not the time to give him the finger and break with him.  Not if you want to be hired.  Things are a lot different from the inside looking out!!!

[ Parent ]
Still early though
Long, long way to go before getting anywhere near the Dino Rossi deadline.
[ Parent ]
I agree with this...
I think there was a lot of wishful thinking among progressives regarding potential tea party challenges in 2012, but particularly if Obama starts looking stronger, there's not going to be as much interest in taking out Republicans who can actually win in liberal states.

The other thing that should be noted is that in the case of both Angle and O'Donnell, they got funding from outside sources, and would probably not have won without it. That may not be available to obscure "Tea Party" opponents of Snowe and Brown, and they won't win without at least some money.

(and finally, O'Donnell was a unique situation - neither Maine nor Massachusetts has the equivalent of Delaware's two southern counties that carried O'Donnell to her victory in the primary).  

[ Parent ]
I don't agree at all
Snowe is the perfect example of a "RINO." She will definitely get a challenge on ideological grounds

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
I agree.
I would change markhanna's comments to say that the party higher ups won't have any interest in seeing Republicans who can win easily fall to Teabaggers that could easily lose and will thus have a great deal of interest in preventing them from screwing things up. But the Teabaggers won't be deterred, since they want people to be ideologically pure.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I'll bet you Senator DeMint
will fundraise for her opponent!

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Only once and if she's defeated in a primary.
He's on thin ice with the leadership after he supported far-right candidates last year that ended up in Democrats doing better than expected in the Senate.  Like Murkowski, he won't stab Snowe in the back before the primary.  He knows that if he hurts his colleagues like that, they can punish him by throwing him off every committee.

Once and if Snowe loses a primary, Demint will then stab her in the back.  Like when he sent a fundraising letter out in support of Miller where he called Murkowski a RINO derogatively.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
Didn't he say...
He was supporting all incumbent Rs?  He'll try to do his thing in open seats and D held seats.  
[ Parent ]
Is this a new policy?
He certainly didn't support Lisa Murk.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
i thought i remember seeing that too...
Looking for source...
[ Parent ]
here
[ Parent ]
He only endorsed Miller
After the primary. He does not endorse against incumbents in primaries.  
[ Parent ]
Anymore.


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I think not the same

They are some O'Donnell in many blue states. As example Lamontagne (NH), and Maine has the republican candidate for governor in 2006, as example.

I think the bigger trouble for the teabaggers of the "downticket" races this time will be the money.

The first goal of every teabagger in the US is the primary for president. And here will be the teabagger money in 2012.

But still they can be dangerous for some moderate republicans.

[ Parent ]
Obama in Iowa
Surprisingly strong numbers. 50% job approval.

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

sounds reasonable
The state is D+1 overall and Obama is in the high 40s in most national polls.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
PA-Auditor
99.9999% sure PA constitutional office holders have a 2-term limit. That's why quite a few of them have bounced back and forth between Auditor and Treasurer.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)
What are
the chances of the Democrats winning the mayoral race in Dallas?

Also, if things were to go badly for the Democrats in Illinois, like they did this year, what are the chances of Democrats losing more than one or two of these seats?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

Pretty good.
Dallas is pretty Democratic.  The reason why they elected a Republican is because the Dem was seen as too liberal, according to a wikipedia article on the race.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Wrong word
He was not too liberal he was . . .  GAAAAAAAAYYYYY!!!!!!!

The conservatives teamed up with the black mega churches to put the stop on that nonsense. :-P

If it's an open seat, easy dem pick up. If Leppert runs for re-election, like any non corrupt incumbent, he is at least favored. A dem could win, but it'd be difficult. Remember, in Texas, municipal elections do not have party identification on the ballot. The Dallas Dem party, after coming off it's '06 sweep, tried to very clearly make the Mayor race in '07 about electing the dem, something that didn't settle well with more of the populace.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
*facepalms* Oops, didn't know.
Fuck you, wikipedia!

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
What do you mean?
Why wouldn't that go over well with the population?

Anyway, is Dallas a good launching pad to the governorship or something like a congressional seat? I can't see him running for the Senate in 2012, since he'd have to launch a campaign pretty much the moment he was sworn in as mayor, but it'd be nice to have him as an option for something bigger down the line.

Also, I read a little about Leppert today. He doesn't seem like the sort of guy that would go over well with Teabaggers, so how far would you expect him to go in a senate primary?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Well, it was 4 years ago
The climate can change a lot. Ed Oakley (Dem candidate) was liberal, but his sexual orientation was made into the campaign issue. A major portion of the democratic base in downtown Dallas is the African American community, Leppert was able to reach out and work with them on the grounds of cultural conservatism. Leppert still won narrowly (53-47? maybe? I think?)

You asked about a Mayorship being a launching pad to a congressional seat, it's a launching pad to a statewide gig. Dallas includes 5 congressmen, it would be a step down from being an executive like Mayor of the second largest city in Texas. Leppert is a Chamber of Commerce candidate, he'd be a good replacement for Hutchison's supporters in the event she decides not to seek re-election. TEA party support will not be his. Leppert imported himself to Texas, and this mayoral gig was his first foray into elected politics. There are more rapid and skilled people itching to move up the ladder on the GOP side before him. There's no room for him in this Texas Republican Party.

