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VA-Sen: Highway to the Danger Zone for Webb

by: Crisitunity

Tue Dec 14, 2010 at 12:43 PM EST


Clarus (pdf) (12/7-9, Virginia voters, no trendlines)

Jim Webb (D-inc): 41
George Allen (R): 40
Undecided: 19

Jim Webb (D-inc): 39
Bob McDonnell (R): 42
Undecided: 19

Jim Webb (D-inc): 44
Ken Cuccinelli (R): 33
Undecided: 23
MoE: ±4%

Yes, yes, I know Jim Webb was a Marine, not a Navy aviator, so the Top Gun/Kenny Loggins reference is a bit misplaced, but the point still stands. Despite leading likely opponent George Allen in their rematch, Jim Webb is in a fairly dangerous position, well below the 50% mark that supposedly represents safety, even below 50 against the simultaneously little-known and polarizing AG Ken Cuccinelli. (Although think about the Senators who squeaked by in November despite routinely polling nowhere near 50%...)

Webb's approvals are actually quite good, at 47/24; given the dropoff, it seems like there are a fair share of Republican and indie voters who approve of the man but still don't want a Democrat in office. The 29% who "don't know" is also surprisingly high. (Mark Warner fares even better, at 57/23, as does new GOP governor Bob McDonnell, at 53/27.) There's one other very interesting data point in the crosstabs that's worth sharing, that says a lot about the parties in Virginia, who's in what party, and the very bright line somewhere around Fredericksburg that demarcates the Northeast from the South: Webb's approvals are much higher among people making over $100,000 per year (54%) than those making under (45%).

One other bit of Virginia news: ex-Rep. Tom Davis, last seen getting cock-blocked out of the 2008 Senate nomination by the decision to hold an nominating convention rather than a primary, has decided that the GOP has gone even further away from his direction and isn't even going to bother with this cycle. Davis used to represent Dem-leaning VA-11 and is from the sorta-moderate-or-at-least-sane camp of Republicans that would make him an imposing general election competitor if there were a way anymore for him to emerge with a primary victory.
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VA-Sen: Highway to the Danger Zone for Webb | 78 comments
Webb isn't much of a Senator
He's never been serious about constituency service and seems bored (at best) with his job.  I mentioned previously I've heard he's lobbying very hard to get Gates job this summer, but it remains to be seen if Obama even wants him (Is anyone dying to find out how another republican, even an ex-republican, would run DoD?) and if the WH would be willing to suffer the abuse from having given another Senate seat to the GOP.

I think Allen's attacks on Webb recently are based more on keeping Webb in the race than winning the election, I think Allen's team (rightly) sees Kaine as a far more dangerous opponent than a feckless and disinterested Webb.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

feckless?
That is being quite harsh. It is obvious that he doesn't love the day-to-day grind of the senate, but to suggest that he is somehow a terrible senator. The man is a foreign policy, and military expert. And his working in the Reagan administration may prove to be valuable when forging the necessary compromises coming in the next congress.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Too harsh?
Outside of his (very) specific areas of interest (and expertise) he's an almost non-entity. He has the talent, but not the desire. It might be different if he was in the house where you can focus more on 1 or 2 committee assignments, but in the Senate....

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
Yes, too harsh
Webb's only Senate committee assignments are in the area of "interest (and expertise)" Armed Services, Veterans Affairs, and Foreign Relations. Tell me how he is letting the people down with his work on any of those committees.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Like I said
His consituency service is somewhere between terrible & non-existant and he has done nothing to distinguish himself outside of the areas he has interest in.

The only thing I can think of him doing or saying about anything else was his comments to Obama about health care that seemed best designed to alienate just about everyone.

He just doesn't seem to be TRYING, which I think will make him a sitting duck IF he runs again (which I seriously doubt). Thus Allen's attacks (IMO) aimed at pissing Webb off enough to get him to run and thus avoid a far more dangerous general election foe in Kaine.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
Also his affirmative action op-ed
Was out of left field. Why that issue, why then?

Even tipping off that you might not be interested in running for re-election is a bad move, without more. Especially when your fundraising is weak. It just looks bad if he limps into the race now.

