Shows

Is Shows related to former Congressman Ronnie Shows? If so, how?

Wikipedia says that Ronnie Shows was born in Moselle MS, which is in Jones County.

In the Clarion-Ledger, it says that State Rep. Shows is from Ellsville MS, which is also in Jones County.

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by: RuralDem @ Wed Dec 29, 2010 at 23:54:48 PM UTC

Party Switching in the South

Is all this party switching in the south primarily a result of the looming redistricting?

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by: gutter2d @ Thu Dec 30, 2010 at 00:55:48 AM UTC

Probably

There are some who will say they're all switching simply because of redistricting.

I do believe there are a few who switched for power, though I actually believe a lot of these are really because they feel so out of touch with the Democratic Party.

Let's take Georgia for example. Most of these switchers have been rumored for years. It wasn't like the Democrats had a shot at taking back either chamber this year. These switchers had no opposition in the Primary or General.

I know a lot of former Conservative Democratic legislators came out for Barnes. Many of them had either been quiet over the past few years, or started supporting Republicans. In a way, I think he, along with Ken Hodges, were thought of as the last hope for Conservative Democrats statewide for a long time. Both lost by a decent margin.

I just find it hard to believe that someone like Hanner and Greene woke up the next morning and said "hey, I need to switch to save my seat". These guys have been in the legislature for decades. They were both around in 2002 and 2004 when a lot of switching occurred and the GOP took over.

Now, someone like McKillip, who represents a staunchly liberal Athens district, is only looking for power.

So yeah, I'd say it's a mixture. Some switched for pure power, some in hopes of saving their seats, and, some simply because they felt they no longer had a home in the party.

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by: RuralDem @ Thu Dec 30, 2010 at 01:11:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes!

I made some calculations. IMHO - there is still 2-3 conservative Democrats in Mississippi's Senate, somewhat more (about 5-6) - in House. In Louisiana - 4-5 in Senate and slightly more - in House. Very few - in Alabama (after 2010 bloodbath) and Georgia. May be - few in Arkansas and Tennessee, but it's difficult to get data about ideological inclinations of legislators in those states. 1-2 moderate conservatives in Virginia. And that's almost all that temains of this faction....)))

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by: smoltchanov @ Thu Dec 30, 2010 at 06:11:01 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes!

I made some calculations. IMHO - there is still 2-3 conservative Democrats in Mississippi's Senate, somewhat more (about 5-6) - in House. In Louisiana - 4-5 in Senate and slightly more - in House. Very few - in Alabama (after 2010 bloodbath) and Georgia. May be - few in Arkansas and Tennessee, but it's difficult to get data about ideological inclinations of legislators in those states. 1-2 moderate conservatives in Virginia. And that's almost all that temains of this faction....)))

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by: smoltchanov @ Thu Dec 30, 2010 at 06:13:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sorry for double-post

Sometimes it's difficult to understand whether first attempt was successful. Please delete the secondone.

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by: smoltchanov @ Thu Dec 30, 2010 at 06:20:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

For whatever reason I cannot recall the last time

we had a state legislator change from democrat to republican in TN.  I am sure it has happened but I don't recall it.

You would think they would be jumping this year.  The republicans control the redistricting process here for the 1st time in forever.  On the state legislative level the lines have been against the republicans and I suspect they will be drawn in such a way to keep the GOP in control for generations.  

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by: rdelbov @ Thu Dec 30, 2010 at 13:29:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well, they are within their rights....

They waited for that so long...))))

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by: smoltchanov @ Thu Dec 30, 2010 at 15:35:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Same for

NC as the lines have been draw to the GOP's disadvantage for years in that state.

There was a map released for state legislative seats in TN-I believe it was 1991-where the 38 republican incumbents were placed in 18 house districts.  Nearly every incumbent was either placed in a district with another incumbent (in several cases three were in the same seat). In addition those who did not have to move found themselves with lots of new territory. There were 18 vacant legislative seats that were likely to go GOP but the house leadership had decided to be a little mean to repubicans.  Legislative jobs pay 12K a year and its hardly worthwhile to move to keep legislative seats.

As it happened the democrats submitted a new plan only causing 4 republicans to loss their seats- plus it keep must incumbents in their districts.  The plan was a complete disaster for the GOP but the deal got a bipartisan vote.  

