Google Ads


Site Stats

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

by: James L.

Fri Jan 07, 2011 at 6:31 PM EST


It ain't no sin to be glad you're alive.

James L. :: Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
Tags: , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 169 comments
Chicago Mayor: Rahm still looking good in new poll
http://blogs.suntimes.com/swee...

In Anzalone Liszt's poll for the Chicago Teamsters Joint Council 25, Rahm is ahead with 42%.  Moseley Braun has 26%, Chico 10%, and Del Valle 7%.  In a run-off Rahm beats Moseley Braun 53%-31%.  Rahm's favorables are also very good: he's at 68%-22%, Moseley Braun has 50%-41%, Chico 44%-20%, and Del Valle 30%-18%.  


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


Rahm is going to want
to try and win this one without a runoff. The head-to-head with Moseley Braun shows him in good shape now, but the dynamics of the race could change in unpredictable ways if there is a second round. The numbers are scarier for Rahm if Moseley Braun consolidates the black vote. And notwithstanding her unpopularity, that is possible.  
[ Parent ]
So...
...what exactly are the actual issues the front-runners are running on?  Reform, expansion, austerity?  All I ever hear about is the race and power politics aspect of this horse race.  What are the actual issues being put forth, because Chicago has a lot of really big and pressing issues and problems that rarely get picked up in the national media.
[ Parent ]
Notice How
No one has answered your question since you first posted it last night? The reality is SSP is all about horserace politics, the numbers, who's up and who's down. The main goal being to elect Democrats and Democrats only. Never mind what they stand for, just as long as they have a 'D' next to their name. Issues be damned.

Am I right, guys?

[ Parent ]
I asked the same question last week
http://www.swingstateproject.c...

It doesn't seem like issues are being discussed anywhere, it's just racial politics.

[ Parent ]
It's a mayor's race, you wouldn't know or care if you don't live in Chicago. But if Sheamus is so unhappy...
...with the quality of the discussion here, he's free to go elsewhere.  I suspect I'm not alone in contempt toward the attitude in his comment.  Yes this site is for horserace politics, the moderators make that clear by often admonishing much else.

Meanwhile, as I said, I doubt many of us care about the Chicago mayor's race.  I sure don't.  Therefore, we're not going to discuss "issues" in that race.  Even a state legislative race is more interesting to me because at least it says something about the state of the partisan balance in that state, which in turn says something about our chances of winning Congressional and Senate races in that state and, once a decade, redistricting in that state.  But the Chicago mayor's race informs me of nothing at all regarding politics outside Chicago.

There's nothing at all wrong with discussing the Chicago mayor's race here, but it should be no surprise not many of us care about it or join in discussions about it.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Well said.


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
well said


22, male, VA-10
[ Parent ]
If you know what issues voters in Chicago care about
Why don't you post about them, yourself? Preferably with some polling data.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Candidate websites
Here are the issue pages for the four leading candidates:

Chico
Del Valle
Emanuel
Moseley Braun

Most seem pretty standard: jobs, housing, taxes, environment, etc. Good government/transparency/reform is on the agenda for all but Moseley Braun.

Items more idiosyncratic to Chicago: Emanuel has a page on TIF reform (glancing at it, it seems to be about special tax districts for local improvement projects) and Moseley Braun has a page on the parking meter lease.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

[ Parent ]
By my count, Rahm needs 53% of the undecideds to cross the run-off mark
My hunch is that's much easier said than done, given the other three will make him their punching bag in the debates (which start less than two weeks from now). Still, whether he can cross the finish line is the only question right now - if he doesn't, Moseley Braun almost certainly looks like his one-on-one opponent. Even if Del Valle dropped out and the Hispanic vote fled to Chico, Chico would fall comfortably short.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
fyi...
...rep. ted deutch is a BIG springsteen fan.
but the biggest...
Is Christie.  Something like 120 shows that he's been to.  Christie says he couldn't care less about his politics, and really wanted him to play the inauguration, but Springsteen refused.
[ Parent ]
I love that he refused
Not the world's biggest Springsteen fan, but the one concert I did go to was an early date with Mr. desmoinesdem way back in 1993. Good times!
[ Parent ]
Question time:
3 Questions:

Answer any or all of them.

1. Of the politicians who have taken office in the past 4 years (the 2006-2010 classes) who do you think will be talked up as possible presidential and vice presidential nominees come 2016?

2. Who do you think will be overrated?

3. Of the people who have the best odds, or who you're currently rooting for, who would the the other party be best nominating against them? e.g. would Brian Schweitzer be the ideal opponent for Chris Christie? Susana Martinez for Andrew Cuomo?

20, Ind, PA-14

Hrm...
U.S. President:
Michele Bachmann
Scott Brown
Chris Christie
Andrew Cuomo
Mitch Daniels
Bobby Jindal
Rick Snyder

Vice President:
Nikki Haley
Joe Manchin
Susana Martinez
Marco Rubio
Brian Sandoval
Aaron Schock
Tim Scott

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Hmmm.
1) President - Gillibrand / Vice President - Jay Nixon

2) Marco Rubio


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Nice questions
1. Divided it up.

On the Democratic side: Gov. O'Malley of Maryland, Sen. Udall of Colorado, Rep. Giffords of Arizona, Sen. Gillibrand of New York, Gov. Malloy of Connecticut, Gov. Cuomo of New York, Sen. Warner of Virginia, Sen. McCaskill of Missouri, Mayor Booker of New Jersey.

On the Republican side: Sen. Rubio of Florida, Gov. McDonnell of Virginia, Gov.-elect Haley of South Carolina, Gov. Jindal of Louisiana, Gov. Martinez of New Mexico, Gov. Sandoval of Nevada, Gov. Christie of New Jersey, Sen. Brown of Massachusetts, Sen. Hoeven of North Dakota, Rep. Kinzinger of Illinois, Rep. Schweikert of Arizona, Rep. Herrera Buetler of Washington.

2. Of those I mentioned: Cuomo, Warner, McCaskill, McDonnell, Haley, Jindal, Christie, Brown, and Herrera Buetler. Some of them are bound to generate more buzz than others, but I think some are going to be outright disappointing. I don't see Christie's "star" going national, and I don't see Cuomo suddenly revitalizing New York and launching a successful presidential bid as some of his inner circle have predicted.

3. Hmm, this is tough. A Republican of color would definitely be a formidable counter to most white Democrats. I think it would be a big mistake for any ticket to not cover at least two geographical areas, and I think the Mountain West, the Great Lakes, and the mid-Atlantic are probably going to be key regions (as usual). For example, if Vincent Sheheen wins election to Sen. Graham's seat or beats Haley in 2014, he might be a good VP pick for a Schweitzer or an Udall; likewise, Giffords would be a great pick for an O'Malloy or a Booker.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
A few for Number 1
On the Democratic side, plenty of people push around Gov. Andrew Cuomo (NY), but a few other possibilities for 2016 that I think get short thrift:

Amy Klobuchar
Sheldon Whitehouse

Both would be the right age for a presidential campaign, both come from solid states and can expect comfortable reelection bids in two years. In Klobuchar's case, there will be enormous pressure to have a woman on the Democratic ticket in 2016 given Hillary's near-miss in 2008 and Palin's Republican VP nomination.

