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Census Reapportionment Predictions Thread

by: DavidNYC

Tue Dec 21, 2010 at 12:24 AM EST


At 11am Eastern on Tuesday, the Census Bureau will release population data which will tell us how the House of Representatives will be reapportioned. What are your predictions for which states will gain seats - and which will lose? As a guidepost, you can check out Election Data Services' most recent projection here. Have at it!
DavidNYC :: Census Reapportionment Predictions Thread
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Census Reapportionment Predictions Thread | 223 comments
All right...
Gain:

AZ +1, CO +1, FL +2, GA +1, NV +1, TX +4, UT +1

Lose:

IL 1, IA 1, LA 1, MA 1, MI 1, MO 1, NJ 1, NY 2, OH -2

No change:

CA -0

The only difference from projections is that Colorado gains a seat. This is mostly because I was playing around with Dave's App using new census data and realized that I could easily make an 8 district map of CO using the new population estimates. I think it's been overlooked in the projections.  

'Twas the night before Reapportionment...

I really had dreams of grandeur
thinking Id write the rest.  What a long poem, I have dinner to go to in an hour and forty minutes.
[ Parent ]
Wouldn't it be sweet if
NY keeps its 28th seat, at the expense of TX, courtesy of the right wing paranoids?
"other" %s
I wonder how much people classifying themselves as "other" will go up with the movements among teabaggers to put American in the other spot. Will we get racial numbers tomorrow, or just congressional numbers?  
Just congressional numbers.
Racial stats will be out in the first few months of 2011, so I'll have to wait until around April to do a gerrymandering of California that complies with the new rules from the commission and the VRA.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
I dunno if
that will tip any scales anywhere.  Maybe a swell here and there, but only a bump.

And by definition, "American" is  a nationality, not a race.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
I missed the change in CW
that had NY losing two seats.

I think it's funny that there are already multiple people in the Commerce Department who know all of the answers.  

Here goes nothing at t-minus 10 hours.
Texas +3
Arizona +1
Florida +1
Georgia +1
Nevada +1
South Carolina +1
Utah +1
Washington +1

Illinois -1
Iowa -1
Louisiana -1
Massachusetts -1
Michigan -1
New Jersey -1
Pennsylvania -1
New York -1
Ohio -2

Sometime last year, I had a dream in which I got my hand on the reapportionment numbers and saw that Texas gained four seats, California stayed even, and Rhode Island lost one. Most of the time dreams I had of things that were actually going to happen, those dreams did not come true. Maybe that will be the case this time.

I also had a dream of the 2006 elections early that year in which I watched the governor results. I saw results of the governor races and Democrats were winning every state I saw, in ABC order from Alabama to Illinois, when I woke up after jumping up and down seeing that California went back to the blue side. Four years too soon...

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

Rhode Island can't lose a seat!
that'd be terrible. If we do lose a seat I'm going to bribe as many people as it takes until the Wyoming Rule is adopted. :P

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Eh,
if it doesn't lose a seat this round it will within the next decade or so. I think ME and RI will both be at-large states by 2030, while MA will probably be down to 7-8 seats, CT will be down to 4, and NH will be up to 3. New England is just losing too much population for the current numbers to be sustainable, and every Republican in the northeast will probably have packed into NH by then.  
[ Parent ]
Wyoming Rule. Please.
it's just too awesome being the smallest state and having more representation in congress than the largest state. Especially because that state gave the country Sarah Palin.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
mm that would not work for you

if Rhode Island get under the double of the population of Wyoming (like Montana currently).
[ Parent ]
Nah
As long as (RI's pop/2) is closer to Wyoming's pop than RI's pop, we're good. And seeing as how both of RI's congressional districts right now are only slightly less populated than Wyoming, that would save us for sure.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
You think:
Both Rhode Island and Maine will be at-large congressional districts by 2030? I'm predicting sooner, around 2020.

I just hope my home state of Vermont gets back its 2nd district, which it hasn't had since 1931-33.

[ Parent ]
The solution for RI is very simple:
start making babies. It's the most Catholic state in the country, isn't it?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
And also one of the most educated.
So they're more likely to know about contraception and less likely to have sex at a young age.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Really?
I didn't realize it was that educated. I mean, I wasn't under the impression it was Mississippi, but when I think of highly educated, I think of, say, Connecticut.

On a fairly unrelated note, my mom is from Rhode Island, and she was going to become a nun, or so she told me, but then she decided not to and went in the opposite direction and had five kids.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Well
RI is a bit above the national median when it comes to % of adults with college degrees. And we're also home to an Ivy League university and possibly the best art school in the country. And Family Guy!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
RI
would that be the Rhode Island School?  My niece finished that in four years, tho she had to spend the 4th year on scholarship in italy

Joe Cooper
[ Parent ]
of Design, yes.


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Well at least it's well into the top half at #13.
http://www.census.gov/statab/r...

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
ooo, my MN ranks nicely
Especially in comparison to urban/rural area per state and not being DC or the capital of the planet, NYC and it's orientation.
[ Parent ]
Cafeteria Catholics
I know that when I was in HS, it wasn't that hard to get free condoms. And there's a Planned Parenthood Express down the street from my house. (Yes, express.)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Immigration?
I don't mean to sound stereotypical or judgmental, but my impression is that a lot of Hispanic immigrants that happen to be Catholic don't use birth control. Just so we are clear, I am not saying anything negative, just that they tend to have kids a lot younger than people who were born here, perhaps at 24 versus 30, and this leads me to believe birth control is not a big thing in that community.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Perhaps, but
although RI has a large Hispanic population in urban areas, the vast majority of the Catholic population is still Italian/Irish/Portuguese/French Canadian, for now.

Also interestingly enough, a good number of the Hispanic kids I knew in HS weren't even Catholic. They just identified as "Christian," I think.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
I don't see that
New Hampshire, while growing faster than other parts of New England is still growing slower than the rest of the country, so it wouldn't gain a seat.  Maine is growing almost as fast as New Hampshire, so it will be a long long time before it becomes at large.

Furthermore, it's difficult to predict demographic trends that far in advance.  Personally I think growth in the South and Mountain West will be seriously slowed due to long term drought exacerbated by climate change.  People may start moving back to New England and other wet states.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
Major population shifts to Georgia and Nevada are
not sustainable, because of climate change and, because it was already unsustainable. We don't know what will happen in the next few decades, but I could see major shifts back to north.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Perhaps.
If there's a solid improvement in the economy of Midwestern states, I could easily see some decent population growth, particularly if it is the sort of economic growth that is associated with lots of jobs that immigrants can fill. I imagine the same thing is true for upstate New York.

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Nevada
Population growth in Nevada is limited by how much they can suck out of the Colorado River

Population growth in Texas is limited by how long it takes them to use up the underground water.

