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SSP Daily Digest: 12/15

by: Crisitunity

Wed Dec 15, 2010 at 3:01 PM EST


MO-Sen: Ed Martin, who lost narrowly in MO-03, has kept spamming me (and presumably everybody else who writes about politics) with press releases vaguely hinting at voter fraud. It's seeming like maybe there's something more there to it than just garden-variety sore-loserism; there's growing buzz that he's trying to stay top-of-mind for a possible run for the GOP Senate nomination. Now, you might be saying, that's a whole lot of hubris for a guy who couldn't even win a House seat to go up against Sarah Steelman and possibly Jim Talent, but Martin might be able to grab the tea party mantle considering that the local 'baggers are quite adamant that they aren't as enamored with her as the national-level ones are. Martin is apparently also considering another run for the House; part of his decision will be what happens with redistricting, as MO-03 may be on the chopping block, between St. Louis-area depopulation and Republican legislative control.

MT-Sen: Trying to decipher Rep. Denny Rehberg's intentions, about a possible run against freshman Dem Jon Tester? David Catanese is actually picking through his Christmas card to read the tea leaves. Rehberg tells his supporters (and extended family members) that he's "not taking anything off the table" in terms of his next step, which is interesting, as it may mean he's thinking about the open seat gubernatorial race too.

NE-Sen: Now here's a blast from the past: ex-Gov. Kay Orr is so old-school that she was actually defeated for Governor by Ben Nelson, way back in 1990. Despite 20 years out of the political scene, her name is being floated as a possibility for the GOP Senate primary for the right to take on Nelson in 2012. Orr herself says she's undecided, but sounds leaning against it. The Fix also seems to think that state Treasurer (and another long-ago loser to Nelson, although at least this time in a Senate race) Don Stenberg is likely to run, which would force a primary against AG Jon Bruning.

PA-Sen: There are two different overviews of the Pennsylvania situation today; one is from Alex Roarty at National Journal (and unfortunately is behind a paywall, so I'll give you the gist). The one new name that surfaces in it is GOP Rep. Tim Murphy (from PA-18 in the Pittsburgh-suburbs); while he isn't pushing forward on it, he's shown more behind-the-scenes interest in it than Charlie Dent or Jim Gerlach, both of whom have gotten more touting but seem content with their cushy new committee posts. He also mentions that state Sen. Kim Ward is now leaning against, and confirms that ex-Gov. Mark Schweiker is at the top of the GOP's wish list but probably a pipe dream. A Philadelphia Magazine article tries to handicap the GOP field, with absolutely nobody on the first tier, Gerlach alone on the second tier, and state Sen. Jake Corman (and Ward) comprising the third tier.

VA-Sen: Newsmax has an interview with new right-wing hero Ken Cuccinelli, who despite his new HCR-related celebrity is taking the opportunity to make clear that he isn't running for Senate in 2012 (which would remove George Allen's main impediment for the GOP nomination). He wouldn't rule out running for Governor in 2013, though. (I wouldn't link to Newsmax if you paid me to, so you'll have to take my word for it.)

IN-Gov: Rep. Joe Donnelly is another option for Dems for Indiana Governor, although a run by Donnelly would require him giving up his seat. What if the GOP decides to get really aggressive in gerrymandering and build a nightmare seat for him (for instance, creating a dumbbell-shaped district linking Gary and his town of South Bend, forcing him to run against Lake County-based Pete Visclosky or else to move to a mostly rural red district)? South Bend's Dem party chair is now saying that Donnelly would look at a statewide race in the event that the House map is too unfavorable.

FL-22: I think I'm going to greatly enjoy Allen West's two years in the House, if only because he has the skill of digging his own hole deeper every time he opens his mouth. Fresh off the outrageous suggestion that the government should "censor" mainstream media outlets that publish information obtained via WikiLeaks (and apparently having had someone explain First Amendment jurisprudence carefully to him), now he's claiming that he was misinterpreted, and that he actually said "censure" instead.