A few others from the recent classes: Mark Warner (though I think he missed his major chance in '08), maybe Sherrod Brown.

On the Republican side, a WHOLE lot: Marco Rubio, Rick Snyder, Bob McDonnell, Brian Sandoval, Susana Martinez.  

[ Parent ]
Answer time
1.

Democrats: Amy Klobuchar, Kirsten Gillibrand, Claire McCaskill, Andrew Cuomo, Jack Markell, Mark Warner, Sherrod Brown, John Hickenlooper, Chris Coons.

Republicans: Bobby Jindal, Chris Christie, Sarah Palin, Nikki Haley, Susan Martienez, Bob McDonnell, John Kasich, Rick Snyder, Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Kelly Ayotte, Mike Lee, Pat Toomey

2. Not sure what you mean. Overrated ala Giuliani? Probably Mark Warner, Bobby Jindal, Chris Christie, Rick Snyder, Rand Paul.

3. I don't think it's good to pick a candidate based on their opponent. It would be a sad statement if Republicans nominated a woman before us, I guess. Other than that I think the general strongest candidate should be picked on either side, regardless of who the other side will pick.

My prediction? Schweitzer (class of 2004) / Gillibrand vs Rubio / Martienez.

Yeah. The Republicans have a much more attractive field. Not looking forward to 2016. Can't we delay to 2020?  

[ Parent ]
The Republicans have a much more attractive field. NOT
Nearly all of these folks have obvious flaws.

Republicans: Bobby Jindal - Kenneth The Page, Chris Christie - Fatty/Jersey, Sarah Palin - Don't even get me started, Nikki Haley - Scarlet A, Susana Martienez(sp) - I will give you Martinez as the electorally-scariest of the bunch, Bob McDonnell - Crazy, John Kasich - Boring/Who?, Rick Snyder - Never Survive A Primary, Scott Walker Bland/Dumb, Marco Rubio Corrupt, Rand Paul - Paultard, Kelly Ayotte - Corrupt/Bug-Eyed, Mike Lee - Who?, Pat Toomey - Crazy

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Pat Toomey is crazy? Maybe like a fox.
We cannot count on voters not to elect extremists. Reagan was an extremist for his day, and so was George W. Bush (the question of whether he was fairly elected either time aside).

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
He's not unelectabley crazy
More of a too far right for mainstream voters kind of candidate. He won by two points in a year when Republicans swept the rust belt. yes, he's no O'Donnel, but without a whirlwind at the GOP's back, he's too far right to win (as are many of these candidates)  
[ Parent ]
Be careful though...
Where would State Sen. Barack Obama been on Republicans' lists of threatening Democratic Presidential candidates in January of 2003?  Probably not in the Top 100.  Talk of a weak bench 5 before an election is silly.  You don't need a very deep bench.  You need one perfect candidate for the right time.  

And if Democrats are going to reduce strength of candidacy to attacks on physical features, then they are sunk for sure.  Thankfully I don't think arealmic speaks for most of the reasoned posters on this board.

[ Parent ]
Anytime someone cites Barack Obama as an example, that someone barks up the wrong tree......
Obama is a once-in-a-generation political superstar.  It's become common for people to say "Obama did it, so" this guy or that lady can.

But that's just not true.

Obama likely will be the only President in my lifetime who had zero name recognition even among political junkies a mere 5 years before he was elected.  It's virtually impossible that we'll see that again.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I think the same

I think we know now the 90% (or more) of the challengers what will emerge in 2016 elections. Maybe more. Times of crisis help emerging new politicians, but if the things go well we see not new (really new) faces.
[ Parent ]
the only similar example that comes to mind
is Abraham Lincoln.

Obama had "the speech" in '04, Lincoln had his debates with Douglas in 1858.

Even Jimmy Carter was somewhat known among junkies in '71 as some nutty Gov of GA who happened to be something other than a racist. However, nobody considered him serious until he started winning primaries. So he was in the same ballpark w/r/t name recognition. In addition, his candidacy paved the way for other dwarfs to try and keep trying.

I think President Obama's success will have a similar effect on the number of "some dudes" who will run on the R side in '12, on both sides in '16 and on for a few cycles.

[ Parent ]
Clinton
How well known was he in 1990?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
he passed on an 88 run
and was governor in Arkansas for almost a decade.  he also gave a terrible 32 minute speech at the 88 convention.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Yup, Gov Clinton starting in '78
Anyone elected as a Gov at the age of 32 is thought of by political insiders as eventual Presidential timber.

It was understood that he could not go through the Senate to enhance his Presidential ambitions, as Bumpers and Pryor (Mark's father) had seats for life.

In Clinton's first term, he did things that were perhaps a bit too liberal for Arkansas -- and was defeated in the '80 Reagan landslide. He came back and won in '82 and governed as a centrist ever since. If I remember right, Hillary took Bill's last name for that campaign too.

[ Parent ]
Your memory of HIllary is 100% correct, she did...
...change from "Hillary Rodham" to "Hillary Clinton" for the 1982 comeback.  It's no big deal at all today, but back then a married woman keeping her maiden name was identified with far left feminism, which of course played badly in Arkansas.

But regarding why Bill lost in 1980, I never read before what the reasons were, but I had not seen that ideology had anything to do with it.  What exactly did he do in that first term that pissed people off?

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Vague memories
(not supported by Wikipedia) I think it was more than the reaction to the Cuban refugees in the state at the time, Clinton did raise taxes, and went after educational reforms that I think the voters did not understand.
[ Parent ]
Yup, and Clinton was picked to keynote that '88 convention speech because...
...he was regarded a rising star.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
i think ann richards was keynote
bill just gave a speech.  i think, i may be mistaken.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Yup, you're right, I had wrongly remembered Richards' speech as being in 1992. So...
...Clinton's speech had less billing.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Absolutely right, just as the GOP clamors to find their own Obama-like superstar...
...there will be plenty of some dudes who clamor to become that superstar.  And all will fail.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Oh my, you're digging deep to bring up Lincoln!......
It never would occur to me to dig through the 19th century archives!

I don't think they had the telegraph yet in 1860, did they?

I don't know what "name recognition" means in an era when you don't know the election results even in a blowout until a guy on horseback shows up in town to deliver them a couple weeks after the election.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
On reflection, I didn't have to dig quite that deep
Woodrow Wilson's first elected office was Gov of NJ in 1910, and he was elected President two years later only because of TR's vendetta against Taft.

(You're essentially right about the telegraph, while it was developed earlier, it was the Civil War that accelerated its development.)

[ Parent ]
Fun
1. Gabrielle Giffords. I know this sounds lame but I honestly have no doubt she'll be something some day. I really get a good vibe from her. When she gets in the Senate she'll be on the shortlists for sure. I think she will probably make it on a ticket someday, maybe even leading.

John Hickenlooper. My fave of this cycle. He's got what it takes. I think he'll at least make the short list.

