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SSP Daily Digest: 12/2

by: Crisitunity

Thu Dec 02, 2010 at 6:23 PM EST


AK-Sen: You might recall that yesterday the state of Alaska asked to intervene in Joe Miller's state-court case disputing the Senatorial election, demanding an expedited result. Now the judge is allowing Lisa Murkowski herself to intervene in the case as well; she says the state wouldn't adequately represent her interests, and she's still trying to get an additional 2,000 ballots out there (that weren't counted for her) counted for her as icing on the cake.

FL-Sen: He isn't even in the House yet, but there's growing buzz for Daniel Webster for the 2012 Senate race, as a possible opponent to Bill Nelson. Of course, as far as I can tell from today's article, that buzz seems to be coming from Webster's own coterie, but it's not the first time I've heard his name associated with the race. (Reading between the lines, it looks like Rep. Vern Buchanan -- whose myriad lawsuits regarding campaign finance chicanery and his car dealership seem to have faded into the background -- is another name to keep an eye on here.)

MO-Sen: Sarah Steelman already has one key backer, in the event the quest for the GOP nomination in Missouri turns into a heated primary. The Club for Growth is already lining up behind Steelman, not formally endorsing but sending around a press release touting her and also taking some swipes at Jim Talent for his earmark-lovin' ways.

NM-Sen: More Some Dude news in New Mexico, where another random guy who lost a NM-02 primary is getting in the GOP Senate field: Greg Sowards (who lost the 2008 primary to succeed Steve Pearce). Further up the food chain, ex-Rep. Heather Wilson seems to be on GOPers' wish list, but she says she isn't focused on that. (I can't see her running unless Jeff Bingaman decides to retire, and since he has fundraisers planned in coming months, he doesn't seem to be acting like a retiree.)

NV-Sen: The big news yesterday was that John Ensign is no longer considered a target for investigation by the DOJ, in connection to that whole ooops-sorry-I-boned-your-wife-here-have-a-lobbying-job thing. He still faces internal Senate Ethics grilling, which could lead to discipline or even expulsion. How are we supposed to feel about this? A bad day for objective justice, perhaps... but probably a net plus for the Democrats, seeing as how this makes it likelier that Ensign runs again and survives a GOP primary (which a recent PPP poll, before this news, already showed him in position to do so) and enters the general election in weakened form. The local GOP seems to be reading this the same way, still feeling very leery about an Ensign run and very much preferring to see Rep. Dean Heller as their 2012 candidate.

VA-Sen: With Prince William Supervisor Corey Stewart already firing some potshots across George Allen's bow in advance of 2012's GOP Senate primary, now it seems like Allen's camp is returning fire with some heavier-gauge guns. Stewart has to run for re-election to his current job in 2011, and Allen's camp is supposedly vowing to encourage backers to pour in financial support to Stewart's opposition in that race (whoever that might be), in order to decapitate a Stewart run before it can materialize.

MN-Gov: This is taking damned-if-you-do-damned-if-you-don't to a new level: Tom Emmer's team's wave of frivolous (and when I say frivolous, I'm not being hyperbolic, as you can see here) ballot challenges in the Minnesota recount has mounted so high that officials have had to add more counting tables... and now Emmer is threatening to sue over the fact that they've added more counting tables, saying that that somehow indicates bias against Emmer. The SoS says that adding more tables can't possibly violate any rules. At any rate, moving on to Day 4 of counting, the official tally now finds that the numbers have still barely budged: Mark Dayton has gained 17 votes since Election Day while Emmer has gained 14, with 84% of the vote recounted, meaning there's really no path to victory here for Emmer.

VT-Gov: We mentioned yesterday that Peter Shumlin brought his GOP opponent, Brian Dubie, into his inner circle, and now he's doing the Team of Rivals thing with his closest competitor from the Dem primary. Ex-Lt. Gov. Doug Racine, who Shumlin beat by 100-or-so votes, is being brought on board as Shumlin's head of the Agency of Human Services, where his key task will be starting up the state's planned single-payer health care system.