IL-17: Now here's a fool's errand: declaring your intention to run for a district that's about to vaporize. Soon-to-be-ex-Rep. Phil Hare has already expressed his interest in a rematch with Bobby Schilling, but he may have some company. Both former Rock Island mayor Mark Schweibert and state Rep. Mike Boland said they're interested in running in the Dem primary, too. (Hare, former aide to Lane Evans, was picked over Schweibert by local party heads to be the 2006 nominee after Evans dropped out of the race post-primary.) The 17th seems like the likeliest district on the Illinois chopping block, though, seeing as how most of the state's population loss has been Downstate and there's not much point for the Dem-held legislature to preserve a Democratic vote sink if it's not even going to elect a Democrat.

KS-??: Despite his various Sherman-esque statements when he first announced he wouldn't run for a full term as Governor, outgoing Dem Gov. Mark Parkinson is saying in an exit interview that he won't rule out running for something in the future. (In the meantime, he's heading to DC to rule the nursing home trade association.) It's unclear what he'd run for, though... KS-03 is certainly a possibility, as it's the most Dem-friendly part of the state and Parkinson is an Olathe resident.

NY-10: This may be taking tea leaf reading a step too far here, but the subtext to Ed Towns' surprising decision not to seek the ranking member position on the Oversight committee (and back Carolyn Maloney for it) may be that he's about to wind down his entirely unremarkable decades-long House tenure. Towns will be 78 in 2012.

KY-AG: It looks like Jack Conway is getting some GOP opposition after all, although not from as serious a threat as outgoing SoS Trey Grayson. Todd P'Pool, the state attorney for planet Vulcan Hopkins County (population 46K) has announced that he will challenge Conway in a battle to the death for the right to mate with T'Pring the 2011 election. Cue the epic fight music!

OR-St. Sen.: Who woulda thunk that the Oregon state Senate would be one of the last question marks to get resolved this year? The GOP-funded recount in SD-3, where Dem Alan Bates narrowly won, and the retaliatory Dem-funded recount in the race where Martha Schrader narrowly lost (she had been appointed to fill the seat vacated by her husband, now-Rep. Kurt Schrader), are over, with the numbers barely budging at all. The Dems retain a 16-14 majority.

TX-St. House: Two more party switchers to report, this time in the Texas state House, where Dems had actually entertained the notion of flipping the body a while ago and instead are now facing the wrong end of a supermajority. Aaron Pena and Allan Ritter have both announced that they're joining the GOP, despite their blue districts (in fact, Pena's Hidalgo County district went over 70% for Obama), apparently for the same rationale that the Georgia party-switchers are giving: deep in the minority, it's the only way for them to have any effectiveness in the capitol.

Mayors: There's a new Chicago mayoral poll out, where again the main question seems to be whether Rahm Emanuel can win outright without a runoff. That's not looking likely, given the crowded field, although he still has a substantial lead in the new Tribune/WGN poll, at 32%. Gery Chico and Danny Davis are at 9, James Meeks is at 7, Carol Mosely Braun is at 6, Miguel del Valle is at 3, and Roland Burris is at 2, leaving 30 undecided. Emanuel leads among both blacks (with 19%) and Hispanics (27%).

One other mayoral race (or "situation," really) that's heating up is in San Francisco, where there's a regularly scheduled 2011 election but also a looming vacancy with Gavin Newsom about to become Lt. Governor. The Board of Supervisors will have to choose an interim mayor to serve out those 11 months, and they'll have to choose between one of their own who may be considering a November run, or an elder-statesman placekeeper. However, the Board is split any number of ways, and if there's nobody who gets 6 of its 11 votes, the Board's President, David Chiu, becomes acting mayor. The only person who seems in position to pick up at least six votes would be state Assemblyman Tom Ammiano.

Census: All manner of data analysis is pouring forth, in the wake of yesterday's massive data dump of the Census Bureau's five-year ACS estimates (which is where you're going to find a lot of the information that used to be on the "long form"). Perhaps most amazingly of all is a new mapping tool from the New York Times, which lets you zoom in or out from the state level to the block level anywhere in the country to look at race and foreign-born status. (Set aside a few hours to explore this one.) Also worth reading are new articles on changes in racial segregation (in major decline in certain metro areas, especially Atlanta and Miami, which can have major VRA implications in terms of it being harder to cobble together districts that have a majority of any particular group) and in rural populations (declining rapidly, as you might imagine).

