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California: 53-0 with 59% Obama or more

by: abgin

Sun Dec 19, 2010 at 11:57 AM EST

Well, here is my bid for find the limits of a Gerrymander redistricting of California. Really a lot of work for balance all the map. Only for read and paint all these precincts it is a lot of work, I can imagine the work of include all the the data and do these maps. And the work for update the maps after the census.

Like you will see in the forms of the districts, many of them with a lot of corners I force the big majority of the districts until the extreme, and other what seems better are too following the same extreme rules.

My goal doing this map is not do a nice map with nice districts, my goal here is find the limits respecting the rules for redistricting in the best way what I can do. I wish the people know and see the limits for have a good idea about the maps what we will see for California.

California has now 20 R+ districts and 19 republican incumbents. Here they are a lot of room for improve the numbers of the democratic delegation. I know not if the new commission will do something possitive for the democratic side.

All the new districts in this bid are over 59% Obama (at least D+6). I think they are enough hard for the republicans, few can survive, the map keep not their current basis.

In California is not a condition to live inside the district, but I try give to every democratic incumbent his district. For the incumbents what lives in small towns and cities I try to keep all inside his new district, and for the people what lives in the biggest cities I try to keep his home or his office inside every district. I hope do it enough well.

South California is a little less democratic than North California, but still I'm able for keep this D+6+ level for all the south. For North California I can up to 60% Obama as minimum despite to be a little more difficult find the geographic ways.

You can see the color and the data of every district in the image. The counter of the population leaves a remaining population what I see not where are, and the map have some little areas what get not colored. Nothing important for this way of use the application.

abgin :: California: 53-0 with 59% Obama or more

MINORITIES
HISPANIC
Hispanic majority (>50% hispanic)
Old map: 10 districts
My map: 10 districts
Hispanic-White (minority-majority district with Hispanic as first group and White as second)
Old map: 2 districts
My map: 7 districts
Hispanic-Black (minority-majority with Hispanic as first group and black as second)
Old map: 3 districts
My map: 1 district (the other 2 will be White-Black)
Hispanic-Asian (minority-majority with Hispanic as fist group and asian as second)
Old map: -
My map: 1 district

ASIAN
Asian-Hispanic (minority-majority with Asian as fist group and Hispanic as second)
Old map: -
My map: 1 district
White-Asian (minority-majority district with White as first group and Asian as second)
Old map: 4 districts
My map: 3 districts
Hispanic-Asian (minority-majority with hispanic as first group and asian as second)
Old map: -
My map: 1 district

BLACK
White-Black (minority-majority district with White as first group and Black as second)
Old map: 1 district
My map: 3 districts
Hispanic-Black (minority-majority with hispanic as first group and black as second)
Old map: 3 districts
My map: 1 district

As resume my map gives:
- 6 White majority districts
- 1 White-Asian minority-majority
+2 White-Black minority-majority
+5 Hispano-White minority-majority
- 2 Hispano-Black minority-majority
+1 Hispano-Asian minority-majority
+1 Asian-Hispano minority-majority
In this work the most difficult is to keep the level for the asian minority in North California and for the Black minority in South California. New hispanic districts appear without effort despite this map use not the data of the 2010 census.
I would need to see if the new census data make not possible the White-Black districts. If it is not possible, the map would change a little but the limit would be the same. If you take the right way more or less hispanic population in every district affect not to the limits.

MAPS

All the state

North California

South California

CA-01
Incumbent: M Thompson (D)
White majority district.

CA-02
Incumbent: -
White majority district.

CA-03
Incumbent: -
White majority district.

CA-04
Incumbent: -
White majority district.

CA-05
Incumbent: D Matsui (D)
White-Hispanic minority-majority district.

CA-06
Incumbent: L Woolsey (D) vs W Herger (R)
White majority district.
Not the best moment for her retirement since the point of this map.

CA-07
Incumbent: G Miller (D) vs D Lungren (R)
White majority district.

CA-08
Incumbent: N Pelosi (D)
White-Asian minority-majority district.
The safest district. Not casual.

CA-09
Incumbent: B Lee (D)
White-Black minority-majority district.

CA-10
Incumbent: J Garamendi (D) vs T McClintock (R)
White majority district.

CA-11
Incumbent: J McNerney (D)
White majority district.

CA-12
Incumbent: J Speier (D)
White-Asian minority-majority district.

CA-13
Incumbent: P Stark (D)
White-Hispanic minority-majority district.

CA-14
Incumbent: A Eshoo (D)
White majority district.

CA-15
Incumbent: M Honda (D)
Hispanic-Asian minority-majority district.

CA-16
Incumbent: Z Lofgren (D) vs D Nunes (R)
Hispanic-White minority-majority district.

CA-17
Incumbent: S Farr (D) vs E Gallegly (R)
White majority district.

CA-18
Incumbent: D Cardoza (D) vs J Denham (R)
White-Hispanic minority-majority district.

CA-19
Incumbent: -
White majority district.

CA-20
Incumbent: J Costa (D)
Hispanic majority district.

CA-21
Incumbent: -
White-Hispanic minority-majority district.

