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Trying to Predict Redistricting in New York

by: jsramek

Sun Dec 05, 2010 at 10:27 PM EST


As an ex-New Yorker, I keep my eyes perennially glued to New York politics.  It did not shock me terribly that Republicans took back a fair number of upstate New York house seats.  There were a lot of 27-1 or 28-0 nonsense maps put on this website last winter that failed to take into account that Republicans in New York often vote Democratic for president when they think the national candidate is too extreme but have no problem voting Republican downballot the rest of the way.  This may eventually change, like the voting habits of Dixicrats in the South apparently have, but it will take a while.

What shocked me the most was that it appears that the State Senate, and with it the Democratic trifecta that everyone was counting on last winter, has switched back into narrow GOP control pending the recounts in a few still undeclared State Senate seats.  With the lost of the North Buffalo seat to a Republican candidate, it appears our best hopes lay on working to a 31-31 tie.  Still, even were the lieutenant governor to cast a tie-breaking vote to organize the chamber for the Democrats, we have to keep in mind that there are quite a few scumbags in the delegation (Carl Krueger always tops the list in my view now that Espada and Montserrate are gone) who are more than willing to cut a deal with Dean Skelos (the GOP leader in the State Senate).  I therefore assume the following:

1) The GOP will have a seat at the table with redistricting.  Even with the very best scenario of the state senate breakdown of 31-31, it would be very hard to pass a Democratic gerrymander through the state legislature.  That's just the reality.  

2) It will be an incumbent protection map that discomfits only those chosen to be drawn out.  

3) Despite Cuomo's enthusiasm for a commission drawing the maps, it will not be passed in time to affect this round of redistricting and probably won't be passed ever.  I can hardly ever see Shelly Silver giving up on drawing the State Assembly lines and that's what it would take for Cuomo's idea to prevail.  The Democratic leadership of the State Assembly perennially sold their party brothers and sisters over in the State Senate down the river for decades in going along with all the pro-GOP gerrymandering of the State Senate.  I hardly see anything different now.  

So this will be an agreement brokered between 3 men in a room, like the state budget or anything in New York State politics.  (For those of you not from New York or familiar with this phrase, it refers to the governor, the Assembly Speaker (always Democrat) and the State Senate President (usually historically Republican).

4) In addition to protecting the 4 black VRA districts and the 2 Hispanic VRA districts, a 3rd Hispanic district out of Joe Crowley's currently minority-majority district that is Queens/Bronx will likely have to be passed to pass VRA preclearance.  This complicates greatly the map for downstate in a way that 2000 did not.  I would imagine that one of the three Queens white Democrats (Ackerman, Weiner, Crowley) gets the axe but expect there to be bitter racial tension over this.  Even if the GOP is closed out from redistricting through some act of miracle like the Buffalo state senator deciding to caucus with Democrats and/or Craig Johnson and Suzi Oppenheimer both winning their recounts, all it takes is one or two disgruntled Latino politicians that their constituency isn't getting their "fair share" of congressional districts for them to bolt tactically to the Republicans.  If you don't think this is a serious concern, I consult you to the 2001 mayoral election as a textbook example.  Fernando Ferrer sat on his hands - the Bronx Democratic machine did nothing on election day - and Bloomberg won.

So the crux of the matter is that a third Hispanic district will be created, very likely in the Queens/southern and eastern Bronx area.  Despite the fact that Crowley has close ties to Shelly Silver, he seems likeliest to be discomfited the most by the stark demographic realities of New York City.

5) In the past, New York State politicians in Albany have tended to privilege clout above all else.  Anyone who sits on Appropriations (Israel, Hinchey, Lowey, Serrano), Ways and Means (Rangel for now, Crowley, Higgins), or Financial Services because of the state's ties to Wall Street and the large donations these members can draw (Maloney, Velazquez, Ackerman, Meeks, McCarthy) are generally immune from losing their districts.  I would add to this list Peter King (the incoming chair of Homeland Security - very important in swinging money to NYC and the State which overrides national partisan political objectives) and Slaughter (on Rules, which if the national Democrats get their act together and win back the House, she will again chair).

6) Western New York, which took the brunt the last time will not this time around, even though that is the part of the state that is losing the most population.  Either a prettier version of the dumbells will be created again for Slaughter, or there will be a Buffalo-Niagara Falls and a Rochester-Monroe County district.

7) The Hudson Valley (which gave up the other lost seat in 2002) will also not lose a seat.  Nita Lowey is too powerful to consent to a Westchester brawl between her and Nan Haysworth.  Hinchey's on the powerful appropriations committee so a Hudson Valley conglomerated district between him and Haysworth also isn't going to happen, either.  Given the state GOP's desire to want to protect their most imperiled pickup, Buerkle's surprise defeat of Dan Maffei in the Syracuse-based district, Hinchey's elongated Southern Tier-Hudson Valley district will be needed to suck up ultra liberal votes out of Tompkins County.

Therefore, who might get targeted for elimination?
jsramek :: Trying to Predict Redistricting in New York
If New York only loses one seat, it seems easy to me to predict the outcome.  Bill Owens and Chris Gibson will be merged together in an Eastern Upstate New York congressional district that combines the northern most counties with the upper Hudson Valley, swooping around Albany.  It would be, depending on how you draw the lines, anywhere between a 52-54% Obama district and truly a "fair fight."

What I've been struggling with is who gets the axe in addition if it's a two-seat casualty loss and New York only has 27 seats after 2010.  In this scenario, the bipartisan redistricting scenario would require one Democratic and one Republican seat to vanish.  Upstate New York is where they would almost definitely take the Republican seat from.  Bill Owens would be left alone and Hanna and Gibson or Gibson and Haysworth would be merged.

Okay, so far so good.  Which Democrat gets the axe?  Remember, NYC is an universe all to itself and city politicians have a tendency to privilege the maintenance of clout and seniority over all else.  Also, it seems to me that even when I run the numbers on Dave's redistricting app, a 3rd Hispanic district will still have to likely be created; therefore Crowley is still in a lot of peril one way or the other.

My guess is Eliot Engel of the north Bronx will eventually get the axe.  He is not well-liked in the delegation, nor by the Bronx party machine.  The demographic realities of a two-district loss mean that upstate will push a bit south even with losing one seat (because all of the population growth has been Hudson Valley-South for the past 2 decades at least) and there isn't enough room in the Bronx to maintain a white district for him.  He sits on Foreign Affairs, which is a plum committee, but for pork barrel and "I scratch your back, you scratch mine" New York parochial politics, that aint good enough when push comes to shove.

The only thing that gives me pause is that when I play with it on Dave's application, it does make the map a bit messy.  Haysworth swings south a tiny bit, like in the current map, to grab up more Republican-leaning or mixed areas of northern Westchester and northern Rockland.  Lowey takes the rest of Rockland and Westchester easily enough.  Then you would have Nadler swing north into Riverdale and left-over parts of Yonkers not needed in Lowey's district.  Rangel could then have retain a black-plurality for his district by going into the north Bronx, Mt Vernon and parts of New Rochelle.  And then you would have room enough to create the 3rd Hispanic district in the southeast Bronx/northern Queens areas.  Down in Brooklyn, Grimm gets the heavily McCain precincts, the two black districts expand a bit more in that direction to gain new population, and Anthony Weiner gets the rest of the area that Nadler gives up.  Weiner is exactly the kind of Democrat that these voters would vote for so that's not a big problem.

My only other guess is what to do out in Long Island.  Is it possible to really help Bishop at the expense of Israel or (ripple effects) McCarthy?  Bear in mind that Peter King has a safe pass given a) his position as the chair of Homeland Security and b) Dean Skelos being a fellow Nassau County Republican.  Realistically also, and this was the major flaw in many of the maps I saw it last year, no New York City politician wants to have to represent Long Island - there is just this hostility between the two regions as well as this narrow parochialism that is a New York City disease (and I can say that being a former New Yawker myself - I absolute refuse to give up rooting for my often lousy Mets).

So Peter King gets a safe GOP district, but unless you go into the City and have some of the City districts come out into the Island a bit, there are only enough Democrats for 2 districts (the current 2nd and 4th, both at 59% Obama performance).

So that's what I foresee happening; Bishop not being helped all that much (except maybe the removal of Smithtown and the home of Altschuler) with some minority areas of Islip Town being added in its place.  This brings his district up from 52-53% Obama to 55% Obama, not that much of a help frankly.  It would have to be done in such a way not to imperil Israel most of all (as an appropriator he has a tremendous amount of clout) and McCarthy indirectly (because if you have Israel grab black areas in Nassau to compensate for losing minority voters in Islip, you risk imperiling McCarthy).

