Public Policy Polling (1/3-5, “usual Nevada primary” voters, 10/7-9/10 in parentheses):
Dean Heller (R): 52 (37)
John Ensign (R-inc): 34 (45)
Undecided: 13 (18)Dean Heller (R): 30
John Ensign (R-inc): 20
Sue Lowden (R): 12
Danny Tarkanian (R): 10
Sharron Angle (R): 9
Brian Krolicki (R): 6
John Chachas (R): 5
Someone else/Undecided: 8
(MoE: ±4.9%)
This is a pretty dramatic turnaround from the last time that PPP looked at the 2012 Republican Senate primary (which was released right after the November election, although I just noticed that the sample was taken before it). While the old poll had John Ensign looking surprisingly strong, this seems more in line with the conventional wisdom: that Ensign is toast, at least when matched up with GOP Rep. (and former SoS) Dean Heller. Ensign loses either as a two-way race or in a jungle-type configuration that throws in every possible GOPer. (Also noteworthy in the latter: Sharron Angle polls all of 9%, suggesting some serious buyer’s remorse over having nominated her last year.)
I’m really not sure what (other than a very different sample composition) might have caused the sudden drop in Ensign’s fortunes, since nothing has really happened to him in the last few months, but at any rate, he had a 64/23 approval (remember, among Republicans only) in October and now that’s down to 53/30. Contrast that with Heller, who was at 56/8 in October and now is up to 63/12, suggesting he’s getting better known without his negatives going up much, maybe consistent with people starting to pay more attention to the race and casting about for alternatives to the ethically-plagued Ensign. Given these numbers on top of Ensign’s dried-up fundraising, it may truly be a short matter of time (as insiders expect) before Ensign announces he isn’t running again.
As for a Democratic opponent, it’ll be a while till we have a clear sense of that. Rep. Shelley Berkley has just announced that she’s pushing back her timetable on making a decision about the race, to somewhere around “late spring or early summer.” I’ve gotta wonder if she’s waiting to see whether Ensign bails and Heller gets in without serious other GOP opposition, which might make the race much less appetizing to Berkley.
If I had to hazard a guess I’d say Heller only runs if Ensign decides to run for re-election. At that point he’d basically be forced into a primary challenge (and almost certain primary win and less certain but still likely general election victory).
However, if Ensign does retire I’d bet Heller stays in the house and LG Brian Krolicki runs instead. I’ve heard they are close, but mostly this makes sense based on Heller status in the House majority & Krolicki’s need to make another statewide run to prove he’s still a rising power in the state.
As for Berkeley, if she believes the Dems are likely to regain the majority soon she may prefer playing the seniority game in the house vs risking a safe seat for what might be an uphill battle statewide, even in a Presidential year.
AZ changed a lot of things. People are going to need time to process and see if business changes. The House may be a very different place. No one is going to want to hear of anyone announcing plans to run for Senate/Governor/House for a few months. We all need some time off to reconsider our priorities.
If Democrats don’t make a serious effort (Reid) then what is the point. Even if Heller runs, I don’t see Reid sitting back and risking his Majority leader status.
to reprioritize and reconsider their careers, I think, in Berkley’s case, stalling is to be expected. She really needs a clearer idea of what kind of opponent she’ll be facing before she enters. If it’s a disgraced senator who’s refused to resign for over a year, then she could waltz into the Senate. If it’s a beloved conservative who has already represented Nevada statewide, it will be a difficult battle that she may lose, forcing her to give up House seniority and a safe seat. And then, of course, it could be any of the other potential, lesser-known candidates. Lowden, despite her idiocy, seems to be trying for a political comeback. I recall a hypothetical poll from slightly before the election that had Reid squaring off against Tarkanian (the only GOP candidate who did not end the year in embarrassment) and he was vastly outperforming Angle. I assume Krolicki could also make the race more competitive than Ensign, but he’s probably not as strong a candidate as some of the other prospective names. And then, of course, there’s Angle. If the Republicans choose to bless us with her again, Berkley will set the land speed record for registering a campaign with the FEC.