The main questions I think are involved here are:
1) Will the fair districts law hold up in court?
2) Will Corrine Brown get a district that goes Jacksonville to Orlando, or will it go to Tallahassee?
3) How many “compact” Orlando seats are drawn, and how many go into rural areas?
I’m assuming (or at least hoping) that we will see some less gerrymandered lines. It might be interesting to see what the best case GOP map is, though. I don’t think 21-6 could work, 20-7 may have to be uglier than what we have now.
I’m not sure of the politics of some of these seats, but my take is that the Democrats gain one seat in the Orlando area, have better chances at two seats in the Tampa area (Bill Young and Vern Buchanan both lose some blatant gerrymanders), and probably pick up Allen West’s seat. David Rivera is almost certainly gone in 2012 as well, though that might be a primary.
VRA – 3 plurality black seats, CD3 at 47B, CD17 at 47B, CD23 at 39B. I’m not sure you can do much better with nice lines; there just aren’t enough blacks in Broward county to make Hastings’ seat more than plurality black. Kathy Castor’s CD11 is at 46W, as is CD8 in Orlando. The 3 Hispanic R Miami seats are all at least 65H.
Per-district analysis below the fold.
CD1 (blue, 76W 14B) – Still in the panhandle, contracts somewhat. Very little that can be done to this district. Scarborough Country is still safe for Jeff Miller (R).
CD2 (green, 79W 13B) – Loses parts of Tallahassee to CD3. Stretches across the northern part of the state all the way to Jacksonville. With the black portion of the district decreased by 9%, Steve Southerland (R) should be safe in this already conservative district.
CD3 (purple, 47B 44W) – The previous district was 49% black. I hope this is good enough for the VRA. This district seems more compact than the previous monstrosity, and taking Democrats from a city (Tallahassee) represented by Republicans right now is better for them. As noted in the opening, Corrine Brown (D) is safe here.
CD4 (red, 77W 11B) – Still wraps around Jacksonville, but gets the rest of its population from the south side rather than going along the north border to Tallahassee. Ander Crenshaw (R) should still be safe.
CD5 (yellow, 82W 9H) – Mostly the same on the Gulf coast, loses a part of Lake County. Should be fine for Richard Nugent (R)
CD6 (teal, 72W 15B) – More significant changes here. Loses the Jacksonville area completely, and gets the entirety of the Gainsville and Ocala areas, previously gerrymandered into other districts, as well as Putnam County. I don’t know how this district would turn out, but I expect it’s less safe for Cliff Stearns (R) than before.
CD7 (gray, 75W 12B 10H) – Pulls out further from the Orlando area, but gaining the towns of Sanford and Deland that were pushed into CD3 before. Still includes Daytona and a bunch of the Atlantic coast. I assume it is safe for John L. Mica (R) still.
Orlando
CD26 (gray-ish square looking district, 63W 18B 14H) – Another new district in the Orlando area. I really have no idea how this would turn out. As noted below, Daniel Webster would probably run here.
CD8 (light purple, 46W 31H 17B) – My guess is Daniel Webster (R) will look for a different district to run in. This become majority-minority and collapses to Orlando and suburbs. It has been suggested that making this be more Hispanic, the other districts would be safer R.
CD24 (dark purple, 75W 14H) – Very similar, trades some Orlando suburbs around. I expect this to remain a swing district for Sandy Adams (R).
Tampa:
CD9 (bright blue, 82W 10H) – As many of these other districts have done, loses some outlying areas, and picks up a few precincts gerrymandered out before. Guessing it’s safe for Gus Bilirakis (R).
CD10 (pinkish-red, 76W 12B) – Generally shrinks but gains Democratic areas gerrymandered out before. Basically everything from Clearwater to St. Petersburg now. Bill Young (R) won’t be happy, but I see no way the plan can do anything else with the new rules.
CD11 (green, 46W 26H 22B) – No longer gets minority or liberal areas from St. Petersburg or Bradenton. Still should be safe D for Kathy Castor.
CD12 (cornflower blue, 70W 16H 11B) – Generally moves in towards Tampa, losing much of Polk County and gaining areas shed by other districts. I don’t know how safe this is for Dennis Ross (R), but it shouldn’t be too bad.
