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SSP Daily Digest: 12/7

by: Crisitunity

Tue Dec 07, 2010 at 3:19 PM EST


DE-Sen: Here's an amusing look back at the Delaware race, where it turns out that Christine O'Donnell raised $7.3 million over the course of the campaign (a somewhat large improvement on her $63K from her previous Senate bid) and then proceeded to lose by 16 points. O'Donnell apparently had the same problem that I suspected that Sharron Angle did (though we don't have any confirmation on Angle yet)... there weren't any media outlets with available slots to pour all that late-breaking money into.

MO-Sen: Jim Talent has offered his timeline on publicly deciding whether or not to run for Senate (which has seemed to get less likely over the last few days, if you believe the scuttlebutt). He won't decide until the New Year, and possibly won't announce anything until the state GOP's Lincoln Day festivities in mid-February.

MT-Sen: PPP offered some GOP Senate primary numbers, although I'm not sure how useful they are given that Marc Racicot, the former Governor and RNC chair, eats up a lion's share despite not having really ever been associated with the race. (Although, who knows... maybe this will suddenly prompt him to get interested.) At any rate, the two guys with name rec, Racicot and Rep. Denny Rehberg, are at 40 and 37, respectively. The two little-known guys who are actually the ones running (so far), Steve Daines and Neil Livingstone, are at 5 and 4.

RI-Sen: Although John Robitaille seems to be getting all the attention in terms of the GOP's pick to challenge Sheldon Whitehouse, Warwick mayor Scott Avedisian is still stoking the fires of vague interest. Avedisian is a moderate and an ally of newly-elected Gov. Lincoln Chafee.

WA-Sen: The race against Maria Cantwell seems to already be a casualty write-off for the GOP, seeing as how the state's entire viable GOP bench (aka Rob McKenna) will most likely be running for Governor. The state GOP's usual M.O. in such situations is to turn to some random rich guy as a place-holder (see Mike McGavick, Cantwell's 2006 opponent, or oft-threatened but never-happened candidate John Stanton), but it may turn out that Clint Didier, the tea partier whose GOP primary bid against Dino Rossi didn't go anywhere and who's now interested in trying again, gets left holding the bag this time. Didier, who refused to endorse Rossi and castigated him at every turn, isn't likely to be able to count on much NRSC or even state GOP goodwill this time, though.

MN-Gov: Nothing like a little post-electoral cat fud, even if it means exiling pretty much your entire pantheon of elder statesmen. The state GOP just excommunicated more than a dozen key moderate Republicans who had jumped ship to support Independence Party candidate Tom Horner in view of Tom Emmer's extremism. These aren't just run-of-the-mill PCO-types, either: the list includes an ex-Senator (David Durenberger) and two ex-Govs (Arne Carlson and Al Quie). And if you're wondering how Emmer is faring in the court of public opinion amidst the recount non-drama, PPP's out with a snap poll: by a 68-22 margin, voters think it's time for Emmer to give up (which matches the 68-21 margin of people who think that Mark Dayton was the election's rightful winner).

OH-17: Wondering who the third-party candidate who fared the best was, in this year's House races? It was none other than ex-con ex-Rep. Jim Traficant, who picked up 16.1% of the vote against Tim Ryan, the best showing of any indie with both Dem and GOP opponents (and he did it without spending a penny). He fared better than Randy Wilkinson in FL-12, who ran a more credible campaign and was widely viewed as a potential spoiler. In fact, Wilkinson finished 3rd at 10.7%; some random conservative, Dan Hill, got 12% in NE-03 by running to Adrian Smith's right, although that was a race that Dems barely contested. What about MI-01's Glenn Wilson, who made waves for approximately one day with his pledge to spend $2 million of his own money (although it's dubious if he spent more than a fraction of that)? He barely registered, at 7%.

WV-01: Here's an unexpected comeback, and probably one that's not a good idea. Alan Mollohan, who couldn't survive a Dem primary and most likely wouldn't have won the general even if he'd gotten over the first hurdle, is publicly expressing his interest in running in 2012 for his old seat. He's opened an FEC account for '12 and has been reaching out behind the scenes.

NY-St. Sen.: This is basically a Hail Mary at this point, but when it's the chance to tie the state Senate, it's a chance you take. Craig Johnson officially filed an appeal yesterday of the judge's ruling certifying Jack Martins as winner in SD-7 (giving the GOP a 32-30 edge there). He's asking for a hand count, to see if any votes were missed in the state's switch this year to electronic voting machines. Given the recent abject fail in finding all the votes cast in Queens, it's not out of the realm of possibility.

Redistricting: The Fix has another installment in its ongoing redistricting previews, this time focusing on Georgia. The GOP-controlled state legislature should have little trouble adding a GOP-friendly 14th seat in Atlanta's northern tier of exurbs, where most of the state's growth has occurred. The real question will be whether they can do anything to turf out either of the two remaining Dems in slightly lean-Dem districts in south Georgia, Sanford Bishop or John Barrow? Although neither of their seats are truly minority-majority, the VRA might be implicated if their seats get messed with too much. Bishop's GA-02 is likely to be shored up in order to make freshman Austin Scott safer in the 8th. Barrow seems like an easier target, but to do so would not only risk VRA litigation but also make Jack Kingston's 1st less safe, meaning incumbent protection might be the result.

Demographics: There was a massive dump of U.S. Census data yesterday, although none of it is the actual hard count from 2010 (which is due by the end of the month, including state populations for reapportionment purposes). Instead, this is the Demographic Analysis (used to estimate undercounts in the actual count, although there won't be any adjustments made to the counts for redistricting purposes in this cycle). The big number was the total population estimate, ranging from 306 million to 313 million, with a midrange estimate of 308.5 million (which would put the average House district, for redistricting, at 709K). Also worth noting: Hispanics accounted for essentially the nation's growth in youth population in the last decade, and Hispanics have grown from 17% of the nation's under-20 population in 2000 to 22% now; without Hispanics, the number of young people would have actually gone down since 2000.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 12/7
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MN-Gov
And since, Emmer has now withdrawn 650 more challenges and the canvassing board will only be looking at 131, some of which include frivolous challenges.  

In the paper today, there were two reader's write (which are a few hundred words opinions they post from readers) with one being from someone who volunteered challenging ballots for Emmer and another who volunteered in some capacity but not for Emmer.   The guy for Emmer quit during day three because he got sick of being chastised and pressured for not challenging enough ballots.  The other guy who worked in some unspecified capacity said how he saw Emmer volunteers getting talked to by the higher up campaign staff about needing to challenge more all the time.


