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SSP Daily Digest: 12/16

by: Crisitunity

Thu Dec 16, 2010 at 2:41 PM EST


CA-Sen: Despite getting only a small vote share in the GOP Senate primary this year (as conservatives decided to go with the slightly-more-electable Carly Fiorina), Chuck DeVore is talking Senate again, for 2012, when Dianne Feinstein will presumably run for re-election. Or is he? All he's saying is that he's likely to run in 2012, but hasn't decided what office. Senate is the only thing that's available, though, which makes his statement seem kind of strange (unless he's talking about trying to rejoin the state Assembly). If Barbara Boxer could still win by 10 points in a terrible year, the more-popular Feinstein in a presidential year is an even more daunting target, meaning that DeVore may be the only prominent GOPer crazy enough to take on the task.

MA-Sen: Nobody really has any idea whether or not Vicki Kennedy plans to run for Senate -- she'd probably have a massive field-clearing effect in the Dem primary if she did -- but Joan Vennochi is seeing some signs of the groundwork for a run, looking at Kennedy's stepped-up routine of public appearances around the state.

OH-Sen: Rep. Jim Jordan had probably been the GOPer most associated with a potential run against Sherrod Brown this cycle, but now he's publicly saying that he's "leaning heavily against" the run. He has a plum job coming up as head of the right-wing caucus (the Republican Study Committee), which is often a leadership springboard, and given his ultra-safe district, that may be a more appealing track than rolling the dice on a Senate run. Auditor and soon-to-be Lt. Governor Mary Taylor (who you may recall got a few weeks of Senate speculation in 2009 when conservatives were casting about for someone more charismatic and less wonky than Rob Portman) may be next in line.

PPP is out with its primary numbers for the GOP side, too, and they find that Jordan was actually in first place among those few people who actually know him. It's one of those everybody-but-the-kitchen-sink fields where the guy with the name rec winds up winning out: Incoming AG and ex-Sen. Mike DeWine (who's quite unlikely to run, given his new job) leads at 27, with ex-SoS Ken Blackwell at 17, new SoS Jon Husted at 11, Jordan at 10, Taylor at 7, Rep. Steve LaTourette at 6, new Treasurer Josh Mandel at 5, and state Sen. Kevin Coughlin at 2.

PA-Sen: Quinnipiac's new poll of the Pennsylvania Senate turned out to not be that revealing, seeing as how they only testing Bob Casey Jr. against Generic R. (Although they can be forgiven, given the paucity of GOP candidates willing to reveal themselves yet.) At any rate, Casey is in good shape, although the percentage of people with no opinion seems strangely high, maybe reflective of his low-key nature. He beats Generic R 43-35, and has an approval of 39/29 (55/16 among Dems, 28/42 among GOPers, and 36/30 among indies).

House: Politico has another list of possible rematches among the ranks of defeated Dems. Some of these you're probably already familiar with (Frank Kratovil, Glenn Nye, Phil Hare, and Alan Mollohan(?!?)), but other names now weighing another bid include Dina Titus, Steve Driehaus, Carol Shea-Porter, and Bobby Bright. Mark Schauer says he's waiting to see what the GOP-held Michigan legislature does to his district, and Ron Klein is waiting to see how his district responds to Allen West.

NY-St. Sen.: Craig Johnson lost his case concerning the result in SD-7 (in which the balance of the state Senate hangs) at the Appellate Division level, who found there wasn't a basis for a full hand recount. Johnson is still planning to appeal to the Court of Appeals. (In New York, for some screwed-up reason, the Supreme Court is the court of general jurisdiction and the Court of Appeals is the highest appellate court. Also, hamburgers eat people.)

Switchers: Courtesy of the Fix's Aaron Blake, here's a list from GOPAC of all the state legislators who've switched parties in the last month, if you're having trouble keeping track. There's a list of 20, although almost all come from three states (Alabama, Georgia, and Louisiana). Also an interesting note: we've actually found someone who just switched from the GOP to the Democrats, although you have to go even further into the weeds: Luzerne County (in Pennsylvania) Commissioner Steve Urban. Before you get too excited, though, the move seems to be mostly driven out of personal pique stemming from Urban's recent loss in a state Senate race.

California: It looks like California's switch to a Washington-style "top two" primary is a done deal. It survived a court challenge, with the state Supreme Court refusing to block a challenge to two of its provisions. (One of the provisions is one way in which it'll differ from Washington: in California, party affiliation can be listed only if one belongs to a party that's officially recognized by the state, while in Washington, you can list yourself as belonging to whatever crazy made-up party you want.)

CfG: The Club for Growth is issuing one of its litmus test warnings, saying that primaries will result for GOPers who defy its will... and it's over one of the less controversial things on the current docket: the omnibus spending bill (which contains... gasp!... earmarks.)

Votes: The House, as you're probably well aware, easily passed repeal of Don't Ask Don't Tell yesterday (although its Senate future is hazy; ask again later). The 15 Dem "no" votes are mostly Blue Dogs in socially conservative districts (with nine of them not coming back, either via loss or retirement), with one key exception: Artur Davis, still seeming completely intent on maxing out on his frequent douchebag miles before leaving. The 15 GOP "yes" votes are more interesting, a mix of departing moderates (Castle, Djou, Cao, Ehlers), remaining moderates in well-educated (and presumably low homophobia) districts (Biggert, Reichert, Dent, Platts), GOPers with substantially gay constituencies (Bono Mack, Ros-Lehtinen, Diaz-Balart... and we can double-count Cao), die-hard libertarians (Paul, Flake, Campbell), and in his own category, David Dreier.

WATN?: Dede Scozzafava, perhaps as a reward for, in her own round-about way, giving us the gift of Bill Owens in NY-23, is in talks to get a job in the incoming Cuomo administration. The exact position hasn't been defined, but will be something about "streamlining" government.

Demographics: Here's an interesting piece in the Democratic Strategist that does some demographic slice-and-dice of the House seats where Dems lost. Some of it isn't a surprise (losses occurred where race and education overlap, as the white working class particularly turned right), but it adds an important variable to the mix that nobody else seems to have noticed: manufacturing. There's a definite correlation between losses and how reliant the district is on a manufacturing economy.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 12/16
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I figured DeVore would probably run again
And, given CA-Sen will be as Safe D as it gets, it wouldn't floor me if DeVore won the nomination unopposed. I doubt the likes of Maldonado or Poizner opt to run in 2012, though I could see Poizner running vs. Brown in 2014.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

DeVore could always run for the US House
Depending what redistricting does with the lines in Orange County, if one of the Republicans there opts to retire or even if he wants to tea-bag an incumbent (Ken Calvert?) , he could be considering a House race if he wants to go federal without having to run statewide.

[ Parent ]
The House is his natural peak job
There will always be OC republicans in Congress.  If he wants to actually serve somewhere, that's the place to look.  And, he could teabag Calvert (as a nothing) and Campbell (as too liberal).

[ Parent ]
Should
provide us some entertainment. But surely he'll get some opposition. Some termed out assemblyman or senator.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Speaking of joining the Cuomo admin...
why doesn't Cuomo get one of the GOP-ers in the state senate appointed to something?  