CD13 (peach, 81W 10H) – Loses rural Hardee and Desoto counties, gains the liberal parts of Bradenton back from a gerrymander. I assume Vern Buchanan (R) would have lost this district in 2006, and it’s probably a swing district in 2012 for him.
CD27 (aquamarine, 73W 15H) – The other new district appears in central Florida. It stretches from Kissimmee in the north to the entirety of Port Charlotte and part of Fort Myers. Once again, I’m not sure how this would fall politically.
CD14 (olive, 76W 15H) – Fort Myers/Naples based still, loses a lot of area and gains none. Connie Mack IV (R) is probably as safe as before.
CD15 (turquoise, 73W 15H) – Same story, shrinks slightly. Bill Posey (R) is probably safe, though I’ve never heard of him.
Southeast Florida
CD16 (ugly green, 65W 18H 14B) – covers Fort Pierce to Jupiter on the coast, as well as Lake Okeechobee and a lot of the Everglades. Tom Rooney (R) is in the district.
CD22 (dark maroon, 57W 22H 18B) – a compact Palm Beach district. Allen West (R) almost certainly is in trouble with anything not gerrymandered.
CD19 (khaki, 70W 15H 11B) covers Boynton beach to Boca Raton, and then goes inland to pickup areas west of Fort Lauderdale. Ted Deutch (D) presumably is still safe.
CD23 (sky blue, 39B 39W) – Deerfield Beach to Fort Lauderdale. Plurality black; it can pretty easily be made 42B 36W with a tendril to Hollywood, but I don’t think it can do much better without a very thin line to Palm Beach. Alcee Hastings (D) might not like it, but I don’t care.
CD20 (pink, 54W 28H 14B) – Coastal areas in Broward county, mostly. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) should be safe.
CD17 (dark blue, 47B 30H 20W) – North Miami. Frederica Wilson (D) should be fine.
CD21 (dark red, 76H 16W 6B) – Hialeah, other Miami suburbs to the west. Mario Diaz Balart (R) is probably as safe as before.
CD18 (yellow, 65H 27W) – Miami and the Keys. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) is probably fine here.
CD25 (pink, 68H 20W 9B) – more of the everglades, picking up population from Miami as well as Naples/Fort Myers. David Rivera (R) is probably in trouble more because he’s a corrupt idiot than because of changes in the district.
and I think its a great start.
I mentioned the idea of going college town with FL3 on last thread and I really like that move.
I think all those districts are VRA compliant–the % is the white % IMO. You will have a good bit of side by side hispanic voters with AA in those districts.
In CD17 the big last year was among Haiti & more native AA’s. Two Haiti candidates split the vote and let Wilson win the D primary.
I defer to others here and ask whether other then the VRA seats if we need to see a map without any extra crossed lines?
I am clueless on this matter.
The amendment is not clear on what compactness means and what limits there are on crossing political lines.
I might add that a town can be on the edge of a county and have more contact with the county south of it as opposed to the North end of the same county. So I am sure what this amendment calls for in lines?
i do think stearns is plenty safe, and buchanan isn’t vulnerable unless obama’s winning in a landslide (e.g. wave election).
west is gone.
young’s probably safe until retirement, in which case we will probably take the seat over.
only disagreements are that I think the 18th is vulnerable if Ros-Lehtinen retires and I think both Rivera and Diaz-Balart would be in trouble if the dems produce credible candidates.
for control of the house in 2012. anywhere from 5-10 seats could be picked off in those 2 states alone.
The amendments passed discourage that unless it’s necessary.
Congressman Bilirakis is truly one of the best people in Washington in terms of both personal integrity and working with both parties efficiently… how safe would he be in this map?
I like to see a Florida Map, I do think that its abit hard to do a Democratic map of Florida as its hard to get an accurate reading on the partisanship of some areas. I really like the idea of making a Jacksonville-Gadsden district for Corrine Brown. Her presence just kills any Democratic hopes of getting a strong foothold in the Orlando area. In addition it makes all the other districts in the area between north and central Florida rather ugly.
I will post my FL-27 map soon, where it will attempt to have more horizontal districts that are likely the way for Democrats to at-least be closer; in Florida the Republicans run the show, since this is true we are looking at at best 10-D, 15R, 2swing.
Does anyone here know where I can find precinct maps of 2008/2010 Congressional results in the Tampa Bay area?