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SSP Daily Digest: 1/6

by: Crisitunity

Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 4:27 PM EST


NE-Sen: After a few months in exploratory committee purgatory (and after screwing up many of the documents associated with said committee), Republican AG Jon Bruning has made it official. He's now upgraded to Candidate, against Ben Nelson in the 2012 Senate race.

TX-Sen: Local insiders seem to think that Kay Bailey Hutchison is increasingly moving toward another run for Senate in 2012 (after having postponed her resignation a number of times amidst the gubernatorial race, and then having dropped the subject altogether). That speculation seems based mostly on her sheer silence on the issue, though.

IA-Gov: On his way out the door, outgoing Gov. Chet Culver talked up state Sen. majority leader Mike Gronstal as a possible 2014 gubernatorial candidate for the Dems. Culver said Gronstal won't suffer for his reluctance to put gay marriage up for a statewide vote, which seems to be one of the state's big flashpoints right now.

WA-Gov, WA-08: This is very unexpected, considering that GOP AG Rob McKenna has had the 2012 gubernatorial nomination staked out for about six years now, but Rep. Dave Reichert is publicly expressing some (or at least not ruling out) interest in a gubernatorial run (a race he'd been encouraged to run in 2004 back when he was King Co. Sheriff, although he ran for House instead). I'm sure local GOPers would prefer he run for Senate, where no viable GOP nominee seems to be on the horizon, rather than creating a fractious gubernatorial primary that might hobble their best shot in decades at winning the governorship. Actually, I'm sure they'd prefer he continue to hold down WA-08 rather than open up the 8th while embarking on a fool's errand against Maria Cantwell, and with redistricting likely to give him a safer district in Seattle's southeastern exurbs while opening up a solid-blue WA-10 on the true Eastside, that's probably what he'll keep on doing.

CO-03: New Gov. John Hickenlooper just appointed recently-defeated Rep. John Salazar as the state's agriculture commissioner. Salazar has already said he was open to a rematch with Scott Tipton; the question is whether this makes a rematch less likely or if it's designed to keep him in the public spotlight. (Speaking of Hickenlooper, if you haven't read the NYT Magazine section's long profile of him, it's worth a read.)

FL-25: Add one more mysterious bit of financial information to the mounting pile of sleaze that's engulfing David Rivera in his first week on the job: he sold a condominium to his mother's marketing company (the same company that's under criminal investigation for its relationship to the Flagler Dog Track) in November, shortly before he paid off $137K in undisclosed loans... also to that same marketing company.

IA-03: Buried in an article on the Iowa redistricting conundrum, which will see the state compacted to four House districts, is an important piece of unexpected news: septuagenarian Democratic Rep. Leonard Boswell, who's been a prime candidate for retirement for a number of cycles now, tells Roll Call that he will be running again in 2012, regardless of what district he gets stuck into. Tom Latham, Bruce Braley, and Dave Loebsack all plan to "plow ahead" as well; only Steve King didn't comment, although his district, by virtue of geography (having the state's western half pretty much to itself) seems least likely to get messed with. A collision between Des Moines-based Boswell and Ames-based GOPer Latham seems likeliest to me, but with a commission making the decisions, almost any configuration seems possible.

NC-07: Rep. Mike McIntyre -- already in the news today as one of only two Dems who voted against HCR to also say that he'd go ahead and support Republican repeal efforts -- is now about to draw a Democratic primary challenger from the left, although one who seems kind of on the Some Dude end of the spectrum. Business counselor Del Pietro says he'll take on McIntyre.

California: This piece is mostly about House redistricting in the Golden State, but has some thoughts about potential retirements too, given the possibility that redistricting via commission may result in less incumbent protection and various House members getting stuck together (and also given the advanced age of many of California's long-timers). Jerry Lewis and Pete Stark are listed as most noteworthy possibilities, along with Elton Gallegly (who's waffled about retirement before), Lois Capps, Gary Miller, and Howard Berman... and Bob Filner is mentioned as a possible San Diego mayor candidate in 2012.

House: This Roll Call piece is mostly a grab-bag of vague quotes and speculation (of course, what article in the Beltway press isn't), but it does do some useful handicapping on which sought-after House members are likely or unlikely to make the jump to running for Senate in 2012. New York's Peter King says "I really don't expect it," Pennsylvania's Charlie Dent says he hasn't "been actively pursuing it," and Ohio's Jim Jordan is "leaning against it." Wisconsin's Paul Ryan didn't comment, but has repeatedly said he isn't looking for higher office anytime soon (and here's some further confirmation on that from today), while Florida's Connie Mack IV seems to be moving definitely moving in a Senate direction and Montana's Denny Rehberg remains studiously vague.

DCCC: DCCC head Steve Israel announced his team of lieutenants for the 2012 cycle, which includes the two other likeliest chairs who got passed over, Joseph Crowley (in charge of fundraising) and Debbie Wasserman Schultz (incumbent retention and redistricting). Also on board are Allyson Schwartz (recruitment), Keith Ellison (community partnerships), and Puerto Rico's Pedro Pierluisi (constituency mobilization).

Mayors: State Sen. Anthony Hardy Williams (last seen barely hitting the double-digits in the Democratic gubernatorial primary) has a new gig in mind: he's publicly expressing his interest in running for Philadelphia mayor, one of the many mayoral races up in November. The only other person to have actively looked into challenging fairly-popular incumbent Michael Nutter is wealthy businessman Tom Knox, who also made a brief appearance in last year's governor's race Dem primary.

Twitter: We made it over the 4,000 mark on Twitter; thanks to all our new followers. We're still taking new applications, though, so we encourage any other fans of microscopic bits of political wisdom to sign on, too.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 1/6
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IA-03
A lot of people here expect Christie Vilsack or some other Democrat to run even if Boswell doesn't retire. Vilsack has been fairly open about having political ambitions and a "legislative" personality. But Tom Harkin is headlining a fundraiser for Boswell in Des Moines tomorrow.

Latham
Is there a possibility that if he ends up with King or some other difficult scenario that he retires and tries to run for Harkin's seat in 2014?

