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SSP Daily Digest: 1/5

by: Crisitunity

Wed Jan 05, 2011 at 4:10 PM EST


IN-Sen: Richard Lugar and local leaders in the tea party movement had a sitdown at an Indianapolis hotel last month. I'm not sure if it was actually intended by Lugar to try to deter a GOP primary challenge, but it seemed to have none of the desired effect if so; the net result seemed to have been cordial but with a sense of "game on," with the main question left being who the challenger will be.

WI-Sen: With this his first day out of the Senate, Russ Feingold will be, instead of heading for the K Street gravy train, taking a position at Marquette University's law school. When asked about his 2012 plans in the event of a Herb Kohl retirement, Feingold simply said that he hopes Kohl runs again and would support him if so.

IN-Gov: Democrat Jonathan Weinzapfel looks poised to become the first entrant in the Indiana gubernatorial race. He's announced that he won't seek another term as mayor of Evansville (which would require running for re-election this year), and says that he'll take a "good, hard look at" the governor's race and make a decision sooner rather than later." Meanwhile, after the Beltway collectively decided yesterday that Mike Pence was going to run for Gov. on the GOP side, there's yet more conflicting evidence today, as seen in his plans to appear with other GOP presidential hopefuls at a conference in Georgia, just across the border from pivotal South Carolina.

MA-Gov: Deval Patrick is vowing today that he'll serve out his full second term (something that a Massachusetts governor hasn't done in decades, not since Mike Dukakis), but won't seek a third term in 2014. That would seem to (at least for now) put the kibosh on any speculation that he might look to challenge Scott Brown in 2012.

MN-06: The news that produced spit-takes all across America this morning: Michele Bachmann is floating her name for president in 2012. Obviously a failed vanity presidential bid is no deterrent to a return engagement in the House if you hit the ejector seat early enough (just ask still-Rep. Ron Paul), but this bit of laughable presidential weirdness could have some major downballot implications if it truly leads to an open seat (especially if Tarryl Clark is indeed looking to run again).

WI-07: It looks like we might already have a serious contender in the on-deck circle in the 7th, which at D+3 is one of the bluest districts that the GOP picked up thanks to David Obey's retirement. Former state Sen. Kevin Shibilski was one of the short-list of candidates to run in Obey's stead (state Sen. Julie Lassa eventually became the consensus pick), and is now saying he's seriously interested in a 2012 run. Shibilski owns two resorts and apparently has serious self-funding capacity. Shibilski still sounds a little wary, though, preferring to wait and see whether new Rep. Sean Duffy stays a boilerplate Republican or turns into the sort of moderate who's been able, in the past, to hold down a rural Wisconsin seat (a la Steve Gunderson, or Mel Laird, if you want to go way back to Obey's predecessor). (H/t alphaaqua.)

IA-St. Sen.: The year's barely started and the Dems have already lost their first special election! I don't think anybody had particularly high hopes for last night's fight, though: it was a GOP-leaning seat in Iowa's rural southwestern corner, held to replace Kim Reynolds, who just became Iowa's Lt. Governor. Montgomery County auditor Joni Ernst held the seat for the GOP, beating Dem nominee Ruth Smith, with 67% of the vote. The Dems still control the state Senate 26-23, with one more formerly-GOP-held special election pending.

NV-St. Sen.: This is big news by Nevada standards: state Sen. Bill Raggio, the state GOP senate leader for decades but deposed recently from his perch in a tea party-ish palace coup (in the wake of his endorsement of Harry Reid), has announced that he's resigning later this month rather than completing his term. This may have Sharron Angle's antennae twitching, as you might remember she tried and failed to primary out Raggio in his Reno-area seat in 2008, and she might be interested in trying that again, adding the state Sen. to the list of her myriad other possibilities like another NV-Sen run or an NV-02 run if Dean Heller vacates (although it's worth noting this won't lead to a fast special election, as Nevada, like several other western states, fills legislative vacancies temporarily via appointment).

NY-St. Sen.: This seems like strange posturing that will probably vaporize once the Democrats are back in the majority in the state Senate, but four of New York's Senate Democrats just broke off from the Dem caucus and formed their own little club, the Independent Democrat Caucus (meaning the breakdown is either 32-30 or 32-26-4, depending on how you want to view it). Interestingly, it's not the usual most-uncooperative Dems (Ruben Diaz, anyone?), but a clutch of reform-minded Dems (led by the barely-re-elected David Valesky, and also including the newly-elected David Carlucci) who apparently didn't want to get boxed into voting for John Sampson as Dem leader.

