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SSP Daily Digest: 11/30

by: Crisitunity

Tue Nov 30, 2010 at 3:59 PM EST


• AK-Sen: Joe Miller lost yet another courtroom round yesterday, although this one was kind of inconsequential from a legal standpoint: he'd wanted his court challenges to the election to be held in his town of Fairbanks, but the venue will be the state capital, Juneau, instead. In most states that wouldn't be a big deal, but given the difficulty of getting from one town to the other, that provides one more logistical disincentive for Miller to continue his lost cause.

• FL-Sen: After having spent every day for the last two years laboriously typing out "Alexi Giannoulias" over and over, now I'm going to have to get used to "Mike Haridopolos." The newly minted Republican state Senate President is already acting Senate-candidate-ish, doing the DC circuit today, including a visit to the all-powerful US Chamber of Commerce.

• ME-Sen: Maine-area tea partiers are breathlessly telling everybody that they've found a primary challenger to Olympia Snowe who is "credible" and has the financial resources to become an "instant contender." The problem is, they're stopping there and not saying specifically who the mystery person is, although an announcement allegedly will happen in early 2011. (UPDATE: There's one useful piece of news buried deep in the article, actually: Chellie Pingree says she won't run for the Dems for this seat in 2012.)

• MO-Sen: This may be the most interesting news of the day: despite a likely run from a former one of their own (Jim Talent), the NRSC is actively encouraging Sarah Steelman's interest in the race, with John Cornyn assuring her that they'd stay neutral in a Talent/Steelman primary. As a former state Treasurer, she seems to have more credible chops than the Sharron Angle/Ken Buck axis that cost the GOP a couple seats this year, but still has enough credibility with the tea partiers so that it looks like the NRSC isn't trying to shove them back in the attic; they probably also think a female candidate might match up better against Claire McCaskill.

• MN-Gov: The numbers didn't budge much during the first full day of the Minnesota gubernatorial recount (where Mark Dayton leads by just shy of 9,000): Dayton gained 20 votes, while Tom Emmer lost four, after 44% of the ballots were recounted yesterday. Emmer challenged 281 ballots; Dayton challenged 86. While there weren't any write-ins for "Lizard People" this time, there was one vote cast for "Who Farted?"

• MO-Gov: Republican Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder's interest in running against his boss, Dem Jay Nixon, has been pretty clearly telegraphed for years already, but he's starting to make that look more tangible. He now says he won't run for another term as LG, and he also appeared at last week's RGA conference in San Diego.

• NY-01: Tim Bishop lost some minor ground with the counting of military ballots in the last House race still undecided. There weren't very many of them, but they broke pretty heavily in Randy Altschuler's way: 44-24. Bishop's lead is now apparently 215.

• WA-08: Maybe this one is better filed as "WATN?" Suzan DelBene, who narrowly lost to Dave Reichert, has landed on her feet; she was just appointed by Chris Gregoire as the new director of the state Dept. of Revenue. It's unclear, though, whether this is intended to raise her statewide profile and give her some governmental experience for future runs, or if this takes her off the table for a 2012 run in WA-08 (or hypothetical WA-10).

• NY-St. Sen.: Democratic state Sen. Antoine Thompson conceded to GOP challenger Mark Grisanti yesterday in the Buffalo-based SD-60. That means there are 31 GOP-held seats in the New York Senate; to get to a 31-31 tie, the Dems will need to hold both Suzi Oppenheimer's SD-37 (looking likely) and Craig Johnson's SD-7 (not looking likely, as he trails by several hundred, with the exact number not clear yet). (Or alternately, they could, as occasionally rumored, flip Grisanti, who was a Dem up until when he ran for the race and will essentially need to be one in order to be re-elected.) Thompson's loss is, in fact, pretty mystifying -- I knew this was a Dem-heavy district, but it went 77-22 for Obama (the equivalent of D+24 based on just 2008 numbers)! Ordinarily, a Dem would have to be under indictment or in dead-girl/live-boy territory to lose in that kind of district; in fact, everyone seems mystified, but the theory is that an upsurge in white votes in that district motivated by the candidacy of local fave Carl Paladino pushed Grisanti over the hump (although there are claims (we don't have the data to confirm yet) that Andrew Cuomo still managed to win in the 60th, which would tend to counteract that theory).

• State legislatures: We already mentioned four party-switchers from the Dems to the GOP in the Alabama legislature, following the change in the majority there, but there's also a handful of other changes to mention (though not as many changes as we saw in 1994): 13 changes in 5 states. That includes 5 in the Georgia House and 1 in the Georgia Senate, 1 in the South Dakota Senate, 1 in the Maine House, and in 1 in the Louisiana House (which had the consequence of officially flipping the chamber to GOP control, although that body already had a GOP speaker). Politico has more on the changes in the south (in a rather hyperbolically titled article).

• DSCC: It's official: Patty Murray is the one who got left holding the burning bag of dog doo. She signed on for a second stint as head of the DSCC for the 2012 cycle. She also ran it during the 2002 cycle, when the Democrats lost two seats.

• DGA: One of the other Dem holes needing to be filled also got filled today: Martin O'Malley, fresh off a surprisingly easy victory in Maryland (and possibly looking at something bigger in 2016), is taking over the helm at the DGA. With only a couple troublesome holds on the horizon in 2012, I'd imagine this job was a little easier to fill than the DSCC.