WV-Gov: Democratic SoS Natalie Tennant is making even more candidate-ish noises, saying she's "strongly considering" a gubernatorial run, especially if it occurs in 2011, which would mean not having to give up her current job. Not only are acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin and state House speaker Richard Thompson expected to run for the Dems, but state Sen. Jeff Kessler and state Treasurer John Perdue are also interested.

MA-01, MA-02: The news from the Bay State is that veteran Democratic Reps. John Olver and Richard Neal are both publicly saying that they're running for re-election. In any other year, that would be purely yawn-inducing, but this year, that's fascinating, as it potentially sets them up on a collision course. My expectation was the Massachusetts redistricting conundrum would probably be solved by a retirement from the 74-year-old Olver, and parceling out pieces of the 1st into Neal's 2nd and Jim McGovern's 3rd. With Olver and Neal both sticking around, the subtraction is likelier come from the Boston area, where it seems likely that at least one Rep. will vacate in order to take on Scott Brown in 2012 (which would make sense since not only is Mike Capuano sounding the likeliest, but his Cambridge-based 8th is the state's most depopulated district)... but if none of them take the plunge, the lost seat may come the state's west. Complicating matters even further is that Pittsfield-based ex-state Sen. Andrea Nuciforo has already announced that he's running in the MA-01 primary in 2012, Olver or not. (Would she he run in a primary against both Amherst-based Olver and Springfield-based Neal if they all get smooshed together?)

NY-01: As we mentioned yesterday, Tim Bishop's team is urging Randy Altschuler to "give in to the math." Yesterday's gain from the first day of counting challenged ballots was a net gain of 27 more for Bishop.  

Redistricting: Here's one more comprehensive redistricting resource to add to your pile, if you haven't already seen it. The Brennan Center's guide includes a rundown on who controls what and what procedures are used state-to-state.

New York: This is a staggeringly large number, that somehow seems disproportionate to the rather blasé NYT headline: "New York City Board of Elections Finds 200,000 Votes a Month After Election." It's a mishmash of affidavit, absentee, and military ballots that apparently were just now added to the totals. 80,000 of those ballots were from Queens alone, which is 31% more than that borough reported on Election Day. While there were some close races in Queens, the city says that this wasn't enough to reverse the results in any election (and the one race that could have been worrisome, SD-11, actually saw a gain for Tony Avella, who beat GOP incumbent Frank Padavan, from 53-47 to 54.3-45.7).

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 12/2
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I would like to see Capuano
take on Scott Brown. I think he would campaign hard and be favored to win. PPP says Brown's 16 points ahead of Capuano, but almost half the sample doesn't know Capuano.  

I've heard good things...
A lot of people thought he should have been the nominee instead of Coakley the last time around.  

[ Parent ]
very true
I voted for Capuano for the record.  

It really seemed to me that he wanted it more and that he would have worked for it better while Coakley went along with the I'm the AG I get the seat kinda thing.  

I think Capuano will raise the money, get better known, and beat Brown with few problems when it comes to MA in a presidential election year.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions


[ Parent ]
Speaking of MA:
Andrea Nuciforo is a he. Yes, Mr. Nuciforo is a guy. He's been talking about an Olver challenge for years.

[ Parent ]
"Andrea" is the Italian version of Andrew
also, "Michele" is Michael, not Michelle. There's one other feminine-sounding Italian male name, I think, but I'm blanking out right now.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
not enough of them voted for him.
And the best marker for electability is winning elections.

[ Parent ]
In House races
it's usually the primary winner that ends up being the best candidate. But in Senate races, not so much. I especially don't think you can argue that Capuano would have been the gaffe machine that Coakley was or sleepwalk through the campaign like she did.

Capuano was also handicapped by the short campaign season (about 3 weeks from the declaration of the special election) and the general feeling of "Martha Coakley is inevitable so get in line" that overshadowed the primary. The whole thing was "Massachusetts has never had a female Senator, now it's time". It didn't matter that Coakley's campaign started to show cracks near the end of the primary.


