Google Ads


Site Stats

Redistricting in Georgia and Washington

by: jncca

Mon Jan 03, 2011 at 4:36 PM EST


Everyone says Georgia can't eliminate John Barrow, but I don't really see why not.  His district isn't VRA Protected like Sanford Bishop, so far as I know. And anyways, 4 out of 14 VRA for Georgia is better than, say, 1 out of 7 in Alabama.  

Here's my take:
Photobucket

Chatham Co. only gave Obama a margin of 15,000 votes, and if you add in the two suburban counties, it is only 50-50.  That plus all the GOP rural areas combine Barrow and Kingston into a Lean/Likely GOP district. (Light Blue) 60% White
from the 51% White Barrow's current district is

Sanford Bishop (Green) gets a 46% White district, a slight improvement.  He adds Macon, making GA-8 completely safe for Austin Scott (periwinkle), who gets a 65% White district.  

The new 1st district (Dark Blue) is 66% White and fit for someone like St. Sen John Bulloch or St Sen Jeff Chapman, who ran for Governor in 2010.

The 4th, 5th, and 13th remain similar

Photobucket

Phil Gingrey's district is eliminated, but since he is pushing 70, he'll probably just retire.

Tom Price's 6th (Teal) isn't going blue anytime soon.  It could be a problem around 2020, though, but the new redistricting will be approaching by then.

Rob Woodall's 7th (Gray) has to shed quite a bit of population, now being 63% White and nearly all in Gwinnett County.  This is the district I'd worry about most going Blue in the decade, particularly if the White percentage keeps dropping.  The 22% who are Hispanic or Asian is a wild card, as many don't vote, at least not yet.

The New 11th (Green) is 60% White, with 10% the Hispanic/Asian wild cards.  Somehow, I can find no veteran State Senators from the district, so I'm not sure about the bench.  It's mostly suburban Republicans, though.

Westmoreland's purple 3rd is still safe for him, as are Graves' 9th (Northwest) and Broun's 10th (Northeast).  

On the east side, including Augusta, is the other open seat, the new 14th.

Now on to Washington, and their bipartisan incumbent protection map.

Photobucket
There it is.  

And the Seattle area is here:
Photobucket

In Eastern Washington, the two swing counties, Whitman and Spokane, are split up.  That's the only big difference.  McMorris Rodgers (Yellow) and Hastings (Red) are safe.  Herrera Beutler (Purple) now has to extend a bit further East, as it loses Longview, Pacific Co., and Olympia, making it much safer for her, probably going from Toss-Up to Lean R.  

Dicks' 6th (West), which needs to be made a bit safer for when he retires, as the Western lumber counties are trending a bit away from us, adds Pacific Co., Longview, and Olympia from the 3rd, loses some of S. Kitsap Co., as well as Central Tacoma, and remains a swingy Tilt D district.  

Reichert's 8th (Purple) gets much bigger, losing the Microsoft Area to the new 10th (Pink) and taking up nearly all of the non-Coastal Northern Coast Counties from Larsen, making his Green 2nd a bit safer in the process (he nearly lost this year).  This means Larsen needs to take up more Suburbs, making Inslee (Blue) take a bit of Seattle, moving McDermott (Gray) into some low-income suburbs as well as Seattle, and making Adam Smith, the new Armed Services chair, in light blue, take in the AFB and Army Base, as well as all of Tacoma.

jncca :: Redistricting in Georgia and Washington
Tags: , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

HFS, Adam Smith's the new ranking member of Armed Services?!
Pretty powerful paring with Norm Dicks as the Defense Appropriations cardinal. If they can't secure the new tanker for Boeing.... well, that would mean that defense procurement reform has made some progress...

yeah the top five
guys on the committee or something were wiped out

skelton and some others.  ortiz would've been chair if he'd campaigned.  reyes is chair of intel and he's the only one above smith

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)


[ Parent ]
Happy birthday!
You're legal! Except I guess 21 is really the fun one.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
my bday
was actually dec. 15 but i forgot to change it, as i had finals and then went to israel.  where i WAS allowed to drink :P

i see you aged as well

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)


[ Parent ]
Oh, America's drinking age.
I applied for Birthright my freshman year, but they ended up scrapping the entire trip from my college for some weird reason I never understood.

What's the Israeli drinking age? And is it even enforced? (Probably not, cf the fact that basically every Jewish holiday encourages you to get drunk)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
oh that stinks
birthright would have been fun. israeli politics are so strange...i got there and the same day a former president goes to jail for rape and the prime minister's corruption trial starts.

the drinking age is starting to be enforced. it's 18, and they're cracking down...kind of. it's still more like mexico than america with regards to getting drinks, but it's not lawless.

also, are we the only jews on here? i'd guess not, but i don't know for sure.  