20, Ind, Fl-13 & Fl-6 (college)

[ Parent ]
He'd be kinda old
At 66.  

[ Parent ]
plus, he seems to like being in the House
He's a low-key guy who doesn't like the spotlight. He's got a great smoking buddy in John Boehner and a nice seat on Appropriations--why give that up if he doesn't have to?

[ Parent ]
I believe he will move
if Story County isn't put into the same district as Polk County. Latham keeps his head down and therefore isn't a conservative hero like Steve "10 Worst" King. I don't think Latham wants to be in a Republican primary against King. He would rather take his chances in a new IA-03. Most of the population growth in Polk County has been in GOP-leaning suburban areas, and Latham has been representing many of the counties that surround Polk.  

[ Parent ]
Hickenlooper
Posible presidential material come 2016? He will only be 64 that year.

Why Not?
There aren't that many Democratic governors who are popular and/or openly floating the possibility. Cuomo, O'Malley, Markell (if he can attract attention), Schweitzer ... that's all I can think of apart from Hickenlooper.

[ Parent ]
There are alot of good democrats out there who have put
in the time. I just hope hill dog and biden step aside so we can get some one new.  

TX-13,22,Dem

[ Parent ]
Fmr. Massachusetts Gov. Paul Cellucci has Lou Gerhig's Disease
That's so depressing
Cellooch is a good guy, and that's a horrible disease. Best wishes to him and his family.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Very bad news
This sounds like a particularly horrible case of the disease.  I hope for the best for him and his family.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Wow, that's really terrible! :( n/t


"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
That's awful.
I don't know how close scientists are to finding a cure for Lou Gehrig's disease, but I hope Cellucci suffers as little as possible.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Oh crap.
I hope to heck that he suffers as little as possible and that he gets the best treatment.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Hopefully he'll still get many years


[ Parent ]
Yikes.
I hope he still lives many more years as painlessly as possible.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Is it possible
to get better Democrats from North Carolina? I mean, I'm more than willing to give someone like Heath Schuler a pass on being against abortion, but is it possible to get Democrats in at least a few of these districts that won't vote against things like health care reform?

On the other hand, if this is merely just a gesture, akin to voting against Pelosi, and they know full well that this vote to repeal is meaningless, I can understand it. I still don't like it, but I can understand it.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


NC has some excellent Democrats
Brad Miller and Mel Watt are superb. David Price has been there for a quarter century and is still a back-bencher, but at least he has a good voting record.

[ Parent ]
Well, yes, but
I was talking about people like Kissell and McIntyre, people who aren't really bad but might be replaced by better guys. I guess I shouldn't be surprised if someone like McIntyre says he supports repealing the law after he voted against it the first time, but why can't he be like Schuler and say that there are enough good things in to let it be? I mean, is he really that opposed to it on policy grounds? And if not, just what advantage does he think he will wring out of such a move? Republicans aren't going to like him any more for it, but Democrats will probably hate him.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I
think he's really scared he'll lose in 2012. Though his fate rests in the GOP controlled legislature than anything else. McIntyre's going to be the last Democrat we see in that seat though.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Why do you say that?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Pretty Republican seat
White, rural, and Southern is not a combination we'll be seeing staying our way.  (For those left.)  Kissel's district is pretty AA, and Schuler won in the first place because it was the perfect storm of unpopular candidate, Schuler being a very tier one candidate and it was a very big Dem year.

[ Parent ]
McIntyre's
district, as is it currently is configured, is very rural, but it's not really that white. According to Wikipedia, it is 64.4% White, 23.2% Black, 0.5% Asian, 3.9% Hispanic, 11.8% Native American(?!?). Obama lost it overall, but by far less of a margin than he lost the other Republican-held districts in the state.

Fayetteville and Wilmington are getting bigger, and the counties they are in both appear to be getting more Democratic, not less, like the rest of the growing cities in the state--Cumberland County, where Fayetteville is, sharply so. That alone doesn't mean we're in the clear, but I'm more comforted by the presence of these cities than I would be without.

Are you worried about the fact that the demographics are running against us, or that the Democratic parts of the district will be taken out?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Lots of Lumbee Indians in SE North Carolina


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
After redistricting, you'll be lucky to see more than 3 or 4 Democrats from North Carolina.


[ Parent ]
What makes you think
it'll be that bad?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Repubs
have complete control over the process for the first time in years.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
This is where my lack of skill
with redistricting kills me, so forgive me if I am asking a stupid question and/or rehashing a tired topic, but can they really screw with the map to take out that many Democrats while not weakening any one of the current Republicans? Can Ellmer's district be made that much more Republican that it currently is?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Ellmers' district can be a lot more Republican
it only voted for Obama 52-47 and even that is with a Democratic gerrymander which tries to grab parts of Raleigh and Fayetteville in order to cancel out the conservative areas in between.

I believe someone on SSP made a 12-3 (!!!!!!!) map where every Rethug district voted at least 55% McCain (about R+9, give or take). NC-01 was extended to Raleigh, NC-12 went from Charlotte to Fayetteville, and I believe there was a new minority-majority district running from the Triad to the Research Triangle.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
It was 10-3
However, it would be more wise for the GOP to strive for 9-4.  That would avoid a dummymander.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
er, whoops, meant 10-3
was thinking of NC's electoral votes rather than its congressional seats...

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Here's how I see NC
I've done a map once with the new app and after you do a black majority seat and screw over Kissel, you end up with a lot of the Greensboro area that creates a Dem leaning swing district.  So that'd be one extra challenge is what to do with all of those votes.  Miller could certainly just run in a swing district created for this metro area as I doubt any of the neighboring Dem strongholds like Greensboro or Winston-Salem.

They are guaranteed three, (the two AA seats and a Triangle seat), if they want to screw over Schuler, they'll have a tougher time also working out dividing out the Greensboro metro, and if they try for both of those and really stretch themselves thin, getting rid of McIntyre will will be even tougher.  They could do all this and get themselves a 10-3 map, but in a good year it could 3-10.  I'd personally go for an 8-5 map, gain two seats, and call it a day.  Redistricting is one of the few areas where I advocate for a little bit of conservatism, so that's just me.  (Conservatism and sustainable.)