PA-St. Sen.: The special election to replace long-time Democratic state Sen. Michael O'Pake in the light-blue SD-11 has been set for March 15. As I've mentioned before, this could turn into an interesting bellwether on where Pennsylvania's southeastern suburbs are headed.

Votes: Today's attention-getting vote was the number of defections against Nancy Pelosi in the Speaker vote: 19 Democrats voted for someone else (or present). Heath Shuler led the way with 11, while other votes included Steny Hoyer, John Lewis, and even neighbors Dennis Cardoza and Jim Costa voting for each other.

Redistricting: Two news stories concern the independent commissions that will be in charge of redistricting in two states gaining seats, Arizona and Washington. In Arizona, they're already litigating the issue of who even gets on the commission in the first place; new state Sen. president and all-around jackass Russell Pearce is suing on the basis that three of the people nominated to serve are technically ineligible. (Interestingly, two of the three are Republicans, although maybe the problem is they weren't hardliners enough for Pearce's tastes.) Meanwhile, in Washington, Skeletor has re-emerged from a decade of suspended animation: evil genius and ex-Sen. Slade Gorton will be one of the two designated Republicans on the commission. Luckily, the lead Dem going up against Gorton will be Tim Ceis, the former Seattle deputy mayor who's well-known for his own elbow-throwing abilities.

Finally, the Fix has its latest installment in its state-by-state redistricting look, and I agree with both their conclusions about Ohio: that, mostly because of geography, Betty Sutton is the likeliest Dem to get squeezed rather than Dennis Kucinich (since she faces pressure from other Dems from the north, west, and east), and that, because of depopulation in the state's Appalachian southeast and the fact that they're both obscure freshmen, Bob Gibbs and Bill Johnson are the GOPers likeliest to get pitted against each other for the state's other lost seat.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 1/5
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Any chance a Democrat can flip Raggio's seat?
I can actually see Raggio endorsing a Democratic contender if Angle runs. They really, really hate each other, apparently.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

He endorsed her Democratic opponent in 2010
So I could definitely see that, especially since he'll be out of office in 2012 and the Democrat in the race won't have the, er, stench of Harry Reid.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Huh?
If something like that happens, it will largely be BECAUSE of Harry Reid. For all the trash talk of the Beltway gossipers, Reep and Dem, of how "weak" he is, Reid probably now has the most powerful political machine here in Nevada. Shelley Berkley will most certainly need it if she's serious about running to join him in The US Senate, and Dean Heller's best hope of winning that same Senate seat is if Reid convinces Shelley not to run and goes easy on him.

And btw, I have my doubts that Sharrrrrrrrrrron will settle for state legislature again. She gained national prominence with her Senate campaign last year, so why settle for something less? I still believe she won't settle for anything less than NV-02, and it's likelier than many think that we'll see another Angle for (US) Senate campaign next year.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
I've never thought of him as weak
I just meant that he was fairly unpopular. Not the kind of guy that Republicans would endorse in a normal scenario, with a mainstream Republican opponent. I doubt Raggio would have enodorsed Reid over a Republican like Heller or Sandoval.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
That was never in the cards.
I doubt Raggio would have enodorsed Reid over a Republican like Heller or Sandoval.

Sandoval has Reid to thank for making him a federal judge... And making Nevadans forget about the controversy swirling around him during the 2003 budget fiasco.

And Reid has Heller to thank for not drawing out the 1998 Senate election a la Minnesota 2008 or Alaska 2010. It could have been far uglier if Heller hadn't resisted GOP cries for him to throw out thousands of votes and avoid certification.

Sandoval and Heller aren't stupid. They realized early on that challenging Harry Reid would prove fruitless, so they pursued other offices. Again, Nevada is NOT California. And the Nevada GOP can't ever get away with subjecting Reid to the kind of fire and brimstone the California GOP always tries to send Barbara Boxer's way.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Possible, but not easy...
Over time, Raggio's seat (Washoe 3) has trended Democratic. In November, voter registration there was 41.1% GOP and 37.7% Dem. However it won't be easy, as the Washoe GOP establishment has such a stranglehold on the area.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
OH Redistricting
I think the GOP might try to squeeze the 5 Dem held seats into 3 CDs. It can be done, but it's messy (like anyone cares) and would make the surrounding GOPers very uncomfortable (that they DO care about). Given the population drop though I thing you link toledo to cleveland to youngstown in 3 CDs and then (if the GOP is smart about this) you cut out a Dem district in Columbus t shore up the rest of the delegation. If a downstate Representative decides to challenge Senator Brown (looking at you Jim Jordan) they could redistribute the downstate electorate and produce a much smarter gerrymander than either trying to cut the Dem delegation down to 3 statewide, or to 4 statwide while combining the 2 SE OH Freshman (as The Fix' Aaron Blake suggests).