[ Parent ]
not quite
Patrick announced on 8/31 that there's be a primary on 12/8 -- three full months to campaign.  (11/3 filing deadline.)  

[ Parent ]
Yeah, that's what I meant
still not a lot of time.

[ Parent ]
MA-8
Capuano's seat is certainly not the most depopulated.  Boston had been growing at a steady clip.  I'm pretty sure that award goes to Oliver's 1st district.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

Per the DRA, it's actually MA-09
Makes sense, as Southie, West Roxbury, and Brockton have all steadily lost population over the past generation. MA-08 actually has the highest population of any disitrct, so it could easily give some Boston precincts to the 9th if both survive.

Bill Keating is so lucky that the Cape can't feasibly fit in anyone else's district. He'd be the obvious one to go if all 10 incumbents decide to run for re-election.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
DRA has some precincts from the 9th in the 8th
If you reassign them you'll see that the 1st is the smallest. The ninth and eighth district have some weird interactions in Boston which cause Dave's app to screw up.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
Thanks
Yeah, the 9th is really weird with its tentacle up to Beacon Hill. I think that was drawn so Joe Moakley (Lynch's predecessor), who was dean of the delegation last time the map was drawn, could lay claim to representing the State House?

Western Mass, particularly Franklin County, has also been losing population for years as mills in places like Orange and Erving have packed up and moved to greener pastures.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
8th and 9th
I think the 8th was designed to be as close to a minority-majority seat as is feasible in the Boston area without reaching too far out of Boston (it doesn't go to Lynn, for instance.) Since Back Bay, Beacon Hill and the North End are very white, it made more sense for the 8th to go around them.

It also might have been an attempt to preserve Democrats and/or Boston's clout by giving a Democratic candidate from the city (as opposed to a suburbanite of either party) a better chance at succeeding Moakley. It almost goes without saying that most of this area is more liberal/Democratic than the city as a whole.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03


[ Parent ]
In that case
wouldn't they put the more Democratic parts of Boston in the 9th, then?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
That Would Make More Sense...
...but not if there was a mandate coming from someone somewhere (and I can't seem to find a definitive answer on this) that the 8th was to contain as many non-whites as possible.

If not for such a mandate, the 8th is an enormously wasteful Democratic vote sink. It doesn't even really have the whole "communities of interest" thing going for it; the Hispanics of Chelsea, Asian-Americans of Cambridge, and African-Americans of Roxbury have little in common besides "not being white."  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03


[ Parent ]
That looks right
From the 2009 ACS, here are the estimated populations of each of the districts:

MA-01: 645K
MA-02: 667K
MA-03: 666K
MA-04: 651K
MA-05: 653K
MA-06: 660K
MA-07: 646K
MA-08: 683K
MA-09: 660K
MA-10: 657K

While writing rather than navigating the cumbersome Census Bureau site, I just glanced at one of my databases, which used 2006 numbers, and where MA-08 had by far the least of any district (less than 600K). I wonder if that was a one-off sample problem, or if the 8th has really rebounded that much in three years.


[ Parent ]
Also
I don't think it's correct to say it's Cambridge-based. Cambridge has about 100K people. Cambridge, Somerville, and Chelsea together are around 200k. The rest of the district is Boston.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Trying to Draw It Out.
The funny thing is that I've tried to draw the sort of Olver/Neal seat that would result..and the hardest thing to figure out is what the hell to do with the Blackstone Valley.(For those not familiar, it's an increasingly GOP-friendly cluster of towns to the south/southeast of Worcester.)

Right now it's mostly Richard Neal's but a pure Western Mass seat wouldn't come anywhere near there. McGovern has most of the rest but if he had to cover a bunch of western territory he'd get pushed out of there some.

