I don't like splitting the Eastern Shore

plus I don't think Harris lives in your MD-06, and Sarbanes for sure doesn't live in your MD-03, as he lives in Towson which is a Northern suburb of Baltimore. Plus, having Worcester county be in the same district as PG is almost criminal...

That said, I like the fact that you give Matheson his own seat, though I'm not sure the UT GOP will be so kind.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

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by: nycyoungin @ Sat Dec 04, 2010 at 02:02:58 AM UTC

Good point on the Eastern Shore

If Kratovil wants to make a comeback, they just need to cut off the conservative suburbs where Harris is from and extend his district to an area of Maryland more amenable.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Sat Dec 04, 2010 at 02:09:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

they probably will be

What they will likely do is put Matheson into the most Democratic district they can give him so that his district can be a Democratic vote sink. That way, SLC can trend as Democratic as the Democrats want, but the GOP will still be safe.

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by: thematt523 @ Sat Dec 04, 2010 at 02:10:51 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

That was my thinking

Cracking Salt Lake City, considering what a large portion of Utahns actually live there, seems like a bad strategy for a party that wants to keep its rivals as beaten-down and hopeless as possible. The potential for competitive races tends to galvanize the minority.

Rep. Matheson is the man they cannot kill. So they'll just stick him on an island and help themselves to another rock-solid GOP seat.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

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by: SaoMagnifico @ Sat Dec 04, 2010 at 02:41:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rep.-elect Harris lives in Cockeysville...

Just north of Rep. Ruppersberger's MD-02 in this drawing. I thought about drawing him out just for the sake of being a jerk, but I thought I'd throw him a bone. As for Rep. Sarbanes, as I said, he needs to move. MD-03 is just too damn ugly to live as long as it's drawn just to keep Sarbanes from having to move a few miles south.

And Rep. Kratovil lost convincingly enough despite Gov. O'Malley's huge win that I can easily see Rep.-elect Harris hanging onto that seat pending a major redraw.

As for splitting the Eastern Shore, I tried a few different options and it turned out it was the best way to get to a solid 7-1 map. Southern Maryland and the southern counties of the Eastern Shore aren't terribly dissimilar anyway (after all, they're both on the Virginia border...), even though sticking Worcester County and pieces of Prince George's County together is probably kind of mean.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

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by: SaoMagnifico @ Sat Dec 04, 2010 at 02:39:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I Agree With Your Last Paragraph

I've got no problem with splitting the Eastern Shore.

Personally, if people want to draw lines around personalities, I'd prioritize drawing Harris out of the House over drawing Kratovil back into it.

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by: armand @ Sat Dec 04, 2010 at 04:41:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Utah

Someone here proposed this before. I think it's pretty awesome.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

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by: duffman @ Sat Dec 04, 2010 at 03:05:42 AM UTC

Wow, that looks impressive

But the numbers, just from looking at it, don't add up right. Population disparity would have to be huge. And of course the GOP would never, ever draw this map.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

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by: SaoMagnifico @ Sat Dec 04, 2010 at 03:09:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

population adds up

all districts are within +/- 1000 people.
And why wouldn't the GOP draw it? I'm sure the blue and purple districts are just as conservative as the red district.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

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by: duffman @ Sat Dec 04, 2010 at 03:22:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

lol

Nevada part 2.

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by: skaje @ Sat Dec 04, 2010 at 06:25:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm not sure what sort of district Matheson will get

Republican tried to push Matheson out before, but it failed, so they might leave him alone and concede that one district in the state will be winnable for a Democrat. On the other hand, they might try again.  

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

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by: DrPhillips @ Sat Dec 04, 2010 at 03:23:18 AM UTC

A problem is that redistricting is for 10 years, so they might want insurance in case of a Matheson retirement

Utah is Republican enough that there's no need to give Matheson the most Democratic seat possible - the rest of the state will still be solidly GOP in any case. Perhaps they could try to draw him a seat that is just Democratic enough that a liberal could potentially beat him at the convention (considering what happened this year) but be Republican enough that said liberal would have little chance at winning the general election.

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by: Nichlemn @ Sat Dec 04, 2010 at 03:46:20 AM UTC

Very interesting maps

Matheson got 55% against a primary foe this year.  Would he really want a district with all the state's liberals  in it?  There was a wide array of groups that have been fighting mad over his votes the last two years.  I might add that a Salt Lake county seat would re-elect him but maybe not the guy who ran against him in the primary this year.