[ Parent ]
And what are the chances of them
actually doing a 10-3 or more likely a 9-4? What is to prevent them from doing it?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
If they try to shift McIntyre northwards
They accidentally help Kissell (McIntyre is shoved in a corner, making it difficult to crack effectively).  Kissell's will be the easiest to target.  They'll likely also go after Miller (he's relatively easy to get as well).  Shuler is likely to be targeted as well.  There's a tradition to leave the panhandle alone and Shuler is strong and tenacious, but they may try anyway and cut off Asheville to give to McHenry.  That won't make Shuler unelectable, it'll just make him shift slightly more to the right and campaign harder.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I've found that 10-3 is a fool's errand
I've toyed around with North Carolina a few times on the DRA and eventually came up with a solid, realistic looking 9-4 map. Kissell, Shuler, and Miller would be the odd men out if all went according to plan, and McIntyre would get a Democratic vote sink and find trouble in a primary.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Any chance of a party switch for McIntyre?
He may otherwise be redistricted to oblivion. A huge rumor on the Hill was that Shuler was ready to jump ship, but he figured he'd instead hope to get a chance to run for Gov in 2012 if Bev Perdue doesn't run again. Her approval ratings are anemic.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
Why would he switch parties?
Wouldn't that be a kiss of death because he wouldn't get out of a Republican primary? And was this rumor being tossed around before or after the election? If he can survive this year, he's probably fine going into the future.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Nope.
Parker Griffith saw to that.  A Dem can't turn Republican without being defeated in the primary since Ralph Hall.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
He'd have a better chance at being there as a Reublican
than as a Democrat with a Republican gerrymandered district.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
That district
is very hard to gerrymander.  See where it is? http://upload.wikimedia.org/wi...

They'd be smart to leave him alone, ruin Kissell and Miller, maybe a few other things, and that's it.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I don't think
it will be gerrymandered.  That would be playing with fire.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
If Republicans supported Parker Griffith
after his switch to the R party.

I suspect there would be maybe 5-10 other Congressional D who would have defected by now. And then the MSM would be talking about the end of the D party.

Sure there have been defections at state legislative levels, but I suspect that the R stupidity on the national stage has not been duplicated there.


[ Parent ]
Who do you think would have made the switch?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I personally would guess
(Mind you, this is lowly speculation.)
Dan Boren (his father's legacy notwithstanding)
Ben Chandler
And that's all off the top of my head.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Ben Chandler?
Uh no. Not a chance in this lifetime. I've met him and know a former aide of his and there is no chance. Trust me on this. He's not a bad Democrat when you look at his CD. I don't think Chandler would even switch even if he was guaranteed a free primary, and look at his voting record, he wouldn't get one. I'll give you Boren, that's one just waiting to happen.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Look at the list of people who voted against Pelosi
While only some of them would have defected, add Ben Nelson to the mix.  

[ Parent ]
Perhaps,
but would he be the Republican that was elected? Besides that, North Carolina isn't South Carolina, and it certainly isn't Alabama, so you have to think that if he wanted to be a Republican, he'd have switched by now. The fact that he stays a Democrat when it'd probably be easier for him to be elected as a Republican means he likes the party even if it doesn't like everything about it.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Shuler's district is VERY easy to gerrymander
If you take out much of Asheville, and give it to Virginia Foxx, her PVI would still probably be R+8 or more. Shuler's would be raised to about R+8 or R+9. Asheville is his base, and without it I think he'd lose.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
His district is currently R+6.
He'll likely still run in it and probably win in 2012.  Also, the GOP there would be leery about weakening Foxx.  It would make her defeatable since she is a controversial figure even in that district.

What I meant to say is that Shuler's district cannot be gerrymandered in such a way that he'll be preordained to lose (like if, say, the rating was boosted to R+12 and above).

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Moving from
R+6 to R+8 or 9 isn't radical, especially considering he won 54-46 in 20-freakin'-10 in a district that has been Republican for 16 years straight before Shuler.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Jeff Miller was an awful candidate
Also, Shuler will be put into a tough spot over his soon to be "no" vote on repealing the healthcare bill. If the Republicans took out just some of Asheville so that his victory margin would equate to around 52-48, or 51-49, a failure to vote to repeal health care could propel a huge advertising blitz, and that could knock him out with a strong Republican.
Also, keep in mind that Shuler has to walk a fine line, because many of the Democrats in the 13th are quite liberal. Asheville has a very strong progressive base. If he swings too far to the right, he could face a primary challenge that could weaken his appeal, and if he swings too far to the left, he's defeatable.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
Patrick McHenry could also win with a weakened district
You could easily add some GOP areas from McHenry's district to Shuler's, taking him from say a R+17 to an R+12/13. He would still win easily. He is less polarizing than Foxx is. Foxx has a rap for being very rude, even amongst the GOP on the Hill. She's not all that liked in her district, so my GOP couldn't weaken her all that much, but a few points off of her district would be fine.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
Likely.
But who can really say.  There's too many factors at work and we don't even know whether the GOP Congressmen possibly affected would object.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Finally
There's no real inside knowledge about the redistricting strategy, if there is one.  All we have is conjecture and outside speculation.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Of course he'll have to
walk a fine line if they change his district and I think he can do it.  But I don't think a vote against repeal would lead to a huge blitz, especially when campaign committees and groups are near empty or in debt.

And you can't dismiss a candidate as a fluke or "awful" all because he lost.  Miller raised and spent over $750K in that campaign, according to Opensecrets.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
And moving
his 2010 winning margin to a hypothetical 52-48 sounds likely to me.  

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I think
that Shuler will survive redistricting.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
In your version of a 9-4 NC
Would the 4 districts be: mcintyre, shuler, watt, and the new democratic seat (perhaps an african american district) in the Raleigh/Durham area?

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
He won only 60-something% in a primary
last year against a little-known liberal. Did that weaken his appeal appreciably in the general election? I didn't see any evidence that it did.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Bummed to see Ellison as a lieutenant
as MN will most likely will have a gay marriage amendment on the ballot and he's really needed here to make sure the African-American community has some guidance on how to vote on the issue.  He is certainly the leader of the small yet visible AA community in Minneapolis and also a vice-chair of LGBT Equality Caucus in Congress.  Bleh, he better find time.

