This will make me late for work.....

Your MN-8 I think is perfect for electing a DFLer.  And even while many of those St. Cloud area precincts are blood red, they see lots of drop-off when it comes to voting for Bachmann.  You can really work the whole area if you have St. Cloud ties; it's a "metro" of maybe 100k people with a very, very small town vibe.  Love it.

I think MN-2 will elect a DFLer almost regularly.  The portions of Dakota county you added are at least 60-40 DFL.  And then you cut out Carver County which is extremely needed.  Obama definitely won your MN-2.  And maybe by a bigger margin than the current MN-3.

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by: Andrew @ Thu Dec 16, 2010 at 11:30:57 AM UTC

Oh that would be a problem then. Thanks!

I have to go right now but I'll try looking for a solution to that.

21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)

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by: JonathanMN @ Thu Dec 16, 2010 at 16:35:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Minnesota is one of the absolute

wild cards of 2010. Thankful for the state that they appear to be spared a lost seat.  I think predicting what will happen is really hard.  

The Gov is democrat and the legislative bodies are GOP. Plus the state surpreme court is heavily republican so predicting an outcome is hard.

I had two ideas-a minor jigger of sorts to help all incumbents.  

1st & 2nd  Swap Wabasha for Rice counties plus keep the other lines the same.  Both incumbents are helped a bit.

6th 7th 8th do a minor swap The 8th gives up Itasca & Koochiching counties plus rest of Beltrami to 8th.  The 8th picked up Benton plus N. part of Stearns then the 6th curls around to take what it needs to be equal in Meeker/McCleod & Sibley. Naturally you what you have to equalize out all the districts keeping urban & suburban stuff the same.

That would be some sort of compromise.  There's always a chance the state courts will just okay either plan carte blanche so a compromise could happen.

Now you couldsee things  get really strange. You could see the Northern part of the 8th (the two counties I mentioned plus St Louis-Cook-Lake) attached to the Northern part of the 7th.  Peterson is from Becker county and he is very strong in Northern part of that seat.  You would see some sort of swap of Northern & southern parts of 7th & 8th districts.  That would be out of the box thinking but its an obvious way to secure the 7th as a democratic seat and the 8th as a GOP leaning seat. Peterson will be 66 so he may be facing retirement soon as it is.

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by: rdelbov @ Thu Dec 16, 2010 at 14:01:02 PM UTC

I forgot to say

thanks for posting.  I appreciate the effort.  

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by: rdelbov @ Thu Dec 16, 2010 at 15:33:33 PM UTC

Frankly, I hate it

But, as you say, with split control over the process it's probably a realistic compromise.

Good job.

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by: emilysdad @ Thu Dec 16, 2010 at 16:26:36 PM UTC

I look forward to the rest of this series.

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by: emilysdad @ Thu Dec 16, 2010 at 16:28:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Waltz

got less then 50% against an underfunded 2nd Tier guy.  Peterson sits in a seat where Emmers won by a nice margin.  Plus there were legislative gains in both seats for the republicans in 2010.  Any sort of compromise helping them or even carving out a democrtic seat  near the Great white North might be an idea.

Here's another intersting idea-no I don't maps just ideas-what would happen if MN lost a seat.  I think the GOP would volunteer to carve up Bachman's seat.  She likely to run for US senate or President or Fox News show host.  Naturally the price of carving up that seat would be to give Anoka & Sherburne to the 8th.  Stearns and Benton to the 7th plus Wright Silby & McCleod to the 1st.  

That way Bachmann moves on to something while the GOP moves three seats towards its side.  That's almost a Monty Hall special.

On a more serious note its just hard to know what lays behind the redistricting doors in MN.

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by: rdelbov @ Thu Dec 16, 2010 at 16:54:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks!

I hope you like the other ones better. Unfortunately, they won't be too realistic given the current situation unless the DFL decides to do mid-decade redistricting.

21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)

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by: JonathanMN @ Thu Dec 16, 2010 at 19:05:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

On second thought

Is this realistic? Given the current 4D-4R split, why would the Rethugs agree to a 5D-3R map? An incumbent protection deal seems more likely.