Big MN-Gov news!
I just got to work and saw the paper.  Top headline, Dayton Poised to Win Recount with the sub-headline, GOP source says Emmer to concede this morning at his Delano home.

This could all be over in a few short hours!!!


[ Parent ]
read some of the article
It'll be 10:30am ct.

[ Parent ]
GA- Redistricting: South GA VRA question
This is a question for the redistricting gurus here. I really dont see the GOP having a problem drawing either Barrow or Bishop out.

Can't they just lump all the Demcrats in South into one sprawling black majority VRA district?

To me this would solve all the GOPs problems. The district could run across GA from Savannah to Alabama taking in every African American community along the way in some sort of D+10 district.

This way the GOP shores up Scott and picks up another South Ga seat and avoids any VRA problems by creating another black majorty district. To me this is a no brainer win situation for them. Am I missing something on this? Has anyone drawn a district like I am taling about on the redistricting ap?

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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They run the risk
of having that district struck down as a racial gerrymander a la Miller v. Johnson. The weird thing about the interplay between the VRA and the 14th Amendment is that while you must draw a minority majority district if it is possible to make it compact and contiguous, but you must not if by drawing the district you would ignore traditional redistricting principles.

However, whether such a district would be defensible on the grounds that it was drawn with purely political motives (which would no doubt be true) is an interesting and different question. Probably something like that would be allowed for the same reason that the current NC-12 is allowed. Politics, of course, is a traditional redistricting principle of a sort.  


[ Parent ]
There are some reasons why that wouldn't work
It could be viewed as attempt to pack Black voters, which would be lawsuit territory. Besides that, there are far to many Black voters in South Georgia to throw into one district that stretches from one end of the state to the other.  

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
Assuming you are willing
to leave out Savannah, you can draw a district from Columbus to Augusta and pack in all of the black voters in between. It would be pretty effective.

[ Parent ]
But what would you do with Albany and Valdosta?


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Albany you can reach down and grab
As for points south: in my view the Republicans have smooth sailing in any district below 40% black in South Georgia.  

[ Parent ]
No, at least not just one.
Between Macon, Albany, Augusta, Columbus, and Savannah, plus lots of rural areas in between, there are just too many people to pack into one district.  Plus, I don't think there would be enough population south of this line to constitute two or certainly three districts for Austin Scott and Jack Kingston.  

I do think two VRA districts might be more feasible for them.  One includes Albany, Columbus and Valdosta.  The other Savannah, Augusta, maybe Hinesville.  Macon, Fort Valley, and the black parts of Warner Robins could go into either.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


[ Parent ]
Semi- Off Topic but
my GA state rep. switches parties.
http://onlineathens.com/storie...

I really don't see the electoral benefit to this. His district contains the University of Georgia and is bright blue. Question mark after question mark.

This is the sixth party switch in the  GA house since Nov. 2

And, to top it all off, he was just elected to the leadership of the Minority Caucus in the House

Republicans how have 114 seats out of 180. *sighs in frustration.


[ Parent ]
He's my state rep, too.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
I begin to think about the danger of lose

J Barrow too. And this would so close with the redistricting process.

So sad.


[ Parent ]
sorry, I write fast

would be

[ Parent ]
No doubt
he wants the juice that is part of the perks of being in the majority.  Either way, make sure you get his ass handed to him in 2012.  Find a Perriello-type guy to run against him on a populist platform and he should win.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I have just the guy in mind
In 2010, I was an field intern for Russell Edwards, who ran against Paul Broun Jr., one of the crazier of Republicans. Russell is running for treasurer of the state party for the next two years, but I really want our Athens field organizer to run; he's very smart, won't leave the party, and is good friends with many Athens pols. He's out of town, but as soon as he gets back, we're having a chat. haha

[ Parent ]
Seriously off-topic...
...but are you a graduate political science student?

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
No
I'm a freshman at UGA, poli-sci major, and am probably gonna run for Exec Board of the UGA Young Dems.

[ Parent ]
Okay, I thought you were someone I knew.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Good lord.
  What kind of crazy bills are going to be passed through the state legislature this session?

State Rep. Mike Jacobs is from a wealthy part of Dekalb County and was elected as Democrat in 2006, but quickly switched to the Republican party. I understand these rural switchers, but not the suburban ones.

http://www.blogfordemocracy.or...

24, Male, GA-05


[ Parent ]
That's pretty goddamn
infuriating. If you want to be a member of one party, run with that party during the election. It's one thing to switch after a long career and/or before an election, even if it's for no other reason than saving your own ass, but to do it right after an election, when the first party spent money on your candidacy, is an insult to a lot of people.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Yeah, definitely a switch for power.
Some (e.g. Golden, Powell) switched to save their asses, but ones like McKillip, Carter, and Jacobs did it for the power as their districts are blue (I assume Carter's is blue; it's Valdosta proper).

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
I would take happily a new VRA district in Georgia

but being realistic I think the republicans need not to do it. Then I think they will not do, because habitually the republicans are not generous with the political adversaries. Habitually the are not generous with many other republicans what tell not just the same (see republican primaries).

The article of the link about the redistricting of Georgia tell is mor likely they gerrymander not both districts (GA-02 and GA-12) but they are not reasons for think they will concede one district to the democrats.


[ Parent ]
RIP Elizabeth Edwards
A great woman has passed away.  

This is a sad day.
It all happened so fast.  :'(

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
So
saddened to hear that. She was truly a wonderful woman.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
And those poor kids.
First they lose a brother, and now they lose their mother.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I agree.
Losing a parent sucks at any age but certainly at a young age.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
And after all they went through
With John Edwards.  

[ Parent ]
I
don't think that's an un classy statement.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Meaning why mention it at all


[ Parent ]
I agree actually.
My opinion of John fell after the affair was exposed, and I felt sorry for Elizabeth.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
My thoughts exactly
The kids have been through far too much even before today.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
I think their brother died before they were born......
I understand the underage kids are 12 and 10, and John Edwards' older son died in the car crash before his 1998 election.  So the young kids never knew their brother and doubtlessly never had an emotional attachment to him as one normally would have to a sibling.

Not trying to belittle the significance of the son's death, it was a Godawful disaster, and I'm a typically paranoid dad myself and am in a state of constant vigilance looking out for their safety.

