SSP Daily Digest: 1/11

• ME-Sen: The attempt to primary out Olympia Snowe by the state’s various fractious Tea Party factions seems to be sputtering, partly for lack of a credible challenger to rally around (with Some Dude Scott D’Ambroise the only one officially in the race right now) but also as the various Judean People’s Front and People’s Front of Judea wings of the ‘baggers start to increasingly turn their fire on each other rather than on Democrats and alleged RINOs.

• MI-Sen: Joining a major law firm after an electoral loss isn’t, in itself, dispositive of future political runs a few years down the line. But observers are taking the decision by former AG Mike Cox (who lost last year’s GOP gubernatorial primary) to join a Detroit law firm as an indicator that he isn’t considering the 2012 Senate race.

• MO-Sen: There are increasing signals that Jim Talent may not run for Senate in 2012, after all. Dave Catanese talks to various Show Me State insiders who say that Talent hasn’t been doing the behind-the-scenes reaching-out that one usually does at this point, and they point to him not only having got caught off guard by Sarah Steelman’s abrupt early entry into the primary but also his close relationship with Mitt Romney. Talent is currently traveling with Romney in an advisory role in Afghanistan, and there’s speculation his 2012 plans may involve hitching his wagon to Romney in the hopes that he’s the next President and that a Cabinet role (SecDef?) may be in the offing.

• OH-Sen: With Mike DeWine having passed on a rematch against Sherrod Brown, the speculation has turned to newly-elected Lt. Gov. and former Auditor Mary Taylor. It sounds like she’s game; local insiders are saying she’s at “90%” in terms of likelihood of running. She may not have the field to herself even if she does, though; another newly-elected statewide GOPer, 33-year-old state Treasurer Josh Mandel has been impressing the local GOP in his first week on the job and is starting to attract some buzz for a quick promotion.

• WY-Sen: Wyoming promises to be the least dramatic state in the 2012 election, so PPP’s decision to poll here this early seems a little odd. At any rate, they find Wyomingites love their politicians: outgoing Dem Gov. Dave Freudenthal gets a 71/18 approval, making him the nation’s most popular governor, while the state’s two GOP Senators, John Barrasso (69/25) and Mike Enzi (63/24) are the nation’s two most popular Senators. Despite his popularity (and, well, despite the fact that he’s never expressed any interest in running for federal office), Freudenthal loses a hypothetical 2012 matchup against Barrasso, 56-36, thanks to the GOP’s huge registration advantage here.

• RI-Gov: There’s already one Dem reportedly gearing up for the 2014 Governor’s race: state Treasurer Gina Raimondo, who’s build a war chest and getting friendly with DC consultants. (Alternatively, she could also be running for Senate in 2014 instead, if Jack Reed isn’t running again.) No mention of whether she’d be challenging new indie Gov. Lincoln Chafee (last seen more or less declaring war on local talk radio) from the left or the right (as Frank Caprio tried to do, and failed).

• FL-14: With Rep. Connie Mack IV looking like one of the House’s likeliest retirements right now (in order to pursue a Senate bid against Bill Nelson), speculation has already begun about who’ll fill his seat. One thing is pretty predictable, given the Fort Myers-area district’s R+11 bent and lack of any Dem tradition or bench: it’ll be a Republican. GOP names to watch include ex-state Rep. Dudley Goodlette and Lee Co. Commissioner Ray Judah. The most prominent name, though, may be former Lt. Gov. Jeff Kottkamp (though he might have trouble getting out of a GOP primary unless he can find a way to wash the stank of the Charlie Crist administration off his suit). State Sen. Garrett Richter (whose district closely overlaps the 14th) says no thanks to the race.

• HI-01: GOP ex-Rep. Charles Djou, seeming a bit testy after the abrupt end to his very short tenure in the House, seems to have thrown all that feel-good ohana crap out the window in his exit press conference, blaming Dem successor Colleen Hanabusa in advance for expected future failures. He may feel free to speak his mind as he also says he has “no plans to run for any political office ever again.”

• NM-01: Rep. Martin Heinrich has already drawn some seemingly-credible Republican opposition for 2012, although he has the kind of district that seems much safer for a Dem in a presidential year than last year’s narrow win. Republican Albuquerque city councilor Dan Lewis has formed an exploratory committee.