McGovern's district moves west towards VT/NY while Tsongas has to pick up some of the easternmost parts of Olver's district. Tierney's district has to expand a bit west to cover. Even with Keating and Lynch adding more stuff in SE Mass to their respective territories, Frank has to cover even more of Bristol County, which is tough because he's in Newton.  I ended up drawing something that has Ed Markey of all people ending up with most of the Blackstone Valley..but he's all the way in Malden (basically, he'd get most of what people call "Metrowest") so that looks silly too.  


36, M, Democrat, MD-03


[ Parent ]
Chicago Mayor: The RNC goes after Rahm
http://www.nbcchicago.com/blog...

It turns out the Chicago mayor's race is all about Obama. That's what the Republican National Committee is telling donors in a new fundraising campaign to defeat Rahm Emanuel. Because if Obama's ex-chief of staff loses, then Obama loses, right? The RNC is using this pitch to solicit donations of up to $5,000.

...

This Republican fundraising campaign is a boon for Emanuel. It allows him to tie himself to Obama without actually getting Obama's endorsement. And it allows him to rally Chicagoans against an external enemy -- the Republican Party -- that would otherwise have no skin in this election, since the Chicago mayor's race has been non-partisan since 1999. "If I lose, the Republicans win" is a pretty powerful message in a city that's 80 percent Democratic.



21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



That's weak from the RNC.
It's Chicago, for pete's sake.  Also, I don't care who wins the race so long as they are competent and fight corruption.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Why are they even spending anything on this?
It's hardly beneficial when they have no candidate in the race (non-partisan race or not, party affiliations are still known.)

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
OT, but I want to say this: I've always advocated
non-partisan races for town and small city races.  It's what I grew up with in my quaint South Jersey town.  There, party affiliation does not blind one against any candidate's merits.  The same goes for Sheriff's races.  It seems odd to me that you would want to vote for the head of county law enforcement based on party.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I very much doubt...
that the RNC is actually spending a dime against Rahm Emanuel. I would be furious if they were flushing money away like that.

I assume it's just a fundraising ploy to help begin to retire their crippling debt. Just because they raise money under the auspices of defeating Rahm or whatever, doesn't mean they need to spend it on that. Rahm's just one of those polarizing figures that bring in the big bucks.

20, GOP, NH-02


[ Parent ]
I don't know about that
The RNC has been making the smartest decisions lately.  

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
OMG
I think Steele is trying to lose re-election. I don't give a flying fuck about embarrassing Obama, especially the RNC embarrassing him. What I do actually give a shit about is a functioning RNC that spends money wisely and not on a Chicago mayors race with NO Republican candidates. Here's a novel idea: Instead of trying to embarrass Obama, why don't we use that money to defeat him. If there could be a more incompetent RNC/DNC chair, I'd like to meet him.  

[ Parent ]
If more republicans in charge thought like you did.
I would be much more open to voting R occasionally. It does seem though that Steele-McConnel-Bohener and Co are on a mission to ruin Obama rather then focus on policy which helps make a purity test of sorts in making sure all R candidates do not entertain any thought of compromise with him.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

[ Parent ]
According to DarthCon
This is just a fundraising ploy, they're not actually campaigning against Rahm.  or something like that

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
That's just speculation on my part
Mostly because I cannot even fathom the idea of an RNC that is so deep in debt doing something so patently foolish

20, GOP, NH-02

[ Parent ]
You do realize
That we are talking about Michael Steele's RNC?  

[ Parent ]
But he doesn't make decisions unilaterally.
When the topic of spending in the Chicago mayoral race came up, there must have been SOMEBODY with some sort of authority who could stand up and say, "Uh... this is unbelievably stupid."

But maybe I'm giving too much credit.