[ Parent ]
Yup
Webb looks like one of those resume candidates that so good on paper, but just not capable or willing to put in the the legwork to be successful in his job. Best case for Dems right now is he announces in the next 3-6 months he's not running for re-election and give Kaine plenty of time to get his ducks in a row to go mano y mano with Allen.  Worst case is Allen succeeds in getting Webb to run out of pride and he limps through the race. In that scenario I think Allen wins, but in a straight up fight with Kaine I wouldn't put a penny on Allen to win.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
Not Larry Sabato has a different conclusion
http://notlarrysabato.typepad....

bolding mine

Communications, Constituent Services and his Political operations have been incredibly weak.

But on policy matters with the GI Bill, his leadership on prison reform and the international expertise that he has brought to the Senate this might be one of the most successful first terms for any U.S. Senator in recent memory.


[ Parent ]
Different?
I lean heavily on @notlarrysabato (from whom I go the inspiration for my own name) to know what's happening outside my bubble in Virginia (I live in Fairfax County BTW), but I don't think his conclusion differs much from my own - his effort and influence outside of his own areas of interest are weak, but where he has actually focused I think he has done fine work (I do disagree about prison reform, especially in that anything substancial has actually happened or that Webb can take credit for it - if he was even intersted in taking credit for his succcesses in the first place).

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
"feckless" != "most successful"
(the != is computer code for "not equal")

While they're not precisely antonyms, they do lead to different conclusions about Webb's tenure so far.

a.k.a. Different conclusions based on the same general premises.

[ Parent ]
Webb
Has had some success, true. I still consider him a failure as a Senator. Feckless may indeed be too harsh, but I still think the guy ran for the wrong reasons and has shown no interest in actually doing his job, at least beyone the very (IMO) limited realm in which he has interest.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
I agree with Not Larry Sabato's conclusion
this might be one of the most successful first terms for any U.S. Senator in recent memory.

We could use more Senators who care about policy, and less about helping constituents harass our public servant bureaucrats.

[ Parent ]
Your "ran for the wrong reasons" comment is the most wrong thing anyone can say about Webb......
Webb absolutely ran because he loves his country, did not like the direction his former party was taking it, and wanted to work on issues of importance to him.

That actually describes a lot more elected officials at all levels than most people believe, but in Webb's case that motivation wasn't polluted with naked ambition.  And that, unfortunately and ironically, is why his political operation, communications, and constituent service are bad, as Ben at NLS describes.  He doesn't want to be in office for the sake of being in office, so some of the things incumbents do to stay in office are things he doesn't feel motivated to do.

All that said, Virginians like Jim Webb.  They just do.  He can win reelection in spite of himself, especially given that Obama will go to the mat to manufacture a strong turnout model just like last time.  I feel pretty good about Webb's chances if he decides to run.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Thank you!
Webb is truly a non-politican guy. Meeting lots of Dems in Charlottesville when I helped out Perriello's campaign they talked of how he was rarely around unlike Warner who they felt like came all the time. He ran because he loves the country and is passionate about a few things. I don't see him pulling a John McCain and flip flopping for something just to stay in office. He'd just retire and move into private life. Nothing wrong at all with that. I do wish he would help build the party apart from a few fundraising emails but he is what he is and I respect/admire it.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
[ Parent ]
I think he ran because
he was pissed at Bush about the Iraq war. That's a good start, but if that's all you got your not going to be a very good Senator - and he's not.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
You're badly closed-minded on this, others have pointed out on this sub-thread...
...the work Webb has done on a number of issues, including prison reform among other things.  So no, opposing the Iraq War is not all he's got.

Assuming you're a Democrat, that's fine if you want to be among the trivial percentage of Democrats who disapprove of Webb's job performance, but the fact is most Virginians like Webb, and outsidee the conservative base they have no objection to his work as a Senator.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
We can agree to disagree
On Webb's accomplishments as Senator. Personally (emphasis on this being my opinion), he has never taken the job of US Senator seriously and that has shown in how he has handle his state offices and constituency service, communication etc. I have trememdous respect for @notlarrysabato, but I also disagree on him on Webb's "accomplishments" in Prison reform, both in the substance of the work and what how much Webb has factored into it.

The bottom line is this, if Webb does run again I believe he will lose. He didn't run the greatest campaign in the first place and if not for the general anti-GOP mood in '06 and Allen's absolutely amazing stupidity in muttering his bizarro racial epitet at Webb's campaign worker he probably would have lost badly.