Rob Portman. I don't like him but he has money, connections, geography, conservative support and will probably be considered.

Marco Rubio. I really didn't want him to win as I think he will go far.

2. Susana Martinez. I really don't see her making a national ticket. She'll get considered on paper just because they'll have to but she will not make it past Governor.

Niki Haley- She barely wins in a GREAT year and does not really offer anything besides well you know. Have you ever heard her speak? Not really impressive.

Andrew Cuomo- He'll be a Governor and that's it. I have nothing against him but he adds nothing to a ticket.

3. How about a Romney Rubio ticket verses a Clinton Hickenlooper one? That would be an interesting lineup for 2016.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Interesting picks.
Pretty much agree they are all players only beef is I don't see Giffords pulling the lever on a run for Kyls seat unless he retires and McCains isn't up till 2016 so barring a death/special election I don't see how she moves up.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
She's young
enough so that she can wait. She's only 40 now, so she could run in 2020 after winning McCain's seat and, at 50, she might even be young for a presidential candidate. Perhaps the better move is to run for governor at some point.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Oh very true
I stand corrected I thought she was in her late 40s I just didn't she pulling a senate run in her 60s (not that it isn't possible just lack of interest/republicans throwing bombs at her every 2 years for a decade untill she eventully loses an election as more likely). But if she is only 40 then I would expect a run out of her in 2016 or 18 maybe 12 but I still think thats unlikely even if Kyl retires.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
see her* late 50s*
lack of interest due to seniority* bleah that was a bad comment all around.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
My matchups for 2016...
And I have to say right away that Sen. Portman is dull as sawdust and I don't really see him going any further than the Senate, and he wouldn't be in the Senate if not for the wave and a crappy opponent, I don't think (he trailed in head-to-head polling until a few weeks after the primary election, IIRC).

I agree Sen. Rubio will be on the GOP ticket, and I'm getting a really great vibe from Gov.-elect Hickenlooper, whom I just like a lot.

Huntsman/Rubio vs. O'Malley/Giffords would be a good matchup. Schweitzer/Klobuchar is probably my favorite prospective Democratic ticket, though.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Good question
I don't have anything to add to part 1  since most of the names I had in mind were covered above, although I would add Kristi Noem for a year further down the road.

Much as I hate to say this, I think Susana Martinez is a tad overrated, at least for now. I'd like to see her govern before she's hailed as a future VP pick.

As for 3, I think Rubio/Christie and Jindal/Kasich are both plausible GOP tickets for 2014. Klouchar/Schwietzer could cause real problems for either of those.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Ok
1. R - Marco Rubio, Chris Christie (only if he's still popular, which could happen), Scott Brown, Susana Martinez, Nikki Haley, Brian Sandoval. Michele Bachmann will run as the heir to the Palin vote but won't get anywhere. Palin will probably be seen as a joke by then and the Reeps will probably have figured out that they have to run on something besides anger, fear, and resentment. Jon Huntsman and Mitch Daniels may be talked up, but they took office too early.
D - maybe Kirsten Gillibrand as VP. Most of their new governors are somewhat boring. Brian Schweitzer took office too early. I'm not seeing Andrew Cuomo.

2. If overrated means getting a lot of early buzz in 2015 and then doing nothing, it could happen to Brown if the party turns out to be totally unwilling to consider a moderate.

3. I think Schweitzer would match up well with anyone the Reeps can put up. I think he can stand up to Huntsman or Daniels on policy, and he's folksier than either of them. Against Rubio, he would likely hold most of Obama's coters and do better in rural areas.  

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Good Questions
1) Republicans - Rubio, Sandoval, Jindal, McDonnell, Portman, Toomey, Christie, and maybe Corbett. Democrats - Klobuchar, Cuomo, Hickenlooper, Warner, and possibly (hopefully) Whitehouse, Bennet, and Markell.

2) Anyone suggesting Governors Jindal and Haley, and of course the media-center/press favorites (Cuomo, Christie, and to a lesser extent McDonnell and Warner). The NY/DC folks love their locals.

3) I don't think there's much evidence that specific match-ups matter much; though sure some candidates run better than others.

[ Parent ]
Bennet was born in New Delhi
Does anyone know if he was born on American soil while there?  

24, SSP Gay Caucus Policy Committee Chair, Western Democrat; CO-05 (home), CA-14 (law school)
[ Parent ]
SF Mayor
Board of Supervisors votes 10-1 (Chris Daly only no vote) to make City Administrator Ed Lee interim mayor.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/...

And in other news, Ahnold is catching a ton of flak for commuting the sentence of the son of former assembly speaker and political ally Fabian Nunez. Nunez's son was serving 16 years in prison for his involvement in a brawl that left one person dead and another one severely injured.

http://blogs.sacbee.com/capito...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

Third Party
What Third party do you think will have the most success in future election and reasons why (can be based on 2010 results)
I
suppose Green. But I really don't think they'll do that good, maybe not even as good as Nader did in 2000. But there is some liberal discontent, very little but some, so they'll probably make third in 2012. But I don't see a third party really actually doing very well in the near future.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Green
No doubt are the Greens are big third party. But one of third parties that i am watching is the Independence Party. The Minnesota branch is doing well. But the party also has a small new york branch. I think that in 2012 a presidential candidate (Bloomberg) may try to run on this line  
[ Parent ]
I
think the chance of a Bloomberg third party bid is very low. He has denied it over and over again. Yet the media will keep the story going, they always will. Honestly Bloomberg probably wouldn't even win another term as Mayor if he could run from what I hear. His approvals are now in thirties. The IP has always been big in Minnesota since Ventura but honestly it is starting to tame down a bit. I don't think it will completely fizzle for years but I do think its passed its high. The New York IP is successful I suppose, I don't see it becoming a national party though. It wouldn't be the first time I was wrong though.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
They are not connected
The Minnesota IP has a couple people trying to take it national by helping other state groups organize, but they are part of no national organization.

The New York IP is headed by Frank MacKay. There have been lots of corruption issues in the New York IP- I once tried to write an article on the subject but found that there was too much material to describe for the time I had.

Bloomberg might be able to get the Minnesota IP's line, but he hasn't really done anything to help them- he didn't even endorse Horner. He has bought had the NY IP ballot line the last few elections.

19, Male, libertarian Republican, TX-14 and MN-04

[ Parent ]
What ever one gets the money to compete.
The best performing (at least in terms of popular vote) third party in generations was the Reform Party.  Despite Perot bizarely dropping out for a month and getting back in.  And despite the fact he ran out on the cheap.  Cheap for Perot is in the hundreds of millions which is still a lot more than any other third party has had.

So if Bloomberg runs it's him because he has billions and a willingness to spend it.

The Green Party and the Constitution Party are there in reserve if there is a catastrophic (though in all probability very temporary) split in any of the parties that causes someone high profile to run.  Nader and Buchanan and Barr showed just being well known and "respectable" isn't enough.  You'll need a real actual split and a marquee candidate.  Say Palin, Schumer, Romney.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
Libertarian
They would have a senator now if they wanted.