20, GOP, NH-02


[ Parent ]
It may be in the RNCs best intrest for a Democrat other than Rahm to win
If Illinois has another close statewide race (which is pretty likely come 2016 if not 2014) a Mayor Rahm could be very bad for them.  He may do a much better job at GOTV than a Mayor Davis or Mayor Moseley-Braun given his history at this sort of thing.  Of course I have no idea how the RNC could influence the election in favor of a Democrat.  Maybe they could have some shadow groups run ads against Rahm and for someone they think is weaker, but they'd have to be very careful to keep it a secret.  My guess is they're just using this as a fund-raising pitch and they don't drop a cent into the race in any form.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
what statewide race would be close in 2014?
If republicans can't win the governorship in a year like this, when can they?  granted brady was a bad candidate, but still, he was leading for most of the year, besides, so was quinn.  I can see kirk's race being close, but that's one where closeness hurts republicans.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
It's not inconcivable the Governorship could be close
If the state is still in bad condition and the Republicans nominate someone good they'd have a good shot at winning.  The Democrats would probably nominate someone popular like Lisa Madigan but if voters decide that twelve years of Democratic rule is too much they can always take it out on her.  

2014 is obviously so far away that any number of things can happen.  But if the Republicans want a leg up in a close statewide race then having someone as Mayor of Chicago without a machine would be very helpful.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Wow.
Rahm just got my vote.

[ Parent ]
Manchin running this year
may have further waylaid a re-alignment in WV.  Just a hypothesis.  After the elections this year, WV Dems lost only 6 seats in the 100 member House and picked up 1 seat in the Senate.

http://www.ballotpedia.org/wik...
http://www.ballotpedia.org/wik...

Keep in mind, of course, that Dems in WV are conservative, some are even more conservative than their GOP counterparts.

Still, it's good that they didn't get sweeped like in NC, AL, or what could have happened in AR.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Nice catch
your probably right Manchin was and probably still is uber popular. The test will be if he can hold out against negative coattails.

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

[ Parent ]
I think he will
Unless SMC runs. If she runs, I think this is a very competitive race. without her, probably likely-lean D.  

[ Parent ]
Isn't she probably running for Gov?


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
IDK
I think she thinks that would be easier, but there is already a pretty good Republican candidate declared, Sen. Clark Barnes, and she might not want a primary with him, where as she could probably clear the Sen primary field. Of course, Barnes could always switch to the Sen race. He briefly ran for WV-01, but dropped out when McKinney entered, and he was going to run for Senate, but did not want a primary with Raese. He's probably tired of getting forced out of races.  

[ Parent ]
She's dead meat in a primary
I mean, she's pro-choice. That's a killer.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
She's still loved
By WV Republicans. Plus, thats the kind of postiton that conveniently changes.  

[ Parent ]
Was that a Mitt Romney reference?
He famously flipped on abortion and then denied he ever flipped at all.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
I've always wondered...
... why pro-choice Republicans running for president didn't simply endorse a repeal of Roe v. Wade? Instead of unconvincingly flip-flopping completely, why don't they simply say "I am personally pro-choice, but I believe it should be decided by the states. The Supreme Court erred in Roe v. Wade."

Ideally, of course, they'd have also held this position in their prior office as well (i.e. governor, etc.).

But had Mitt Romney said something like this it may have been at least somewhat more credible than claiming to have flip-flopped completely.  


[ Parent ]
That's a terrible idea, it just hurts you with everyone. You can't split the baby...
...on abortion.

Sorry, couldn't resist.

Pro-lifers won't accept personally pro-choice but against Roe vs. Wade.  Not good enough.

Pro-choicers won't accept opposition to Roe v. Wade.

There is triangulating that can work, and triangulating that just makes you unpopular with everyone.  On abortion, virtually no triangulating can work.  Bill Clinton's "safe, legal, and rare" is as close as you can get, since it really does reach those people who see moral ambiguity on the issue.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
"no way to split the difference?"
then what about this?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.


[ Parent ]
I really have to learn how to embed links
tiny amaerican flags for others!

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
To embed, all you have to do is click the "embed" link in Youtube
And just paste the code you find there, like so:



Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Well, I'm just talking about in a Republican primary
In particular, I think with Romney, his biggest problem was how insincere his position seemed. I think it hurt him more than taking a position like I suggested would.  