Unless there is a major turn-around in his behavior toward his job and the state he'll muddle his way through a campaign, just like he's muddled his way through the last 4 years in the Senate and our reward for loyalty to him will be a return of Senator George Allen.

Personally I hope he'll quickly step aside and give Kaine the time he needs to mount a real campaign and if that happens by spring I think there is a very good chance of keeping this seat in the blue collumn.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
So this is your measure of a "good" senator?
in how he has handle his state offices and constituency service, communication etc.

I find those qualities to be irrelevant to the quality of a Senator.

However, that "political savvy" can be important to a politician's re-election. But as user Andrew has shown here, http://swingstateproject.com/s... , that specific lack of political savvy is easy to fix, even during a re-election campaign.

It's like someone who is excellent at his job who is awful at (and IMO doesn't waste time on) office politics.

[ Parent ]
OK
I'm going to just give you a blanket disagreement and we can leave it at that, but mark my words - if Webb runs again he WILL lose, if he walks away (from a job he obviously hates) then Kaine has a VERY good job of keeping the seat.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
Webb was actually ahead of his time
an anti-politician who won in '06, before the anti-politician year of '10. To me, that's the kind of profile that will hold Tea Party-friendly D voters.
[ Parent ]
I'm not buying
refusing to do constituency service as a positive, or as somehow it being anti-politician to basically ignore your consituents, but ok.

Obviously you like him, which is your perogitive. I think he's wasting his time and ours with the way he's running his office and approaching the job of being a US Senator, further I see no sign of him changing and if he tries to run for re-election in the same manner he's performed in the Senate we might as well gift rap the seat or Allen & McConnell with a nice bow and a card that says "I did it my way"

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
So you believe that the job of a Senator
is to secure personal earmarks for every constituent who has a complaint?

While it may be a flaw in Webb's political skills, that's fixable with party help -- and

it seems to me that the common good is more important.

[ Parent ]
Consituency Service equals Earmarks?
I think you just stepped off the deep end with that one.

Also, I never faulted Webb's political skill, but I very much doubt his desire - whether he is capable is irrelevant so long as he refuses to immerse himself in the real nitty-gritty part of his job. There is so much more to being a Senator than going to your committee meetings and doing the things you want. As an elected official he has a moral obligation to take his position seriously and serve the people who elected him, not just his own (miniscule) interests.

Obviously you have a real soft spot for him, and good for you. I respectfully disagree and think the Commonweath of Virginia, the United States Senate and the Democratic Senate Caucus will ALL be better off if the decides to go off and do something worthwhile with the remainder of his career and stop wasting his and our time by continuing to occupy a seat he clearly doesn't care about or want.

End of Rant.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
Both do not consider the common good
And we need more Senators who put the common good first.  
[ Parent ]
Uhm, no.
I wrote a very nasty post back, but deleted it. Obviously we'll never find common ground on Webb, but I think you do need to take a good look at what other Senators and Congressman do in contituency service.

Helping the people of your state or district, especially in dealing with the federal government (but there is so much more to it than that) is by absolutely no means against the common good.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
I tried going back to read your
comments on other senators to see if you have a soft spot for Webb or if you're an instinctive incumbent protector. Please fill me in...something tells me if someone like Scott Brown took Webb's approach to the duties as a US Senator you would castigate them endlessly, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
I take my earlier comment back
Webb is a feckless Senator and his continued service is a crime against humanity.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
LOL!
Now that sounds like your --not-- namesake username! Thanks for the laugh.
[ Parent ]
I do have a soft spot
for people in office who do not act like politicians, who instead channel their energies towards the national issues of the day and the future.

I can't think of many other examples, as they are mostly "under the radar". (Lawton Chiles comes to mind.) Scott Brown does not have the experience or stature of Webb, so he can't even begin to address the same types of issues with any sort of seriousness.

[ Parent ]
I don't mind
people who don't act like politicians, it is rather refreshing when you find one, but I take serious issue on comparing someone like Webb who I feel (and this again is just my opinion) don't take their job seriously. You can "not act like a politician" and actually run a decent Senate office at the same time...