But the young kids now never mourned their brother's death like they will their mother's.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
RIP


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
RIP
It's stunning to think about how much she endured.  She was very inspiring and will be missed.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
RIP


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
she deserved better
nm

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
RIP
Elizabeth Edwards was such a kind and intelligent woman. She deserved so much better than what she got.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Cancer
is a horrible thing. It's taken many of my family members. RIP.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
What about Klobuchar?
Things can certainly change in a matter of two years, but she's blowing every other person out of the water. Her closet opponent is Pawlenty, who would lose by ten points. She is beating Norm Coleman by 14 points and Bachmann by 17 points. I am not sure if I expect her to win by as large of a margin as she did last time, but really, who cares if she wins by 15 instead of 20?

It's nice to see the Democrats won't have to sweat this seat that much, if at all, just like they won't have to worry about Cantwell's seat. I have no doubt the Republicans will try to take these seats, but I give them worse odds in these states than I give the Democrats in Texas. Hopefully, this makes defending the seats in Virginia, Montana, and Missouri just a little easier.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


Stabenow looks better too given the Obama numbers in MI
Probably. I'm sure we'll find out for sure soon enough.

[ Parent ]
Cook rankings
http://www.cookpolitical.com/c...

http://www.cookpolitical.com/c...

Not sure why they bothered doing the House given redistricting.


Wow
his senate ratings are more optimistic than mine. Then again I wrote my senate diary a few days after the election so I was really pessimistic. Though I threw Manchin and Ensign into the lean column while throwing Tester and McCaskill into toss up. By the way, he has Tester at Likely D right now!?

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Maybe
Rehberg and Racicot both aren't interested and that's what Cook is hearing.  It would make sense.  Rehberg is something of a jerk (he wrongfully criticized a fire department for incompetence) and he probably is poised to get a subcommittee chairmanship in the House.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Possibly
Interesting that he lists Kyl as a potential retirement. That seems to be catching on a bit.

[ Parent ]
Also, the possible Snowe retirement.
That would make more sense than a Kyl retirement.  She suffers from crippling back pain and is probably still marked after getting metaphorically beaten down by conservatives last year for being a "RINO."

If she retires, Dems gotta run Michaud or have a little chat with Cutler (who may just want to be Gov).

I also don't think WV is toss-up unless Capito is running for that.  From what I've heard, she is more likely to run for Governor.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Several Dems listed as potentials
Have already said they are running so it may not mean much. I guess there will be a couple at least though on either side. There always is.

[ Parent ]
Its not as much of a gimme
As some people here assume without Snowe. Democrats have had really terrible luck in statewide elections in Maine since the 1980s(no non-Presidential Democrat has won above 47% of the vote since 1988) and the Republicans have a very strong candidate in Senate President Kevin Raye, who narrowly lost to Michaud in 2002. He almost certainly would have won had their been an open seat in 2010, and is in good shape assuming he can get through a primary.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

[ Parent ]
with Obama coattails?


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Even with them
But he is a moderate, so a teabagger's challenge in Republican primary (especially in this, more conservative of 2 Maine's districts) is very likely. So, once again - he is better candidate for general election then for primary..

[ Parent ]
As usual some make sense
Others are bizarre. I would swap MO and WV for instance. No way is Menendez that solid. And Tester is far more vulnerable than the others in that column.

[ Parent ]
idk if optimistic is the right word...
Unless you are most of the incumbents.  I agree the Menendez is not solid, but neither are Corker, Kyl or (after Wisconsin '10) Kohl.

[ Parent ]
Kohl has always won with bigger margins than Feingold
He even got 58% in 1994.

[ Parent ]
Here's what I'd like to know:
who is going to challenge Menendez? New Jersey isn't as Democratic as some think, but it also doesn't appear to be Republican enough for a candidate to win statewide unless there are unusual circumstances. It's probably even harder if the candidate is a nobody.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Im intersted in that too
Kim Guadagno, Tom Kean Jr, and Joe Crowley (rich guy) have been thrown around, but have they publicly expressed interest? Who do people in NJ think will run?  

[ Parent ]
I think the republicans have very few candidates what can endanger seriously R Menendez

I doubt seriously if they are someone what can defeat him. Some more can make the race be competitive and end in single digits, but I think these are not. The people what can endanger R Menendez seems discretly far of the race until now.

[ Parent ]
I was optimistic before and am moreso after seeing Cook's list......
The only real head-scratcher to me is Tester as "likely Dem," better than even lean Dem.

What makes Cook's MT rating even a bigger head-scratcher to me is that I wouldn't call him any safer than Manchin.  Speaking of which, I'd put Manchin at no less than lean Dem, the tossup rating is the 2nd-biggest head-scratcher in Cook's ratings.

The 3rd-biggest head-scratcher is Lieberman at "lean Dem," which potentially makes sense only if Cook is rating Lieberman personally and not our party's chances of electing a Democrat--whether that's Lieberman running as a Democrat, or another Democrat.

All in all I look at Cook's list and think we're more likely than not to hold the Senate.  Nebraska easily is the most likely seat to switch parties on either side, but after that we're as likely to take Scott Brown's or John Ensign's seat as we are to lose any other Dem-held seat.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Does Cook know something more about MT?
If Rehberg / Raicot ain't running, Tester would be a heck of a lot safer.

I'm also most surprised w/r/t Kent Conrad as likely D.

Under these ratings, I see possibilities for anything from a 5 seat loss to a 2 seat gain. (51.5 seats +/- 3.5)


[ Parent ]
Manchin is in a similar boat, except he already proved his remarkable strength...
...in a state that is not much different ideologically than Montana.

Manchin won in an 11-point blowout, 54-43.  This in the toughest year possible.

Tester barely survived a Burns surge in anti-Republican surge year.  Granted Burns was an incumbent, but he was personally damaged in addition to being hurt by the "R" next to his name.

I think realistically Manchin is likely to beat Capito by at least as much as Tester would beat an also-ran.  Manchin is just that personally popular, and he just proved it a month ago.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
She is almost as personally popular
Her favorability rating is 77%, his is 80%.  

[ Parent ]
Manchin
just got out of a very bruising negative campaign while SMC has yet to be defined. Her numbers could still drop after the course of a campain. Manchin on the other hand has already had the kitchen sink thrown at him.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
John Raese
Was someone many people did not know before the election, and he had many things to make them not like him. They already knew they liked Manchin, and nothing Raese said could change that. SMC, like Manchin, is someone they already know and like. This would be an issues focused race, since both candidates have invincible popularity, but can be dragged down by their party, like Manchin. Can Manchin distance himself from national Dems after 2 years in the Senate? IDK, but Capito, Clark Barnes, and the Ron Johnson's of WV will be watching in the next few months.  

