| Merry Christmas to everyone who celebrates it, whether on 25 December or otherwise. While waiting for the ham to be done, I drew up a map of Nevada with four shiny new districts, just what the U.S. Census Bureau ordered.
The way I drew it, we're basically looking at a 2-2 map, with three if not all of those districts being somewhat "soft" (potentially competitive in the right cycle) due to the quirks of Nevada geography, politics, and geopolitics. Some people on other threads (the Missouri one, for example) have suggested that Gov.-elect Sandoval and the Republicans will probably be satisfied to shore up Rep.-elect Heck somewhat in exchange for letting the Democrats have their way, to an extent, with the new NV-04. I'm inclined to agree. Also, drawing a safe 1-3 map for a rapidly blueing state like Nevada is not terribly easy.
I don't usually go out of order, but we should probably start at the top here (geographically rather than numerically) because Nevada is an oddly shaped state.
NV-02 (green, safe lean Republican)
Rep. Dean Heller, a Republican, is thought to be prepping a Senate bid against Sen. John Ensign, the scandal-tarnished Republican incumbent whose unreliability and moral flexibility has been a thorn in the side of Republican leadership in Nevada and in Washington for several years now. If he decides to forgo a bid for statewide office in favor of running for reelection, I doubt he'll have a problem here. Washoe County may be swingy, but Heller is popular, and any Republican can run up crushing margins in the cow counties. If Heller runs for Senate in 2012, though, Republicans and Democrats alike will want to put a lot of effort into recruiting top-tier candidates here.
NV-01 (blue, safe Democratic)
Vegas, baby! This is Rep. Shelley Berkley's district, and she's considered the likeliest Democrat to run for Ensign's seat in 2012. I figure she'll vacate, and it's just as well, because although Nevada isn't a VRA preclearance state, the Department of Justice may lean on the incoming Sandoval administration to ensure a minority-majority seat. Latinos are actually about a quarter of Nevada's population, they're the fastest-growing demographic, and it's pretty easy to draw a compact Latino-plurality district. This district is actually 28% white, 14% black, 6% Asian, and 49% Latino, going off 2008 population estimates, and I'll bet dollars to doughnuts it's outright Latino-majority in the new census data. Sandoval himself may do okay here, but it's a safe Democratic district.
NV-03 (purple, likely Republican)
Rep.-elect Joe Heck edged Rep. Dina Titus, flipping the present "fair fight" incarnation of this district from blue to red, last month. One of Sandoval's top priorities will be shoring him up. Adding a bunch of cow counties and consolidating the district's hold on white-collar Clark County precincts is a decent way of accomplishing that. While Sharron Angle might lose this district, and Titus could conceivably take it back, it now tips pretty firmly in Heck's favor.
NV-04 (red, likely Democratic)
One of the big reasons why the current NV-03 is a swing district is that it includes both Democratic and Republican areas along with some subdivisions that go both ways (no, not like that, most of those are pretty heavily Democratic). I gave most of those Republican areas to my NV-03, or at least I tried to, while NV-04 takes over most of the Democratic areas, centering around Spring Valley. It's a mostly suburban district, though it includes just a bit of rural Clark County up Highway 95. Titus or another strong Democrat with a suburban base should be pretty solid here except in particularly gruesome cycles, although a socially moderate or libertarian Republican could potentially win it.
As a Christmas bonus, I'm also going to repost my revised and updated map for Missouri, which shrinks to eight districts in 2012's redistricting, without much commentary:
This isn't necessarily the most favorable map Democrats can possibly get, but it's probably the most favorable map they're likely to get in 2012. (There's a whole discussion about this on the other diary.) It's probably a 3-5 map, with Democratic Rep. Russ Carnahan's MO-03 (purple) likely playing host to a deathmatch between Carnahan and Republican Rep. Jo Ann Emerson of Cape Girardeau in 2012.
A few quick notes: Democratic Rep. Lacy Clay's MO-01 (blue) is 48% white, 47% black, remaining VRA-compliant. I was of the school of thought saying it couldn't be done without throwing Carnahan overboard, but there you have it. Carnahan's share of St. Louis County consists almost entirely of precincts that voted for then-Sen. Barack Obama in the 2008 presidential election, so I think Mr. Local Boy has a good base there. And Republican Rep. Todd Akin's home in rich white Town and Country remains in his district of MO-02 (green).
Not much to add here. Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver in MO-08 (slate blue), renumbered from the current MO-05, still doesn't get a VRA district, but he's a good politician who is popular with both white and black Democrats in Kansas City. I resisted the urge to dismember Republican Rep.-elect Vicki Hartzler's MO-05 (yellow), renumbered from the current MO-04, because I didn't think the Republicans in the Missouri state legislature would let such a plan get to Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon's desk.
Hope everyone is dividing their time as they see fit between family, friends, and politics. Thoughts on either map are welcome and appreciated. |