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)


[ Parent ]
Nah, I think
Jews are probably the third-most overrepresented demographic here (after gays and students--I'm all three, yay!). I'm pretty sure site owner DavidNYC is one.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
ah yes
the babka is a dead giveaway :)

i'd assume MosheM  from the username as well, but i think gays are definitely more overrepresented on here.  i think the number of openly gay people on here is greater than the number i've met in my entire life

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)


[ Parent ]
Yup
You got it right, and I know Israeli politics as good as US politics, but after you know it, it's much less complicated than US politics

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

[ Parent ]
You know who would fit right in here
A young Barney Frank! He proudly described himself as the only left-handed gay Jew in the history of Congress. I'm left-handed, so at least I can fill one of the three minority criteria.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
im
a lefty as well!
and a jew.
straight though.

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

[ Parent ]
in 111th
it was:

skelton
spratt
ortiz
taylor
reyes
snyder

then smith.

i wonder if someone 7th in line has every jumped all the way to the top?

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)


[ Parent ]
That is pretty amazing.


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Thanks for Posting these maps
and your map of Washington state illustrates my point from the other day.  The natural push Eastward-because of the 10th seat in WA moves WA3 further East and makes it a safe GOP seat.  Hererra will ditch Thurston county (Olympia) and pickup republican area.

I see some sort of new 10th district in WA that wraps around Seattle.  This particular might split just a few more counties then the commission.  Just my feeling on that.  My sense is that Reichart (WA8) will end up in a favorable seat for him.


Agreed
I had been thinking a Spokane-centric district in Eastern Washington was likely, but a map like this makes a lot more sense.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
I am clueless on geography
in Eastern Washington.  The Spokane district has always been North/South as opposed to East/West but I have no idea what the most logical way is.  


[ Parent ]
Yes, we comment about something like this few days ago

Just in this map, S DelBene can run for the new WA-10 district. Like I tell you I would be not surprised of see a map like this.

We know not the district rating for this bid, but I think the new map will give:

D+5+ for WA-02
D+5+ for WA-10
R+low for WA-08
R+low for WA-03

And I think this new map would be not far from this.


[ Parent ]
Phil Gingrey
I was shocked to read that Phil Gingrey (d/o/b: 7/10/42) is "pushing 70," but I guess that's what a little "miss Clairol" will do!

Some illogical splits
Wenatchee and East Wenatchee are pretty much the same town.
Spliting Yakima from the rest of the Yakima Valley probably doesn't fly either

Dave Reichert
What would WA-8's new PVI be, approximately?
Also, how do you include your Congressional District and voter info at the bottom of the post like many people do?

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

Welcome to SSP!
Look on the right side of the screen, click on "TokenRepublican's Page", and then click "Profile." There's a box there that says "signature" where you can write in as much as you like. You actually just reminded me to update mine.

And yep, it does feel like there aren't any other Republicans here sometimes, but we do exist! And we're starting a GOP-focused version of this site in just a couple weeks!

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
not sure when you became 20
but happy birthday! and happy having associations with two congressional districts that you didn't before (?)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Thanks man
My birthday's in late December but I was a few days late changing my SSP age, which I guess was the last vestige of being a teenager for me. :( It seems like there's a lot of 19 and 20 year olds on this site for some reason. 1990 and 1991 were good years for swingnuts I guess.

I go to school in MA-08 and have split my childhood/early adulthood? (that was scary to type) between NH-01 and MA-03, where I'm registered. I feel stronger ties to Worcester though, which is why I just had the fightin' 3rd in my earlier sig line.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
yay class of '90!
I started reading this site back when I was 13 and have probably not gone four days without reading it since then.

20 years old, male, GA-12 (home), GA-10 (school); previously lived in CA-29, CA-28, CA-23, IL-06, IL-14, GA-01.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, I was really shocked when
they had that poll a while back and 20-somethings were a plurality. While lots of my friends are interested in politics, none of them are interested in the super-technical aspects, so I'm kind of surprised that there are so many college-age people here.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
How about those under 20?
Thanks for the help SSPers! I've been reading this site since the 2006 elections, when I was 12 going on 13 (my birthday is always RIGHT after elections, and I'm only 17 now). I just had never bothered to make an account. I  LOVE the redistricting maps on here, and check daily to see those as well as the daily breakdown of news from races. While I am a conservative Republican, as a high school debater, I enjoy intelligent discourse with those who I don't agree with, and this site offers plenty of that! I look forward to commenting and discussing!

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
I appreciate your saying so!
I was a self-identifying Republican in high school as well, and some less-than-friendly discourses with a few politically inclined people I knew who happened to be more conservative Republicans than I was wound up pushing me to the left. So, by the same token, as long as we're not pushing you to the right... ;)

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
People in the teens were #2 after 20-somethings I think.