Texas has runoffs, the TEA flavored candidate who gets to go to a runoff (likely in second place behind Hutch, Leppert, or another consensus Chamber of Commerce candidate) will win the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. I dunno if Hutchison will run or not in 2012, but I do know she will not be the 2012 nominee.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Dallas mayoral is only good for a statewide run
Unless Dallas elects either a Hispanic or AA mayor as no white Democrat can win a Congressional seat in Dallas.  And being gay in Dallas means having to beat back the Republicans and the minorities.  It's so tragic that AA voters only align themselves with Republicans when it comes to civil rights issues.
[ Parent ]
Why can't
the white Democrat try for a congressional seat? I get that it could be considered a step down, but could he even try if he wanted to? Is it it the way the congressional districts are drawn?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
yup
They're either majority-minority or Republican, period.  A Fort Worth seat is possible whenever we get to draw the map.  (One can wish right?)
[ Parent ]
Even for someone like
Pete Sessions? I'm trying to find out more about his specific district, but my first thought is that his district is big enough and diverse enough so that the Democrats can simply make up the majority of the difference with new voters. I get that we aren't going to knock off Jeb Hensarling any time soon, but as I've said in a few different contests, we should look for a potential coalition in every single possible district. We aren't going to double the number of potentially competitive seats from 60 to 120, but perhaps by taking a more expansive view, we can make that number 70, 75, or even 80.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Interesting fact
If the Democrats pick up the Dallas.  Every major city in Texas will have a Democratic mayor.

Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Austin, Fort Worth, El Paso.

[ Parent ]
If the cities went from being Dem leaning to Solid dem
we would probably have a shot in the state would'nt we. Please call me wrong if you think that perdiction is way off but winning the races for mayor is probably a good first step.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Dems need more than the cities.
In the past two statewide elections '08 President and '10 Governor the Dems won every major county except Tarrant County (Fort Worth)

Winning the most populous counties isn't enough.  The GOP strongholds in West Texas, East Texas, and the conservative northern suburbs of DFW make it very difficult for the Democrats to win.

Now if Dallas, Bexar and Harris County went as Democratic as Travis county that would really be something.

[ Parent ]
But your right
Winning mayors races is a good first step to show voters that Democrats aren't the "i'm going to take your guns and give your tax money to illegal immigrants and make your children atheists" stereotype the GOP tends to portray them as, in my opinion.
[ Parent ]
RNC Chair Predictions?
What does everyone think will happen when the RNC chair election takes place Friday?

A few weeks ago, I felt like Wagner would win. She had momentum and had just passed up Anuzis in public commitments and was nipping on Steele's heels. Now, her momentum has slowed drastically at the wrong time. Since then, she has picked up little more support, Anuzis retied her, and Cino is just two behind, after doubling her support in the last week. Now, I feel like Anuzis is the candidate to watch. He is easily the most liked by everyone, has been an RNC member for a while, and is able to pick up Steele allies since he worked for Steele after he won in 2009. He has avoided attacking Steele, and, unlike Priebus, Steele's people do not see him as a traitor. If Wagner or Cino drop out after the first few rounds, their  support is more likely to go to Anuzis, rather than Priebus, since they ran the most anti-Steele campaigns. Wagner's is still in it, as she has received some positive press the last few days, and there are many members on the record as being for Wagner or Cino or Wagner or anuzis, but have yet to publicly commit. If Cino drops early, Wagner is the main beneficiary, as  her supporters are people who only would consider Wagner and Cino, since they were the only two without any Steele ties. If Cino's support pushes Wagner past Anuzis and he drops out, she again is the main beneficiary. Much of their support is from movement conservatives and the south, so they will probably pick up most of each others support (assuming cino is out early). Right now, I could see anything happening, except a Steele victory. If I were a betting man, I'd bet on Anuzis, but Wagner, or even Cino, could pull the upset. I have a hard time seeing Priebus getting through with so many still undeclared.  

I thought before I read this that Priebus had the upper hand
Now, I guess Anzius would be the favorite, which I find suprising. Seems like he's been around a long time - I thought they might try for some new blood.
 
[ Parent ]
He has more public commitement
But its hard seeing him getting enough votes among the undecideds. Other than Steele, he is, surprisingly, the most polarizing figure in the campaign. People either love him or hate him. If there is a frontrunner and you are not supporting him now, I don't see you supporting him later.  
[ Parent ]
Even more evidence
That it's (still) the economy, stupid.

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/18...

Which leads to this
Obama job approval - 50% Approve, 47% Disapprove. That makes two today. No coincidence.

http://www.ipsos-na.com/downlo...

 

[ Parent ]
PPP was an outlier then?


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Could be Adults versus RV
But Rasmussen is LV and has been at 48 for the last six days. Whatever the actual number he is clearly on an uptick as can clearly be seen in the Gallup weekly numbers.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124...

[ Parent ]
I pointed out in a comment elsewhere another methodological difference...
...is DailyKos commissioned RBS polls, instead of RDD.  Last year when SUSA repeatedly jumped the shark in VA-05 one commenter here frequently asserted that the RBS samples SUSA used were a bad choice of methodology because voter lists are poor and the samples skew Republican.  I have no idea if that's true, but it was true that SUSA was way off in every single one of its VA-05 polls, so they did something dramatically wrong.