Of course, Texas always will have the option of building a canal to the Great Lakes, and sucking up that water.

Joe Cooper

[ Parent ]
I just can't believe people move to areas with little water.
Then they build huge golf courses in the desert! People have become accustomed to getting whatever they want when they want it. I can't wait for that to change. Maybe that will be the one good thing about climate change. Ugh.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Mass +1
Defying the odds, Massachusetts wins back its 11th district. Democrats on Beacon Hill decide to draw a swingy MA-11 centered on Worcester County. Lying about my age, I run and win, becoming the first GOP congressman elected from MA since 1994.

But seriously.....
Texas +4
Florida +2
Arizona +1
Nevada +1
South Carolina +1
Utah +1
Oregon +1
Washington +1

Ohio -2
New York -2
Massachusetts -1
Iowa -1
Louisiana -1
Michigan -1
Missouri -1
New Jersey -1
Pennsylvania-1
Minnesota -1

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

wow, I think you might have won?
your only miss was giving a Minnesota seat to Oregon.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Really? Wow!
Too bad there's no babka this time. I wonder who won the election night contest? I know I blew FL-25 and CT-Gov, so I probably did no better than middle of the pack.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
FWIW (ie, nothing)...
we both called 11 of the 12 seat changes. You listed 12 changes with MN -> OR instead of IL -> GA. I listed only 11 changes, missing the 2nd NY -> FL seat.

I haven't checked to see if sapelcovits is correct that no one else came closer.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

[ Parent ]
Here Goes:
TX 4, AZ 1, GA 1, NC 1, NV 1, SC 1, UT 1, WA 1, IA 1, IL 1, LA 1, MA 1, MI 1, MO 1, NJ 1, NY 1, PA 1, OH 2.
Hmmm. Lets try this.
TX +4
AZ +1
GA +1
NC +1
NV +1
SC +1
UT +1
WA +1
IA -1
IL -1
LA -1
MA -1
MI -1
MO -1
NJ -1
NY -1
PA -1
OH -2
[ Parent ]
I mostly agree
I'd swap the NC seat gain to a FL seat gain, though:

TX +4
AZ +1
GA +1
FL +1
NV +1
SC +1
UT +1
WA +1
IA -1
IL -1
LA -1
MA -1
MI -1
MO -1
NJ -1
NY -1
PA -1
OH -2

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

[ Parent ]
Weak Rumor
I spoke with a friend who works at Census, now she wouldn't tell me squat of course, but did remark that she'd seen the Election Data Services projections from 9/25/10 and they are "way off". I pressed and the most I got was, "populations shifts are never quite as high as outsiders predict".

So with the golden nugget of cat fud I'm going with;

+1;
AZ
FL
UT
WA
NV
NC
OR

TX +3

-1:
IL
IA
LA
MA
MI
MO
NJ
NY
OH
PA

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
Very appropriate time
for a traditional campaign song:



überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets

Wild guesses
TX +3
AZ +1
GA +1
NC +1
NV +1
SC +1
UT +1
WA +1
OR +1
FL +1
IA -1
IL -1
LA -1
MA -1
MI -1
MO -1
NJ -1
PA -1
NY -2
OH -2

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
What are the biggest bubbles to sweat from a partisan perspective?

Hehe
its my birthday and the census bureau is releasing their projections today. Perfect gift for a elections junkie.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
Happy birthday!
Isn't it like 5 AM in California?!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I guess
 I am not the biggest early bird on this site either. I usually check this at 6:15 every morning and leave comments here but apparently, other users check earlier.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Aren't you on break?
being up at this hour is unholy! :P

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I am on break
 But I am taking a class today so I have to wake up early.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
It's for the SAT


for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Good luck on that.
I took the LSAT, yet again, on December 11. Based on how I felt leaving the test, after having to pee for the first half despite having used the men's room twice before I went into the room and once before I went in the shower that morning, and after getting an awful night's sleep before, I feel as if I either did really shitty, or really, really well. It's hard to say for sure, because as I am sure you know, a lot of times you think you've nailed it, and you get a lot of questions wrong. And then when you think you've screwed it up, you've actually done okay. If there's one thing I've learned about standardized tests, it's that they can be the biggest mind fucks in the world.

Anyway, my point is, I don't envy you, but it will get better, primarily once the test is over. If you do nothing else, try to go in with an attitude like you know it, and that you don't have to get everything right to get an incredibly high score.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Surely the LSAT must be harder than the SAT.
Also, the SAT is probably less important for college admissions than the LSAT is for law school admissions, if I had to guess.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I don't
know if it's harder, but it is different, and sort of more annoying than other tests.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
From what I know of the SAT
(I did the ACT), the LSAT is more of, you get it or you don't.  You should study for both, but that process for the LSAT is learning the true meaning of words and how to use the process of elimination in a much, much grander scheme of things.  The SAT is facts, the LSAT is logic and it's application, mostly.

I had one friend who never even completed a single LSAT practice exam but she's just a smarty pants and got a 164, I believe.  Sometimes, your brain just works the way it should and you don't need to practice.

[ Parent ]
Ehh, kind of.
When I took a prep class, the guy who taught it got a 179, so he clearly knew his crap, and he told me that it's not an intelligence test but more like a skills test. He said that once you reach a score and can't get any higher, you just need to change up your routine in trying to master the material. Having studied for this test for a long, long time, there's definitely something to what he said, but there's definitely an aspect of getting it or not getting it, no matter what you do.

The biggest problem I have with the test is the five choice structure. It seems like there are always two answers that are just completely wrong or ridiculous, or maybe three if it's a very easy question. But the remaining two or three are different in such minor ways that you can understand the point of the question even if you pick an answer that isn't "the best." I get why this is, but it's still annoying, particularly in reading comprehension.

By the way, I hate people like your friend, as well as people like my friend's girlfriend, who supposedly finished the games section so quickly she had time to spare because it just came to her. Well, not really, but you know...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I'm going to start taking LSAT prep
courses next semester, any tips?

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
A few:
1. Take a prep class. A lot of people say that you can study on your own, and they are right, and you should study on your own anyway, but taking a prep class forces you to study. It also gives you access to someone that has taken the test before and has gotten a high score (more on this in a moment), who can tell you why a question is wrong or right in a way that a computer program or a review book can't. That's invaluable, or at least it was to me. They are very expensive, but they are a nice investment if they get you into a better school.

2. Take the right prep class, either PowerScore or Test Masters. (I took PowerScore.) Others, like Kaplan, aren't nearly as good, because they don't always use, or maybe never use, actual questions from the test. There's a big difference between real questions and one that someone made up to resemble real questions.

3. If you take the class, be serious about it.

4. Don't burn through the material that quickly. There's only so much that has been released over the years, and at some point, you might see questions more than once if you've seen them used as examples in the book.

5. Along the same lines, take a break, especially if you are struggling. Having a clear head is very important for this test.