It is a likely phenomenon that other similar Republicans will lose primaries, and then seek another ballot line (where possible).  The most common line is the Libertarians, and the most common person seeking such a line will be a moderate-ish Republican.

[ Parent ]
The Libertarians
If for no other reason than because they are the dominant (if you can call it that) third party and that they have more of an ability to peel off people from both parties compared to the Greens, Constitution Party, etc.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Varies by state
The Vermont Progressive Party continues to have the most organizational strength. Most if not all of its legislators are fusion Progressive/Democratic office-holders, but they showed their strength in 2006 with Pollina at the top of the ticket.

The Minnesota Independence Party and the Rhode Island Moderate Party both show a lot of promise. The MNIP is very unorganized, but it has shown the ability to both recruit candidates for the top of its ticket and to retain a (limited) base between elections.

The Rhode Island Moderate Party may be one of the bigger surprises. Its gubernatorial candidate, Ken Block, cracked the high single digits despite the presence of Independent Lincoln Chafee (third party candidates get the biggest support from Independent voters). In addition, the Moderates hit double-digits in the Attorney General race.

Other strong state level third parties include Maine, Illinois, and Massachusetts and parts of Wisconsin for the Greens; Georgia, Texas, Arizona, Indiana and North Carolina for the Libertarians.

Nationally, none of them really have any big names ready to roll out. I will say the Constitution Party has done well at attracting big names to their party- Virgil Goode is now active in the national party, they got Tom Tancredo to speak to them years ago and pave the way for his brief foray as their candidate in Colorado, and they have connections to John Hostettler. Their Presidential candidate in 2008, Chuck Baldwin, had a record performance for the party despite losing their ballot line in California to a faction aligned with Alan Keyes.

19, Male, libertarian Republican, TX-14 and MN-04

[ Parent ]
RI
I believe Chris Little, the RI Moderate Party candidate for AG, actually won one town (South Kingstown) and came in 2nd in some others. My mom voted for him after hearing an interview with him on NPR. I might have voted for him but I was afraid of the spoiler effect.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
The interesting thing about third parties to me
is that while there is a third party that clearly runs to the left of the Democrats on pretty much every issue (Greens), there is no party that is directly to the right of the GOP in the same way. The Libertarians are, well, libertarian, and the Constitution party is more paleoconservative/isolationist, opposing things like Iraq/Afghanistan and NAFTA.

Anyway, if we're talking third parties I'm not sure, but I think that among third party candidates Ron Paul could probably do the best in 2012. If the GOP nominates Huckabee, Romney, or Gingrich, I could see a Ron Paul candidacy getting 1-2% of the vote, similar to what Nader got in 2000.  

Male, VA-08

[ Parent ]
I don't think it's physically possible to run to the right
of the current Republican party. Most people in the Democratic party are centrist and would be considered center-right in most European countries so there's clearly room to the Democrat's left, while there isn't any on the GOP's right. The only reason a right-wing third party has to form is that they have a specific issue difference with the party , in that it's not a clear left-right spectrum on certain issues, like NAFTA, so the party doesn't ran to the "right" of the GOP, they're running on their version of what being conservative is.(if that makes any sense)  
[ Parent ]
Weekly Open Thread Question.
I did a variation of this activity before but that was with a different Congress so lets do it again. Look at all the current officeholder across the  US pick your choice to be your Governor, 2 Senators and Congressman. To make it easier lets say all newly elected Governors are now in office.  

Mine:
Senators
Michael Bennet- he's a fave of my mine who I think will be long serving and powerful. Chuck Schumer- I want the clout and I like him.
Congressman
John Yarmuth. He's a nice guy and a good representative. I've met him and I know he'd serve me well in Congress.
Governor
John Hickenlooper- I mentioned this already but he is my fave of the cycle. I think he's a good executive who will think out of the box and be a real problem solver. That's what I would want in my Governor.
 

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

My picks
Senate: Scott Brown--he represents me now and I've generally been happy with what he's done.
Bob Corker--underrated as a problem solver. He's not afraid to work with Democrats and he comes off as a reasonable adult when he speaks. (Yes, that's actually a compliment nowadays.)

House: Jeff Flake--He's more conservative than me but I just like how principled and anti-corruption he is.

Governor: No one jumps out.....maybe Daniels? I was impressed by Scott Walker this year but it's too early to tell if he's going to be an effective governor.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
I just moved to Colorado for college.
Feels interesting to be represented by 2 dems senators and a dem governor and a dem member of congress for the first time ever I think haha. I'm happy with Udall, Bennet and Hickenlooper there all a little to the right of me but they all seem like excellent public servants. I'm also happy to have Polis as a congressman. better then anything I could hope for back home in FL-15.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
I graduated from college in CO in 2008, though now I'm in CA for law school
I've worked for each of their campaigns, and am thrilled with all 3 of them. There are a ton of great Dems around (like Treas. Kennedy, who lost her race in the wave, and a number of State Reps. and Sens.) to take over if any of them decide to leave office.

Best part is that Bennet is only 46. Udall is 60, still young-ish for a Senator, and Hick is 58.

If Denver is smart and elects Michael Hancock it's next mayor, we'll really have an amazing set of folks governing most of Colorado.  

24, SSP Gay Caucus Policy Committee Chair, Western Democrat; CO-05 (home), CA-14 (law school)

[ Parent ]
If you don't
mind me asking, which school do you go to?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I went to Colorado College
But now am a first-year student at Stanford Law.  

24, SSP Gay Caucus Policy Committee Chair, Western Democrat; CO-05 (home), CA-14 (law school)
[ Parent ]
Oh, that dump?
Seriously now, that's impressive man. I'm in the process of applying, again, to school. I was supposed to be in school this year, but the financial aid offer was shitty and the school wasn't nearly good enough to justify the cost. Since I basically have to rework my admissions statement but have everything else ready to go, I figure that if I can get my applications out soon, I should have more options than I did last year. I'm just bummed because my LSAT score was exactly the same was it was last December. It wasn't awful, but I made dumb mistakes and could easily have scored higher. I feel like the Dan Seals or Dino Rossi of the LSAT world. It sucks.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Thanks, and best of luck!
Don't want to derail too much (apologies mods), but the LSAT is fickle. Kick ass on the rest of the app and it'll matter much less. More swingnuts in law school is a good thing, so I'll be pulling for you!

24, SSP Gay Caucus Policy Committee Chair, Western Democrat; CO-05 (home), CA-14 (law school)
[ Parent ]
I'm trying to
find a school that doesn't live or die by the numbers. I mean, it's important to all of them, but I figure that as long as you fall somewhere in the range for the LSAT, and if they actually read all applications like they say they do, I have a chance to come through. Supposedly, Iowa has a numbers-plus policy, and since it looks like they get a smaller number of applicants and accept more of those applicants, it's probably my best bet at a higher-ranked school. I've considered flying to the school and trying to hand an admissions representative a copy of my application just to give an indication of how much I'd like to go there. If I could do it in a matter of a day and it wouldn't cost too much, I might actually do it. What's the worst that happens? I waste some money?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Answer
2 senators: Bernie Sanders, Al Franken

Both highly principled leftists who really care about people and act accordingly.