Now PPP's DK weekly polls are using RBS.  FWIW.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
7 points margin of error on independents.
Does that skew the poll possibly or because its a subset there can be a slightly higher MOE.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
You have to wonder
how high his approval rating will go if the economy starts to add a lot more jobs. Michael Mandel says that is a real possibility, specifically stating: "The labor market is getting ready for a massive rise in employment over the next year,  as companies finally start hiring for positions they've been advertising for." I'm not sure what to think of his claim--to be honest, I am not sure if I understand how he's figuring this--but if he's at or near 50 percent with very small increases, I guess the sky might be the limit if we see a real upturn.

http://innovationandgrowth.wor...


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I get the feeling that Denny Rehberg isn't going to
run for anything except his House seat in 2012.
Governor is out of the question with Rick Hill running, and Senate gets more and more unlikely with him FINALLY getting a subcommittee chairmanship. More importantly, the State GOP is starting to pimp Daines and raise his public profile. If Rehberg were still seriously considering a run, I think they'd more or less ignore Daines.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)
Pres 2012: Herman Cain Launches Exploratory Committee
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...
When Red Racing Horses launches next week, we will have an interview with him.  
Is that the name for the new SSP-R?
"Red Racing Horses"

reminds me of "red riding hood".  

[ Parent ]
My thought was more...
[ Parent ]
Is there any reason to think he'll go anywhere?
Does he have some connections with insiders or something is he just the really random dude he appears?
[ Parent ]
The Mike Gravel of 2012
That's my thought.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
he came in second
behind palin in the RedState poll.  i think erickson was surprised.

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
And we all know
Redstate is a reflection of reality./s

Nice to see they think Romney and Huck are chopped liver.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
Just signed up
www.redracinghorses.com

Is user Ryan_in_SEPA the former Ryan_in_delco?

[ Parent ]
Mmm
I think I might lurk a bit first and see what the tone is like. No offense GOPVOTER.
[ Parent ]
Most likely
I just signed up there as well.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
as did I
i feel like there'll be too many of us dems on that site..

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't mind just lurking
until sufficient numbers of Rs sign up, and they have some database of diaries.

If the numbers of Ds who sign up is an issue, I hope GOPVOTER lets us know. If he'd prefer that we lurk for a while, that's what I'll do.

Especially after the attempted assassination of Giffords (and what has happened since), I very much want redracinghorses to succeed as a viable force in the blogsphere.

It can be our contribution to de-escalating the political animus online.

[ Parent ]
I'll be honest, the best way to de-escalate...
...is to separate.

As I've said many times, elections are not bipartisan.

It was a common rule of etiquette I heard as a child that politics and religion are not discussed in polite company.  There's a reason for that.  Hell, sometimes you can't even talk about sports......I won't talk about ISU or Iowa with a Hawk fan.  Whenever ISU fans go to rivalry games in Iowa City, they report back about receiving taunts and insults.  One time an ISU fan's car was turned over.  And ours is far from the most heated rivalry in sports.  I went with my oldest brother to the ISU-Iowa football game in Iowa City in 2002, and I was scared the whole time at the stadium, more in the 2nd half when we stormed back to win than in the 1st half when we well behind big.  There's a lesson in elections, too, there, that one should always expect the losing side to be conspicuously angry.

Point is, it's human nature, not "incivility," that it's very hard for people on opposite sites to discuss disagreements on emotional topics, sometimes even if it's a relatively frivolous one like sports.  And politics and religion are emotional topics that clearly are not frivolous.

All that being the case, I think RRR is a great idea, giving Republicans a safe forum of their own while simultaneously diverting them from here.  And I expect nothing would hurt RRR more than having it start out with a bunch of Democrats(!) posting comments...it would scare away all the curious Republicans who otherwise would join that community.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I might contribute a bit
but I'll probably wait until the thing has got the wheels moving.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Yes

[ Parent ]
Good luck with that!

[ Parent ]
Congrats on landing an interview with someone so important so early on
I think that's a pretty big accomplishment for a new startup blog. Having an interview with Herman Cain should get you some attention pretty quickly. I'm extremely interested in seeing how RRH turns out.

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Thanks
I really wanted to get an interview with someone who was known, but I know Romney, Daniels (who I'd just LOVE to interview!), Pawlenty, etc would never do it, so we got Fred Karger and Cain, who I like as gay and black Republicans.  
[ Parent ]
Daniels is Pretty Accessible
If you can actually figure out the three people working on his bid.

I was best friends with Romney's next door neighbor in Belmont while he was governor, and there is basically a Berlin wall around him. One reason I suspect he gets such bad media coverage and why his campaign is going to have serious problems.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

[ Parent ]
I would not be able
To interview Daniels. I love that man, and I would probably spend all of his time just talking, and not asking what I need to.  
[ Parent ]
You should try to get these people, and do it NOW not later because...
...once they are running for President, they won't be accessible to you.  Pawlenty in particular I bet would be accessible now, when he's clearly running and yet doesn't have a committee set up to raise money or any field organization or other campaign infrastructure.  He needs to do everything he can to get his name recognition up, and he's a fool to say no to any righty blog wanting an interview.