6. Don't be afraid to give away questions if you need to do so. By that, I mean don't be afraid to sacrifice one passage in the reading comprehension or one of the logic games if it gives you more time for the other passages or the other games. You could end up getting more questions right that way. This is a strategy to use if you have big timing issues, so don't go to it right away, but try to be strategic about the test in any way you can. One point is no better than any other, and you need to get as many as you can, however you can.

7. Try not to fall into the trap of getting mind fucked by the answer choices. It's quite common to see B-B followed by C-A-B, followed by D-D, or something seemingly odd, when filling in answers. If half of your responses are one type of letter, something is wrong, but they have no problem creating bizarre looking patterns. One of my prep books mentioned how on one version of the exam in the early 1990s, the test had seven C answers in a row.

8. Realize that you can miss a lot of questions and still end up doing extremely well. The test for December 2009 had a -14 curve for a score of 170, so you could get a whopping 14 questions wrong and still get in the top one or two percent of all test takers. Keep working at it, change your routine if you don't end up hitting a wall, and keep trying to add just one more point.

Now that I've said this, I'm sure my score from this past December will be miserably bad, making it unlikely I never become a mayor and then governor or senator and then president. All because of one damn test! I'm being am optimist today, can't you see?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I love your optimism!
You don't need the LSAT's to become President :p I wish you luck!

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Well,
if I figure out a way to beat back the financial interests because of my background in financial law or something similar, wouldn't that be a good launching pad for the presidency? And if I don't go to law school...

Seriously now, while lots of people tell me they think I'm going to end up as a politician, I have a hard time imagining it, primarily because I don't like being the center of attention and react poorly when I am. I also say awfully nasty things when I get angry. If I ever end up in politics, I hope it's as a chief of staff or something.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Happy birthday
 

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
As An Outsider
I'm not as familiar with American census policies. So the Department of Commerce already conducted the census and has decided how many House seats each state gets already? That's awfully fast.  
They conducted the census a while ago.
Did you join after all the hubbub about census workers getting attacked by riht-wing weirdos and Michelle Bachmann's crusade to have people not fill out their entire census form and that cool map tracking census response rates by state/county/census block/molecule?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Sorry
My country was embroiled in a census controversy of its own, so I didn't really pay attention to anything related to census issues after that fiasco.
[ Parent ]
Census
The census was mainly in April.
[ Parent ]
Here goes nothing
California picks up seven seats like in the 1980's. Marin County even grows fast enough to FINALLY have its own seat in the U.S House and the State Senate. California grows faster than people believe, due to the immigrants and the fact that our climate is irresistable (although the writer of the song "It never rains in Southern California" is probably getting sued for libel right now.)

Seriously though:

Pickups
Washington +1
Nevada +1
Arizona +1
Texas +3
Georgia +1
Florida +1

Losses
Massachusetts -1
New York -1
New Jersey -1
Ohio -2
Michigan -1
Illinois -1
Missouri -1

Cali, at least you are not on the losses list.

I am not predicting big population shifts although there was growth in the first half of the decade.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

Whoops
I forgot

SC +1
LA -1

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
And
UT +1
IA -1

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Larry, Curly and Moe here!
Time to take the census!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

2nd Pool
Who will be the first to post the actual numbers?  

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
DING!
11am, where are my numbers people?


"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
Lol this is like waiting for polls to close on election night...


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Here is a link to the webcast
http://www.visualwebcaster.com...

You have to log in with your name and e-mail.

Ugh
It's not really fair to make us all wait on the actual News while The Census Bureau plays a video that amounts to a self congratulatory hand job.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
It's also on C-SPAN 3

[ Parent ]
First Shocker
Under new census rules Alaska has been denied it's at-large representative for being "lame".

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
Heh.
A new rule that drops secessionists from the counts costs Texas half its representation.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Young would be taking out Begich for sure then

[ Parent ]
watch here
Undersecretary Blank?
Real person or did they just read the federal directory showing the position as vacant?

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
It could be a real name
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B...

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
Undersecretary Rebecca Blank
Of the ESA: http://www.esa.doc.gov/

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets
[ Parent ]
Seems like they've budgeted a half hour
for useless self-congratulation.

FAIL.

The Term Circle-Jerk comes to mind
I think we all know how the Census is part of the constitution mrs. Blank. Why not cut the marketing campaign and get on to actually providing the information we have all gathered to hear.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
They never do that in these things
As anybody who has watched a draw for the Soccer World Cup will attest.
[ Parent ]
I want to go to bed already!


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Government can do stuff on time
 Good for them. Where are the numbers?  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

11:19 and not a single piece of information

Screw you, census
at this point I'm so hyper from waiting that I won't be able to get to bed anyway.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Grrrrrrr!
Even the guy who's just announcing the numbers feels the need to give us a history lesson too! WTF People

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
This is almost as bad as
LeBron James' "Decision"  

23, dude, gay, IL-13
Kind of the same thing in that
Ohio gets screwed over again.

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets
[ Parent ]
EDS was off
by about 7,000 people on it's median congressional distrcit size.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
National figures?
HUARGHBLAHAL get us to what we want! (Also, the last three digits of your national population estimate are meaningless; at least the last two are.)

Also, I love how irrelevant this is to everyone else; Wonkette didn't mention it, and it's not being mentioned on any of the big three 24/7 news networks.

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets

Texas got +4

Too bad for TXGOP
there best map maker is going to jail.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
comment of the day

[ Parent ]
No surprise there
I'm sure the GOP dominated legislature is licking their chops at the news.  

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
Grrr,
this is why party building will be so key. It wouldn't surprise me if Democrats still got walloped in this past Texas this past November, but if they had their shit together, they'd be starting from a higher base and thus wouldn't have so few seats in the state legislature right now.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
hm
bad news for NY, OR, or MN?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
TX got all 4


"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
12 seats
Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, Missouri, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania lost seats. New York lost 2, darn!

California lost nothing though.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

NY
NY Loses 2 but OH 1?  Seriously?

29/D/Male/NY-01
[ Parent ]
OH lost 2 as well
and Florida picked up 2, meaning that FL and NY have the same # of Reps and Electoral votes (even though NY has higher population).
[ Parent ]
I didn't look at the numbers
But I'm guessing NY was close to the cut line.  So in 2020 they will probably have a better chance to lose only 1 seat if current trends hold.

Silver linings aren't my specialty.

[ Parent ]
easy
the part of the state losing population is the more Republican Upstate.
[ Parent ]
So then... no surprises?
If I read that screen graphic, Minnesota holds onto everything, and no surprises from the last prediction DavidNYC posted from EDS?

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets
For those states that lost seats
which member(s) of Congress is likely on the chopping block?

I'll start with MO: I'm guessing Vicki Hartzler is gone.