Well, you still have Bachmann
I'd imagine that she'll probably say at least one dumb thing to drive away swing voters when were dealing with an issue as contentious as gay marriage

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
He will
I'm sure of it.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
California
it will be interesting to see how the new districts shake out (pardon the pun), especially for the incumbents. I especially like seeing people run for different offices, and my blog is focused on making a comprehensive list of all the people that run for office.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


NJ-Sen: Jay Webber challenging Menendez?
NJ GOP Chair/Assemblyman Jay Webber has been mentioned as a rising star and potential Menendez challenger. Well, he just resigned as state GOP Chair, maybe to consider challenging Menendez? http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

As someone from Jersey
He'd be a "some guy" challenger.  Seriously, why is everyone and his mother a "rising star" all of the sudden?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I have not been mentioned as a rising star in any discussions of Southern Indiana politics
Your claim is invalid!

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Run
against Young Bob. You got my vote.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
One vote down, ninety nine thousand to go


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
He was on that 40 under 40 national list that got a lot of press...
His political career has been moving fast in NJ...State Chair, Assembly, Redistricting player, still in his 30s? He's a rising star at this point.  But this week isn't going to help him.

[ Parent ]
What did he do?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
That doesn't mean much.
He's not a big player at this point.  Maybe in a decade if he moves up to State Senate or something.  He's just risen from nothing to something by being in the right place at the right time and pulling the right strings with the right people, but he is not a Tier 1 choice for a Senate candidacy at this time.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
never said...
I never said he was a big player or a Tier 1 choice.  I merely was saying that calling him a "rising star" is not just throwing the term around loosely like you suggested.

[ Parent ]
It's ok.
I'm just easily annoyed to hear "rising star" thrown out in a time when too many people are overhyped.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
One of the few things
that I've found to be true when it comes to those lists is that they are worthwhile for anecdotal information and little else, if only because each side, even after a few bad cycles, has plenty of legitimate contenders, most of whom won't make it nationally.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
nope
Well, I mean, maybe...but everything I've heard is he and Christie had a bit of tussle this week and he got a little fed up.  lots of coverage today at politickernj.com

http://www.politickernj.com/43...

You know if Christie wants to get involved in the 2012 Race, he's got friends higher on the list than Webber. (Baroni/Kyrillos/Guadagno).


[ Parent ]
Bill Baroni
I like him a lot, but face this fact: if he runs, he'll be teabagged five ways to Sunday.  He's a liberal Republicans, after all.

You should also include Leonard Lance on that list.  He's very qualified.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
depends...
A lot of the most Republican counties in NJ (specifically Ocean and Somerset) have very strong organizations  (Monmouth had a sizeable fail with Gooch to be sure...). I also think a strong endorsement from Christie would make it more difficult for a tea flavored candidate to gain a lot of traction.  When Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh are kissing your butt every day, the teas will probably be less likely to disagree with his pick.  Not completely unlikely, but less likely, with many fewer of them.  It's the same way I feel about Snowe in ME.  If LePage is going HARD for her, then oxygen is taken out of the challenger's room.

Lance has done very little to raise (or even attempt to raise) his statewide profile.  My friend works for his office and says the word "Senate" hasn't ever been uttered.  Though with redistricting, who knows?


[ Parent ]
I see your point
but I don't think Menendez is defeatable in 2012.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
New Jersey leans Democratic
But Menendez is a very weak candidate. I would not be sure he couldn't lose in any year.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
I would say....
Christie would hold more sway in a primary than in the general.  After all, his endorsement and support did not save State Sen. Tom Goodwin in 2010 (I know that it's a left-of-center district, but it's used to voting for R state senators with Baroni and Inverso before him).  He is very controversial and is a very rare case of having favorbles lower than job approval.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Guadagno
Cclub:  I know the spin is that her father is ailing and she wanted to go on vacation with him, but the fact that she and Christie were both out of state during the blizzard looked really bad.  It's the first time most people heard about her, and it was uniformly negative.  Not a great start.  She could have been taking charge and giving pressers, and instead the two of them oddly gave that spotlight to Sweeney.  I know they didn't know a blizzard was coming, but still.  

[ Parent ]
Wasn't the fact
that he, for better or worse, sounded like he was passing the buck to the counties for snow removal the thing that really hurt him?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
No
The thing that really hurt him was that he and his #2 were on vacation.  That's been the lead the Ledger for a week.

[ Parent ]
Call me crazy,
but I don't think his absence was the end of the world. It does look like there was a plan in place, and unless there was something that could have been done differently only if he and the Lt. Gov. were there, I'm not sure what the big deal is. I suspect it's his assholeish persona that did him in more than anything else.

And on that note, this link is amusing only for the headline:

http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
absolutely
You aren't crazy.  But if you work for the Democratic Party in NJ and want to get people elected, or work for the Ledger and want to sell papers, "Missing on the job" is 100x better than "Passing the buck to municipalities".  Your argument about it not mattering where he is is only being given by Christie himself, his staff, and his apologists.  Even a lot of Republicans say the optics were horrible.  It wasn't just that he wasn't there, but that they haven't had an LG for even a year, and the first time it was important, they couldn't coordinate so that one of them was in the state?  People are saying "I can't leave MY JOB for Disney and Mexico if one of my co-workers is on vacation, but the GOVERNOR can't work out his schedule with his #2 so that one of them is in charge?! What a joke!"

[ Parent ]
Fmr. Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer considering presidential bid
http://politicalwire.com/archi...

I guess he could be the GOP field's Mike Gravel?

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


Damn it!
I just came here to post that. Its kinda laughable. He's only been out of office, oh, 20 years, by the time 2012 comes around.  

[ Parent ]
Who better to beat the first black President than the guy who lost to David Duke?


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Is it any less
ridiculous than Rick Santorum looking like he's running for president? I mean, even if he's auditing for some other job and trying to push the debate in a particular direction, isn't there an easier way? And at least people like Michelle Bachmann and Dennis Kucinich have been reelected.