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 12/15
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Parkinson ought to run in KS-03
He had approval ratings over 50 during his time as governor.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


He's probably waiting to see
Waiting to see how the Republicans (who've got the trifecta and all 4 seats already) shift the districts. With three of them freshmen (the delegation's dean is 2nd-termer Lynn Jenkins) and three of the seats at least winnable for Democrats already, it's hard to tell how things will shake out exactly

Another option (because 2012 is pretty close for him to be moving to DC to take a job and then come back and run) is that he runs against Sam Brownback for governor (who, based on the first steps he's taking, may get very unpopular very quickly) in 2014. And if he got Sebelius to run for the potentially-open Senate seat that year (if then-80-year-old Pat Roberts retires), they could have a serious multiplier effect and help sweep each other into office.  ....well, a man can dream, can't he?

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
brownback
what's he doing that making him so unpopular?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
What makes
them winnable for Democrats?

As far as you dreaming, maybe you are. I refuse to give up on the idea of seeing a result at 3:00 AM flashed across my screen that says, "With 93 percent of the precincts reporting, we are prepared to announce that John Sharp will win the Senate seat in Texas, 51-49." But making those dreams, such as they are, come true is possible, even if it takes an effort that lasts for several cycles. I have no idea if three of the four House seats in Kansas are winnable for Democrats--that is why I ask you--but if they aren't completely hopeless, I'd like to try to make our jobs far easier, over the short- and long-term, by investing in the state. That is why I am so eager to have the Obama campaign throw some money into the state if conditions are favorable to the Democrats in 2012. I doubt he'd win it, but perhaps he could help build the party so that we aren't leaving seats on the table.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Todd P'Pool...
For real? Damn.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

The
twitter status is funnier.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
P'Pool???
I've never in my life heard a name like that.  What culture is it from?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
It's derived from the name Pettypool
For some reason, a few decedents of the Pettypool surname line opted to change the spelling to P'Pool. Looks a lot like a joke name.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
For those interested
here's a link talking about the origins of the name.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

[ Parent ]
WI-Prez: Obama at 47/46 approval, up 4, 6, 9, 14 over Mitt, Huck, Newt, Palin
Senate news:
Senate passes tax cuts/UI benefits 81-19, going to House for concurrence. http://senate.gov/legislative/...

Senate votes 66-32 to enter Executive Session to consider START. http://senate.gov/legislative/...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Looks like giving them the tax bill
is going to pay off with START and DADT at least then.

[ Parent ]
Kyl Presser
Makes it looks lke they will block START in Lame Duck session. I still don't believe DADT can get 60 in the Senate, but I think there might be a few GOP votes they'll let go in order to get this passed. I think the leadership in the GOP would LOVE to see DADT pass to rob the Dems of an issue while infuriating the GOP religious base (who seem a bit sullen these days with all the fiscal and not religious conservatism getting all the press.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
That presser was before this vote, I believe.
Kyl voted against this motion to open debate of START, but there still was enough defections to get us to 66 votes in support of the motion.  And one of those not present was Begich, so if we hold onto all of these defections, we can get 67 votes to ratify the treaty.

Kyl can claim that he can stop it, but it's already started as evidenced by the vote on this motion.  He's nothing but hot air.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Reid threatened maximize the Senate schedule
by making sure they were in session as long as possible if the GOP kept dragging their feet.  He got criticized for this, but I think this tough talk is what it took to get this vote to happen in the first place.  The Majority Leader sets the calendar and if the GOP tries to boycott this, the Dems will still have a quorum even if 7 members of their ranks go home and can pass anything they want that's being held up.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Here's some confidence-boosting links:
http://thinkprogress.org/2010/...
http://twitter.com/ArmsControl...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Just how
much more can the religious base of the Republican party be turned out?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Detroid: Kwame Kilpatrick indicted by feds!
http://www.freep.com/article/2...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


So was his father...
who is Rep Kilpatick's ex-husband.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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[ Parent ]
Various
MT-Sen - I'm far more pessimistic for Tester than most and think he's in deep trouble vs Rehberg or Hill. I'd bet on Rehberg getting right of first refusal and Hill running for whichever is left.