Governor: Dunno, really

Representative: I'm thinking Anthony Weiner, even though I don't like his knee-jerk support for hawkish Israeli policies. I also like Jerry Nadler on most things, with the very large exception of Wall St. I agree with Kucinich on almost every policy question but don't know what his constituent services are like.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Mine.
Senators: Schumer and Boxer - I like politicians that are fighters and not afraid to stand up for what they believe in

Congresswoman: Gabrielle Giffords - I think she'd serve me well.

Governor: Jerry Brown - I like politicians that talk the talk and walk the walk, like Brown when it comes to austerity, like renting an apartment instead of using the Governor's mansion, and driving to work in his own car instead of a state car. He did it before, and from what I've seen, he's going to do it again.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

[ Parent ]
Picks
Congressman- Ron Paul. He is my current Representative and I am pretty satisfied.

Senator 1- Rand Paul. Yeah, he screwed up on the Maddow interview and I have a few small bones to pick but overall I think he has some good ideas for the Senate (like giving moderate GOPers the political cover to support defense cuts)
Senator 2- I may have considered Russ Feingold before he lost, but I am hopeful for Mike Lee.

Governor- Mitch Daniels. I like his style and like what he has done with Indiana in general.

19, Male, libertarian Republican, TX-14 and MN-04

[ Parent ]
You can still consider Feingold.
If Kohl retires, I think Feingold could run (and I would support it wholeheartedly).

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Well, let's see
Sens. Ron Wyden and Jeff Merkley, the best senatorial duo in the country as far as I'm concerned.

Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, with Rep. Yarmuth as a very close runner-up. Already missing Perriello and Kagen, though.

Gov. Lincoln Chafee, with Gov. Schweitzer as a close second. Pretty happy with Gov. O'Malley though, all told. Govs.-elect Kitzhaber and Hickenlooper are other favorites from this cycle.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
I miss Periello too
It's sooooooooo sad that he lost, and he can probably never run again in the 5th, considering split control in VA will mean an incumbent protection map. Charlotesville will probably be removed from the 5th to protect Hurt and that's Periello's base and home town.

god bless you Tom Periello

19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem

[ Parent ]
ok
Governor: Mitch Daniels, given that he'd be working with the Dem-controlled CA legislature.

Senate: Ron Wyden is da man. He's a policy wonk, a pragmatist, doesn't take anything personally or make anything personal, and he's always looking to make deals. For the other senator, maybe Richard Lugar who is the best of the bunch on foreign policy even though he's useless on most domestic issues. Or John Kerry, who I think is vastly underrated.

Congress: No one comes to mind. The ones who seem closest to me politically (Adam Smith, Ed Perlmutter, etc) haven't done anything special.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Mine
Gov: Jerry Brown, with Hickenlooper a close second. In the end I just feel Brown has more experience, though I like Hickenlooper a lot.
Sen: Ron Wyden and Kirsten Gillibrand
Rep: Xavier Becerra- I like him, and I think he is on track to become speaker of the house someday, obviously bringing a lot of clout to my district
 

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
My Answers
Senator: I'd be hard-pressed to come up with a pair that I liked more than Klobuchar and Franken.

Governor: Call me crazy, but I have high hopes for Governor Dayton right here in Minnesota.

House: I really like Rep. Ellison, and I'm hoping I might get redistricted into having him as my Congressman.

[ Parent ]
Colorado-biased
Senate:

Gillibrand has been a firebrand on gay issues (and I kind of like the wordplay that makes for a future run), and seems to be the most willing person in the US Senate to stick her neck out for us as a community. Politically, she's a little to the left of me, but I'm a huge fan.

Klobuchar is wildly popular, and has a tempered populist streak that I like.

If I had to pick an existing delegation, it'd be either Colorado (Bennet/Udall, both my former Senators) or Oregon (Merkley/Wyden)

Governor:

I've watched John Hickenlooper run Denver. I think he'll be fantastic as CO Governor. Schweitzer is more folksy, but I'm closer to Hick on policy. Watching those two run for the White House together would be hilarious and substantive, and I honestly don't know of two people who could beat them.

Congressperson:

A few months ago it would've been Tom Perriello, but since he lost I should pick someone still around. I'll say Jared Polis.

I guess I think that the citizens of Boulder, CO have the best representation in the nation right now, on balance.  

24, SSP Gay Caucus Policy Committee Chair, Western Democrat; CO-05 (home), CA-14 (law school)

[ Parent ]
Feeling good about Florida US house races in 12.
Both Allen West and David Herrera seem like they are ripe for the picking. Also no matter how republican the legislature is if they have to follow the guidelines put out by the amendment that won in 10 there is no way that the delegation will get more republican. I'd expect a dem seat out of central florida and if were lucky maybe one more out of the tampa/st. pete area and maybe one out of Tallahassee. I don't want to perdict south florida as the map is so fucked up there but it could be a gold mine depending on how the south florida cuban districts are drawn.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
Those two are prime targets.
It should be quite a bit easier to defeat a serial sleaze and a disgraced, dismissed war criminal in a presidential year.  Even more so if Scott is as embarrassing as he is indicating he will be.

But with those guidelines, the next gerrymander will be more sensible (like Michigan) and create more opportunities.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
Also
it's likely FL-22 will get altered to be more compact and less gerrymandered than it is now.  That may draw in some of the AA parts of FL-23.  West will surely be sweating bullets once the gerrymander that was made to protect E. Clay Shaw is relaxed.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Will you just look at it:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F...

That's not going to survive these new rules.  Although I haven't read them, I read their key points.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
yeah FL-22 is probably the most fucked up district in the country
I'm certain West is gone but I still think he will run for some  district and get killed there or may ran an unwinnable campaign against Bill Nelson.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
West, the new Katherine Harris!
Please please please!

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Ah, just read up.
Props 5&6 are the ones that passed (one affects state leg. redistricting, the other affects US Congress. redistricting).

http://www.collinscenter.org/p...

Key:

According to FairDistrictsFlorida.org, these amendments would establish easily understandable, non-partisan standards in creating legislative and congressional district boundaries. While protecting minority voting rights, the standards would prohibit drawing district lines to favor or disfavor any incumbent or political party. Districts would have to be compact and utilize existing political and geographical boundaries. In other words, natural competitiveness and fairness would be required.

See, it upholds VRA, so Brown need not worry.

These rules seem stronger than I initially thought.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
The key though is whether the 18th/21st/25th survive
The 18th gave allready gave Obama a narrow majority and the other two are just barely behind. oddly enough the 25th looks the most normal but lucky for us Herrea represents it. if these three have to be axed then it could go dem as both monroe and miami dade are obviously dem counties.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Sorry to be picky, but
It's Rivera.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Right haha I don't know this freshmen class at all at least namewise


CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Even though
you are going to college in CO, will you stay registered to vote in FL?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Likely will vote in CO for residency/financial reasons.
But i'll keep a close tab on Florida politics. from a purely political point of view idk how i'd vote I guess depends how redistricting goes in FL and how endangered Bill Nelson was/ how Obama was holding up in CO/FL.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
The Cuban districts aren't going anywhere
They're protected by the VRA, and federal law trumps state law.
[ Parent ]
Governor scott (almost want to puke typing that)
I agree will also play a role in screwing up the house races for the GOP.

