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MA-Sen: Who Will Take On Scotty?

by: jeffmd

Wed Dec 08, 2010 at 11:47 AM EST


Public Policy Polling (11/29-12/1, registered Democrats)
Vicki Kennedy (D): 22
Barney Frank (D): 17
Mike Capuano (D): 15
Deval Patrick (D): 13
Stephen Lynch (D): 7
Ed Markey (D): 7
Tom Menino (D): 3
Tim Murray (D): 1
Undecided: 15
MoE: ±6.2%

Perhaps the better question to ask here is who didn't PPP poll in asking Dems who they want to take on Republican incumbent Scott Brown. Ted Kennedy's widow Vicki leads at 22, followed by the one and only Congressman Barney Frank at 17 and Boston/Cambridge Congressman (and special election primary second-place finisher) Mike Capuano at 15. Recently re-elected Governor Deval Patrick is fourth at 13, followed by two more Congressmen, Stephen Lynch and Ed Markey at 7 apiece. Boston mayor Tom Menino gets 3, while recently re-elected Lieutenant Governor Tim Murray gets 1.

The general election half of this poll has Scotty leading all the Dems, but many of our challengers remain relatively unknown quantities, with even 44% of Dems having no opinion of Capuano, 45% having no opinion of Lynch, and 36% having no opinion of Markey.

This field is still wide open...let's just be happy Martha Coakley isn't seeking redemption.
jeffmd :: MA-Sen: Who Will Take On Scotty?
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MA-Sen: Who Will Take On Scotty? | 48 comments
As
much as I love Barney, and really would wish a state would finally elect an openly LGBT person, I believe Frank would not only be our weakest candidate but I highly doubt as well that he would be willing to give up not only his high seniority but his comfortable house seat. Mike Capuano is probally our best hope to recapture this seat for the Dems. I would love Vicki to be a Senator but her being the nominee against Brown would create a Washington annointed candidate versus a "average" guy candidate which I fear Brown would win.

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
MA isn't NV
I think you highly underestimate the goodwill the Kennedys have with the American public AND, particularly, New England Democrats. Despite what polling says, Vicki Kennedy would romp to victory in MA. There chances of her running are slim to none; however, another Kennedy would perform almost as well.

I do agree though that it is high time MA elect a LGBT statewide elected official and that Barney Frank would not be the ideal candidate. He is far too polarizing. That said, I still believe he could win.

If my memory serves me right, the special election was something like 52-48 for Sen. Brown. I believe he did win Frank's 4th congressional district ever so slightly. If Frank could swing his own district by 10 points, say from a Brown win over Coakley of 52-48 to a Frank win over Brown 53-47, that would go almost the entire way towards closing the gap.

This is Massachusetts during a presidential election, with the help of voter turnout and the fantastic Democratic machine vote, Democrats will be hard-pressed to lose this race.

If we can't win in MA, it's game over.

21, male,TX-08 (home), LA-06 (college, voting)

[ Parent ]
It
all depends on how incumbents are viewed come 2012 and how well Vicki campaigns. But this is all hypothetical as I highly doubt Vicki actully ends up running.

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
While your points are correct
Is Vicki the right Kennedy for this seat?
[ Parent ]
Last
I heard she's still grieving over Ted's death  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
I don't think you ever stop grieving the lose of
a loved one. She has been in the public eye somewhat and her husband did want her to replace him, but the could mean nothing.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
I would like to see Joe Kennedy II in the poll

If I'm not wrong he was well placed in a close poll to this before the 2010 election.

I would not rule out one Kennedy for the seat, and more if many people want a Kennedy for the seat.

I have not trouble with the Kennedy family like I have not trouble with the Carnahan family and others.

[ Parent ]
I don't have a problem
with families that are truly committed to public service. It would seem most Kennedy's are committed to exactly that.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
It seems the Kennedy family is well liked but the people of Massachusetts

If they want a Kennedy I would support a Kennedy. Not trouble for me. I want to encourage the candidate what the people wish. I think this is a good strategy for win the seat again.
[ Parent ]
I think your are right

I think this is a seat for campaign hard and win. And the first poll is not bad for a the potential strongest challengers. I would like to see some people more in the poll (J Kennedy II and some house representative more) but we can not ignore these results.