Yes, please...
Although we might want to hold off a while until the Democratic brand strengthens enough for us to win a special election. If he can time it so the election would be in the Spring it would be perfect; plenty of time for people to remember how incompetent Republicans in Congress actually are and right before the redistricting shuffle kicks into full gear

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
I am assuming
That in New York, as in most states, the top executives in state government make more than legislators. If so, the approach to take is to find a longtime GOP legislator in a blue district and point out how much larger their pension would be if they did four years at an appointed job before retiring.

[ Parent ]
Spitzer did it
he got Long Island Republican Senator Michael Balboni to join his cabinet which then opened up his Senate Seat for Craig Johnson to win.


[ Parent ]
Hopefully an appointment follows that model...
As opposed to the legislator being more in line with Sen. Judd "I See What You Did There" Gregg.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Not sure there are any true "moderates" left
in the State Senate GOP caucus. Perhaps one or two on Long Island, but Dems would never win their seats anyway


[ Parent ]
What
will be the most Dem district represented by a repub. What makes the most sense via appointment wise? I wouldn't mind Cuomo pulling a King Beshear.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Easy
Michael Grisanti's D+20something Buffalo district.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
If I wasn't 95% that FL-22 will get axed.
I'd say Ron Klein is the most likely dem loss of 2010 to return in 2012.

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

sure*


CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

[ Parent ]
Phil Hare...
It would be one thing if he lost narrowly, but he lost by ten points against some right-wing smurf. This in a district that the president won by 14 points and even John "Dying Tree" Kerry won by three. What kind of egomaniac is he that he thinks he has a mandate to come back?

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


Ask Allen Boyd
who got trouced by 10 and demands a rematch in 2012 while simultaniously trashing Pelosi and democrats.

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

[ Parent ]
Given that Florida will be getting new districts
And population was disproportionately strong in Tallahassee Metro over the last decade, I'd imagine the redistricting commission might make FL-2 a good deal bluer, right? That would make a Boyd comeback easier, though I think we might want to look into recruiting someone who, you know, isn't an asshole

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
If the new redistricting rules hold up
then yes, the new FL-2 will be centered around liberal-leaning Tallhassee (Boyd's district contained conservative bastion Panama City too).  But, then again, this new seat (if drawn this way) would be ripe for Al Lawson to take, which would be better than Boyd.  I hope to see some maps drawn here soon for FL that includes the new conditions of limiting partisan gerrymandering.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I'm sure the user from the panhandle knows far more...
but the panhandle of FL is like Georgia and Tallahassee is its Atlanta.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Al Lawson would be the best recruit for such a seat.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
There's the possibility of FL-03 swinging west though
The VRA is the only thing that will keep FL-03 in existence now that the fair districts amendment passed, and it's actually a lot easier to make the district black-majority when you run it from Jacksonville to Tallahassee and Gadsden. The current Jacksonville-Gainesville-Orlando configuration is only 49% black and doesn't have the North Florida communities of interest argument on its side. If the map drawers opt for that, Southerland would get a safe district and you could see Lawson challenge Corrine Brown.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
It will be interesting to see
how FL avoids retrogression on FL-03.

I also foresee a forthcoming battle over GA-12. According to the Census projections released yesterday, it is majority white. And that could mean that it doesn't get VRA protection. I will be interested to see how the Georgia Republicans handle it.  


[ Parent ]
Interesting in a good way?
I don't think GA-12 was VRA to begin with (after mid-decade redistricting).  When it was created, it was 40% AA, now it's like 44-45% AA.  They could also do some swaps with that district Austin Scott won to shore him up.

Barrow first ran for that seat in 2002 against Burns in GA-12 when it reached into Athens.  He lost.  He tried again in 2004 and won.  In 2005, GA excised Barrow's home of Athens and added some GOP-leaning areas from GA-01 to try to kill off Barrow.  It failed amidst a pro-Democratic environment and Barrow won.  Barrow even won this year.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Interesting in the sense that
the Republicans can pretty much have their way with south Georgia, except that they probably can't dismantle the 2nd (because of the VRA), and they probably need to strengthen the 8th. It may be that their only option is to do a 2:2 south Georgia split, when they would probably prefer 3:1.

[ Parent ]
Is GA getting a new district?


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Why?
Why do you think Scott needs to be strengthened in the 8th? I guess they could do it, but saying they "probably need to" is a little extreme.

[ Parent ]
I should have said
that they will probably not want to weaken him. At least, not yet. Suffice to say that I don't think they have any great ways to weaken Barrow. They could create some north/south trouble for him, but that's about it.  

[ Parent ]
Huh
I have no idea what you're talking about.

Barrow did not lose to Burns in 2002, he didn't even run. Champ Walker, the son of then powerful State Senate Major Leader Charles Walker, was the Democratic nominee. The seat was practically drawn for him, but his past troubles and his father's ethical issues helped derail his campaign.

Democratic Primary: http://sos.georgia.gov/electio...

General: http://sos.georgia.gov/electio...

Barrow first ran in 2004.


[ Parent ]
Argh, I misread the Wikipedia page.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Ah yes, I once read about
the son of the State Senate President who was anointed to run for that new seat, but was killed by ethics and the GOP wave of 2002 made that doubly worse for him.  It was mentioned in a chapter on Georgia in this book on the rise of evangelicism in American politics in the 20th century to today.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
The Democrats drew an interesting map
in 2001. Probably their biggest miss was in the 11th. You can see some of the proposals here.

[ Parent ]
Something like this might happen
Photobucket

It is 46% White, but 45% Black, 5% Hispanic, which should be enough to qualify it as acceptable under the VRA and the best shape that could work under the new rules.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.


[ Parent ]
Nicely done.
Is such a district good or bad for Dems?  Will Corinne Brown's district be moved further south or something or is this the replacement for Brown's district?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
This would be the replacement for Brown's current district
This one would be good for Democrats, as the Republican influence is minimal, as the heavily Democratic areas in Jacksonville and Tallahassee would be the main anchors.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
Nice job
This was my attempt before Fair Districts passed. It might not fly anymore.

Green-Brown 48% black
Red-Crenshaw
Purple-Southerland
Teal-Stearns

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
My solution:
Throw out partisan-based redistricting nationwide like Mike Gravel throws rocks into lakes.



Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Pardon my French, but...
those red and green districts are fucking ugly!  It's amazing how much leeway is left to the states.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Haha
The current third is pretty ugly too! And the rest of the map that goes with that screenshot is just as aggressive--South Florida in particular looks nasty.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
How much of an effect will
that Prop have on redistricting?  Any guesses?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Probably mostly in South Florida
Other than FL-03, the north and central districts aren't horrible in their current forms, and you wouldn't change their politics that much by cleaning up the lines. You'll probably see a new Democratic seat in Orlando, but it was time for that anyway.

South Florida, on the other hand, is going to look completely different. FL-20, 22, and 23 are very ugly as it stands and the former two will probably be smoothed out. Allen West may not have a district to run in next time.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
A Dem Orlando district
could mean the return of Alan Grayson, but I dunno.  I love his politics, but that "Taliban Dan" ad made me want to smack my head against a wall (don't worry, I didn't).  I KNEW it would backfire and was too over-the-top not to.  Who the hell greelighted it...it was absolutely a mistake.  I guess doing over-the-top, highly-exaggerative ads only works if you're Saxby Chambliss.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Grayson
Grayson himself was behind that ad.  He was trying to impress Kos as near as I could tell.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

[ Parent ]
Well, with my moderate views
i never thought that i would ever root for Webster. But after "Taliban Dan" ad - i did...