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Are we sure voters who could vote for a repulsive
alleged (or was he convicted? I forget) felon will be swayed by how he performs in office?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
His company admitted to the felonies.
Scott himself was never convicted IIRC.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Crappy 2010 electorate.
a better electorate with 2 shitty years of Scott will be a liability.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Bob Dole back at Walter Reed Hospital.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories...

They won't say why, but I don't feel good about this.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

I hope Bob Dole recovers quickly and fully
Bob Dole doesn't like it when Bob Dole gets sick, and neither do I.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
NV-Sen: Lowden might run (?!)
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

Um, interesting, but I doubt that the party would consider her to be a first tier choice.  She let herself get backed into a corner and made into a laughingstock last year, spoiling what they thought was a sure thing.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

But, really, what are the odds both Ensign AND Heller pass here?
Not too high, methinks. I do think Lowden has a future in Nevada politics, though.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
IA-03, IA-04
Steve King got passed over for a subcommittee chairmanship and thinks Boehner influenced that decision, which has me wondering whether Latham may want to run in the new IA-04 after all. If he beat King in the primary, it would be smooth sailing.
I don't see your thread of logic.
But then again, I know little of IA stuff.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Latham and Boehner are very close friends
and have been for more than a decade. I have been assuming Latham would run in IA-03, because the GOP primary electorate in IA-04 probably prefers the outspoken King. But now King looks really stupid (passed over for a subcommittee chairmanship after four years as the ranking member of that subcommittee), while Latham is chairing an Appropriations subcommittee. Helps Latham make a case for keeping him in Congress instead of King, if it comes to that.

Maybe Latham wants to keep his options open--facing off against King in a primary would be risky, but if he won it would be an automatic win in the general. In IA-03, Latham would have a clear path to the nomination but has to win a new district centered in Polk County (Des Moines area), which Latham's never represented before.

If I were Boehner and wanted to help Latham position himself, taking King down a peg would be a good way to go.

[ Parent ]
That can mean

That can mean the republicans find a IA-03/IA-05 merge including Boswell and King in the same district. They can give some preference?

[ Parent ]
nonpartisan commission draws map
which can be rejected by either the GOP-controlled Iowa House or the Dem-controlled Iowa Senate.

Boswell was thrown into King's district in 2001 redistricting, so he moved to Des Moines (Polk County) to run in new IA-03 instead.

If there is one big northwest/north-central Iowa district and one big southwest/Polk County Iowa district, I think Latham would want to run in the NW district, even if that meant running against King in the primary.

[ Parent ]
Help?
Not sure if this is the right place to ask this, but I can't figure this out... I'm new here, and I have a map for PA that I'd like to post in a diary, but I can't figure out for the life of me how to post a diary. Help?

Also, how do you get your CD, etc. to show up in comments?

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)

Welcome!
You can do both by using the links on the right side of the screen. To post a diary, click on "New Diary" and follow the instructions there. If you're going to post pictures, you'll need to first upload them to a photobucket or flickr account and then write out links to them.

To put your CD in your signature, click on "shamlet's Page" and then click on "Profile." There will be a signature box on that page where you can write in your CD or whatever else you like.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
You can post diaries
beginning a week after you registered.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Weekend Question
What's your favorite Senate duo? Doesn't necessarily have to be chosen by how well they work together, just what state you think has the best two senators.

For my money I say New York, but Oregon, Minnesota, and Colorado are close. Somewhere behind them is California and New Mexico.

Schumer is a tough Democrat, and we have very few of those. He's unabashedly liberal and not afraid to throw punches. I don't know if his overall aggressiveness is a detriment to the national conversation or not, but, with the other side constantly lobbing bombs, it's good to know we've got someone in a leadership position sending them back.

I was an early and avid supporter of Gillibrand. I must have signed five letters petitioning Gov. Patterson to appoint her to Clinton's seat. She's been in the Senate only two years and has already made a huge name for herself. Taking the lead on important issues like DADT repeal and 9/11 responders bill, she has consistently proven that freshmen senators don't have to sit quietly in the back. Also, she's a complete policy wonk from what I hear. I like to know there are senators actually reading the bills they vote on thoroughly.

Anyone else?

NY-01/NY-19

Some duos that come to mind
Vermont - Sanders and Leahy
Minnesota - Franken and Klobuchar

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Oregon
Followed by Minnesota, then Colorado.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Rhode Island is pretty good
Then after that Oregon and New York

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
I Agree
Has to be Rhode Island, though I like Minnesota a lot too.
[ Parent ]
Minnesota just for Amy Klobuchar. Al Franken is an
added bonus.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Oregon
would be my favorite even if their senators were Ron Wyden and a mechanical bull. Merkley seems pretty good in his own right.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
I'd take a mechanical bull as one of my senators any day


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
It would be a big improvement for Oklahoma, for one
Heck, I'd consider voting for Palin/Mechanical Bull 2012!

No wait, no I wouldn't.

But I do think I've found my new favorite alternative to the Lizard People when writing in names for races where I hate all the candidates.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Tennessee
Corker and Alexander are both thinking conservatives who are unafraid to cross the line on key issues. There's no perfect delegation for me but they stand out. I've always liked the Texas duo as well.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
I'm gonna agree with TN
AZ was good before 2009 too.  
[ Parent ]
before 2009?
you mean before McCain Vista came out?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Yes
I do agree with his policy stances more now (except for DADT) but I think he has been worse senator now than he was then, when he was one of the best Senators.  
[ Parent ]
As a Dem
I also really like the Tennessee Sens. Corker especially seems like a pragmatic and articulate guy who isn't afraid to work with the Dems.  

19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem
[ Parent ]
Minnesota for sure
Klobuchar's definitely my favorite senator, and I respect Franken, too. New Mexico's a very close second though. Next would be Rhode Island, followed by New York (especially Schumer).

I admit, I also have a soft spot for the Hawaiian Dans, but mostly because they're from my favorite state. I  had the chance to meet Akaka in person and he's a really friendly guy. Even though he didn't know me, he greeted me with a hug instead of a handshake...gotta love the Aloha way of living.  

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)

[ Parent ]
Hawaii's one of my favorites also.
And long before I had even heard "Obama".

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Gabrielle Giffords shot
Horrible news out of Arizona:

U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords of Arizona was shot outside a grocery store in Tucson while holding a public event, an eyewitness reported Saturday.

Giffords, who was re-elected to her third term in November, was hosting her first "Congress on Your Corner" event at the Safeway in northwest Tucson when a gunman ran up and started shooting. At least five other people, including members of her staff, were hurt, according to Peter Michaels, news director of Arizona Public Media.