CA-22
Incumbent: -
White-Asian minority-majority district.

CA-23
Incumbent: L Capps (D)
White majority district.

CA-24
Incumbent: -
White majority district.

CA-25
Incumbent: H McKeon (R)
White majority district.

CA-26
Incumbent: D Dreier (R)
White majority district.

CA-27
Incumbent: B Sherman (D) vs K McCarthy (R)
Hispanic-White minority-majority district.

CA-28
Incumbent: H Berman (D)
Hispanic-White minority-majority district.

CA-29
Incumbent: A Schiff (D)
White majority district.

CA-30
Incumbent: H Waxman (D)
Hispanic-White minority-majority district.

CA-31
Incumbent: X Becerra (D) vs K Calvert (R)
Hispanic majority district.

CA-32
Incumbent: J Chu (D) vs G Miller (R)
Asian-Hispanic minority-majority district.

CA-33
Incumbent: K Bass (D) vs J Campbell (R)
White-Black minority-majority district.

CA-34
Incumbent: L Roybal-Allard (D)
Hispanic majority district.

CA-35
Incumbent: M Waters (D)
Hispanic-Black minority-majority district.

CA-36
Incumbent: J Harman (D)
White-Hispanic minority-majority district.

CA-37
Incumbent: L Richardson (D)
White-Black minority-majority district.

CA-38
Incumbent: G Napolitano (D) vs E Royce (R)
Hispanic majority district.

CA-39
Incumbent: Linda Sanchez (D)
Hispanic majority district.

CA-40
Incumbent: M Bono Mack (R)
Hispanic majority district.

CA-41
Incumbent: -
White-Hispanic minority-majority district.

CA-42
Incumbent: -
Hispanic-White minority-majority district.

CA-43
Incumbent: J Baca (D) vs J Lewis (R)
Hispanic-White minority-majority district.

CA-44
Incumbent: -
Hispanic majority district.

CA-45
Incumbent: -
Hispanic majority district.

CA-46
Incumbent: -
White-Hispanic minority-majority district.

CA-47
Incumbent: Loretta Sanchez (D)
Hispanic majority district.

CA-48
Incumbent: D Rohrabacher (R) vs B Bilbray (R)
White majority district.

CA-49
Incumbent: D Issa (R)
White-Hispanic minority-majority district.

CA-50
Incumbent: -
Hispanic majority district.

CA-51
Incumbent: R Filner (D)
Hispanic-White minority-majority district.

CA-52
Incumbent: - (likely D Hunter (R))
White majority district.

CA-53
Incumbent: S Davis (D) vs D Hunter (R)
White majority district.

Just the remaining votes what leaves the counter and some need in the area of north San Diego county make I need to leave the CD-33, CD-35 and CD-37 with higher deviation than the other districts. Still is inside the limit what gives the law if I'm not wrong, and cause of this I make not more corrections. I would need to move a decent number of districts for down the deviation, but I would not have major trouble cause of this.

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California: 53-0 with 59% Obama or more | 18 comments

Thanks for posting this map

its amazing and a true example of what amazing technology is out there.

Let me piggy back on an earlier post this week on voter turnout in CA. The details showed 37% population for hispanics for only 18% actual voters. That's why 54% district are fairly pointless for VRA purposes for hispanics. In fact there are 60% districts in CA that have never elected hispanics.

I know results are not guaranteed under VRA but as the Texas case showed early last decade if you are drawing a seat for hispanics under VRA 65% needs to be the goal.

I know this map was not meant to be a prediction or a projection but rather an exercise. CA will be an absolute wild card for 2012 with its new non-partisan directed redistricting plan. I frankly am clueless as to what the result under this new plan.

One assumes there will fewer bizarre districts and less county lines being crossed. Will there be more majority/minority seats or more?

The 2002 plan in CA was an incumbent protection plan that shafted the hispanic community. Hispanic voters in the bay area-San Diego are plus Central Valley were divided up and split to protect democratic incumbents.

Not sure what will happen in 2012.

by: rdelbov @ Sun Dec 19, 2010 at 17:36:08 PM UTC

by: you @ soon

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Like you I'm not sure about the result of the redistricting with the new commission

Surely we are losing the chance of do a good redistricting since the democratic point.

The hispanic population of California goes so well with the average of the state. We have a lot more rural hispanic population than in states like New York or Illinois, and cause of this the group is not as blue in the overall leaning. While, the white population of California is bluer than in other states. That help a lot for balance the districts.

by: abgin @ Sun Dec 19, 2010 at 18:18:47 PM UTC

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by: you @ soon

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Wow

I had no idea this was remotely possible, with as stupid of a map as there is now. If this was the current map, the GOP would have a 11 vote majority in the House, not a 49 vote one. (Assuming we would have 19 more seats, as all Dems besides Costa won easily in districts like these.

by: ID Panhandle Dem @ Sun Dec 19, 2010 at 18:19:05 PM UTC

by: you @ soon

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I think the people can assume

I think the people can assume we are conceding 19 house seats in California to the republicans if the next redistricting do nothing for improve this.

You make the balance for the incumbents. We can make the balance for the seats rating too.