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  

Russ Carnahan
GOP dominates the state leg. in Missouri & his district will have to give up most or all of St. Louis City to MO-1. Nixon might try to force Akin & Carnahan together, but I think Akin keeps enough of St. Charles county to win that fight.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
Wonder if that will spur...
A statewide run of some flavor for Rep. Carnahan, possibly for lieutenant governor.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Here is the list
Gains:
Arizona 1
Florida 2
Georgia 1
Nevada 1
South Carolina 1
Texas 4
Washington 1

Losses:
Illinois 1
Iowa 1
Louisiana 1
Massachusetts 1
Michigan 1
Missouri 1
New Jersey 1
New York 2
Ohio 2
Pennsylvania 1

Missed Utah +1

[ Parent ]
Gains , Losses. Did you miss Utah? eom

[ Parent ]
Utah +1 too, right?
yeah, so in other words no surprises. Good job EDS! and good night SSP.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Remember
For all of the negatives w/r/t reapportionment in 2012, remember the FL commission if run even close to legitimately we Dem's should gain about a half dozen seats minimum in FL, so I think in terms of the house it all washes out.

As for the electoral college, well that's another story...

Shift of 6 votes to McCain states

[ Parent ]
Yup
So we trade some northern/midwestern dems for some FL Dems and maybe the opportunity at 2 new TX Dems.  And I'd say I don't know what the NV seat will favor, but it could be swingy.

As for Utah, does the extra seat give Mattheson cover?  Do they just give him the lone Dem district and continue adding new GOP districts every 10 years?  

[ Parent ]
Is Utah really
growing that quickly?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Maybe
But I know Utah would have gotten the 436th seat in 2000, so they were very close 10 years ago. They didn't have that much further to go.
[ Parent ]
If you look at the correlation
Of high growth population and various cross-sections of Americans, I think Mormons in the West are the fastest growing non-immigrant group (or somthing like that).  The growth isn't as much migration (though there is some) but I recall it reported in the past Utah's birth rate is higher than a lot of other states.

Other people here can probably correct my errors, I haven't looked at the detailed numbers ina  while and haven't seen any of today's data yet.

[ Parent ]
I think so
I've surmised the Utah Republican Party would prefer to live with one Blue Dog Democrat than the threat of two or three. Sure, it's a very Republican state, but its most populous county is trending Democratic, they haven't been able to kill off Rep. Matheson yet, and I don't think they want to see how well a socially conservative Democrat from the desert would fare in an open-seat contest in a district including just enough of Salt Lake County to trouble Matheson.

Best to lock the Democratic-leaning (and fastest-growing) parts of Salt Lake County away in Rep. Matheson's district, preferably including enough rural areas to give any more liberal Democrat who leapfrogged him for the nomination heartburn in a general election, and add a safe new Republican seat based around the Southern Range, or wherever else growth has been fastest.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Well that's good
If it were the PA-GOP they'd probably try to work 23 GOP seats out of the Utah reapportionment LOL.
[ Parent ]
How
much is that area of the state trending Democratic? Is it enough to offset the surely overwhelming advantage that Republicans have in other areas of the state?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
No way, at least on a statewide level
But as I said, a Blue Dog Democrat with strong rural appeal could make a race out of an open-seat match (and bear in mind Rep. Chaffetz has all but declared his candidacy for Sen. Hatch's seat) in a district weighted heavily by a quarter or more of Salt Lake County's population (the idea being to crack Rep. Matheson's base). And while I'm not a Utahn, I have no expertise in Utah politics, etc., there was a significant backlash from the Utah Republican Party when Bountiful Mayor Joe Johnson endorsed Democratic candidate Sam Granato in this year's Senate race, even though the result was a forgone conclusion and mayoral endorsements usually aren't that big a deal.

Reading what tea leaves there are available, I just don't see the Utah Republican Party wanting to risk a dummymander situation in an attempt to off a political cockroach like Matheson, with no guarantee moving UT-02's PVI a few points more Republican will even do the job.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
What does the backlash
have to do with anything? Are you suggesting that the guy might become a Democrat and run?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Fast growing states
Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Idaho and Texas.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

Slowest Growing States
Michigan, Ohio, New York, Rhode Island and Louisiana.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

Damn...
No gain for Oregon, not much love for the blue states at all this round.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
Well, Nevada and Washington both Lean D.
and the other states except Utah are either swing or going to be swing around the time of the next census.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Washington isn't really "lean D"
It's a solid blue state. Nevada is probably leaning, but it's hard for me to see a conservative Republican competitive there ever again, frankly. So, those two are good. But the others kind of suck, although I maintain that the GOP in Arizona and Utah will probably opt to create a new safe district rather than try to crack the districts of Reps. Giffords or Matheson.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
In all fairness, Dino Rossi nearly won this year
and in 2004. Also, Washington has a Republican SOS and AG.

I think AZ is redistricted by commission so we're probably ok there. I wonder if the new seat has to be a Hispanic seat. I feel like one of SSP's resident Arizonans posted about this recently but I can't remember.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
Rossi lost by just under 5 points
In the end, it wasn't really all that close.
[ Parent ]
The SOS is a Linc Chaffee style RINO.
I voted for him last election, and I don't vote for many Republicans.

WA-07, 34 years old
[ Parent ]
McKenna seems like a typical generic R douchenozzle though.


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
In at least
some of these states, isn't the reason they are gaining seats the same reason they might be more likely to vote for Democrats at the national level sooner rather than later? I've seen a few people here say that Texas' growth is due mostly to Hispanics. It wouldn't surprise me to find out the same is true for Florida.

Over the long term, it's probably better for us that Texas becomes even marginally more Democratic than if Oregon or a a similar state gains a seat.

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Also urban growth

[ Parent ]
Well that's a belief
Except the problem is all the people were there already in 2010 and voted hardcore GOP in Texas.  So the supposedly Dem-favoring Hispanics didn't help that much.

What helps in TX long-term is that Hispanics could feel growing power at the polls over time.  Also, since some Hispanics are illegal, but their kids were born here and will one day be legally able to vote, the legal voting population of Hispanics grows.  But that doesn't guarantee they vote Dem though...

[ Parent ]
They do everywhere else
The likely reason the rate is lower in TX is because of lack of competitive races in the state.
[ Parent ]
Lack of competitive races at what level though
I mean every race tilted GOP.  Hispanic congressmen in heavily Hispanic areas lost to white people.  I mean the Hispanic hypothesis doesn't work in TX, never has and there's no guarantee it will.  Its a huge state but its not really trending Dem, certainly not based on any recent elections.  

And there is no guarantee that Hispanics growing up in texas will be Dems.