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by: emilysdad @ Thu Dec 16, 2010 at 22:02:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dayton would be crazy to sign off on that

Walz and Peterson have already shown that they can win even in the worst possible year for Dems, the twin cities districts are bulletproof blue, and the Dems have no reason to agree to protect Cravaack (D+3 district) or Paulsen (+0). If they let it go to the courts, they will probably end up with districts much like they have now, with a good shot to knock at least Cravaack off in 2012.

41, Ind, CA-05

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by: sacman701 @ Thu Dec 16, 2010 at 23:54:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

My thoughts

Walz will hate this map and may lose. Expanding the first isn't really necessary, as it is currently above the value 1/8 the population. Expanding it into Sibley County is one of the worst things you can possibly do for Tim Walz. This seat is toss-up at best with the new Republican stronghold in there.

What a waste of Democratic votes in district 2. I know it will be a compromise map, and Kline will be protected due to his seniority and chairmanship, but if you're looking to make a bunch of 53% R districts, this is a good way to start.

I don't see the 3rd moving into Carver County, or even Anoka County for that matter. The 3rd is a Hennepin County-sans-Minneapolis map. This is one of the few truths that carried over from the 1990s district. I see the district taking up nearly all of Hennepin County outside of Minneapolis, much like it does now.

The 4th seems pretty similar to what I envision, although my idea has it suck up northern Washington County, and not Southern. Either way, McCollum is safe

The 5th is compact, as it ought to be.

6th: Safe Republican, as it is now. And it gets rid of that ugly tentacle that runs down passed Stillwater

The 7th is safe for Peterson, although probably a tinge more Republican than it's current form.

The 8th is where I am from, so I have quite an opinion on what should happen here. But sticking to your map, it seems reasonable. Unless there is a forged compromise between Dayton and the legislature, I don't see Isanti and Chisago sitting around in this district. (Cravaack lives in Chisago County, and the legislature would try to make sure his home is still in his district if they have a say). If the courts draw the maps, it'll have very similar boundaries to what it has now.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

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by: OGGoldy @ Thu Dec 16, 2010 at 19:12:38 PM UTC

Sound analysis

oops I said Waltz--its that TN Waltz for me.  Walz would rather move into Rice county then GOP leaning Sibley & McCleod.  My proposed swap would help both Kline and Walz if one gets Rice county and the other loses it.

I took a better look at MN7 this afternoon and its starkling how its really a tale of two halves.  The Northern half of the district is noticeably more blue then the Southern half.  The same holds for MN8.

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by: rdelbov @ Thu Dec 16, 2010 at 19:32:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Just some follow up

Here's the population distribution for this map with the new population estimates:

1st - The first actually needs to gain population. Maybe picking up Rice would be a better idea.

2nd - Andrew pointed out that with the addition of West St. Paul, the second becomes slightly DFL. I worked it out and it goes from 48-50 Obama-McCain to 51-49. Emmer still won this by 10% though. Maybe it could five up West St. Paul back ot the 4th and pick up Sibley istead to make Kline safer.

3rd and 5th - Both the third and fifth need to gain population and there isn't anything left in Hennepin so the third has to expand out to the surrounding counties.

4th - I wanted this to take the northern part of Washington instead but I don't the Republicans would agree to drawing Bachmann out of her district.

6th and 7th - Mostly ok

8th - Hey I'm from here too! Just curious, what would you like to see happen? I realy hope they get rid of the exurbs and Cravaack along with them.

21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)

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by: JonathanMN @ Thu Dec 16, 2010 at 19:35:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I've done my own Minnesota maps

So I can appreciate how much work and thought goes into these. I always like seeing what other people come up with.

Let me respond to your responses, if you will.

1st: I guess I was mistaken when it came to the 1st, as when I started drawing my maps, LeSeur, Rice and Goodhue counties were immediately put into the 1st, because that is prime Walz territory. I guess when the district is sans those 3 counties, it is a little bit short. That being said, those 3 counties would be a much better fit for the rural farming 1st, than an exurban Republican Stronghold.