[ Parent ]
No
General politician reference. Abortion flip-flops are very common.  

[ Parent ]
I think SMC is a little overrated though.
I think she is a perfect fit for her district but I do see a good amount of republicans being unhappy with her as a statewide candidate. As well as many conservadems that would probably be necessary to win. But way to early and all speculation at this point.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

[ Parent ]
She has
A 77% favorability rating statewide, just 3% less than Manchin's 80%.  

[ Parent ]
mm didn't know they tested that way better then I would have thought n/t


CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

[ Parent ]
It was a local firm
Important to note thats its favorability, not job approval.  

[ Parent ]
I like Capuano
my only fear is that he wasn't able to beat Martha Coakley :/.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

She actually campaigned
During the primary.  

[ Parent ]
That is true
still even when she did campaign she struck me as well a terrible campaigner heh.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

[ Parent ]
Yeah, she started off
with a huge lead in name recognition and money, but still almost lost.  

[ Parent ]
And outspent him 3:1
then she took a month vacation. lol.  

[ Parent ]
Coakley
better not run for anything else but Attorney General in 2014 because she'll lose or piss away another race. Plus attorney generals in Massachusetts seem to be cursed with the "can't elevate themselves to higher office" thing that plagues mayors of NYC.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Yep, AG is a cursed office
Before Coakley, 4 of the 5 previous AG's left their office to try to run for governor, and all of them failed. Scott Harshbarger was the only one to make it out of the primary. Most recently, Tom Reilly blew a big early lead in the 2006 gubernatorial primary by mishandling an investigation of a car crash that killed two teenage girls, and Deval Patrick was the beneficiary.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
it was hard for him to campaign
He was tied down in Washington for Congressional votes a lot of the time, and the campaign was short. He didn't have an opportunity to introduce himself to Democrats statewide.

[ Parent ]
Christine
O'Donnell is in Virginia to cast her spell on the people there...

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


didn't they decide to have a republican primary this year?
Christine For Virginia!  She'll cast a spell on you ;)

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Iowa SD 48
As expected, Democrats nominated Ruth Smith for the January 4 special election in Iowa Senate district 48. If the Republicans hold this seat (as they are favored to do), the Iowa Senate will have a 26-24 Democratic majority.

CA-St. Legislature: I still can't believe
that the biggest state in the union has only 40 State Senate Seats and 80 Assembly seats.  WV has 100 State House seats and 34 State Senate seats and has only 3 US Congressional seats.  C'mon, CA, enfranchise more of your state for pete's sake.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Not
going to happen. Not only would the GOP blow a gasket, but the idea of adding even more politicians to Sacramento is enough to make most voters puke.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
But the state's so freaking BIG.
There ought to be as many State Senate seats as US Congress seats at least.  Here in NJ we have 13 Congress seats and 40 State Senate seats.

Screw what the GOP thinks.  Did the GOP worry about the Dems blowing a gasket when they did mid-decade redistricting immediately after winning the majority?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I am surprised
that over the state's fast-growing decades in the mid-20th century no one suggested increasing the state legislature. The Senate has been frozen at 40 and the Assembly at 80 since 1868. I personally think the Senate and Assembly should be combined into a unicameral 120-member chamber.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
But even that seems pretty damn small
I mean really, a lot of people don't understand just how tiny the US House is relative to state population (California's assembly has 1 member for every 440k people, the US has it for every 690k people).

For perspective, the British Parliament has 650 members for a country that has roughly 62 million people (or something like 1 member for every 96K people). If I could change the constitution, I'd permanently set the number at 1 for every 200k people, that way states don't lose representation in congress unless they actually lose population.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
America did something close to that until the early 20th century......
There is nothing in the U.S. Constitution specifying how many U.S. House members there must be.  So Congress controls it completely.  And until 1929 there was no cap on total numbers, they just kept expanding the body as the country's population grew.  They stopped and imposed a cap of 435 because at some point you do have to stop, the body can get so big that it's unmanageable.  In 1929, when the cap was set, the average population of a U.S. House district was about 280K.  It's two-and-one-half times that now, but can we really manage more than 435 members?  I'm skeptical.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I certainly understand the logistical problems of it but...
As I mentioned, Britain's House of Commons is right now at 650 members, so a small increase is always possible.

