Perhaps the scenario....

Would be Ensign resigns (those words look odd next to each other) sometime this year.  Heller is appointed by Sandoval and the toss-up race becomes Likely R with Heller has the incumbent.

Did I see that there would be a different way of filling NV-02 than a special election if it's open?

---

by: patlak @ Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 20:20:47 PM UTC

In no way does Heller

Make sure Democrats lose. He makes it difficult but it is far from impossible. Incidentally, credit where it is due to Nevada Republicans in comparison to their Louisiana brethren.

---

by: conspiracy @ Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 20:25:42 PM UTC

Lol

The irony of "what happens in Vegas" Nevada being more anti-adultery than "family values" Louisiana...

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

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by: sapelcovits @ Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 23:27:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Its not that

NV is a much less red state than LA. If NV was a red, red state like LA, Ensign would probably be doing pretty well considering how close he is in these polls. Since LA was a red state, it was easier for Vitter to get over his scandal. Plus Dem candidates in NV are much stronger than Melancon.  

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by: GOPVOTER @ Fri Jan 07, 2011 at 01:09:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Actually

back in the early stages of the race someone polled an alternative to Vitter (forget who, don't think it was Accardo or Traylor) and found that person only doing narrowly better than Vitter. That led to one of my favorite SSP lines of all time (up there with Panic! at Tedisco): "apparently not getting caught in a prostitution ring is worth an additional 3 points in Louisiana."

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

---

by: sapelcovits @ Fri Jan 07, 2011 at 07:54:01 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Then-SoS Jay Dardenne

Who is now our Lt. Gov. He probably would have lost to Vitter in the primary, for being considered a moderate.  

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 03:22:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes, that's a good part of it...

Vitter had much more of a GOP base to work with than Ensign. However, I'm sure it's more than that. From what friends and family have told me here, I can tell they're also incensed over Ensign's payola cover-up operation and his "Mr. Moral Values" hypocrisy.

And yes, at this point, the only GOPer that NV Dems may want to go against even more for NV-Sen next year is Sharron Angle. And if she or some other prominent teabagger jumps in the race, that will make Dean Heller's job of knocking out Ensign in the primary that much harder.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Fri Jan 07, 2011 at 17:39:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

No chance

Goodman is seriously considering a bid, is there? I know he bolted the party recently, but he was a rumored gubernatorial candidate nonetheless. Looks like Goodman would not only win by the largest margin of any Dem opponent to Ensign, but he'd still represent our best shot if (a) Ensign resigns/retires or (b) Ensign is defeated by Heller or someone else in the primary. Either way, I had a feeling Berkley would be less popular than some were predicting.

NY-01/NY-19

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by: swamisurfer14 @ Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 20:27:11 PM UTC

Nevada Polling Issues

There is though the known polling problems in Nevada, so if Ensign is trailing  only slightly means that he's down big and that Heller is ahead but not by this big of a margin, unless PPP fixed their (and others') problems in Nevada which they don't mention as having been done, maybe, maybe not.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

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by: MosheM @ Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 20:32:46 PM UTC

Nah

Doesn't change the big picture - Ensign is weak, Heller is strong and the Dems are largely unknown.

---

by: conspiracy @ Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 20:43:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yup

NV polling is a big question mark. Look, for example, at the age crosstabs.

---

by: andgarden @ Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 20:43:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I hesitate to get into this

But that won't change the topline much and the evidence is pretty clear that despite funky crosstabs PPP like SurveyUSA still manages to produce accurate ballot tests.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 20:45:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Typically I would agree with that

But Nevada strikes me as a special case. The polls have been wrong two cycles in a row.

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by: andgarden @ Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 20:47:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The polls have been wrong for a decade out there

Anything up to five points more in favor of Republicans than reality. Since we know that we can compensate and as I said that doesn't change the convential wisdom that Heller is stronger than Ensign.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 21:03:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

However

Looking now into partisan and race break downs in the poll, which also isn't of likely voters and they make much sense.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

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by: MosheM @ Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 20:54:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

They never poll likely voters this far out

As they shouldn't. But when PPP shifted from their RV hybrid model lasy year it didn't change much more than a couple points in favor of the GOP. Besides, for all we know, in twenty-two months time that switch may favor Democrats.