[ Parent ]
Someone many did not know?
He has run statewide 4 times.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
This was the fourth time,
the first two were in the 1980's and the third one was unremarkable with him getting 33% or so against Byrd. How many candidates losing in non-legendary 1980's races can the average American name?

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
Well, he did run against the legendary Byrd.
Also, I recall you are Montanan, correct?  Any trial balloons out there about MT-Sen?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Not Montanan, but deeply involved in MT
politics. Basically everyone is waiting for Rehberg's decision and that really sucks the energy out of the race right now. There's no strong indication either way- he definitely wants to run for something, and probably rather for a legislative do-nothing job like he has now than for an executive job he actually has to work in (Rehberg has accomplished NOTHING in his 10 years in Congress. Really. With that I'm not even judging his ideology, he has just done nothing at all except for casting votes).

But Tester is personally popular, so no one knows if Rehberg wants to give up his safe House seat for a shot at taking out a popular incumbent.

If Rehberg runs, the field will be cleared for him. If he doesn't run, the GOP runs a sacrifical lamb like Daines or some Tea Party insurgent who will be crushed by Tester.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)


[ Parent ]
Yeah
But early polls still show he was not well known. Remember, his 2 serious bids were in the 1980s, and voters have very short memories.  

[ Parent ]
Yeah, I see.
He did start off as generic R, little doubt.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I think

I think Cook can see Rehberg closer to the gubernatorial race (without risk for him), and surely Cook take not into account Racicot.

Now Racicot seems far of the race but I think the GOP will do high efforts recruiting Racicot and Rehberg for both races. With Racicot they have the chance of win both races, without Racicot, the race for governor is easier and Rehberg can go here and wait because Baucus is not very strong.


[ Parent ]
I don't get
why everyone thinks Manchin is so vulnerable, even if he does face SMC. She might be popular, but so is he. Plus, he's the incumbent, and 2012 is likely to be better for Democrats than this year, where he won by a very nice margin, even if it's not really a good year. He should fight, of course, but I'm far more worried about other seats.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Not in WV
Remember, Obama, with his 30% approval rating, will be at the top of the ticket in 2012.  

[ Parent ]
If
you couldn't do it this year it isn't going to happen. The only way it's competitive is if SMC runs, and that's very, very, very unlikely. Even if she runs its no worse than a tossup.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Obama was 30% there a month ago and Manchin won by 11......
If Obama couldn't bring down Manchin last month, he won't bring him down in 2012.

And with the new dynamic of a GOP House and an accordingly altered Democratic agenda, there won't be any truly difficult floor votes to use against Manchin.

I bet right now Manchin would beat Capito convincingly and the polling at no point during the campaing would show "tossup."

WV might no longer like national Democrats, but they still like their own.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
When Manchin ran though
Was the name Barrack Obama right above his? No. Was John Raese a terrible opponent? Yep. In WV, does a Republican with equal favorability beat a Dem in a federal race? Probably. Remember, Manchin also ran against national Democrats, said he would not vote for Harry Reid, and he did vote for Harry Reid. I can already see Capito or Barnes ad: "Joe Manchin hasn't been in the Senate for too long, but he has already broken the promises he made to us 2 years ago. He said he wouldn't vote for an anti-coal Senate majority leader. After only X amount of days in the Senate, Manchin voted for Harry Reid, who said (play clip of Harry Reid saying "Coal makes us sick"). Joe Manchin broke his promise to WV after only X days in the Senate. Can we really trust Joe Manchin for 6 more years?" or something to that effect.  

[ Parent ]
Nah
"Joe Manchin hasn't been in the Senate for too long, but he has already broken the promises he made to us 2 years ago. He said he wouldn't vote for an anti-coal Senate majority leader. After only X amount of days in the Senate, Manchin voted for Harry Reid, who said (play clip of Harry Reid saying "Coal makes us sick"). Joe Manchin broke his promise to WV after only X days in the Senate. Can we really trust Joe Manchin for 6 more years?" or something to that effect.

You can try but it isn't going to work. No one knows or cares who Harry Reid is. Manchin has a solidly pro-coal record he can run on, and voting for Reid won't hurt him and SMC won't run, not a chance of it at all. Likely to safe D unless SMC gets in, and then no more than a tossup and with a D tilt.  

Was the name Barrack Obama right above his? No. Was John Raese a terrible opponent?

Manchin was a dem, so is Obama, everyone knew it thanks to Raese's ads and they did not care. Your not going to do better than Raese in 2010, probably a C to D list nobody.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


[ Parent ]
Raese
Do you realize how terrible a candidate he was? If we had presented a credible alternative to Manchin, someone who voters can feel comfortable voting for, we would have probably won. Your right, no one knows who Harry Reid is, but all they will have to show is a few of his comments on coal and Manchin saying he would not vote for an anti-coal majority leader. Manchin was able to effectively distance himself from Dem leaders in 2010, but can he do that after being in the Sen for 2 years?  

[ Parent ]
Yes.
Yes I do. Raese wasn't a good candidate, but you realize he was probably the best you could have gotten behind SMC, your bench there isn't good. If you couldn't do it this year then it isn't happening.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Your argument is lame and extraordinarily weak......
Voters don't care if Obama's name is on the ballot.  That just doesn't matter.  Coattails come from either a wave election or a turnout gap.  Your party just had both in WV and still failed by a large margin.  You got as much of a referendum on Obama in WV as you'll ever get, and you failed by a large margin.  There's not going to be anything more than that in 2012.

Manchin is going to coast, and realistically won't even have anything more than a sacrificial lamb challenging him.  WV Republicans are hurting after losing to Manchin so big, and no one of prominence is going to go down that road again.  Certainly not Capito, especially when the Governorship is a better target for her.  And there's no one else.  Beyond Capito, there's the "rich guy outsider" model, and that's exactly what just failed.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Well You Could Try the Rich Guy West Virginian Model
I think some of you are vastly underplaying just how poor a candidate John Raese was. There were essentially 3 ads run in that race. Manchin=Obama is the only thing Raese ran (and good grief is there more than can be run against Manchin, especially if certain investigations don't turn out well). The Democrats ran Raese = crazy, and Raese = rich, out-of-touch Floridian. If the Republicans had a better candidate, Manchin could've lost.