• State legislatures: Two state House speaker elections are in the news today. The big one may be in Texas, where an expected coup from the right against GOP speaker Joe Straus didn’t ever seem to materialize. He got the support of 70 of 100 GOP House members in a pre-vote caucus, and then was easily elected to another term by the whole House. Meanwhile, in Oregon, an unusual power-sharing arrangement was cobbled together with a surprising degree of civility and equanimity, as the parties figure out how to grapple with a never-before 30-30 tie. GOPer Bruce Hanna and Dem Arnie Roblan will be co-speakers, handing the gavel to each other on alternating days.

• Special elections: Two southern states have special elections scheduled today, although there should be very little drama in any of the elections, as these are Republican-leaning districts replacing promoted Republican legislators in lightly-contested races (and icy conditions should reduce turnout to microscopic levels). In Mississippi, the races are to replace Alan Nunnelee in SD-6 and Steven Palazzo in HD-116. (With a recent party switch by state Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, the GOP is poised to tie the state Senate with today’s election.) In Virginia, the races are to replace Robert Hurt in SD-19 and Morgan Griffith in HD-8.

• Primaries: In a nice bit of symmetry, two states are going in very different directions with their primary election rules. In Idaho, where the GOP seems fearful of meddling in its primaries by the state’s Democrat (I think his name is Jerry), the state GOP is pushing to change from open primaries to closed primaries. Meanwhile, in Louisiana, after a period of closed primaries for federal-level offices (which was extremely confusing, since they kept using open primaries for state offices), they’re expecting federal approval of a switch back to all open primaries this month. The state legislature has already approved it, but as a VRA state, they’re waiting for DOJ preclearance.

• Redistricting: Finally, here’s some redistricting news. Bob McDonnell has thrown a bone to fans of redistricting reform with the creation of a new redistricting commission with 11 members. It’s not a very interesting bone, though, since the commission’s role is purely advisory and the commission doesn’t even have a budget. Meanwhile, the Hill looks at what might happen to the House districts in New Jersey, a state where the hard work is actually done by commission (which has traditionally focused on incumbent protection, but has to eliminate one seat this year). For now, everyone is waiting for more complete Census figures to see if the population stagnation was more concentrated in the state’s north (which would probably hit the Dems) or the state’s middle (which would hit the GOP).

186 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 1/11”

  2. Kos has brought back the State of the Nation poll, this time done by PPP. Very happy about this – always enjoyed the old state of nation poll – it was probably the biggest disappointment of the R2K scandal for bringing it back.

    The first results aren’t too good, but I firmly believe it will get better. (and actually the approval/disapproval ratings for Dems are pretty close to the mark)

    Anyway, don’t know if he ever reads SSP, but thanks to Kos for bringing it back (I’m sure DavidNYC can pass on my good wishes if he doesn’t).

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/…

  3. Sure, Arnie Roblan (the Democratic half of the co-Speaker of the House power-sharing arrangement) may have ended his first speech of the new session with “may the Force be with all of us”, but that’s forgivable.

  5. is all the more interesting because it will probably be two open seats in 2012 rather than one. Does anyone know how much pull the potential candidates have with the legislature? There is considerable leeway to create two tailor-made seats for whoever the legislature favors.

  6. “In Idaho, where the GOP seems fearful of meddling in its primaries by the state’s Democrat (I think his name is Jerry)…”

    His name is Walt. Come on, the election wasn’t that long ago.

  7. That seems a weird fit, even if he did represent one of the Boening states. Given what he was most active on in Congress I’d think he’d be more interested in CoS, AG, or an economic job (or, of course, Veep). Have to think him skipping the race (should that happen) is helpful to the Democrats.

  8. any chance that Freudenthal would challenge Cynthia Loomis, Wyoming’s Representative? If so, would he be any more successful in this race than if he were to challenge Barrasso?

    OH-Sen: Is there any chance of these guys beating the crap out of each other in a primary? And does either Taylor or Mandel have any sort of geographic advantage like Brown supposedly has?

    HI-01: This would amusing if it weren’t so pathetic. Which party is likely to be a stick in the mud when it comes to infrastructure investment? Here’s a hint: it’s not the one Hanabusa belongs to.  

  10. Crist running  for Governor on the Dem side in 2014. I think thats likely to play out anyone else from Florida think its possible? I know hes joining a law firm but honestly M&M might be one of the few law firms that has a good reputation in central FLA. I don’t think its a negative and also it’s 4 years out so he could leave after 2 years or so.  

