MO-Sen, MO-Gov: Talent Leads GOP Senate Primary

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (11/29-12/1, Missouri voters, no trendlines):

Jim Talent (R): 53

Peter Kinder (R): 26

Sarah Steelman (R): 17

Undecided: 4

(MoE: ±4.9%)

PPP’s first look at the GOP Senate primary in Missouri shows, for now, the power of name rec over the reputed power of the tea party. Ex-Sen. Jim Talent is out to a big lead over ex-Treasurer Sarah Steelman, the only announced candidate so far. That’s despite a lot of hoopla that surrounded Steelman’s announcement last week that focused on her grass-roots popularity and some touting from those on the far-right, like the Club for Growth. Talent, despite the CfG’s attacks on him as pork-hungry, doesn’t seem to have much trouble with the very-conservative-leaning Missouri GOP electorate, with 55/13 favorables. Steelman, by comparison, is at 25/13 (with 62% unknown).

The big question here, though is what happens to the Peter Kinder vote (as the Lt. Governor is widely expected to run for Governor, not Senator)? Is his 26% part of an anti-Talent bloc, which is likely to gravitate toward Steelman, or is it Kinder-specific, and likely to break evenly between the two if it’s a Talent/Steelman matchup?

A Talent/Steelman matchup still isn’t a done deal, by the way; Jeremy Jacobs talked to a variety of GOP insiders in Missouri, and some think he’s hesitant to run, saying he hasn’t been aggressively reaching out to donors. The same article has some interesting wrinkles for Steelman, though; despite the wet kiss that she got from the inside-the-Beltway teabaggers (i.e. the CfG), the locals seem a lot more skeptical. The St. Louis Tea Party Coalition, in fact, has sent around e-mails to supporters questioning her credentials, and saying there is no Tea Party candidate in the race yet. The main problem seems to be her husband, who’s a leader among the state’s trial lawyers, giving rise to accusations that she was pro-trial lawyer while in the state Senate.

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (11/29-12/1, Missouri voters, no trendlines):

Jay Nixon (D-inc): 47

Peter Kinder (R): 39

Undecided: 14

Jay Nixon (D-inc): 46

Sarah Steelman (R):  35

Undecided: 19

(MoE: ±4.3%)

There’s also the matter of Missouri’s gubernatorial race in 2012, which is where we’re much more likely to see Kinder running. Despite Missouri’s seeming turn to the right in the last few years, Nixon seems on track to gut this one out, thanks to a mix of centrism and personal appeal (good for getting the vote of 14% of Republicans). He has 44/30 approvals (compared with 23/22 favorables for Kinder, good for a 54% unknown), making him the 6th-most popular governor according to PPP’s tally — despite a sample that breaks down 39% GOP and 36% Dem. This could get closer as the GOP opposition gets better known, but for now it’s one of the Dems’ lesser worries for 2012.

33 thoughts on “MO-Sen, MO-Gov: Talent Leads GOP Senate Primary”

  1. I thought we all agreed last week that Missouri was moving away from the Democrats and that Obama, McCaskill, and all other Democrats should simply give up, despite the fact that no candidates have been selected, no ads have been aired, no voters have been registered and/or mobilized, and the election is still about two years away.

    Seriously now, nothing would please me more than to see the Teabaggers start to eat their own, or at least rough their own up enough so that they could out of the primary damaged. Democrats in Missouri should be taking note of what Steelman does in order to try to win over whatever Tea Party members that aren’t currently supporting her, especially if she’s not the only major or semi-major candidate in the race. Come on, purity trolls: force her to go to the extreme right.

  2. The only things that I’ve heard about her are that she was involved in a messy gubernatorial primary in ’08 and that she was included in a New York Times spread of potential female presidents. While she may be farther to the right than Talent is I can’t imagine her being outside of the Republican mainstream.

  3. Wow if Steelman isn’t a Tea Party member who is?

    A million issues out there and she’s on the wrong side on one so she’s out? Wow next if you buy bottle water or believe in pre-school or don’t eat Turkey on Thanksgiving you’ll be out as a tea party member. And how on the wrong side is she? She supported the industry her husbands in? Must be fun to be at that table, trail lawyers are usually strong Dems and she’s a tea party member.

    Nixon is in great shape considering this comes 1 month after Dems got wiped across the table. Question is how big are his coattails. Probably need just 1-2 points for McCaskill to be in decent shape.

  4. All of this brings to mind Ohio’s soon-to-be former governor, Ted Strickland. I think he was up this much (if not more) that far out from November 2010, so I bet you any of the strong-looking Repugs can win this. I would hate to see it, but learned that caution is a must these days.

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