What will Utah GOP do?  who knows?

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by: rdelbov @ Sat Dec 04, 2010 at 03:53:35 AM UTC

that 55% was in the convention, not the primary

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

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by: sapelcovits @ Mon Dec 06, 2010 at 09:30:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

And here's how I think the Republicans will try to screw Matheson over this time

(Put the SLC-area map into a new window to see it bigger.)

SLC can be split up equally into four quadrants, each with about 250,000 people in them.

UT-01 (blue) - Loses parts of the northern end of the state but picks up parts of the southwestern end of the state (and some of UT-03's SLC portion, which went for McCain), which if anything makes the district redder.
UT-02 (green) - Essentially a new district for Matheson; gives him most of Salt Lake City proper but adds some very Republican parts of north Utah.
UT-03 (purple) - Loses most of Utah County but gains pretty much all the rural parts of the state; Chaffetz actually gets drawn into this district (he lives in Alpine, currently in UT-02), if he were to stay for another term. The southwestern part of SLC also looks to be the most Republican.
UT-04 (red) - the southeastern quadrant of SLC gets broken off from UT-02 and is attached to the Happy Valley, which is not going to elect a Democrat. Ever.

Matheson could try for another term in UT-02 and see if he could win over enough voters in the northern part of the state (plus he'd be handicapped by having less of SLC), but it would be tough.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Sat Dec 04, 2010 at 04:40:44 AM UTC

That's the idea

There is no reason for Republicans to concede a district in the reddest state in the nation. They'll split SLC four ways if they have to, but what would be the incentive for them to draw a district that's less than R+10 or so? If Matheson runs and wins in one of the districts, more power to him, but his presence alone won't make the map drawers carve a Dem-leaning seat out of Utah.

The Maryland map looks good: I don't know how important it is to keep the Eastern Shore intact, but that's a lot better looking than the current map, especially in the Baltimore area. Unlike Utah, where 4-0 is feasible, I think Democrats need to concede one seat here to protect everyone else, and that's a sustainable 7-1.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

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by: MassGOP @ Sat Dec 04, 2010 at 05:03:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The issue is actually pretty simple...

Cities are growing and getting bluer. Salt Lake City is no exception. It's already over a third of each of these districts' populations on this map. If demographic trends hold, there's a very real risk for the GOP that by 2018, 2020, it won't matter how Republican the Happy Valley or northern Utah is; Blue Dogs based out of Salt Lake City will still be able to rack up winning margins.

Cracking a city is fool's gold with the way the trendlines are pointing nationally. It will be interested to see how many Republican redistricting plans see the writing on the wall.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

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by: SaoMagnifico @ Sat Dec 04, 2010 at 07:28:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Utah is R+20. If a Utah map becomes a dummymander, then Republicans are screwed away

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by: Nichlemn @ Sun Dec 05, 2010 at 05:10:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

*anyway

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by: Nichlemn @ Sun Dec 05, 2010 at 11:47:00 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Its almost risk

free idea to split Salt Lake county -four ways.

Not big on maps until exact census numbers come out-but I am thankful for those produce these maps here-but it seems very possible to keep carving up Salt Lake county to make things harder for Matheston

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by: rdelbov @ Sat Dec 04, 2010 at 13:40:53 PM UTC

Updated map (Maryland)

Same basic design with a few tweaks, particularly in Montgomery County and Frederick County, and especially around Baltimore.

MD-01 (blue)
55% Obama, 43% McCain
67% white, 22% black
This district will be held by Republican Rep.-elect Andy Harris in the 112th Congress, but he's been drawn out of this district. It's tailor-made for Rep. Frank Kratovil, a Blue Dog Democrat, to make a comeback after his defeat last month.

MD-02 (green)
62% Obama, 37% McCain
62% white, 29% black
This district is held by Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger, a Democrat, who should be fine here, of course. It also includes all of Cockeysville, where both Ruppersberger and Harris live. Harris could run here, but he'd get blown away in the general.