Oh sh!t!!!!
I pray she's alright.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Looks bad
They're saying it's a headshot at point-blank range

http://tucsoncitizen.com/three...

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
Please, God, no! I hope not!


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
When I saw her name trending on Twitter, I knew it was something bad
I hope she's all right.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
Gabrielle Giffords
was shot today: http://www.npr.org/2011/01/08/...

Let's pray for the best.  

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

three things
1. so glad gabby survived. rip to the others

2. james, your caption for the song is eerie as hell

3. frm rep. william walsh, father of jim walsh, died at 98.

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

Chicago-Mayor: Luis Gutierrez backs Chico
http://www.nbcchicago.com/blog...

The problem is, if you buy the last poll, Del Valle could drop out, leaving Chico to consolidate the Hispanic vote...and Chico would still trail Moseley Braun by a decent margin. The question isn't WHO will be Emanuel's run-off opponent. It's WHETHER Emanuel crosses the run-off mark to begin with.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Am I wrong in thinking
Rahm wins enough Hispanics in a CMB runoff and enough AA voters in a Chico runoff for him to win easily?
[ Parent ]
I think that's about right
My hunch is the racial breakdowns in the hypothetical run-offs would look something like...

Whites - Emanuel: 70, Moseley Braun: 30
Blacks - Emanuel: 35, Moseley Braun: 65
Hispanics - Emanuel: 55, Moseley Braun: 45

Whites - Emanuel: 60, Chico: 40
Blacks - Emanuel: 75, Chico: 25
Hispanics - Emanuel: 25, Chico: 75

It's a super-shaky voter model, especially since I'm not taking into account Asians (who'll compose of 3-5% of the vote, methinks), but if I went with a 40/40/20 white-black-Hispanic model, that'd give Emanuel a 53-47 lead over Moseley Braun and a 59-41 margin over Chico.


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Redistricting North Carolina

I want not to publish maps what help to the republicans making GOP gerrymanders but after look to this state these are my conclussions.

- I think they will find safe districts with enough high R+ rating because many democrats from NC are able for win in R+low districts.

- The republicans can not go more far than a 8R-1S-4D model without begin to endanger some of the republican districts. One D+ less would mean like three swing more. North Carolina is enough democrat and the democrats from North Carolina are enough moderate to conservative for make not viable other model more favorable for the republicans.

- Then, they are not reason for think G Butterfield, G Price, M Watt and M Miller are in risk. The republicans can put someone out of his district (Price or Miller) but this would have not big sense since an overall point.

- M McIntyre is in a good geographical position for keep his district as swing with R+low rating. In his area I was able to draw a 58% Obama district (but we will see not that). They are not chance for put him in a R+10 district without begin to endanger other neighbor republican seats. I was not able for put all the area in R+10 districts, and M McIntyre is able for win R+5 even in time of republican wave.

- H Shuler and L Kissell have high chance of lost his current districts, but still they can fight in his new district, despite they must run against some republican incumbent, or despite they need to move for run in some open seat.

I think 9R-4D is probably the most likely course
you can make 9 districts with PVIs of R+8 or more, including giving Shuler a much harder (R+12-13) district. It's not possible to go 10-3 without endangering Republican seats, but 9-4 is. I think they're going draw McIntyre and Kissell together into a 60% Obama seat (I think it might actually be a VRA district thanks to the Lumbee population). Miller and Price will likely wind up in a white, 70% Obama district from Durham to the Triad.

Once I can start posting diaries, I have a map for this, but it basically involves pushing the 1st into Raleigh, the 4th into the Triad, collapsing the 12th into just Charlotte, and rejiggering the 7th and 8th into a D+7 seat. That opens up 2 new seats: 1 centered on Asheboro and nibbling around the edges of the Triad and Triangle (about R+12) and one around Wilmington (about R+10).

Don't forget, NC is the single best opportunity for agressive R gerrymandering (it's the only state Republicans control where they have real ability to pick up multiple seats) so I don't see any reason why they wouldn't go all out, like the Dems will do in IL, for example.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)

[ Parent ]
McIntyre wins R+5 in a year of republican wave

do you think a R+8 is enough for defeat him? I think not. I think it is not enough. Not important if Kissell is inside the district or not.

Many democrats from North Carolina would be interested in some R+8 districts.

[ Parent ]
the R+8 district I have in my map
belongs to Walter Jones. Not sure he'd like that, but it's enough to keep him safe and I think it's the only decent way to make a secure 9-4 map. Most of the others are at least R+10 and closer to R+12.

And McIntyre would be put in the 4th Dem vote sink. He'd probably beat Kissell in a primary and get a very secure D+7ish seat. So it wouldn't be smart to move in order to run in a R+10 district.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)

[ Parent ]
This is just what I was telling

It is very difficult to attack both Kissell and McIntyre at same time, and it is very difficult to have less than four D+ districts.

Your model what to concede not a clearly swing district but that mean the republicans would endanger some other seats.

I think W Jones (NC-03) would feel nervous in a R+8 district. I would not give him as safe. He comes from a R+16 district. It would be not difficult define him as too much to the right.

Do you have some OPEN seat under R+10? This would be in risk. Some other incumbents? would be too in risk in a good year for the democrats.

I other state I would agree about a R+8 seat as safe, but not for North Carolina. There they are still enough conservative democrats for endanger it.

[ Parent ]
In other state... )

[ Parent ]
I'll post this map once my 1-week wait time to post diaries is up
Jones is pretty darn entrenched in Eastern NC, and I find it very hard to believe he won't have a R+8 district that stongly resembles his current one for as long as he wants it. Plus I kept NE NC in his district, which I think is getting more Republican thanks to Tidewater exurban growth.

My OPEN seats are R+10 in Wilmington, and R+12 in the central part of the state. The fact is that if you take out 4 solid Dem vote sinks, the statewide average is 58-41 McCain.

Another thing to consider about 2012 is that while, yes, Obama will be on the ballot, Bev Purdue will also be there. Unless she turns things around, that's liable to be a significant drag on the rest of the Dem ticket, especially in the more conservative areas.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)

[ Parent ]
I will see

with interest.

[ Parent ]
TX-Sen: Hutchison at 46/26 approval, but only 56% among Republicans
http://www.dallasnews.com/shar...

Not necessarily as bad as I would've thought. No doubt she'd steamroll through a general election, but at least she's above 50% with a very conservative state GOP.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

I wonder about
that. She'd certainly be the favorite, but numbers like that make me wonder if there's a bigger opening than even I thought. Not a huge one, of course, but enough that the Democrats should have all of the pieces in place so that they can take advantage of a good situation.

I think that opening gets a lot bigger if there's a third party ticket trying to get votes from the right. If it's not an absolutely awful year for Democrats and the candidate isn't terrible, the floor for the Democrat is probably about 43 to 44 percent. A right-wing third party candidate that can get four to six percent could, or maybe even less, could easily spur the Democrats to work to get those extra voters to the polls. In that situiation, getting 47 or 48 percent of the vote would probably be enough to win.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
boston mayor Menino (D) says brown unbeatable
also, the sox will never win, the war with King George III will never succeed and no one in boston will ever drive well (one out of four i guess).

http://politicalwire.com/archi...