So the likeliest Democratic casualty if it is a 2-district loss seems to me to be Eliot Engel.  The only other possible scenario that I keep playing in my head is that perhaps Weiner gets the axe with everyone expecting (including himself all these years) that he will run for mayor in 2013.  I also note that he does not sit on any important clout committee - Education and Labor is not important enough in steering resources or in protecting tax provisions for Wall Street for Albany politicians to care much to want to protect him.  Engel still might not out of the woods with this scenario, though.  Might Shelly Silver protect his protege Crowley by drawing Eliot Engel into a Hispanic-majority district, axeing Weiner and drawing Crowley a dream Queens district where he can marshal the Queens Democratic machine behind him?  Intriguing possibilities....

I welcome your thoughts on this.  As someone who, because of my job, now resides in southern Illinois and only comes back to the City 2-3 times a year or to the Hudson Valley (where I'm originally from), my political radar antenna isn't as perceptive as it might be were I still resident in New York.  
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Trying to Predict Redistricting in New York | 79 comments
We will soon be able to tell
how much Cuomo values a Democratic senate majority. If he really does, he will veto to plan and leave it to be drawn by a court.

For what it's worth, I think Democrats--and the state itself--would be best served by court drawn maps up and down the ballot. The only way Republicans can retain control of the senate (if at all) is through a gerrymander even more horrendous than the current one.

I totally agree...
But a state master will likely preserve the iron-clad "rule" that only one district shares Long Island with NYC (Ackerman's).  But if New York loses 2 seats, LI might be down to 3.8 seats so then Ackerman gets the boot.  Other than Weiner, who I speculate has only Schumer protecting him as nobody really likes him otherwise, Democrats on the periphery of New York City in either direction (Ackerman/Engel) might be at risk of being booted, particularly if a court draws the maps.

At least one good thing will severely clamp the GOP from trying to perpetuate their shaky grip on the State Senate.  Because of a new law passed last year (under the brief Democratic control of the State Senate), prison inmates are now counted for reapportionment purposes in their initial pre-prison home districts rather than where they "resided" in prison.  I would think even if the GOP cheats with the 10% leeway rule in population sizes from the norm, they will lose a seat upstate (and thus probably their majority for good) under this rule alone.  It seems to me only a matter of time.

[ Parent ]
If they make a deal, that new law
will be totally meaningless: it is just a statute that can be abrogated by the new plan.

However, I believe that if a court craws the map, the law will have to be observed.

As to the Congressional map: given the bargaining position that the Republicans are in, I expect that they will be forced to eat the lost seat if they want to draw their own state senate map. And I highly doubt that NY will lose two House seats.  

[ Parent ]
Interesting...
Cuomo and/or Silver refuse to go along with a Republican State Senate map.... What would stop the Republicans then from taking their chances with a court map?  The wonderful thing about the latest primary in the country is that they can drag this out until June/July 2012 if they have to.  I think you're on to something; this will be a game of chicken little this time around, probably causing the national party leaders a lot of jitters.

I also agree that a two-district loss is probably not likely, but I mention it because it's very close and because it really messes things up downstate.  A one-seat loss and Upstate takes it again and the only mess downstate is the need (probably) to create a new Hispanic district.

[ Parent ]
If the Republicans end up with a court drawn
map, they are screwed. To tell you the truth, they might be screwed no matter what: they have no margin for error, and even if they get to draw their own map up, they almost certainly have to draw a new district downstate.

[ Parent ]
yep...
That's been my thoughts about this for a while.  Either they continue 62 seats and sacrifice one of their own upstate or they add a 63rd seat downstate (like they added 1 in 2002) and it goes Democratic.  I really can't see where they would draw another "Republican-leaning" district in New York City; they already did that with Marty Golden's seat in south Brooklyn.  Queens?  Maybe, but the Queens Democratic machine is far more competent and scandal-free than its Brooklyn cousin....

Tis almost a matter of time, like 2-4 years before the State Senate switches permanently and career RINOs retire or die that are propping that delegation up (like several of the Long Island Republicans, Steve Saland, etc.) retire or die.

[ Parent ]
Daves tool in NYC
It would be difficult to work Daves tool in NYC until the updated census figures come out and are entered.  I may be wrong, but the racial percentages are based on 2000 data.  The numbers for the counties in NYC.  

It is much more difficult in LA County, where the intra-county percent of increase distorts the numbers for individual districts exponentialy more than in NYC, where at least there are 5 counties.

In LA County [California] it is my opinion that the number of blacks in the central city, for instance is significantly over emphasized.

This is nothing to say against Dave- It would be next to impossible or time consuming to compensate the various precincts of the county from zero to 20% increase[probably more of a range], which could be the difference between downtown and the area north of the mountains, where CD25 is now located.

But the numbers in Dave tool are sufficiently accurate to show that all of the districts in LA county, except CD25, are heavily D.  But CD25, which is R, is probably the district with the greatest increase in population.

Joe Cooper

Technically, CA-22, 26, and 46
are all in LA County too.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
and 42


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I appreciate your effort in this analisis with high detail
But I have a trouble in the basis here.

Reading this, it seems like the democratic party is really weak and would not be able for stop nothing against the own interest in New York. I think this is not the reality, even if the state senate end with 32R-30D. Here the republicans have not the power like in Texas.

At least, I think you can forget a new VRA seat in New York, you can forget the seat of a democratic incumbent disappearing, and you can forget see some current democratic incumbent in a district worse than D+5 after the redistricting process.

You should see a republican incumbent without district after the redistricting. I think NY-25 is the district what can disappear because no-one democrat should accept to make it a R+ district for protect Buerkle and the republicans will prefer keep their R+ seats because they have higher chance of keep them. That can help making more democratic NY-23 what must up until D+5/D+6 and for it need democratic votes from Syracuse and/or Albany.

This leaves still 7 R+ districts with republican incumbents. And this is still under the minimum of the minimum for a democrat. The democrats should improve this poor 21-7 map if they are some Pedro Espada between the state senate republicans. And I think they will have. Then, the republicans still have some reasons for worry.

You may have a point here, but
The Republicans do have a trump card to play, well really two.  First of all, they can always drag their feet on the state budget, which is what Joe Bruno used to always do.  Second, they can nuke redistricting and take their chances with a special master appointed by the courts.  2002 almost ended this way - it was only the fact that the map discomfited Reynolds and Lowey that Bruno and Silver went back to the bargaining table.

I'm sorry but 32-30 is still a majority... and unless I missed something being away for the past 3 years, New York politicians of whatever party know how to play hardball and often do.  Politics aint beanbag is a famous NY expression.

As for going after Buerkle, that is suicidal from a Republican's point of view.  If you remember that all the surrounding districts elected a Democrat at some point in this past cycle, carving that district up in a million pieces just increases the danger for all involved.  From a hardnosed realistic view, they'll leave Buerkle's seat largely as is and shore up the Reed and Hanna.

[ Parent ]
Just 32-30 is the last democratic majority

So weak, like you know.

Suicidal or not, the democrats can not accept other thing.

My model would include:

NY-28 based in Rochester totally inside of Monroe County.

NY-27 based in Buffalo.

NY-23 keeping the north and taking a good part of Syracuse until become D+5 or D+6.

Without this, they are low risk for the other republicans in the area of the NY-25.

[ Parent ]
The Republicans might agree to this
especially if they want to keep Buerkle from becoming toast in 2012 when the Obama coattails bring Maffei or some other Democrat into the seat again.  The question is whether Bill Owen would like the new district all that much?  Perhaps if you could draw Doug Hoffman into Gibson's district and let the two duke it out who's more wacko.  The problem is that Hoffman lives in Lake Placid, if I recall, not only home of both the 1932 and 1980 winter olympics but a 60%+ bastion of Obama voters in Essex County, which like the North Country, voted quite nicely for Obama.
[ Parent ]
This mean not a big change for Owens
Only would include the most democratic precints inside Syracuse, not all the area of the city, and surely not all the city. Few things for keep happy Buerkle.

In this moment move NY-23 toward Albany benefit to the republicans. Like you know Gibons would not get in the NY-23, then that mean not a district less for the republicans, and that mean a more republican districts for the republicans.

If the NY-23 goes to Syracuse that mean the current NY-25 disappear. If NY-23 goes toward Albany the republicans lose not a district. And that make safest NY-20 and NY-25 for the republicans because both districts would take the republican areas what would get out of the current NY-23. Pretty good plan for the republicans. And if you add a new VRA district in the city they can dance happily for celebrate the results of the redistricting process.