MO-Sen - What's his nuts will have no house race since I'm pretty sure MO-3 is going bye-bye, but I think the fuss over Steelman not being teaparty enough is much ado about nothing and (assuming Talent doesn't run) she gets a walk through the primary

NE-Sen - Kay Orr, I can't take this seriously. In fact I think Stenberg is going to wait and run for Gov when Heineman retires and Bruning gets a clean shot at putting Nelson out of our misery

IN-Gov - I can't imagine a scenario where Donnelly has a district to run in for '12, but does he run for Gov or take a shot at Lugar if there is a serious primary challenger?

VA-Sen - Tietack and I have beaten THAT horse to death and beyond. Personally I think Cooch thinks he'll be US AG in the next GOP administration, and I'm not sure I'd bet against it.

FL-22 - can we put west and Grayson in a bag and throw it in the river? Seriously two guys hell bent on making poltics completely unpaletable for 90% of the electorate.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


So:
You think MO-03 is going to be gone after redistricting, huh? What makes you think that? What's going on over there in that particular district?

[ Parent ]
I don't draw maps, but....
I believe that MO is predicted to lose a district.  The GOP controls both houses of the legislature, but do not hold a super-majority needed to pass a gerrymandered map against the objections of Dem Gov. Nixon.  However, Nixon would likely accept cutting up Carnahan's district and not harming the 2 Dem districts on opposite sides of the state.  There's no way Nixon would sign onto a blatantly gerrymandered map and there's no way the GOP legislature would draw a map that cuts out a GOPer or creates 2 Dem districts and a swing district.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
MO-3
I've played with this one a lot on Dave's redistricting tool and MO-1 needs to add a lot of population, this really cuts the heart out of Carnahan's district (he basically tied in St. Louis county and lost Jefferson county) so there likely is no way for Clay & Carnahan to survive, the AA St Reps have basically signalled they'll vote with the GOP on redistricting in order to maintain Cleaver & Clay's districts, which leaves Carnahan out in the cold. I think his best chance is if the GOP cuts a deal with Nixon to throw Carnahan & Akin in the same district, but I doubt this - Akin is about to become chairman of the Seapower subcommittee (which controls spending for things like Boeing's F-18 Superhornet, which happens to be manufactured in St. Louis - you can actually see the plant from Lambert airport, kinda cool for fighter jock fans like me), thus I think Akin eats up most of St. Louis county (except the AA precincts) and keep enough of St. Charles County (which is growning very fast and is for now very heavily Republican) to ensure his district stays safely GOP.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Can the GOP
really carve out 6/8 safe districts in a state that is almost 50/50 (although really 47/53)?  This seems to be quite a stretch.  Do any of these districts become endangered in a bad environment for the GOP?

[ Parent ]
They can
because most of the Dems are clustered in a St Lois which can easily have have D-20 AA majority districts. So the Dem votes get packed into a few districts giving the GOP the chance to carve out 6/8 safe districts in a state that is almost 50/50.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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[ Parent ]
IL-17
I still dont really get why it'd be axed with a Dem legislature and Dem Governor.  It, like many other districts, are Democratic districts that didnt vote that way in 2010.  

It might depend on your definition of "axed"
The current 17th is roughly based in the the Quad Cities area. And I'm sure that the new plan will put the Quad Cities area into a district that's designed to go Democratic. It probably won't look anything like the current district, though.

If recent Illinois D-gerrymander diaries are indicative, the new 17th will be based in the Quad Cities and Peoria (City). Then it will need to reach for some other pocket of Democratic voters, like LaSalle County or Rockford. That's pretty different from the current 17th that winds its way down the Mississippi, then up into central Springfield and over to Decatur.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.


[ Parent ]
I think it's because
in post-2000 redistricting, IL-17 was designed to be a Dem vote sink.  Remember that Hastert helped direct redistricting that year.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
There's no reason to lose the district
It was designed as a Dem vote sink post-2000, but spreading those voters out between say the 16th and 18th would just lead to Shock and Manzullo winning by slightly smaller margins.