[ Parent ]
surprising that patrick is doing so poorly this early
i can't imagine him winning, but he was recently re-elected albeit narrowly and is probably the best known of any of his rivals.  at this point it's essentially a name recognition game, so it seems like he should be doing a bit better.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
I would bet
that it has everything to do with him just being re-elected. The voters probably want him to actually do his job and not run for another office right away, rather than it being a comment on his popularity.
[ Parent ]
Exactly.
A lot of MA voters are still pissed at Romney for deserting his job midway through his term so he could go run for President and bash the people he still worked for. It's made them particularly sensitive to having a governor who actually does the job he was elected to do, rather than trying to further his own career.  
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't mind another Kennedy in the senate.
But who knows if Vicki even wants to run or if she could win. Are best bet would probably be Capuano.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
*our


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Poli Sci v. Gut
This election will be a real test of whether political scientists or strategists are right.

According to the poliSci crowd in Presidential year elections, Senate races specifically gravitate towards the party's performance and ticket splitting becomes less likely. For some reason, this does not happen as much in governor's (intuitive) and House (not intuitive) races.

MA and WV will be a big test in 2012.

Great comparison!
I hadn't thought too much about the comparison between the 2. I think there are structural differences though, but overall it is interesting to think about.

I would say that differences may occur in the structure of each state, where voters in MA typically vote Democratic in local, statewide AND national races and in all types of races, while WV voters only have, in the past few cycles, voted for Democrats in most elections barring Presidential elections, and to a lesser extent, congressional elections.

But overall, it is an interesting comparison...

21, male,TX-08 (home), LA-06 (college, voting)

[ Parent ]
IMO Murray's the Best Candidate
The best way to win the race is to run a generic D, who will actually campaign unlike a certain AG. You need to make this race all about Brown/national Republicans.

Barney's personality is so off-putting that it will tamp down the gender gap which was key to Patrick's win.

Huh?
How is Barney Frank's personality so off-putting to women that they would vote for a Republican over him?  Other than comparing a lady a "dining room table" once, I don't know of any reason to say such a thing.
[ Parent ]
Watch His Victory Speech
If it's online somewhere.

People are more than willing to vote for Barney to reelect him. But his termperment will not play well when contrasted with Scott Brown.

[ Parent ]
Ouch
Here it is: http://wizbangblog.com/content...
Talk about a bitter winner.  
[ Parent ]
Please, Not Barney
Barney wins his own district for three reasons:
1. There aren't enough conservatives/Republicans in MA-04 to oust him.
2. Even people somewhat otherwise ambivalent about him know he's sharp and astute.
3. He has a good rep for constituent service.

But to someone who's maybe heard of Frank but has no experience with him as a representative, which is to say most of the state, Frank's not going to come across especially well. To some voters that won't matter, but not even in Massachusetts can you win an election only with die hards unwilling to vote for any Republican ever.  

Whoever the Democratic candidate for MA-Sen is, they have to have the following attributes:
1. Someone who is in no way tied to shady dealings in either Boston or Washington;
2. Someone who can articulate exactly why he/she wants to be a Senator;
3. Someone who can make the case for why sending [more] Republicans to the U.S. Senate is a bad idea for Massachusetts (and the nation);
4. Someone who can least stand on a stage with Scott Brown and not have there be a huge "I could hang out with this guy" gap.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
This primary hasn't developed enough for polling to be worth much
Patrick isn't running, and Frank probably won't. Kennedy is a complete wild card, as would be either of her stepsons (Ted Jr and Patrick.) All that we can really take from this now is that the nomination is there for the taking, up in the air for whoever earns it.

I'm beginning to think that Frank may actually win the primary if he runs. The base drives primary elections, and the base loves Frank more than any of the other Dems. Intriguing, though, is that only 38% of the Democrats surveyed are self-described liberals, and a full 11% are self-described conservatives.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

But would he run?
He has a lot of seniority in the house. Would he want to give that up to maybe have a chance of being elected and becoming a freshman senator, at his age.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
I doubt it, I think he's happy as RM of the banking committee
He's also perhaps the least electable Democrat statewide. Too many moderate voters are put off by his aggressive style. But he would be the most fun to watch if he did get in.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Patrick Kennedy is from RI
and Ted Jr is from Connecticut. Why would either of them run in Massachusetts? I think someone like Joseph Kennedy Jr. or his son Joseph III would be far more likely (while still not very likely at all).