[ Parent ]
Statewide races
High profile. The huge numbers of unregistered and apathetic are the key. Sure, lots of them are undocumented or illegal but I don't see any good reason why TX Hispanics wouldn't lean as Democratic as anywhere else. Obama didn't contest the state in 2008 but won Latino voters 63-35 which isn't much different than the 67-31 margin nationwide. The problem is people not voting at all rather than them not voting Democratic.
[ Parent ]
Right but there's no reason to assume
That as the legal voter pool grows the Dem favorability continues.  Its just not something that can be projected.  The trend over time isn't anything that should give Dems any dsort of realistic hope.  

Texas is to Dems what NJ is to the GOP, except Dem;s best candidate can't beat Rick perry and the GOP's best candidate could beat John Corzine.

[ Parent ]
By the same token
Why should it decline? Obama won Hispanics by a greater margin in TX than he did in Colorado. The closer they get to majority status the more competitive the state will be. In theory.  
[ Parent ]
Though
Colorado whites are far less conservative than Texas whites.

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
This is true
But Hispanics were also only 13% of the CO electorate in 2008. The figure in TX was 20 percent.
[ Parent ]
There's usually one
big thing missing in the claims that demographic changes will help the Democrats (not from you, but from others): the idea that you need to compete for them and/or mobilize them. Perhaps the fundamentals will be so strong that the Democrats won't do much of anything and still one during one election, but I wouldn't count on that.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Actually, there is
reason to think it makes the Democrats more competitive: because it does. This isn't the same thing as saying that Texas automatically becomes a blue state, of course, just that it gives the Democrats a much more legitimate shot at winning. And it does. Nobody really disputes that. They just argue about when it might happen.

For argument's sake, let's play with the numbers. A total of 4,972,895 votes were cast. According to the CNN exit polls, Perry received 69 percent of the white vote, 11 percent of the black vote, and 38 percent of the Hispanic vote.  White received 29 percent of the white vote, 88 percent of the black vote, and 61 percent of the Hispanic vote. I'll assume Perry received 40 percent of the Asian/Other vote to White's 60 percent.

Whites made up 67 percent of the electorate; blacks 13 percent; Hispanics 17 percent, and Asian/Other three percent.

But let's change that composition to 60 percent white, 14 percent black, 23 percent Hispanic, and three percent Asian/Other, even as we keep the percentages each candidate won the same. We get White receiving 865,284 white votes, 612,661 black votes, 697,697 Hispanic votes, and 89,512 Asian/Other votes. That is 2,265,154 votes total, or 45.55 percent.

No, that isn't enough to get him to victory. He still needs more votes.

Now let's change the percent of the Hispanic vote percentage that White received from 61 percent to 66 percent. That brings him up to 754,885 Hispanic votes, for a total of 2,322,342 votes, or 46.7 percent.

Again, that's still not enough. But you can see how slight changes in the demographics and results can help the Democrats quite a bit. I don't think I've proposed anything unrealistic, either, like the Democratic candidate getting 48 percent of the white vote.



"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
That's a lot of hypotheticals to get to an 6-8 point loss
Against a none-too-popular governor.

Yes if you makes whites lower % of voter population, blacks and Hispanics a higher %, and increase Dem voter % with blacks and Hispanics, you get closer, I just don't see how that works otu long term.

And maybe I'm clueless, but both the Hispanic and Black populations are growing faster than the white and Asian/Other populations.  I'm not sure this is something that plays out in perpetuity either, certainly not at the rates you hypothesize.

[ Parent ]
Well, yeah
Hispanics and AA population is growing faster which is even more reason to suggest a more competitive state at some point. But it won't happen automatically. Democrats have to put plenty work into registration for a start.
[ Parent ]
The thing is,
it's not that the population needs to grow more to reach a point where minorities can make the difference. It's in fact already there, but such voters aren't always showing up. Non-Hispanic Whites are already less than half of the population, but they make up about two-thirds of voters. Blacks seem to represent a portion of the electorate that is higher than their percentage of the population, but Hispanics make up about 35 or 36 percent of the overall population while only 20 percent, if that, of the voter pool.

As far as population growth is concerned, as I said, non-Hispanic whites make up about 48 percent of the population. If the rate of growth for them continues to be eclipsed by that of Hispanics, is it really out of the question for whites to be close to 40 percent of the population in a decade?

Anyway, Democrats might indeed have to experience some more success with whites in the state to be truly competitive, but I don't think they'd have to do that much better. They wouldn't need to win 40 percent of whites in the state, for instance, but could probably win with 30 or 35 percent. You could argue that such a figure is absolutely unreasonable, and maybe you'd be right, but the state has a lot of people that aren't registered and even more that are registered but don't show up--and it's not getting any smaller. Maybe it would take a few cycles to find a certain number of white votes if they aren't already there.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
The thing is,
it's not that the population needs to grow more to reach a point where minorities can make the difference. It's in fact already there, but such voters aren't always showing up. Non-Hispanic Whites are already less than half of the population, but they make up about two-thirds of voters. Blacks seem to represent a portion of the electorate that is higher than their percentage of the population, but Hispanics make up about 35 or 36 percent of the overall population while only 20 percent, if that, of the voter pool.

As far as population growth is concerned, as I said, non-Hispanic whites make up about 48 percent of the population. If the rate of growth for them continues to be eclipsed by that of Hispanics, is it really out of the question for whites to be close to 40 percent of the population in a decade?

Anyway, Democrats might indeed have to experience some more success with whites in the state to be truly competitive, but I don't think they'd have to do that much better. They wouldn't need to win 40 percent of whites in the state, for instance, but could probably win with 30 or 35 percent. You could argue that such a figure is absolutely unreasonable, and maybe you'd be right, but the state has a lot of people that aren't registered and even more that are registered but don't show up--and it's not getting any smaller. Maybe it would take a few cycles to find a certain number of white votes if they aren't already there.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Perry won only 55-42
If that's a legit 2010 baseline for a strong R year (big unknown) -- especially when compared to Bush's '98 performance (68-31)

that suggests considerable improvement. (Sure, it's a small sample size, and Munro was I suspect a "some dude", nevertheless...)

[ Parent ]
Actually it was 57-40. (gaaarrrggghhhee!)


My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Oh oops. Just saw the updated numbers.


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
They might
be there, but did they show up?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
California vs Texas
One of the more interesting things to me when trying to project demographics outward is California vs. Texas. In both states, Hispanics make up about the same percentage of the population, but they make such a much bigger difference in California than Texas. For whatever reason, they just don't vote in the same numbers in Texas. I think they are as equally Democratic, in terms of how they vote.

I'd be curious if anyone has an explanation for this.  

[ Parent ]
Lack of competitive statewide races perhaps
And the fact many are in the country illegally.
[ Parent ]
That is a self-fulfilling prophecy then
The races are getting worse on a net vote count basis, especially at the house level.  So isn't there an argument that the trend will continue to get worse?

When perry won the 4 way Guv race back in the day, was Hispanic voting % of total different from 2010?  That was a very close election for TX.