[ Parent ]
As for forgetting the VRA seat...
that is nonsense.  The courts will throw out the redistricting plan if there isn't one.  Same with Illinois Democrats and Chicago.  Plus, it makes good political sense - the last thing you want is a state GOP come back from the grave because of ticked-off Hispanic voters.  If you say it can't happen, Paladino notwithstanding, the state GOP is not crazy bigots.  New York aint California or Texas in that regard.

No, there will be a third Hispanic district created but, probably the more I think about it, drawn with Crowley's interests in mind.

[ Parent ]
A new VRA district in NY only help to the republicans

A VRA district mean to make very democratic one district making less democratic a lot of districts what can end in republican hands.

I buy not this reasons. Maybe you need to protect a minority is states like Arizona, where the majority make laws against the minority, but not in New York. Si yo fuera un hispano democrata nunca buscaría un nuevo distrito hispano en New York. If I would be a hispanic democrat never would find a new hispanic district in New York.

If I'm not wrong the court can challenge a new district when a minority gets worse than before, but find not actively to create new VRA districts where before they are not.

No-one democrat in New York should support a new VRA district in the city.

[ Parent ]
your premise is not valid in NYC
No Republican is going to win in the Queens/Bronx if they have to create a third Hispanic district.  Even the McCain precincts in the Queens/Brooklyn are Democratic on the local and state levels; these voters (many of them ultra-orthodox Jews) had problems voting for Obama in part because of the nasty racial tensions in NYC over the years (Crown Heights anyone?) and in part because they didn't think Obama was sufficiently pro-Israel.  Btw, this is probably why Obama did terribly in the Five Towns of SW Nassau County, Rockland County, etc.
[ Parent ]
You must look to all the state

The redistricting is for all the state you can not think in some counties, or boroughs of the city. Every district affect to all the others in the state.

You have 8 republicans favored by the current VRA districts in New York. And all they would be more favored still with a new VRA district.

[ Parent ]
A new D+25/D+30 VRA district in the city mean

mean an average of one point less for every other district in New York in the Cook PVI rating.

But with the geographic structure of New York, a new VRA district in Queens would dammage a lot to the potential improvement of all the districts of Long Island since a democratic point. The potential improvement of a democratic redistricting would down an average of three/four points for every district in the Cook Partisan Voting Index for the districts of Long Island. And if it is in the Bronx, the potential improvement of all the districts in the upstate would get seriously affected.

One thing is can not do a democratic gerrymander this year, but other thing is to create a new VRA district what would destroy permanently the potential improvement of a democratic redistricting of New York. A responsible democrat would not accept it never.

[ Parent ]
In Bronx can be worse still

A new VRA district can mean three of four districts in the upstate for the republicans forever.
[ Parent ]
I don't accept your premise
especially when, by custom, only one district crosses from Long Island into NYC (Ackerman) and generally only one district from the Bronx into Westchester (Engel).  A special court master will probably adhere to this "rule."  So it is very hard as a matter of fact to begin with to distribute New York City votes elsewhere other than in New York City.  Republicans are already being helped by this, almost entirely independently of whether you create another Hispanic seat in NYC or not.  It has nothing to do with the VRA or not.

Besides even if there were some provable evidence you could bring to bear that a third Hispanic district or the creation of another minority-majority district has ripple effects north of the Bear Mountain Bridge, the courts will require it as will Obama's DOJ.  Bronx, Queens, and Kings, if I recall require pre-clearance under the VRA just as entire Southern states do.

[ Parent ]
Well

Just this "customs" are pretty pro-republican and come since the times where republicans redistrict always. If you wish keep it, you are conceding to the republicans all the advantages for keep the old pro-republican gerrymander redistricting of New York.

The democratic legislator can not accept these "customs" what are only the old republican strategy for redistricting the state and keep the majority of the democratic votes in only few districts. I think not the court will impose this republican partisan "customs".

[ Parent ]
nope...
It will mean the elimination of a white Democrat from NYC, which is in keeping with the demographic reality of NYC over the past several decades.  It will have other effect beyond that.  This isn't the South, where minority districts cause Republicans to be elected elsewhere.  Your premise would only hold water with me, frankly, if there were enough minority voters to string together Upstate New York to create a minority district.  The current NY-28 is a good example; its creation helps keep Christopher Lee in office.  Okay I grant you that.  But NYC, where all the minority districts in the state are located, is so far away from the rest of the state, and connected only by a narrow tendril in southern Westchester.  Very hard, geographically-speaking, wouldn't you think, for your whole argument to pan out?
[ Parent ]
Just I draw maps for New York finding the limits.

The result of this was a map were every precint of all the state was in district with 58%-59% Obama. This was the limit what I find, and this map was very affected by two limits:

- The geographical limit in the area of Westchester.

- The VRA districts what only help to acumulate the most democratic and the most progressive vote in very few districts.

If you add a new VRA district, the limit would take easily the lead making you can not have an average of safe districts for the democrats.

A limit of 58% Obama (D+6) is very modest for a state with a rating of D+12.

I find draw VRA districts keeping inside the incumbents with the minimum percentage of democratic vote for leave the maximum democratic voters for other districts. My result was the next:

- 6th: 79% Obama D+27
- 10: 82% Obama D+30
- 11: 85% Obama D+33
- 12: 84% Obama D+32
- 15: 86% Obama D+34
- 16: 95% Obama D+43

The rating of these six districts makes down the average of the other 22 districts 5.772%. That mean you go since an overall average of D+12 to an average of D+6.228. What is just the average of the non VRA districts in my model.

If you add a new VRA district with easily 85% Obama (21% over D+12) the other 21 districts would down 1 point more, but very likely this VRA district would cut very much of the little geographical ways what currently we would have for give democratic votes to other states, then, to create a new VRA district in the city would surely destroy the chance of do a democratic gerrymander with safe districts for the democrats in all the state.

Maybe the democratic party can not do a democratic gerrymander of New York this year, but I'm sure will not destroy the chance of do it the future. Cause of this I think you can forget a new VRA district.

Just the districts of New York city what are not VRA are the source of democratic votes for make a natural democratic gerrymander of Long Island and Staten Island. No-one responsible democrat can destroy this chance. And the same for the upstate.

Sorry, but you are telling just the things what I would find if I would be republican. Some new VRA district is the worst thing what the democrats can accept in the redistricting of New York, like create some new VRA district is the best thing what the democrats would do in the redistricting of Arkansas.

[ Parent ]
Fine...
You might be right here.  But the VRA is the law - there is settled case law with this, and let's face it, bipartisan redistricting of some kind or another (or a court master's plan, which will follow the VRA strictly, as well as community of interest and breaking up counties/towns/cites as little as possible) all of which crimp severely on the kind of redistricting mischief I want to indulge in and I'm sure you do as well.
[ Parent ]
The law is the law, and will be respected

But I think no-one loyal democratic legislator will accept this in the legislature. If the court draw it, nothing to do. But I doubt it. The VRA would force to create new VRA districts in other states like Georgia, Texas or Arkansas, but I see not this before. And this would be good for the democrats from these states, then they would find it in the court too.
[ Parent ]
Could Crowley become the Gene Green of New York?
His current district was 36% Hispanic in 2000 (so it may be 40 or more by now), and I've never heard about the Hispanic base having any problems with him. Even if they make the district 55% Hispanic or so, I could see Crowley winning the primary and continuing to represent the district.

Another option is swinging Crowley south and sending Weiner into the Bronx. He's already focused on his NYC mayor campaign in 2013 so he may choose to temporarily step aside and start working on that, opening the door for a 3rd Hispanic Rep.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

possibly
Possibly.... Certainly he is close to the Queens machine.  Besides, even if you draw a 50-55% Hispanic district, given that we're not talking about Puerto Ricans (except in the Bronx), the percentage who are citizens is likely a bit lower.  
[ Parent ]
Actually it's up to around
44% Hispanic. I disagree with OP's premise that a 3rd Hispanic opportunity district is already baked into the bread for next year (especially because the Justice Dept has traditionally lagged behind enforcing Hispanic-majority districts at a number anywhere terribly close to their overall share of the population), but it is so close to 50%+1 that I'm sure that it could happen without too much pain.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
My general rule
about redistricting  seat elimination and nearly always a tried and true rule is this.  Its always better for a party to eliminate its strongest seat.  That's a painful thought in many cases but its true.

In MA we see that chopping up MA8 allows the distribution of lots of strong territory to other districts.  If you chopped up MA3 or MA5 you would handing out some GOP areas or GOP leaning areas to surrounding districts.  Who wants that?