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Yeah, it was the maps the lured me in too
Specifically, it was Nathaniel90's first set of redistricting diaries from sometime in 2009, which I'm still amazed that he was able to do in the pre-DRA era. Then I started reading the front page coverage later on, when I was looking for some close analysis of polling leading up to the 2009 elections. I was frustrated/jealous at first because of the heavily Democratic nature of this site, but I decided to make an account after I realized this was one of the few bastions of intelligent discussion in the blogosphere.


20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Add me to the under 20 club.
Now that I'm commenting here more frequently I thought I should fill out my sig as well. I'm 18, a math freshman in Germany and hope to move to the US and get into politics full-time once I'm done with college.


18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
Woah, I always thought you were from Montana.


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
I'm not from Montana,
but I have lots of contacts there and have interned and staffed for candidates there. And I follow MT politics closely, down to a local (PSC and so on) level.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
Thanks
I never knew how to make a signature here, didn't really try.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

[ Parent ]
Hard to tell
but it looks like your 2nd district has a lot of areas which aren't contiguous.  IIRC, water crossings are only permitted if there is a bridge linking the two parts.  

Of course, that doesn't explain why the existing 1st crosses Puget Sound, and there isn't even a ferry linking the two sides.    


I'm not aware of such a rule regarding water continuity
Sure, the Anne Arundel County portions of MD-01 are linked to the Eastern Shore by the Bay Bridge, and in MI-01, the Upper Peninsula and the northern part of the Lower Peninsula are linked via the Mackinac Bridge, but I don't think it's a requirement except in certain states.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
There is no such rule


[ Parent ]
Commision
Remember that a commission draws the maps in WA. I find it hard to believe that they would be as aggressive as you've made the map in Western WA. There is generally only one district that crosses the Sound and your split of the Olympic Peninsula strikes me as politically impossible.

32, M, MI-6, Iconoclastic Leftist

[ Parent ]
Actually, there is a ferry connecting the two sides of WA-01
Edmonds-Kingston -- and it is something of a commuter route, so there are people who live on the Kingston side who work on the Edmonds side.

Bridges have been discouraged on Puget Sound since the great swinging Tacoma Narrows bridge collapse of '40.  


[ Parent ]
I thought I remembered there being a ferry in Edmonds
Haven't been there in a number of years, but I was sure there's a ferry.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Hurting Barrow is a sticky situation.
They could be brought to court for voter dilution.  Their best chance is to shore up Scott and make the new district Republican.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Agreed
After Bartlett v. Strickland it's not clear whether Barrow's district is VRA-protected, but they are definitely opening themselves up for a lawsuit if they dilute the black % there (since African-Americans already outnumber whites in the GA-12 Democratic primary electorate).

Meanwhile, they can help Scott by putting Macon (or at least the black parts of Macon) in Sanford Bishop's 2nd District. But targeting Barrow will hurt Scott's chances, since there are a lot of black folks in those rural central and eastern Georgia counties. If anything, they will boost the black %'s in Districts 2 and 12 to make District 8 safe for any and all future Republicans and increase the likelihood of Barrow getting primaried by a credible black candidate.

Carving out a new GOP district in the suburban counties east of Atlanta (Gwinnett, Rockdale, Walton, Newton) should not be hard. But I'm guessing all five Democrats remain.

20 years old, male, GA-12 (home), GA-10 (school); previously lived in CA-29, CA-28, CA-23, IL-06, IL-14, GA-01.


[ Parent ]
I think it's pretty clear that GA-12
isn't protected by the VRA. It's all about political considerations now.  

[ Parent ]
In any case
No matter how confident they are in reelecting Austin Scott, giving him those rural black counties is a terrible idea and will not happen. Nor will they give the black/Democratic parts of Augusta to Broun and those parts of Savannah to Kingston. Remember that these same Georgia Republicans drew the state's current congressional map.

20 years old, male, GA-12 (home), GA-10 (school); previously lived in CA-29, CA-28, CA-23, IL-06, IL-14, GA-01.

[ Parent ]
One other thing
They already tried to redistrict Barrow out of existence (in '05) and cut off his main base, and that failed to shake him even in 2010.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
If you don't
mind I will give my view on Barrow and the state of Georgia right here.

1. Barrow is certainly in the crosshairs.  I believe Kingston will take the rest of Savanah / Chatham county.  That plus a minor swap of counties up North should be enough to do in Barrow.  Say Putman for Taleferio.

2. Yup Bishop gets AA section of Macon--he gets stronger and Austin Scott does too.  

3. There will be a new GOP seat in the North--not sure if its just North or Northwest or Northeast.  Gingrey keeps his seat but it does swing to the SW to Carroll and Heard county  


[ Parent ]
Perhaps
I am not sure how interested Kingston would be in having Savannah back in his district.  