[ Parent ]
And on your comment on FL-22
What does that mean, "may not have a district to run in" in this context?  Are they going to adjust it, but that will result in swappings with FL-23?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
FL-22 is a major gerrymander
The district pieces together swing areas of two super-blue counties to make a 50/50 district. This is the only way a Republican can even get elected in Palm Beach and Broward. If they make FL-22 sensible-looking and compact, it will be about D+8.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
That sounds
like a great slogan for any potential primary opponent for Boyd: "[name]...someone who, you know, isn't an asshole."

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
He has a total right to run.
But he blew it and is blaming everyone else but himself for it. Not exactly a class act. As for the district getting bluer I imagine it will but Allen Boyd is allready damaged goods and probably would'nt have won the new district either. The left is totally apathetic to him and the right now has an incumbent congressman to rally around. I don't think Al Lawson would be the best candidate but a new one is needed. Honestly it would be like fighting for Bobby Bright in a district that will probably almost give Obama 50% or maybe just barely put him over. The only reason I place him with Phil Hare is that he has the same mantality of owning his seat.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

[ Parent ]
Depends
Is there a better candidate there? That's not a rhetorical question...I'm actually curious. The sad thing about a lot of these Deep South districts is that they're often out of the Dems' reach unless they're majority black.

I suppose Tallahassee just might be blue enough and big enough to make a winning coalition candidate possible, if one existed.  The district as a whole went 54% for McCain. (If Dems were drawing the lines, they could find a way to get Gainesville in there and at least salvage something from North Florida.)


36, M, Democrat, MD-03


[ Parent ]
FSU & UF
They'd be in the same district if somehow Dems could pull that off.  I wonder who the new congressman would support :P

20, Ind, Fl-13 & Fl-6 (college)

[ Parent ]
I
really like Hare a lot. But yes, it's probably time for someone new. It really depends on how redistricting goes.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Interesting.
Platts actually represents a pretty conservative district, entirely out of the reach of metro Philadelphia - not in the same category as the metropolitan districts of Reichert or Biggert or the Miami Cubans or even Dent. (Sometimes people leaving Greater Baltimore settle in York County, and those people tend to be very conservative.) Though we haven't yet seen a serious primary challenge to Platts, it gets talked about fairly often in wingnuttia. There were even rumors he was being considered for some sort of Obama administration post - who knows whether those had any basis at all in reality....

Drier, rumors of his own tendencies aside, does represent what's become a swing-ish part of (outer) metropolitan Los Angeles. He'd be one of the easiest Congresscritters to district out of existence if California Democrats had the ability to do so...

 

36, M, Democrat, MD-03


I wonder if Biggert
is keeping her options open about which district she'll run in. I'd say it's pretty probable that she won't have one: from afar she seem like a pretty weak target.  

[ Parent ]
She's pretty popular in her district
The fiscally-conservative, pro-choice, pro-gay rights grandmother apparently still plays pretty well in suburban Chicagoland. In fact, you could see IL Dems make her district the GOP vote sink (Naperville plus the red exurbs) because she's the most moderate of the IL Republicans and would theoretically vote with them the most often. The same thing could have happened with Mary Bono Mack in CA-45 if the independent commission hadn't passed.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
I've always assumed
that Dreier would just move 15 miles down the road, and hang on in a new district for the 2010s--and then repeat the process in 2022.

[ Parent ]
Dreier
I think Dreier appears in the category by himself for obvious enough reasons, but you're right, his district is well educated and probably pretty supportive of gay rights (though Prop 8 did actually pass there surprisingly easily, 59-41).

I do actually think though that his district is still on borrowed time because a new Hispanic-majority district probably needs to be created in Eastern LA County. The whitest parts of his district could probably end up in CA-29, a few substantially Asian towns could find their way into CA-32 if the commission takes that district in the obvious direction, and what's left could be paired with Pomona.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
David Dreier and "rumors of his own tendencies"
Well, I can think of 2 very good reasons why David Dreier's HRC score might show some sudden improvement this Congress.

1) The LGBT community has basically declared "No More Mr. Nice Gay" and is starting to play some serious, NRA-style hardball. See also: NY State Senate races. About friggin' time, imho.

2) Former RNC chair Ken Mehlman finally came out publicly in 2010 and is playing very cooperatively with Team Gay thus far (he threw a fundraiser that netted a million bucks for the Olson/Boies effort to overturn Prop 8). I don't think he'd out Dreier, but it's got to make him nervous because you know Mehlman knows where the condoms are buried.

Remember, Mehlman was RNC chair in 2005 when Dreier was rejected for a House leadership position, which the media dutifully reported was due to his being a "moderate." And to which Barney Frank replied: "Yes, in the sense that I marched in the moderate pride parade last summer and went to a moderate bar."

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
Barney Frank quote
One of my all time favorite quotes.  

[ Parent ]
Barney Frank's a quotable guy
I mean, seriously, the guy is basically the closest thing America has had to Winston Churchill in terms of biting, politicized wit. Just don't call him sassy.

On Reagan: "I don't begrudge Ronald Reagan an occasional nap. We must understand it's not the dozing off of Ronald Reagan that causes us problems. Its what he does on those moments when he's awake." AND "Ronald Reagan believes in the free market like some people believe in unicorns."

On Bush: "Rather than the boy who cried wolf, George Bush is the reverse. He claims that there is nothing wrong when there is. He's the boy who cried, 'Nice doggie.'"  AND   "The problem with the war in Iraq is not so much the intelligence as the stupidity."

On Haters: "There is a correlation between people who attack same-sex marriage and have difficulty maintaining their own."

On Congress: "If you're not able to work closely with people you despise, you can't really work here."

Response to Rep. Marjorie Holt (R-MD), who declared that "this is a Christian nation" during an all-night debate on school prayer chaired by Frank: "If this is a Christian nation, how come some poor Jew has to get up at 5:30 in the morning to preside over the House of Representatives?"

The dude is a quote machine. Source: http://barneyfrank.net/quotes

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
Don't Ask Don't Tell
Has 61 votes according to Lieberman. But it depends on getting the tax bill through first. I just hope House Dems grandstanding doesn't put it in jeopardy along with START and possibly DREAM.

61 votes
Not just according to Lieberman, also according to Senators' public statements: Measure got 57 votes last week. Lincoln had said she would have voted for it had she not been at dentist; Manchin said he'd vote yes if he was 60th vote; Brown and Murkowski have said they'll vote to support standalone bill.  

Twitter.com/Taniel

[ Parent ]
And Snowe, maybe 62
Snowe:
http://www.slate.com/blogs/blo...

wonder if Kirk or Lugar are possibilities as well.

Kirk is officially non-commital.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/...


[ Parent ]
Kirk
It is a sign to see if he going to be a semi-moderate like the snowe/olympia/brown camp or the rest of the republicans. He knows that he must vote carefully to make sure that his right and left flank is secured  

[ Parent ]
Kirk is an...
well you know the rest.  I just read his snide comments on the spending bill and START. He is NO moderate. I would not count on him for DADT.  I cannot believe that he won.  But he is too conservative for IL. I just wish his term was up during a presidential year.  


