Thanks for the posting the map

and I think its a great start.

I mentioned the idea of going college town with FL3  on last thread and I really like that move.  

I think all those districts are VRA compliant--the % is the white % IMO.  You will have a good bit of side by side hispanic voters with AA in those districts.  

In CD17 the big last year was among Haiti & more native AA's.  Two Haiti candidates split the vote and let Wilson win the D primary.

I defer to others here and ask whether other then the VRA seats if we need to see a map without any extra crossed lines?

I am clueless on this matter.  

The amendment is not clear on what compactness means and what limits there are on crossing political lines.

I might add that a town can be on the edge of a county and have more contact with the county south of it as opposed to the North end of the same county.  So I am sure what this amendment calls for in lines?

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by: rdelbov @ Sun Jan 09, 2011 at 22:16:13 PM UTC

i like this map

i do think stearns is plenty safe, and buchanan isn't vulnerable unless obama's winning in a landslide (e.g. wave election).

west is gone.
young's probably safe until retirement, in which case we will probably take the seat over.  

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

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by: jncca @ Sun Jan 09, 2011 at 22:25:24 PM UTC

Why is Buchanan safe?

He won by 357 votes controversially in 2006, and then in 2008 his opposition was both sore-loser Christine Jennings and independent former D nominee Jan Schneider.  The 2010 Florida results are ridiculously pro-GOP (I think that Charlie Crist going Indy was the best thing the state GOP could have had), so I'm not sure that means anything.

---

by: powera @ Sun Jan 09, 2011 at 22:47:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wouldn't know untill we have a fresh candidate. n/t

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

---

by: D in FL @ Sun Jan 09, 2011 at 23:36:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

incumbents nearly always gain

a % due to district work and then Buchanan now has a plum seat on Ways & Means.  I think he is personally quite wealthy which also tends to discourage oppisition.  

I don't know him but that's a typical pattern.  You see lots of incumbents lose in wave years and then you see them hold on.  

We had a poster awhile back the one with the 25 points on electing 25 democratsand one point I disagree with him on is that candidates really do matter.  They are not everything but they matter a lot.  Incumbents-especially those with money can scare awhere top tier guys and or discourage funding second tier guys.

I don't know VB but his committee creditionals are now saying long termer.  

---

by: rdelbov @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 00:02:21 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Buchanan

I lived in FL-13 when Harris & Buchanan were both representatives.  Buchanan's record isn't as conservative as Harris' for one, and in a neutral year he would have beaten Christine Jennings the first time by a few percent (I've met her and she isn't the most charismatic person, by any means).  Harris definitely was a drag on him.

Buchanan also has a ton of money and makes sure projects & such get brought back to the district.  The only thing that is a drag on him is the issues with the FEC over his dealership manager trying to force employees to donate to Buchanan's 2006 campaign, but that case has become so muddled that Buchanan's actually the filer in the complaint against his manager.  So I doubt that's going to have any effect on his reelection, since there really isn't any standout Democratic candidate that I've heard about.

IMO, Likely Republican at this point.

20, Ind, Fl-13 & Fl-6 (college)

---

by: MikeFL @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 00:59:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks for the imput

That's been my view of Buchanan from a distance.  You can be a conservative and win a lot of votes in the middle and  even cipher off liberal voters(some) due to local district work.  

VB does not chase microphones and does not seem to have a hard political hard edge about him.  

That combination is usually the way to run ahead  of your party in your district.  

---

by: rdelbov @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 01:16:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Redistricting is always an aid in retirement

Not that he could'nt easily win but it is one more incentive to go with the "fuck it" option.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

---

by: D in FL @ Sun Jan 09, 2011 at 23:37:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I've heard rumors

that Bill Young's wife is practically making him stay in his seat so that his 26 or 27 year old son Billy Young can run for his seat. Apparently, Young has wanted to retire for years.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

---

by: TokenRepublican @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 01:45:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

If true

Why not make the transition in 2010? This would've been the ideal election cycle for a GOP nepotistic transition.