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


I don't think it can be done
at least not well.  It would force Renacci and Latourette to take portions of Cuyahoga County.  They may hold 13-3 for a little bit, but could lose many seats down the road.

[ Parent ]
Cuyahoga Ain't the Problem
I can back pack the county in easily, its the near lake areas between Toledo & Cleveland and then the areas surrounding Youngstown.the tendrals going East & West from Cleveland South are pretty ugly, the 3 D districts together look like a midget wearing clown shoes.

The key for the GOP to make a solid gerrymander that will last the decade is to create a Dem vote sink around Columbus. The N. OH GOP districts will be a bit more marginal, but can keep a base farther downstate (except LaTourette who's CD would wrap around Youngstown East). Population loss will make those seats safer over time, but it requires a new Dem CD to "Buffer" the south end of those districts touching Cleveland's DMA.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Bachmann
I would LOVE to see this woman run and get the nomination. She would be all sorts of headaches for the Republicans down ballot. I don't see a Democrat making a serous run at the 6th after it contracts and (probably) becomes more Republican. But having her at the top of the ticket would cause a LOT of problems for the Republicans in Obama districts. She is wayyyyyyy out in right field, both politically and mentally.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


Heyoooo, Congress! Climate change bill! Let's get our debate on! 1! 2! 3!
It is time to stand up and say: We get to choose.  We get to choose.  It's one of the two: liberty or tyranny.

The underlying bill represents the tyranny of the government.  It's our choice, what will we choose today?  Will we choose liberty, or will we choose tyranny?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]
It will never, ever happen...
But I would die laughing. Democrats would scream back into control of the House and President Obama would probably rack up 400+ electoral votes.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
I gave up on underestimating Republican stupidity
I did that about the time Mike Castle was defeated in his primary. Bachmann could teabag the hell out of anyone not named Sarah Palin.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
But she won't challenge Sister Sarah...
So let's just hope we can count our blessings should Palin win the nomination next year (which I think is quite possible). Obama may already be able to get 400+ EVs against Palin.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Bachmann's Talking Higher Office for 2 Reasons
1. She can raise unheard of amounts of money
2. It's quite possible that no amount of money will be enough for her to be reelected.

[Disclaimer: I went to MN in 2009 to manage El Tinklenberg's short-lived campaign for a rematch against Bachmann]

Bachmann barely won in 2008 despite it not being a great year in MN overall--remember, Franken almost lost and while I think he'll be a great Senator and hold that seat easily, as a first-time candidate he probably was a drain at the top of the ticket--despite it not being as tremendous a year in MN as was 2006, Bachmann only got 46% to El's 43%. Then, in 2010, a spectacular year for Republicans, in a race where she raised a staggering $8.5 million, she only got 52%.

In a year that's not a huge Republican rout, she would probably have a tough time in her district as it's currently configured. But her district has grown tremendously, and it's going to get smaller, and probably more Democratic. She lives in the far southeastern corner of the district, and she'll probably end up in the same district as Betty McCollum. But even if she isn't in that district, her district--currently the most Republican in Minnesota--will probably change enough that pretty much any run-of-the-mill Republican could win it.  But she's not a run-of-the-mill Republican, and her negatives are higher than almost any member of Congress. She's probably disliked by swing voters as much as Sharon Angle or Christine O'Donnell were. Like Bachmann, they raised tons of money. But unlike Bachmann, they were so polarizing they lost races that less polarizing Republicans probably would have won.  

Bachmann's choices appear to be run for reelection to Congress and probably lose ignominiously in a district that won't be as safe as her current district, or run for higher office, which she probably won't win but which will make her look like a beautiful loser, and assure her a lucrative after-life as a conservative martyr.  