41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...


[ Parent ]
He's
up in 2016 (a presidential year). Hopefully Illinois Dems will dig up a decent nominee not riddled with ethical holes like Alexi was. If only Kirk was exposed as a pathological liar closer towards election day....

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
It almost seems like too much to hope for in the lame duck session
Passing Tax Bill / START / DREAM / DADT

But getting say 3 out of the 4 passed would certainly be a significant feather in building President Obama's bipartisan credentials in the minds of the American people, a good way to kick off the '12 campaign in the current environment.


[ Parent ]
Inside Play
Rep. Ed Towns (D-NY) backed out of race for Ranking Member of House Oversight Committee at the urging of leadership.  The Dem Steering Committee has recommended Rep. Elijah Cummings instead.  The reason for nudging out Towns?  They wanted a Dem who isn't afraid to stand up to Darrell Issa.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Murkowski and DADT
You think we can expect to see Murkowski making more of these kinds of votes? I know conservatives have had it out with her in the past over being too "moderate," but during this, the Congress of Obstinate Republicans, she's voted pretty much the party line to help weaken Obama. Now that she's realized her party base isn't crazy about her and she won reelection largely on Dem and Indie support, do you think she'll move slightly toward the center? Or is DADT repeal a one time aberration to vote in favor of something she actually supports?  

NY-01/NY-19

She voted for the Hates Crimes bill a year ago as well
Kudos to her for having her head pulled out of her ass.

[ Parent ]
Murkowski
will probably be more Lieberman like. She'll continue to vote with the Republicans 98% of the time, occasionally giving McConnell and Kyl heartburn over some issues until they meet her demands, but she'll side with the Democrats on some issues, perhaps on earmarks and her pet causes. Don't know how her and Young will be able to get their earmarks through Boehner's house though.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Of course she'll support earmarks and be socially centrist.
And Boehner banning earmarks?  Please, they'll just call it something else other than "earmarks" and "pork."  Boehner is what they would call a "Good Old Boy" politician in the rural regions.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
True
the tea party and Fox News just shammed McConnell into demanding Reid yank the omnibus spending bill because they were caught stuffing earmarks into the entire bill after voting to impose a caucus wide moratorium on earmarks, on top of the fact a trillion dollar bill gets the GOP foaming at the mouth.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Ron Wyden diagnosed with Prostate Cancer.
http://www.oregonlive.com/poli...

He's going to get his prostate removed on Monday at John Hopkins Hospital in Maryland.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Urgh
Wish him a speedy recovery.

[ Parent ]
guh
The article says it's stage 1, and he appears to be in good shape so he should recover without too much trouble. Still, what a pain in the ass.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Luckily they can ratify START without him.
To ratify a treaty, it takes 2/3rds of all Senators PRESENT on the floor to ratify it.  If all 100 were there, it would take 67, with 1 missing, it would take 66.  Yesterday, they voted 66-32 (with Begich and Enzi absent) to open up debate on the treaty.  That's a good sign.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Do you have a link for that
First time I've seen it.

[ Parent ]
Right here:
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

Also, although he's getting it checked out today, he'll be voting this weekend.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Thanks
Bayh didn't vote so that would be 66. And there is probably 60 for DADT without him. Good prognosis news on all counts.  

[ Parent ]
Was that supposed to be a pun?
"Still, what a pain in the ass."

;-)

Well, if they are using the robot surgeon, then he should be back on his feet within a few days.  That DaVinci robot is great... in the right surgeon's hands, of course!


[ Parent ]
Hmmmm
Senator Vicki Kennedy. I think I like the sound of that.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

I like "Victoria"
Sounds regal, and why not for a member of the family that brought us "Camelot."

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
to play devil's advocate
"queen Victoria thinks she can be anointed to the senate.  well it's not royalties seat, it's the peoples!"

Not saying she'd be a bad candidate, but this could look similar to caroline kennedy, with the exception that Vicky (seriously, she's going to need to play up "everymanness") is running for election, rather than appointment.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.


[ Parent ]
Here's a better slogan in response to that
"Free MA's Senate seat from the Borg collective, vote [Democratic candidate]!"

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
quasi right wing populist
statement versus, I'm guessing Star Trek, quote?  sadly i do not think startrek would work better with the electorate.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
I know, I was just being funny.
But if you're running for Senate and win, you were elected by the people so that statement they could use about "feeling entitled to the seat" makes no logical sense since the winner has earned it fair and square.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I agree
but one i'm talking before the election and two, it doesn't matter to some people, the very fact that she was Ted's wife means she was "anointed."  the logic i think is that the celebrity status "tricked" the electorate and without it, she never would have won.  It's a stupid argument, but if it works with swing parts of the electorate, it needs to be countered.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Vicky
She would be an infinitely better candidate than Caroline. She actually got the political gene in her family. Seriously, Caroline has to be the one person in that family without a politician gene. Vicky was Ted's top adviser, and was active in Democratic politics in Louisiana before she moved married Ted, and I have a hard time seeing her being as faily a candidate as Caroline.  

[ Parent ]
true, but
don't you think republicans would bring out the "she's just being propped up to her husband's seat" argument.  even if caroline had been a good candidate, that wouldn't have stopped this argument.  Now, I realize this sounds a bit concern trollish and I'm not saying it's fatal, but in a state with as a big of a democratic bench as mass, where the party could, arguably do better, all liabilities should be considered.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
They could,
but I'm not sure if it would hurt her. For one thing, she'd have to go through a primary, and she'd be running for the seat in a general election. The argument you describe would be much more powerful if she were running after being appointed, but even then, I'm not sure it'd kill her.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I
really like the idea of Kennedy running as well. She'd be the best we could get.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
More than one Kennedy
Joseph Patrick Kennedy II is still here. Although he likes his public advocacy work, he still will have to at least consider the seat. He seems to be semi-interest  

[ Parent ]
I hope everyone of the potential candidates to be interested in unseat S Brown

Even if is a Kennedy or not. I wish to count every one of the potential candidates and I wish to know who is the favorite of the people.

[ Parent ]
Looking
ahead 2 years into the future. Apparently the choices for the Democratic convention have been whittled down to Charlotte and St. Louis. What city would you choose?

http://www.politico.com/news/s...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


Charlotte
MO is a tougher climb for Dems. NC looks like a legit toss-up again, they should build up enthusiasm there. Of course, I'm rooting for St. Louis, but Charlotte is a better strategical choice for Dems.  

[ Parent ]
*writes down notes and speeds off to DNC HQ*


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
plus
i've never been to charlotte but st louis is so ugly

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

[ Parent ]
Isn't East St. Louis the ugly one?


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
It's pretty dilapidated
 I read about it in Kozol's book Savage Inequalities. E. St. Louis has 28,000 people now but 82,000 in the 50's. It also has severe sewage problems and the air is polluted becuase of a big monsanato factory nearby. Also, the schools there have almost no money and it gets worse as taxpayers keep leaving.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
***k you, Monsanto.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Reminds me of Camden, NJ over here.
:'(

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I
love St. Louis. Certain parts are ugly but for the most part it's a great city.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
i found it really ugly
when i stayed there (national high school journalism convention of 2008)

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

[ Parent ]
Well
maybe you have more attractive looking cities in Cali than we do here. I have personally always liked St. Louis a lot. Just me though.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Downtown St. Louis is ugly
The city probably has one of the worst downtowns in the country. It has gotten somewhat livelier over the past decade, but overall it's pretty dead.