---

by: roguemapper @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 02:02:05 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I recall

Young's opponent was originally hyped up before the climate started shifting towards the Republicans, so it was probably too late to switch back, if this is true.

20, Ind, Fl-13 & Fl-6 (college)

---

by: MikeFL @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 02:55:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Elections in Pinellas

Charlie Justice, Justice was only in his first term as a State Senator. He represented this district that kinda only had about 25% overlap.

Bill Young did really well since hes an institution. Like most long serving Congressmen on Appropriations and Armed Services hes got his name on a lot of stuff; namely a large reservoir in Pinellas county. Oh and Bill Young got 60% in 2008, against a decent candidate (Mayor Bob Hackworth of Dunedin).

---

by: notifier @ Tue Jan 11, 2011 at 02:05:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Because he's no Aaron Schock.

Billy Young doesn't have the platform to run for office on, and she wanted him to wait another cycle is the word on the street. Congressman Gus Bilirakis from the district to the north of Bill Young's, FL-09, took over his dad's seat, but he was a highly respected state legislator who served 10 years before winning a contested primary to win his dad's seat.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

---

by: TokenRepublican @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 04:18:53 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ahh, OK

I get it now. I looked him up and it seems at last report he was a community relations specialist for some non-profit group. So, it seems he's not even a Billy Tauzin III, much less an Aaron Schock.

I hate political nepotism - no matter what side of the aisle. Billy Young needs to wait more than another cycle - and actually do something useful - if he wants to get elected, and running in a presidential year is certainly not the way to go, I might add.

---

by: roguemapper @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 04:49:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Patrick Kenney, Lisa Murkowski, and Dan Lipinski

are prime examples of this sort of political nepotism... I'm not trying to offend any liberals on here, but any Congressman who crashes into a Capitol Security station at 2 in the morning "going to votes" while on Ambien should never have been a Congressman. He didn't really even have a job before he ran, only the golden name. Lisa Murkowski is a prime example of pure nepotism in my GOP. After serving 3 terms in the Alaska House of Representatives, she was NOT ready to serve in the United States Senate when her father, Frank Murkowski, appointed her! She even failed the Bar exam 4 times. She's turned out to be a decent Senator, but she should never have gotten to Washington in the first place. I'm fine with the sons or daughters of Congressmen or Senators running for their political office, but when the seat is just a "hand me down," it's a corruption of our democratic system. Dan Lipinski was literally handed his seat because his dad retired after filing for reelection, and the local Democratic Party selected him to run in his father's place... and he hadn't even lived in the district for 10 years! If someone like Gus Bilirakis, who served as a state legislator for 10 years (and won a contested primary), runs for their parent's seat, that's fine. However, Congressmen like Dan Lipinski and former US Rep Patrick Kennedy have no place in Congress. Congresspeople should be qualified to serve their constituents.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

---

by: TokenRepublican @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 05:14:08 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Just for the record

I completely agree with everything you've said.

---

by: roguemapper @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 05:21:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Patrick Kennedy won all of his elections

fair and square. And the others subsequently won elections after questionable legs-up.

If you're going to complain about nepotism of this kind, then you really ought to be upset with a political system that requires so much money to participate in.  

---

by: andgarden @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 05:24:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

1994

It did help though that every time Kevin Vigilante (Patrick Kennedy's opponent in his first congressional election) tried to get any media attention, Caroline or JFK, Jr. or one of the other big Kennedy names would just 'happen' to show up in Rhode Island. Total coincidence of course.

---

by: roguemapper @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 05:33:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

So family members aren't allowed to help if their famous?

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

---

by: ndrwmls10 @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 05:40:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Look

I'm not really here to bash Patrick Kennedy, especially since I'm a hardcore Democrat, but I'm also not a hypocrite. I hate political nepotism - period. That's the case whether it's George W. Bush or Patrick Kennedy or Billy Tauzin III or the widow of the recently deceased Mel Carnahan.