[ Parent ]
Yeah, that's true
rdelbov loves talking about how Jesse Jackson would have a spaz attack if his district got 30,000 people from Kankakee County yet I don't see any comments about Jack Kingston getting Savannah.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
I think Barrow would absolutely
have a spatz attack if he lost both the AA's in Savannah and Augusta.  Those votes are the only reason he won in 2010.  He will struggle if he loses either community--perhaps lose.

Here's the difference between Barrow's and Jesse Jackson's situation.

1. Barrow is at the mercy of the republicans.  Any dilution in his seat is not his choice.  Jesse Jackson and the AA community of Chicago have a big chair at the redistricting table in Illinois.  Jesse Jackson will have a say as to whether his seat drops from 60% AA to 49% AA.  

2. Barrow is a perfect picture as to why Jesse Jackson Jr does not want to lose too many of his AA voters.  GA12 is 44% AA and has never come close to electing a black congressman.  Period end of story.  If Jesse Jackson Jr sees his AA% drop to 49% then history tells us his seat is in jeopardy.  Right now Jesse Jr. is coasting why should he put himself in the "toasting catagory".  He might not be toast but he will have to put his fighting gloves on.  I might add that the white democrats in Chicago under various mapsare not placed in the having to fight for their seats so why should should the three AA congressman be asked to go from 60%AA to below 50% while others keep their seats secure.  Dropping below 50% means more GE fights-more primary fights and the likelyhood that the seat may stay democratic but not keep an AA congressman.



[ Parent ]
.
1. Great point...that's why I didn't even mention Barrow once in my post. I was talking about Jack Kingston.

2. Are you seriously suggesting that South Side Chicago and non-Atlanta Georgia are remotely politically comparable?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Indeed
It is beyond ridiculous to pretend that the voting patterns of whites in Chicagoland and whites in rural south Georgia are even remotely similar.  

[ Parent ]
Okay lets
see how many congressional seats have been won by AA congressman in IL in minority/minority seats?  That would a big zero.  Georgia actually has elected an AA congressman- Sanford Bishop-to a seat without an AA majority.  So I guess your point is that folks in Il are racists who will not vote for an African American for congress?  So far not one black congressman has been elected in IL unless the district is 60%AA.

Now as to Jack Kingston taking on the AA voters in Savannah.  He is in a 63% McCain seat and I think he can easily handle a 4 or 5% move to the democratic side.  


[ Parent ]
...*speechless*
um, yes, I guess you're right that only the three AA-majority districts have elected AA congressmen, maybe (just perhaps) because IL-12, the most AA district aside from those three, is only 16% black. I love how you insist on sticking to some theory that the district has to be packed full of AA voters in order for AA congressmen to be safe. (Hint: that's not because of the VRA, it's because the current map wasn't drawn with a Democratic trifecta.)

By the way, all three of the IL congressmen represent districts where the electorate is roughly 60% black, and all of them won about 80% of the vote last year. So even in the worst year for IL Dems in a looooong time, that means they roughly split the white vote. You need to give a better justification to comparing that to Georgia where the white vote outside of Atlanta routinely gives less than 20% to Democrats.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Ruraldem can tell more.
But I still think they decide to leave Barrow alone.  His district is dangerous to mess with and they already failed to gerrymander him out of existence.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Barrow
I too think Barrow is in the crosshairs, by moving savannah into kingston's and or augusta into braun's seat you create a district that a rep would be favored in. His district is 50 white 44 black and is not a vra seat, it has about the minumum black percentage (low 40's) that keep a dem favored. Reducing the AA share from 44 to 40 and below, and a it now leans rep. I would guess they'll aim for low to mid 30's AA percentage. Macon goes to Bishop making his district black majority and safe for him, and Austin goes from 33 percent black to under 30 making his safe as well. You will have 4 black majority disticts. Louisiana with 7 and alabama with 7 currently have 1 AA district each, with alabama a few percentage points less AA than georgia and louisiana a few more, there is no VRA issue with this!  

[ Parent ]
Sure he is in the crosshairs.
But they should prepare for a bucket of cold water once they consider the ramifications of going after him (again).

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
But if you think they have a high chance to dismantle Barrow, then I have this to say:
Photobucket

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Barrow
Don't know how big a loss it would be to the dems, he is a nominal democrat as it is, voting with reps on most high profile issues. I actually think he is a candidate for a party switch this congress, considering what is going on in his state with 9 dems legislators switching parties from white rural districts like his and with redistricting likely making his seat more republican, he may come under pressure! Anyhow Georgia will likely be 10-4 rep one way or the other!