Point is, this is the time to get 'em.  Once they're actually running hard, their schedules will be much more full.  And you get yourself a coup if one of 'em is the GOP nominee and you can say you got an early interview.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Congratulations
And may RRH have much success! I will surely surf over there and read.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Heh would be fun to see him try.


CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
Pan reported this yesterday....
An AZ GOP District Chairman is stepping down because he now fears for his life in the wake of the shootings.
http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpoi...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
I can get
that people like Palin feel unfairly maligned because people are linking the Arizona shootings to them when there's really no evidence that there was a connection. But why is it so out of line to suggest we look at what has been said so that we can avoid something like this in the future? Why is it so outrageous that we look at the people who are using the sort of language--not mere metaphors, but the words that are practically encouraging violence--even if these people are only on one side? And they are on one side. Name me one Republican Representative that has been threatened like some of the Democrats have been recently been threatened? It's possible I am unaware of something, but I doubt it. This insane false equivalency is really starting to piss me off. Both sides do have nuts, but only one side is allowing those nuts to become part of the mainstream.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
threats
I don't think the FBI publicizes particular threats to senators and reps, although they report overall numbers. I'd imagine that there have been threats to some Republican members.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
addendum
According to this story Paul Ryan and John Cornyn have gotten death threats.

http://www.politico.com/news/s...

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
I should have been
more specific: have any of them ever been burned in effigy, like Kratovil?  Have any of them had their offices vandalized, like Giffords? Have any of them ever had their sibling's house's gas line cut, like Perriello?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Wasn't Pelosi burned in effigy as well?


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Wasn't Cantor's office was shot up?
There are clearly threats on both sides but I would be amazed if it was anywhere close to 50-50. Still, I don't see how anybody could be against cooling it a little.
[ Parent ]
"shot up" overstates what happened
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-50...

It was just one bullet, and didn't even make it through the blinds....

[ Parent ]
Fair enough
Point still stands. I'm sure you agree.
[ Parent ]
No matter what the current circumstance
"cooling it" is to our benefit -- even (or perhaps especially) if only part of the other side "cools it".
[ Parent ]
And I recall it wasn't clear Cantor's office was a target, as...
...the building hosted other organizations, too.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Cantor's "Target"
While I don't know what Cantor knew or didn't know at the time his whole press conference about his office the whole thing he pulled in retrospect reeked of a stunt like Bill Frist's "diagnosis" of Terri Schiavo.

http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

Maybe Cantor really did think that someone tried to shoot at his office as he likely was relaying what someone else told him. Though looking back at what the evidence was it was clearly a pretty stuipd stunt aimed at pushing back some of the rhetoric. To be clear I am not blaming Cantor for any violence that happened but here his comments look especially bad. It turns out that it was a random gun fired in the air and that office of his was a random office building where his office happened to be there.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-50...


28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
Anybody else fear that Obama will be reelected without coattails?
I could see him running a very non-partisan campaign where voters dont see the difference between the parties and decide to elect even more Republicans downballot, causing Democrats to lose even more seats in the House and Senate and make up no ground in state legislatures(where Democrats are now in a very deep hole).  Does anyone else fear this scenario?
The
only way I see that happening is if he's reelected by the skin of his teeth. He certainly won't have coattails if he loses, but if he wins by a solid margin, and certainly if he wins by a huge margin, he should take at least a few people with him. For one thing, there just aren't that many more seats for the Republicans to take unless they have a year like the one they just had. I think that holds true even if the Democrats get screwed over in redistricting.

Things might be different for the state legislatures, but again, unless lines change drastically, how many more seats can they expect to gain? Once again, haven't they already picked a lot of the low hanging fruit?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
interesting
just registered, and first comment is concern trolling?

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
I'll give him the benefit of the doubt
I think Obama will have coattails, but probably not to the extent of the 2008 election.  Many of the new GOP members will most likely benefit from the improved economy, plus the creation of new congressional districts by many GOP legislatures will offset some of these coattails.  

The comment regarding Obama running a non-partisan race is not likely to happen.  Obama is a Democrat that will support Democratic candidates.  If the GOP tries to derail the Health Care legislation, Obama will most likely come out swinging hard during the 2012 elections.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
The thing is,
we don't need that many seats to take back the majority. Right now, it's 25. Let's assume that with all of the changes due to take place during redistricting, that number stays the same. (It won't, of course, but I won't try to guess how many seats the Democrats and Republicans screw each other out of.) Democrats obviously will want to target as many as possible. I believe Steve Israel said that they were looking at 61 districts as they currently stand, and even after redistricting, that's probably not too far off from what will happen. And while they probably won't win that many seats short of some epic meltdown on the part of the Republicans, if they win 30 or 35, that's pretty damn good.