2nd: Kline would be safe here, but he would not be happy picking up THAT much Democratic territory, as he would actually have to run for election instead of coasting. The Republican base of his district has been cut out in your map, mind you.

3rd+5th: You cut out the Anoka County portion of the district. I think extending the 5th further into Anoka County would be generally a more compact, and fair proposition that feeding the center-left Hennepin County to the bible thumpers in Carver County.

6th: mostly fine, I like the idea of a North Suburban district, plus it really screws Cravaack. Although having Bachmann's house there doesn't matter. No one where she lives votes for her, it's the rest of the district that does.

7th: Peterson will be okay here, but this is a rough district for any type of progressive. In fact, this district is by FAR the most Republican of ANY of the districts in your map (R+7, I would imagine). Wrap your head around that one!

8th: Removing the south edge of the district (exurbs), there is absolutely not Republican base here. The Republican base isn't big enough as is for Cravaack to hold on against a solid opponent in anything other than a Republican wave election. This just seals that fate.

One thing to keep in mind, courts will be drawing the lines, and they drew the current lines, so I can't imagine they will do anything too radically different.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

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by: OGGoldy @ Thu Dec 16, 2010 at 21:34:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

By the way, thanks for your analysis! n/t

21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)

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by: JonathanMN @ Thu Dec 16, 2010 at 19:39:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Assuming the map is incumbent-protection

How do you guys feel about giving Peterson all of Northern MN, running from the Iron Range to the ND border and taking in his hometown? That would be a safe DFL seat free of the reddening exurbs. Tony Sertich could win it when Peterson retires.

In exchange, Cravaack would get a safe R seat that meanders from Chisago westward, taking in a lot of reddish farm counties that had been in Peterson's 7th.

I've heard on here before that putting NW Minnesota in with the Iron Range violates tradition, but would DFLers be willing to set tradition aside to shore up their incumbents?

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

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by: MassGOP @ Thu Dec 16, 2010 at 22:15:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Peterson is way to conservative for Iron Range....

... DFLers. Peterson's vote (pre Obama compromise) against raising income taxes for those making $250,000 (or even $1,000,000) will not play well at all on the populist Iron Range. If a Northern tier district is drawn (which Republicans would love) I would not be surprised to see a credible primary challenge to Peterson.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

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by: MinnesotaMike @ Thu Dec 16, 2010 at 22:31:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think that

is less likely then a modest keep roughly the same seats plan but it certainly work.  Under that type of plan MN1 would also be  made safe for Walz with a swap for Rice & maybe another county.

You might see some sort of 4-4 plan locked into place for 10 years.  MN would be flyover country for congressional  races except maybe for open seat situations.

Would the GOP or democrats jump on that idea.  The republicans showed in 2010 that in MN they could be competitive in 6/8 seats. They won 4 Walz won with  50% and Peterson's seat has long been viewed as winnable for them.  I think the MN GOP would jump on itthe National Democrats would not want it.  I think local democrats will be 50-50 on it.  

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by: rdelbov @ Thu Dec 16, 2010 at 22:35:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

ABSOLUTELY NOT

Terrible idea. I've gone on tirades here about that before. Western MN is nothing like NE Minnesota. It won't be an incumbant protection map either. The courts are gonna draw it, and they took no consideration of incumbents when they drew it last time. Minnesota is not sustainable at 4-4 for the Republicans unless you draw some pretty fucked up lines and put Minneapolis/St. Paul together. It's just got too many Dems spread out too far. Republicans should pray for a district map like this, here they have a shot at 5, but for sure 3.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

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by: OGGoldy @ Thu Dec 16, 2010 at 23:10:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

On a side note

Tradition here is more important than partisan maps. Even the courts sort of respected tradition when they drew the current map.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

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by: OGGoldy @ Thu Dec 16, 2010 at 23:13:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Tradition that won't be violated by any map:

Here is a rough list

The 4th is anchored by St. Paul
The 5th is anchored by Minneapolis
The 3rd is entirely within Hennepin County
The 8th gets it's own district, only taking up areas for population.