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
They are Ted's sons though
No one will level a carpetbagging accusation against a son of Ted Kennedy returning home to MA to run for his father's seat. Ted Jr. is more plausible because he has no electoral connections to CT (Patrick might take some flak for leaving RI-01 to run for MA-Sen.)

Joseph Jr. is always mentioned as a possible candidate but I think he's happy running his oil nonprofit, and Joseph III is still pretty young and is probably waiting for an opening later on. I think Vicki and Ted Jr. are the only plausible Kennedy candidates, but this being MA, nothing would surprise me.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
I've read that Ted wanted Vickie to replace him
and I guess run too.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
On a slightly larger note
Do people ever really care about carpet bagging? If its an Alan Keyes situation where a guy has no connection to the state, then maybe. But even then the fact that he's a frothing at the mouth lunatic was probably a bigger issue. If Al Franken, a candidate who was deeply flawed regardless of that, can overcome it then I think just about anyone can. And yeah I know Franken grew up in Minnesota but he lived outside the state virtually his entire adult life.
[ Parent ]
We did elect Romney
Born in Michigan and spent much of the previous year in Utah prepping for the SLC Olympics. If he can manage it, I think a Kennedy living in a neighboring state would do just fine.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
But
Romney had run in 1994 in MA.  
[ Parent ]
Frank and a Chafee comparison
Barney Frank will be 72 in 2012, a bit old to be starting a Senate career, although it's not unheard of. He's ranking member of Finance at a key time in history. He knows he is polarizing and seems to have no problem with that. I would love to have him in the Senate, but I don't see it happening at all. I'm sure there will be some negotiating among the MA House delegation to see who runs for Senate and who keeps their House district because MA is losing a seat.

I think Brown will lose by at least 8-12 points. The dynamics of this race make it very similar to the Chafee-Whitehouse race in 2006. A moderate Republican in a very blue New England state who is personally well-liked but still a god-damned Republican. But Brown is not nearly as liberal as Chafee, nor does he have the history in his state that Chafee and his family had in Rhode Island. And this is a presidential year, which 2006 was not. Chafee lost 53-47. Don't see how Brown can do any better than that and really should do much worse.

Chafee lost because it was the only vote we could make against Bush...
It was all Chafee=Bush commercials in Rhode Island, even with Linc saying he didn't vote for W in 2004.  The Senate was absolutely in play in 2006, so Dems weren't really high on sending him back to DC to give Bush the Senate.  The small RI Republican base was dispirited anyway (lest we forget that Chafee was almost tea-partied out before it was cool;  He beat Laffey 53-47 in the primary, and that was only because of crossover support).  He was being squeezed hard from both sides and still got 47%.  

Brown is very likeable.  That's what he has going for him.  If he campaigns for the next 23 months and talks to every indy and indy-leaning Dem voter, he might have a chance.  

[ Parent ]
This seat could very well
Determine control.
[ Parent ]
Without a GOP Majority
Its hard to get people thinking of hypotheticals, much less voting on them.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent
[ Parent ]
There is a Democratic majority
Do MA voters want to keep it? Not hard.
[ Parent ]
What is the logic behind people saying
that Capuano would be the strongest candidate? Don't get me wrong, I love my congressman and would probably be willing to cut off an appendage if it meant that he would get to serve as a Senator, but what exactly is it about him that makes him so formidable. I understand that he's a good campaigner and really tough, but so was Virg Bernero. Plus, Capuano is extremely liberal, even for a Massachusetts Democrat, and I don't see how that makes him more electable than any of the other mentioned candidates. What specifically makes him stronger than someone like Kennedy or Market?

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
Markey*


Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
I think it might be the hype.
I've been led to believe that he would be a strong candidate. He seems
like he would be.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Aside
For what it is worth, I have heard that Virg Bernero was a terrible campaigner. (At least this time, though maybe that was your point?)
[ Parent ]
I can't imagine Kennedy, Frank, Patrick, or Markey running
General sentiment seems to be Capuano's the early front-runner, no? If that's the case, I expect a close race, but, unless Capuano can severely run-up Brown's low unfavorables, I suspect Brown can pull it out. I think Brown wins as long as his favorables are a net +5 or greater.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
I would not call Capuano frontrunner looking to the result of this poll

Nothing against him, but I see not this here.