The fact of the matter is that Patrick Kennedy was elected to the Rhode Island State House as a (later self-admitted) alcoholic, drug addict college student at the age of 21. If you can make the argument that he won that election on the basis of anything besides his name then by all means.

He did much of nothing for two terms in the RI legislature, then ran for one of the ten most Democratic seats in the nation two years later. He won with 54% of the vote in that first Congressional election.

How many points is the Kennedy name worth in Rhode Island?

---

by: roguemapper @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 05:53:06 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's definitely not one of the

most Democratic seats in the country, but I agree with your larger point.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

---

by: ndrwmls10 @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 05:56:30 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think people are crazy to elect

most of the Republican caucus. That doesn't make their elections any less legitimate.

I can't understand what your standard is for unfair advantage here.  

---

by: andgarden @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 05:56:56 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

My standard..

..is that people should be elected on the merits of what they've done, not on the basis of their last name.

And, for what it's worth, I completely agree with the point about money & politics. That's why I firmly believe that all federal elections should be restricted to public funding.

---

by: roguemapper @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 05:59:35 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

That comes down to the voter.

If a someone in Louisiana can vote for David Vitter after what he did, then so be it. He was reelected fair and square, however disgusting it may be.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

---

by: ndrwmls10 @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 06:03:51 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well

I never said that Patrick Kennedy's election was 'illegitimate' or anything of the kind. But, that doesn't mean that I have to like nepotism, or pretend that didn't play a role. Sure, his voting record was excellent so far as I'm concerned, but so is Jim Langevin's and I imagine so will be Jim Cicilline's. They were elected on the merits of what they've done.

The fact that Louisiana Republicans re-elected a whoremonger doesn't change any of that. And, I might add, that is the least of what's wrong with David Vitter...

---

by: roguemapper @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 06:11:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

David Cicilline

Typo bug!

---

by: roguemapper @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 06:17:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dog bites man

What of it?

---

by: andgarden @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 05:47:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hey man

as someone who has lived in RI-01 for all but the past three years of his life, I find that a bit disrespectful to Patrick Kennedy. How much do you know about him or what he did? Yes, he had some psychological problems, that's not his fault. As someone who has had psychological issues personally, I am very appreciative of his and his father's sponsorship of mental health parity legislation. If anything I am glad that someone who understands the pain of emotional disorders was there for us, because who knows what the alternative would be given how much misinformation and negative stereotyping about depression and associated disorders there is. And given that RI has a relatively low number of mental health professionals and is one of the most "depressed" states in the country, I'd say Patrick Kennedy did a good job taking a leadership role on an issue important to his constituents. I really wish you'd think twice before bashing him as some useless buffoon who got Daddy to buy him a congressional seat.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

---

by: sapelcovits @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 08:48:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

On my part

I have no desire to keep going off on this tangent. All I really signed up to talk about is redistricting. I have nothing against Patrick Kennedy per se, to say the least, and he's not even in office anymore. I agree he did good while he was there, and I'll just leave it at that.

---

by: roguemapper @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 09:28:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sorry, didn't mean to start/add to a tangent,

but it is my recollection that Republicans are not allowed to bash Democrats on this site...

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

---

by: sapelcovits @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 09:56:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

No need to apologize

If anything, I should. I essentially started the tangent on nepotism since that's a topic that particularly irks me, and in large part because the archetype of worthless political nepotism is George W. Bush.

I'm not here to antagonize anyone, and if I'd stopped to reflect on it I would've cut myself off sooner. I just want to indulge my map fetish. LOL

---

by: roguemapper @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 10:33:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

My point was not to bash,

it was to say that politicians should be elected 100% on their own merit and 0% on their family name.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

---

by: TokenRepublican @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 11:54:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nice map.

only disagreements are that I think the 18th is vulnerable if Ros-Lehtinen retires and I think both Rivera and Diaz-Balart would be in trouble if the dems produce credible candidates.

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

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by: D in FL @ Sun Jan 09, 2011 at 23:35:46 PM UTC

Miami is a long-term GOP problem

Fidel Castro isn't going to win them these seats for another generation.  I don't see any reason that I've made all 3 of them less safe in this map, though.