Redistricting it (as noted above) to lose the worst areas (Hancock, Adams, and south McDonough counties) and pick up Democratic areas in Peoria, Mason, LaSalle, and Putnam counties.  Everyone who's expressed interest will live or represent part of the district (The mayor of Rock Island, the state rep from Rock Island, and the current Rep who lives in Rock Island).

We're going to lose a downstate district, but it's going to be 15, 18 or 19.

IL-17 (Home) IL-10 (Born and raised) IL-8 (Learned the ropes)


[ Parent ]
KY-AG
All I can say is "lol".

20, Democrat, KY-01

I'll bet
you breathed a big sigh of relief when SoS Greyson opted not to run for A-G (or anything else) next year after previously sounding like he was aiming for it.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
For sure.
Grayson may have gotten blasted in the GOP primary but he's surely still got lots of appeal statewide.

P'Pool is a dunce who's not even very popular in Hopkins County (and he had a legitimate Dem challenger this year). If he's the best Republicans can find...lol.

20, Democrat, KY-01


[ Parent ]
Thank
Gosh Grayson didn't run. I worry that this thing with Conway's brother will hurt him.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
TX-HOUSE Correction
Ritter's district is historically D from East Texas. It isn't any longer. This is a red district now, and Ritter would have lost had he been opposed this year. He switched cause the democratic party of East Texas is dead and he knew in 2012, with opposition, or worse lines, he would not be re-elected.

Pena's rationale: What's best for Aaron Pena? This is a guy who fought for fmr. Speaker Craddick and holds no allegiance to the democratic party. We're better without him, especially since he won't be returning in 2012, whether it's by GOP primary or a dem will defeat him.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


Pena's explanation for defecting
sounded like it was written by the TXGOP party chairman and memorized by him.  He said that the Dems lost big in Texas because they are "anti-gun", "too much in favor of abortion", and "anti-business."

Ritter is understandable (he voted for Speaker Craddick, for pete's sake and lives in a conservative district).  Pena is self-serving.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Exactly
I understand Ritter, and I send him on his way, understanding, but disappointed.

Pena, I am giving the finger saying "good riddance," we didn't want you anyways (as evidenced by his long list of primary challenges)

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
In some sad news on mayors...
the mayor of Springfield, IL, was killed from a self-inflicted gunshot wound.  The only thing police won't say is if it was suicide or an accidental shooting.

The mayor of Illinois' capital city died of what appears to be a self-inflicted gunshot wound in his home the same day he was to have appeared in court for a hearing involving his handling of a relative's estate, a coroner announced Wednesday.

Sangamon County Coroner Susan Boone said in a statement that an autopsy revealed that 53-year-old Timothy Davlin died Tuesday morning after a close-range gunshot wound to the chest. His body was found by Springfield officers responding to a 911 call.

Boone's statement did not indicate whether the two-term Democrat's death has been ruled a suicide or accidental. Boone told The Associated Press she would hold an inquest sometime after the first of the year, leaving it up to that jury to determine whether the shooting was a suicide or something else, including a gun accidentally discharging.

Davlin did have some financial issues, though we'll probably never know for sure if that had a role in this.

As for what the law says must happen now...

An alderman, Frank Kunz, is mayor pro tem. City law requires that a new mayor be selected within 60 days.


Tom Ammiano...
played himself (even though he's a good 30 years older) in the movie Milk.  You can see him in the scene when John Briggs announces Prop. 6, and Ammiano's the guy standing next to Harvey Milk who yells at Briggs that Briggs wants to take his teacher's job away.

This is true.  Ammiano was a teacher at the time who would've been fired under Prop. 6, and that started his foray into politics.  What a long and winding path it would be if Ammiano found himself as mayor of San Francisco after all these years.


Ammiano has said he doesn't want the job
http://blogs.sfweekly.com/thes...

He hasn't been Sherman-esque but it seems clear he's not looking for an appointment.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
roll call on House DADT vote
is here. 15 Dems voted no, 15 Republicans voted yes. The "no" Democrats are mostly southern and predictable, but also included Critz.

The "yes" Republicans are also mostly predictable: Biggert, Bono Mack, Castle, Reichert, etc. I was surprised to see Dreier and Flake in they yes column, though.


Breaking news
Artur Davis is still an ass.