If SMC (a sane, popular politician with a well-recognized WV pedigree) ran against Manchin in a year with much higher turnout and a low vote for Obama (I presume he won't campaign in WV in 2012 as he didn't in 2008) and played up a corruption angle against Manchin, the new senator could be in a great deal of trouble. Luckily for him, she's very unlikely to run.


[ Parent ]
The point
isn't that he's guaranteed to win even if SMC runs. It's that the anti-Obama sentiment in the state has already probably had its biggest effect on a race, the same one which he just spanked his opponent, as flawed as he was, by a very solid margin. Different things could be the deciding factor, but anti-Obama mood isn't likely to be one of them.

Is it going to really get that much worse for Democrats in West Virginia in the state? Probably not for their own, because the people that just voted in this last election weren't happy with Obama yet still pulled the level for Manchin. There's always the chance that they could try to tie him to Obama and any other unpopular people or unpopular ideas, but I don't see it sticking.

Also, what could come out about Manchin? What scandals is he mixed up in?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
If that is the most
powerful case that they can make against him, then he should be fine. That alone isn't likely to destroy any goodwill people have towards him. It might be successful if it's part of a sustained campaign to define him to voters, but he's already defined. Will they be able to change a lot of minds in two years time unless Manchin reverses his positions on a lot of issues?

Anyway, haven't most of the anti-Obama voters, who are also probably the most pro-Republican voters, already came out in full force? It's always possible to get a more unfriendly climate for a party, but it'd be harder to have one for Democrats than this past year. Yet, Manchin still won by a very solid margin. People seem to view him differently than Obama, even though they are from the same party. According to the exit polls, he received 65 percent of the vote from people who somewhat disprove of Obama (17 percent of the population) and even managed to receive 29 percent of the vote from people that strongly disapprove of Obama (52 percent of the population). And while it's not unreasonable to expect even more very anti-Obama, very pro-Republican voters to show up in 2012, you forget that there will be even more pro-Obama, very Democratic voters that year, too. The latter won't probably won't be as numerous as the former, but it's not Manchin has hit his ceiling in absolute votes.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
They don't have to make
People not like Joe Manchin. Joe Manchin underperformed his favorability rating by over 25 points. They just have to make them think Manchin is too close to party leaders, while also presenting a credible alternative, which they did not do this year.

[ Parent ]
Well,
he was never going to get any percentage of the vote resembling his favorability rating, unless the Republicans pick a random person off of the street, and even then that person would probably get 35 percent.

I don't deny that they will try to do that, and that it will probably have some effect. What I am saying is that it's probably not going to matter in the end, because people seem to like and/or support the guy, even a pretty sizable chunk those that are angry at the federal government, that think taxes should be cut, that are just against Obama and the Democrats for whatever reason. And those who like Manchin and/or approve of his performance but who wouldn't vote for him because it'd be a vote for all of the other Democrats seem to have already factored into this race but not made a difference in the end.

Basically, I think the strategy you describe isn't going to work enough to get them the seat.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
I think it's a Likely D race
Keep in mind, Jay Rockefellar staged a 2-to-1 rout in '08, despite Obama losing atop the ticket by a hefty margin. Over 100K McCain voters, or 15% of the total electorate, voted a McCain/Rockfellar ticket. In '10, Manchin should be even more popular than Rockefellar was '08, and, though Shelley Moore Capito would surely out-perform Jay Wolfe, I think she'll realize the battle is too uphill in unseating Manchin, and she'll pass. Should she run, I think you'll see a single-digit race, but, let's face it - Manchin will run against Obama again, and he'll win the conservaDems Capito would need to prove competitive. It'd probably be a 54-46 race.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
And luckily for Obama,
West Virginia isn't even remotely a must-win state. That gives Manchin the room to throw some verbal bombs his way and not really mess with his reelection chances, should he need to do so.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Luckily
for Democrats unlike in what used to be traditionally Democratic Arkansas, a large amount of the people there are private sector union members serving in the coal mines and in what ever steel mills are still left there so the populist rhetoric Democrats often use is still receptive here. Manchin should watch his back, but if he could win in a year like this, he stands a good chance of surviving 2012.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
I guess Purdue and Nixon might technically both qualify as toss-ups
But Purdue is surely in far more trouble than Nixon at this point.  

[ Parent ]
Nixon is leans at least per PPP
Tossups aren't created equally though as we know.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, I think I'd put Nixon at Lean Dem as well


[ Parent ]
I'd be tempted to have WV-Gov at Tossup
But I guess that and the Manchin ranking depend on what Capito does.

[ Parent ]
I think Cook is taking redistricting into account
Hence his listing of Latham as lean R, for example.  

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
It is taken into account
But seems to me far too many variables to mean much right now.

[ Parent ]
Yeah
But it's all kind of awkward though. Maybe Fahrenholt finds himself in a majority-White seat based in the whiter parts of Corpus Christi and the coast between CC and Galveston, while one of the new districts (or the old TX-27, if you think of him in TX-33) winds up below him in Brownsville. He wouldn't be anywhere close to toss-up in that case, though he might be vulnerable to a primary?

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
Corrine Brown at Likely D?
Isn't FL-03 protected under the VRA? How could Democrats possibly lose this one in 2012, even with the new redistricting commission? Brown herself may not be safe, but there's guaranteed to be a Jacksonville-based safe D seat.

A lot of odd rankings, but that one ranks as the oddest.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
Yup
I only barely scanned it. Not worth the bandwidth right now.

[ Parent ]
That seat actually isn't VRA protected
Florida doesn't require pre-clearance, save for a few counties. Under the new redistricting regulations, FL-3 would have to be dismantled and made more compact.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
Nope
Preclearance doesn't have anything to do with this. VRA-compliant congressional districts are enforced throughout the country due to Section 2 of the VRA. Preclearance is Section 5 and has to do to with voting laws.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
The House ratings show how difficult it will be to get back the House
I mean, Democrats will need to win back seats like MI-01, MI-07, NH-01, NH-02, PA-07, NY-19, NY-20, PA-08, and AZ-01 to win back the House and Cook has them all either in Lean Republican or Likely Republican.  

[ Parent ]
Plus, you know, most of these districts
will be changing.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Here's Cook's first ratings for the 2010 cycle: as you can see, quite a few things changed
http://cookpolitical.com/chart...