If NY loses two seats (as seems likely) its clear one will be upstate GOP and the other will be NY city D.

I would argue that the republicans would put CD26 & CD29 together.  Yes Owens & Hinchley plus the other three upstate democrats will be marginally improved (Slaughter would get much more of Monroe county back).

Buerkle & Hanna would get some prime rural/suburban pieces from 29 plus Hayworth & Gibson would get some nice areas too.  

There is a large population shortfall in CD28-CD27-CD26-CD29 so (%wise it appears to be the largest in NY) so logically this area should take a hit.  

Hinchley take the balance of Tompkins plus Chemung--Hanna Yates & Schyler while Buerkle gets Onatario--

You can keep moving westward if you need to.  I am not into maps yet but theories right now.  

As noted the GOP would be silly to divide up Buerkle-who wants 1/2 of Onondaga county?  

CD25
Photobucket

I suppose it depends on which half.

CD22 O61% M37%
CD23 O50% M49%
CD24 O47% M52%
CD25 O46% M52%

Joe Cooper

[ Parent ]
clever
Clever... but Maurice Hinchey might not like this as he is anti gun-control (given that he represents a largely rural district and is a progressive on everything else, this probably makes electoral sense for him).  If you are going to give Syracuse to a Democrat, might you draw Louise Slaughter from Rochester to Syracuse?  She would probably have a stink fit, however, given how unhappy she was in 2002 with the earmuffs district that she now represents.

Plus, I think Buerkle lives in Syracuse so this is probably a non-starter...

But, as I said, clever all the same....

[ Parent ]
Clever indeed
Two old cities  Ithaca and Syracuse or Hommer & Shakespeare united at last.

This a merger of of one of the western districts 26 or 29 with the GOP leaning portion of Onondaga county.

Not bad--

[ Parent ]
Okay played around with Upstate New York assuming a 27-district map
Your idea probably won't work with a 28 district map, or if it did it would be even uglier than this.  But here's what I came up with assuming that the Republican district axed was a cross between the current 26th and the 29th....

It is also possible to create a district for Eliot Engel but one that is truly a minority-majority coalition VRA district: 36% black, 34% Hispanic, 30% white!  Under that scenario, to finish the map I would give Riverdale to Nadler (who would find that rather sympatico I would think) connected with a tiny tendril down to the Upper West Side.  Rangel could expand over to black areas of the South Bronx; Serrano could take the rest of the Bronx and Crowley could have a minority-majority coalition district confined to Queens.  It probably means Weiner/Ackerman get drawn out, however.

Okay, here's what I have...

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District 16 (green) Engel (D) 36% B, 34% H, 23% W
Obama 84, McCain 15
Get ready for a minority politician from the north Bronx.  I don't think Engel can keep holding this district that looks a lot like his did in the 1990s (minus Riverdale).  Nobody will shed a tear, though.  And it might make it palatable VRA-wise to keep Crowley's district more or less the same demographics wise rather than create an out-and-out third Hispanic VRA district.

District 17 (dark purple) Lowey (D) Obama 60, McCain 39
Takes the more Democratic parts of Westchester leftover after Engel and Hayworth are drawn, as well as the more Democratic areas of Rockland.  Whereever possible on this map, I tried to keep townships and cities whole.  Local jurisdictions matter in New York - perhaps too much as Cuomo is trying to get rid of a few as we speak.

District 18 (yellow) Hayworth (R) Obama 50, McCain 49
I grew up just outside of this district in Fishkill Town, Dutchess County.  Let me tell you, Obama's 50% is overstating Democratic performance by a good 3-5 points... this area is not as Republican as it used to be but still Republican enough.  A bi-partisan redistricting deal will have to leave Haysworth alone.  Given the clout that Hinchey and Lowey both have, you have to stroke their egos a bit and draw them both safe seats.  Particularly Hinchey as he is an old-fashioned almost-socialist throwback to the New Deal (but I love that bit about him).

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District 19 (puky green) Gibson (R) McCain 50, Obama 48

Your theory about collapsing the two most Republican districts in the state into one bears fruit starting with this district, moving a good 6 points in the Republican direction from where it is now.

District 20 (pink) Tonko (D) Obama 58, McCain 40

Don't know about the legality of a congressional district surrounded on all 4 sides by another so I included all of Rensselaer here so it touches MA.

District 21 (maroon) Owens (D) Obama 53, McCain 46
Tried to make this a bit more Democratic, which is really, really hard actually, by giving Owens Utica.  Btw, Albany mapmakers would do this sort of a thing.  In 2002, then John McHugh got all of Madison County.  Why?  Because that was where one of then Sherry Boehlert's 2000 Republican primary opponents lived.  They will do this to freeze out Arcuri.

District 22 (brown) Hinchey (D) Obama 60, McCain 39

Your idea also works here.

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District 23 (light blue) Hanna (R) Obama 45, McCain 53

Hanna gobs up the left-over bits from merging the 26th and the 29th and gains a safer seat as a result.

District 24 (purple) Buerkle (R) Obama 55, McCain 44

Takes all of Ontario as you suggested.  Still a district that a Democrat can snatch away, though.

District 25 (pink) Lee (R) vs. Reed (R) Obama 44, McCain 54

Drew ridiculously safe seats for Higgins and Slaughter, including an improved version of the earmuffs... this is what's left.  Safe GOP but one of the relatively seniority-less Republicans in Western NY will have to go, my guess Reed.

District 26 (grey) Slaughter (D) Obama 62, McCain 37

Safe seat for when Slaughter retires, which I imagine will be in a few terms from now.

District 27 (green) Higgins (D) Obama 60, McCain 39

Another safe seat for a rising New York Democrat.  Were this a Democratic gerrymander, I would have drawn Higgins a less safe seat as he has a lot of bipartisan crossover appeal.  But that's no longer realistically in the cards.  If it is just a one seat loss, I can see a scenario whereby the Assembly Democrats allow the Republicans to draw the state senate map in exchange for eating the one seat on the congressional.  But on a two-seat loss, like this scenario is contemplating, not going to happen.

As a ultra-partisan Democrat, I don't like this map at all.  It is a mildly pro-Republican gerrymander upstate in my opinion.  But as past history demonstrates, New York City Democrats (who are the lion's share of the caucus in the Assembly as well as the incoming governor and current Assembly Speaker) don't give a flying you know what about upstate.  And never have.

[ Parent ]
I'll eat a shoe
if NY loses two seats.

If the Republicans want to draw their own map for the State Senate (and that has to be their overriding concern, given their precarious hold there), they will probably have to agree to let the Democrats run wild on the Congressional map. This will make DC Republicans unhappy, but because legislators protect themselves first, I think Albany Republicans would agree to the deal.

Because I am not confident that Republicans can retain the State Senate under any map, I think Democrats should seriously consider that compromise.  

[ Parent ]
That is exactly what I had in mind
Plus the GOP or Higgins would not mind swapping Chatutauqua county for Erie county precincts.  The political effect would minor and the districts would look compact.  Slaughter gets her Rochester mojo back and I think she would be set for another 10 years.

Hinchly-Higgins and Slaughter would be happy.

Buerkle would get a better district

Clearly Hanna has the edge in his seat(primary wise)

Reed-who had a health scare-looks to get the short end of the straw.  

I also agree 100% that if we see another VRA seat its Engel and not Crowley.  I think Crowley is the 800 pound gorilla in this fight.

These two guys Ackerman & Engel-have already shown cat like luck in 1990/2000 cycles.  In my opinion they both have bulleyes on their backs.  Either guy wants Crowley to have to go the other way.  

[ Parent ]
all of Monroe County
minus about 7,000 people would only give Slaughter a 58-40 district, and a year like this year's, where suburbs voted heavily the other way, it would be dicey.  On the other hand, if you drew just an Erie County district leaving out just the most Republican eastern and southern townships, you could easily draw a 63-64% Obama performing district for Higgins.  But then you would have do something with the slight Dem-leaning Niagara County.  Chautauqua is also a 50/50 county because of SUNY-Fredonia...
[ Parent ]
Need not more

The republicans win D+4 as maximum this year. It is enough safe. It would be not very high risk, except if have a corrupt and/or unpopular democratic incumbent.

[ Parent ]
I forget

tell except IL-10 (D+6). Not common circunstances here.
[ Parent ]
I agree completely with your analysis of NYC politicians....
Crowley has clout.  Not only was he one of Shelly Silver's proteges back when Crowley was in the Assembly; Crowley if I recall is the head of the Queens Party Democratic machine.  Third, he is on Ways and Means.  Talk about clout, clout, and more clout!  

