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A possible Gerrymander of Massachusetts

by: Marcus

Sun Dec 05, 2010 at 5:47 PM EST


The assumption behind this map is that Capuano runs for Senate and all other incumbents are protected.  All cities and towns are kept intact, excepting Boston.

Boston Detail:

Marcus :: A possible Gerrymander of Massachusetts
1st district - Oliver (Blue)
Gains some Worcester suburbs and some 495 belt towns, which makes it slightly more conservative, but at D+14 it has some room to spare.

2nd District - Neal (Green)
Adds a couple Republican towns in the East and Democratic ones in the West, overall not much changed.

3rd District - McGovern (Purple)
Keeps its Worcester and Fall River anchors, in fact gaining the portion of Fall River that Frank used to have.  The district shifts slightly, losing the Northern suburbs of Worcester and gaining other towns in Norfolk and Bristol counties.  Overall, not much change in partisan composition.

4th District - Frank (Red)
Like the 3rd, this district retains it's anchors, but shifts slightly East.

5th District - Tsongas (Gold)
This district is made safer, swapping its 495 belt towns for more liberal towns in the Metrowest area.  (Fun fact: Framingham, at 67,000 inhabitants, is the largest town in New England)

6th District - Tierney (Teal)
Embattled rep Tierney needs some shoring up, so he gets the biggest prize from Capuano's district: Cambridge and Somerville.  While this should make him safe in the general, if Tierney's ethics troubles get any worse, he could be vulnerable in the primary, especially since much of the territory in this district is new to him.

7th District - Markey (Gray)
This district, while picking up the Alston-Brighton neighborhood of Boston, gets slightly more conservative overall, as it trades the metrowest towns that Tsongas picked up for some more conservative ones that Tierney lost. At D+15 it still has a strong liberal inner suburb base and should be fine.

8th District - Lynch (Periwinkle)
Lynch's district changes radically in order to preserve the majority-minority district required (maybe?) by the VRA.  Lynch may not be too happy about this, since he has the most conservative voting record of any of the delegation and will now have a very Liberal district.  He could be vulnerable to a primary challenge, perhaps from State Senator Sonia Chang-Diaz.

9th District - Keating (Cyan)
This district doesn't change much, unfortunately.  There are only so many ways to draw a district that stretches from Quincy to Cape Cod.  If O'Leary had won the primary we would have had more options.

The new 8th district is 48% non-hispanic white, which is comparable to the current 8th.  Just for fun, I tried to draw a district that would bring this number as low as possible:


40% White, 27% Black, 10% Asian, 21% Hispanic, 2% other.
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A possible Gerrymander of Massachusetts | 29 comments
nice job!

great map--possible abuse of the word Gerrymander
as this map seems more compact then the current one.  In the current map it appears you can be in North Quincy and take a five mile walk to Brookline and cross four congressional district lines.  Mind you I have not a clue whether you could actually walk from Quincy across South Boston to Brookline or Newton.  I don't even know if that would be a wise decision?

Not sure why but my spider sense tells me that Markey gets Cambridge-Tierney Somerville and as noted Lynch gets a lot of Boston.

Not quite as much as shown as Lynch has friends on Beacon Hill.

I also would not be shocked to see Frank get Cambridge and to see Lynch somehow take just a bit more of Boston but rather get area west or east of Brockton.

Just a guess--

I would connect Lynch into
the more conservative areas of Plymouth county, like Brockton.  
[ Parent ]
You mean liberal?
Brockton is the Democratic anchor of Plymouth County.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Not a wise decision
to walk through Dorchester/Mattapan. At night, anyway. (Southie is nowhere near where you'd walk to get from Quincy to Brookline.)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
This is something I've wondered about actually
A lot of people who live in other neighborhoods view Dorchester with some sort of mythic fear, though people I've talked to who live there say most of it really isn't that bad and there's only certain spots that should be avoided.  So provided you pick a good route, walking from Quincy to Brookline should be fine.  I would also recommend daytime though.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
Eh:
What's wrong with Southie? I've walked through there on many an afternoon without much problem.
[ Parent ]
Southie is safer now
It was a haven for mob activity until about 20 years ago, when Whitey Bulger went on the lamb. It's quieter now, and has seen moderate diversification (as in 75% Irish now instead of 90%.)

Dorchester, to the best of my knowledge, has a few really bad sections (mainly due to gang and drug violence) but also has some areas that aren't that bad and are comparable to Southie. On the whole it's safer than Roxbury, which isn't a good place to walk even during the daytime.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Dorchester
Dorchester is too big and too internally diverse to sustain generalizations.
[ Parent ]
Exactly
You have middle class, single-family homes, and then a block or two away you have a housing project and a street corner notorious for gangs and prostitution. The area's a melting pot and a haven for immigrants from all nations, as it always has been.

But on the whole, Roxbury is the rougher neighborhood, unless you consider the gentrified Mission Hill and Northeastern University part of Roxbury.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Did I say anything about Southie?


28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
Yes, Dorchester does have ok parts.
As MassGOP mentions downthread, it's not as bad as Roxbury, which probably earns the distinction of sketchiest neighborhood in Boston. My dad has told me that I shouldn't ride the Orange Line.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
er
downthread from the post I replied to, upthread from this reply. lol

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I ride the Orange line somewhat regularly
Including late at night.  I've never felt threatened myself, but I have heard other people say that they don't like it.  