But I'd like them to be as expansive as possible. It's hard to do this if the congressional districts change that much, but if they don't change that drastically, they should start by looking at any race where the Democrat received at least 30 percent in 2008 or 2010, and maybe even 2006 (The exception might be At Large districts.) Then, they should cross districts of the list only if there's just nobody there to turn out and/or register. At least by the first requirement, that would add six seats in Texas, eight or nine in Florida, and three in Georgia. (In those totals, seats that were thought to be competitive this year were included, but seats that were ours but lost were not.) Lots of other things would have to go right for the races to become competitive and resources would certainly need to be devoted, but as long as our candidates aren't fighting over a largely static group of voters, I don't want to pass anything up.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I understand why Israel was chosen.
Being a New Yorker, he can accrue tons of money.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Has anyone noticed
Dem campaign chairmen tend to be from the northeast, particularly NY, and Republicans are usually from Texas (RGA, NRCC, NRSC chair all from TX this year), probably the two biggest money states for their party's.
[ Parent ]
Yup
Menendez was drafted to be DSCC chair because they believed he could rake in all the wall street dough like Schumer did.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Oh joy.


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Good comment
I think that my Democratic party will do well in 2012.  My concern is that we will have a quasi-1996 election.  We will pick up seats, but not as many as we would normally win because the economy will be picking up steam (people will give the GOP some undue credit for this) and the overall negative effect of redistricting.  

Also, history isn't necessarily on our side...the last time we picked up as many as 25 seats on a Presidential Election is in 1964 with the landslide election of LBJ (we picked up 37 seats).  Of course, if the GOP nominates a certain someone from Alaska as Pres, we could pick up 50+ seats.  

But to add to your argument, I think that Obama will have coattails, and a big reason is his ability to raise money.  I feel that other Dems will be able to raise money at a higher clip as a result.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
I don't think redistricting is going to be that bad?
We have Illinois and Maryland. That could give us around 10 seats I believe (correct me please). California I'm not sure about, but I believe we should get some seats out of that process.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
You are right
I totally forgot about California.  We should pickup a half a dozen seats if we can draw up a good redistricting plan.  I don't know if Maryland will help us that much..we could possibly regain a seat.  I'm worried about my home state of NC...We could really be screwed and lose 2 or 3 of them since the GOP is in control.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
One thing from '96 that may not be repeated
is the loss of so many additional seats in the south -- the 9 lost in '96 masked what would have otherwise been a 20 seat gain that year.

We don't have that many seats left in the south to lose.

However, that depends on the results of redistricting in places like NC, TX, and FL.

[ Parent ]
Yep
I agree with what you have stated...1996 was much better once we peel back the onion.  We could still lose a few seats in the South (NC is my biggest concern...I'm a "homer" on this one), and TX and FL gives me some concerns.  We really don't have much else to lose in the South.  I've been fixated on the fact that several state legislations have flipped, so I'm glad to have my SSP family to reassure me that it won't be quite as bad.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
It all depends on how the Republican House acts.
If they try to shutdown government yeah they will get canned if they somehow grow the capacity to work with the president then both likely survive. Either way I see Obama pulling it out the question is whether he can do it with a democratic congress.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
If they are
in a position to win the presidency either strongly or better year in a landslide, why wouldn't they pull out all of the stops when it comes to downticket races?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Coattails hard to predict, compare 1984 to 2004 and you'll see...
... Reagan's landslide had no coattails, while Dubya's 51-48 squeaker actually did have some coattails and let his party expand their House and Senate majorities.

But one thing that will help us establish coattails is that we just had a wave election against our party, which will produce a modest snap-back effect.  Combine that with Obama's fantastic campaign organization and uniquely strong turnout model, a further modest increase in the nonwhite vote share, and possibly a poor GOP Presidential nominee, and you have the recipe for modest Democratic coattails.

The Obama campaign's direction will matter some.  I remember reading way back when in Richard Ben Cramer's What It Takes that Bob Dole was very pissed off at Reagan during the '84 campaign for declining to help downballot Republicans, instead insistent on running up the score in electoral votes for himself even after his reelection was assured.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Bob Dole...pissed off???
How could one tell?  Not talking about the era post-1996 (he showed that he was human), but he always seemed to be pissed off at someone or something.  The dude had trouble smiling, and when he did, it didn't look sincere.  Funny thing about it was that he was usually pissed off at someone within his own party (George H. W. Bush is the first one that came to mind).  Maybe he lost his edge when he became the spokesman for some sort of drug. :)

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
Reagan did have coattails...
The GOP won back 60% of the seats they lost (I think the number was 14 of the 25 seats lost) in congress.  If we were to win back 60% of the seats we lost, we'd have a comfortable majority in congress.

As for Dole, when the GOP bigwhigs realized that all was lost, they basically told Dole to concede the campaign and had him to campaign in swing congressional districts instead, which explains the lousy coattails that Clinton got.

Personally, I don't think that Obama will have much in the way of coattails, unless Palin or Gingrich is the nominee.  The increase in Obama voters will mostly occur in safe D districts, not so much in swing districts.  I doubt that Obama's plan to improve with independents will be very successful (this will still be a base election), and even if it is, it won't trickle down to the Dems who's brand is much more tarnished.