Ackerman is on financial services and because he's been in Congress since 1983, pretty high up in seniority by now.  

Engel on the other hand has always had an awkward relationship with other Democratic power-brokers.  Other than being a close protege of Chuck Schumer's, which does count for something, Anthony Weiner irritates most other New York City politicians because of his overweening ambition.  He doesn't serve on any high profile committee.  And he awkwardly lives in Forest Hills, Queens, which can easily be merged with Crowley.

Back in 1992, when two New York City white Democrats got axed (one for population purposes, the other to create a Hispanic majority seat), it ended up being one from the awkward squad (James Scheuer - who used to be known as the Flying Dutchman because he kept moving from congressional seat to congressional seat every ten years as Albany politicians tried to get rid of him).  Ackerman finally got rid of him in 1992.  Engel reminds me a bit of Scheuer.

The other politician who lost out was Steve Solarz.  The comparison doesn't work well with Weiner in a lot of respects; Solarz was not a bread-and-butter congressman, Weiner kind of is.  But as far as grandstanding, being someone always on national political talkshows, etc., the two are similar.  And, let's face it, in a state where Chuck Schumer is the senior Democrat in Congress and will be for at least 2-3 more decades to come at the rate he's going, there is only room for so many grandstanders.  If it comes to a seat from NYC disappearing, Engel first and Weiner second seem likeliest to me.

[ Parent ]
Solarz died last week.
Here is a great article on the relationship between Solarz and Chuck Schumer.
[ Parent ]
very good article
I read it last week... Very good article if you ever want to understand the rise of Chuck Schumer in New York State and national politics.
[ Parent ]
great analysis

Another possible scenario, this time a 1-seat loss
Going off of several of the comments, I am playing with the idea that a basic incumbent-protection map is agreed to, with the Republicans agreeing to their weakest freshman incumbent (Buerkle) being axed in exchange for the Democrats allowing them to roll the dice one more time and try to preserve their perilous hold on the State Senate.  The Democrats, under pressure from the national party will go along with this because Bill Owens (their most imperiled incumbent at the moment other than Bishop out in Long Island who really can't be helped much without pissing off more powerful Israel and McCarthy) gets a far safer district by grabbing Syracuse and jettisoning all the tea-party sympathetic areas, including the home of Doug Hoffman.  If Hoffman wants to continue his crusade he'll have to attack Gibson; have fun Doug!  The Republicans will go along with this because, well they'll they will get a court-drawn plan otherwise and, it does shore up several GOP leaning seats upstate or at least spreads the pain more evenly.  Boehner may not be happy about this one bit but I am sold on the idea that Albany Republicans will try to save their own skins ahead of the national party, which is semi-toxic in New York State anyhow.

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District 17 (purple) Engel (D) 49 W, 29 B, 16 H
Obama 66, McCain 33

Takes the most Republican (ultra-Hasidic Jews) areas of southern Orange and Rockland and drowns them out in the north Bronx.  Engel will like this slightly-more suburban, slightly-less Bronx district.  Follows the long-standing tradition in New York districting which holds that only one district crosses from Long Island into the City and likewise only one district crosses from Bronx into Westchester.

District 18 (yellow) Lowey (D)
Obama 60, McCain 39

No worries here for Lowey.  As part of an incumbent protection deal, it takes the most Democratic strongholds in Westchester, save Mt. Kisco/Bedford where Hayworth lives, to leave Haysworth a district she can win.  Were this a straight Democratic gerrymander, I'd have Lowey take almost all of Putnam and have Hayworth come down to Greenburgh and make both districts about 58% Obama, but not in cards unfortunately unless New York does a mid-cycle Delay-style redistricting when (not if) the Democrats seize back control of the State Senate.

District 19 (puky green-yellow) Hayworth (R)
Obama 52, McCain 47

Still only R+1 like currently.  As a parochial consideration, I included all of my former county growing up (Dutchess in the district) - as a county that now has a slight Democrat voter registration advantage, I think time might be on our side with this district.


District 20 (pink) Gibson (R)
Obama 50, McCain 49

Becomes slightly more Republican with the addition of the Tea Party areas of Owen's current district.  Doug Hoffman can run here if he likes.  And the establishment wing of the state GOP will do this deliberately, too (see the addition of Madison County to Bill Owen's district in 2002 to help out Sherry Boehlert if need a reason why).

District 21 (maroon) Tonko (D)
Obama 58, McCain 40

I'll call this the I-88 district.  Surprisingly for central New York, Otsego County is mildly Democratic.

District 22 (brown) Hinchey (D)
Obama 59, McCain 40

Largely the same politically as before, but with the addition of Cortland and Auburn to help out Hanna/Buerkle next door.

District 23 (light blue) Buerkle (R) vs. Hanna (R)
Oboma 49, McCain 49 (Obama carried the district by ~1700 votes)

Removes Syracuse and a few northern suburbs (I won't cut up townships if I can avoid it... seems funny to me) and combines Buerkle with Hanna into a slight Republican-leaning district.  About the best you can draw in central New York if your aim is to bolster Bill Owens to the north.  Besides the GOP might end up losing both Hanna and Buerkle in 2012 with Obama winning New York by a landslide; I would think that a hard-nosed politician like Dean Skelos knows this and will sacrifice one (Buerkle) to save the other.  

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District 24 (purple) Owens (D)
Obama 59, McCain 40

Owens is the prime beneficiary of this incumbent-protection plan.  His district removes his chief political opponent (Hoffman), and adds ultra-Democratic Syracuse to the already Democratic North Country, shedding its more conservative areas to the South.  The only problem is that this is aint no community of interest district.  But as I said earlier, downstate NY Democrats don't care one bit about upstate - although expect this district to be lambased across the state in newspaper editorials by go-go types.

District 25 (pink-red) Reed (R)
Obama 46, McCain 52

With a 28 district map it is not possible, without endangering Slaugter or Higgins, to collapse Reed and Lee together into a super-safe GOP district.  Even though it is losing people in droves, Western New York supports a bit more than ~3.7 districts.  So I chopped Buerkle out of a seat instead, added Wayne County and the Finger Lakes region to this Southern Tier district, and called it a day.

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District 26 (slate gray) Slaughter (D)
Obama 59, McCain 40

Most Democratic areas of Monroe County and a tiny finger down to Geneseo.

District 27 (green) Lee (R)
Obama 44, McCain 54

In taking up the idea of an exclusively Erie County district for Higgins, I thought that the addition of all of Niagara would piss Lee off.  But actually this works in giving him a safer seat than he has now!  And It is coherent as well, which I like.

District 28 (pink) Higgins (D)
Obama 63, McCain 36

And finally a Democratic bastion for Higgins - not that he needs this safe a district of course but under an incumbent-protection map he'll get one all the same.


One further thought...
Assume for the moment that at some point over the decade, either New York Democrats will seize back control of the State Senate and get rid of Haysworth, or that that seat will eventually get bluer and bluer as more Cityites and Westchester folks move up (as has been happening the past 2-3 decades).  I can realistically see it flipping back, particularly if a less liberal candidate than John Hall ran there.  I assume Peter King will be around forever, and they'll leave Michael Grimm alone down in Staten Island because no NYC Democrats wants to have to represent Staten Island.  That leaves 2 GOP congressmen downstate, and 4 upstate for a maximum total of 6.  Depending on what you do about Bishop out in Eastern LI, this map practically guarantees a 21-7 map and probably by the end of the decade a 22-6 map.  And if Arcuri can make a comeback, he might find the new 23rd a bit more to his liking than his old district that swopped in every direction to avoid hitting Syracuse.
[ Parent ]
This map looks better for me

In the current situation. This new NY-23 is not a bad solution for Owens, since he is the representative of the all the counties in your new district except for the part of Onondaga (Syracuse). I think looks better than the current NY-23.

I think it is not necessary give to Higgins a D+10+ district. If I would be a democratic legislator I would not accept this because that makes totally safe the republican neighbor (Lee in this case). While the people take the way of go to the south I would draw a district what includes the necessary part of Buffalo + Niagara + Orleans until the district based in Rochester. It is not difficult keep the level of the 59% Obama.

And I would bid down too, the district of Engler to a level of 59-60% Obama taking the most republican precincts in his area (without up the rating of the neighboring democratic districts). This would be very close to a democratic gerrymander for a 21-7 map. It give interesting results you can prove. Or the republicans have no-one representative totally safe in the upstate, or the republicans have some incumbent in D+.

I think this would be the minimum of the minimum what the democrats can accept despite the republicans keep solid the 32-30 majority in the state senate.

You make a lot of work drawing maps for this diary. Thanks.