The unfortunate thing is most people zip through downtown, maybe stop at the Arch, without realizing that St. Louis actually has several gorgeous neighborhoods all over midtown and the South Side. Yes, a little dilapidated in parts, but overall quite nice.  


[ Parent ]
Charlotte
Charlotte imapcts VA too, the Dems taking the (coastal) south seriously.

St Louis impacts nothing else helpful or needing help.  Also Charlotte would be more of a NC thing that St Louis would be a Missouri thing.


[ Parent ]
You
do have a point. St. Louis/Kansas City might as well be chopped off from the rest of Missouri since they are so ideologically and culturally different from "Missoura" or the rest of the state. Plus McCaskill and Nixon won't have to be put in the situation Norm Coleman was placed in 2008, being forced to attend the DNC convention when you know it'll hurt you politically since its in your own state.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Personally
I'm hoping for St. Louis as I could actually go to that. It's right near my sister so I could easily make the excuse of going. Only a five hour drive. I couldn't make the excuse of going to Charlotte though. Though Charlotte is probably the better option, even if I don't like it.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I would choose Charlotte
Because they've never hosted a convention for either major party before and North Carolina will be on the target list.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
It'll be Charlotte I bet
Because it's on the target list and Obama can certainly ramp up the same type of student enthusiasm with the convention in the state.

[ Parent ]
What, they've given up on Ohio already?
What happened to Cleveland?

[ Parent ]
I guess Kasich
took a leak on the convention center and shouted "This is my territory!"

Oh boy, how funny that would look irl.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Hehe


19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Don't be so "concerned"
They aren't giving up on anything. I too vote for Charlotte.

[ Parent ]
I think Ohio is better than Missouri and North Carolina

Since the point of find the reelection. It would not be rare if Obama loses all the south (Florida, North Carolina and Virginia), but Obama can win still without the south. Of course they are states for fight, but before Obama need to assure the victory in other bluest states like New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, New Hampshire, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania. Here they are low margin of error. And here they are a lot of states of the mid-western area (without count Ohio and Indiana). The republicans will go hard for win states in the mid-west + Pennsylvania.

I think Ohio can be a key state in the area, more than Missouri what seems too difficult for win this time. In addition, Ohio seems to have a competitive senate race and a decent number of competitive house seats, like the neighbor Pennsylvania.

What about Columbus? Can be a good place since a strategic point. Maybe better than Cleveland.


[ Parent ]
Whichever local government seems more organized
Conventions haven't seemed to help the party in that state.  I know the convention choice could help send a message (Colorado in 2008 was supposed to show how committed to the West Dems were) but really how much of the electorate in even that region is going to detect the message/ care?  Maybe if its something so overt you can't miss it like NYC was to the GOP in 2004 but otherwise I don't think it matters that much.  They should go with the city that can pull off a smooth convention the best.    

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
I have no proof of this,
but I imagine that any gains the Republicans felt from 2000 to 2004 in the New York metro area were from tax cuts and from security issues that would have happened regardless of where the convention was held. I don't think this makes much of a difference, unless you do something creative with it like the Obama campaign did in 2008 when it secured something like 40,000 voter contact e-mail addresses and/or phone numbers from people waiting in line.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I agree that the GOP could have held their convention anywhere in 2004 and made gains in the NYC area
The message was more for the nation: "We remember 9/11 and will protect you from it."  MAYBE that may have helped a little more in New York and New Jersey but I doubt much.  The GOP used New York well to reinforce their campaign message.  But that's a very rare exception.  I don't think there's any city that either party can use to pitch economic recovery well.  

With the rare exceptions like New York in 2004 I don't think the convention sight helps really.  Smart Politics did a study that found that the location of the Democratic Convention boosts the party 0.0% in that state.  (They haven't released their study of the Republican Convention.)  http://blog.lib.umn.edu/cspg/s...    

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
0.0%?
Now that's the comment of the day!

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I could have sworn the article used that number but looking over it I don't see it
Dang: it made for a fun statistic.  

Still, this is from the article and not my imagination:

Since 1960, Democrats have experienced only a 0.26-point increase in the convention's host state against the national average compared to the previous election cycle.



21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Charlotte
does seem to be home to a lot of emerging alternative energy companies. Perhaps there's a way to work that into a platform of giving people jobs and, you know, saving the planet.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
An uncle of mine moved there because
of all of the high-tech job opportunities there.  The sucking in of all of the high-tech professionals from the west (Texas, CA where my uncle was from, etc.) has also played a part in blueing NC.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
If there's a way to incorporate high tech green jobs into the overall message that would be a big plus
I hadn't really thought of that.  I'm not quite sure how it would work but that would be a big plus for Charlotte.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
DADT, MN-3
Erik Paulsen is going to get it some day.  That would have been an easy vote for Ramstad and if the country supports its repeal with polls Ive seen ranging from roughly 65%-77%, then this district would be damn near 73%-85%.  And it's not just this vote but several others that make him much more conservative than his predecessor.  He got lucky in 2008, 2010 obviously was never going to happen, and now his 2012 prospects are sunnier because we dont control the entire redistricting process.

But his day will come, that district is going to slip right out from underneath him some day if he doesnt ever throw a few votes to the Democrats to build moderate cred.  State senator Bonoff is biding her time.  (We're very lucky she survived 2010, absolute murder in districts like hers.)


Charlotte
Let's get serious about the coastal South.

My gut instinct was actually St. Louis so we could boost Nixon and McCaskill, but, on second thought, I'm actually not sure if holding the Convention there would hurt them or help them. The Convention certainly didn't help Coleman much on the GOP side in '08. In Charlotte, the only statewide candidate to worry about in NC in 2012 is Perdue, and she seems to be in more trouble than Nixon or McCaskill. If the Convention turns out to be a boost, maybe it will make the difference for Perdue, if it turns out to be an embarrassment, well, she wasn't looking strong for reelection anyway and she's less crucial than McCaskill to Obama.

Besides that, the Midwest went from a battleground to a bloodbath for the Dems between '08 and '10. Meanwhile, Dems generally held their own in NC last month. I say we keep making Team Red play defense on their home turf.

P.S. Apparently the unions are lobbying for St. Louis. North Carolina is a right-to-work state, I believe.  

NY-01/NY-19


I'm for Charlotte
because I like the nod towards states like North Carolina, Virginia, and Georgia that are slowly, sometimes very slowly, turning blue. I don't think it makes much of a difference in the end, though.

By the way, the Midwest will forever and always be an electoral battleground, even if one year it turns into a bloodbath for one side.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
NC
The NC dems did not hold up that well actually. We lost the legislature for the first time since reconstruction and the only reason we didn't lose bad in the house is because of an amazing Dem gerrymander. That will end in 2012.  

