Honestly, I don't really like this map all that much

In a really bad year, I could see every single last one of these districts go to the Republicans (in fact, I'd bet money right here that Kerry lost the new NM-01 and NM-03 (or at least barely won it).

Plus, it's worth mentioning that your district lines would have probably meant Congressman-elect Barela this year.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

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by: DGM @ Mon Dec 06, 2010 at 01:18:55 AM UTC

Very interesting

Any idea what the hispanic numbers would be in each district?

The Heinrich district is close to 45% now--It looks like your map shrinks that %--not sure without your info.

Either way its a fascinating example what technology can do as you evenly split the state three more or less equal ways.

In 2008 yup that's three big wins for Obama in each district but it appears that in 2010 each of these districts would produce a Martinez win for Gov.

New Mexico the classic tossup state and you have fascinating three way split. This map would guarantee lots of competitive house races.

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by: rdelbov @ Mon Dec 06, 2010 at 01:29:01 AM UTC

Revised map

This is a revision.  In this map I try to keep the current reps in their districts.  1-Heinrich, 2-Pearce, 3-Lujan.

http://i1215.photobucket.com/a...

The 1st includes all of Albuquerque, its Obama 59%, with 42% Latino.

The 2nd is Steve Pearce's district including Hobbs, its Obama 54-44%, an improvement over the 50-49% it is now, with 45% Latino.

The 3rd is Ben Lujan's Santa Fe district, its 57-42 Obama%, with 39% Latino.

I think NM is a swing state and I think any party could probably win all three of these districts.  

These maps are designed to get as many Democrats elected as possible and the only way to do that is to "spread the wealth": make heavily Democratic districts a little less Democratic so we can make those Republican-leaning districts a little less Republican.  

Whether you use my map or somebody else's, the goal for the Democrats is to make the 2nd more Democratic.  You can do that by taking Democrats from either the 1st or the 3rd and putting them into the 2nd.

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by: sysm29 @ Mon Dec 06, 2010 at 03:52:58 AM UTC

This map almost certainly endangers Lujan

And it still doesn't guarantee that Pearce loses his seat (Obama's 54-44 is atypical of this area, Kerry would have probably lost this district by at least 8-9 points).

Trying to take out Pearce right now still involves endangering either Heinrich or Lujan (or both) too much for my tastes.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

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by: DGM @ Mon Dec 06, 2010 at 04:12:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't really get a map like this

that significantly weakens Lujan and Heinrich right after they both had some reelection struggles. Beyond that it's a Democratic gerrymander, (or dummymander), right after the state elected a Republican governor, so its all moot in looking at what might happen or would be in the Democrats best interests to push, and that is, in my opinion, t shift Heinrich's district a few points to the left, while keeping Lujan's district's partisan make-up the same; thus shifting really Pearce's district 2-3 points to the right mainly.  

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by: jwaalk @ Mon Dec 06, 2010 at 19:20:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

To be honest, it's in everyone's best interest to keep the map at 2-1

Weakening Pearce means weakening either Lujan or Heinrich (or both), the Obama numbers overstate Democratic strength in the state (particularly in the south). I have no doubt that New Mexico is a left-leaning swing state, but Obama's 15-point win is deceptive.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

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by: DGM @ Mon Dec 06, 2010 at 20:08:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

mmm I think not the same here

I think a 3-0 map with 57% Obama now would be good for the democrats because the hispanic population in the state countinues increasing, and in few years you can see this 57% becoming 58% or 59% in the end of the decade. And this would be so safe.

In this case a 3-0 map well balanced may benefit to the democrats.

The first map of the diary is better balanced than the second. Cause of this I like more the fist.

While for Iowa I find not a 4-0 for New Mexico I find a 3-0 map. The state is still D+2 (Iowa D+1) but becoming more blue.