[ Parent ]
A map like this would give to the 5 republican remaining incumbents

an average of R+2.5 aproximately.

That mean as example:

2 R+5
1 R+3
2 EVEN

or

3 R+3
2 R+2

I think the democrats can not accept something worse than this.

[ Parent ]
the questions then become...
Do the Republicans nuke the process, then does it go to a special master, and who is that special master appointed by?  Is it a state courts-appointed master, in which case I like our chances because Spitzer/Paterson probably have appointed a few judges so it aint so lopsidedly Pataki appointees.  If its a federal court, I don't like our chances so much unless the New York circuit is dominated by Clinton-appointees.

Okay, here's where the fun will not be in it for us with a court plan.  First of all, a court master is going to put together a fair-fight.  Did so in 2002 when New York almost adopted a court plan: Sherry Boehlert and Maurice Hinchey were put together in one district snaking down from Oneida to Binghamton east out to Ulster but without Ithaca.  Hinchey looked doomed.  The other "fair fight" placed LaFalce and Jack Quinn together in a Buffalo district.  Quinn looked doomed.  There is no reason to believe a court appointed master will not do the same thing again.  Bill Owens and one of the two freshmen Republicans nearby (either Gibson or Hanna) will be thrown together.  Under my plan, I am assuming as others on here are as well, that if the Democrats don't overreach, the Republicans might be amenable to a deal.

Second: a court master is going to go in for strict enforcement of the VRA.  Since I know you're not thrilled about that law to begin with, I'll leave you to fret about the possible political implications.

Third: a court master is going to probably have in his instructions to place communities of interest together.  That means, I think, Suffolk County gets fully 2 districts and a little bit of the 3rd - Steve Israel is going to be pissed because you could probably only draw him a 54-55% district in Suffolk.  Likewise 2 district in Nassau.  Upstate, it means whole counties being put together instead of fragments.  Now, objectively in the abstract, some might argue this would be a good thing.  In New York, it is a structural pro-Republican gerrymander.  The only way Democrats have a chance out on Long Island or in Upstate is to pull together pockets of Democratic strength.  Run the numbers on this - I would be surprised if I was proven wrong.  Other than Buffalo, Rochester, and Albany, where Democratic-leaning districts can be created with whole counties, the rest of the map would intrinsically favor Republicans with weak 51-52 Obama seats everywhere.  Not that Democrats cannot win these - a 18/11 split in 2002 has turned as high as 27/2 in 2009....

Fourth: there is no guarantee that state legislators nuke the whole system.  Albany is a huge patronage whirl - do you think that Shelly Silver wants to risk not being able to draw his chamber's lines another decade if it goes to a court master?  Realistically, a 95-55 or a 90-60 map is what that court master would provide, not the outlandish majorities he now has.

Okay, here's what it all adds up to me as.  Bear in mind I am an ultra partisan Democrat; I loathe the GOP, I loathe the fact that George Pataki raised my tuition by a lot when I was a college student at SUNY-Binghamton in the mid-1990s.  So I definitely sympathize on an emotional level with you.  But from a logical deal-cutting level, the Democrats will have to tread very carefully and limit their gains if they don't want this to go to a court master where there are unpredictable consequences involved.  

I suppose it might turn out like 2002 where they stall until May or June ad the courts then get involved because of the illegality of not redistricting in time for candidate petitions to circulate, etc.  Because New York state has the latest filing deadlines of any state in the US, they will be the last to redistrict for sure.  The court master will propose a plan (something I will try to write a diary about soon), national politicians of both parties will have a nervous sweat like in 2002, and will then induce Shelly Silver and Dean Skelos to reach some sort of an agreement.  It will not be pretty.  It is not "fair" in any sense that a party that is some 2-2.5mil fewer voters at this point and on life-support gets to have a 50-50 say on the congressional map.  But because the national parties will get involved, because the control of the House can easily flip back in 2012 and everyone knows it, this will be a neutral map to a very, very limited Democratic gerrymander (1 GOP seat lost max).  I don't like this, but I also believe in living in reality.  I am pissed royally that Antoine Thompson could lose such a safe seat as he had; or that career old-timers in Queens could get their hands so filthily dirty like they did.  But the reality is we lost the 2010 election for the State Senate and we now have to live with the consequences of that.

[ Parent ]
btw
The courts have gotten involved in one form or another (by appointing a special master to propose a plan or actually enacting a plan) in every year there's been split control of the state legislature since 1982.

1982: court threatened to put a plan together; last minute the two sides in the legislature came up with one that eliminated 5 seats (ouch!).

1992: I believe the court's plan got adopted

2002: court's plan almost was adopted (it was adopted with a stay on it for the legislature to pass a plan to supersede it).  

Don't count necessarily on 2012 having a super-nice ending for the Democrats.  We will probably have to cut a deal where we take one seat max from the Republicans in exchange for a status quo ante map of the State Senate (lovely).  That is the scenario I am operating under here.  The Republicans know that if a court master draws a state senate map it will flip permanently to Democratic control in 2012 elections - it may anyway regardless.  The Republicans palpably ignore community of interest everywhere in the map; Tompkins being split 3 ways; Rochester being split 3 ways, etc., etc.  Just putting cities and counties back into districts of their own will gains us back several State Senate seats.  We don't need a Democratic gerrymander.  Whereas there is no way under a "neutral" map that the Democrats lose the State Assembly.

Or the system will melt-down and we gain a court map.  Then we redistrict when we capture for good the State Senate.  But like in Texas, I would expect all kinds of lawsuits and I'm not sure about New York redistricting law whether it is even legal to do it more than once in the same decade.  New York politicians are certainly as ruthless as Delay... not worried about that.


[ Parent ]
Grisanti and someother GOPer must have clear some thing since the first day

If they give not fun to the democratic party in some or maybe many 2012 congressional races, the fun will be in the state senate races.

Grisanti and some other will be sacrificial lambs in 2012 if the democratic party can not target some congressional GOPer and spend some money there. What is the rating of Grisanti's senate seat?

Here it seems like the Democratic Party can not do nothing, and it is not true.

[ Parent ]
And something more

Under the things what you tell in these two comments, the republican majority in the state senate is toast.

The state senate republicans are not interested in go to the court. They have more for lose than the democrats. They are less interested still.


[ Parent ]
Syracuse
Hey, I just had that idea.

Somewhat similar map.

The major problem is that Owens would likely face a major problem in the primary from someone in Syracuse or nearby.

But I dont really see the Rs accepting a plan that does not excise the city of Syracuse from their districts: It is just too big of a pill for them to swallow without endangering their present incumbents.


Joe Cooper

[ Parent ]
I think the above map
is possible if there is a one seat loss.  Stat wise there is no doubt the lost seat should be upstate and logically therefore it should be a GOP seat. I suspect, however, if the GOP takes the hit the deal would be to keep Hinchley & Owen's seat somewhat competitve.  That's why I go back to axing CD26 or CD29.  Putting Buerkle and Hanna in a fair fight assures a really nice safe seat for Owens and Hinchley looks stronger too.

A one seat loss does mean, however, that the Buffalo /Rochester area is only 170K (or so) short of people as opposed to 270K(or so).  That does make the loss more likely to be in the 24 or 25 or 19 or 20 area.    

[ Parent ]
a few problems
Problem #1 is that Hinchey already lives on the far eastern side of his district in Hurley (which is just north of Kingston in Ulster County).  And if you swing him west to grab say Elmira or even Corning, Reed's home, then you risk making Nan Haysworth's district even more winnable for a Democrat because Hinchey would not take the Democratic cities (right now, Hinchey has Middletown, Poughkeepsie, and Newburgh... very, very Democratic cities).

I can see Bill Owens being given a more swing district and frankly a few more points and some time as "the congressman" will seal the deal for him, much as Hinchey at one time represented a dicey district that became firmed up for him over time.  But if you combined the 26th and the 29th, you would almost definitely have to split Onondaga in half and risk losing any chance of defeating Buerkle in the future.  I don't see where the upside at all in that map would be for the Democrats other than losing a Republican in the delegation.

[ Parent ]
A 5:5 upstate split
seems roughly fair. But I can't help feeling that Democrats really ought to have at least one more seat upstate.

Given the precarious position of the Republicans in the state senate, they may actually have to agree to let the Dems run the table on the Congressional map. I think that means that the Republicans also have to concede Hayworth's seat.  

[ Parent ]
partisan redistricting
Perhaps I ought to post a hypothetical map assuming that the Democrats held the State Senate this year but otherwise all the congressional Republicans won where they were.