Beyond that, I truly believe that there will be no compromise by the Republicans and Dayton, so this is going to the courts. Although, The republican margins are not big, at all, and a solid chunk of the Senate came from DFL territory (Only 12 of the Republican senators are incumbents currently). If they want to make a splash, they will try to go all Tom Emmer and Michele Bachmann, and get thrashed in 2012. Or they could try and work with the DFL and get things done. and hope that in a presidential year, they can win these formerly blue districts (every legislator is up for election again in 2012) to retain their slim majorities)

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

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by: OGGoldy @ Thu Dec 16, 2010 at 23:18:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Tradition that won't be violated by any map:

Here is a rough list

The 4th is anchored by St. Paul
The 5th is anchored by Minneapolis
The 3rd is entirely within Hennepin County
The 8th gets it's own district, only taking up areas for population.

Beyond that, I truly believe that there will be no compromise by the Republicans and Dayton, so this is going to the courts. Although, The republican margins are not big, at all, and a solid chunk of the Senate came from DFL territory (Only 12 of the Republican senators are incumbents currently). If they want to make a splash, they will try to go all Tom Emmer and Michele Bachmann, and get thrashed in 2012. Or they could try and work with the DFL and get things done. and hope that in a presidential year, they can win these formerly blue districts (every legislator is up for election again in 2012) to retain their slim majorities)

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

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by: OGGoldy @ Thu Dec 16, 2010 at 23:18:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

OK, thanks

If you do a north tier map--which is clearly a non-starter--you can lock in on 4/4 pretty easily without combining the Twin Cities. The 1st would be made safe for Walz, the 4th and 5th stay the same, and the 8th is northern MN. On the GOP side, the 2nd, 3rd, and 6th stay more or less the same, and the 8th is the whole middle part of the state.

That plan would actually still favor the Democrats, because all four of their seats would be safe, while when open, the 3rd would be a tossup and Democrats would have a shot in the 2nd as well.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

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by: MassGOP @ Fri Dec 17, 2010 at 01:28:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dayton wouldn't sign off on that.

Nor should he consider it. The best Republicans can do (or have done) in Minnesota is 4 districts. Democrats can, and have held 6-2. a 4-4 map would be a wet dream for Republicans, who squeaked by with that margin in a huge wave election this year. The courts aren't going to draw a map like that, they will do a very similar map to what they have now, since it'll go down the same way it did 10 years ago.

Let me put it this way, Minnesota won't have a solid 4-4 map any more than Iowa will have a Democratic 3-1 map. Courts just don't draw maps that way.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

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by: OGGoldy @ Fri Dec 17, 2010 at 01:55:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Speaking of the courts

What does the court look like? Dayton will be Minnesota's first DFL Governor in 20 years, so I assume that Rethugs dominate the bench.

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by: emilysdad @ Fri Dec 17, 2010 at 04:03:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It is mostly Republican

But they ruled unanimously against Coleman and Emmer at every juncture in 2008-2010. They are not really out there conservatives, in fact after former Chief Justice Magnuson resigned to return to previous practice, the court shifted ever so slightly to the left.

But the breakdown is as such:

Page, Elected without being appointed (first time in forever that happened here) Unabashedly liberal, and an NFL hall-of-famer to boot.

P. Anderson, an old school liberal Republican appointed by Arne Carlson, the second most liberal justice on the court.

Meyer, a Jesse Ventura appointee. She rounds out the liberal wing of the court.

G. Anderson, Deitzen, and Stras are all Pawlenty appointees. They are pretty standard Republican judges, not extremists  in the mold of Alito or Thomas.

That being said the Supreme Court doesn;t draw the maps, although they are related. An independent court partially composed of justices is entrusted with that job.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

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by: OGGoldy @ Fri Dec 17, 2010 at 05:27:08 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

As I said

there is scenerio A & B.

One is mild swap of territory that perserves all the seats.  I little here-a litte there.

Two-maybe something wild like a great white north seat

I don't think the courts will do anything but a scenerio 1--perhaps everyone can agree on a scenerio one type plan.

The odds on scenerio two with a 4-4 plan.  Maybe 10% but it will certainly be legislative and not judicial.  

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by: rdelbov @ Fri Dec 17, 2010 at 03:34:47 AM UTC