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
No shit!
Who does he think he is?  He is absolutely nothing special, didn't even come closet to re-election, and probably didn't even need a 2006 style wave to get beat.  He's needs to quit being pathetic and realize his 15 minutes are up.

[ Parent ]
FWIW
Santorum was re-elected to the house twice and fairly easily to the Senate in 2000, even with Gore taking PA. I agree his Presidential aspirations are pie in the sky but he is almost certainly doing it to drive the narrative towards anti-abortion issues and perhaps set himself up for a nice gig from whoever wins, if/when he endorses them.

[ Parent ]
Possible VP for Romney perhaps?


[ Parent ]
I don't see why Romney would do that.
What would Santorum bring to the table that any number of fiscally conservative and very, very, very socially conservative individuals that are currently in congress or in a capital somewhere wouldn't bring?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Plus Santorum
is very unpopular in Pennsylvania and just generally much more controversial than other folks with similar politics but less abrasive, divisive ways of disseminating them. He wouldn't help win any states but would bring damaging attention to the campaign.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
But isn't there
an easier way to be a kingmaker and audition for a job?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
If
he really wants back in politics why not something in Louisiana?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Nothing open
We already have 1 too many congressmen in 2012, SoS will be very crowded, Republicans control everything else and none of the other offices are likely to be open, and he is not constitutionally qualified to be AG. Running for Pres has more prestige.  

[ Parent ]
Hilarious
A man who as an incumbent governor couldn't get even 30% of the vote when he ran for reelection, and came in third behind both David Duke and Edwin Edwards, thinks he should run for president? Oy.

[ Parent ]
You laugh
but he could actually win. That is if every other contender got caught with a dead girl or live boy. Other way around with Palin.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
gosh, there's a number of ways to interpret "Other way around"
That is if every other contender got caught with a dead girl or live boy. Other way around with Palin.


[ Parent ]
ROFL!
But seriously, what has he been doing the past 20 years?

[ Parent ]
He apparently helped the McCain campaign prevent a Romney win in the West Virginia GOP Concention in 2008
http://mobile.twitter.com/stat...

If you'll recall West Virginia's Republican Convention was the first contest on Super Tuesday.  The McCain campaign wanted to deny Romney an early win, so when it became apparent that McCain couldn't win his delegates went to Huckabee, giving him a boost at Romney's expense.  There's apparently a rumor Roemer masterminded that for McCain: he also apparently stumped for McCain a bit.  

That's been his greatest political success since 1987.  In 1995 he tried reclaiming the Governorship but narrowly failed to make the runoff.  According to Wikipedia he thought about running for Senate in 2004 but didn't.  He's also apparently running a bank in Baton Rouge.  Not too shabby but doesn't scream political comeback.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Iowa.
I thought Boswell was DOA this year and that was even before I thought we'd lose Congress. He could surprise us again I suppose. Though you can't compare the opponents I suppose.

Will Branstead even run in four years? He could but would he want to? I suppose he could run again then try Senate in 16.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


I always thought Boswell would be ok
His challengers were a bunch of jokers.

I believe Branstad will run for a sixth term in 2014, barring some health problem. He would be 66 or 67 at that time but seems to be in good health. He has never shown any interest in Congress, and his kids are all in central Iowa--no way will he run for the Senate.


[ Parent ]
Yes, you kept the faith when Boswell was trailing
even before the scandal with Zaun being a dick to his ex broke. Credit where credit is due.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
I don't think he was ever down by much
maybe a few points, but those internal Republican polls showing Zaun ahead by 10 always looked fishy to me.

[ Parent ]
Donald Trump
Donald Trump was talking up a serious presidential bid on CNN, last night.

Run, Donald, run.  And Sarah, too.


I just found out not to long ago
He inherited the business from his dad.  Exactly what this economy does not need directing it; another trust fund baby.  I can make money magically turn into more money if you gave me $10 million to play with, too.  (I day dream of all the small businesses I know that'd be successful in certain neighborhoods around the city and how I could have an empire of them.  Damn Mega Millions getting me started.)

[ Parent ]
Mega Millions
I won a $150 smaller prize (for hitting three numbers plus the powerball). I won't be buying a yacht, but I will take Emilysmom out for a nice dinner.

[ Parent ]
You played the Lost numbers, didn't you?


[ Parent ]
4.... 8.... 15...
wrong number.... wrong number... and the powerball number is 42!

Gawd, I loved that show!


[ Parent ]
No, just random
I tried watching Lost, but turned off when they did the polar bear on the beach thing.

[ Parent ]
When one of Trump's Atlantic City casinos was in trouble
His dad walked in with a suitcase filled with cash, bought $400,000 in chips, and then walked out. The New Jersey regulators slammed both Trumps for making a non-reported and non-approved loan to the casino.

[ Parent ]
Pete Sessions and Mike Fitzpatrick
Since they did not take the oath yesterday, Wikipedia has them both assuming office on Jan. 6. So according to Wikipedia, Pete Sessions was a former Congressman yesterday. Is it correct to say they did not assume office until the 6th, since they did not take the oath?  

I read about that.
I like good comedy.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Yes, I believe it is
Has Wikipedia started correcting the bizarre "term started Jan. 3, 2011" weirdness? Seems like some editors jumped the gun.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
In the Constitution
The terms begin on January 3rd, but they rarely do.  

[ Parent ]
But it's also law that the term begins only after the oath of office is sworn, right?


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
No, they're on the payroll as of noon Monday, 1/3
It's just that they can't vote (on the floor or in committee) until they're sworn in.

[ Parent ]
Speaker Boehner referred to them as "members-elect"...
And Capitol Hill security told them to stand in line with the rest of the "visitors" on Wednesday when they were going to be sworn in.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Reichert and McKenna

I begin to think R McKenna is enough rik-averse for wait until C Gregoire retires. Surely if C Gregoire retires not R McKenna run not for governor in 2012.

D Reicher can see his seat a little more republican, but I think would be strongly targeted again in WA-08.


Nah, politically, Gregoire is like
Blanche Lincoln in a bluer state. Still a near certain loss if she runs in '12.