---

by: powera @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 03:03:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Why would she retire?

She is Chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. She has a blank check to travel the world at government expense, while ensuring that our policy toward Cuba remains absurd.

She'll still be there in her 70s.

---

by: emilysdad @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 04:15:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't expect it

but in the event of we would be more likely to pick that one off then the other two (if Rivera wasn't as corrupt as he is). There is some Democratic strength in the Keys along with the change in voting between younger/older cubans.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

---

by: D in FL @ Tue Jan 11, 2011 at 22:54:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Has anyone drawn a Democratic map?

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

---

by: ndrwmls10 @ Sun Jan 09, 2011 at 23:39:14 PM UTC

What for?

There is no chance of a Democratic map since the legislature and governor are Republicans. A court map would be a 'least-change' map based on a successfully challenged Republican map.

---

by: roguemapper @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 00:08:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

For no real reason.

It would be nice too see what a Democratic map would look like and I was just wondering if anybody made one.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

---

by: ndrwmls10 @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 00:14:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It'd be interesting

Though I'd find it more depressing than nice.. If Dave's app had partisan data for Florida then I'd try to do one, but since it'd be an approximation at best with the presently available data, it seems more trouble than it's worth.

I was able to draw a 13-0 Democratic map of North Carolina, however (i.e., 13 Obama districts), so I doubt it'd be too difficult to draw a Florida map with 20+ Obama districts. If it weren't for the panhandle, you could probably get very close to 27.

---

by: roguemapper @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 00:48:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Florida along with California are the big wild cards

for control of the house in 2012. anywhere from 5-10 seats could be picked off in those 2 states alone.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

---

by: D in FL @ Sun Jan 09, 2011 at 23:40:23 PM UTC

Then you have Illinois and Maryland.

It seems as long as Obama is reelected, we have a good chance of retaking the house.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

---

by: ndrwmls10 @ Sun Jan 09, 2011 at 23:44:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Indeed the cards could fall either way

at this point it's 50-50 as long as Obama holds his own.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

---

by: D in FL @ Tue Jan 11, 2011 at 22:51:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Close to what might happen, but lots of county splits

The amendments passed discourage that unless it's necessary.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

---

by: DrPhillips @ Sun Jan 09, 2011 at 23:59:55 PM UTC

Probably more splits than necessary

Some are for VRA purposes (both Brown and Hastings' districts will be ugly if they want to get close to 50% black), others are because I wanted to keep as many lines as close as possible.  The Fort Myers/SW Florida districts in particular would be cleaner if everything rotated about half a CD (and nothing crossed the Everglades), but I would have no partisan/incumbent ideas then.  Orlando could probably be a bit cleaner, though.

---

by: powera @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 02:59:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's the type of thinking that it is the hallmark of

the MI map for the GOP.  You have to group counties together. Here's how it would go to benefit the GOP.

CD16 starts at Collier and then Glades - Highland Henry and whatever it needs in Lee.

CD14 takes in rest of Lee Plus Charlotte and whatever in  Sarasota county.  

CD13 is balance of Sarasota-Manatee plus Hardee-Desoto plus part of southern hillsborough.

CD12 is Polk plus eastern Hillborough

CD11 is all democratic stuff in Hillsborough

CD10 is Pineallas

CD9 is balance of Hillsborough and balance of Pineallas

Sorry about county spelling.

Monroe & Dade is three hispanic plus one AA plus it will need 300K in Broward. This is similar to today's map and should fly VRA.

Then you do the four Broward/Palm beach seats. I think that's about all of the population.  

At that point you turn North and continue a similar pattern.

---

by: rdelbov @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 03:47:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sure, you can do that

But it doesn't give them quite as much flexibility as they would otherwise have.

I think it's probably right that the Republicans will get a map they're happy with, though.  

---

by: andgarden @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 04:26:34 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Here's my

best guess and its that they will cross as few lines as possible except for VRA seats.