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
I'm pretty sure he's a Republican
I think he mentioned working for Wayne Gilchrest, or maybe I'm mixing him with someone else. Although I was under the impression that Republicans aren't allowed to bash Democrats here.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I did work for Wayne
As a media consultant, mainly as a media buyer - althouh I did line production for some of his campaign adds too. I think you'd have no trouble finding Dems all across the Eastern Shore who voted and worked for Wayne without a though in the world about his party affiliation. Remember he was a HS teacher at Kent County High and ran for congress as a school project in '90, losing to Dyson before beating Tom McMillan (anyone in MD or DC remember THAT arrogant SOB?) in '92. I moved to NoVa in '96 and never worked for Gilchrest's congressional office (or any other Hill office).

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
Don't write off Cuccinelli in the primary
The tea party crowd absolutely loves the man, and he is raising his name recognition because of that district court ruling against health care reform. Don't be surprised if he comes out of that primary.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

I suspect Allen might well pass on a run should Cuccinelli pull the trigger
Not unlike Mark Kirk this year, I think the last thing Allen wants is a comeback marked by a bruising primary. I actually think Allen would rather comfortably defeat Cuccinelli, but this guy is still bound to create some headaches for Cornyn & Co.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
I would love to see that kind of cat fud.
Bitter primaries on the Republican side lead to Democratic wins. And in Southern, reddish states like Virginia, that may be the difference in the election.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Allen Challenger
I honestly see no way Bollings or Cuccinelli challenge Allen in the primary. There is still much dissapointment in Allen among the GOP faithful, but it's more for blowing the race with his stupid Macaca comment than anything  idiological. Bollings will run for Gov in '13 & Cuccinelli will run for re-election (AGs can do that in VA but Governors can't).

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
Cooch re-upping as AG?
You gravely underestimate him.  He'll run for Gov in 2013.  Bolling is a potted plant who can easily be beaten. If we get top dollar competition on our side (say...Perriello), we can beat Cooch.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Bolling vs Cooch Primary in '13?
That would be one seriously nasty fight, something the VA GOP has actually done a good job of avoiding lately. If they went up against each other I think Cooch wins easily, but I'm not sure he wants to be Governor. His interests seem far more in National issues (which he has focused on as AG). Not sure where else he can go since I'm convinced he will NOT run for Senate in a primary with Allen, but probably isn't dumb enough to think he can take down Mark Warner in '14.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
Then Governor is his best shot.
Nobody runs for President who is an A-G.  It's even lower than the House in terms of presidential pecking order.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
EGO
Cooch is a true believer, but even then I don't think he has his eyes set on a presidential run. That said I think his thinking (if you can call it that) is; 1. Governor is not a good job to do the things he wants 2. He doesn't have the pull to beat Allen in a primary 3. Even if he didn't have to face Allen It's too soon to jump into another statewide race 4. As long as he's stearing his court case he can't run for anything else 5. If he is successful he can expect good things to happen to him regardless (he'd be at the top of any future GOP POTUS' AG short list)

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
He'd be smart
To not run if Cuccinelli ran. Cuccinelli can have any Republican nomination he wants in VA.  
[ Parent ]
The problem is that
Cuccinelli can't win the general against a strong statewide candidate now that people know what he's about.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
i pretty much agree
Anyone remember how competitive AZ-Gov was looking bc Brewer was such a weak candidate?  She signed SB1070 and the race was over both for the primary and general.  Same principle for Cooch but probably only for the primary.  Although the mandate issue is one I'm sure a Southern state with a history of having the feds tell them what to do is one that would play well.
[ Parent ]
Allen has a clear field for VA-Sen 2012, Cooch wants to run for Governor in 2013......
It's well-known here that the plan all along for Cooch was, if he won the A.G. race which he did, that he would run for Governor in 2013.  Bolling, too, wants it, so they will battle for the nomination unless they cut a deal, but Cooch isn't going to challenge Allen for Senate instead.

Allen is very strong within the VA GOP and no one realistically can beat him for the Senate nomination.

But for Governor, Cooch is likely to beat Bolling in a convention, and probably also in a primary.  And that's the job Cooch wants anyway.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Archer -- Danger Zone
I finally get rid of my Archer kick and you bring up Danger Zone. Just lost another day of productivity.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Quick Question -- off topic
Does anyone know where I can find a somewhat comprehensive list of GOP filibusters in the last year or so? I'm trying to piece them together from news articles and don't know how many I'm missing.