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

What idiot! I mean genius....
Yeah that's what I meant.... Who in their right mind would say something like this publicly. Whether it's true or not, it's stupid. Now I really want Vickie Kennedy too run.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Politicians make lousy pundits

[ Parent ]
And the big dig came in under bduegt lol

[ Parent ]
He was actually trying to say
"someone better turn on the heat in here", but there were new reporters on the job that weren't used to his mumbling.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)
[ Parent ]
Maybe
my sarcasm meter is off today, but I am not sure if you are kidding.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I was kidding
But that's certainly something I could see happening.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)
[ Parent ]
Marco Rubio won't run for president in '12, doesn't want VP slot either
Admirable if true
And I tend to think it is.  At least for 2012.
[ Parent ]
Senate landscape in 2012
Excellent piece from Nathan Gonzales. Early looks can be deceiving.

http://rothenbergpoliticalrepo...

I don't remember
who wrote it in The New Republic, so I am not going to look for it, but I remember reading an article whose first line was something like, "The Democrats are poised to lose control of the Senate in 2012." I realize that those words aren't going to have an effect on any race, particularly one is that is two years away, but it's representative of a mindset that is supremely irritating.

Anyway, the takeaway from that article is, We don't know. That's right, I think. I have no doubt that the Republicans will try to run up the totals, even in states where the Democrats shouldn't have any trouble keeping the seat, like Minnesota, which is why I think the Democrats need to have an equally expansive and aggressive mindset.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
IA-Pres: Huckabee up 22-21-13 over Romney, Palin
Unlike Romney's early polling lead in 2008, Huckabee's lead could hold up......
Huckabee actually won the state, and convincingly, last time, and the evangelical-heavy Iowa GOP Caucus voters picked him without caring about electability.

So he could repeat there, if he runs.

But he's got little else after that.  South Carolina is winnable, Florida has enough fundies to get him a high finish even if not likely a win, and of course he did well across the South last time and would do so again.

But Huckabee is one guy who benefits greatly from the GOP moving to proportional allocation of delegates, and away from winner-take-all states.  Huckabee will simply win more delegates and stay in the game longer this way.  There are not many states he can win, but there are a LOT where he can finish in 2nd or 3rd.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Still
Second and thirds won't be enough if Romney is winning the big blue states a la McCain. I still peg Mitt as the favorite but that probably depends on a big field plus him finding a way to solve his HCR problem.
[ Parent ]
Everyone won't run though
These horseraces simply have too many candidates in their field polls (not jsut this one but most we've seen)

So we have to see who actually runs and where their supporters go.  For instance Mitch Daniels supporters might be more liekly to go Romney, but Gingrich's or Palin's might be more likely to go to Huckabee.  

I don't expect Palin to run (she gets too much attention running around complaining) and she now has all the money she needs...who needs the responsibility of governing when you can just travel around giving crazy speeches.

I do expect the GOP primaries to be fun, I just think there will be a lot fewer top-tier candidates than most of these polls are testing, which makes them fairly useless.

[ Parent ]
I don't think Romney has any real shot because...
...of RomneyCare.  I think that prevents him to raising his ceiling, which is low to begin with as 2008 already proved.

Romney's support was so shallow in 2008 that a very weakened McCain was able to supplant him as the establishment choice, an identity that McCain rode to the nomination.

Nothing has happened since then to make Romney's support any deeper or broader now, and RomneyCare makes it impossible for him to broaden it going forward.  All it takes to knock him out is for at least one other establishmentarian with fundraising skills to run, and Romney will get shunted aside again.

In all seriousness, I expect Tim Pawlenty to outperform Romney in the caucuses and primaries.  And if not Pawlenty, it will be Daniels or Thune or someone else from the establshment camp.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
From what I can tell
They all have big problems with the base one way or another. Look how weak McCain looked at one point yet he still pulled it out because of the split field. Same could happen again.
[ Parent ]
I think
that is one of the really underreported aspects of the 2012 race. Nobody can be everything to everyone, so there's always some tension between different segments of each party, but I'm honestly not sure when there's been a group of candidates that had so little appeal to other groups within the party. Perhaps a bridge or two can be built so that someone like Romney or Huckabee can unite the party, but I am not sure. As far as I can tell, the best bests in bringing the party together are maybe Pawlenty and Thune.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
McCain benefited from winner-take-all states which is gone now......
McCain would have had a much tougher slog under proportional allocation, which is what they're doing next year.  McCain was winning states with a plurlality in the 30s, and not winning everywhere anyway.  But he was racking up monopolies of delegates in state after state that way, and that also fueled the media narrative that focused entirely on winning states without regard to margin.  With proportional allocation, McCain would have faced a drawn out battle not unlike Obama's long battle against Hillary.

That's why I discuss it as a major problem for Romney that he has a low ceiling.  In winner-take-all, if he can win 25-30% in a split field in state after state, he's the nominee.  In proportional allocation, the battle gets strung out, and he easily gets supplanted if the opposition factions see candidates drop out and unification against a single anti-Romney candidate.  Or, a large fraction of the establishment GOP or some combination of establishmentarians and teabaggers can form a bloc that nominates a non-teabagger or "hybrid" candidate who can supplant Romney.  Either way, all this means there are that many more ways for Romney to lose.

And I think RomneyCare ultimately is Romney's fatal political wound, because not only does it virtually ensure he can't grow his support over last time, it creates a strong possibility, even likelihood, that some of his past support leaves up right out of the gate.  Yes RomneyCare predated 2008, but no one cared until now.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I thought the same in 2008
Huckabee is very liekable on camera (regardless of views even) and appeals to decent sized wing of the GOP.  

Proportional allocation of delegates really helps him and hurts some of the others.

In 2012, if he gets a campaign team that's more tactical, he could sneak in make it a real race.  In a 2 person race against some of the supposed top tier candidates, he could make it a compelling race.

[ Parent ]
Another
24-19-11. Thought Huck would be stronger than that actually.

http://www.gop12.com/2011/01/2...

[ Parent ]
He needs to show he can raise money
His fundraising last time was terrible.  I think he's got a shot to be a really serious candidate again, but is going to have to have tens of millions in resources to do so.
[ Parent ]
He also raised taxes in Arkansas
That could end up being as big a liability with the Tea Party folk as Romneycare.
[ Parent ]
And
his own Willie Horton incident, pardoning a rapist who went on to commit another rape/murder in MO.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 169 comments

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

Publisher: DavidNYC

Senior Editor: James L.

Senior Editor: Crisitunity

Contributing Editor: Jeffmd

Search the SSP archives:

Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

SSP Resources

Presidential Vote by CD

SSP Document Collection

Race Tracker Wiki

Dave's Redistricting App

Blogroll

Daily Kos Elections
DemConWatch
Five Thirty Eight
Governing
Hotline On Call
Political Wire
Pollster.com
Prop*50
Public Policy Polling
The Thicket
Powered by: SoapBlox