[ Parent ]
They already tried that.
They cut off his Athens base in 2005 and he won comfortably even this year.

9-5 would be the best safe strategy for them.  10-4 will get messy and maybe even illegal.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
The reasoning:
Cracking Barrow's district will give more AA communities to Scott (making things easier for a possible Marshall comeback) and to Kingston (who will likely object) and could land the legislature in hot water for voter dilution.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Also:
I've mentioned this several times, but they already tried to redistrict him out of existence and FAILED.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
The republicans have enough votes for make R+10+ every not-black district

Is this enough safe for the republicans? Well, I think the chance of they lose a R+10+ in Georgia can be so close to 0 after the last party switchs.

Even I think J Barrow can be a party switcher. If the republicans are trying to put more presure over his seat than over the seat of S Bishop is because they want J Barrow become republican, and it is because they know J Barrow would be dangerous for them, even in a R+5+ district.

I would not take his current D+1 district as a serious bid of unseat him thanks to redistricting, but this time they are higher risk.


[ Parent ]
yessssssssssss
you are my new favorite user

phoenix wright best ever

18, Dem, PA-7


[ Parent ]
Thanks!


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I wouldn't be so certain
From my limited understanding, Strickland dealt only with Section 2 of the VRA. If Barrow's district was weakened, it might run afoul of Section 5, where both the Court and Congress have been more likely to recognize "influence" districts.

BTW, does anyone know the most recent demographic data on his district? The minority population in Georgia has grown and it'd be interesting to see if non-Hispanic whites are still a majority in the district.


[ Parent ]
According to previous demographics data (2000 Census)
Barrow's district is 50.8% white, 44.5% AA according to it.  It would not surprise me if the district now had equal numbers of Caucasians and AA's.  If not, then the Caucasian demographic has merely a plurality there now.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
WA-8 and WA-10
Does anyone have any clue as to the new PVIs of WA-8 and WA-10? As a Republican, I'd be very happy with any map that took Reichert from a D+3 into a R+1 or R+2, made Jamie Herrera a R+3, and kept Cathy McMorris Rodgers and Doc Hastings in Safe R territory, even if it meant creating a D+10 or so WA-10. I think that's a likely scenario.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

i'd say
that is basically what this map gives. and washington does bipartisan incumbent protection, so making larsen likely d from lean d and a new likely d 10th while making herrera lean r from tossup and reichert tilt r from tilt d sounds about right.

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

[ Parent ]
Here's my final say on WA until next map
for state.  nice stats

Here's what each district must give up

1st 66685
2nd 91463
3rd 115002
4th 90280
5th 50404
6th 34024
7th 33851
8th 137385
9th 53174

I see a huge decision for redistricting is the Puget Sound.  Will Kitsap be attached to the east side of Sound.  Will the two island counties go east or west? Watch how they are handled and that will tell you alot about the new seat.

If you look at CD1 CD2 CD6 and CD9 you see they must give up 240K in population.  These districts have incumbents who got 55% or under in 2010.  Will they give up republican areas to make their seats more competitive or democratic areas to make them stronger D?  CD8 has 137K to surrender.  Will that seat become more republican or more democratic?

Is it possible to weaken CD8 plus keep CD1 CD2 CD6 & CD9 democratic and at the same time carve out a new seat that is liberal?  

I personally think there is a relationship between how democratic CD10 is and how republican CD8 will be.  If CD10 leans democratic you can expect CD8 to lean to the GOP.  Right now its tossup to barely lean GOP.  You might see two tossup seats but I think packing GOP voters into CD8 will please all the surrounding incumbent democrats.

 


[ Parent ]
Another view of WA redistricting
http://www.theolympian.com/201...

Suggested bottom line: good news for Hererra (or whatever is her married name) and bad news for Reichert

The state's leading expert on redistricting, Richard Morrill, an emeritus professor of geography at the University of Washington who specializes in urban demography, said a new 10th district most likely would be centered in Olympia.

snip

But Morrill said it's more likely Reichert's 8th District will shed parts of eastern Pierce County and shift its boundaries north.

Perhaps more importantly, the commission is bi-partisan (not non-partisan) - 2 Ds, 2Rs, one non-voting chair

The commission may make the redistricting in Washington appear less political than in other states, but Luke Esser, chairman of the state Republican Party, said that can be deceiving.

"Both parties have to think they hoodwinked the other," Esser said.

Which suggests different strategies for the 2 D members -- if they were to push for a more balanced (i.e. more evenly distributed PVIs), would demographics take care of the rest over the next decade?


This expert agrees with me on
3-4-5 but that's about it.  

He could be right but he does not have the new seat being mostly based in King County but rather a Thurston Pierce combo.  A seat based on ThurstonLewis couny plus eastern Pierce county might lean R.  I don't see that happening.