They will also attach  a legislative reasoning to help avoid court or lessen court battles.  Yup its a pain but they apparently need to justify any county splits.

I for one do not think these nasty jagged districts in all cases at leasthelp political parties all that much.

A lot of computer draw maps add a block here or a precinct here to add a hundred or so votes and in 95% of races that's just not needed.  

There is no doubt the big splits like the one in Leon county on the 1st map makes a difference but the little ones around the edges do not add or substract much. You could smooth most linesother then the path to Leon and within big counties and it would not make much difference.

---

by: rdelbov @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 15:07:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

How safe would Gus Bilirakis be?

Congressman Bilirakis is truly one of the best people in Washington in terms of both personal integrity and working with both parties efficiently... how safe would he be in this map?

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

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by: TokenRepublican @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 04:34:16 AM UTC

it looks very similar to his current one

i'd say r + 6?

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

---

by: jncca @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 05:54:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

There was a Gulf Coast pocket

from Bill Young's district that was enveloped in his in current form that has been added to the 9th in this map. Does anyone know what effect that would have?

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

---

by: TokenRepublican @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 13:34:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think that makes the 9th more Republican and the 10th more Democratic

That "pinch" area currently in the 9th is, I believe a heavily minority section of Clearwater. The area in the current 10th is a whiter pocket along the Gulf Coast.

So I'm guessing that maneuver was done to make the 10th a little safer. Undoing it will probably push the 10th to EVEN and the 9th to R+7.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)

---

by: shamlet @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 19:40:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's what I figured

It looks like Bilirakis will likely be strengthened and Young weakened, but Young will likely be safe until retirement. Due to the compactness clause and boundaries by county, may Bilirakis have to give up the western coast of Pasco County? That is one of his weakest areas. That could hurt Rich Nugent. Also, What do you estimate Dennis Ross' PVI to be?

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

---

by: TokenRepublican @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 20:05:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

There is no clear understanding of what

is exactly required under this amendment.  So when you have to attach 200K Pasco county to CD9, for instance, there does not appear to be any limitation on what portion of the county you attach.  You could decide to attach the beach area of the county or 1/2 of the beach plus 1/2 of county not on the beach.  There will parts of CD9 on the beach but there are inner rural/suburban parts too.  There are diverse communities of interest within every county.

So if the GOP just happens to take the beach area and that if of benefit to both congressman then there's no problem.  I suspect Pasco county is fairly uniform politically through out.  If you use smooth lines to divide county a north / south or east /west division would probably not make a lot of difference.    

---

by: rdelbov @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 20:14:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bilrakis' area

Pasco is about 55% Republican throughout. New Port Richey is moderate, the rest of the county is Center-Right, so that and coupled with Northern Hillsborough and Pinellas it makes a Republican friendly area. Bilrakis is safe as those areas are suburban Republican bastions; the district he has now looks weird but it represents the area well. If it were to be modified it should end at I-75 or around Bruce B Downs in Northern Tampa.
Take in mind that the University of South Florida area is divided in 3 districts (Bilrakis, Castor, Ross) neutralizing student voting power in Congress (albeit they rarely vote).  

---

by: notifier @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 21:17:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Tampa Bay area

Id recommend this for a map.

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

CD-1 Blue is Bilrakis' and it gets alittle swingyer but has his base of Tarpon Springs and Palm Harbor. I'd say the district is R+4.5
CD-2 Purple is Bill Young's to be honest its probably more Democratic than it was, since Bilrakis gets the Tarpon and Dunedin areas. The addition of St. Petersburg is probably the pink slip for Bill Young as the addition of that and the subtraction of the northern part probably put this at D+3
CD-3 Green is Kathy Castor's it gets more compact. The addition of some suburbs will make it less democratic, namely Brandon and Temple Terrace. I do however think this is still atleast a D+9 district.
CD-4 Red is Dennis Ross' it pretty much picks up what Bilrakis didn't get to keep, it has North Tampa and goes east to Lakeland; I'd say it stays around R+5 and with the subtraction of Brandon and Temple Terrace it may be more moderate.