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by: abgin @ Mon Dec 06, 2010 at 20:47:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree

I'm kind of thinking that the basic district lines will change very little, with the most significant changes having more to do with population changes (the 1st is bigger than the 2nd and third) than anything else. Maybe swap Cibola County from the 2nd into the 3rd for a few White areas in the east.  

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

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by: Nico @ Tue Dec 07, 2010 at 23:13:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

What will the theme of the 2012

redistricting be?  The creation of many evenly matched seats that will lead to contested elections  during the 10 year cycle?  Or will we see each party try to lock up seats?

For a variety of reasons that question will be settled on a state by state basis.  New Mexico-again like 2000-has split control.  In 2001 no agreement was made between a GOP governor and democratic legislators.  The exact same situation is occuring in 2011.  In 2002 a state judge just barely modified the lines for population changes.  What will happen in 2011?

My crystal ball is fuzzy but I suspect the democrats will slightly strengthen Lujan while the GOP will agree to a slight move to the republican side in Pierce's seat.  Then CD #1 will more or less stay urban based with a democratic lean.

The last four elections in CD#1 has been an good example of why hispanics are still under represented in Congress.  Several hispanics failed to beat GOP congresswoman Wilson.  You certainly saw some voting along racial lines as hispanics ran behind democratic numbers for this district in 2004/2006.

Then when the seat opened up in 2008 Heinrich won the democratic primary when the Hispanic vote split.  In 2010 Heinrich ran ahead of Gov elect  Martinez in this district as it appears either hispanics would not go for the GOP hispanic candidate or swing white voters went to Heinrich. I appreciate any info on this that any posters would have.  

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by: rdelbov @ Mon Dec 06, 2010 at 12:56:24 PM UTC

alrightey then, i guess keeping the map we have is good enough.

2010 was a terrible year, the republicans will control redistricting again, the new maps will probably be terrible, 2012 is going to be a tough year too, and so the logic for democrats is still defense, since we're not sure if we can risk anything anymore so we better not take any chances.  sounds like the democrats.

i do wish that we could see the party information for some big swing states like ohio, michigan, and illinois.

also: anyone have any luck cracking california?  its too big to download.  texas took a while but it did work, california just shuts down my computer completely.

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by: sysm29 @ Mon Dec 06, 2010 at 20:31:24 PM UTC

Or, more precisely, an incumbent protection map

To strengthen all three incumbents.

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by: emilysdad @ Mon Dec 06, 2010 at 22:50:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That is what

 I did recently and posted on my blog at http://frogandturtle.blogspot.... I have not posted it here yet though. My plan basically strengthens Pearce to give him a very Republican district, Lujan is strengthened alot too and Heinrich is somewhat strengthened. As you'll see, the lines will be a bit different from the previous map but still serve the purpose of incumbent protection.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....

17, CA-06,  

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by: Alibguy @ Mon Dec 06, 2010 at 23:49:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Strengthen Heinrich more

Lujan represents a district that is almost impossible for Democrats to lose; very few ticket splitters and quite a liberal lean to it.  

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by: jwaalk @ Tue Dec 07, 2010 at 00:21:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not so fast

I drew a map here that makes Pearce's district about 4% more democratic by weakening Lujan and Heinrich just slightly. I specifically went out of my way to ensure that both Heinrich and Lujan would have won this year under this map (based on the overall shift in PVI, although it's possible that Heinrich did better than Obama in some areas and worse in others to a level that this would affect the map). Heinrich's district is maybe vulnerable in a great year for Republicans, but even this year with low turnout among lower-income and hispanic voters, a strong top-ballot effect, and a good candidate in Barela, the Republicans still would have come up short against Heinrich on this map, and Lujan would still have won comfortably. Pearce would still have beat Harry Teague under this map, but much more narrowly. This essential is the best I can do, turning the map from 1 Safe D, 1 Lean D, and 1 Lean R into 1 Safe D, 1 Lean D, and 1 Tossup, not necessarily a great improvement for democrats, but still something.  

Male, VA-08

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by: drobertson @ Fri Dec 10, 2010 at 01:30:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]