[ Parent ]
Looking to the trend of the polls after the elections

I would be not surprised of see C Gregoire with - 5% maybe - 7% in approval rating in the next poll. And I would not give her as death. If the things go a little to better she would be competitive. If the things go to worse surely she will not run again.

[ Parent ]
Past performance
in '04, Kerry won by 6, Gregoire won by a razor (recount)
in '08, Obama won by 17, Gregoire won by 6

Gregoire underperformed in '04 and '08, by increasingly negative margins. I'd guess that Gregoire might still lose if President Obama carries WA by 20 in '12 -- 25 if McKenna runs and acts all lovey dovey with the President.

Most prominent WA Ds should come closer to matching President Obama's numbers in '12.

It's a shame, as she had quite the role in the big cigarette settlement -- but that was before she became Gov.


[ Parent ]
I don't get Gregoire's unpopularity
I don't follow WA state politics closely (even though I live in the state!), but she isn't especially liberal or controvertial. She strikes me as quite a competent manager, actually.

It'd be one thing if the state was more conservative than it is. It seems just like some kind of unthinking prejudice.

WA-07, 34 years old


[ Parent ]
WA
Agreed, shes done a good job, and WA is fairly Democratic so her approval numbers being bad and her underperforming never made sense to me.

29/D/Male/NY-01

[ Parent ]
Gregoire's poll numbers tanked in May 2010
but improved during the summer and fall according to the Elway and Rasmussen polls. By September 46% approved/strongly approved of her job performance compared to 54% who disapproved. Those polls were of likely voters in 2010 which is a slightly more Republican pool of voters than are likely to vote in the 2012 election.

If the state's economy improves, her numbers will, too. Having said that, I don't think she is likely to run for a third term. I think that is a shame because she has been a good and competent governor in a very difficult time.  


[ Parent ]
I think McKenna would rather take on Gregoire than Inslee.
I don't expect Reichert to enter the governor's race. It is true he "auditioned" before Republican leaders in Olympia for that role some years ago but her performed so badly and showed such a poor grasp of state issues that Republican leaders went looking for another candidate and found Rossi.

Reichert hasn't studied much in the intervening years and McKenna would easily win a head-to-head contest. Reichert will either try to keep his seat or retire.

If Gregoire soes not seek re-election, I expect a primary battle between Inslee and Sonntag with Inslee winning. I doubt Inslee would challenge Gregoire if she chooses to run again but Sonntag might.


[ Parent ]
Who may run against Cantwell?
Any ideas or will this be like OR-Sen 2010?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Unless Rep. Reichert runs...
And I think it's a fool's errand. I view Sens. Cantwell, Klobuchar, and Gillibrand much in the same bracket: They're potentially vulnerable, staunch liberal women in fairly blue states, but they are charismatic, well-connected, and gangbusters at fundraising, so they probably won't face serious challengers and they're strongly favored even if they do.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
MN
Klobuchar is not vulnerable in any way shape or form.

29/D/Male/NY-01

[ Parent ]
I have to agree.
The more I read about her and her time in office thus far, the more I realize how great she is for that state. If she's going down, 2012 will be for us like 1964 was for the Republicans, except a lot worse.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Still, if Bachmann spends $50 million against her
you'd have to take that seriously.

[ Parent ]
$50 million?
Where the hell is she going to get that money? I thought most of her money went right back out the door because she, like Angle, raised a lot of it through direct mail and other means that ate up a lot of the sums she brought in.

Besides that, is that amount if money going to change the minds of enough voters and bring out every last one that might ever consider voting for her?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
It would have to be a Chris Dudley type
someone like Jay Buhner. (While the bone has campaigned for Rs, including Rossi, AFAIK he's never shown interest in throwing his hat into the ring.)

But even then, WA-Sen would still be likely D.  


[ Parent ]
I'm not a sports guy, so
hopefully I am not mistaken, but I think that comment is as good a reason as any to post this clip:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
It's one thing that makes Buhner more popular in WA
anything that screws with the Yahnkees -- and Steinbrenner's head, bless his dearly departed soul.

[ Parent ]
2 Pieces of Good News
U3 Unemployment drops 9.8% to 9.4%.  U6 Unemployment drops from 17% to 16.7%.

Also, the Dem Senate caucus is working to revamp their message machine to be more like Schumer.
http://politicalwire.com/archi...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


I was expecting
a much, much higher overall number, although at least the numbers for October and November were revised higher.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Were they? Good
Time to go back over to PW and settle a couple bets then.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Just wish this happened at least 3 months ago
300,000 new jobs in a month ain't trivial. This was an excellent holiday season for retail.

[ Parent ]
I'm still
a little unsure of how the unemployment rate reacts to the overall number of jobs added.

Now, take this for what it's worth, but I read something yesterday where Mark Zandi predicted that instead of the usual post-holiday slowdown in consumer spending, consumers were likely to spend strongly into 2011, perhaps all year. Hopefully, that will provide the economy with the juice needed to add more jobs.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Just watch the price of oil
If it's above $150 by say midyear (aka gasoline above $4/gallon), that would choke off the stimulative effect of the payroll tax cut, halting economic progress for '12.  

[ Parent ]
One swallow...
I doubt it would have made a difference in November. If it happens throughout 2011 on the other hand...

[ Parent ]
I still don't think unemployment cost Democrats Congress
Look at how well Obama is polling in freakin Nevada, the state with the highest unemployment rate.


[ Parent ]
So what do you think was the culprit?
I don't think pointing to Nevada means that unemployment, foreclosures, and general economic worry wasn't the main reason for the magnitude of the Democratic losses in 2010.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Superb!
Great news for the country and Obama.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
NH-Prez (R): Romney up 23 points
Romney - 39%
Palin - 16%
Huckabee - 10%
Gingrich - 8%
Paul - 7%
Pawlenty - 4%
Santorum - 3%
Barbour - 1%

http://nhjournal.com/2011/01/0...

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


Not surprised.
Romney has a leg up in NH, since he's from next door (MA) and has spent plenty of time campaigning "appearing" there. And if Palin can steal enough support from the other hard-right teabaggers, her second place finish there might not be so bad for her.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Rudy considering presidential bid
http://www.nypost.com/p/pagesi...