[ Parent ]
I suppose, although...
are California races any more competitive? I don't know - count me along with rdw among the skeptics to the Texas is turning blue meme. Something seems very different about Texas compared to California.  
[ Parent ]
In Texas...
Caucasians vote more Republican than Latinos vote Democratic.  That's the problem.  In CA, only a plurality of Caucasians vote Republican.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Another problem in Texas
Is voter registration.  The TX GOP has gone off the deep end recently and the State Democratic Party is doing no large concerted effort to register as many eligible voters as they can in response.  Similar thing in AZ.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I also wonder
Do people emigrating (immigrating???) froma nother country to America by and large see such an improvement to quality of life that they don't necessarily have to go the way of prevailing thought.  Is it possible immigrants to California love CA's policies because they like America and that immigrants to Texas like TX's policies because they like America.

That's my main cause for concern.  Lot's of people back east hate the states they're from for whatever reason.  I've enevr met a Texan of either party who wasn't proud of their state.

I think we could see far more GOP Hispanic Texans and that's why I just don't think assuming a consistent increase in voting % goes up.  Though I do believe as second egnerations come along they at least increase their overall turnout, even if their 65/35 Dem/GOP split doesn't budge.

Sadly, when you're losing elections routinely by 500K votes statewide, it makes for a VERY long process and one that I don't think is realistic in my relative lifetime (and I'm 33).

[ Parent ]
I don't think policies matter much.
They go where family is or where is most convenient.

And TX can go purple within a decade, but only if the TX Democratic party gets its shit together and gets the resources they need.

CA used to be GOP-dominated...now it's completely reversed.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
But
It isn't like Hispanic Texans don't vote Democratic at the same rates as other states. Or am I missing something in believing it more than likely that the more the population of the state because Hispanic and AA at the expense of Whites and that if the 60-40 vote share remains the same then Republicans will have a harder time no matter how big they win Whites?
[ Parent ]
Becomes Hispanic and AA

[ Parent ]
For now
TX is just out of reach.  The TX Dem party will have to work hard and have the patience and diligence of Job over this decade in order to win it back.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
But CA is only a relatively new Democratic state
It may take 20 years for Texas to follow but with hard work it will happen.
[ Parent ]
The Problem with "Hispanics"
Is that they are not a race. If you look at the census data this becomes rapidly apparent. Something like 37% of Texans are of Hispanic descent, but 81% reported "White" as their race.

Why is this important? Because Hispanics who identify as white are vastly more likely to vote Republican.

In Texas, the Hispanic percentage of the electorate and the Democratic edge among hispanic voters has been more or less stagnant since 1994 despite predictions of massive gains, and there is a simple reason for this. Texans of Hispanic dissent have been moving to the GOP at an almost exactly proportional rate as their increase in the population, but generally that movement comes with an identification as "white" on exit polling data which explains the consistent 17% or so figure that has not budged in two decades.

The downturn if anything is going to accelerate this. The demographics within the Hispanic community it has hit hardest(children of illegal immigrants, low-income and migrant workers) are exactly those most likely to vote democratic, while among Upper Middle Class Hispanics, there is no substantial difference in voting behavior with white voters.

I think Rep Pena is an ass, esp. after his party switch, but his article a few weeks back calling all those predicting a Democratic wave in Texas in the next decade or two based on demographics delusional is right on the money. If anything things are moving in the opposite direction, with the Republicans approaching a 45-55 split among those of 'Hispanic" dissent, which is more than enough to have them continue winning every statewide office for the next decade. Remember, the highest percentage won statewide by any Democrat has been falling consistently since 1994.

1994 61%
1998 49%
2000 46%
2002 46%
2004 44%
2006 43%
2008 43%
2010 40%

That is not a sign of changing demographics. This is not to say that change won't come, but mathematically the GOP is in a much stronger position now than they were in 2002 in Texas.  

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

[ Parent ]
Didn't Bill White get 42?


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
along with 62% of Hispanics, n/t

[ Parent ]
It is because
Caucasians have been turning hard against Democrats in Texas for a decade and are off-setting Hispanic support of Democrats.  This year, 65% of Hispanics (as a whole) voted for Bill White.

The problem that you identify is that TX Hispanics aren't voting Democratic enough to offset Caucasians voting Republican, and I agree.  Also, the Bush family has a long legacy of courting Hispanic voters, so that is probably why they vote Republican somewhat more in TX than in CA.  

Also, another issue is voter engagement.  A lot of Texans who are Hispanic who voted this year are of the older generations who are somewhat right-of-center.  None of the younger generations got as involved and they are lopsided in support of Democrats.

Besides, the TX GOP is screwing up their relationship already.  Their Board of Education cut out Hispanic historical heroes and the state GOP Committee voted in support of laws like AZ's SB1070 (which Perry is against).  Also, the massive cuts the State Legislature will have to do to offset their massive $25 billion shortfall will hit a lot of people statewide and the onus will be on the Republicans, who control it.

Also, another problem is that State Legislature seats are heavily gerrymandered to make as many GOP seats as possible.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
That seems to go
against a lot of what I've read.

Generally speaking, it sounds like what you are saying is that Hispanics (and yes, I realize it's not a race by itself) that are the most likely to vote Democratic are not showing up and might not continue to show up for a few reasons. That makes sense, but I wouldn't assume it's not likely to change.

There's also the fact that the Republicans can read these numbers as well and aren't going to doom themselves to losing every election by turning away the Hispanic vote. They will try to get it, even if they fail. So far, they've had some success, but I don't see how you can say they are in a stronger position than they were in 2002. If there's an advantage at all, it's superficial, and there's no indication it will be long lasting.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Its more that
Hispanics have far more in common with past immigrant groups like the Irish or Asians in that they can "pass" especially at the higher income levels. What this tends to mean is that while "Hispanic" issues are very important for generations one and two, by generation three you see a split between the aspirationalists who want to assimilate to the majority culture, and those who still cling to ancestry.

The point I was making in regards to Texas is not that a rising self-identified hispanic portion of the vote is not a good thing for democrats, but that the White percentage of the electorate has shifted barely a point since 1994 in exit polls, because high-income third generation hispanics, especially those who are evangelical Protestants tell exit pollsters they are white. So while the Hispanic portion of the electorate grows by births and immigration, the white portion grows by converting Hispanics into "Anglos". And the type of individual of Hispanic descent who is likely to tell an exit pollster they are "white" is far more likely to vote altogether since they tend to be higher-income, fluent in English and possibly intermarried.

Basically the point I am making here is that an examination of exit poll results from 1994-2010 indicates that the self-identified "Hispanic" vote in Texas is not actually growing at all, and therefore predictions that it will deliver the state are quite premature.