---

by: conspiracy @ Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 21:00:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well, what it at least means...

Is that:

-Ensign is vulnerable in the primary, but far from dead there...

- But that doesn't change the fact that Ensign is dead meat should he make the general.

- Heller will be favored if he manages to make the general, but it won't be impossible to beat him.

- Shelley Berkley will be favored if Ensign is her general opponent, but will have major problems staying viable up north if she's up against Heller.

- Especially if Heller really does want to run, Ross Miller and Catherine Cortez Masto might not get shoved out of the Dem primary too soon.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Fri Jan 07, 2011 at 17:43:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Color me rather surprised at just how strong Rep. Heller is

Of course, there is a difference in name recognition right now.

I think Sen. Reid would be happy to serve with either Reps. Heller or Berkley, so I don't expect him to intervene much here.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

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by: SaoMagnifico @ Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 20:57:51 PM UTC

I understand that there is

some sort agreement/friendship/pact, but if Reid wants to maintain his majorities and keep his position as majority leader he will need to start caring. If this seat stays in Republican hands without any real help from Reid them he shouldn't have a leadership position.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

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by: ndrwmls10 @ Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 21:30:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm not in

politics, so I am not sure how these things work in practice, but what if Heller or Ensign or someone else with a connection to Reid were the first to break it? Couldn't he then do whatever he wants without feeling bad?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

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by: b.j. @ Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 22:14:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

non-Agression pact

This is overblown, from what I understand Ensign & Reid have a gentleman's agreement to not actively support a challengerto the other.

No indication that this relationship would extend to Heller.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

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by: notpjorourke @ Fri Jan 07, 2011 at 01:17:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

No, Heller is definitely a part

if anything he is a part more than Ensign, because Ensign is damaged goods and it was also revealed he helped Sharron Angle with debate prep (a lot of good that did her).

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

---

by: sapelcovits @ Fri Jan 07, 2011 at 07:52:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ensign also

convinced former Congresswoman Vucanovich (who was leery on Angle) to endorse Angle, telling her that it was imperative to defeat Reid.  That endorsement was likely worth squat, but still you see that Ensign was stepping on the non-aggression pact early on.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Fri Jan 07, 2011 at 07:55:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Heller or Krolicki?

I know for a fact the two are quite close, not to say one would automatically defer to the other, but It is possible they have discussed between them the best possible course for both of their careers.

I think if Ensign does not retire than Heller will run to take him out, he has tons of pressure on him in the state and in DC (especially from the NRSC) to keep the seat in the GOP column.

However, that said, I don't hink Heller is unhappy in the house and doesn't yern for a Senate seat. Krolicki however is probably chomping on the bit to prove the allegations against him were totally bogus and he still has Star Power, since he's blocked from running for governor until 2018 it makes sense for him to run for Senate.

I don't think Krolicki challenges Ensign in a primary, too much "your laundry is dirtier than my laundry" message problems, it will be much easier for Mr. Squeeky Clean Boyscout Heller to take down Ensign.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

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by: notpjorourke @ Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 20:59:16 PM UTC

Pull a Rob Andrews?

I almost forgot that that Rep. Rob Andrews challenged Lautenberg in NJ-Sen '08 and got pasted.  He had his wife run for the House seat and when she won the primary, she left and allowed him to run.  I forgot how slimy that was.  I doubt Heller could do it, because of the competitive nature of the district.  Can anyone think of any other Reps. in recent years that were able to pull off the lose a Senate Primary, still run and win House seat the same year trick?  Not the "I'll get it back in two years..." one that is more common.

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by: patlak @ Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 21:22:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

huh?

Either you completely misunderstood me or I completly missed the relavance of the Andrews analogy.

I think if Ensign run again, Heller will challenge him and win.

If Ensign retires (or resigns) I the LG (I can't spell his name on my blackberry) runs.  

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

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by: notpjorourke @ Fri Jan 07, 2011 at 01:23:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Is this really good news?

I see all Democrats except one highly unlikely larger than life figure (whose poll numbers would probably come down to earth the second he got in) within the margin of error against a Republican whose reputation has been thoroughly trashed.

Generic Democrat is 50-50 versus Ensign.  This tells me Ensign can still win.  Particularly in a negative campaign where if he can do what Reid did to Angle and make the campaign about his opponent rather than his unpopular health.