Here are a few to get you started:

1. Craig Becker
2. 9/11 Responders
3. Defense authorization with DADT and DREAM ACT
4. Various Unemployment Benefit Extensions
5. Small Business jobs bill (cloture eventually successful)

Any more?

Financial reform
took several weeks for Democrats to finally scrap up the votes for cloture. Didn't help that Ben fucking Nelson was happily filibustering the bill with the GOP.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
It would be a shorter list
To point out what they haven't. Sotomayor and Kagen and...
[ Parent ]
Not the right place for this
Save this kind of thing for the digest or weekly open thread, please.
[ Parent ]
No, I'd go further than that
This isn't really a good topic for SSP in general. We're about elections. I wouldn't bring this into a Daily Digest. A Weekly Open Thread is kind of borderline, but even then... it's just not a good topic!
[ Parent ]
A few thoughts:
1. About a fourth to a fifth of the electorate is undecided. That seems extremely large, especially when you consider Allen was elected governor and then senator. People say that Webb hasn't done enough constituent services, but at the same time, isn't this also an indication that people aren't reflexively anti-Democratic so much as just really, really not sure of which way they are leaning at the moment?

2. If Webb's biggest problem is constituent services, isn't that really a good thing? I mean, if the hardest thing he has to do is go out and talk to people, shouldn't he just do it if he wants the job? He has every opportunity to define himself more before the others do it for him.

3. Maybe he can bring Mark Warner along. I mean, damn, that guy is doing well. It's questionable how much impact candidates from particular states actually have, but it looks like he could deliver Virginia to the Democrats in 2016 without much of a problem. And if he does have presidential ambitions, that's hardly a bad opening offer.

4. How is Ken Cuccinelli so unknown? He's not some state senator from some rural area. He's the Attorney General. You'd think he'd have fairly high name recognition

5. What is the breakdown of Republicans, Democrats, and Independents? Am I being dense and missing it, or was it never mentioned? If it wasn't mentioned, how do we know that it wasn't skewed in some way?

6. This is one poll, which contrasts with the PPP poll from a few weeks ago. It's not really clear what the status of his reelection chances is, except to say he's not going to win with some outrageous percent of the vote, which nobody expected him to do anyway.

7. Just how much will the work that the Obama campaign put in last time and what they will certainly put in next time help Webb, especially if the biggest counties go against the Republican more than they did the last time? Also, can Obama help Webb in some of the smaller but still big counties, like Chesterfield?

For argument's sake, let's do a very rough calculation. In 2006, Webb received 40 percent of the vote (42,204 votes) in Chesterfield County, while Allen received 59 percent (61,956 votes). In 2008, Obama received 46 percent (74,310 votes), and McCain 54 percent (86,413 votes). I'm not really sure who would be voting for Obama for president but trying to vote George Allen back into the Senate unless the Republican nominee is Sarah Palin, but let's use the 2008 numbers but change the 2006 percentages slightly, so that Webb would get 43 percent and Allen 57 percent. That would give Webb about 69,111 votes, versus about 64,289 votes if he received his 2006 total. That's a pretty big difference. So while the Democratic advantage from last time might not be so pronounced, my guess is that Webb can only benefit from Obama being at the top of the ticket, unless it's a truly awful year for the Democrats. I'm almost ready to say that if Obama wins Virginia, Webb wins, regardless of who the Republicans nominate.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

But here's my problem with your reasoning
2006 and 2008 were both very Democratic years. I put Obama as a favorite to win relection, but I don't neccesarily think he will Virginia again (nor does he need to). If Allen gets in it, I think it will be a close race whether Webb, or Kaine, or someone else is the opponent.  
[ Parent ]
I think it's more likely he wins Virginia than Florida or Ohio
at this point. It's not as necessary as, say, Michigan or Minnesota, but it's still a very important state. What makes you think otherwise?

Now, yes, those were very Democratic years, and 2012 might not be. That's why I split the difference when I used Chesterfield County as an example. In other words, I assumed that while Webb would do better than he did in 2006, he wouldn't do as well as Obama did in 2008. There's really no way to tell what would happen at this point, but I don't think I was overly optimistic in my example.