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by: rdelbov @ Thu Dec 30, 2010 at 16:26:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

2005 - State Senator Don McLeary (Madison, Gibson, and Carroll)- D to R

In 2005 State Senator Don McLeary switched parties (D to R) citing the Ophelia Ford special election controversy in Memphis as the catalyst. In actuality his motivation was based upon the fact that he could read the "tea leaves" and estimate that being a Republican in 2006 for his re-election bid was a better bet after the 2004 election results. He was narrowly defeated in 2006 by Jackson attorney Lowe Finney, for the only gain in the State Legislature for the Ds in the very favorable 2006 cycle. This crass opportunist/career politician wannabe went on get crushed in a Republican primary for Madison County Mayor to the incumbent, Jimmy Harris, and followed that up by being defeated by a solid margin in his 2010 rematch with Finney.

As for new switches in Tennessee, none of the few remaining rural conservative white Democrats have much to gain in joining the huge Republican majority (65-34) that doesn't need them. In fact, most of these types of Democrats stand a better chance of winning re-election, if they seek it, by remaining Democrats, as few have the vitality and/or campaign skill sets to survive an almost certain Republican Primary challenge after a switch.

Democrat: TN-8

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by: wtndem @ Thu Dec 30, 2010 at 17:43:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I forgot about

McLeary.  TN for many years under Lt Gov Wilder had a bipartisan alliance that controlled the state senate.  McLeary's switch in early 2006 would have allowed the GOP majority in the state senate to actually organize the senate and select a new LT Gov.  McLeary lost which left the GOP at only 18 votes or was it 17 votes.  Either way one GOP senator was siding with Wilder so the actual GOP majority was stymied.

Then Rosalind Kurita (democrat Montgomery county) voted to seat Ramsey as Lt Gov.  She stayed a democrat but her vote allowed the actual republican majority to organize the Senate.

Confused?  So was I.  In 2008 Ms. Kurita runs for re-election as a democrat.  She had provided the key vote the GOP takeover of the Senate.  She won her democratic primary by less then 20 votes but then the democratic state executive committee declared her foe the nominee.  

Ms Kurita lost her seat in a write in effort in Nov 2008 but the republicans picked up several extra seats to secure a firm majority in the State senate.

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by: rdelbov @ Thu Dec 30, 2010 at 19:41:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

MS senate

Isn't the senate tied now at 26? If Bryant can vote then there is a GOP majority, or the tie is including him?

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

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by: MosheM @ Thu Dec 30, 2010 at 13:03:40 PM UTC

26-25 Democratic

Nunlenee seat is open now. But it will be 26-26 soon

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by: smoltchanov @ Thu Dec 30, 2010 at 15:36:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bryant

Is Bryant included in the numbers?

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

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by: MosheM @ Thu Dec 30, 2010 at 19:05:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

No

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by: smoltchanov @ Thu Dec 30, 2010 at 19:26:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bryant

Can he vote or not? If yes, this means that the GOP will have a majority

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

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by: MosheM @ Thu Dec 30, 2010 at 20:59:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Tie

http://mshistory.k12.ms.us/art...

"The lieutenant governor presides over the state Senate and votes in the event of a tie. He or she also serves as a member of the Senate Rules and Joint Legislative Budget committees, appoints standing committees of the Senate, and refers all bills to committees for consideration."

Having the ability to refer all bills is fairly important as well.

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by: RuralDem @ Thu Dec 30, 2010 at 21:40:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think - this rule will rarely be needed

There is still a couple of conservative Democratic state Senators who will gladly vote with Republicans on most important bills.

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by: smoltchanov @ Fri Dec 31, 2010 at 05:35:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Looking to this

The democrats from New York, Colorado and Oregon have so clear example for work.

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by: abgin @ Thu Dec 30, 2010 at 15:01:39 PM UTC

It's a nice thought

The problem is that nearly any Republican able to make it through a Republican primary these days is probably too conservative to make the switch. While a huge number of Democrats call themselves moderates or even conservatives, a vanishingly small number of Republicans now do.

Also, Colorado has term limits for its legislative chambers, which results in far fewer entrenched incumbents who can switch parties and get voters to follow them. The same goes for a number of other states--Missouri & Maine off the top of my head, but there are plenty of others.

Additionally, gerrymandering in most states has reduced to a very small number the amount of seats swingy enough for their representatives to contemplate a switch.

And finally, for a variety of historical reasons, the South is a region that is particularly flexible when it comes to party labels. In places like the Midwest, party labels usually do indicate clear ideological lines which even the most crassly political are usually loathe to cross.

In other words, I wouldn't expect a party-switching craze to sweep the nation's state legislative chambers.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

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by: arealmlc @ Thu Dec 30, 2010 at 17:50:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm sure they are republicans what love the own seat

until this extreme. If I learn something from the politicians of right is what they have low principle obstacles for do things like this. I would work finding it, like the republicans are doing in other states.

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by: abgin @ Fri Dec 31, 2010 at 02:28:05 AM UTC

[ Parent ]