Sounds like he thinks Romney will tack far-right during the primaries, leaving an opening for a real moderate.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


I don't
think he'd get the nomination, but I'd be interested to see him run because (a) if his candidacy is anything like it was last time, the comedic value alone is bound to be high and (b) it's a test to see whether social or economic and defense/national security issues are more important to the Teabaggers. I don't think he'd have a problem tacking even harder to the right on the latter, but I am not sure what he'd do about social issues. It's not just abortion, because that has become so open to flip flopping, it's amazing. He seems to be for affirmative action and is pretty good on gay rights. He can walk back some of that but not all of it without becoming as bad as Romney and losing his appeal to the center.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
This doesn't look like it will be a national security/crime election
Barring major developments in the war, an attack, or some sort of crime wave that sweeps the nations, the Republican primary electorate will probably focus on economic, and to a lesser degree, social issues, both of which are problems for Rudy. Even if defense became an issue, most of the other likely candidates are pretty hawkish as well.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
I agree.
I just lumped those in with economic issues because, well, they aren't really social issues.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Rudy
Everyone remembers him now for his post 9/11 performance, but his actually success as Mayor was Livability (economic as well as crime related improvements), this personal issues and just Rudy fatigue had taken the blush off his rose by 9/11, but in a 2nd POTUS campaign he could package that record along with a Stand And Deliver leadership style and he might get some real traction. Not saying its anywhere enough to get him over the hump, but he has the bonafides to run on much more than his Noun, Verb, 9/11 themed from '08.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
In a divided field, maybe,
but what is he going to offer that any other Republican that doesn't have his disadvantages won't offer? Besides, I doubt he puts much, if any, of the Northeast in play.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Balls
The only real thing Rudy has that will contrast him with the likes of Pawlenty, Daniels et al is stylistic. He has balls and exudes Executive Power (or hubris), it might appeal to a GOP primary electorate that loathes the egg head mealy mouth condecending elitism (their view, not mine) of the current administration.

I don't think he gets anywhere, if he even runs (which I doubt), but there is anough THERE there to at least move beyong the Noun, Verb, 9/11 caricature his campaign devolved into back in '08.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Maybe.
That is, at least until this clip comes roaring back into the spotlight: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

I mean this as a serious question: do you think a clip like that would sink him? I'm honestly not sure. It's not like people would question his sexuality or anything, and the mere fact that he dressed up in drag probably wouldn't bother people if there was not a constant reminder of it. But there is. And while his personal life shouldn't matter and doesn't matter to me (and not just because I wouldn't vote for him anyway), if you combine that stuff with clips like that, he seems...not particularly presidential.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Absent a major terror attack
Rudy is old news. Even then I doubt there is room for any kind of moderation in this GOP primary electorate even with multiple candidates. It is even more conservative than last time when he did so poorly.

[ Parent ]
He better
not make 9/11 the centerpiece of his campaign again if he does run.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
What else he got?
besides a noun, a verb, and 9/11?

[ Parent ]
Nothing...
And that's why Rudy is going nowhere. Again. The teabaggers will likely make sure of it.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Nassour defeats McCarthy, wins re-election as MA State GOP chair
A couple users expressed interest in this race yesterday. Nassour, the incumbent  chairwoman, turned away a challenge from her right and won 50-16. Most of the anger at Nassour stemmed from the disappointing results of the midterms in MA (Dems won everything), not from her fairly moderate policies.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

YES!
McCarthy is a nutbag.  

[ Parent ]
PA-Sen
As I suspected, Casey isn't safe but is certainly favored. Potentially competitive though there are several seats far more vulnerable.

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...


Odd that Santorum outperforms the other GOP-ers so much
Not unlike PPP finding Mike DeWine in decent shape vs. Brown.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Must be name recognition
And Casey has been quite anonymous by most indications. Still, the favorables/job approvals tell the story.

[ Parent ]
I thought the same thing
but then I realized Santorum is just the best known. I'm sure Dent or Gelrach or one of the other Rs would be more competitive if they actually campaigned statewide. The 42% Santorum got in the poll is probably not far from his roof.


NY-01/NY-19

[ Parent ]
I almost
want to say he's unbeatable, even if his margin is down from last time to, say, ten points instead of 18. This was the worst year for Democrats in the state in a long, long time, and Sestak came very close to beating Toomey without the advantages--the name, the presidential year, and so on--that Casey has to offer. He might not be as strong as Klobuchar, although nobody might be, but I don't see him losing unless people other people are blown out of the water.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Agree
The Repubs have lots of room for growth but there are quite a few with no opinion of Casey too. His good numbers with Repubs will go down with a campaign but that should be more than offset with strength with indies and Dems coming home for election day. I'm quite comfy with a favored rating.

[ Parent ]
Casey is healthy
As the poll memo point out, his numbers are better than average in the current climate and with him consistently approaching 50% and all the GOPers stuck in the high 30/low 40 range he seems safe.

More than anything though, despite his low profile, he is an almost perfect ideological fit for the state.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Casey will probably be fine...
Especially if Obama's political fortunes continue to improve. He can't be painted into a "LIB'RUL!!!" corner, so he seems a fairly good fit for a center-left state like PA.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
His pro-life stance
probably wins him a lot of love from old school Democrats in the Rust Belt portions of the state, and his otherwise consistently liberal voting record sustains his popularity in the metros like Philadelphia.  

NY-01/NY-19

MI-Sen: Stabenow at 37/39 approval with a 23% re-elect
Not good...
But not surprising.

The battlegrounds early on are looking like Nevada, Montana, Michigan, North Dakota, Virginia, Missouri, Maine, and Massachusetts.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
And Nebraska
How could I forget. Although that one might be already gone.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Could be worse
Basically even approval and in a blue state she would still had the advantage. I mean Obama has worse re-elect numbers but crushed all but Romney in the PPP MI poll.

[ Parent ]
Stabenow ~ matching Obama
Her vote–for numbers are 23–43; compare that to Obama's 30–48, and they're pretty similar, except that an additional 1/8th don't really have an opinion about her.