I think it was DCCyclone who said that while McCain actually improved just barely on Bush's totals in the state, by about 10,000 votes, Obama improved on Kerry's totals by about 500,000 votes. He's right, of course, so it's not as if we are simply fighting over the same static pool of voters. While he's probably picked up a lot of the low hanging fruit-type support in the state, but he could still do more to pump up his totals. There are still a few hundred thousand unregistered black voters in the state. Maybe they are slightly more conservative than they are in New York, but they almost certainly aren't going to give their Republican any more than ten percent of their vote. And that's only going to help Webb. Do you really think it's out of the question for Obama and Webb to get about 50,000 more black votes than Obama did in 2008?

It doesn't have to be a great year for Obama for Webb to benefit from his presence at the top of the ticket; it just can't be a bad one.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Not for the first time
I agree. His margin in Virginia was pretty close to matching his national winning percentage so it is a decent barometer this time around. Having said that, though I'm not sure about reapportionment, I think the bare minimum for 270 is the states won both times by Gore and Kerry plus NH, NM, IA, CO and NV.
[ Parent ]
Is Virginia definitely losing
a seat?

I use the "Kerry states, plus" way of thinking because Iowa and New Mexico were close each time, but New Hampshire seems to be moving in our direction at the national level. Kerry got more votes than Gore, and Obama got far more votes than Kerry. He might not get as many as he did last time, but unless he absolutely collapses, I think he eeks out a win even if he ends up losing by a little like Kerry did.

But anyway, so yes, it's the Kerry states, plus Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado, or Virginia and just one of Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado. Looking at it like this, which I don't think is really unreasonable, his strength in the Electoral College is greatly understated.

At this point, I'd much rather see him looking stronger in Virginia and the Southwest than in Ohio or Florida. Unless the Republican wins by a huge margin overall, both of those states will be decided by just a few points.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
No way
Virginia loses a seat. The last estimate I saw showed VA w/ 11 seats and 200k from gaining a seat and 500k from losing a seat.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
Ahh, I just
misread conspiracy's reapportionment comment. He was talking about how it would affect the Electoral College totals from different states, not how it would affect Virginia's number.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
BTW based on that same estimate
from EDS, inc on 9/25/10 the breakdown of electoral votes would be Dems 242 & GOP 180 w/ state that have NOT changed sides since 2000. The states Obama won, but Kerry AND Gore lost total 95 and the states Bush won once, but McCain lost total 21. By my count that would put Obama at 263 to start and only needing 1 of the Bush twice states (Indiana,
North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, Ohio & Colorado) CO seems a likely "keep" which would equal 270 so obviously the GOP candidate is going to have to pick up some Blue states like Michigan or Wisconsin to have any hope of winning.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
At the risk of
going too far into policy talk, let me say that if Obama is reading my thoughts and pushes for a second stimulus based on infrastructure and education, I hope he decides to push for some spending that would create jobs and fund research for colleges. Unless there's some sort of aversion to federal spending in some areas that I am not aware of, wouldn't people in, say, the Research Triangle in North Carolina respond positively to it? And doesn't pretty much every state that isn't Wyoming have some populated area that has some science or technology base that can be helped out? Call it buying votes if you'd like, but I prefer to think of it as helping the economy, particularly in the short term, which ends up getting us votes. Even if the Republicans bash him for it--and they will, because they'll bash him for tying his shoes the wrong way--would the voters in those states care?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Michele Bachmann obviously has awful constituent services
In 2008 she countered this by having mobile Congressional offices a few months before the election so that constituents wouldn't have travel as far if they had something they had an issue.

Not hard to make it look like you care about constituent service over-night if you have the right marketing team.

[ Parent ]
Tim Kaine wrote an Op-ed a few days ago
Speaking out in favor of the DREAM Act. What does that say about a possible Senate run? Does it mean that he is positioning himself for a run, or wants to just serve as a national fund raiser and figurehead? Would it make his chances of winning better or worse in Virginia?

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
Sorry. Link
http://www.politico.com/news/s...

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
DREAM ACT
Is key for getting the hispanic vote in Arlington County out for Kaine in a Senate run, but this sounds more like a move to maintain relivance in a top policy issue nationally, not staking out a position for a statewide run.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
TX-St. Assembly: Pena will switch, but.....(!)
71% of voters in his district voted straight Democratic this November (yes, this year, a terrible year in TX for Dems).  This is undoubtedly a suicide mission on his part, like that McKillip guy in Athens, GA.

(Sorry for posting this year, I'm too impatient to wait for the Daily Digest.)