I would draw a 24-4 map basically.  I'd leave Peter King alone out on LI (realistically a 3-1 split down there seems very reasonable) plus clout would carry more weight with downstate Democrats who need to tend to the City's interests (which always tend to get shafted by the rest of the country - that's just my opinion)... give Bishop all the minority voters he could dream for in Islip, give Israel most of Uniondale/Hempstead in Nassau County, give McCarthy a bit of Queens and make two Queens-Nassau districts.

In the City, I would annihilate Michael Grimm by using the Staten Island Ferry to chop Staten Island in two harmless parts, attaching both to Nadler/Maloney.  A bit of rejuggling here and this would make room for a new open VRA Hispanic or minority-majority coalition district.  Lowey and Hayworth would shuffle a few areas around to make the 19th a Democratic-leaning district.

Upstate would look about the same with one important difference: Reed and Lee would be combined together in a super-Republican district to design a replacement for the old Lafalce district nearby.  Higgins would get a slightly less packed Democratic seat also, and between packing the Republicans in Western New York in and drawing a less packed Democratic seat for Higgins, I would think a Niagara-based Democrat would do just fine.

[ Parent ]
I don't know
whether the Republicans would accept the bargain in that case.  They know they're kind of screwed, which is why you have convinced me that a traditional "fair fight" won't be the outcome this time (unless the Democrats are really hopeless negotiators but that applies in my opinion to the national party and not New York Democrats who play hardball).  So, therefore, Republicans will take a hit.  But I think it has to be done in such a way so they can save face, too.  By conceding not just the lost seat but another in addition as well just wouldn't work in my view.  I sympathize a lot with your feelings about this (a 6:4 split is infinitely doable without imperiling any upstate Democrat) but probably not likely.
[ Parent ]
The devil is in the details
If the Democrats agree to this map, the Republicans should get to attempt to protect their current incumbents in the senate map. That means that we do not allow the Republicans to attempt any "contingency" seats or to pad their margin in the senate.

The Republicans would, of course, prefer to draw whatever map they like for the senate. I might eventually offer them that deal, but the price, at a minimum, would be two of their Congressional incumbents.

The Democrats have the most to gain by walking away, so I think we may well see the draft of a court drawn map before either side gets serious.  

[ Parent ]
I agree...
This happened the past two cycles even when the Democrats had a much less bargaining power than they do now.  In 1992, the court plan more or less was adopted; in 2002 the state court already accepted the master's plan to merge Boehlert/Hinchey and Quinn/LaFalce until the plan terrified national party leaders from both parties, who then put pressure on Bruno and Silver to reach some sort of a deal.  

But a court plan would not necessarily be pro-Democratic, although court plans would help out tremendously on the State Senate level (although it would also mean more like a 95-55 or a 90-60 split in the State Assembly, which Silver would be pissed about).  I could very easily see them drawing Haysworth's district largely as I have it (as a community-of-interest district).  My guess is that the court master would draw a fair-fight in the Adirondacks/Upper Hudson area drawing Gibson and Owens into the same seat.  They'd then push the Utica seat (the current 24th) north to grab Watertown and possibly St. Lawrence, give Hinchey and Buerkle some of the southern edges of the current 24th, consolidate Higgins and Slaughter largely as I have it, and call it a day.

Where I fear a court plan the most is out on Long Island.  There, they would not cross county lines unless absolutely possible.  That means Israel gets a swing district.  This is because the most you could draw for him without Peter King reaching into the heavily Republican areas of the South Shore in Suffolk in exchange for Plainview and other heavily-Jewish areas in Nassau is probably a 54% Obama district.  I'm not sure McCarthy's district would be as safely Democratic either.  On the flip side, though, it might make it easier to go after Peter King.  But King's an institution out on Long Island, so that would be tough.

[ Parent ]
If the Dems have the guts to swallow
the prospect of a mid-cycle redistricting, they should think very seriously about accepting a court-drawn plan.

Prudence almost requires that they at least wait to see what the special master would give them.  

[ Parent ]
yes just this is my point

A 21-7 map without NY-25 is the minimum what the democrats can accept in the case of the republican majority in the state senate become solid (without no-one like P Espada). But if not, the republicans will need to concede more in the redistricting of the congressional seats.

I think the congressional redistricting will be more important than the redistricting of the state senate for the democrats. I know not exactly the rating of all the state senate districts, but still some D+ districts are be in republican hands. I think the democrats can take again the senate in 2012 without benefits from redistricting the state senate, only working harder in the most favorable state senate districts.

Then surely you are right.

[ Parent ]
This is obviously more of a thought experiment than something practical,
but here's my Republicans-inexplicably-concede-on-House-districts map (the andgarden scenario) for your consideration:

This map pairs all six of the upstate Republicans into three seperate districts, which is sort of a 2000-Michigan map in reverse. Of the twelve districts north of NYC, only one voted for McCain. The others are in the 54% - 59% Obama range.

17 (dark blue) & 18 (yellow) are drawn in more for reference than as an actual proposal. 18 is taking in part of Putnam and much of Westchester. As drawn, it is 250 people short of ideal and a 59-40 Obama district. 17 has the very most Republican parts of Orange, all of Rockland, and roughly its current territory in Westchester. As drawn, it's ~133k short of ideal, which would have to come from some part of the Bronx, and a 59-40 Obama district.

(The remaining districts range from 150 short of ideal to 865 over ideal. To the best of my knowledge, I didn't split any municipality other than Buffalo.)

19 (olive) gets the ax, and the number is reused to replace 29. (I believe NY renumbers each cycle, but I kept the other numbers in place for comparison.)

20 (pink) pairs Hayworth and Gibson into an east-bank-of-the-Hudson district. 55-44 Obama.

21 (maroon) pulls a bit north, but remains centered on the Albany-Schenectady region. 56-42 Obama.

22 (brown) compacts itself into a west-bank-of-the-Hudson district, losing its arm out to Binghamton and Ithaca. 54-45 Obama.

23 (aquamarine) becomes an upside-down-U-shaped district stretching from Oswego to Saratoga & Washington Counties. This fails to keep Hoffman out of the district. 54-45 Obama.

24 (indigo) is an open seat. It drops Rome and most of Onieda besides Utica. In exchange, it picks up Binghamton and Ithaca. 55-43 Obama.

25 (dark rose) pairs Hanna and Buerkle in a Syracuse-Rome seat. 54-44 Obama.

26 (dark grey) drops Lee's hometown and more-or-less replaces the ear-muffs. It takes in northeast Buffalo and some of its northern suburbs, all of Niagara and Orleans, and then some of Rochester's western suburbs. 55-44 Obama.

27 (spring green) picks up Cattaraugus County, but is otherwise pretty much the same. 54-44 Obama.

28 (violet) contracts largely into Monroe County. 59-40 Obama.

29 becomes 19 (olive) and pairs Lee and Reed. The sole McCain district upstate, it occupies most of rural western NY. 55-44 McCain.

Say the andgarden scenario came to pass (perhaps trading the Republicans the senate map and not harming Grimm and King for these three paired upstate districts). Do you think this is an effective map? Or are those 54 and 55 percent Obama districts too risky?

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

[ Parent ]
I wouldn't say that this
is my scenario. In short, I think the Republicans need to have about 3-4 of these districts, otherwise Democrats risk winning none of them.  
[ Parent ]
interesting map...
Were we to still have the trifecta in redistricting, this might be an interesting map.  I worry, though, that a number of these seats would have flipped this fall.  Obama did exceptionally strong for a national Democrat in upstate New York - this provided the difference between Kerry's 59% vote out of New York State in 2004 vs. Obama's 63%.  I am not so sure, though, that downballot a Democrat can necessarily count on these voters.  Then again, the current bipartisan map has resulted in as high as a 27-2 delegation split this past decade vs. (hard to believe) an 18-11 split at the start of the decade.  So, who knows?
[ Parent ]
Here's my Democratic gerrymander of Upstate New York assuming 28 seats
Photobucket

Bronx-Westchester-Hudson Valley

Photobucket


District 17 (purple) Engel-D Obama 60, McCain 39
Co-op City (where Engel lives) and heavily-black areas of the North Bronx cancel out McCain leaning voters elsewhere in the district, although Democratic performance is likely a few points higher than this.  Since Engel is militantly pro-Israel, many of the McCain Jewish voters of Rockland/Orange will have no problems voting for him.

District 18 (yellow) Lowey-D vs. Haysworth-R Obama 59, McCain 41

Buh-bye Nan!  Lowey is safe here.