This by the way is not something that is happening in California, or Colorado, where few Hispanics identify as white. It is however quite common in Arizona, which is why the GOP went with their immigration law. It appeals and serves to split aspirational hispanics from the rest of the community.  

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

[ Parent ]
Asians aren't a "past" immigrant group
there are still lots of immigrants from China, the Philippines, etc. who are relatively recent arrivals.

also, are these Hispanics who supposedly identify as white exclusively white Hispanics? or do they include mixed-race people who somehow identify as white anyway? Somehow it seems weird to envision someone with fairly dark skin telling an exit pollster that they are white.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
What you say doesn't
sound ridiculous, but it does sound like the sort of thing that would need to be verified before I believe it. Do you have any academic proof or anything like that? Can you put some numbers behind your claims?

Now, like I said, what you described doesn't sound absurd, but virtually everything I've read about this makes it out to be an issue of Democrats not taking advantage of what strength is already there because Hispanics aren't registered or aren't showing up if they are registered and/or the demography of the state still changing but not quickly enough--and not what you say.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Population of the U.S
308,745,538 people.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

Hard to believe that NY lost two but MI only one

I agree
It will be insteresting to see where exactly this is from.  I know everyone will say upstate I'm just wondering where.  I'm also of the belief downstate probably didn't do as well as predicted either.

I'd thinkt eh Albany area had to to do better than some other parts of upstate simply because the state govt is there.  I'm wondering if the bad places were Buffalo, Rochester, Binghamton, Syracuse, etc.

[ Parent ]
Now that the legislature is split again
I'd imagine the State Senate will demand that a downstate seat be eliminted as well.
[ Parent ]
Can't wait to see the numebrs
I can't imagine how to eliminate a downstate seat without moving a lot of people in a lot of different directions.
[ Parent ]
Oh, oh, I've got one!
NY-03. Come on, you know it's a good idea!

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
What a surprise lol
But don't you think the upstate seat will be GOP and the downstate Dem?
[ Parent ]
NY must have been very close to only losing 1
The population of New York is: 19,378,102, while the population of Florida is 18,801,310 (a difference of 576,792). Yet both states will have 27 representatives.
[ Parent ]
Upstate New York is in serious decline
Also, Michigan can only go so far down. Detroit's suburbs are actually doing fairly well, places like Oakland County also probably the Ann Arbor area are gaining population.

WA-07, 34 years old
[ Parent ]
Yeah but where upstate
Certain areas are more prone to decline than others (i.e. Utica vs. Albany).  But some of the areas have growing school populations and such to offset dismal economies.  Nothing as big as Ann Arbor to Michigan but still a lot of colleges in NY that support little economic boom-areas in weird places.

[ Parent ]
Using 2008 election results
its a +5 EV gain for McCain: (360-O and 178-M).

Assuming those base lines for 2012, the GOP needs 92 EVs to flip. On the one hand, that seems like a tall order compared to Gore and Kerry who needed less than 20 for the same goal; but, in reality, the GOP only needs to flip back FL, IN, NC, OH, VA and CO and find 3 more EVs from NV, NH or NM to win at exactly 270.

The Dems could go on offense in MT, either of the Dakotas, AZ and maybe MO, but all those are very tough.

As such, the real tippoing point states (in my view) are really CO and NV.

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  

91 EVs . . .
if you assume that the GOP retains control over the House -- or more accurately if the GOP retains a majority in at least 26 House delegations.  
[ Parent ]
6
Arizona 1
Florida 2
Georgia 1
Nevada 1
South Carolina 1
Texas 4
Washington 1
Utah 1

Obama 4 (FL +2, NV +1, WA +1)
McCain 8 (TX +4, AZ +1, GA +1, SC +1, UT +1)

Illinois 1
Iowa 1
Louisiana 1
Massachusetts 1
Michigan 1
Missouri 1
New Jersey 1
New York 2
Ohio 2
Pennsylvania 1

Obama 10 (NY 2, OH 2, PA 1, NJ 1, MI 1, MA 1, IA 1, IL 1)
McCain 2 (MO 1, LA 1)

Agree, on tipping point states.

[ Parent ]
Assuming they aren't trying to keep their
heads above water, the Democrats would be damn fools not to invest in Arizona, at minimum, at least initially. I'd probably put Georgia, South Carolina, and Montana in that column, too, and probably the Dakotas if Thune isn't the nominee. If they are really feeling it, they should try for Texas as well, if only to give John Sharp some help and whichever Republican he runs against a boost. I assume they will compete in Missouri, because they usually do and because McCaskill will want the help.

The one thing going for the Democrats, I think, is that a lot of the states that are at the margins for them are probably very cheap to compete in=--not Texas or Georgia, or maybe Arizona, but Montana, South Carolina, and the Dakotas. Maybe it's more expensive than I think, but I'd imagine they could probably fund comprehensive operations in all of South Carolina, both Dakotas, and Montana for what the Republicans would spend in Colorado or Virginia. Plus, while it's not entirely clear how much was spent in some of these states, it is clear something was spent. More will need to be spent, but unless a lot of the work building up a campaign structure is already done because of previous races, the Republicans might need to essentially start from scratch in some of these states. It's probably less of a factor in Montana, where things are cheap anyway, but if they need to throw down money to build a basically new organization for president in Georgia, while the Democrats don't because of what Obama did last time, that probably helps more than people are acknowledging.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
You know I agree
Particularly on SC. The buzz will be red states gaining at the expense of blue states. The problem with that is that states tend to become more Democratic the more they grow. Look at the reapportionment from 2000 when California, Arizona, Nevada, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina and Florida all gained seats. Those are arguably all more fertile territory for Democrats, particularly CA, NC and NV. And Obama may well have won AZ in 2008 without McCain's favorite son appeal.
[ Parent ]
And going back further
Since say 1980, the list of other states that gained seats reads mostly like a list of places where, in general, Republican performance has declined - Oregon, Washington, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia.  
[ Parent ]
It won't
matter if he gives a State of the Union speech in a few weeks that calls for significant cuts in Social Security benefits. I'm about as big a defender of his as you will find, even if I have some sharp disagreements with him, but if that were to happen, I'm not sure what I'd do. I might give to a primary challenger or else I might just not vote for president at all. Whatever the case, I can't imagine supporting him after that. And what would I do with with my time if I didn't focus on 2012?

No joke, I was in such a shitty mood yesterday after I read Kuttner's article. I'm trying to believe it was a test balloon or something, because he can't be that dumb to think it'd work with the base. It'd be way over the line.

But anyway, assuming he's in a position to be on the offense, because the economy is in a stronger position and/or his base hasn't deserted him, he absolutely should absolutely look at expanding the map. If it looks like Minnesota and Michigan are in the bag, why not try to make a play for South Carolina or Georgia? What a legacy it would be to leave those types of states far more open to voting for Democrats than they would otherwise be.