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

I mean "here", not "year"


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
State District
He might be hoping to convince his new friends in the GOP caucus to draw him a nice district that he can still win instead of packing him into a district he can't (either in the primary or general).

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
That'll be pretty hard, unless
he's willing to move quite a ways.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
A very good explanation for this:
This is about having influence, even if means betraying what few principles you have. The same thing is happening here in Georgia. To be a Democrat in the Georgia General Assembly today is to have no pull at all, not just because of numbers but because of the GOP freezing out the minority party in every way possible.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
We might not
see the emergence of Democratic strength in some of the states for another decade or so, and perhaps it'll be different at the state level than at the national level, but is this anything other than a reaction to current conditions? You could make a pretty convincing case that states like Louisiana are moving away from us, but can the same really be said for Georgia? I am not so sure. I mean, it's not really good that we are losing legislators, but it's far from the end of the world.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Surprised Cuccinelli is so low
He's been in the news a lot this week because of the judicial challenge to the individual mandate. I would have expected him to be in the upper 30's with the Republican base consolidated. Is he that offensive to independents?

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
Even a high profile state AG
is still just a state AG. So much of what they do just doesn't stick in the brains of an average voter. This isn't just at the state level either, what percentage of voters do you think know who Eric Holder is? I doubt even a super-high visability AG like John Ashcroft barely didn't have a name ID over 20%

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
Totally made up that 20% BTW


"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
Cooch is intensely polarizing, his weakness in that poll makes perfect sense......
The anti-tax, pro-business, socially moderate/liberal swing voters don't like Cuccinelli and won't vote for him.  He got those votes outside NoVA because people elsewhere aren't familiar with him, but he was a NoVA state Senator and around these parts he's disliked and lost his own county to Steve Shannon.  Cooch won the A.G. race big on a combination of McDonnell coattails and Shannon running perhaps as bad a campaign as Deeds.  But a Senate race isn't going to play out like that against Webb or another competent Democrat.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Good numbers for Webb
and maybe it will put to rest the clucking about he is "dead" and all that nonsense.

Virginia looks to be close, like anyone who happened to notice his election the first time should know.

Turnout, his opponent, and Obama's opponent will tell the tale.

I doubt Sen. Webb will seek reelection
Frankly, he doesn't seem to care much for elected office.

Kaine would be fine; for some reason, I've never really been crazy about him, but he's already won statewide and he's well connected. He'd be a strong candidate. My preference is for Rep. Perriello, though.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

Clarus is not an outfit whose numbers I trust much......
They're not Godawful, and they're better than Christopher Newport University's polling, but they're also not all that.

I can believe high undecideds at this stage, but Clarus normally has had high undecideds much closer to election day, too, in their recent past polling.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

Thoughts on this from a VA active Dem….
1)I am pretty convinced now that Webb is going to retire. I don't have any inside information to this but I am thinking that he is going to call it a career. FWIW I really like him and admire his non-politician style but he has done very little to help develop the VA Democratic bench as compared with Warner and Kaine.
2) That said I think Tim Kaine will run if Webb opts out and I am pretty encouraged by PPP's numbers for Kaine. Kaine/Webb will receive a huge boost from Obama unless if it is like 2010 which I don't see happening. The NoVa vote will come out and the African-American vote will come in the southside. While the white conservative vote will also come out in mass give the demographic change (more in NoVa and much less in southside) I see VA as going blue before FL or OH.
3)George Allen is damaged goods. Ken Cucinelli is way too polarizing. Allen would have a much better shot but I am not afraid of him in 2012. Cooch will run for Governor in 2013 though a part of me wants him to run for Senate in 2012.
4) I think Tom Perriello has a future but it will be in 2013.
5) Tom Davis was the GOP's best candidate and thankfully he is out. That is what you get for being a sane non-polarizing Republican.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
On your second point,
I thought the reason the Democrats were starting to do so well in the state was that the changes were happening in NoVa for them and not the Republicans. It sounds like you are saying the opposite. Am I not reading you correctly? Can you elaborate?

And far as your first point, if he does retire, do you think he'll do it sooner rather than later? I just don't want him to pull a move like Evan Bayh and put his party at a disadvantage. I'm not saying he would do that, just that I don't want him to.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
VA-Sen: Highway to the Danger Zone for Webb | 78 comments

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