[ Parent ]
I don't know if this is right
The Republicans will have a say in redistricting, and it's possible to make Bachmann's district more Republican. She could easily move if she has to, but in any event, she has enough followers in the new majority Republican Senate and House that they will go out to protect her, maybe by giving McCollum or Ellison some of her more liberal precincts.  

[ Parent ]
If I were a GOPer in MN
I would protect Bachmann at all costs, literally.  No other MN GOPer can raise money like she can, and who knows when she will throw $100K your way or $1M to the state party.

[ Parent ]
Remind me,
was most of her money raised by direct mail, like Angle, or was it raised by some other means? If it's the former, it's not particularly significant, because the return on investment is quite low.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Redistricting
A few things about your assertion that she won't win reelection. The courts drew the 6th in 2001, and will almost certainly draw the lines this year because the Republican legislature and governor Dayton aren't going to be able to agree on anything that serious. So since the courts came up with the current arrangement before, I imagine the map will look quite similar to what it does now. Also, making the 6th more Democratic is nearly impossible. It is a very Republican district with only 2 points where Democrats are at least even-odds: St. Cloud at the western tip of the district, and Washington County, where Bachmann lives. Neither of these are DFL strongholds, mind you. But the 6th has to shrink, and no matter which end you shrink it from, you are going to shed DFL/moderate votes. The core Republican base will still be there, as it is in the center of the district. So the odds are quite strong that the 6th will become MORE Republican, regardless.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
Book?
A part of me wonders if she is doing this in an effort to write a book and sell a lot of copies. While she is loved by the base she has no shot at all of winning the nomination. I'd love to see her run just to see the hilarity of the debates but I don't think we will ever see her debate Obama.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
It would be the rhetorical equivalent of the Death Star debating Alderaan
Then again, Palin probably wouldn't stack up much better in a debate.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Biden vs. Palin
While Palin is not the sharpest tool in the shed I came away from the VP Debate with her and Biden thinking that she held her own. I gave the edge to Biden but he didn't mop the floor with her. She may also be boosted by the fact that she had such low expectations going into the debate especially after her Katie Couric/Charlie Gibson interview disasters.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
I was impressed that she didn't spend the whole time drooling...
But other than that - I mean, such low expectations, amazingly low - I wasn't terribly impressed. I mean, the clumsy "say it ain't so, Joe!" gimmicks, winking at the camera, generally fumbling her talking points while then-Sen. Biden calmly and politely laid out his arguments...and it's not like Biden is a genius extraordinaire, either.

President Obama would crush her like a bug. She's learned nothing except for how to make money and land contracts.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
A Breweresque
Performance is what I was expecting. I guess only Jan Brewer can manage to botch her opening statement go silent for 10 seconds and not even recite something that may be loosely based on facts. Sadly, she still won. Palin was bad but I was expecting a lot worse so she definitely was aided by coming in with such low expectations.

I agree that Obama would absolutely destroy her. Considering how he basically put many of the GOP House members in their place last year when he was talking with them at their retreat tells me that he would take down so many of their talking points in a one on one debate that it would be fun to watch.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  


[ Parent ]
a friend of mine moved out of Arizona
for just that reason. He said "the weather is nice, but it's not worth it"


[ Parent ]
Biden != Obama
And Palin comes off as a lot more folksy than Bachmann. Palin is insane, but people see her as a down-to-earth. No one imagines Bachmann to be anything close to grounded.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
Re Nathan Daschle from yesterday's digest
What is he known for doing that makes him awesome?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

As we speak
one Democrat is voting for the Republican rules package. I'd say that individual looks like a potential party switcher.

Can't wait to see who it is.  


Looks like that individual switched back
Better an error than a switcher.

[ Parent ]
NE-Sen: Bruning Will Run
Its not anything we didn't already know, but he is moving from the exploratory phase, filing papers with the FEC to make his candidacy official. http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

Can
anyone from New York tell me why the hell the Democratic leadership in the state senate is so damn crooked? I mean its like once voters throw out one crooked senator, another moves to the front of the corruption gravy train. And what happened to Malcolm Smith? I thought he would slide back into minority leader.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

Both parties are corrupt
in the New York State Senate. Why? I don't know, other than because they can be. The entire State Legislature has been all about secret deal-making and "member items," which are chunks of money to spend personally in legislators' districts.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
you answered your own question
the State Senate is corrupt because constituents make it that way by only voting for people who steer pork into the districts regardless of how.

