Someone should do a GOP gerrymander

I want to see if it's even possible to draw a Republican majority anymore, given the growth in NYC relative to the rest of the state

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

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by: xcave @ Tue Jan 04, 2011 at 23:53:53 PM UTC

I would like to see that too.

I think the GOP could draw 1 GOP seat in Queens by combining all the GOP voters from Maltese and Padavan's old district into one district. They could even draw the Dem incumbents in those districts (Addabbado and Avella into the same district) to create an open seat for either GOP City Councilman Ulrich or Halloran to run in.

They could also try and create an Asian majority seat out of Toby Ann Stavisky district for City Councilman Peter Koo to run in.

As for LI I think they could shore up the GOP by extending some Queens districts (like Wilson's and Huntley's) up into LI to pickout any Dem pockets that exist there.

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by: izengabe @ Wed Jan 05, 2011 at 00:31:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I also think in a GOP Gerrymander

they can draw a GOP district in lower Westchester by splitting up Dem held districts 35, 37, 38 and 34. 35 & 34 were drawn for GOP Sen Spano and Guy Velella but are now Dem. 37 is Suzi Oppenhiemer's seat who barely won re-election after the recount and 38 used to be a GOP district that just flipped. When the map was drawn in 2000 it was done to create 3 GOP and 1 Dem.

It shouldnt be too hard for the GOP to redraw these districts to create at least 1 GOP seat here (and maybe even shore up Greg Ball's district a little bit too).

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by: izengabe @ Wed Jan 05, 2011 at 04:17:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think the GOP will try a draw a 34-28 map

Drawing a GOP seat in Queens and Westchester.

Redraw Buffalo to help Grisanti and to make Kennedy's district the Buffalo Dem dump.

Shore up LI by having one of the NYC seats move up to eat into and heavy Dem areas in Nassau.

Let Dem trouble makers who will cut deals witht he GOP like Carl Kruger and Diaz draw their own districts (hey why not cause havoc in the Dem caucus).

Maybe even draw an Asian seat in Queens to mess with  Stavisky and give the GOP a shot at a surprise pick up and to claim to favor diversity.

Big question is to they go after Valesky or make his seat a Dem dump to shore up Ritchie and surrounding Republicans and to they try and push their luck and go for 2 Westchester seats.

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by: izengabe @ Wed Jan 05, 2011 at 19:18:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Very Nice

Thanks! It's all nice theoretically, but I doubt Shelly would go to the courts, he needs to keep the barely veto proof assembly, he'll probably go for the same deal, and you know, national or state Dems aren't the boss, it's basically Shelly, I doubt Cuomo will fight him on this.
By the way what are the final numbers for the new assembly?

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

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by: MosheM @ Tue Jan 04, 2011 at 23:59:47 PM UTC

Agreed

And furthermore I think both Cuomo and Silver would prefer to see GOP control of the Senate than have Sampson (as his corruption baggage) and the Amigos back in charge.

Watch for the same deal that was cut in 2000 to be in place for 2010 redrawing. With maybe a fig leaf of passing a Koch backed non partisan redistricting bill for 2020 when all parties involved in protecting their fiefdoms will most likely be long gone.

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by: izengabe @ Wed Jan 05, 2011 at 00:36:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Here's an interesting question

to me at least.  How far ahead of the GOP nominees for US senate & Gov did republican state senate candidates run?  I believe the republicans won every state senate  seat in Nassau and Suffolk county but Cuomo Schumer and Gillbrand won those counties by a ton.  

That's one reason why I think we will see a compromise US house seat map in NY.  You can plug in the Obama 2008 numbers and see a 25-2 sweep for the democrats but that underestimates the generic GOP strength in the state.  The five upstate wins and the near defeats of three other democratic congressman shows there is still a generic GOP vote in parts of NY.  

Let each party take a hit on losing a seat then protect incumbents or try to protect incumbents. I am still amazed that the republicans were down to two US house seats in NY.  Historic.  That has to be an long time low.

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by: rdelbov @ Wed Jan 05, 2011 at 01:07:30 AM UTC

Yes

And what about Dems having 6 seats in Florida?...

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

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by: MosheM @ Wed Jan 05, 2011 at 01:22:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Believe it or not

Florida got its 7th & 8th  congressional district in 1952.  So Florida's total for democrats is the lowest since 1950 or so.  Not an all time low like NY at 2 GOP as I suspect in 1856 there was more then two republicans in NY when they 1st appeared on the ballot.  Your point is very well taken.  

Florida with only 6 house democrats in a state the President carried is stunning.  Yes you can say the GOP did well in the 2002 redistricting in Florida and elsewhere.  Yet you also have to deal with the Presidental map where you see all the Red & Blue counties.  Even in a state like IN that was controlled by democrats in 2000 and was a 50-50 in 2008 the democrats carried 3/9 congressional seats.  IN MO where a compromise was in place another 5050 state-it was 3/9 congressional seats for Obama/Biden.  The democratic strength is centered in urban areas in most states. That hurts on redistricting.  