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
I just don't get...
Davis at all...I say good riddance to him. NEXT!! I guess he thinks that he will run for some statewide office in AL again.  Good Effing Luck W/ That!!!

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...


[ Parent ]
He's probably going to
spend the rest of his life searching for that missing "h" in his first name.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
heh


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
That's breaking news?
Well...I guess it is, for some.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
In the same vein
Francisco Franco is still dead.

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
why?
flake's a libertarian (for the most part), and dreier's gay

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

[ Parent ]
Wait Dreier is gay?
I haven't heard that, is that true or just a joke because I can't tell

[ Parent ]
There are a lot of rumors that he's gay but he's never come out


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Here's a...
pretty good summary of those rumors, courtesy of Wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D...

Male, 23, NJ-12


[ Parent ]
The raw story rumor mill on Dreier
http://rawstory.com/news/2005/...

John Boehner was elected House Majority Leader in '06 in his place.....

California congressman David Dreier (R-CA) was passed over to replace House Majority Leader Tom DeLay in part because of questions about his sexuality, a congressman and several reporters told RAW STORY this week.

Would Dreier have been the first gay Speaker?

Responding to reports that Dreier was nixed because he was a moderate, openly gay congressman Barney Frank (D-MA) remarked, Yes, in the sense that I marched in the moderate pride parade last summer and went to a moderate bar.

RAW STORY revealed that Dreier was gay and that he had lived with his male chief of staff, with whom he had traveled to dozens of countries at government expense. The story was later broadened by LA Weekly. Reports Dreier had lived with his male chief of staff were first floated by blogACTIVE.com.



[ Parent ]
I heard
 There was a girl who dated him (I forgot her name but I think she was related to Reagan.) After the date, she was asked how it went. She said, "Dreier is gay."  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
It was Doro Bush, the sister of Dubya & Jeb.


[ Parent ]
Hey! Just because he's a 58-year old lifelong bachelor


[ Parent ]
Flake
Flake is a decent guy. Note that he's Mormon.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Lincoln Diaz-Balart, Todd Platts and Jeff Flake
stood out to me the most. I guess since Diaz-Balart's on his way out he decided to vote his conscious. Or maybe Ileana got to him? Todd Platts also seems to be coasting; I could see this next term being his last.

Yes, as others have noted, Jeff Flake calls himself a libertarian, but he usually focuses most of his energies on economic libertarianism and has some not-terribly libertarian views on social issues like abortion and other gay rights. Good on him for joining the 21st Century.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
Flake is the last maverick of AZ.
Not just in this, but in general.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
More surprising Rep "aye"
John Campbell (R-CA). This guy is a douche before it was cool. But he did vote for Cash for Clunkers (He was a auto salesman or something like that, so i guess it makes sense). Good for him, for whatever the reason he has. So called "libertarian" Dana Rohrbacker voted against.

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.

[ Parent ]
Campbell surprised me too, especially considering he's a birther
Most of the other Republicans had been known for their moderate stances in some way or another (Biggert and Ros-Lehtinen in particular on gay rights issues), but he's never been in that group. But maybe he realizes this is the better side to be on, especially in California? Or maybe he's just voting his conscience? Either way, good for him.

Another surprise for me is Mario Diaz-Balart on the no side. The three Cuban Republicans tend to vote as a block, but MDB was the outlier here.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
I
don't suppose he has a taste for statewide still. That would be fool hearty to the max. But he came fairly close for LG. He would have no shot of course. More than likely your probably right, he voted the way he felt.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Very weird indeed.
I also thought the Cuban Republicans were on the same page for gay rights issues. Even Mario voted against the Federal Marriage Amendment.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
That's a pleasant surprise.
I guess since his district contains the gay enclave of Laguna Beach and only very narrowly voted for Prop 8, maybe he actually gasp tried to think of what his constituents wanted?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Jim
Matheson is kind of surprising. Good for him.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I'd like to think...
that's his UCLA pedigree (Matheson got his MBA here) rubbing off on him.  :-)

[ Parent ]
WI-Sen
I asked this yesterday, but didn't get many replies and was wondering if anyone had any real answers.  How come Tammy Baldwin isn't really being discussed for Kohl's Senate seat should he retire?  I always thought she was going to jump on whichever seat was up first.