Of course it's still two years out and the Democratic label is at a historic low in popularity and may well recover.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

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by: Taget @ Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 21:16:15 PM UTC

I wonder

if that course of action would be that effective should Ensign try it. After all, was Reid particularly unpopular personally, like Roland Burris, or was he more in trouble because of the climate he was running in? Don't get me wrong: I know Reid had low numbers before the election, but where they that much worse than those for a lot of other senators?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

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by: b.j. @ Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 21:21:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I

think the reason why Reid's negative campaign worked so well was because not only was there a plethora of material (besides the regular attack points) for Reid to draw upon, Angle wasn't really your generic Republican and there were some really scary things about her that a negative campaign can ingrain into even the most tone death voter.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

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by: ehstronghold @ Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 21:28:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes, Reid's campaign can work ONLY IF your opponent...

...has that much baggage as Angle does.

You can't sell just any message.  It has to be credible.  Not everyone is a batshit crazy extremist, so you can't make that label stick to just anyone.  It stuck to Angle because it was true.

But no one on our side in Nevada contemplating a Senate run is a crazy extremist like that.  Everyone is a credible candidate.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 21:43:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's why this should probably be his last term

Although 2016 will be much, much easier than 2010 simply because of Hispanic turn-out.  Which Reid certainly got himself through money and a plan, but in 2016 he can probably coast on that a bit.  But his popularity in his home-state always makes me worry.

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by: Andrew @ Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 22:19:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He'll be

almost 80 at that time, so you have to wonder if he's going to retire just because of that. It's not a particularly high age for the Senate, but even the spryest of the spry might want to rest at that point.

I also have to wonder if his popularity will go up as Nevada recovers. If nothing else, there should be a lot of new people in the state that will possibly only have a positive history with him.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 22:28:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Jon Ralston tweeted after the election that Reid...

...is almost certain to retire, that this is his last term by his choice.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Fri Jan 07, 2011 at 23:59:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dems aren't well known

And in no way are or could be made to look as divisive as Angle.

---

by: conspiracy @ Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 21:45:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Generic Democrat is 50-50 versus Ensign

That tells me this poll is crap. Nevada is not so red that a guy with lower approvals than Sharron Angle is competitive with "Generic" Dem.

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by: panhandler @ Fri Jan 07, 2011 at 01:00:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not necessarily.

The economy in Nevada is horrible.  The worst in the country with the numbers almost being apocalyptic.  And many voters still blame Democrats.  You also have just had a Republican victory and the press is still fawning over the Republicans (or at least those who can take time off between fundraisers to be sworn in).

A lot depends on an improved political environment between now and 2012. Of course two years is time for Ensign to rehabilitate himself.  Though given Ensign's past performance self-immolation does seem a likelier possibility.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

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by: Taget @ Fri Jan 07, 2011 at 13:39:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nah. More like...

Shelley Berkley is considered "polarizing" a la Harry Reid, so she'll likely have to embark on the same kind of campaigning to "help" Ensign win the GOP primary... Only to then crush him in November.

And the other Dems aren't nearly as (in)famous as Ensign. They have plenty of time to raise their profiles... But again, what they do largely depends on what Shelley decides to do next.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

---

by: atdleft @ Fri Jan 07, 2011 at 18:17:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

A few questions:

1. Why is Heller so popular? Nevada seems to be turning blue, so it makes sense that a moderate Republican like Heller would be far more acceptable than someone much more extreme, but is there anything special about him? Are some of his strong numbers simply the result of him being more well known?

2. Is someone like Shelley Berkeley headed for a real uphill climb if she wants the seat, or is there anything particularly daunting about it compared to any other similar race?

3. What are the chances that the Republicans fail to keep Ensign from running, if he decides he wants it?

4. What are the chances that everyone's favorite extremist, Sharon Angle, decides to run and the chances that the Republicans can't keep her from winning, even if they badly want to do so?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

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by: b.j. @ Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 21:17:20 PM UTC

I still think this is a good pick up opportunity for Dems

Even if somehow Ensign is forced out and Heller becomes the Republican nominee.If you look at the crosstabs all of the potential Democratic contenders really are not that well known, theres plenty of room for them to grow. Nevada's becoming more Democratic. I remember how surprised I was by how much Obama won it by and how well Reid did,even making it to 50%. And also of course there's presidential turnout.