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by: rdelbov @ Wed Jan 05, 2011 at 01:58:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Florida

There is one thing having two thirds and then there's another thing like having nearly four fifths in a swing state like Florida.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

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by: MosheM @ Wed Jan 05, 2011 at 02:23:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Can't last forever

And it will be hard to perpetuate with the new standards that the legislature will likely be required to follow.  

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by: andgarden @ Wed Jan 05, 2011 at 02:50:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

six looks alot like

a low water mark.

Of course stats are just stats.  4-0 KS seems odd stat wise as does 5-0 CT.  Someone drew a 53-0 CA map here and MA is 9-0.

If we see a 8-0 MD map we revisit 19-6 in Florida.  
 

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by: rdelbov @ Wed Jan 05, 2011 at 03:23:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

13-0 North Carolina

I actually was able to draw a 13-0 Democratic North Carolina map. It was not easy! They were basically all 50-49 Obama seats.

Of course, in reality, my North Carolina map (which I'll post soon) is a 9-4 Republican delegation.

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by: roguemapper @ Wed Jan 05, 2011 at 10:36:27 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

9-4 is likely.

Hopefully, AG Cooper is ready to watch the process like a hawk.

Still, what the hell is any state allowed to do partisan redistricting without any say from the Governor.  WTF were they thinking?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Wed Jan 05, 2011 at 10:54:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

New York seems to be handing over all its seats to Florida, New York went from 45 to 27 and in FL it's gaining the amount that NY lost

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

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by: MosheM @ Wed Jan 05, 2011 at 02:26:51 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Might as well be

There are a lot of New Yorkers down here (a huge chunk of them retirees of course)

20, Ind, Fl-13 & Fl-6 (college)

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by: MikeFL @ Wed Jan 05, 2011 at 03:55:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I absolutely think

that Cuomo should veto all redistricting plans, no matter how much the Assembly whines.  

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by: andgarden @ Wed Jan 05, 2011 at 01:21:13 AM UTC

The major corruption in NY redistricting

remains partisan abuse of the 10% population deviation between state legislative districts permitted by the NYS Constitution.  That ought to be a lot less, 2% or under.  No one cares about districts crossing county borders or other agrarian age considerations these days.

I'm not persuaded that incumbency or pork is what is keeping Republicans in control of the NY state Senate anymore.  The voters are keeping it out of Democratic hands so that they have to shape up as a Party.

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by: Baystater @ Wed Jan 05, 2011 at 07:28:37 AM UTC

That's begun.

The worst of them, Monserrate and Espada, are bye-bye.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Wed Jan 05, 2011 at 07:33:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hopefully

we can kiss goodbye to corrupt homophobe Ruben Diaz Sr. and his equally corrupt colleague Carl Kruger very soon.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

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by: ehstronghold @ Wed Jan 05, 2011 at 07:53:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yep, once those two are gone.

The NY Dem Senate will be redeemed.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Wed Jan 05, 2011 at 07:58:38 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

When

are they up for re-election?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Wed Jan 05, 2011 at 07:59:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

NY Senators

are up for re-election every 2 years.  I don't think Diaz Sr. or Krueger are going anywhere.  Diaz Sr is the father of the Bronx Borough Pres, and Krueger is pretty entrenched.

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by: edtorres04 @ Wed Jan 05, 2011 at 13:54:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm glad Krueger is entrenched

I like her. Wish that jackass Kruger would GTFO though.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

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by: sapelcovits @ Wed Jan 05, 2011 at 14:14:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not Liz

I was assuming that you guys were talking about Karl Krueger.

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by: edtorres04 @ Wed Jan 05, 2011 at 14:48:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

No, I was being a douche

pointing out the difference between Liz Krueger (e) and Carl Kruger (no e). Sorry, I just like being a stickler. (and yes, people on here are free to poke fun at any typos I make.)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

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by: sapelcovits @ Wed Jan 05, 2011 at 14:58:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

haha

Yeah I need to learn to spell.  

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by: edtorres04 @ Wed Jan 05, 2011 at 15:56:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Kruger

Wanting Kruger to lose is like a democrat (like Markos) should want that Bobby Bright should lose, if Kruger isn't going to be the state senator there, it's going to be, either a very conservative other Democrat or a very conservative Republican which is more likely, as it is the most Republican district in the state.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

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by: MosheM @ Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 05:10:45 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oh, didn't know that.

Ok, then Diaz.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 05:12:36 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm well aware of that

I also don't really care.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

---

by: sapelcovits @ Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 05:14:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

While i - do

Because of the same reason as the above mentioned Bright in Alabama - i prefer a candidate who would vote the way i think correct sometimes to those who never will. And i don't give a damn about "ideological purity" of any party, especially when, as is in US there are only 2 of them. Would there be, say, 8, and parliamentary system - i could care about that.

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by: smoltchanov @ Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 08:20:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't really care that much about a Democratic majority in NY

at least not until the bullcrap is settled out and the Dem caucus doesn't have people defecting all the time. What I do care about is marriage equality, and homophobe Kruger doesn't help with that.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

---

by: sapelcovits @ Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 10:18:57 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I also care about reform

and anyone in either party, or for that matter an independent or another party, who favors and embodies reform is alright with me, whereas corrupt politicians of either party suck.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 11:10:30 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

not true!