Ballenger got this one right:

... Stabenow's weak showing in The News poll was due, at least in part, to her being pitched against a generic candidate at a time when voter approval of Congress is at an all-time low.

"Approval of Congress is in the teens, a historic low," Ballenger said. "So putting her up against an 'anybody' shows that yes, she could be facing a tough election. But once you put up a specific candidate, minds do change."

And the Republican Senate candidate won't be looking much better than the Republican Presidential candidate.

Also note that turnout in Detroit may be better in two years; in the past, Democrats often left it up to the Mayor's machine, and I assume they'll have rethought that by 2012 -- either that, or the Obama campaign on its own will.  At least they shouldn't have to actively avoid the current mayor this time.


[ Parent ]
Possible Appendix to the "Emerging Democratic Majority"
excellent article in The Atlantic by Ron Brownstein http://www.theatlantic.com/pol...


That's not
a particularly stupid article, but I don't think it's a particularly great one, either. Why include the quotes from the Colorado that this election represented a rebuke of Obama's view of government, not once but twice? What backs up his contention? Is it any more valuable that a quote from John Kerry about how the Republicans fucked up the economy?

I don't think it makes any more sense to conclude anything definitive from this year than it does from 2006 or 2008. All three were wave elections. If nothing else, a bunch of polling details from PPP say that this year's electorate was just a lot more conservative than we are used to seeing--in other words, not a typical voting pool. That may or may not be the case in 2012, but conservative voters preferring conservative candidates doesn't tell us anything new or surprising.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Quote
"Much can change in two years--as Obama's own post-2008 odyssey demonstrates."

Reminds me of the AZ Politico article. These things always ignore long term trends and concentrate on the most recent election. Dems were dead after 2004 and Repubs after 2008. Nonsense.


[ Parent ]
The change in voting habits of the white working class
is unprecedented, and represents a break with the New Deal coalition. It presents the key question of future Democratic election strategy --

1) Focus on increased minority turnout
2) Find and focus on issues associated with the white working class

While I don't think these goals are mutually exclusive, based on the different approval ratings for President Obama from these groups, they are difficult to work in tandem.


[ Parent ]
But is it anything really new?
White voters for president since 1972 for the Democrat -

31 47 36 35 40 39 43 42 41 43

http://elections.nytimes.com/2...


[ Parent ]
The divergence in voting behavior
white working class and the white educated class

Overall, the way they focus on social issues and economics would differ, thus driving the issues to be worked. Some supporting quotes:

Meanwhile, Republicans, with their 60 percent showing, notched the party's best congressional result among white voters in the history of modern polling.

R's best result among whites -- ever.

Democrats have been losing support among blue-collar white voters since the 1960s, but in this election, they hit one of their lowest points ever. In House campaigns, the exit poll found, noncollege whites preferred Republicans by nearly 2-to-1 with virtually no gender gap:

No gender gap among white working class voters.

Even Democratic Sens. Barbara Boxer of California and Michael Bennet of Colorado, each of whom ran well among upscale whites, won only about one-third of working-class white voters. In Wisconsin, those blue-collar whites doomed Democratic Sen. Russell Feingold: He carried most minority voters and a thin 51 percent of college-educated whites, but he was crushed among working-class whites, who gave him only 40 percent of their votes.

Boxer and Bennet cleaned up among college educated whites, Feingold did not. Thus the question raised later -- do Ds go after states with similar demographics, e.g. NC, CO, AZ, etc, or find ways to bring back white working class voters.

(Of course, if Brownstein made some factual errors in the article, the conclusions would not apply. If you (conspiracy) say so, I'd believe you, as I respect the quality of your research.


[ Parent ]
I think he makes valid points
But it is a mistake to put too much emphasis on one election result.

[ Parent ]
I think the data is based on more than one election result
one more quote

Democrats have been losing support among blue-collar white voters since the 1960s.

and I think the conclusions are consistent with the trends we have all been discussing.

Nevertheless, I gather D support among white working class voters have fluctuated -- I'd assume because of the issue focus of different candidates.


[ Parent ]
No I see that
Bt the emphasis is on this is the worst it has been. Well that should surprise nobody and similarly it doesn't mean it is permanent.

Nevertheless, I gather D support among white working class voters have fluctuated -- I'd assume because of the issue focus of different candidates.

Absolutely. This is my point. It goes back to the primary wars - Hillary and Obama had different coalitions. She would have won in November 2008 but with different states, doing better than him in some demographics and worse in others. But I don't argue with the fact that the future of the party is in states like North Carolina and Arizona rather than Ohio and Indiana. Indeed, demographic change suggest that is a good thing.


[ Parent ]
And Axelrod's response suggests something of Hillary's approach
"The issues we'll burnish are ones that will resonate better with some of these [disaffected  white] voters." --White House political strategist David Axelrod

Which suggests some hedging of bets -- or at least a feeling that states like NC and AZ aren't quite yet ready to replace certain midwestern states as part of the D coalition.


[ Parent ]
Yup
He certainly shouldn't bring "bitterness" into it again! The thing is, and I think the data I posted supports this and Brownstein alludes to it, whatever white working class voters have been lost they have been replaced by other white voters. Else Obama himself wouldn't have got 43% of total white votes in 2008.

[ Parent ]
Okay, you're focusing on macro
and I'm focusing relatively micro -- both approaches are required for a successful campaign.

To enhance Axelrod's work, the President would do well to work on his bowling game, especially since hunting is not in his repertoire. Hate to think he'd also want to start drinking Bud and Miller (Michelob might be acceptable) instead of the latest microbrew.


[ Parent ]
The last thing he needs to do is go windsurfing!


[ Parent ]
Don't see much of a trend there myself
So the gap was larger in 1994, 2002 and 2010. Considering how well the GOP did in those cycles it that should not be surprise. And the gap in 2008 is likely an anomaly because Obama got huge AA turnout and support. If anything an increase in the gap could well have more to do with Hispanics having a larger share of the electorate and becoming more Democratic.

[ Parent ]
I'd be curious to
see what the exit polls said in different states.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]

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