Male, 23, NJ-12

well 1) see above
Not sure how well a lesbian would do statewide.Plus she's really far left , to far for statewide office in  Wisconsin probably

[ Parent ]
Allen West
I'm willing to take him at his word that he meant to say 'censure' instead of 'censor', but even still yes that would be a violation of the First Amendment. I do believe, however, that many on the left claim that this gentleman would be the right's Alan Grayson. Looks like he might be proving that point.

This guy seriously needs a professional politcal handler as his chief of staff to keep him from getting into further trouble.


yet
he almost hired that crazy kaufman lady

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

[ Parent ]
OH-Sen: Jim Jordan "Leaning Heavily Against" Running
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...
I guess this means its Taylor?  

Oh
dear. Which Congressman does the GOP controlled legislature get to vaporize now without making a dummymander? And Taylor might work. DeWine was Voinovich's lieutenant governor before running for the senate in 1994. (Ironically they both would serve together again in 1998.) Though I heard from you and others she's not a good fundraiser, though hopefully she's good enough of a fundraiser that she doesn't turn into the next Lee Fisher or Elaine Marshall fundraising wise.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
DeWine went from Congress to Lt. Gov. in 1990
At the time, a Congressman made something like $135,000 and Lt. Gov. paid $53,000. I thought, "How the fuck can somebody with eight kids take that kind of pay cut?" Then I learned he was a millionaire.

[ Parent ]
Two words to answer that question
Jean. Schmidt.

The GOP has to sacrifice one seat, and she is by far the weakest link in the delegation. She'll be put in with Boehner and her district will be used to help Turner, Chabot, Austria, and Johnson.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
Kinda risky
Do they really want to force someone out who might want to stay in elective office, and either A) Launch a primary challenge to Boehnor, or B) run for senate, and fuck up a good pickup opportunity?  

[ Parent ]
If Boehner can't beat Jean Schmidt
Why would any Republican want him as Speaker of the House? Although I do see Schmidt for Senate as a possible disastrous result (for the GOP) if they eliminate her district.

There really is no good solution with OH-02. Shore it up or keep it as is and you're wasting votes that could help the swing districts; loosen it up to help Chabot and you risk losing it to the Democrats, if only for 2 years; and eliminate it and pray that Schmidt doesn't screw everything else up.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
He would easily beat her
It would just be embarrassing that our Speaker is being seriously challenged.  

[ Parent ]
She'd
be delusional to try to primary Boehner if she's thrown into his district. Then again it takes a few marbles loose up there to call a Vietnam Veteran a coward on the house floor.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Exactly
Why I could totally see her primarying Boehner.  

[ Parent ]
She wasn't
As an auditor candidate. Some OH Republicans believe Kasich picked her to save the state GOP from having to spend big to hold the auditor's seat, since she was being outraised. I think that, if the field was cleared for her though, the NRSC, Kasich, and Portman could help her with fundraising.  

[ Parent ]
Rove's
group can help to! He can soften up Sherrod Brown with plenty of attack ads during the summer while Taylor builds up her war chest just like how the DSCC aired a plethora of attack ads against Gordon Smith back in 2008 during the summer until Merkley could go on the air. Ughh just thinking about that makes me realize Democratic senators are probably going to have a mountain load of attack ads dumped on them during the summer of 2012.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
My hunch is Steve Latourette will pass too
I think Mary Taylor will run for this, but, should she opt not to, it wouldn't floor me if Mike DeWine opted to pull the trigger. He's really not their strongest candidate at all, but the PPP #s suggest the negative feelings toward him in '06 have largely evaporated. I think his AG win might well keep Cornyn & Co. content on him as their nominee, though they really shouldn't be - he and Strickland would've lost in an election year.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
**he and Kasich would've lost in an election year


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
She will be a tough candidate...
...for many reasons.  However, she's going to have Kasich stench all over her by 2012.  He's got a lot of work to do to repair his horrid incoming approval numbers, and right now he's just digging a deeper hole.

Kasich is also nominating her for the same "economic development" assignment that Fisher had.  That's a big risk--not a lot of time to improve on a job situation that is mostly structural in this state (and isn't going to improve quickly).