Kruger's Brooklyn district is not a GOP district. In fact very Dem distict (although more working class conservative Dems). It doesnt even have a single GOP elected official in it. I would be very surprised if a Republican won it let alone a Conservative one.

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by: izengabe @ Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 20:46:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Um

McCain got his highest percentage in the state in this district, I live a few blocks away from there, it's full of very conservative Orthodox Jews, they don't care about Dems in general even though they're registered as Dems. They don't even identify as Democrats, they vote for the person, just ask assemblyman Hikind why he got more votes on the GOP line than on the Dem line in '08 even though he's a Dem.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

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by: MosheM @ Fri Jan 07, 2011 at 02:01:35 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Really?

Wasn't John Sampson (who is as crooked as the come) just re-elected as the Democrat Seante leader? Did he just kick Jeff Klein (who is not a crook) out of the leadership.

Hasn't it gotten so bad the 4 Democrat State Senators bolted the Dems and will to form their own legislative conference.

And yes this was all done with Cuomo's blessing. Here's the article:

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/l...

So if you think Cuomo would veto a redisticting bill that would turn his allies in the GOP majority against him while helping a crook like Sampson get back into power you are dreaming.

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by: izengabe @ Wed Jan 05, 2011 at 18:06:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This indie D caucus is kinda strange?

what gives with this?

On a side note about vetoing redistricting bill in NY.  I suspect Speaker Shelton would freak out if some judge started to draw 150 house seats.  I am sure it would still be solid democrat but many of his cronies would be out of seats?

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by: rdelbov @ Wed Jan 05, 2011 at 18:51:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Surprised by Savino.

She has always impressed me as someone with leadership ambitions and a team player.  On the other hand she was quite clear when I heard her speak that the biggest mistake the Democrats made was an unwillingness to clean house and tell folks like the Gang of Four to get lost the second they tried a shakedown.  She was very frustrated by how things went down after that.  As were a lot of us as well.

The move was widely seen to benefit both Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos (R-L.I.), as well as Democratic Gov. Cuomo, since the dissident senators endorsed Cuomo's reform agenda.

Endorsing Cuomo's "reform agenda"?  Ummm.. No. Cuomo's itch to go after the unions is not exactly making him popular.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

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by: Taget @ Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 01:15:08 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Add a seat

Would it help the Republicans to add a seat to the Senate, helping to preserve an upstate seat for themselves?

Joe Cooper

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by: Joe Cooper @ Wed Jan 05, 2011 at 19:58:58 PM UTC

They

did that last time....

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

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by: ehstronghold @ Wed Jan 05, 2011 at 20:15:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Adding a seat would be a smart move on their part

When the GOP added a seat in 2000 they at a GOP LT Gov so the tie went to the GOP.

Now with Cuomo as Gov and a Dem Lt Gov a tie goes to the Dems.

They could even do it under the banner of good governement as a way to prevent the gridlock that happened when the seante was tied do to Espada.

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by: izengabe @ Wed Jan 05, 2011 at 20:28:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

NOPE

The Republicans had a 34-27 advantage I believe going into the 2002 redistricting cycle.  They added a new seat down in NYC to avoid carving one upstate.  Ever since 2004, however, the Democrats have been whittling away at the GOP majority until it disappeared entirely in 2008.  Now, if Cuomo appoints one of them to a state position like Spitzer did in 2006 and/or the Buffalo senator who is registered as a Democrat caucuses with them instead of the GOP, we might be back in business again.

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by: jsramek @ Wed Jan 05, 2011 at 22:05:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It was 36-25 in 2000

and 37-25 after post redisticting election in 2002.

So the GOP adding a seat worked to their advantage. Furthermore the thought at the time was that with a GOP Lt Gov the Dems would need to win 32 seats for a majority instead of 31. It raised the bar for them by 1 seat at the time.

Now with a Dem Lt Gov adding an extra seat would raise the Dems's bar for regaining the Senate again. Right now they only need to pick up 1 seat to take over the Senate. Adding an extra seat would mean they would need to pick up 2 seats.

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by: izengabe @ Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 20:59:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And remember

The GOP drew the maps in 2000 for 37 GOP seats. 5 of those seats are now in Dem hands.

So they have room to rework the map moving Republican voters out of some of those lost 5 disticts and using them to shore up Republicans elsewhere.

Last time around they drew 2 Queens seats. This time around they will most likely draw only 1 and try to shore up LI border districts.

Right now there are no GOP seats in southern Westchester area. Look for the GOP to redraw the 3 formerly GOP districts their into at least 1 if not 2 GOP districts.

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by: izengabe @ Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 21:06:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Even if they do, they're running on borrowed time

They can't make Lee Zeldin safe without serious gerrymandering, and population trends are going to drag seats towards NYC. Also, Carlucci's victory shows that even seats that aren't heavily Democratic are in danger in an open seat situation.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

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by: sapelcovits @ Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 23:33:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]