Google Ads


Site Stats

Maps of Colorado Elections

by: Inoljt

Fri Dec 24, 2010 at 11:19 AM EST


To follow up the series of posts on Colorado, I've posted a few recent presidential elections in the state (courtesy of the New York Times). Each map comes with some brief analysis.

Photobucket

Boosted by a Democratic National Convention held in Denver, Senator Barack Obama wins a thorough victory in the ultimate swing state of 2008. The Democratic candidate does especially well in the Republican-leaning suburbs of Denver - winning several outright and dampening margins in Douglas County and Colorado Springs.

More below.
Inoljt :: Maps of Colorado Elections
Photobucket

Written off early as a sure Republican victory, Colorado surprises pundits in 2004 with a surprisingly strong Democratic performance. It is one of the few states where Democrats do better than in 2000 as they pick up the 2000 Ralph Nader vote.

______________________________________________________

Photobucket

Governor George W. Bush performs well throughout the Rocky Mountains in 2000, and Colorado is no exception. With Green Party candidate Ralph Nader pulling off a substantial bloc of liberal voters, Mr. Bush even cracks the Democratic "C" that composes the Democratic base of Colorado.

______________________________________________________

Photobucket

Conservative Colorado returns to form in 1996; President Bill Clinton loses the state by the barest of margins as conservative Ross Perot voters go Republican. Republican Bob Dole wins based off Republican strength in Colorado Springs and rural Colorado.

______________________________________________________

Photobucket

Surprise! - reliably Republican Colorado votes Democratic for the first time in a generation, and for the first time in a competitive race since the days of Harry Truman. To be fair, this map somewhat overstates Democratic strength: Republican margins are dampened by Ross Perot's strength amongst conservatives.

--Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/  
Tags: , , , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

Maps of Colorado Elections | 23 comments
Thanks for posting maps
I usually don't do state wide commentary--more interested in redistricting but since I have a CO comment here goes.

Colorado is classic or representative of recent elections.  The Democratic vote is anchored in Boulder & Denver.  There are some university hotspots.  In CO there is ski resort democratic hotspots that we also saw in Utah and I guess perhaps in a few other Rocky Mountain states.  

Then you have rural counties with higher hispanic numbers plus in Co the old mining/steel mill town/county of Pueblo.  That's your democratic base with several large  suburban counties that swing back and forth that are crucial deciding the statewide winners.

My interest is CO3 which is the linchpin of redistricting in CO.  The GOP is strong around Mesa County and in the west while the democrats win the ski county of Pitkin.  Plus they win in Pueblo county.

I looked at the 2004 & 2010 congressional races.  They are near mirror images except there was a 3% district wide move to the GOP candidate except there was a 6% move towards Tipton in Pueblo county.  That was the McInnis pattern when he was congressman in CO3.  He ran well ahead of the democrats in Pueblo county and basically had the seat locked up.  Tipton is not there yet-obviousily-but Salazar's weakness there is not a good sign for future races.  That plus the Mesa area is growing twice as fast as the rest of the district.

The Denver suburbs are trending D at least though
also, due to Ft. Collins' fast growth, I'd imagine CO-04 will contract a bit and drop some R counties.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Perhaps they'll draw Ft. Collins out...
Of CO-04 to shore up Gardner? We'll see...

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
But it has to go somewhere.
If they really want to strengthen Gardner, they might have to screw over Tipton.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
The only place for it to go
would be CO-02. This could make sense--especially if CO-04 adds Douglas County to make up for the population loss.
[ Parent ]
Gardner
He is from Yuma, which is near the eastern border. He seems (from his website) to be very focused on rural issues. I suspect he would not be willing to drop any of his rural counties, but would be more than happy to dump parts of tilt-D Larimer county.  

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Interesting post.
I like your first three paragraphs; you essentially described the Democratic base in Colorado in a nutshell.

I also took a look at some of the county-shifts in the CO-3 area, and you're right: it is trending right. Democrats are doing better in the skiing counties, but in the two big counties you mentioned - Mesa and Pueblo - Obama's improvement ran below the rest of the state. He mostly improved in the suburbs, rather than the rural areas.

http://mypolitikal.com/

[ Parent ]
Good details.
And what I see coming out of redistricting is a strengthening of Gardner and a weakening of Tipton.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I have family in Routt County...
(Steamboat Springs), and the political climate there and in areas like Summit County (Aspen) is far closer to what I see on most of the California coast than what I've seen in the rest of the rural West (as in much of the rest of CO-03). It will be interesting to see how CO-03 gets redone in redistricting.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Nice job.
Can you also compare how Bennet did this year in comparison to Obama in 2008?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
I definitely will.
You might have to wait a while, however, to see it.

http://mypolitikal.com/
[ Parent ]
I did a post
 About a month ago on my blog that compared it a bit but not too in depth.

http://frogandturtle.blogspot....