For instance, 19 of the 28 Likely Democrats lost.  In fact several Dems who were unseated were rated as safe back then (Salazar, Boyd, Hare, Oberstar, Taylor, Skelton, Eldridge, Pomeroy, Wilson, Murphy, Spratt, Hersh-Sandlin, Davis, Ortiz, Boucher).  

Basically, a lot of things are going to change.  The map may get better or worse but nothing is set in stone yet at all.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
To be fair
In June, most people still thought Etheridge, Ortiz, and Taylor were safe Dem. Up until 2 months ago, Oberstar was considered safe.  

[ Parent ]
That's actully my point
I'm not trying to bash Cook here: if I were making ratings back then I would have had them all as safe.  Things will change and a lot of the Dems/ Republicans he may have as safe today will lose in two years.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
The rating is very interesting

First we must take into account the "NOTE". Some rating can change "dramaticaly" but still I appreciate the effort they do.

And can be surpresively good because we still remain with the pessimistic views of the last cycle.

Looking to the gubernatorial rating too

http://www.cookpolitical.com/c...

I would tell:

- NE Heineman will not challenge Nelson like he tell.

- IN Bayh can be close to the gubernatorial race.

- WV Capito can be closer to the race for senate. I think Capito will not be enough strong for run against Manchin.

- MT Cook may think Rehberg is closer to the gubernatorial election, while Racicot can be far of run.

- ND Schafer can be far of run.

- MO Cook feel higher danger for Nixon than for McCaskill(but surely not from the people what sound currently for the race).


[ Parent ]
I wonder if Talent's angling more at a cabinet berth...
... anticipating an Obama loss.

He's very close to Mitt Romney and although the odds of a Romney win in '08 (in the GE) were fairly low, I remember reading he was a likely cabinet pick should Romney win.

He narrowly missed out as Labor Secretary in Bush's first term.  


Is he even a possibe VP?


[ Parent ]
I don't see who he would help
The VP is usually picked to balance the ticket, and I can't see Talent balancing anyone out. Romney would need a socially conservative Southerner (Barbour?) to quell that base's fear of Mormonism. Huckabee would need a fiscal hawk from outside the South (Daniels? Thune?), and Palin would need a Washington-insider type or a moderate but there's no way she would pick either. I could see her picking Rick Perry or Mike Pence. Gingrich would need someone younger and fresher (Rubio?), Thune would go for someone with executive experience, and Daniels, who has the luxury of being a fairly balanced candidate, could conceivably pick anyone.

Then there's people like Christie and Scott Brown who have gotten a lot of press and would be strong VP candidates. And there's also the chance that one of the runners-up for the nomination gets VP in a unity act, like Reagan-Bush or Kerry-Edwards.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
Christie
is probably not going to accept any VP offer. I don't know if he relishes the governor's office, but its probably better than the vice presidency. Especially since Christie has become a conservative reformer in the eyes of many.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Massachusetts law forbids running for multiple offices
So if Brown were the Veep he'd have to give up his senate seat.  This is the main reason why Kerry withdrew from the 2008 race after putting his toes in the water.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
Christie
What he says is right. I feel bad for the poor guy who gets stuck with him as their VP. Christie would not be good at playing second fiddle to anyone. I was actually just thinking about making a post like this over the weekend. This is what I thought out:
Romney-
Has to pick a religious Christian southerner, just what you said. Huck would be good, but I think Jindal is the best bet. Romney fits 3 of 4 GOP stereotypes, old, white, and rich. Jindal is young, Indian-American, and middle-class. Plus, Romney has a weakness on HCR, one of Jindal's strengths.

Huck-
Needs someone good on fiscal issues, and who is not associated with the religious right like Pence. I'll agree with your choices of Daniels and Thune, and also add Scott Walker, who, even though he would only be a 2 yr governor, is strong on fiscal issues.

Palin- We agree on a lot. Some names that would be good would be Lugar (he's probably too old though, and would never be crazy enough to take it), Chuck Grassley (I could actually see him doing it), and Judd Gregg (again, would never take it).

Daniels- Would need someone younger and more interesting. I could see him picking Jindal, as they may have a friendship from the when they both served in the Bush admin, Marco Rubio, Susana Martinez, or, my favorite dark-horse VP pick, Cathy McMorris-Rodgers.

But, as for Talent, I can see him having a top cabinet position on Romney's admin, but not on a pres ticket.  


[ Parent ]
Lugar
I can definitely see a Palin-Lugar ticket existing.  Lugar seems like a parallel Biden, only instead of gaffes, he's just boring.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Nah
He's also nearly 80. Don't get me wrong he's still youthful but no way he gets VP. He was a potential SoS for Obama, but that's going to be the last time he is a speculated candidate for any higher office. Besides I'm pretty sure he wouldn't want to be VP under Palin.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
consider it from another light
the economy is in shambles, 16+ unemployment, obama BARELY gets the nomination while palin waltzes through.  palin offers the spot to lugar as an old white FP guy to balance out the ticket.  despite age and all other concerns, he knows obama is DOA in november, palin is essentially the president elect (ughhhhh, scary even to think about) and that he may be the only thing that stops her from nuking china, iran or New England.  if it was me, the choice would be clear, take the spot and pray the chaos can be controlled.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
That
is quite the scenario and if that comes to be true then I suppose Lugar could be a good possibility. But that scenario is not that likely, hope not at least.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I don't think so either
it as a logical extreme of a republican Best Case Scenario.  However, I still think in the event that she's nominated, it seems much likelier than not that she wins (polling +10 points ahead, despite obama attacking her like reid attacked angle for months) it might seem logical to join the team to attempt to limit palin's chaos, than risk wimps like pawlently or romney get the slot.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
AFAIK, palinlugar.com is still available
To me, it's not worth the $10 ($5 X 2yr) lottery ticket.

[ Parent ]
In that scenario,
I imagine the establishment Republicans will figure out someone besides Palin to support, even if they are also associated with the Teabagger. There's a limit to what they can do, because the people ultimately decide, but they can do a lot to withhold support. And while Teabaggers aren't the most methodical thinkers in the world, I could see them deciding to support someone who isn't Palin but who is still acceptable to them because they realize she might not win, even if the chance of that is very small, and they want Obama out so badly they are willing to do whatever it takes.

