Chicagoland:
District 1 (dark blue): Rush-D 53%B, 39%W. Stays in Cook County now but takes very white areas away from Lipinski so the district can comply with the VRA.
District 2 (dark green): Jackson Jr.-D 53%B, 39%W. Gives up a bit of Hispanic and racially mixed south Chicago and suburbs to Halvorson in exchange for a bit of lean-Republican suburbia formerly in Biggert's district. Still Jackson will have no worries here and it may introduce him to some new voters he'll need if he ever wants to follow through on his statewide aspirations.
District 3 (purple): Lipinski-D 51% Hispanic, 41% White
Probably white-majority electorate but as the children become voters, this district will eventually probably elect a second Hispanic congressman. I expect a lot of hollering about this district and possibly some lawsuits, but the comments on yesterday's map convinced me of its dubious legality regarding these two seats. Besides, I offer you two options here.
District 4 (red): Gutierrez-D 63% Hispanic, 26% White, 5% Black. It's certainly possible to cram more Hispanics in here but I think it will no longer be legal to do this. The VRA - as has been pointed out - is not designed to ensure the election of a member of the ethnic group but rather to give that ethnic or racial group the maximum opportunity of electing candidates of their choice. Again, I've shown yesterday that it is feasible to create two districts that, on paper, are majority Hispanic - the question is whether the DOJ and/or the courts will require it be done. We'll find out next year.
Also I see no reason to draw the earmuffs except to preserve a Republican gerrymander, which is why they were drawn in the first place after 1990. By reconnecting the two parts of the seat a bit differently, you can have Davis go out into DuPage County and free up enough non-Black areas of Chicago currently in his district to vote in the 10th.
District 7 (grey) Davis-D 53%B, 33%W, 8%H
Almost goes up to Roskam's doorstep. Helps out the gerrymander perhaps the most as it probably ensures the election of a new Democratic congressman from the 10th and, indirectly, helps out Melissa Bean in her comeback bid as it free up enough territory that the 10th doesn't need Waukegan.
District 5 (yellow) Quigley-D 70%W, 16%H, 4%B
In the absence of partisan numbers, I'll guestimate based on the racial numbers and from eye-balling this that I've left enough of Quigley's Chicago base to not cause him much worries. The areas of northern DuPage County were 50-50 in Kerry-Bush and are probably slightly Dem-leaning by now. Elk Grove also I believe is slightly Dem-leaning by now.
District 9 (light blue) Schakowsky-D 63%W, 14%H, 13%A, 8%B
Again, I believe the addition of Wheeling Twp with Mt. Pleasant is probably not endangering Schakowsky terribly, especially when I left intact her Jewish and liberal Chicago and northern suburban base.
District 10 (pink-red) Dolt-R but probably I'm guessing Hamos-D 74%W, 11%H, 9%A, 5%B
A competent suburban Democrat can win this district. As pointed out in the comments to my other map, the thin narrow tendril down to Navy Pier is deceiving; it is packed with high-rises which vote ~85% Democratic. I tried not to rob too much of them from Schakowsky. Probably turns an already D+6 district (the most frigging Democratic PVI seat at the moment represented by a Republican in Congress!) probably into a district that voted for Obama in the mid 60s% and for Kerry around 60%. Although actual numbers here will rest my case.
District 8 (purple) Bean-D vs. Walsh-R 64%W, 20%H, 9%A, 6%B
Tilts toward Bean now with the addition of Waukegan and a few Hispanic precincts in northern DuPage. Adds the Republican part of Palatine back into the district, though. And Bean lives in frigging Barrington. At least the district contains no more of McHenry, though. Without McHenry in the district in 2010, Bean would have won re-election. I think the fact that Walsh is a wack-job, Obama is at the top of the ballot, and this is a better district for Bean will all result in this district flipping in 2012.
District 11 (indigo) VACANT designed for Halvorson-D 60%W, 20%H, 15%B
Kinzinger drawn into the 18th to duke it out with Aaron Schock, modeled after Halvorson's old state senate seat which straddled the Will-southern Cook County area if I recall. Modeled after the district of the 1990s actually but a bit more Democratic now than then so Halvorson should like this district quite nicely.
Northern Illinois more generally
District 6 (teal) Hulgren-R vs. Roskam-R vs. Biggert-R 80%W, 8%H, 7%A, 4%B
I bet you Biggert retires and Roskam and Hulgren try to out tea party the other. Might leave an opening for a Melissa Bean kind of Democrat as this district - although drawn to be a Republican vote sink - still probably narrowly voted for Obama in 2008. So it isn't super-Republican. Should be fun to watch.
District 14 (brown-green) VACANT but designed for a Foster comeback 61%W, 26%H, 9%B, 3%A
More firmly Democratic than yesterday's version. What a big difference adding Aurora makes. In case you are wondering what the deal is about the tiny dip into DuPage is - two reasons. First of all partisan redistricting tends to be a bit petty - for example the tiny finger going into Montgomery County, PA to come near Hoeffel's house - I think I might have come very close to drawing Hultgren into here. But more the point, it grabs a few carefully chosen Hispanic precincts.
District 16 (green) Manzullo-R vs. Schilling-R
Swoops around the 14th and takes all the rural Republican areas of northern Illinois out of that district and the 17th to the south.
District 17 (dark purple) VACANT possibly the Democratic Moline-based State Representative that was mentioned in the comments?
Very little different from yesterday's version.
District 18 (yellow) Kinzinger-R vs. Schock-R
Who can out-glamour and out tea party the other? Realistically if you are a cynical political operator out of Springfield (and who isn't in this state of consummate political machine politicians - and I thought New York State was bad!), you will get rid of the one of the two greatest long-term threats to Dick Durbin in 2014 by pairing them together. Either one of them would make formidable candidates in a toxic midterm in the 6th year of Obama's possible two-term presidency. Not that I think Durbin's in any danger or doesn't know how to get his hands dirty and win an election. Just thinking about the long-term view.
Anyway, this is a rural heartland GOP vote sink now missing its juicy Democratic cities.
Downstate
District 15 (orange) Johnson-R but maybe not for long
Very similar to how I drew the seat yesterday. I'd like to see Kerry numbers on this one, but I think the cities probably outvoted the Republican rural areas connecting them. And even if not, it is better to try to capture one seat rather than than divide these cities into two districts and continue electing two Republican congressmen.
District 12 (medium blue) Costello-D
Very similar to yesterday's version except I thought that Edwardsville, with its students, might be added to add a few more Democrats to the seat, and subtracted much of racist Union County. The reason you need a tiny tendril down to Cairo is that the very tip of the state is about 30-35% black and reliably Democratic. I live in this district, in uber-liberal Carbondale, where I teach in the history department at SIU. Costello is so frigging safe that I figured he did not need my vote this year and voted Green to protest against his antics on the health care reform law earlier this year when he was one of the Stupak gang threatening to withhold votes needed to pass it.
District 13 (pink-red) Shimkus-R
As I said before, it pains me that I have to draw a vote-sink for Shimkus but there it is. A devious possible alteration would be to throw Shimkus into the southern-central Illinois cities seat and draw more moderate Johnson into the vote-sink. I guess it doesn't really matter. |