It actually started to change in the last election, but even Hiram Monserrate won a third of the vote when he ran for the State Senate seat vacated by his expulsion.

Some people in his district didn't care how corrupt he was. He helped build a park or get money for senior centers.  


[ Parent ]
We've seen some of the same mentality
in the reelections of Rangel in 2008 and 2010.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Arizona's Independent Redistricting Commission
All around jackass Russell Pearce actually LIKES (and said so in public testimony before the screening panel last week) the two Republicans about which he sued the panel.  Yes, he wants a Tea Party insider/confidant named Christopher Gleason to be added to the list of eligible GOP candidates, but he really only cited the problem with the two other GOP names as a smokescreen. His main fear is that independent Paul Bender will be allowed to remain on the list.  Bender, a law professor with decades of experience in election and redistricting law, allegedly is also a liberal.  

You can follow the issue further at the Eagle-tarian found at http://stevemuratore.blogspot.com


WA-Gov: Reichert May Run
http://hotlineoncall.nationalj...
If he actually does run, it would be interesting to see if state and national Republicans try to steer Reichert or McKenna to the Sen race.  

Trial Balloon?
Reichert's just probably keeping his name out there.  A lot of of factors would be involved in him jumping into the Governor's race: redistricting, Obama's approvals, fundraising, his (Reichert's) health. A primary agains McKenna would be brutal...as you suggest perhaps one could jump over to the Senate race.

[ Parent ]
Its possible that Reichert is trying to keep McKenna from jumping in to soon?
As Dowisetrepla said, I think Reichert is trying to keep his name floating out there. This indicates that he at least has some interest in a prominent statewide office, and that running in an open race (or less likely, against a severely weakened Gregorie) would be better bet than running against Maria Cantwell, who is in somewhat decent shape. As GOPVoter has said many months ago, McKenna likely has his heart set on the gubernatorial. He could have easily ran last year and possibly get a close victory against Murray with very GOP friendly political enviroment that was last November. In a presidential year with higher Dem turnout against a decent incumbent would be much more difficult for him.

A Reichert-McKenna primary could sigficantly damage the chances of the GOP finally winning the Governorship after being locked out for more than two decades, and I suspect national and state Republicans would heavily push Reichert to run in the Senate Race instead given McKenna's lack of interest in that position and his statewide elected position.


[ Parent ]
One of them should have run against Murray
Either one of them would have been stronger than Rossi, and going against Murray in 2010 was probably a less steep climb than going against Cantwell or Inslee in a presidential year.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Especially McKenna
It was a free shot for him. To win in WA, Republicans need to have a base in King County, and McKenna and Reichert have that.  

[ Parent ]
Well, potentially
Republicans have a candidate (for AG or whatever) with even better base in King county... In fact - he is the only Republican i know elected countywide and he even ran unopposed during last election. It's difficult to imagine a King county race without any Democrat, but it was so...)))

[ Parent ]
Who?
The sheriff? She's a woman though so it can't be her. I know two of the county councilors were considering it. I know one is Jennifer Dunn's son, Reagan Dunn, and IDK who the other one is.  

[ Parent ]
No
Prosecuting attorney Dan Satterberg

[ Parent ]
Anyone how Clint Didier might figure into this scenario?
Surely he wouldn't allow two establishment Republicans to walk away with both the Senate and gubernatorial nominations. Anyone know if he's given any hints as to his future plans? I seem to remember him mentioning that he would continue to seek office back when he lost the primary.  

NY-01/NY-19

Haven't heard much from Didier
Although he may well be interested in another try for office.  He didn't really endear himself to the state GOP establishment, such as it is, with his tepid support of Rossi after the primary.

Actually his only chance might be to join in if both McKenna and Reichert are also in the primary, if they split the moderate vote. Remember WA has the unusual "top two" primary, with no official party registration.  If Dider were to win the GOP nomination, either for Gov or Senate, he'd be a prohibitive underdog in the general election.


[ Parent ]
A pro-Dem NY Sen coalition
might be what the doctor ordered, especially when they retake the Senate in 2012..  It will help buffer against corruption.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Useless Trivia
Who cast the deciding (218th) vote for Speaker of the House yesterday?

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

Um...
I'll take a random guess and say it was then-Rep.-elect Todd Young.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Not quite
Young was actually the last member to get to vote, due to the alphabet. The only reason I know this is because I was dorky enough to watch it on C-SPAN.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Oh, that makes sense
Hmm...how about then-Rep.-elect Quayle, then?

