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Iowa: 2-1-1

by: abgin

Sat Dec 04, 2010 at 3:34 AM EST


Not always I want leave in 0 to the republicans. Iowa is not a state for want it. My map for Iowa find 2D-1Swing-1R.

Habitually I bid not for the states without political data, because still I have enough with California or Pennsylvania (maybe later) for think in other states, but I have a idea what make so easy the calculus and I think the result of the bid help for it.
abgin :: Iowa: 2-1-1
This is the map:

Photobucket

CD-01: B Braley (D)
57.98% Obama => D+5 (Currently D+5)
Based in Davenport (3rd city in Iowa)
Includes all of: Scott, Clinton, Jackson, Dubuque, Delaware, Clayton, Allamakee, Buchanan, Fayette, Winneshiek, Black Howk, Bremer, Chickasaw, Howard, Grundy, Butler, Floyd, Mitchell, Worth, Cerro Gordo and Franklin counties.

CD-02: D Loebsack (D)
57.97% Obama => D+5 (Currently D+7)
Based in Cedar Rapids (2nd city in Iowa)
Includes all of: Jones, Cedar, Muscatine, Louisa, Des Moines, Linn, Johnson, Washington, Henry, Lee, Benton, Iowa, Keokuk, Jefferson, Van Buren, Tama, Poweshiek, Mahaska, Wapello, Davis, Monroe, Appanoose, Lucas and Wayne counties.

CD-03: L Boswell (D) and T Latham (R)
53.75% Obama => D+1 (Currently D+1 and EVEN)
Based in Des Moines (1st city in Iowa)
Includes all of: Hardin, Marshall, Jasper, Marion, Hamilton, Story, Polk, Warren, Clarke, Boone, Dallas and Madison.

CD-04: S King (R)
46.05% Obama => R+7 (Currently R+9)
Based in Sioux City (4th city in Iowa)
Includes all of: The rest of the counties.

They are compact districts what respect the boundaries of the counties and respect the unity of the metropolitan areas in the state.

The new CD-01 and CD-02 districts are in risk of lose some point in the Cook PVI rating because both districts must asume new areas from districts with less democratic rating. Still I think this model for redistricting Iowa keep booth enough safe. The same reason make the future CD-04 down from R+9 until R+6.

The new CD-03 can give a decent chance to L Boswell because every bid for make a new district here what keep all the Polk county inside the district will give a strong position to L Boswell against T Latham.
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Iowa: 2-1-1 | 28 comments
More likely it's 2-2 map
Latham is quite able to win D+1 district and Boswell doesn't becomes younger with each passing year..
I would not give Boswell as death as easily

It is very difficult to divide the basis what support L Boswell in Polk and Marshall counties. This was enough for make him win this year. In addition the democrats from Story county (where is T Latham's home) can take Boswell as better than T Latham. Boswell is not a generic some dude.
[ Parent ]
I think the comission will probably come up with something similar


28, Unenrolled, MA-08
Very interesting Map
thanks for posting it--compact to a tee and very logical.

I am not sure who would be madder-the democrats or the GOP is this map was adopted.

1. Boswell loses lots of familar territory and gains a bunch of counties that went republican in 2010. Even the county with Ames only went 49-46 for the democrat candidate for Gov.  Yup he is getting older.  Braley just survives and he gets new area added that is republican oriented--not heavily republican but remember with redistricting.  Its not 2014-2020 that congressman worry about its 2012.  

2. Latham obviousily gets the shaft under this plan but does not have options.

Here's a bold guess on my part. Iowa is supposed to be nonpartisan and just let the computer spin redistricting.  Generally speaking the 2000 plan was unfavorable to the GOP IMO. IMO 1990 was more to the GOP liking-over time that is.  So the roll of the dice favors the GOP this year.  I look for a fair fight between either Latham and Braley or Latham and Braley.

Just absolute wild guess.  

thanks

Making it I see what B Braley, D Loebsack and S King must assume a territory less favorable for them.

Surely B Braley have the best chance of keep the rating of his current district, because the noth-east of the current CD-04 was so democratic in 2008 with counties what vote 60% for Obama. If I'm not wrong B Braley wins 50-48 in November. Then can keep the D+5 rating like in this model is necessary for him.

D Loebsack must take some counties from the current CD-03. Some of these counties vote for McCain, cause of that, the district down from D+7 to D+5. But this seems the best way for expand the CD-02. Still I think this can be enough for keep him safe in a bad republican wave. D Loebsack wins 51-46 this year. The republicans only wins IL-10 (open and with the old republican incumbent winning the senate race) with better rating than D+5 in November.

The alone counties with better result in 2008 than 53% Obama (D+1) included not in the future CD-01 and CD-02 (in my map) are just:

Story: 57% Obama (The home of T Latham).
Polk: 56% Obama (The home of L Boswell).
Marshall: 54% Obama

They are just the counties what give to the future CD-03 the rating of D+1.

In this map I want not the limits, but the limits are not far from this map.

[ Parent ]
Sound points
and you could be very right about the two Eastern congressman.

I can't claim to be an expert on Corn but one reason McCain so poorly in Iowa-parts of rural Mo/IL/IN/Ohio was his views on Ethanol.  He has been the #1 foe against the tax subsidy (not corn for gas in general just the tax break for it)and it hurt him in the farm belt.