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Kuttner
That whole article read like an ad hominem attack on the president rather than a serious piece of journalism. Proof will be in the pudding as ever.
[ Parent ]
Kuttner?
Isn't Kuttner Kal Penn's character from House?

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
No idea
I was talking about Robert Kuttner, purity troll.
[ Parent ]
I hope so.
I might have said this to you already, but in case I didn't, I didn't realize there was a distinction between what Simpson and Bowles themselves proposed and what the deficit commission as a whole proposed. The latter recommended raising the cap on taxable income for Social Security, whereas the former supposedly wanted deep cuts in the program. I could possibly get behind a plan that married minor benefit cuts (think someone getting $490 a month instead of $500, for instance) and small tax increases if it put the program on a sounder footing, if such a move is going to help him. There will need to be some changes made at some point, after all. But drastic cuts? No, no, no. Social Security isn't the problem going forward. Health care is the problem. For Obama to give in on a core Democratic principle like that would be stupid and unforgivable for any number of reasons. I couldn't support him if he did that, which sucks, because I want to support him.

I hope that Kuttner is wrong and that something different about Social Security, if anything at all, will be expressed in the State of the Union speech. I have to think he is wrong, because there's got to be at least one person in the White House who realizes how suicidal this would be. But now, I am of the same mindset as Brad DeLong: why can't the damn speech be about jobs and economy?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Curious Conspiracy
Why do you think that South Carolina is ripe for flipping? It wasn't that close in 2008, and demographic trends don't neccesarily seem to be on Dems side as much as in other states.  
[ Parent ]
My Guess: even without an Obama presence
It was 54-45 in '08. It certainly would have been closer had Obama campaigned there. When combined with demographic changes, would that start to give SC a purplish tinge?
[ Parent ]
My Guess: even without an Obama presence
It was 54-45 in '08. It certainly would have been closer had Obama campaigned there. When combined with demographic changes, would that start to give SC a purplish tinge?
[ Parent ]
I just had a feeling before November
And was encouraged by the fact Obama's job approval rating is surprisingly high as per the exit poll. Now I don't expect him to win it but I think it is worth trying considering he didn't contest it last time and still got within single digits without the uptick in AA turnout seen elsewhere, 25% as compared to 30% in 2004 as per the exit polls.  
[ Parent ]
MN got 435/NC was 436...
by 15700 people.
I expect lawsuits
But I am glad that Minnesota has all 8 of its seats still.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
MN just made the cut
NC just a failed to gain.
I was going to ask abotu NC
I wonder if the banking stuff hit at just the wrong time.  to be that close it probably didn't help.

Sadly, after looking at both NC and MN, I doubt it mattered which state got the seat, both have their process controlled by the GOP so Dem's were ina  lose lose.  

I'm sure the MN-GOP will try something funky though.

[ Parent ]
A decade later . . .
North Carolina gets to feel what it is like to be on the other end of the stick.  And the State of Utah is smiling.  
[ Parent ]
Haha and DC still suffers
Wasn't Utah the state getting the extra seat if DC got a voting seat?
[ Parent ]
The table is finally out
here. It's pretty clear that the House is too small. Some of this disparities are just grossly unfair.  
Yes.
Just a quick look, NV has an average of just over 600,000 while Delaware (I know, single rep small state), is over 900,000!  That's a huge difference.
[ Parent ]
Rehberg
First Rep. to (basically) Represent 1,000,000 people?
[ Parent ]
I think...
Joe Heck (NV-3) already has that distinction, unofficially...
[ Parent ]
I think the most stark difference
is between RI and MT.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Yup.
20k fewer people in RI and 20k more in MT would have flipped it.
[ Parent ]
Yes
I was just scanning it the first time, but now that I have had time to see the numbers, the RI/MT difference is crazy.
[ Parent ]
Looking to 2020
Rhode Island is in serious danger of losing its second seat.

23, dude, gay, IL-13
[ Parent ]
100% going to lose it.
I don't see how there's any way, unless Gold is discovered in West Warwick, that RI isn't At Large in 2020.
[ Parent ]
Bah.
I guess at least we'll most likely have the distinction of most populous congressional seat...

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Not even that
Looks like Montana will be bigger,a nd unless they get a second seat they would be largest at-large.
[ Parent ]
Unless Montana
Doesn't get a second seat.

Treads 10 years out are very hard to predict.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Er
Trend.

/fail

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Wow I didn;'t realize RI
was so close to losing a seat.  And soon Montana will gain a 2nd seat.  I guess east-coast bias for me, I didn't think Montana and RI were that close in population.
[ Parent ]
Wyoming Rule
..makes it 544 members this time around. It would actually have been a slight decrease from 2000 if it had been in place.

32, M, MI-6, Iconoclastic Leftist
[ Parent ]
Pennsylvania held up ok
Being bordered heavily by Ohio (-2) and NY (-2), PA only lost 1.  It, along with NY, are the 2 states I'm most interested in seeing the population shifts in.
NJ and MA
Are the ones I want to see.  The growth in NJ is at the Shore, Republican areas.  I don't see how they come up with 4 districts for Urban NENJ anymore (Rothman/Pascrell/Payne/Sires).
[ Parent ]
I'm curiosu to see NJ
solely for the reason of how the counties bordering Philly are doing.  Philly proper is projected to decline somewhat but mainly just losing people to the burbs.  I'm curious to see if the change in the areas in NJ just across the bridge from Philly.
[ Parent ]
And Michigan
I'm very curious to see if the population loss is people leaving Detroit for other states or other parts of the state (and if then suburb, exurb or rural population is what is leaving).

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
Michigan
Michigan has had a pretty ridiculously large and sustained out-migration, which was usually offset a bit by immigration and the birthrate.  The already bad one-state recession, as we've called it, killed those last two sustainers of growth.  

Michigan actually had gained population from 2000 to 2005, but you add a national recession onto a state recession and it's really quite amazing that Michigan only lost 0.6% of its population.  When you take into account we've lost something like 800,000 jobs, and replaced very few of those, it's really nothing short of a miracle.  There has been for some time a perception that people were fleeing Michigan and no one was replacing them, and while it's technically true, as one can see, if even much of them aren't, many of them are.

The 2000's resemble pretty closely the 1980's here in Michigan in that we had stagnant growth during that decade, too.  We gained a statistically insignificant 0.4% in the 80's, and lost 0.6% in the 00's, which if you ask me is just outside the margin of statistical insignificance.

[ Parent ]
Illinois
I'd like to see where the shifts are coming from. I'd assume South Side Chicago and the South Suburbs, but West and Southwest Suburbs have grown pretty rapidly, along with the Loop and North Side in the city. I'm assuming some pretty stagnant if not downright losses coming downstate.

23, dude, gay, IL-13
[ Parent ]
Census Reapportionment Predictions Thread | 223 comments

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