To be honest, if I had my way, I'd switch away from district-based voting and more to proportional representation, create new regional legislative borders, disband the senate (or turn them into something like what the House of Lords are like in Britain or keep them solely as a check on Executive power but no real power over House bills), and probably weaken the presidency.

Basically, I'd advocate for a parliamentary system with the Senate and President serving largely as figureheads.

Since that's never going to happen (and since this is probably really pushing what's acceptable for SSP) I'll leave it at that!

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Sabato has a proposal similar to what you suggest
http://www.amoreperfectconstit...

1. Expand the Senate to 136 members to be more representative: Grant the 10 most populous states 2 additional Senators, the 15 next most populous states 1 additional Senator, and the District of Columbia 1 Senator.

2. Appoint all former Presidents and Vice Presidents to the new office of "National Senator."

3. Mandate non-partisan redistricting for House elections to enhance electoral competition.

4. Lengthen House terms to 3 years (from 2) and set Senate terms to coincide with all Presidential elections, so the entire House and Senate would be elected at the same time as the President.

5. Expand the size of the House to approximately 1,000 members (from current 435), so House members can be closer to their constituents, and to level the playing field in House elections.



[ Parent ]
Sabato's first point conflicts directly with the very purpose of the Senate......
The very purpose of having equal representation from the states in the Senate was to negate population differences that would undermine small states.  It was protection for the "little guy," defined in this instance as small states.  Given that at the founding the states were quasi-nation-states in conception, as evidenced by the fact of the Articles of Confederation which quickly proved unworkable, and the fact that Constitutionally the states are in fact sovereign, it made sense that small states' concerns would be deeply factored into the compromised structure of the federal government.

And the concept of state sovereignty still today undermines any notion of a population-based Senate.  There are too many small states to ever pass that kind of Amendment.  Really you'd have to give extra Senators to the number of states required for ratification of an Amendment, and throw the rest under the bus.

And I would think as a matter of SSP ground rules this would be an acceptable topic, to discuss the very structure of the national legislature.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Only partially
Small states would still get representation over and above what their numbers would justify in a purely proportional upper chamber of Congress.

The rest of what you say is certainly true, especially w/r/t the practicality of such a proposal.  


[ Parent ]
I guess I was thinking it's too close to policy, but I suppose that the mods will tell us if it goes too far
I don't really think it's worth it to try to reform the Senate that way, if you're going to try something that's never going to happen (and I have no illusions about my own proposals being realistic insofar as they'd ever become part of the Constitution). Like I said, I'd pretty much strip the Senate of any real power relative to the House, or give them a de-facto veto power against the House, but they'd have to get at least say 55 senators to agree to exercise it (or 60 or 67 depending on how much leverage you want the Senate to have). That way the Senate is still relevant but only if the House has taken a very extreme position.

And, like I said before, I'd make House elections proportional, and either make larger regional borders or nationalize the whole damn thing (I don't like the idea of arbitrary districts, if you want the will of the people to be respected, you make gerrymandering irrelevant).

As I said, this is all pretty pie-in-the-sky, but that's basically how I'd do things if I were given the ability to remake the US government.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
I agree
Personally, I'd like to see either a unicameral federal legislature or a Senate elected by Israel-style national proportional representation, and in either case, have the a government where the legislative leaders are much more powerful than the President.

[ Parent ]
agree
There isn't a dime's worth of ideological difference between the senate and the assembly, but they regularly get into pointless turf wars.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Argh, bad night.
I mean "Did the Texas GOP worry...."

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
And speaking of Texas
come 2012, it too will have more U.S. House members than State Senators (36 vs. 33).