[ Parent ]
As will also
the GOP hold on the legislature.  And I'll bet they'll only be able to bump off no more than 2 congressmen.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
What makes you say that?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
My rationale:
Kissell is no sweat to bump off.  McIntyre is next, of course, but who knows with him.  Schuler is also a big target, but since he is crammed into the panhandle, it's not as easy to gerrymander his district because the supermajority of his district's perimeter is with another state.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I'd say that NC ends up with a
8-3-2 split.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
But of course
it'll probably end up like GA with someting like 8-5 GOP-Dem.  But who knows at this point.  Also, the AA proportion is predicted to be ~25% when the census comes back, so that may make it harder for the GOP in NC to bring the hammer to them like they were hoping.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
And who is gone?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Kissell for sure
Then they'll try to see what they can do with McIntyre and Schuler and Brad Miller.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I hate to seem
so dense, but why are you so sure we are screwed in that state?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I'm not
I just think they'll be able to take down only 2 Dems and make a few others more swingy.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
That's my cynical view on the matter.
It assumes the NC GOP will go all-out instead of playing it safe.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Because the current map is a Democratic gerrymander
and the new map is going to be a Republican one. And because it's really easy to pack the Democrats into 2 or 3 urban districts plus Butterfield's 1st. And because once you've done that packing, it's not that hard to make the rest of the districts 55%-ish McCain districts. And because a 55% McCain district is actually very Republican.

There's been a number of North Carolina redistricting diaries recently if you care to look at the argument for worry more deeply. Personally, if I were advising the Republicans, I'd recommend they go for a 9-4 split; but the most recent NC diary outlined a pretty solid looking 10-3 map.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.


[ Parent ]
Long
term trends in the state are good though. Democrats are going to be trashed in the rural areas, though McIntyre and Shuler survived ever though the former was heavily targeted and the latter was sitting in a very hostile district. Also Kissell (with his piss poor fundraising) survived as well. The trashing in the rural areas is going to be offset by the bluing suburbs and urban areas. North Carolina and Virginia are moving away from the solid red column to a purple with a tint of red swing state.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
It was NOT the first time since Reconstruction
From '95-'99, the GOP had the State House, and had a coalition majority from '03-'05.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Why will that end in 2012?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I'm just trying to get the ball rolling.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Walt Minnick done for good
http://www.rollcall.com/news/-...

I don't know of any other Democrat that can make it a race in Idaho, sadly.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


He's pretty old, too, so it's not like we lost a rising star.
Maybe that Keith Allred guy who ran for Governor this year.  It also says there that they are expected to push Boise into Simpson's district.  Now, if Simpson gets caught in a scandal. . . .

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Simpson's?
That'd be tough. Where would the population come from to fill in the 1st? Any shift in population the size of Boise would require massive shifts of other area. Although I can see why Republicans want to do it. The panhandle doesn't reflexivity despise Democrats the way the eastern (Mormon) portion does. So putting the city of Boise in with the panhandle does make the 1st slightly less than 1005 safe.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
Well, according to that article
Simpson's district has 100,000 fewer people than the 1st, so the shift is needed.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Oops, misread it. ><
The Idaho Democratic Party's best chance at winning a House seat in the next 10 years may shift east to Republican Rep. Mike Simpson's 2nd district. With the 1st district believed to have a Republican edge of 100,000 voters, the district line, which currently runs down Boise's Cole Road, may shift west to push all of Boise into Simpson's district.

But of course, until he retires, Simpson is untouchable.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Indeed
ignore my comment below.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
I think you misread it
It said that the Republicans have a 100,000 person advantage in the 1st. Not that there was a 100,000 person discrepancy between the 1st and 2nd.  

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
The Mayor of Boise is a Democrat
Assuming Boise got shifted into ID-02 it would almost certainly take a Simpson scandal/ retirement for Mayor David Bieter to have a shot.  But if that happened I can see him putting up a good fight.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Half of Boise
Is already in the 2nd. But the more swingy, Western part of the city is in the 1st. Why they chose to break up the city that way, I have no idea. But as far as I can tell, that has been the case for a long time, as far back as I can find congressional district maps.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
I assume the mayor would do better with his entire constituency in his district
That's of course assuming he ever runs.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Looking over Idaho Dems who are likely to be in ID-01's 2012 boundries
In the Idaho House we have Shirley Ringo of Moscow and John Rusche of Lewingston.  I believe Moscow's pretty liberal so getting elected as a Dem there may not be a sign of broader appeal.   I barely know anything about John Rusche but he has consistently won in what I believe is a conservative area: if Labrador looks vulnerable (big if) Rusche may be our best candidate.  

In the Senate we have Dan Schmidt of Moscow and that's really it in ID-01.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Oh I can imagine
being from Moscow has limited appeal. Oy Vey!

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
That's my thinking: glad Idaho has a liberal enclave but can't imagine too much broader appeal


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
It's like being from Bloomington.
No one else in Indiana looks to keenly on us. I might as well be from Moscow of USSR.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Tulane had that within New Orleans before Katrina
We were seen as a bunch of rich Northern kids who vomited on people's lawns.  After Katrina it's kinda changed especially since Tulane's had a lot more public service outreach.  Though of course many of us remain rich kids who vomit on people's lawns (not me!)  I don't really see this kind of thing in state with Berkley or Davis for whatever reason.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Wow a fellow Greenie'
I graduated from Newcomb (when it existed) in 91.

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...


[ Parent ]
Whoa, I thought I was the only one here!


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
'95 graduate of A.B. Freeman
..the Tulane business school.  Graduated with a degree in Latin American studies from the graduate school at the same time.  So glad I went to Tulane.  Wouldn't trade it for anything.  Best of luck to both of my fellow Tulanians!

[ Parent ]
University of Idaho
That is located in Moscow. So it is probably the typical college-town-liberal group. Although being a representative from there may not be an indicator, unless the district contains a lot of other turf.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
Moscow is like two thirds of Latah County, which is well to the left of the state
Latah voted for Bush but Obama won it 51%-44%.  I'm assuming Moscow is the most liberal part of a fairly Democratic (for Idaho) county.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Yes
Although how much of a house district is Latah County overall? I don't feel like digging through legislative districts and maps. But if Latah County is only 1/4 of the entire district, that would be a lot different than if it were its own district.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
Latah
Are you talking about U.S. House or Idaho House?

On the federal  level, Latah County is entirely contained entirely within ID-01. Minnick carried Latah 57%-36% over Labrador, and the Dem challengers for governor (Allred) and Education Superintendent (Olson) also eked out narrow victories (50%-49%) over the Republican incumbents there. Latah is in Idaho Senate District 6, and it is represented by a Democrat, while its two seats in the Idaho House (Districts 6A and 6B) are split between a Democrat and a Republican. Its entire legislative delegation hail from Moscow.

For the 2010, Latah County represented 12,500+ votes of the 247,400+ votes cast in ID-01.

In 2008, it represented 18,000+ votes of the 347,500+ cast in ID-01. It voted 51-44 for LaRocco over Risch for the US Senate, and 62-38 for Minnick over Sali. Latah was also one of the three counties that Obama carried in 2008, and one of the two (the other being Blaine) that voted against amending the constitution to bar same-sex marriage in 2006.  

26, Liberal Democrat, gay male, CA-38


[ Parent ]
Thank you
I was referring to the state legislative level, and specifically the state representative that was mentioned above in the thread. But you answered the question on both counts.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
Thanks for the info!
I'll do a similar analysis for Lewiston to see how viable John Rusche looks on paper.