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
It's the green line I don't like
Not because it goes to sketchy neighborhoods, but because I always feel like the thing is about to come off the tracks. The screeching noise it makes every time it goes around a corner aren't exactly comforting. With the red and orange, at least I know I'm going to get where I'm going alive.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Never been on the green.
I heard it's like a trolley though? what's up with that?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
It's a hybrid trolley-subway thing
The Red, Orange and Blue are normal trains, like the subways in most other cities. The Green is kind of like a trolley in that it runs right down the middle of the streets for part of its route, and then ducks underground once you get into downtown Boston. The cars are old and make awful noises, but it is at least a pretty convenient way to get across the city from east to west.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
America's first subway!
I'm sure it was awfully impressive in the 1890s...

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
Nice job!
Another alternative might be to attach Newton to MA-08, let Frank run there, and then wipe out MA-04.
I like the suggestion
I feel that even if Capuano vacates the seat, the 8th won't be dismembered, because too much power resides in the region, the district makes sense as designed, population loss dictates changes out west, and parts of the district would too strongly influence whatever districts they end up in. It's better to make the 8th the new de facto 4th by putting Brookline and/or Newton in it and giving southeastern Mass. its own district, and by doing some merging out west.

This map shows how ridiculously you have to stretch the lines to preserve two districts west of Worcester. It doesn't work any more.  

[ Parent ]
Still Too Big For Just One District, Though...
Either the Worcester-based 3rd or Lowell-based 5th would have to be sent well into Western Mass if the 1st and 2nd are combined.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03
[ Parent ]
Right
I wouldn't combine them, I would move the Springfield area into the 1st district and create a 2nd district based in metro Worcester and the eastern parts of the current 1st and 2nd.  
[ Parent ]
I don't see how that's different from what Answer Guy said.


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I (Mostly) Like This Map
The 5th and 6th need help and the 7th can stand some dilution, and this accomplishes all three admirably.

However...I'd be a little nervous about the 3rd long-term. It's a D+9 as it stands now but this version looks more like a swing district, adding a handful of towns where Scott Brown absolutely cleaned up a year ago that are largely out of the Worcester orbit.

This is where respecting communities of interests can be good politics. I looked at the MA-03 results this year and noticed something...while all of the towns around Worcester voted enthusiastically for Scott Brown and most were at least carried by Charlie Baker, GOP challenger Marty Lamb didn't even match John McCain's 2008 strength there, but he won several towns in the district's midsection of Boston and/or Providence exurbs.  

I know that when I'm trying to draw these maps, I'm always trying to stick Framingham with McGovern, as a Democratic buffer in the case of a bad year and/or open seat. (Of course they'd vehemently deny they were in Central Mass, but they have shared interests in the Mass Pike, the MBTA commuter rail line that follows it, and the tech industry that is the economic engine of that part of the state.)

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

you might as well add Natick too.
it's fairly Democratic, voting narrowly for Coakley, and in my mind for whatever reason Framingham and Natick are a set.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Good analysis of Central MA
I know you're originally from here, and I can tell you that the Worcester area has gotten no less parochial in my lifetime. That's McGovern's source of strength--he's the most powerful figure in Worcester politics, with his strong ties to the local unions and good constituent services, and people from the more Republican suburbs vote for him because he's likable and from Worcester, and Central MA folks stick together.

Like you said, the southern part of the district is out of the Worcester orbit and doesn't have that allegiance to McGovern. Those exurbs/Providence suburbs in Bristol County have become more Republican recently and went strongly for Lamb this year.

What to do with redistricting? McGovern will be safe in any district that contains Worcester, but there's actually more unfriendly territory around than you would think. Worcester County, especially the southern part, has trended Republican recently, so you wouldn't want to add parts of Neal's district. Framingham would be a good option, as would be New Bedford, or Fitchburg/Leominster if you want to take it in the other direction.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Depends on the Town
The Blackstone Valley, which used to be pretty solidly Democratic, has definitely moved rightward in the last 20 years..sort of the opposite of what a cluster of upscale Metrowest towns, formerly a hotbed of Rockefeller Republicanism, has done, as they've begun to favor Dems heavily.

To echo what I was saying earlier....even in the most problematic BV towns (generally the ones closer to RI/CT.. though Webster, which is quite a bit more urban then most of them and really only peripherally BV anyway, has its share of Dems) I'd expect a Worcester-based representative to have an easier go of it than a guy from Springfield.

The reason it makes sense to have Neal handle most of that is that Springfield is more baseline Democratic than Worcester and there's nothing comparable to Northampton in Central Mass. That said, I don't see McGovern or someone like him doing any worse in Millbury than he does in neighboring Auburn. Similarly I don't see Leicester, Oxford, or Sutton as being especially toxic for him either, especially not if the feasible alternatives were Mansfield or Walpole or something.

Although adding the rest of Fall River might be enough. Fall River and next door Somerset serve as a decent firewall; although they are remote, Republicans don't do well there at any level.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
One More Thing
The 9th, ugh. That's always going to be in danger. As drawn there it's probably even closer to being evenly split than the 10th it replaces is now PVI-wise.

Most of the smaller towns added vote Republican regularly. The biggest add is Braintree, which is not especially good for Dems either, but at least they are urbanized and far more likely to be familiar with former Norfolk County DA Keating than they would be with a Plymouth County or Cape-based GOP challenger.

If you could somehow figure out a way to get Randolph in there (sizable middle-class black population, in Norfolk County so familiar with Keating, and very Democratic, moreso than Brockton in fact) it would be a significant help.

Although if for some reason we're stuck with a 50/50 swing district down there because of a VRA issue, irritating the hell out of Stephen Lynch is a nice consolation prize.



36, M, Democrat, MD-03

Comment needed for Wall Street Journal article
Hey,

Could you please contact me at danny.yadron@wsj.com?

Thanks so much,
Danny

A possible Gerrymander of Massachusetts | 29 comments

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