  12. The presumptive front-runner for the DFL nod in MN-08, Tony Sertich, looks like he won’t be running.

    http://www.minnesotabrown.com/…

    St. Paul- Governor Mark Dayton today announced the appointment of Representative Tony Sertich as Commissioner of the Iron Range Resources and Rehabilitation Board (IRRRB). Sertich, who hails from Chisholm, will lead the Board in its important mission to diversify the economy of the Iron Range. Representative Sertich was the youngest Majority Leader in Minnesota’s history.  A fourth generation Iron Ranger, Sertich is a member of both the Hibbing and Chisholm Chambers of Commerce, and was previously the Business Manager for Longyear, Inc.

    I doubt he would have taken the IRRRB job if he planned to run for Congress. The State House is a much easier place from which to run.

    One person who is interested in a run is Al Franken staffer Daniel Fanning.

    http://www.minnpost.com/maryla…

    Democrats I’ve spoken with are interested in Sen. Al Franken staffer Daniel Fanning.  The Iraqi War veteran attended Gov. Dayton’s inaugural ball this weekend and told me he is considering a run against Congressman Chip Cravaack.

  13. Representative Sertich will resign his House Seat on Thursday, January 13th. Governor Dayton will call a special election, as statute requires, and the special primary will occur on February 1st and the special election will be held on February 15th.

    This should be safe Dem territory but weird things can happen in special elections.

  14. ME-Sen: Any tea-bagger will do, as Christine O’Donnell and Sharon Angle have shown.

    OH-Sen: Go to Mandel’s Wiki page and try to tell me he doesnt look like a wax figure in that picture.

  16. Had he any real interest in nonpartisan or bipartisan redistricting, he could have said or done something about it last year. Now that it’s too late to actually change the system, he creates a sham commission that won’t have any effect on the final result.

  18. Surprise….. GOP holds both, senate seat outright, house seat will be a runoff between two GOPers. So senate is a tie, with Lt. Gov. it’s a majority. First time since…

  20. there seems to be some dangerous infighting in the Arizona Republican Party.

    Gabrielle Giffords’ Arizona shooting prompts resignations

    A nasty battle between factions of Legislative District 20 Republicans and fears that it could turn violent in the wake of what happened in Tucson on Saturday prompted District Chairman Anthony Miller and several others to resign.

    Miller, a 43-year-old Ahwatukee Foothills resident and former campaign worker for U.S. Sen. John McCain, was re-elected to a second one-year term last month. He said constant verbal attacks after that election and Internet blog posts by some local members with Tea Party ties made him worry about his family’s safety.

    In an e-mail sent a few hours after Saturday’s massacre in Tucson that killed six and injured 13, including U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, Miller told state Republican Party Chairman Randy Pullen he was quitting: “Today my wife of 20 yrs ask (sic) me do I think that my PCs (Precinct Committee members) will shoot at our home? So with this being said I am stepping down from LD20GOP Chairman…I will make a full statement on Monday.”[…]

    Hat tip to Kristina40’s diary at DailyKos for informing me about this ugliness.

    To what extent is this violence and intimidation right now localized in Arizona, and to what extent is it a national problem? How badly will our politics get distorted by a minority of angry people who engage in violent acts or threats in order to try to win what they couldn’t win by a majority vote at the ballot box?

  21. Mike Cox was through the minute Geoffrey Fieger revealed Cox’s extra-marital affair.  And if that didn’t do it, ties (never proven, to be clear) to disgraced Detroit Mayor Kwame Kipatrick finished off whatever chance he ever had of being elected state-wide again for any office, thank god.  

    He truly is one of the most slimey, shaddy politicians in the state, and his slimey tactics in the gubernatorial race — which netted him an embarrassing third place after being a major front-runner for the nomination — only reinforced that.

  25. We usually figure Wisconsin will have higher turnout among Democratic-friendly demographics because the state allows same-day registration (potentially meaning the polls underestimate the amount of Dem support?).  That very well could change.  In addition to requiring photo ID at the polls (and, now, locking it into the Wisconsin constitution to prevent Dem from undoing the move), Republicans are starting to plan to end same-day registration:

    Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald (R-Juneau), an avid supporter of the photo ID requirement, said lawmakers are debating whether to move quickly on photo ID or wait to develop a larger elections package that could include eliminating election day registration.

    Wisconsin is one of a few states that allow voters to register at the polls, which observers credit with boosting voter turnout.

    Momentum is building among Republicans to eliminate the practice. Leibham said he supports getting rid of the practice and Stone said he is open to the idea.

    “Voting’s a right, but there’s also a responsibility to voting,” Leibham said.

    http://www.jsonline.com/news/s…

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