Lewiston had about 32,000 people, making it a bit more than half of Nez Perce County.  (Population about 38,900.)

Nez Perce County is entirely withing ID-01 on the Panhandle: it's very hard to see a scenario where it gets redistricted out.   Minnick won 50%-43% here in 2010.  Otter won 57.73%-35.15%.  McCain won 58.11% here in 2008. In 2006 the county banned gay marriage 60%-40%.  In 2006 Grant won the county 55%-41%, and in 2008 Minnick won 57%-43%.

Like Moscow, Lewiston's two House seats are represented by one member of each party.  However, Lewiston is represented by a Republican in the Senate.

In 2010 Nez Perce cast 11,641 votes for either Minnick or Labrador (I can't find third party results).  ID-1 cast 227,925 votes.

Bottom line: Lewiston is definitely conservative but not too much by Idaho standards.  Getting a politician from Lewiston to run may be good but he would be from the area of ID-01 we're already winning in close elections.  However, it's not like we have many options.

John Rusche running would not be a game changer. (I hate that term btw, but it fits here). If Labrador is a jerk but not an embarrassment he's going to be fine.  But if Labrador starts to get his Sali on then the DCCC may want to give Rusche a call.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Dayton and Koch
Governor-elect Dayton, and Senate Majority Leader Koch have promised to work together more than Pawlenty and Pogemiller did. Pogemiller made it very clear that he hated Pawlenty as a person, and the feelings were quite mutual. So any improvement from that would be drastic.

http://www.minnpost.com/storie...

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


Aww, Koch gave Dayton
a big jar of M&M's.  Now that's bipartisanship we will never see over in D.C. :)

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Reagan gave out jelly beans!
Although I think that was only at cabinet meetings, so they may not have been bipartisan jelly beans.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Hill
does another exit interview. He reaffirms what he has already said. Hill will not run for Governor. Also will likely not run for Congress again. Flirts with saying he wants a job with Obama, saying he wants to work with the President on his re-election. If he doesn't get that he'll probably take a lobbying job like he did after his first loss, which he also alludes to saying he needs to provide for his family.

http://www.courierpress.com/ne...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


Hill's
a good man. I wish him well. Too bad he won't run for governor, but I could understand why he wouldn't want to run another tough race.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
I wish he'd run for Senate
He has nothing to lose at this point, and IF Lugar loses the primary, Hill would be well-positioned to win the seat.

But I can understand his desire not to do that. I just really hope IN Dems can recruit at least a viable B-list candidate who'd be able to take advantage of Lugar not making it out of the primary.  


[ Parent ]
Politico
does some tea leaf reading in Arizona. Apparently there's a growing consensus among GOP party insiders including the outgoing chairman of the Arizona GOP that Kyl's retiring in 2012. They do say he could run again and he's sitting on $620k, not an amount to sneeze at, but he has to give up the whip position in 2014 and McConnell says he's going to run for reelection in 2014. (Gees, did McConnell really tell Bunning he was too old to run again or he didn't want to tell the media he said to Bunning he was too insane?)

http://www.politico.com/news/s...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


Should Gabby go for it
or should she wait until '16, when McCain turns 80?

(Assuming President Obama is re-elected, '14 might be nearly as difficult as '10, unless Boehner or someone of similar stature goes all Gingrich in '13 or so.)


[ Parent ]
If Sen. Kyl gets out...
I guarantee Rep. Giffords will get in.

Giffords would do very well to spend lots of time in Phoenix during the next recess. If she banks enough votes in Maricopa County, with her existing base in Southern Arizona, she will cruise over a non-incumbent - especially if she ramps up outreach to the Native American tribes in Northern Arizona.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
Is she well known
statewide? I ask because there was a fairly recent poll from PPP that put her up against Kyl, which had her trailing 52-39. There are any number of reasons that could be, but if I had to guess, I'd say the biggest is  that she's just not that well known all over the state.

Anyway, I'm not sure I want her to plan a Senate run, because that means my very unlikely, very outside-the-box, 10,000:1/ Kevin-from-"The Office"-talking-about-John-Mellencamp-winning-an-Oscar-style prediction of Giffords being the Democratic vice presidential nominee in 2012 won't come true.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
If Kyl gets out probably Shadegg runs
Assuming he gets nominated he'd be tough but not invincible.  Though his home base is about the area Giffords would need to win over so that could be a big problem.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Flake
Would beat Shadegg.  

[ Parent ]
Flake is the last maverick of AZ.
So I wouldn't mind him being Senator if we can't have a Dem.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Is he the only person
Loved by liberals and conservatives?

[ Parent ]
I wouldn't say he is "loved"
Although he is considered very conservative, but not insane, or irrational like some of his congressional brethren. He is better than Shedagg, let me put it that way.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
A quote from Esquire sums it up:
In October 2008, Esquire named Congressman Flake one of the Ten Best Members of Congress saying in part, "A true conservative, Flake is as rare as the dodo. Republicans should learn from him, and liberals and libertarians will find in him a strong privacy-rights ally."


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
He is more of the Ron Paul
Although not a 100% strict Libertarian, he is a (small-l) libertarian for sure.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
Not necessarily
A lot of the base in AZ dislikes Flake because of his support for Comprehensive Immigration Reform and distaste for SB1070.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
Jeff Flake would be a strong contender if Kyl retires
He is a very conservative guy and the Tea Party loves him, but he has a libertarian streak (he voted for DADT repeal this week) that would help him in a general election. Flake vs. Giffords would be a heck of a matchup in 2012.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Wow
Definitely seems like a distinct possibility.

I'd love to see a Gabrielle Giffords campaign personally. She's an outstanding fundraiser and has a centrist profile that would be a good fit statewide. She's been particularly successful in threading the needle with regards to her position on immigration, legal and otherwise. She also ran an outstanding GOTV operation last cycle, this in a state where the state party provides virtually nothing in that department. Her biggest problem would be her virtual anonymity outside of Baja Arizona. She'll have to introduce herself to a lot of new voters and may have to deal with a bunch of Tucson vs. Phoenix bullshit from party operative and fundraisers.

Phoenix mayor Phil Gordon would be the other tier-one candidate for Dems in this race. He already represents about 20% of the state as the mayor and is well known in Maricopa County. He has a centrist profile like Giffords, but one of his drawbacks is that he does a lot more to piss off the base than Giffords does, even though they're pretty similar on the issues. Also, he'd have to learn how to fundraise for a major federal race, something we already know Giffords is very good at.

I think Terry Goddard has probably lost one too many statewide races to launch a serious run at this point, but you never know. Those in the know see him as a more likely candidate than Giffords, particularly if Kyl doesn't retire. He does have state-wide name recognition and he has won tough races before. Call him Tier 1.5.

Tier-two potential Democratic candidates include Corporation Commissioners Paul Newman and Sandra Kennedy, who have been elected statewide before but to a low-profile office. There might be pressure in particular on Kennedy to run because of the fact that there are no African-American Senators right now (hey did you know Arizona elected an African-American statewide?), but both would also be under a lot of pressure to try and hang on to their key seats on the commission. Felecia Rotellini ran an outstanding campaign for Attorney General this year, came very close to winning, and almost surely would have won in a year even slightly less toxic. She might be courted to run for this office if bigger names pass, but she seems more interested in challenging Tom Horne for a rematch in 2014. Andrei Cherney, who ran what I thought ran a meh campaign for Treasurer this year but most Dems in the party apparatus rave about for some reason, could be yet another possible candidate.