So who knows?


[ Parent ]
I see not the reasons for do a district based in Olympia

Olympia (the home of D Heck) is only the 21st city of Washington in population, and Thurnston County is only the 8th county and have 1/8 of the population of King County.

As example two cities in the top-10, Spokane Valley (7th city) in WA-05, and Kent (9th city) in WA-09, would be not the cities with biggest population in their current district.

And Kitsap County (6th county by population) would have not own district still.


[ Parent ]
When I sketched out
my 6th district you could do the coastal counties and Mason plus Kitsap then 2/3's of Thurston.  Kitsap & Thurston are roughly the same size.  If do not attach Kitsap & Thurston to the sixth you need to move into Pierce county.  I prefer keeping Kitsap completely in the 6th then attach part of Thurston to it.  That allows Pierce have WA9 completely in its boundaries except for 70K or so in Thurston.  Right now Tacoma area is split down the middle.

Of course if Thurston county is not split it will compose 40% of a district.  It will not predominate it unless you attach a bunch of minor counties.  

 


[ Parent ]
I'm looking to this from a different approach

WA-02
Snohomish (58% Obama)

WA-09
Pierce (west), based in Tacoma (the home of Adam smith). The county is 55% Obama. I think would be not difficult to do a 58% Obama (at least) district inside.

WA-01
Whatcom + Skagit + San Juan + Island + Clallam + Jefferson is 56% Obama.
+ part of Kitsap (including the home of Inslee)
+ the necessary of the area of Seattle are for do it at least 58% Obama.

WA-06
Wahkiakum + Pacific + Grays + Thurston + Mason + the majority of Kitsap + part of King county.
Still looking to this for have a 58% Obama or plus district.
Including all Kitsap and without nothing of King county we would have a 56.5% Obama area. My wish would be include here Federal Way. Geographically not trouble.


[ Parent ]
How about
plugging in those Murray-Rossi numbers or congressional race numbers for 2010?  I am a baseball fan and I looking for my St Louis Cardinals as they are trying to field a time for 2011.  Do I look at 2008 stats or what they did in 2010?

a. I can assure you that incumbent congressman in WA are not thinking 2012 will for certain look like 2008. So as I have mentioned several times before here the key question is what will 2012 look like?  I don't know for sure but experienced pols are not counting on a repeat of 2008 numbers.  

b. In the case of the larger counties you mentioned-Snohomish and Pierce that will be divided.  The partisan makeup of those counties vary a great deal.  Tacoma is hard core democratic but Eastern Pierce is quite heavily GOP.  Everett & surrounding areas are also heavily D but outer suburbs and rural areas trend republican.  So what area a congressman gets is very crucial.

In a nutshell I think Dicks and Smith will certainly get safe and in Smith's case a safer seat.  Larsen probably will not see a partisan change either way but as noted he was a 50% man in 2010.  I think Inslee's seat slips a bit and would be safe for him but it looks to be open in 2012.  The New CD10 will lean D but will not be a total lock while CD8 will move 2 to 4% in the republican direction. Not a lock but a bit safer.  


[ Parent ]
I looked at the maps and my crystal ball
is ready to tell all  (my opinion at least) the story of the Washington state redistricting.  I  believe the redistricting commission will let the chips fall where they may and follow mostly the pattern of the 1991 & 2001 Map.

2nd district will keep San Juan--Island WhatcomSkagit.  These four counties have been in the same congressional district since the 1950's.  You need to add 250K of Snohomish county to balance out the population.  The question is what 250K? This is a crucial question.  If you include Everett it makes the district more democratic but Congressman's Larsen would then be moved to CD1.  I say they move Everett to CD1 and this seats more to tossup catagory.

CD1 is now 450K or so in Snohomish plus another 220K or so of Northern King's county.  It is no longer in Kitsap county.  So CD1 does not cross the Puget sound and is only in two counties.  This seat leans stronger towards the democrats then before because of the Everett for Kitsap swap.

CD5 will stay the same except it will lose  enough of Walla Walla county to meet population standards. fairly safe R

CD4 will gain Walla Walla but lose klicktat and enough of Yakima to meet population standards.Safe R

CD3 is much safer GOP as it moves Eastward and loses all its part of Thurston plus the two coastal counties and part of Lewis county. safe R

CD6 drops down to get the coastal counties plus the balance of Kitsap and enough of Thurston county to meet population goals.  This seat moves to the lean D catagory.  Should be safe for Dicks forever.

CD9 picks up balance of Thurston plus CD6's part of Pierce and loses its part of King County.  Stronger D then before.