The Corn belt went strong against democrats in 2010. Corn prices were done-farm income was 30% in 2009/2010 then in 2008.  That's one reason for weakness for the democrats from ND to Kansas  Eastward to Ohio.  

I am sure exactly-as is anyone-exactly how this will play out in 2012 in Iowa or elsewhere.  Corn is a hot topic in DC right now and if prices decline between now and 2012 someone in the Corn belt will pay a political price.  

My round about point is that that in the two Eastern districts we see them become more rural & Ag based which could make them much more volatile.  

[ Parent ]
I think it's a good map for Latham
He's been representing most of the counties around Polk anyway, and he gets to keep Dallas. He would be in good shape to hold this kind of district in my opinion.
[ Parent ]
Looks about right
I wonder if R+6 is too moderate for Steve King

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
If it is
He should be replaced with a Republican who can win an R+6 district. Forgive me, but I'm chomping at the bit to get rid of that guy!

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Me too.
He called the government settling the Pigford II civil case reparations for slavery and that Obama is just paying back his urban AA supporters.  I'd rather see King bumped off and Latham running for that district.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
The district in not far of R+7

but gets in R+6.

It is the consecuence of the need of assume new territory. They are counties what McCain win in 2008 but not by very high margin. Currently S King has the most republican counties.

[ Parent ]
The numbers

Obama wins in 2008 with 52.92%
The new CD-04 would have 46.05%

The difference is 6.87%. The new district would be R+6.87. We can call it R+7.

[ Parent ]
Pretty Good
I wouldn't quite call CD1 "Davenport-based", most of the population is in the Northeast Iowa media district with Waterloo and Dubuque.  Regardless, it contains all but 1 county that Bruce Braley represents now, and Decorah/Mason City shouldn't be that big an addition; most of those cities were in the 1990s 2nd district.

But this looks basically how I expect the districts will go, at least on map #1.  The Republicans might prefer a map with something more like the 1990s 4th district Des Moines to Council Bluffs, but I don't think they'll get it.

I glad you think this.

I tell Davenport based as a way for emphasize what the map includes one of four largest cities in every district, and these cities are currently in IA-01, IA-02, IA-03 and IA-05.

I think we will have few surprises in the redistricting for Iowa.

[ Parent ]
the map makes a lot of sense
Braley keeps the major metro areas he's been representing. He gets some Republican territory but also Mason City, a pretty Democratic area.

The Iowa City/Cedar Rapids corridor and the Des Moines metro area aren't broken into different districts, so that's good.

I suspect it would end up being a 2-2 map, but Democrats would be favored if Latham retired or ran for higher office.

If anyone wants to compare, here's an old Bleeding Heartland diary that looked at three other four-district maps for Iowa.

thank you

Still, looking to the redistricting in other states, and if T Latham and L Boswell must run in a EVEN or D+ district in 2012 (so likely), I think T Latham can be one of first targets for the democrats every election in the next decade.
[ Parent ]
except that he's been representing a D+0 district
and got 60 percent of the vote even in 2008, when Obama carried his district easily. He's on the Appropriations Committee and brings some money to the district. He keeps his head down and almost never calls attention to himself, unlike Steve King.
[ Parent ]
He is so strong, no doubt

I tell this because looking to the redistricting in other states, the republicans can be able for improve in many of their EVEN or D+ current districts.

After the redistricting, and if T Latham win the district, the new IA-03 can be something like PA-06, PA-15 or WA-08 after 2008 elections.

WA-08, NH-02, NH-01, NJ-02 and maybe IA-03 can be the most democratic districts with republican incumbent for the next elections and while we win not someone.

[ Parent ]
another great set of maps
Set G

would looks like one of those roll of the dice that the GOP would like.  

Any way to get rid of Steve King and I'll be happy.


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
it's hard for me to imagine
King losing a Republican primary under any circumstances.
[ Parent ]
Could
 he lose in a GE in an R+6? Would it have to be a good year or could we field a strong candidate and knock him out in a neutral year?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I'm not optimistic
Our candidate in IA-05 in 2008 worked extremely hard and still didn't even get 40 percent of the vote against King (underperformed Obama by around 6 points). Democratic GOTV was quite poor in western Iowa that year, because it wasn't a priority for the Obama campaign, but still--a very solid performance for King. It's not like people have never heard of his outrageous comments.
[ Parent ]
But
this is a slightly less Republican district. With a good candidate and a good year in an R+6? Come on, give me some hope.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I like this design.
Definitely seems like something the commission would draw.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
I also think the last result can be so close to this

[ Parent ]
Great map, abgin!
I didn't know you had it in you to retreat from your limits-finding.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.
This time the procedure is different

Like the the application has not still political data for every precinct I use the data in the county level, cause of that I can not divide a county between two districts if I wish to give the rating of the new districts.

But, like this D+5 (58% Obama) is the limit what I think must have a district for get safe, the map what I would draw finding the limits would be very close to this in the CD-01 and the CD-02. My map finding the limits would change a little the CD-03 and the CD-04 making them less compact. But like I tell previously this map is not far of a map finding the limits. As resume I think a map finding the limits would give:

IA-01: D+5
IA-02: D+5
IA-03: D+2/3?
IA-04: R+8/9?

[ Parent ]
Iowa: 2-1-1 | 28 comments

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