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Good guess
It was actually G.T. Thompson of PA-05. Probably the most significant thing he's done in the House.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Off-topic question
As far as i know there is an internal fight in Massachusetts Republican party for state chairmanship between moderate incumbent Jenn Nassour and teabagger's favorite Bill McCarthy, who want to make party "really conservative" (and thus, possibly, absolutely irrelevant in state). Your thoughts and impressions on this subject would be interesting..

[ Parent ]
I have no problem with Nassour
I'm politically closer to her than McCarthy and when I met her last year she seemed like a pretty competent party leader. I think the McCarthy challenge is more about frustration than political differences, as Massachusetts was one of the few places left out of the wave in November. The party is angry about their failure to gain any Congressional seats or statewide offices, and the McCarthy bloc is looking to make her the "fall guy."

I think Nassour will win, somewhat comfortably, but even if McCarthy did win I don't think it would change much in the state. The party has absolutely nothing to lose except Scott Brown, and people won't be voting for him based on the ideology of the state party chairman.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
If there was another candidate
Who was sane and you knew could organize the party and raise money like Nassour did, say Richard Tisei, would you support them over Nassour? I hope Nassour wins just b/c McCarthy is a nut and he has said he will not give up his teaching job if he wins, meaning he would be a part time chairman, but Nassour failed to win the competitive races of Auditor and Treasurer, and failed to field a real candidate against Coakley, so she wasn't my first choice.  

[ Parent ]
wow
they got a senator elected in Massachusetts of all places and they're whining? come on.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
They bought into the fallacy
That because Scott Brown won in certain places it automatically meant Dem incumbents would also lose.

[ Parent ]
Glenn Thompson (PA-05).


[ Parent ]
Webb talks, says he doesn't dislike campaigning.
Won't say yet, but will by the end of the quarter.  He also reminds the reporter that he didn't announce for 2006 until 9 months before election day.



Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Kinda makes it sound like he's leaning toward running.


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
I'm guessing Murray et al. are pressuring him to run......
Job one for Senate Dems is to minimize retirements.  Our best bet in every seat we're defending is the incumbent who's already in it.  We don't really have any seats like Chris Dodd's where the incumbent can't win and someone else clearly will.  And we have only one incumbent, Ben Nelson, who looks to be in Blanche Lincoln territory, but there's no bench at all in Nebraska beyond sacrificial lambs so we have to root for Big Ben.

So I'm sure the heat is on Webb to run, and they're doing what they can to entice him.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Once Again We are in Agreement
Tons of pressure is coming on Webb to run again and if he doesn't to say so soon in the game. If he does bow out than the focus will be on Tim Kaine to run. As one of his early supporters I am hoping for Webb to run again. His campaign was the first that I heavily volunteered for and I would love to do it again.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
Kaine to run or no?
Lots of chatter last week about Kaine's promise to stick out his whole term at the DNC. I don't buy it myself, maybe it's a ploy to get Webb to run again out of a sense of duty or loyalty to the party, but if Webb retires it will not keep Kaine out of the Senate race.

I'm no fan of Webb and I think Dems would actually have a better chance of keeping the seat with Kaine than Webb. Never trust a guy to run for a seat he doesn't want...

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Promises are broken all the time....
I agree with you that I take it with a grain of salt that Kaine will stick around the DNC for another 2 years. If Webb retires I think it is highly likely that Kaine runs. Kaine can easily be replaced at the DNC by an Obama loyalist easily. Not that easy with the Dems weak bench to have a top tier Senate candidate.

Should be interesting to see how the GOP primary goes. Right now Allen looks to be the clear favorite. If the Tea Party vote is splintered amongst several candidates the easier for Allen to cruise without a bruising primary. Personally, I see Allen easily winning the primary since the VA GOP elected to go the primary vs. convention route.

In a Presidential year with VA being contested I would take my chances for either Kaine/Webb to beat Allen at this time. Too early to really say though.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  


[ Parent ]
I agree about retirements,
except that I thought there were one or two mayors who might make decent replacement candidates for Nelson should he not run. Regardless, as annoying as he can be, if nothing else, we should fight to keep his seat so he can be a place holder. Then, over the next six years, we can work to establish a bench in the state.