CD7 stays as it is and is strong D

Now what to you do with leftover Lewis-leftover Pierce and balance of King's county as you CD8 & CD10 to deal with.  You could have two tossup seats or one strong lean D seat and one strong lean R seat. I say CD8 picks up Lewis & Pierce parts plus the exurbs of King county.  This seat should strongely lean R and will quick several % safer for Sherif R.  CD10 will pickup the parts of CD1-CD9 that were given plus the inner suburbs of CD8 that were extracted.  This seat will lean strongely D.  Similar to CD1 & CD6 but not quite like CD9.  

The GOP actually will have a more solid edge in its 4 seats and if CD2 loses Everett it will have a better shot at that seat.  


I see not troubles for Larsen

It is pretty easy to leave him safe making WA-02 a only Sonomish County district. It would be 58% Obama (D+5).

Really easy and clean.

Why divide Sonomish county if the county has the size of one district and it is enough for safe him?

I see not reason.


[ Parent ]
There are these little
decisions to make in WA2.  The two Island counties (San Juan & Island) can easily be attached to either side of the Puget Sound.  If you keep them in WA2 then Larsen needs to ditch a fair amount of Snohomish county.  

WA2 could lose 80K or so of other suburbs and outer rural area that forms the southern and Eastern boundary of the county.  This area is fairly republican.  Or you could ditch Everett.  Everett is fairly democratic and losing it would hurt Larsen.  

In 2001 Larsen kept Everett.  So it comes down to where the Island counties go and then if they stay what area is lost.  

I might add that if WA1 loses Kitsap plus some of the inner suburbs of King county then gains 80K in rural Snohomish that seat moves noticeably to the right.  Inslee is rumoured to be running for Gov in 2012.  

So what ever swapping WA1 & WA2 did could be impactful.  Each seat needs to lose 80K  or so in population.  If each of them gives up 80K in GOP leaning area who gets it?

Follow my logic here and these are estimates

WA6 needs to lose 80K
WA1 needs to lose 80K
WA2 needs to lose 80K
WA8 needs to lose 120K
WA9 needs to lose 90K

If these 5 congressman all lose republican territory which makes WA1 WA2 WA6 and WA9 stronger D plus weakens WA8 sometime has to give?  This 450K in republican territory has to go somewhere?

This is all theory now but logic suggests you can make every seat safer for the D and then create another safe seat.  


[ Parent ]
They are not troubles for change

WA-02 taking all Snohomish.

WA-01 like I explain you in the other answer.

Geographically looks nice.


[ Parent ]
So what do we do with
the 420K that is in WA2 in San Juan-Island-Skagit and Whatcom counties?  If we give WA2 all of Snohomish goes this counties go West and become a new seat?

[ Parent ]
My map give you the answer

(to WA-01)

See a little down.


[ Parent ]
County Population sizes
Snohomish County has the population for 1 entire CD +
King County has the population for 2 entire CDs and nearly a third
Pierce County has the population for 1 entire CD +

[ Parent ]
David's application works still with the old data

but following 2010 data (711.000 for Snohomish county and 6724540 for the entire state), the population of the county would exceed by an acceptable margin for a CD district, inside the rank of the law.

If you wish not excess, you can give a little number of precints to the districts of King county. Im my map, as example to WA-10.


[ Parent ]
Maps for Washington
Looking to the redistricting and without enough well 2008 partisan data I would tend to something like this.

Photobucket

Photobucket

These are not fix maps for me. These include some lines for follow.

WA-01:
J Inslee (D) Bainbridge Island (Kitsap)
My stimation tell this district should by some point over 58% Obama D+5. This would be the goal.
Top-10 city: Seattle (1st)
Top-10 county: Whatcom (9th), part of King (1st), part of Kitsap (6th).

WA-02:
R Larsen (D) Lake Stivens (Snohomish)
Only Snohomish county (58% Obama D+5).
Top-10 city: Everett (6th)
Top-10 county: Snohomish (3rd)

WA-03:
J Herrera (R) Camas (Clark)
Mi stimation about this district give 48.22% Obama R+4. Enough good for the republicans.
Top-10 city: Vancouver (4th)
Top-10 county: Clark (5th) and part of Pierce (2nd).

WA-04:
D Hastings (R) Pasco (Franklin)
Top-10 city: Yakima (10th)
Top-10 county: Yakima (7th) and Benton (10th)

WA-05:
C McMorris Rodgers (R) Spokane (Spokane)
Top-10 city: Spokane (2nd) and Spokane Valley (7th)
Top-10 county: Spokane (4th)

WA-06:
N Dicks (D) Bremerton (Kitsap)
My stimation tell this district should by some point over 58% Obama D+5. This would be the goal again.
Top-10 city: Seattle (1st)
Top-10 county: Thurston (8th), part of King (1st) part of Kitsap (6th).