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Looks good...
And btw, will you be doing one on Nevada soon? I looked at your Nevada baselines from April, and they correlated fairly well with the final results. One can see how Reid's GOTV operation in Clark and "Operation GOP Chaos" in Washoe really sunk Angle. Reid also overperformed the baselines in the rurals by about 7-10%, but Clark and Washoe really saved the day for us.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
I
 Planned on focusing more on redistricting in my upcoming posts but I can definitely do one on Nevada. Also, I would definitely be interested in doing a map that shows how the counties shifted from 2008 to 2010 because it appears that Reid did better in a few rural areas than Obama did, despite doing more poorly statewide. Do you know why Reid would be more popular in the rural areas despite the fact that more teabaggers live there?  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
One thing I can think of
the Elko Daily Free Press, the largest paper the rural counties, endorsed Harry Reid, out of fear that if he lost, Durbin or Schumer would become majority leader in the senate and be more inclined to push environmental or other legislation that hurt the mining industry in NE Nevada, as both Durbin and Schumer would be mostly beyond the influence of the mining industry unlike Reid. That argument, while far from a ringing endorsement of Harry Reid, could have swung significant numbers of voters in NE Nevada. There are many people who are willing to vote to protect their own interests even at the expense of hurting a candidate they are more ideologically aligned with.  

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Nice job in that.
I was pleasantly pleased to see that Bennet broke new ground where Obama hadn't (Chaffee County) despite winning by only 16,000 votes.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Bennett 2010 V Obama 2008
are like two mirror images of Blue & Red. Every single county Obama won-Bennett won.  Unless my eyes are tricking me.  Ironically one was roughly 48-47 and the other was 54-45 but every county matches up.

I don't have for this post let alone a detailed study but a quick look at the difference between 2008 & 2010 is relative turnout.  For instance in 2010 El Paso county more votes cast then Denver but in 2008 it was flipped.  In 2010 Boulder had 6K more votes cast then Douglas while in 2008 the margin was 30K.  Turnout was apparently higher in 2008 in Democratic areas.

Yet in both years the Democratic candidate won Boulder-Denver big--somewhat narrow in the three suburban counties (Jeffco- Adams Araphoe)--College town Larimer by a nose plus you throw in the hispanic rural counties--ski counties plus Pueblo.  Just mirror images.  Whether its a 9% win or 1% the exact same counties go democratic.

I suspect a narrow GOP win would only show Larimer and the three suburban counties flipping to them.  That's probably what 2000 -2004 for Bush wins looks like.  

[ Parent ]
Yeah, Bush won Larimer County.
But hasn't Fort Collins experienced Hispanic growth?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I am not sure
I don't know but that's probably a safe bet.  I would bet on the youth vote being the likely change agent for Larimer county.  
[ Parent ]
Looking ahead 20 years
It seems inevitable that Colorado's exurban sprawl will spill over from Larimer County across the Wyoming line. Cheyenne is only 45 miles from Fort Collins, it has a low cost of living, good transportation--two major interstates cross there I-80 (east-west) and I-25 (north-south), and it is a major hub for the Union Pacific Railroad--and Wyoming has no state income tax.

Maybe Wyoming will become to Colorado what New Hampshire is to Massachusetts.

[ Parent ]
I don't know.
Cheyenne is a full 100 miles away from Denver. That makes for a long commute even without traffic headaches in Greater Denver. And since real estate isn't that expensive in the Denver area, I don't see any huge incentive for someone working in Denver to move the family to Wyoming.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
I can't see someone living in Cheyenne
and working in Denver, but I could see someone living in Cheyenne and working in Fort Collins or Greeley.
[ Parent ]
I don't know if we'll see
people living in Cheyenne and commuting to Denver, but I could see someone living in Cheyenne and commuting to Fort Collins, or Fort Collins-Cheyenne.

Or families who just live along the stretch. My grandmother's sister lives in Denver, her son in Loveland, and his daughter with her husband on Francis Warren AFB near Cheyenne.

It's like my family living in New Jersey-Brooklyn-Long Island.  

[ Parent ]
Maps of Colorado Elections | 23 comments

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

Publisher: DavidNYC

Senior Editor: James L.

Senior Editor: Crisitunity

Contributing Editor: Jeffmd

Search the SSP archives:

Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

SSP Resources

Presidential Vote by CD

SSP Document Collection

Race Tracker Wiki

Dave's Redistricting App

Blogroll

Daily Kos Elections
DemConWatch
Five Thirty Eight
Governing
Hotline On Call
Political Wire
Pollster.com
Prop*50
Public Policy Polling
The Thicket
Powered by: SoapBlox