"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Exactly what "pressure" can they exert?
The guy jus plain doens't like his job and has no interest in public service (my own opinion on the quality of his public service, outside his very narrow area of intersest, are well know here), so besides saying please in a REALLY sweet voice, exactly what can Patty Murray say (or do) to or for him?

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Webb does have pet projects
Enhanced GI Bill, reformed affirmative action, defense procurement, relations with Asian countries, prison reform, etc. Murray can also offer to make Webb's life as a Senator easier by setting up fundraisers, etc.  

[ Parent ]
Yup, there are always carrots to offer. And more than that certain people's take on Webb...
...as a Senator and attitude toward serving as a Senator is based on pure conjecture.

There's no real reporting, only a well-circulated notion, that Webb is any more dissastisifed at being a Senator than any other Senator.  They all complain about the institution......as if it's not their own fault that the Senate is whatever they don't like it being.

I wouldn't be surprised if he retired, but there's no reported indication that he will.  And hell, there have been plenty of Senators in recent years who worked full bore toward reelection and then suddenly announced retirement.  Dorgan and Bayh both did that last year.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Paul didn't have to leave the race early
He actually was in the race longer than any other Republican save John McCain, when he withdrew in early June. Paul didn't have to withdraw. Texas law forbids running for two offices at once, unless one of the offices is POTUS. You can thank LBJ for that.

19, Male, libertarian Republican, TX-14 and MN-04

I would not be shocked to see Paul win the NH primary in '12
which could be an early knockout of Romney.

[ Parent ]
I would be shocked to see Paul win anything
His support is a mile wide and an inch deep. All the "RON PAUL R[EVOL]UTION!!!!11" crap on the Internet in 2008 didn't translate to any serious support. He's the Dennis Kucinich of the right.

[ Parent ]
Money
Does Paul still have all of his "moneybomb" money from 2008.  I remember him having like $20 million left when dropping out but wasn't sure if he donated it soemwhere or could spend it on his house race.  I never understood why people were donating so much to a non-factor (even though I must say I love his anti-FED policies).

[ Parent ]
I was surprised to find
that he had so many supporters lurking around blogs to comment, but then I read someone connected to his campaign hired the Internet equivalent to a robo-calling firm.

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
i think you mean
a mile deep and an inch wide.  he strongly appeals to an esoteric group of voters.  his support never gets past 20 or 30% (maybe in NV, can't remember) and more commonly falls around 10% but it's very consistant.  a mile wide inch deep was like blumiere in CT, very popular at first, but when he had to campaign withstand 50 million in ads his support receded to what, for a non-dodd democrat in CT, is pretty bad.  still enough to win though, because it's CT.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Blumenthal's margin wasn't awful
about the same as Kerry over Bush.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
You got it reversed......
You got the common expression right, but in Paul's case it's reversed:  his support is an inch wide and a mile deep.  In other words, he has intensively active loyalists more than almost anyone on the GOP side, but they are actually quite few as a share of Republican voters.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Nah, Paul's ceiling in New Hampshire is probably 13-15%
And, with Johnson in the mix, he'll only splinter that vote. What will be interesting, however, is if the likes of Daniels and Pawlenty run. It's those candidates that'll siphon-off the Romney vote, though, keep in mind, this is still a state where a religious right Republican like Huckabee or Palin will never actually prevail. Between them, they can probably get 30% total. Gingrich will play better than them.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Huck isn't all religion though
I find him to be swingy to the right for sure, but he is far more interesting and accomplished in personal and govt than most.  Also, I don't see him as flip-floppy as many others.  

Heck losing all that weight alone makes Huckabee interesting.  He also seems more genuine.

Though I agree his ability to win is minimal.


[ Parent ]
Who's Johnson?
Tim P. Johnson?  Ron Johnson?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Gary Johnson, the fmr. New Mexico governor


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
If Ron Paul is running, I doubt Gary Johnson will
Johnson is a firm Paul loyalist. He endorsed him back in '08. I doubt there'd be room for two members of the Republicans libertarian wing in the GOP field. Plus, Johnson knows that Paul can fundraise, has enormous name recognition, and is the intellectual godfather of the largest American political movement of the moment. He's devoted enough to their shared cause to not split the vote and smart enough not to take on such a political giant. If Johnson throws his hat into the ring early this year, take that as a sign Paul isn't running.  

NY-01/NY-19

[ Parent ]
He said recently
That he does not think Paul appeals to enough people to win, but he (Johnson) does.  