WA-07:
J McDermott (D) Seattle (King)
D+very high after make enough safe WA-01, WA-06 and WA-10.
Top-10 city: part of Seattle (1st)
Top-10 county: inside King (1st)

WA-08:
D Reichert (R) Auburn (King)
Still I can not give stimation about this district. The goal would be to leave a R+1 or as maximum.
Top-10 city: Federal Way (8th) and Kent (9th)
Top-10 county: part of King (1st) and little part of Pierce (2nd)

WA-09:
A Smith (D) Tacoma (Pierce)
Would be a 58% Obama district including the most democratic areas of the Pierce county (55% Obama).
Top-10 city: Tacoma (3rd)
Top-10 county: inside Pierce (2nd)

WA-10:
OPEN S Del Bene (D) Medina (King
Still I can not give stimation about this district.
The goal would be a new 58% Obama district (at least) inside King county (70% Obama) and based in Bellevue.
Top-10 city: Bellevue (5th)
Top-10 county: inside King (1st)

With this map the chance of move the limits between WA-07, WA-10 and WA-08 inside King county is enough good for assure the goals.

The map only divide Kitsap county, because Inslee and Dicks live inside, King county and Pierce county.


Damn nicely done.


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Thanks :)

I glad you like.

[ Parent ]
That's not a bad map.
Very interesting.  Thanks for posting.  Inslee is likely to run for Governor.  If not he would have a seat that is 85% new to him.

WA10 is technically a new seat but as King loses all of WA9 and nearly all of WA1 King county actually has diminished influence.  It has three congressman under this plan instead of four.  

The GOP has a decent chance to retain its 4 seats.

WA2-Larsen is still in a tossup situation.  He actually lost Snohobish county (or his part of it) in 2010. The Rest of the county-now new to him is slightly more democratic then his portion.  Yet as a whole Murray won the county 52-48.  That's the exact % Murray won Larsen's old WA2.  Larsen gave up democratic oriented Whatcom & Island plus tossup counties of Skagit and San Juan.  This looks like an even swap to me.  Exceot 60% of the territory is look to him.

In 1991 & 2001 the commission took very modest steps in redistricting.  I look for that in 2011.

The commission consists of two republicans-two democrats and a five commissioner chosen by the other four?


[ Parent ]
I glad you think it is interesting

Despite you see little areas geographically, the parts of Seattle inside WA-01 and WA-08 have decent population (close to 100K in both cases if I remember well). It is not enough for dominate the districts, but help to it. And the remaining areas of both districts are enough friendly for the democrats. I think Obama wins every county in both districts.

For WA-02 I think despite an important part of Snohomish would be new for Larsen, he lives inside the county and that would help him in the most democratic areas. He keep so narrowly his current D+3 district, but in Snohomish would be in D+5 (and a little better if some republican precincts go to WA-10 for have not deviations). I think this would be an improvement for him. Toss-Up? In the wave of 2010 still the democrats lose not a D+5 district. I think can be enough safe (if they are not scandals or corruption).


[ Parent ]
ups

..., the parts of Seattle inside WA-01 and WA-06 have...

[ Parent ]
one thing to note
and I failed to do was that Smith and Dicks will almost certainly get secure seats. Its something in everyone's best interest as they have sweet committee spots.  Dicks is ranking democrat on House apporiations and as a trivia note.  He was on the staff of Warren Magnuson when he was nearly chairman of Senate apporiations committee.  I think Senator M. became chairman the year Dicks was sworn in as US representative.

Smith won the election lottery as 6 or was it 7 senior members to me on Arm Services fell like redwoods on election day.  

So Democrats will be eager to keep these guys in office.  I often note that states see real benefits from guys-from either party-who hang onto safe seats and gather old man seniority.  Naturally the republicans will view every any move to help these two as a boon to republican incumbents as their voters will not be in CD8 or CD3 or CD whatever.


[ Parent ]
Democrats and the Boeing Company
will both want to keep Dicks and Smith safe.

Ranking member of Appropriations and Armed Services -- powerful positions for big ticket defense items. (Dicks also retains the ranking position on the Appropriations Defense subcommittee.)


[ Parent ]
I think your 10th also contains Carnation
the home of Darcy Burner. A Burner vs. DelBene primary would be tough, two good choices.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
True

It would be difficult (in a good looking redistricting) put DelBene and Burner in different districticts.

[ Parent ]
DelBene could be drawn into WA-01
It looks like her home in Medina is just barely on the WA-08 side of the current lines (while Burner is further east in Carnation.) That would allow each of them to run in open seats, assuming Inslee runs for governor.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
In this map

In this map surely would be easier to draw DelBene in WA-08 again.

[ Parent ]

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


About the Site

SSP Resources

Blogroll

Powered by: SoapBlox