District 19 (puky green-yellow) Vacant (Hall-D?) Obama 59, McCain 40

Created a river seat that, although it goes as far south as the Yonkers border, people in Dutchess/Orange won't feel bitter about being drowned out too much by downstaters.  That's the problem with some of the maps that I saw on here last year that dipped further downstate to help Hall; politics is always local.  Hudson Valley residents may be receptive now to voting for a Democrat (Hall was congressman after all for 4 years), but they still distrust the City.  I can't tell you how many times I heard during my childhood how the "City was stealing our water."  Safe for a Westchester or Hudson Valley Democrat.

Photobucket

Eastern New York

District 20 (pink) Tonko-D vs. Gibson-R Obama 59, McCain 40

Buh-bye Gibson!  Made Tonko's district even safer by combining relatively Democratic areas like Columbia County (where Gibson happens to live!), all of Renssalaer, which is 50/50 in the part now in Gibson's district, with Albany, Schenectady and just as much as I needed in Montgomery County to grab Tonko's home and equalize the population.  

District 21 (maroon) Hinchey-D Obama 57, McCain 41

Becomes about a point redder but Hinchey should be fine as the district is largely the same as before.

District 22 (brown) Hanna-R vs. Hoffman-C? Obama 45, McCain 53

One of two Republican vote-sinks upstate New York.  Hoffman might make a go of this district; one can only hope that he runs again as the Conservative Party candidate - this might give an opening for Arcuri to come back into Congress.  If not, it safely grabs Republican votes away from the rest of the surrounding Democratic districts.

District 23 (light blue) Owens-D Obama 54, McCain 44

A D +1.5 district is about as good as you can do without endangering Tonko or the Syracuse district designed for a Maffei comeback.  Besides, we need to be purely tactical about this, given the abomination that is the Citizens United case.  I want to limit as much as possible the districts in this map that Republicans can play for.  If we leave just two swing seats upstate New York and keep the rest solidly Democratic-performing, it will make the national party happier as they can spend their scant resources in other less hospitable states.

District 24 Buerkle-R (but not for much longer!) Obama 58, McCain 41

Designed to help Maffei or Arcuri make a comeback.  I'd prefer Maffei though.

District 25 (red-pink) Reed-R vs. Lee-R Obama 43, McCain 55

The other major Republican vote-sink in New York.  Let's see who can out-tea partier the other.

Western New York

Photobucket

District 26 (slate grey) Slaughter-D Obama 59, McCain 40

Slaughter is not likely to last the full ten years, so we have got to create a seat that will remain safe for us in an open-seat situation.

District 27 (green) Vacant Obama 54, McCain 44

Created only a lean-Democratic seat rather than a full-blooded one because I did not want to risk the Monroe County seat flipping once Slaughter retired.  This district's PVI probably understates Democratic performance a bit though, Niagara County has always been in the lean Democratic camp when a presidential candidate or a gubenatorial candidate romps New York in a landslide.  Obama, however, only won about 50-51%; probably this is due to latent racism among white ethnics in Western New York.  Still, a Democrat in the mold of former congressman LaFalce will do just fine here.  And, if, for some chance a Republican can win this district - like Owen's - it limits the amount of districts they can spend their illegal foreign money on to just two.  Need to be tactical here.

District 28 (pink-purple) Higgins-D Obama 56, McCain 42

Again, Obama's PVI probably understates Democratic performance by a good 2-4 points here, and besides Higgins has cross-over appeal.  The district is no less Democratic than the current one he represents, so I'm not worried here.

[ Parent ]
i'd argue that it wasn't racism
but a decline in unionized blue-collar workers that vote dem (the same pheonomenon as in the rust belt (e. oh/w. pa/n. wv) and to some extent Scranton-Wilkes-Barre, although Biden being from there helped a bit

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
possibly...
didn't think of that.  Although it is a bit hard to tell given how crazy Western NY is currently districted, I'd suspect that that the non-black Democratic areas of Niagara and Erie County voted heavily for Clinton in the primary against Obama, although she also had a home-state advantage which might throw off the comparison a bit.  Clinton famously clinched the deal in 2000 against Rick Lazio when during a debate in Buffalo between them, Lazio gave a so out of touch answer to the economic problems of Western NY that make Bush I's looking at his watch look minor comparatively.  Lazio (from LI) effectively said there was no economic problems in Western NY or Upstate NY in general!
[ Parent ]
NY 28 seats,
Another try at a 28 seat Bipartisan deal.

Here, Owens is axed, and CD25 is the swing district

        Old Dist       New Dist      Incumbent
        Obama vote     Obama vote

CD19         51            49         Haysworth      R
CD20         51            48         Gibson         R
CD21         58            59         Tonko          R
CD22         59            59         Hinchey        D
CD23         52            52         Hanna/Owens    Lean R
CD24         51            gone       Hanna goes to CD23    
CD25         56            54         Buerkle       Lean R/S
CD26         46            45         Lee            R
CD27         54            64         Higgins        D
CD28         69            59         Slaughter      D
CD29/24      48            47         Reed           R

The boundary between CD24 and CD25 can easily be adjusted to reflect between 53-55% Obama, as the negotiations proceed.

If the Dems can redistrict again after 2012, the boundary CD24/CD25 can be cleaned up to make a Democratic CD25, a Democratic CD13, and a Democratic CD13.
              D    R    S
Delegation now 20   9
Above plan     19   8    1

Just for fun, I left Hoffman in CD23.  In my dreams,  the R negotiators overlook this.

Much of CD23 would be new to Hanna, but the most populous area, Oneida, would be transferred with him into it.  Owens 4 year roll of the dice should be over, unless the tea party decides that Hanna is not barking to their drum.

Photobucket

Joe Cooper

interesting map
particularly if the Republicans play hardball, which no reasonable logical person should expect them not to, given how much the national stakes are.  Two points, one minor, one semi-major.

1) New York renumbers its districts every ten years.  Thus under this, the district you label the 24th would actually become the 28th.  This has been the custom in New York since time inmemorial unlike, ahem, some states that have confusing maps that go all over the place.

2) I know this has been asked elsewhere here on SSP but can a district (your 20th) completely surround another (your 21st).  To be legal, I might give the 21st all of Renssalaer County and swap some of the Republican townships in your current 21st with the 20th.  I know when I drew this kind of district, I was able to give Tonko a 58/59% Obama district no problemo.

Am working on a community-of-interest map right now under the scenario that the process doesn't resolve itself through the legislative process and goes to the courts.  On the plus side, it yields much neater districts that actually represent discrete jurisdictions.  On the other hand, it makes a lot of swing seats that will some of the heads of some people on here implode!  Will be posting hopefully in the next few days.

[ Parent ]
just noticed...
Tonko doesn't live in your 21st.  He lives in Amsterdam, which is in Montgomery County.
[ Parent ]
Amsterdam
Adjusted the map to include Amsterdam.  Left out the rest of Montgomery County.

Joe Cooper
[ Parent ]
The idea that it's illegal
to completely surround one district with another just came out of nowhere, so far as I can tell. It might apply to state legislative maps somewhere, but it has nothing to do with Congressional redistricting.

[ Parent ]
Renstader County
I have already included the Democratc precincts in the Renstader county in CD21.  

I tried including all of it, and I tried going west, and still remained at 59% for CD21.  

Joe Cooper

[ Parent ]
The map seems like a republican gerrymander

This can not be supported by the state house.

Go to the court before accept this.

[ Parent ]
no offense
but your concern trolling is starting to irritate me.  Why don't you show us what a "Democratic" gerrymander in your world looks like, that follows the law, and lives in actual reality!  Look, the Democrats lost the State Senate.  Acting like Democrats hold a trifecta in redistricting next year when we don't doesn't change the fact that we don't hold a trifecta next year.  I'm sorry for being rude here, but put up or shut up.
[ Parent ]
If the democrats would have the trifecta

If the democrats would have the trifecta I think you would see a very different map of the 21-7 what I'm giving as the minimum acceptable.

Trolling? well I can think the same about you supporting maps what give still more advantages to the republicans, despite the democrats have far more advantage than 32-30 in the state house, and have too the governor. No offense but I understand not your "ultra-partisan" democratic ways.

[ Parent ]
After see the results of the 2008 cycle

Where only two republicans survive, do you think the democrats will accept 7 or 8 safe districts for the republicans?

I think this is not realistic.

[ Parent ]
All this fear of Doug Hoffman
Now a two-time loser.

I don't think Bill Owens, Chris Gibson, or Dick Hanna has a thing to fear from him now. If Hoffman runs again, it'll be for gadfly reasons. Tea partiers can (and I suspect will) find fresher faces.

I agree

[ Parent ]
Trying to Predict Redistricting in New York | 79 comments

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