[ Parent ]
Yes
But for a different reason. Voters may see a improving economy as coinciding with the return of divided government. They may reward all incumbents.
[ Parent ]
I
agree with this. I think we will gain seats in Congress but not as many as we should.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Three wave cycles in a row
Some stability is probably due.
[ Parent ]
could be
I think this will happen to some extent, but I also think that Dems will benefit from more of their voters showing up in a presidential year. The younger vote always falls off more in a midterm election, and for the first time the parties are really polarized by age. We may be headed for an era where at least the House switches parties every 2 years, the Dems usually hold the presidency, and the Reeps have most of the governors who are elected in midterm years.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
So Democrats will lose even more seats?
Is that what you are saying?  
[ Parent ]
No
I'm saying status quo - Dems hold the White House and Senate, GOP hold the House.
[ Parent ]
Agree, I think GOP almost certainly keeps the House no matter what. The only way...
...we take it is if the House GOP completely mishandles things and pisses off the public even further.  But Boehner so far is acting very smart, refusing Steve King the immigration subcommittee Chair and handling the Tucson shootings with great restraint and solemnity.  And Congressional Republican leaders seem to realize they can't do a government shutdown or refuse to raise the debt limit ceiling, that they'll both hurt the country and get punished for that.

I think the debt limit ceiling will prove the teabaggers' next big disappointment.  The GOP will settle for little or nothing in exchange, really our side holds all the cards in that fight since it's something that just must be done and everyone knows it.

All this is to say Boehner is signaling, from what I can see, that he cares about avoiding pissing off swing voters more than pacifying teabaggers.  That's smart, and will make taking back the House almost impossible.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Its only the first week give it time.
The prez race is going to bring out the teabaggers in full force and the pressure will be on Bohener to act like an ass.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
He does
have a very difficult needle to thread. It will be difficult, but perhaps not impossible, to both keep the Teabaggers at bay and not piss off swing voters.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't
be so sure about that. If he's in the position where his reelection prospects look strong, I'd be astonished if the Obama campaign didn't make downticket races a top priority. If they only need 25 or so seats, and if he does well in the same areas he did in last time, you'd think they'd stand a good chance of taking back a decent number of seats, particularly if the Republican candidate not only loses but loses big.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Then when can Democrats win it back?
Will they have to wait until the first midterm of the next Republican President in 2018?
[ Parent ]
Doesn't have to be that long
Wild guess -- Ds gain 15-20 seats in '12, close to but short of a majority.

Rs overreached after Clinton was re-elected, and Ds made rare 6th year gains as a result. With the current makeup of the R party, a repeat in '14 is certainly at least conceivable.

Even if Rs regain the White House in '16, Ds will benefit from demographic trends, so it's certainly possible that Ds gain seats that year even without the coattails of a winning Presidential candidate.

[ Parent ]
True about 2014
The economy will also likely be quite good in 2014 before likely going back into recession in 2015 or 2016 based on previous economic trends, so that will be good for Democrats.  
[ Parent ]
True about 2014
The economy will also likely be quite good in 2014 before likely going back into recession in 2015 or 2016 based on previous economic trends, so that will be good for Democrats.  
[ Parent ]
True about 2014
The economy will also likely be quite good in 2014 before likely going back into recession in 2015 or 2016 based on previous economic trends, so that will be good for Democrats.  
[ Parent ]
Sorry about the triple post n/t

[ Parent ]
That's not how Obama rolls
The voters that he'll bring out are likely to vote straight D. I think that the reagan democrats that split ticket are gone. I don't think this is a concern at all.
[ Parent ]
If independents and moderates are simply voting Not R
because the GOP nominee is someone totally unappealing like Palin, then maybe voters would consider voting for Republicans down the ballot. I agree also that, after three cycles of climates trumping candidates, fewer seats will change hands in 2012 than have in recent elections.

NY-01/NY-19
[ Parent ]
Lose even more seats in the House?
No, that doesn't sound plausible. I mean, I guess stranger things have happened, but about the worst I could see in the event of an Obama reelection is a few Republican gains in the Senate and a few Democratic gains in the House. It's certainly possible that the Republicans could maintain a majority in the House. But let's wait until much closer to 2012 to see how things are shaping up.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
John Boehner endorses Maria Cino for RNC Chairman
He may sense
The same momentum I feel behind her bid. Maybe he is trying to help her capitalize on that.  
[ Parent ]
I
bet Brown would love a primary. It would really help him in the GE and I don't think he could lose. Mass isn't Delaware.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Delaware wasn't Alaska either
But more than likely you are right.
[ Parent ]
Brown isn't Castle or Murkowksi
He always fights for his seat.  
[ Parent ]
Castle fought hard, it didn't matter......
Murkowski was caught sleeping, but Castle wasn't.

Delaware Republicans simply insisted on voting ideologically, all else be damned.

But it's also true that for every dramatic primary upset, there were a couple establishment choices who won their primaries against teabaggers.