As for Republicans, the already mentioned John Shadegg and Jeff Flake are certainly major potential candidates. The big problem for Flake though is his support for non-nutter immigration reform and shaky position on SB1070. I think he would actually have a lot of trouble winning a primary even if he'd be one of the better general election candidates.

I'm sure that Joe Arpaio, Jan Brewer and Russell Pearce will all be seriously courted by the more nativist groups should an open seat occur. I'm not sure that any of them would pull the trigger (Arpaio is almost certainly too old to keep up with a rigorous statewide campaign, and Brewer and Pearce aren't spring chickens either), but it would definitely be very interesting to see how the NRSC responds to a candidacy by any of these gaffe-proned trio. There could be cat fud in our future!

Stronger potential candidates include Secretary of State Ken Bennett, who's popular and has the right mix of conservative enough to appease the base but sufficiently moderate in temperament to appease independents. Another possible candidate is incoming Rep. David Schweikert, who won a commanding victory in a swing district and has already been elected in Maricopa County (60% of the statewide population) as Treasurer. Huckster J.D. Hayworth could make another run, especially if tea party groups aren't satisfied with the field.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
Mary Peters
Isn't she also interested?  

[ Parent ]
There's a name I haven't heard in a while
But yes, probably. Her biggest problem would be that she has all the baggage associated with being around politics for a long time but has never gained the experience of running and winning a campaign. And while she certainly has access to a big fundraising pool, I'm not sure that many rank-and-file Republican primary voters even know who she is.

I should probably also toss outgoing Treasurer Dean Martin into this dogpile. He's been seen as a rising star in the AZGOP and if not for SB 1070 would probably be working on his transition team for the governor's office right now.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
I forgot about him
Yes, I would think he is interested too. Where does he live?I wonder if he could also run for Gifford's or Flake's seat, if he's looking to get back in office, but doesn't think he can beat Flake or Shadegg.  

[ Parent ]
AZ-03
He used to be a State Senator there. I suppose he could always carpetbag over to the 6th since he's been elected statewide. Of course, both the Speaker of the State House (Kirk Adams) and the State Senate President (Russell Pearce) live in the current AZ-06 along with a ton of other ambitious Republicans, there likely wouldn't be much oxygen left in the room for a carpetbagger from northern Phoenix in the potential race to succeed Flake.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
Question
for our number crunchers here, I'm trying to calculate the vote percentages Boxer, Brown, Fiorina, and Whitman earned in Dan Lungren's district. Do you know how would I go through that since Lungren's district only takes in parts of Sacramento and Solano counties?

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

All I know
is use the Supplemental Statement of Vote, but the one for November 2010 won't be out until April.

My blog
Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
CA-6: Lynn Woolsey considering retirement
http://blogs.sacbee.com/capito...

Rep. Lynn Woolsey, D-Petaluma, a fixture in Congress for the past 18 years, said Thursday she is considering retirement after completing her 10th term in 2012.

Woolsey, 73, said she was talking about her future now to give those vying to succeed her - in what would likely be a crowded and expensive race - a chance to make their names known to voters.

http://www.pressdemocrat.com/a...

State Assemblyman Jared Huffman has already formed an exploratory committee and say's he'll run if Woolsey doesn't.  State Senator Noreen Evans is another potential candidate.  Other possibilities are Sonoma County Supervisor Shirlee Zane and Petaluma Mayor Pam Torliatt.  The district is the North Bay (Boxer's old district) and is very Democratic.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



I wonder if she has health issues
I have noticed her name on the list of people not voting on roll calls a few times most recently on DADT.

20, male, independent, WI-07.

[ Parent ]
Oh, Peter King, you fail to surprise me.
http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpoi...
=facepalms=

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


If there was only one television camera left in the world
And Chuck Schumer and Peter King were both trying to get in front of it, who'd win their duel to the death?  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
His district is a sick place
It's not called Bavaria-on-the-Atlantic for nothing.  

[ Parent ]
Murkowski
says she will vote for cloture on a stand alone DADT bill even though the omnibus bill spectacularly went down in flames last night. So assuming if Murkowski and Collins follow up on their promise and Democrats managed to flip Manchin, we'll be able to break a filibuster.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


charlie cook using dave bradlee's application ...
trying to predict reapportionment/redistricting scenarios:

http://www.cookpolitical.com/n...


What I like:
NC:
If the state gains a 14th district, Democrats could actually stand to lose less. Republicans would be smart to settle for weakening Kissell while letting Democrats keep the rest of what they have and adding a new Republican seat, most likely somewhere between the state's two growth generators, Charlotte and the Research Triangle. One factor helping Republicans is that the heavily Democratic (and heavily gerrymandered) 1st CD in the eastern part of the state has actually lost population and will need to expand. In order to preserve its bare African-American majority, Republicans would happily stretch it into black neighborhoods in Durham and Raleigh, which would shore up the 2nd CD (Raleigh) for freshman GOP Rep. Renee Ellmers or another Republican. It would also force the 4th CD (Durham) to take add some of Miller's most Democratic precincts, freeing Republicans to create a second GOP-friendly district in the metro area.

In either scenario, Democratic survivors of 2010 Reps. Mike McIntyre (NC-07) and Heath Shuler (NC-11) are lucky to represent districts in corners of the state. Republicans would be hard-pressed to make their districts more Republican without seriously disrupting neighboring GOP districts. Republicans could conceivably move McIntyre further up the Atlantic coast into Republican-leaning Jacksonville (Onslow County), but that might undesirably force a Democratic-leaning area like Lumberton (Robeson County) into Kissell's district. And Republicans could try to get clever by removing Democratic Asheville from Shuler's district, but GOP Rep. Patrick McHenry (NC-10), who represents the only district bordering Shuler's, probably would not welcome such an addition.

SC:

However, while this is the first time Republicans have ever held exclusive control of the remap, this is also the first time a Democratic-appointed Justice Department will be overseeing preclearance of Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act, and the Obama Justice Department may deny "preclearance" based on this fact: if South Carolina gains a seventh district, it will be possible to split the 6th CD in two and draw two African-American majority districts, one based in Columbia (Clyburn's home) and one anchored by Charleston and the Low Country. Such a map would necessitate stretching Myrtle Beach into the 5th CD (which would strengthen Mulvaney but give his district an odd shape) and adding Hilton Head Island (Beaufort County) into the 1st CD.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Pawlenty now regrets retiring as Governor.
http://www.duluthnewstribune.c...

He says that if he knew the GOP would take the legislature, he would have run for re-election for sure.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Sucks for him
He was a stronger candidate than Emmer. Pawlenty is the more quiet, nose-to-the-grindstone politician. He touted his moderate credentials (this was before he decided he wanted to be President and veered sharply to the right), and stuck to his work. He is much more conservative than the state on the whole, but he wasn't as caustic as an Emmer. Emmer was one of those bomb-throwing, loud, holier-than-thou Republicans. Pawlenty very well could have won had he ran, although the factors of incumbency (especially with approval ratings under water) could have changed the race drastically one way or another.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]

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