I think it is time of talk about it, and the polls make talk to the people. I can imagine every one of them running, if they have they appear as the frontrunner in the next polls.

This poll give V Kennedy as frontrunner, but they are important politicians included not this poll.

I would promote more polls this winter before decide. It can be good for see to where break the people.

My wish would be no-one of the potential candidates tell not still and no-one tell yes still.

[ Parent ]
Disagree, I don't think Brown's favorables are the key at all......
Massachusetts is liberal and Democratic enough that even a personally popular Republican can be beaten.

I imagine that even if Scott Brown wins reelection, it will be by no greater than the 5-point margin by which he beat Coakley, and that's best-case in a Presidential year when Democrats are gunning for him.

And in any case I don't care what Brown's favorables are right now, it's way too early for that to matter.

Really, Brown should be sweating all the way to election day.  Even if he's up 10 in September 2012, he could crash in October, even late October, and narrowly lose.

That's the thing about representing a state that is chronically reflexively hostile to your party, you're never really safe until the polls have closed on election night.

Of course the above goes out the window if the Democratic nominee, whoever it is, runs a bad campaign.  I'm presuming that won't happen this time, that Democratic primary voters will be keen on who seems to have his act together.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I think the fourtunes of
any democrat in this race will depend on how well the national ticket does in 2012, which in itself will, of course, vary with how well the economy keeps recovering.  
Obama's turnout effect wont be as great in MA.
Obama doesn't bring the unique coalition to the polls here like he does in other states. Turnout will definately be high because its a presidental year, yet this wont be as significant as other states. This is because MA is an older, whiter (much whiter), and already heavily democrat state. Whereas say in NC and VA Obama brings people to vote that wouldn't otherwise, in MA there is already high turnout and has fewer of the people that Obama has unique appeal to.

Brown did sneak in from a special election, but it was a high profile affair in a politically accute state, so it wasn't a total fluke.

Nominating Frank would insure that every R in the state is motivated and scare off even some Dems.  

Democrats can definately win here, but people are fooling themselves if they're expecting an automatic, 10+ pick up.  

I'm expecting this is no better for us than a tossup, but also no worse than a tossup......
MA is Democratic and liberal enough that unless we have yet another Democratic nominee running a bad campaign, Scott Brown is never going to be truly safe; he'll be sweating all the way into election day.

But you're right that MA is older and whiter than many other Democratic states, with little room to jigger the turnout model any further.  And Obama won't campaign here anyway, except maybe one personal appearance solely to help the Democratic Senate nominee.  So it won't be getting the field resources of a battleground state.  And Brown presumably will run a good campaign, so we'll be sweating at least as much as he does.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I'm hoping for Capuano
He might end up flaming out on the campaign trail, he might not, but get a look at this performance. You can't deny he wouldn't be an effective Senator:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

I'd also guess that Capuano will be heavily pressured to run by the Dem establishment because eliminating his district will make every other Boston-area district safer without having to axe an incumbent, and all of the guys in adjacent districts with greater seniority will want that extra blue spread around to them.

Markey and Frank seem pretty happy with their ridiculous seniority in the House at this point, I don't think Kennedy would be up for a run or would actually have anything to offer besides her husband's name. Menino and Lynch are non-starters. Patrick's too busy being governor to run.

You can also make the argument that Capuano would've had a shot in the 2009 primary (and been a better GE candidate than Coakley by default) if the eastern MA machine had actually mobilized for him, instead of just letting Coakley play the inevitability card. I doubt they'll make that mistake twice, especially in a presidential year, and I think western MA would accept Capuano once they figured out how liberal he was. It's the more Catholic, blue collar parts in the middle that I'd be concerned about, but those areas will probably go for Brown anyway.  

They say that Vicki Kennedy was partially
instrumental in helping her husband defeat Romney in 1994. She was a helpful political assets to him, a lawyer, and has charisma. I think she has plenty to offer besides her husbands name.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
MA-Sen: Who Will Take On Scotty? | 48 comments

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