Like I indicated, they might not be able to stop her, but if it looks like Obama might be beatable, the establishment in the Republican party will do everything they can to try and kill her chances.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
No chance, Lugar too old, and more importantly Palin will endorse his primary opponent......
Palin will openly oppose Lugar's reelection, that's almost a given after seeing what she did this last round.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I'd be skeptical of any old guard Republican on Palin's ticket
If she's the nominee, the Republican establishment is going to be running for the hills, and anticipating a disaster (rightly or not), most ambitious Republicans will probably demure from a vice presidential nod. Moreover, Palin seems personally likely to pick someone equally crazy who backs up her political beliefs and worldview. Someone like John Bolton.

And no, I'm not kidding.  


[ Parent ]
I agree.
If you'd like a good laugh, read the link from Red State below that describes why Donald Rumsfeld and, yes, John Bolton would have been a dream ticket in 2008.

http://archive.redstate.com/bl...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
I can't fathom Palin selecting an establishment figure, let alone a moderate one
The irony is, just four years after John McCain selected her for VP, she might well pick her own old, white guy for her #2 slot. If I had to make a prediction, though, I'd wager her long list probably looks something like...

Rudy Giuliani (if she wants a moderate pick, or, if national security becomes a hotter issue.)
John Kasich (if Ohio becomes the most key swing state.)
Susana Martinez (if targeting the Hispanic vote is her big strategy.)
Mike Pence (if she wants a fellow Tea Partier she's comfortable with.)
Rick Perry (same.)
Rick Santorum (same, or, if she's inane enough to think Santorum helps in Pennsylvania.)
Michael Steele (if she wants to throw the biggest hail mary of all and target the black vote.)

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
If Republicans run Palin-Steele in 2012
I give up. Trump-Bloomberg FTW.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
WV-01
Actually I think Mollohan is the ideal candidate to try and win that seat back (if the seat keeps its current form). Fact is, he didn't take the primary threat seriously enough last year - he only got into campaign mode very, very late. As it turned out, too late. Both his name recognition and fund-raising are likely to be much better than any other possible Democratic candidate.

He was personally scandal-plagued which was a problem, and in fact I think Oliverio...
...is a better bet.  I don't see how he'd be any weaker in November than Mollohan, and he doesn't have any of the personal baggage Mollohan has.

But honestly I'm sure there are plenty of Democrats who would have realistic path to victory.  WV is conservative, but it's still Democratic and has a deep bench.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Oliverio? Egads, No
Quite apart from his horrible, pandering, patriarchal right-wing politics, he had no on-the-ground campaign. I suppose that's not shocking since he'd specialized in a career of running campaigns against established Democrats like Ken Hechler and Alan Mollohan. But if you think that having a ground game matters in the slightest, you don't want him as the candidate.


[ Parent ]
I
think we can do better. Mollohan has a lot of baggage and is far from an ideal candidate. I don't think he was necessarily caught off guard, I remember a lot of coverage of the race. I think he would have lost this year as well had he been the nominee. I'm not saying go with this years nominee but like clone said the bench is plenty big, go with someone new. Maybe get someone out of the gubernatorial field, the SoS or House Speaker.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Not a Deep Bench in 2012
Not if you are talking about higher-ups in state politics. Most better known names are going to be running for governor.

And he really doesn't have much baggage (though sure, Republicans did all they could to make smoke look like fire). And believe me, he was caught off guard. The DC press pointed out how on paper this race could be a problem, sure, but he failed to do anything about it until the last couple of months before the primary - and it's hard to get an organization in place that quickly, especially if you haven't had to bother with running a real race in ages.  


[ Parent ]
Michigan Presidential News
At what has to be the peak of tea party influence, a PPP poll taken December 3-6 in Michigan pairing up Obama with Romney, Gingrich, Palin and Huckabee shows only one of these races being competitive at the moment:

Obama: 47%
Romney: 43%

Obama: 51%
Huckabee: 39%

Obama: 52%
Gingrich: 37%

Obama: 56%
Palin: 35%

http://www.freep.com/article/2...



This probably means Stabanow is in good shape
Obama's numbers have usually run a little behind Democratic Senators.

[ Parent ]
Yes
I was rather surprised at how good the numbers look, and it's definitely good for Stabenow.  That said, I would bet money that he's more popular, here, than she is, if only slightly.

The state GOP better get cracking and find a viable candidate, that's for sure.  I was surprised to find as high as unemployment here has been and as unpopular as the current governor has become, that we are still supporting national Dems at such high numbers.  I mean, this has been usual of Michigan since at least the early 90's, but we've been in some pretty freaky political times, lately.  We don't mind splitting a ticket at the state level (just look at what happened where local Republicans won EVERY state-wide seat).


[ Parent ]
will the GOP call Mike Cox
they're looking for Mike Cox, can anyone find Mike Cox?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Am I the only person...
... who thought that Mike Cox had a face that screamed "douchebag"?

(And yes, I get your joke :P)


[ Parent ]
I do too
But I think he might want to have that checked by a doctor...

[ Parent ]
i bought season 3 of the simpsons online
during black friday and it came last weekend, so i'm still in a simpsons mood.  5 points to anyone who remembers what flanders did for work before opening the leftoriam (NO PEEKING!)

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Oh children…
He was a pharmacist. Easy. Here's a question, without looking up which US President does Homer have a picture with? I own all Simpsons DVD's, yes I'm a nerd.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Gerald Ford.
He moved across the street from the Simpson family after George H.W. Bush moved out. He and Homer were supposed to enjoy some beer and nachos during the football game.

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
yep
when i saw that episode the other day i couldn't believe it, it just doesn't fit.  you are 10 points away from a towel with my face on it (reference to King of the Hill in case you thought i was insane).

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
wrong citation
i meant Xavier Renegade angel, not KOTH.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Thought?
This guy has proven himself to be a douchebag on numerous occasions.  He was the slimiest of the crowded field for governor, played dirty, and got third place after originally assumed to be the frontrunner, early on.  

The very best part of the GOP primary was seeing him and his allies spend all that money and come in behind Hoekstra.  He may not be pariah, at the moment, but he's pretty damned closed.

Hoekstra would be an excellent opponent, the only one with any chance of winning if you ask me.  Miller is old news, here.


[ Parent ]
No, I mean he literally LOOKED like a douchebag
His face reminded me of every asshole frat guy I ever met in college.  

[ Parent ]
Yuck
I'd rather Hoekstra than Cox. My first choice is Miller though.  