Still, 2010 primaries produced enough shockers that we can't say quite yet the teabaggers won't be able to assert themselves yet again.  I commented above about Boehner signaling he's going to play ball with Obama and Senate Democrats to get the few essential things done, and that has potential to fuel the teabaggers' fire yet again.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I'm still floored O'Donnell actually pulled that off
Delaware's a state where, typically, only about half of the GOP electorate is self-described "conservative." I suppose a bunch of Tea Partiers who'd never participated before decided to jump in for the first time for O'Donnell.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Castle fought hard
The last 3 weeks. If he had known he was in trouble before, he wouldn't have lost a primary with nearly $2 million still in the bank.  
[ Parent ]
Watching
 Obama at memorial. Says Giffords opened her eyes for the first time. Great news.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
I'm in tears right now, watching the President, n/t

[ Parent ]
Yes
It's very good. I have to admit Brewer was great as well and she's usually not the best public speaker.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
She's been very good lately
IDK if she met with speech coaches after her debate or what, but, watching her speak many times since Saturday, she has improved big time.  
[ Parent ]
Must
be a GREAT coach.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I think this is a point
where Republicans and Democrats are coming together for a common cause. Finally, after all of this time. I thought she did a very good job and I saw her in a different light, which is a nice change. It doesn't completely change what she has done, but it's still a nice moment.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Absolutely.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I
was watching a part of the house tributes this morning and I watched some GOP congressman talk about the husband who gave his life shielding his wife from the gunman's bullets. He talked about how the husband was a weekly church goer and mentioned some scripture from the bible about how you should protect your wife. I'm not a very religious person, far from it, but the congressman's words really touched my heart.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Amazinng
It is amazing how fast she is recovering. She was able to feel her wounds with her hands for the first time today too. This is nothing short of a miracle. I'm staring to think Mark Kelly was right when he told Kirsten Gillibrand that he thinks Gabby will be walking in two weeks.  
[ Parent ]
Where
did you read that?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Here
http://www.newsday.com/news/na...
Kelly said that, not the doctors.  
[ Parent ]
Wow
This is amazing!

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Yes,
very much so. Heck Giffords still be alive is amazing.  I look very much forward to being amazed many more times with Giffords recovery.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Someone referenced
that movie "Unbreakable."  That certainly does come to mind.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
heh
That was me. I don't know what Giffords is made of. I read that the survival rate for bullet wounds to the brain is just 9%, and I'd imagine it's lower for point-blank shots. Konck on wood that she keeps recovering.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
What amazes me...
Is the fact that she has apparently been able to comprehend and (non-verbally) respond to people in the room. And she clearly understands and recalls her relationships, as evidenced by her trying to embrace her husband and caressing his wedding ring, as well as her opening her eye for the first time when she heard her friends and colleagues talking to her.

I'm hardly a neuroscientist, but it seems amazing and improbable to me that a woman shot through the forehead on Saturday is able to purposefully move both arms, open (and focus) her uncovered eye, breathe on her own power, and recognize people by Wednesday. Saturday evening, I was thinking it'd be a week or more before we even heard news of her waking up from her induced coma.

The big test is going to be speech, although the fact that she's apparently able to process others' speech and respond to instructions as complex as "touch my wedding ring" really encourages me.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
speech
I have no background either. I read that the left side of the brain controls speech so she may have more problems there than with motor control or mental capacity. It sounds like her hearing is fine, and if she can think and type she'd be able to return to her job even if she can't talk.  

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
James Brady is what comes to my mind......
Reagan's Press Secretary, took a bullet in the head from Hinckley as Reagan took one in the lung.  It was just as big a miracle back then as now, perhaps bigger back then because at least now those of us who are old enough remember the Brady recovery as a precedent, while there was no precedent, at least not one anyone mentioned, back then.

Brady and his wife became Democrats and the faces of gun control advocacy as a direct and indirect result of his shooting.  A friend of mine who once knew Sarah Brady told me Sarah told her she became a Democrat not because of gun control itself, but because she saw the massive medical bills afterward that she and James could afford to pay, and she realized that most people would be sunk when faced with that.

I do hope Giffords' recovery proves even better than Brady's, so that she's able to continue serving.  But I have to think the odds of her returning to Congress actively are still up in the air as of now.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
The saddest and surprisingly most uplifting part of the memorial service
was when President Obama talked about Christina. I wanted to cry and smile. I felt like I was a kid again and had that same optimism. That we could be capable of doing exactly what Christina dreamed of.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
I can't listen to or read things about her
It just totally breaks my heart and I start just crying my eyes out. It is so terrible.  
[ Parent ]
It's one of the things that made me most emotional.
I was exactly like her at that age. I remember being in her shoes. The hope and the promise to do so much.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
I
was crying and I don't cry often. Probably Obama's second best speech. A close second.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Any idea
of where I might find a transcript or a video of it? I never watch these things, so if it's as good as people are saying, I'd like to see for myself.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Pieces
off the speech are on ABC News, but I'm sure the White House will upload the speech in its entirety soon.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Here's the transcript.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-...

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
didn't hear it live
Here is my favorite paragraph from the transcript.

"For the truth is none of us can know exactly what triggered this vicious attack.  None of us can know with any certainty what might have stopped these shots from being fired, or what thoughts lurked in the inner recesses of a violent man's mind.  Yes, we have to examine all the facts behind this tragedy.  We cannot and will not be passive in the face of such violence.  We should be willing to challenge old assumptions in order to lessen the prospects of such violence in the future.  But what we cannot do is use this tragedy as one more occasion to turn on each other."  

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
right-wing praise of President Obama
from http://twitter.com/moelane

MoeLane: #rsrh A good speech by the President. http://is.gd/YeifRj

The President did well, and the two Scripture readings by Napolitano and Holder were well chosen.