[ Parent ]
What's he
doing to piss off so many people at this point in the game?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Just being himself... ;-)
For example, last week he told the policemen to screw it, he was going to attack their benefits and pensions. Messing with cops generally does not go over very well.

His first words as governor were, "Get on the bus, or we're going to run you over."  Nice...  People didn't like that remark, either...

Kasich should have moved to NJ where they like that kind of stuff.  Ohio prefers nice guys.


[ Parent ]
I'm not saying
that I want a lot of people to suffer, which is probably a likely if unfortunate by product of some of these guys winning, but I almost want them to overstep their bounds by completely misinterpreting their supposed mandates, particularly at the national level. If these idiots decide to hold hearings about the "fraud" of global warming science as if that is the most pressing concern the nation faces, it's probably bound to backfire, and quickly, which will only help us.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
An LOLWUT moment:
Last week, George Allen criticized Webb for constantly "negating" Mark Warner's vote in the Senate.  

http://www.politifact.com/virg...

Not only is it not true, it's confusing coming from George Allen.  Is he implying that as Senator, Allen would vote in lockstep with Mark Warner?  It really makes you wonder.  Or is Allen playing the multi-dimensional game and is trying to drive a wedge in Webb's support base?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Sounds to me like a poorly thought out scheme to try to use Warner's popularity against Webb
i.e. "I like Mark Warner, so Mark Warner is probably voting in a way I like, so why isn't Jim Webb also voting like him?"

It's not a very good plan. But George Allen isn't a very good politician.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09


[ Parent ]
well, that tactic is just
laaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaame.  that's so easily and laughably refutable that it makes me question his experience and quality as a candidate.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Fun fact
George Allen started out at UCLA, while Jim Webb started out at USC (the Trojans, not the South Carolina Gamecocks).  Then they both transferred out; George Allen to Virginia, Jim Webb to the Naval Academy.

[ Parent ]
Anyone else find it funny
That the two schools named USC, ones mascot is a condom brand, and the other one is named Gamecock?  

[ Parent ]
RNC race: Norm Coleman won't run, won't endorse Steele.
http://www.rollcall.com/news/N...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


a party switch the other way
Way down in the weeds, this county official switches from the GOP to the Dems.  His reason seems to be that the GOP is not united enough?

http://www.timesleader.com/new...

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7


Luzerne Co, PA.
home to ~325,000 people

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I'll take anything.


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
very weird though
The county mandates that there is minority party representation and apparently the elections are structured so there has to be at least 1 Republican and 1 Democrat?  But there are only 3 CCs?  And now it's 3-0 Democrat.  Sounds like the whole process is ripe for dirty pool.

[ Parent ]
I believe that's how it works in all counties in Pennsylvania.


[ Parent ]
Oh, I see.
Urban said he had been thinking about changing his registration for a long time but made up his mind when he encountered "double dealing" in his political party during his recent campaign for state Senator against Democrat John Yudichak. Yudichak won.

Urban said one of the Republican district chairs and others openly campaigned for Yudichak. Campaign workers at the local party headquarters phoned voters seeking support for national candidates but not local ones,  he said.

The best is the supposed outrage at this from the comments section.  Check this one out.

I've been a Democrat since 1868 and I will never vote for you!!

LOL.


[ Parent ]
So
I was a REpublican but because a Republican or 2 in my county supported a Dem and I am mad about that so I am going to become a Dem myself?  Is that about right?  It is a pretty funny story.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

[ Parent ]
Must have join the GOP because of the war and then got disillusioned them over reconstruction


28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
Above comment is WIN.


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Little
off-topic WATN. Jerry Brown's sister, Kathleen Brown (1994 gubernatorial loser to Pete Wilson) is moving to Chicago to become Goldman Sachs chairman of investment banking. Unlike her brother she still has a full set of hair.

http://blogs.sacbee.com/capito...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


Pennsylvania
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x128...

Casey has a 39/29 positive job approval rating. Leads 43-35 over an unnamed Republican.

Obama has a 44-43 positive approval rating and would defeat an unnamed Republican by a 41-37 margin.

Most of these early polls are showing many more undecideds than usual are they not?



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