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by: Democrat2010 @ Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 21:45:53 PM UTC

Not to mention

Polling problems in the state and the possibility Dem fortunes could well turn long before the polls open in twenty-two months time. Heller is tough but he is not unbeatable.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 21:48:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think too this is a good pick-up option, one of the bests

Where we can see a democratic challenger leading over the incumbent?

This poll tell me two clear things:

First: The democratic side need to run with the best candidate. The chance of the republicans run with a weak candidate is high. Still I would poll someone more, like the former governor R Miller or like the former attorney general F S DelPapa before decide.

Second: J Ensign appear weak. The war begins in the republican side. The teabaggers respect not the stablishment in Nevada. S Angle can defeat Heller, Ensign or both in a republican primary.

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by: abgin @ Fri Jan 07, 2011 at 05:44:04 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Frankie Sue isn't coming back.

Del Papa hasn't held elected office since 2002, and whenever she occasionally makes the papers again, she sounds quite content in private life.

Same thing with Bob Miller. He and Sandy are enjoying the good life at Anthem Country Club. They probably don't want to give that up to endure the crap that Harry and Landra Reid have to deal with daily in DC.

OTOH, Bob's soon Ross (our current, popular SoS) may consider it if Shelley Berkley doesn't run. The $25 million question will be if anything stops Shelley from making the jump. I guess it will largely depend on what Mark Mellman's (he's Reid's pollster AND hers) numbers show, and if Heller makes the jump.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

---

by: atdleft @ Fri Jan 07, 2011 at 18:14:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I would like to see some poll including both

I think both was so popular or at least not-unpopular. It is not very natural for me to see O Goodman, as the most popular democrat in the polls, then I would find some option more before decide.

I have not preference, but, why not? I always find open my mind for see who can be the best. If some poll give interesting numbers I'm open to support the best.

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by: abgin @ Sat Jan 08, 2011 at 19:31:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Probably still our best pickup opportunity

Everyone at DailyKos speaks with such certitude that Olympia Snowe will get tea-bagged, but with LePage's endorsement, the moderate nature of Maine Republicans, and the absence of a high-profile opponent, I'm more bullish on her reelection prospects than most. Same goes for Scott Brown. Massachusetts is too liberal for a statewide tea-bagging and Brown is perhaps personally popular enough to survive the general. It will be interesting to see if that insurgent conservative wins the state RNC chairmanship, though. That could alter the dynamic of the primary. Also, I think Richard Lugar will be safe by virtue of Indiana's open primary. He just needs to worry about turning out the independents.

Ensign, on the other hand, is damaged goods. And, if that last PPP poll is to be believed, Nevada Republicans still like him. If he can avoid serious primary opposition, or somehow survive the character barrages he's sure to encounter in a primary that will include more than a few evangelicals, he's toast in November. I know a lot of liberals said this about David Vitter, but I put slightly more faith in Nevada than Louisiana to do the right thing.  

NY-01/NY-19

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by: swamisurfer14 @ Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 22:22:52 PM UTC

Trend in Nevada

Does anyone know the trend of Nevada politically over the past 10 years?  Is it staying static as a swing state or is it trending to the left?  Obviously the massive population growth in Clark county helps the Democrats.

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by: TXMichael @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 18:33:20 PM UTC

Presidential vote

2000 - Bush won by 4 in NV while it was a tie nationally.

2004 - Bush won by 2 while he won +3 nationally.

2008 - Obama won by 12 when he won +7 nationally.

I'd say trending left. Reid's win is more evidence as is the latest PPP poll which had the president at 50% job approval in the state.

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 18:43:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Reid also had Angle to thank

Obviously a right wing whacko helped Reid get reelected.  Though it is interesting to see that Bush's margin went down in 2004 despite his overall better performance compared to 2000.

---

by: TXMichael @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 19:44:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Absolutely

But don't underestimate the impact of Hispanic growth either. Reid is on record saying it saved him. A decade ago Angle probably wins.

---

by: conspiracy @ Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 21:38:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]