MD-03 (purple)
59% Obama, 39% McCain
66% white, 20% black
I redrew this district to include Democratic Rep. John Sarbanes, who lives in Towson in Baltimore County. It's probably the district I'm least happy with on the map, as Sarbanes is a liberal stuck in a district that includes a lot of reddish suburbs and exurbs. Even still, he should be heavily tipped to win reelection, especially since the Republican bench in Maryland is pathetic.

MD-04 (red)
89% Obama, 11% McCain
18% white, 57% black
The first of two VRA districts on the map, this district could be retained by Harry Belafonte for the Democrats if Rep. Donna Edwards wasn't on the ballot.

MD-05 (yellow)
63% Obama, 36% McCain
55% white, 34% black
Democratic Rep. Steny Hoyer, due to be House minority whip in the 112th Congress, should have smooth sailing here, even though the district crosses the Chesapeake Bay to incorporate the swingy southern counties of the Eastern Shore.

MD-06 (teal)
34% Obama, 64% McCain
91% white, 4% black
The most conservative district one can conceivably draw in Maryland is (not coincidentally) also the whitest. Sadly for the Republicans, both Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, the Republican occupying the present incarnation of this district, and Rep.-elect Harris live outside its boundaries. I'm guessing Bartlett will retire in 2012 and Harris will run in a district that looks a lot like this, although a new face is possible.

MD-07 (grey)
82% Obama, 16% McCain
31% white, 55% black
This district straddles Baltimore and Montgomery County, which would be a huge problem in terms of advertising (as Montgomery and Prince George's counties are in the D.C. media market, while pretty much all the rest of Maryland is in the Baltimore media market) if this district, held by Democratic Rep. Elijah Cummings, was remotely competitive.

MD-08 (slate blue)
63% Obama, 35% McCain
71% white, 9% black, 10% Asian, 9% Latino
The racial makeup of this district amuses me, so I though I'd include it. Rep. Chris Van Hollen, the Democrat who ran the DCCC for the previous two cycles (performing a lot better in one than he did in the other, unfortunately), has a bit tougher a seat, but that's a relative term. Even with big pieces of reddish Frederick and Washington counties (including the swingish, blueing cities of Frederick and Hagerstown) included in what is currently a Montgomery County district, this district is still solidly Democratic.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

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by: SaoMagnifico @ Mon Dec 06, 2010 at 23:06:40 PM UTC

Quick corrections...

MD-01 is actually 56% Obama, 43% McCain; and MD-07 is actually 81% Obama, 18% McCain, and 32% white, 54% black.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

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by: SaoMagnifico @ Mon Dec 06, 2010 at 23:16:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I like this, though I would make

a few modifications:

1. use the 4th to soak up some Republicans in either Carroll County or Anne Arundel County (you probably need touch-point contiguity to do this;

2.  Shift the 3rd NW and the 2nd SE;

3. Give the 8th should trade some of its reddest Frederick County  precincts with the 7th for blue ones in Montgomery County.

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by: andgarden @ Tue Dec 07, 2010 at 00:46:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Your saved files

The app gets hungry sometimes, so watch out...

I recommend using 2.0, so you can save and load your files normally, in whatever directory you like.

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by: dgb @ Wed Dec 15, 2010 at 00:34:29 AM UTC

Why not 8 Dem seats in Maryland?

Is there any good reason why the Dems can't go for all eight seats in Maryland? In the last round they packed the Morrella and Ehrlich districts to make sure they could flip them, which has left Democrats very inefficiently distributed. Here's a map I quickly came up with:

This is how the districts break down:

District 1 (Blue):

Obama: 54%
McCain: 44%

District 2 (Green):

Obama: 55%
McCain: 43%

District 3 (Magenta):

Obama: 54%
McCain: 45%

District 4 (Red):

Obama: 82%
McCain: 17%

District 5 (Gold):

Obama: 65%
McCain: 34%

District 6 (Teal):

Obama: 54%
McCain: 44%

District 7 (Gray):

Obama: 73%
McCain: 26%

District 8 (SlateBlue):

Obama: 62%
McCain: 37%

Districts 4 & 7 are still majority-minority districts (55% and 52% respectively).

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by: roguemapper @ Tue Dec 28, 2010 at 07:26:48 AM UTC

I just don't really see it as likely...

For Annapolis to draw this map. A lot of those narrow Obama districts would be potentially swingy.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

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by: SaoMagnifico @ Tue Dec 28, 2010 at 07:37:31 AM UTC

[ Parent ]