---

by: notifier @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 22:29:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thank you for the invo, this is what I figrued. Also...

Is there any chance that Bilirakis' 9th district gets rid of its Pasco County territory? His dad did not have this territory in the 90s, but I believe it was added to shore up Bill Young and allow for Ginny Brown Waite to defeat Karen Thurman by making her 5th District far more conservative.
Another question- does anyone here know where I can find precinct maps of 2008/2010 Congressional results in the Tampa Bay area?

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

---

by: TokenRepublican @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 23:24:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Remember fair

I drew Bilrakis' district to be sort of fair to the areas in which he is based as the areas made in blue are in a way related in interest, if there were voting districts I would be alittle more precise and subtract the Hudson area above New Port Richey and go eastward towards Land O' Lakes.

---

by: notifier @ Tue Jan 11, 2011 at 01:42:45 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Is FL-11 VRA Protected?

I think it's slightly less than 50% white which means it may have to keep that black chunk of St. Pete even with Am. 6.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)

---

by: shamlet @ Tue Jan 11, 2011 at 01:23:53 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

VRA

It may be, but the only way it can be is a minority coalition. I have not heard much about Castor's district being a VRA district but more of a liberal packing one.

---

by: notifier @ Tue Jan 11, 2011 at 01:44:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

That is a result of partisan gerrymandering

Young's district is very divided, with a slight Republican edge, that portion of St. Petersberg keeps the district from potentially having a Democratic PVI. Young probably wouldn't have any problems himself with that portion include, but an open seat situation would be problematic for Republicans.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

---

by: DrPhillips @ Tue Jan 11, 2011 at 03:26:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I get that it wasn't crafted as VRA, but

That section of St. Petersburg is also very heavily black. If you took it out of FL-11 you'd have to replace it with some whiter (at least relatively speaking) suburbs of Tampa. Because FL-11 is just under 50% white, that's liable to push it to a white majority, which I think raises VRA problems.

These just-about-50%-white districts are a real thorny question. FL-11, MA-8, GA-2, etc... where the VRA comes down on these kinds of seats are not clear to me at all.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)

---

by: shamlet @ Tue Jan 11, 2011 at 03:35:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

No chance it's needed

Any compact liberal Tampa-based district they draw will easily be over 50% minority without the section of St. Pete.  I'm fairly certain every map of FL-11 so far in this thread is minority-majority.

---

by: powera @ Tue Jan 11, 2011 at 04:37:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Right you are

I was mistakenly looking at 2000 data - then it was impossible to make FL-11 majority minority without crossing Tampa Bay. But now you can make a 45% white seat entirely in Hillsborough.

This is bad news for Republicans. It basically means Bill Young is going to have to take up 50K black voters, which should push his district to the D+5 area. Young has run well ahead of the PVI for this district, so I think he can probably hold D+5 except in a bad wave year. But it's a matter of when, not if, this seat flips. I think the only good option here is to protect 9, 12, and 13 by making FL-10 as Democratic as it can get without endangering Young.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)

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by: shamlet @ Tue Jan 11, 2011 at 14:58:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Like the map

I like to see a Florida Map, I do think that its abit hard to do a Democratic map of Florida as its hard to get an accurate reading on the partisanship of some areas. I really like the idea of making a Jacksonville-Gadsden district for Corrine Brown. Her presence just kills any Democratic hopes of getting a strong foothold in the Orlando area. In addition it makes all the other districts in the area between north and central Florida rather ugly.
I will post my FL-27 map soon, where it will attempt to have more horizontal districts that are likely the way for Democrats to at-least be closer; in Florida the Republicans run the show, since this is true we are looking at at best 10-D, 15R, 2swing.

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by: notifier @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 17:56:43 PM UTC

Precinct Maps

Does anyone here know where I can find precinct maps of 2008/2010 Congressional results in the Tampa Bay area?

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

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by: TokenRepublican @ Tue Jan 11, 2011 at 03:09:44 AM UTC