JonahNRO An excellent speech. First one since 2004 DNC speech that was truly presidential.

Prediction: Presidential approval will go over 60% by next week, and will stay that way for at least a bit after the State of the Union.
They will soar
It was a great speech.  
[ Parent ]
I doubt it

[ Parent ]
Not like 60+
I mean mid-upper 50's.  
[ Parent ]
We shall see
Wouldn't surprise me to see no change at all.
[ Parent ]
Meh…
That may be a bit much but I do think they'll up a bit. Maybe the 55 range, which is still good.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
If he can get back over 50
And stay there is all I dare hope for.
[ Parent ]
obama approvals are already going up
http://www.politico.com/news/s...

i think that with this speech obama can stay at a mid 50 level

[ Parent ]
You
Got to understand that most people dont watch these speeches, so it's unlikely to make a significant difference

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
[ Parent ]
They don't watch these speeches, but they do see
the media narrative about these speeches. It's a given that it will be an extremely positive narrative. Local news, national news, and cable news will play clips from the speech constantly for the next few days and the clips will be online. It will have an effect, but how large? No clue.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
More people are likely to watch this speech than most speeches. They're not all the same.
People do get bored of a President's speeches, and the audience dwindles over time, but they tune back in for certain speeches for certain reasons, a tragedy being one of them.

Tonight's speech should have fared well in audience size since everyone knew going in this isn't a political event, and it's something that touches the hearts of millions who don't care about politics.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I've been wrong before
But what you say is the key to my gut feel about this -

People nationwide are feeling grief, it wasn't a political event, and nobody who spoke made it into one. (aka, nobody made the mistakes from Wellstone's funeral.)

While I understand the cheering, I gather that turned off more than a few -- BUT the President looked somber throughout the cheering.

sample of one -- my wife hates political speeches, but was glued to the radio for her commute -- and then the TV as soon as she got home for this one.

Again, while I've been wrong before, I retain my prediction that President Obama's approval will break 60 by next week, in time to be sustained by the State of the Union speech on Jan 25 -- especially if Mark Udall's proposal for everyone to sit together gains traction, ref http://voices.washingtonpost.c...  

[ Parent ]
Yeah, the only thing that was "off" was the cheering
I thought Obama did a wonderful job paying tribute to the deceased and the heroes and also addressing the national reaction to the shooting, but the applause did seem a little out of place for a memorial service. He certainly wasn't encouraging it though, and it didn't look like it was bothering Giffords' husband or any other family members of victims. So it really wasn't that big of a deal.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
i agree
I even think respectful applause would have been okay.  But the whistling and whooping, especially when he came to the podium, was a little over the top for me.  I actually had to turn it off for a little while.
[ Parent ]
They were cheering for speakers BEFORE Obama, too......
I turned the TV on to CNN just after 8:30, and was surpised Obama was on as early as 8:45.  Before him, Holder spoke, and when I turned it on someone I didn't catch was drawing cheering after leaving the mic.  They cheered for that person, then for Holder, and well before Obama was introduced I was struck by how odd it seemed for a memorial service.  But I've been to funerals and memorials where people told stories and the audience laughed, and I thought this is an unusual situation whose audience reaction can't necessarily be pigeonholed.

So it wasn't about Obama, it was about the crowd.  John King of CNN opined that the crowd needed to cheer, that they've been mourning and crying and in shock all these days, and they needed to celebrate something, whether it was the victims' lives or lessons to be learned or whatnot, and they took this as their chance.

Grieving isn't a formula, everyone, and every community, has their own way.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Conservatives on Twitter where pissed off by the energy of the
memorial service. I saw a Twitter post from Kathleen Parker making fun of the Native American speaker at the beginning. It was absolutely offensive. Speaking as someone with NA ancestry (and no I'm not Cherokee). Then she complained about the cheering.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Go look at RedState.
The comments don't seem all that bad.

Personally, I thought Obama was great.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

Oh, look at some other sites, there are plenty of complaints......
The free t-shirts are a target.  Seriously.

And "Conservatives 4 Palin" snarked about the speech as if it was universally panned.

So there are outliers out there.

But the rule is if even half of Republicans are saying nice things about it, then Obama hit it out of the ballpark.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Adios, Onorato.
  He lost his home of Allegheny county to Governor Corbett. Yes, that would be the county that has Pittsburgh!

24, Male, GA-05
Epic
fail right there.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Don't forget
Corbett's from Allegheny Co. too (Shaler Twp, I think), so they were both from the same turf.
[ Parent ]
Kay Bailey Hutchison won't seek re-election
Hello, Sen. Michael Williams.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
Great News
Kay Bay is a royal pain in the ass, If I was a TX voter I would have voted absentee for her just to get her out of DC.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
Gabby Giffords
Not sure if this was mentioned, but here's an amazing interview with Kirsten Gillibrand and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz regarding Gabby Giffords.

It's the second interview down after Gibbs'.

I literally was tearing up reading it.  This woman is a tank...she's incredible.

http://thepage.time.com/2011/0...

Male, 23, NJ-12

SSP Daily Digest: 1/12 | 223 comments

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