[ Parent ]
Report: Emmer to concede Wednesday morning
Republican Tom Emmer will concede the Minnesota govenror's race to DFLer Mark Dayton on Wednesday morning, according to a KSTP-TV news report.

http://www.startribune.com/pol...

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan


Cool beans.
I guess his gambit to try to buy time so that Paw could get a brief trifecta failed miserably.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I will actually give Emmer the benifit of the doubt
He let the legally mandated recount happen and then conceded when he did not win.The only ones talking about dragging out the recount to keep Pawlenty in power were paranoid Democrats (including myself) and a few delusional Republicans. Emmer said all along he would concede if he could not win.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Anyone know who is switching in MS tomorrow?
http://majorityinms.com/2010/1...

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

are there any statewide Ds left?
or perhaps Mississippi's last Dem house member?  unlikely, but the worst would probably be former AG Mike Moore, switching so he can be governor.  once again, unlikely (maybe .0001% chance) but that would sting.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
AG Jim Hood
Can't imagine he's switching, but if so, it'd be a BFD.  

[ Parent ]
There's the
Transportation Commission and the Public Service Commission.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Commenters say that most likely
it's some guy on the Public Service Commission named Brandon Presley.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
i get that you play up any party switch
as momentum for your party, but really?  Public Service commissioner?  does that matter in terms of party politics?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
If the public service commission is all it is
then no.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

[ Parent ]
Any chance it's a State Senator?
That's big news (at least on a state level) if it is, as that would flip control of the chamber to Republicans. Democrats currently have a 27-25 majority, and the Republican Lt. Gov. could break a 26-26 tie.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Apparently it's a statewide office.
And Jim Hood is unlikely to switch.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I'm watching the tax package vote to see what Senators think they are vulnerable in 2012.
Bill Nelson's supporting it - is it cause he's vulnerable, or there's some wealthy areas in Florida?  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

You bet there are wealthy areas of FL.
Quite a few.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Probably both.
There are plenty of strong Republicans on the Florida bench and it's a very fiscally conservative state with plenty of wealthy areas.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
if this passes
you can bet Bernie Sanders is going to be livid about it.  this will probably be a good few months for him.

http://www.aolnews.com/surge-d...

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.


Dems need more viral moments.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
P.S.
I know he's not a Dem, but he caucuses with them.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
demints saying he'll filibuster
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

i'm almost wondering if this is clever strategy.  obama says compromise.  republicans agree.  then, right before it happens, tea party republicans destroy it over reasons that seem trivial and even hypocritical (tax cut are not deficit, but unemployment is, etc etc).  obama gets credit for trying to compromise and republicans fail when no new tax cuts are passed.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.


[ Parent ]
It's only Demint
and his cabal plus a divided Dem caucus.  I doubt that will derail this, but who knows.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Can Jim Demint and Bernie Sanders work together?
wouldn't that be a hoot if they joined in a fillibuster.

the MSM narrative is already making the President look like a genius.  


[ Parent ]
Demint
Demint knows it will pass; he's just going to make noise so that he can stay 'pure'.  If they needed his vote, I suspect that they'd be able to get it.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

[ Parent ]
He knows that if all GOP'ers stay silent...
...or are supportive, it probably won't pass 'cos everyone will know how the president got totally rolled.

[ Parent ]
My hunch is the following Sens vote "no"...
D - (Feinstein, Boxer, Udall (CO), Coons, Inoyue, Akaka, Durbin, Harkin, Landrieu, Mikulski, Cardin, Levin, Franken, Lautenberg, Menendez, Bingaman, Udall (NM), Dorgan, Brown, Wyden, Merkley, Reed, Whitehouse, Leahy, Sanders, Murray, Rockefellar, Kohl, Feingold)

R - (Bunning, Vitter, Voinovich, DeMint, Thune)

Meaning, a 66-34 win for the president, with Democratic caucus narrowly opposing it at 27-29.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
Not a Surprise
But the big question remains - just when will the next race for governor be? I think that'll have a major effect on who is in the fields on both sides of the aisle.

[ Parent ]
Well
Tomblin wants it in 2012, and he has the final say. The legislature seems to want it in 2011 (Since many of the candidates who might run could get a free shot in 2011)  

[ Parent ]
I'm seeing more Matt Blunt ads
in the Google adspace area.  Is he trying to come out of the shadows to run for Senate?  His website is small and only contains fluff stuff on his record.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Has there ever been a father-son Senate combo?
That would be pretty cool, although with Matt's record as governor, not likely.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Yup, I'm seeing
Matt Blunt ads too.

I would have thought that his name was trashed after his unsuccessful term, but who knows.  


[ Parent ]
Matt Blunt
could never be elected to the Senate.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

[ Parent ]
His best chance
to go to Washington would have been for him to run for the open MO-7 seat this time around.  He may have won that.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

[ Parent ]
Santorum may not run should Palin pull the trigger
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballo...

I suppose that's good news for Palin and Huck, given Santorum would just siphon-off more of the religious right vote in Iowa, giving Romney the license to win with 35%.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


Santorum wouldn't siphon off anything......
He's way too weak, way to small-time, to siphon off anyone else's votes.  He'd do about as well in Iowa as Chris Dodd did on our side last time.  And that could be the case even if Palin and Huck both decline to run!  Pretty much a majority of the known hopefuls would have to decline to run for Santorum to register significant votes in Iowa or anywhere else.  He's a nobody.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
MI-Sen: PPP Stabenow Numbers
Link: http://www.publicpolicypolling...

Candice Miller looks like the toughest opponent for Stabenow, trailing her by 2 but with +15 favorables. Pete Hoekstra, a more likely candidate, trails by only 1 but his favorables are underwater. Terri Lynn Land trails by 4, I don't know how serious she is about getting in the race.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


One problem for Miller...
is she now has a record for being a very conservative representative.  SoS doesn't get too political...people just care about how long they have to wait to renew their drivers license.  Miller is probably the most conservative current representative.  This could turn off moderate independents.  I don't see Miller running anyway.

I don't think Terri Lynn Land will run either.  If she had been smart, she would've run to replace Vern Ehlers.  With her name recognition, she would've been the favorite.  

I'm a little surprised they didn't poll Mike Rogers.  I've heard him mentioned as a possibility.  


[ Parent ]
ME-Sen: LePage endorses Snowe
That was quick--she must be worried to be circling the wagons so early.

Link: http://www.myfoxmaine.com/news...

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


It won't stop them from targeting her.
They've been aching to go after her for a year.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]

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