[ Parent ]
no
The only way Paul conceivably wins NH is if Romney doesn't run and the rest of the field splits 7 or 8 ways. He would have to get around 15%, Huckabee 14%, Newt 14%, etc.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
He would need a surge right now
The last PPP poll of the state in November had hi at 8%, sticking around his usual fifth in the field in high single digits.

I do think that is doable. His campaign had a lot of problems at the top, largely stemming from the problem that they did not anticipate a large amount of support early on and did not anticipate the opportunity to run a serious campaign. It also ran crappy anti-immigration ads in New Hampshire.

I think the issues are better for Paul this time around. If he does serious campaigning and frames his message, he can run strong. However, it will also depend on the performance in Iowa, since he has to be able to win that electability argument.

19, Male, libertarian Republican, TX-14 and MN-04


[ Parent ]
CO-03: John Salazar named CO Ag Commissioner.
http://coloradopols.com/diary/...

If Salazar doesn't want to run for his old seat, State House Minority Leader Sal Pace has been seeming interested.  Hopefully, the state redistricting makes CO-03 a little less friendly for Tipton.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


And let's face it
Even though CO redistricting will attempt to look like nobody gets favored over the other, the Dems are holding the best cards in the deck.  The GOP can't push for strenghening Gardner AND Tipton if they only control the lower House by the slimmest possible majority.  And the SC there is 5/7ths made of nominees by Dem Gov Roy Romer.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
PA-Prez: Obama at 46/49 approval, up 3, 4, 10, 15 over Huck, Mitt, Newt, Palin
NV-Sen: Ensign at 35/50 approval, down 3 vs. Berkeley; Heller at 46/23, up 28
Primary numbers will be interesting
Since a plurality of conservatives want him to run again and a majority of Republicans approve of his job performance. Heller looks tough though.

[ Parent ]
Heller/Berkeley
Heller up 51-38 for Berkeley. That's got to be enticing for him as I can't imagine he's that much more well known than Berekely, who represents the major population center of NV.

NV GOP has to be praying Ensign bails or is primaried out.  


[ Parent ]
To be fair...
Heller was the Secretary of State before he ran for NV-02 so he technically has been elected statewide before. How many people in fact remember that is definitely a reasonable question but no doubt that he looks very strong.

Run Ensign Run!

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  


[ Parent ]
I can't see
the poll on my work computer (DoD hates blogs), did they test Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki too?

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
No
However, looking at the crosstabs, PPP again finds a strange sample in NV. The kids come up as being particularly Republican.


[ Parent ]
Only Heller
They tested multiple Democrats such as Berkeley, the AG and former Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman but only Ensign and Heller for Republicans.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
Strange
I know for a fact that Krolicki & Heller are close so some level of cooperation is possible. If I had to place a bet I'd say Heller would run against Ensign in a primary if he doesn't retire, but if he does retire Heller will likely stay in the house and defer to Krolicki who would be governor now if it weren't for the scandal he put to bed recently, since he's blocked from running for Governor till 2018 (and has to be chomping on the bit to get into a real campaign to show he's still a power) a Senate run makes perfect sense. I don't think he'd want to get into a "my laundry is less dirty than your laundry" primary fight with Ensign so it would fall on squeeky clean Heller to take out Ensign (if necessary).

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Nevada Polling
There is though the known polling problems in Nevada, so Ensign trailing only slightly means that he's down big and that Heller is ahead but not by this big of a margin, unless PPP fixed their (and others) problemsin Nevada which they don't mention as having done, maybe, maybe not.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

[ Parent ]
Heller is better known
But not overwhelmingly so. Berkley 34-29 favorable, Heller 46-23 favorable.


[ Parent ]
American Future Fund
Sandy Greiner is staying on as the 501(c)4 group's board president, even though she just got elected to the Iowa Senate. I wonder if any state legislator in the country has a bigger conflict of interest than presiding over a political advocacy group that doesn't disclose donors.

Chicago-Mayor: Chico aims fire at Moseley Braun
http://www.wlsam.com/Article.a...

It's obvious where this thing is going - Emanuel ain't clearing the run-off, and, with Del Valle unlikely to drop out, Chico needs to make Moseley Braun his punching bag for the next few weeks. It's probably unlikely to work, given the Hispanic vote is so splintered between Del Valle and Chico, while Moseley Braun can now shore-up the black vote, which is larger than the Hispanic vote, anyway.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast



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