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Let us hope
that the state GOP maxed out last time and that this time around they can't really do anything to hurt us more.  I even heard that 2-3 of the new seats may have to be VRA.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
But the budget deficit is so BIG...
And Jerry Brown keeps talking about "austerity", so there's no way in hell any proposal to expand The CA Legislature flies.  

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
State senators
Should not represent more people than Congressmen.

[ Parent ]
I can't remember the last time
   that State Senators didn't represent more people than U.S. Representatives. I've had some fairly impressive State Senators: my current Senator is Fran Pavley, author of the CA global warming pollution regulation bill. Before that we had Sheila Kuehl, whose signature bill was the CA One Care single-payer health insurance bill. Before Sheila it was Tom Hayden, more famous previously as a peace activist and rabble rouser. We're in the Fightin' 23rd, with almost a million residents.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

[ Parent ]
In California at least
the last time the 40 state senators outnumbered the House delegation was 1970, when California went from 38 Representatives to 43.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
They don't
They generally repesent only their own butts.

Increasing the number of CA state senators would have to be one of the top 5 worst ideas in political history.  Bleech.  The state is dysfunctional enough as is.


[ Parent ]
Unless it's California...
Where dysfunction is "normal". And again, since another epic budget battle is already brewing, there's just no way any proposal to expand The CA Legislature advances. The CA Legislature is full time, and I believe salaries are now in the six figures.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
C'mon, Chris!
How can you mention Greg Sowards candidacy without mentioning his awesome URL:

www.shortbaldhonest.com


NV-Sen: Ralston on Ensign...
He's sounding quite bullish on Dean Heller running, so is it time to just concede NV-Sen already? Maybe not. Heller has a history of backing away from what could become tough fights. Remember, he chose NOT to run against Harry Reid this year despite so many GOPers begging him to. And while he actually has a better working relationship with Reid than Ensign, Heller still may not want to jump into a fight he isn't confident about winning.

Even Ralston himself is aware of this.

As I have said, the congressman is well aware of political timing and knows when to run and when not to. So often these decisions are not just about political factors - Heller is close to incoming Speaker John Boehner, he is in the majority for the first time, the House GOP ranks probably will grow in 2012. But Heller also has a large family and his wife, Lynn, has a large influence on him. The personal can trump the political.

So I think Heller, who I believe wants badly to run and does not like Ensign, will evaluate the atmospherics, personal and political, and decide by 2011's midpoint.

While I still think it's quite possible Heller does it, since he pretty much is the GOP's only hope of holding onto this seat, I also think Heller's prime position in the GOP led House may be too comfy for him to give up, especially when the alternative may end up being a VERY heated primary.

And of course, there's always the $40 million question: Where will Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrron Angle run? We all know she wants to run for something, anything again, but will she settle for some lowly State Senate race, even if it is for long time nemesis Bill Raggio's seat (he's termed out in 2012) now that she's had a taste of the national spotlight? I'm feeling quite sure she'll go federal again. And if Heller decides to sit out NV-Sen in favor of basking in the safe red glow of NV-02, Angle may end up running for Senate again. Oh, the fireworks of an Ensign v. Angle primary!

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


I respect Ralston's commentary, but this strikes me as wrong:
"the House GOP ranks probably will grow in 2012"

I don't see that happeninng at all. I think they will be lucky to hold on to the House in 2012. They won too many marginal seats this year.  


[ Parent ]
It's ridiculous to try and predict anything until the new maps are drawn.


[ Parent ]
They're not going to win more seats than they have now though
Not unless things are really bad for the Democrats (in Illinois alone, we're probably going to be favored to win 4-5 seats after redistricting, thank you Governor Quinn!)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
We left
Quite a few seats on the table in 2010 that we could go back and pick up this year, like KY-06, IN-02, AR-04, some NC seats, WV-03, and a few others. However, ya'll also have some good pick up opportunities, like TX-27, MN-08, IL-08, and others. I doubt we see gains of more than +10 either way at this point.  

[ Parent ]

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