Now they are:

194 D+ seats
9 EVEN seats
232 R+ seats

That mean the republicans take advantage previously from the redistricting of other states.

Without these 20 R+ districts in California the balance would be:

214 D+ seats
9 EVEN seats
212 R+ seats

by: abgin @ Sun Dec 19, 2010 at 19:18:21 PM UTC

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by: you @ soon

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I am really looking forward

to some maps on CA for predictions of the prop 22 (was that the number?) redistricting. I am guessing for instance that Imperial county will not be linked to Downtown San Diego. We will not see Capp's district going up the coastal highway in three counties.

My best guess for CA redistricting is 14 seats that are fairly solid GOP-25 seats that are fairly solid democratic and 14 seats that competitive for the two parties. I could be off on that count as there is lots of uncertainty plus VRA questions abound in CA.

by: rdelbov @ Sun Dec 19, 2010 at 21:10:38 PM UTC

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by: you @ soon

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Once we get the new racial data

I will take a stab at compatible redistricting for the U.S. House delegation, the State Senate, the State Assembly, and a hypothetical 120-member unicameral legislature.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

by: californianintexas @ Sun Dec 19, 2010 at 21:32:26 PM UTC

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by: you @ soon

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Best wishes

Thanks

State senate seats in CA will be +900K in next cycle.

That's like 40 little states with term limits.

by: rdelbov @ Sun Dec 19, 2010 at 21:52:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I especially like the idea

of the hypothetical unicameral legislature. I think more states should experiment with it, and California could use an institutional shake-up more than most states.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

by: borodino21 @ Sun Dec 19, 2010 at 22:07:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

seven seats seems a big gain

but can get short still looking to the limits.

My bid finding the limits want open the mind of many democrats until the limits. It is necessary for be more ambitious in the moment of the redistricting.

The people need to think if is not being too generous with the republicans. Looking to the limits you can concede to the republicans from 0 to 19 seats. What would be the best number? Some people can think it is not necessary advance until the extreme (still a 53-0 map is possible without force the map until the limits), but the people need to think if is not too generous looking to the results of the votes in the US House.

I would encourage you to bid a more democratic Gerrymander of California. Looking to the limits I think you can be able to draw a very good looking map with only 5 GOP districts.

As example, some districts (not many) going from LA to Orange can be very nice districts, pretty compacts, and without break no-one rule of the manuals of good redistricting.

by: abgin @ Mon Dec 20, 2010 at 02:27:56 AM UTC

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by: you @ soon

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Way to messy for the redistricting commission.

Way to messy for a hypothetical Democratic gerrymander too. Look at your LA Districts with tails going into San Diego and Orange County!

Nice work, but this should not happen even in the event of a Democratic gerrymander. Someone in Florence wouldn't want to be in the same district as someone just west of Irvine!

And why the 22,000 unknown?

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

by: TheGradyDem @ Sun Dec 19, 2010 at 21:56:51 PM UTC

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Many of the worse forms are cause of the very rare forms of some precincts.

The area of LA-Orange San Diego get Gerrymandered until the extreme in this map, but that mean not you need to down the limits very much for have a lot more compact districts. This is cause of I was a little more generous with the democratic vote with the districts of the nord.

Some ways what I use here are key for a democratic Gerrymander of California, and the districts what go from Los Angeles to Orange and (some) to the cities of the north of San Diego is one.

With the millions of inhabitants is so easy to have deviations like this. Maybe cause of the some little mistake in the time of include de data in the map, maybe cause of the data of the population and the political data are not from the same year, or maybe I leave some little area without paint but I see not. Surely some of all.

by: abgin @ Mon Dec 20, 2010 at 02:11:03 AM UTC

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Wow!

A masterpiece!

Kudos!

by: emilysdad @ Mon Dec 20, 2010 at 00:49:56 AM UTC

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Thanks )

by: abgin @ Mon Dec 20, 2010 at 01:56:10 AM UTC

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Wow.

This brings a new meaning to the word gerrymandered. Good job abgin.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.

by: hoosierdem @ Mon Dec 20, 2010 at 02:31:44 AM UTC

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Thank you :)

The goal here is find the limits following the current rules.

by: abgin @ Mon Dec 20, 2010 at 03:13:32 AM UTC

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by: you @ soon

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Oh. My. God.

You are brilliant.

That is all.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

by: SaoMagnifico @ Mon Dec 20, 2010 at 05:16:23 AM UTC

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:) Thanks

I glad you get interested.

by: abgin @ Mon Dec 20, 2010 at 13:40:41 PM UTC

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Amazing!

And delightfully ridiculous of course. After I saw that map of Texas without a single Democratic representative, I just got curious about seeing the same thing done to California, just for the novelty of it.

I think maps like these are instructive about why we need some kind of comprehensive district drawing across the whole country so the rules are the same everywhere, and we don't get insane over-reaches every time a state legislature switches hands. In the end, this is an issue of fairness, and the American people deserve to have rational and consistent representation, not bizarre maps designed purely for political gain every 10 years.

by: skaje @ Tue Dec 21, 2010 at 02:03:45 AM UTC

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California: 53-0 with 59% Obama or more | 18 comments