| Everyone says Georgia can't eliminate John Barrow, but I don't really see why not. His district isn't VRA Protected like Sanford Bishop, so far as I know. And anyways, 4 out of 14 VRA for Georgia is better than, say, 1 out of 7 in Alabama.
Here's my take:
Chatham Co. only gave Obama a margin of 15,000 votes, and if you add in the two suburban counties, it is only 50-50. That plus all the GOP rural areas combine Barrow and Kingston into a Lean/Likely GOP district. (Light Blue) 60% White
from the 51% White Barrow's current district is
Sanford Bishop (Green) gets a 46% White district, a slight improvement. He adds Macon, making GA-8 completely safe for Austin Scott (periwinkle), who gets a 65% White district.
The new 1st district (Dark Blue) is 66% White and fit for someone like St. Sen John Bulloch or St Sen Jeff Chapman, who ran for Governor in 2010.
The 4th, 5th, and 13th remain similar
Phil Gingrey's district is eliminated, but since he is pushing 70, he'll probably just retire.
Tom Price's 6th (Teal) isn't going blue anytime soon. It could be a problem around 2020, though, but the new redistricting will be approaching by then.
Rob Woodall's 7th (Gray) has to shed quite a bit of population, now being 63% White and nearly all in Gwinnett County. This is the district I'd worry about most going Blue in the decade, particularly if the White percentage keeps dropping. The 22% who are Hispanic or Asian is a wild card, as many don't vote, at least not yet.
The New 11th (Green) is 60% White, with 10% the Hispanic/Asian wild cards. Somehow, I can find no veteran State Senators from the district, so I'm not sure about the bench. It's mostly suburban Republicans, though.
Westmoreland's purple 3rd is still safe for him, as are Graves' 9th (Northwest) and Broun's 10th (Northeast).
On the east side, including Augusta, is the other open seat, the new 14th.
Now on to Washington, and their bipartisan incumbent protection map.
There it is.
And the Seattle area is here:
In Eastern Washington, the two swing counties, Whitman and Spokane, are split up. That's the only big difference. McMorris Rodgers (Yellow) and Hastings (Red) are safe. Herrera Beutler (Purple) now has to extend a bit further East, as it loses Longview, Pacific Co., and Olympia, making it much safer for her, probably going from Toss-Up to Lean R.
Dicks' 6th (West), which needs to be made a bit safer for when he retires, as the Western lumber counties are trending a bit away from us, adds Pacific Co., Longview, and Olympia from the 3rd, loses some of S. Kitsap Co., as well as Central Tacoma, and remains a swingy Tilt D district.
Reichert's 8th (Purple) gets much bigger, losing the Microsoft Area to the new 10th (Pink) and taking up nearly all of the non-Coastal Northern Coast Counties from Larsen, making his Green 2nd a bit safer in the process (he nearly lost this year). This means Larsen needs to take up more Suburbs, making Inslee (Blue) take a bit of Seattle, moving McDermott (Gray) into some low-income suburbs as well as Seattle, and making Adam Smith, the new Armed Services chair, in light blue, take in the AFB and Army Base, as well as all of Tacoma. |