• Demographics: Democracy Corps (or GQR, if you prefer) is out with a memo that's worth a read. Most of it is about messaging, which is a little outside SSP's scope (though still worth a read, in terms of what worked, and mostly didn't work, in 2010, and what recent polls have shown works better going forward). There's also some discussion of demographics, though, in terms of what kind of a turnout model they're expecting (or at least hoping for) in 2012.
Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 11/30
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SSP Daily Digest: 11/30 | 286 comments
Are any other
Democrats willing to chip in some money to fund the random campaigns of Sharon Angle and Alan Keyes in different parts of the country?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
not in this economy

[ Parent ]
this will sound odd
maybe even blasphemous, but i wish there was some way to get lieberman to be the DSCC chair, in a way where he will be blamed if things go bad, but there's also no risk that he's trying to to sabotage anyone, or would do a piss poor job.  never could happen i know, but still i can dream, right?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
Can't b/c hr's up for reelection
and he can't do it after 2012 because he won't be a senator
[ Parent ]
Also can't do it b/c he's not a Democrat. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Is Steelman any stronger than Talent?
I generally don't like running retreads (there are exceptions, such as Mike Fitzpatrick and Steve Chabot), but Steelman doesn't look that impressive either. She lost the '08 gubernatorial primary to Kenny Hulshof, who went on to lose handily, and backed out of a 2010 Senate bid when she realized she wouldn't beat Blunt. Talent wouldn't be my first choice (Graves or Emerson would be), but I really question if Steelman is the answer for the Missouri GOP.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
Not really
I know as much about her as any other typical elections watcher not from MO and she has always came off a bit weak to me.
[ Parent ]
VT politics 2012
dubie's going to be some sort of "ambassador" to Quebec for the Shumlin administration.

http://www.vpr.net/news_detail...

This suggests that he's not going to be involved in any race come 2012.  for anyone interested in who might challenge Bernie or Shumlin, this leaves

Tom Salmon:  state auditor 2007-present.  turned from dem to republican in 2009.  Son of a former governor.  he's been telegraphing a run at Bernie, bt could go after shumlin.  his credibility as a statewide officeholder could get him into the low 40's.

Randy Brock: One term auditor whom salmon defeated in 2006.  currently a state senator.  has a 1-10% chance of beating shumlin IF things go badly for shumlin and a Progressive runs.  could not beat Bernie.

Jim Douglas: Soon to be former governor and will then become a Middlebury college professor.  would have a slight chance at both office.  99.99% chance he will never run for another office ever again.

Ruth Dwyer: gubernatorial nominee against dean in 2000, tea partier before it was cool.  I have NOT heard anything about her wanting to run, but seeing how so many conservative republicans have been hitching onto the tea party wagon, i would not be surprised if she tried again.

Some Random Republican: a random Republican state senator, house rep, mayor, businessman, teacher, whomever.  might break 35% if s/he's lucky.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

Preparing to secede in case things get out of hand?
My brother lives in Burlington and he's reported that Québécois have told him that if Vermont ever wanted to join Québec they would be fine with that.  When he mentioned the language issue they said that while it was true that most Vermonters don't speak French "they don't mind if other people do".

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
naw
we'll just start our own nation.  we like canada, but if we quit america, we'd quit everyone and become a hermit nation.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
I got the impression the Dubie/Quebec thing is temporary
More a case of working with Shumlin during the transition and early days of the administration to get up and running on Quebec relations, rather than a role that would continue for any length of time into the new administration. At least that is what folks working on the transition have told me, and if you read between the lines, that is what the press coverage also seems to say.

Word among a lot of political folks is that Dubie, who has just moved from Chittenden County to his family land in Franklin County, is looking at a run for State Senate from Franklin County (which he carried very handily against Shumlin, losing only one town in the entire country.)

Don't expect to see him run statewide in 2012 (a horrible idea for any Republican to attempt statewide with Obama and Bernie Sanders on the ticket...), but he would very likely to want to serve in the legislature and be in a position to run for Governor in 2014 or beyond.

--

Unless Shumlin screws things up entirely, he is not going to be vulnerable in 2012, especially riding Obama's and Sanders' coat-tails.

--

You left out the strongest member of the Republican bench in Vermont in the form of  newly-elected Lieutenant Governor Phil Scott. He's got a moderate reputation, a lot of cross-over appeal, blue collar street cred, and good geography from representing Democratic Washington county in the Senate. I don't anticipate him running for anything other than re-election in 2012, but he will be able to use the lite gov position to solidify his statewide standing and name-identification for a future race. Keep an eye on this guy, he's the future of the Republican party in VT.

Jim Douglas will not run for statewide office again - while he would be a formidable candidate for any position, he is done with electoral politics. The only position I'd anticipate seeing him is would be Ambassador to Canada in a future Republican administration (although he will continue to be elected town meeting moderator in Middlebury any year he wants to hold the position!)

Randy Brock is definitely looking for an opening for higher office -- I expect him to run for something statewide in 2012. I don't think he can beat Bernie or Shumlin -- more likely to run for Auditor again (assuming Salmon runs for higher office), or Treasurer (against whoever Shumlin appoints to the vacancy created by moving Jeb Spaulding to Secretary of Administration -- although that is a tough race if Shumlin appoints Deb Markowitz to that job, as I think he is going to do.)

Tom Salmon is ambitious and has an overly high opinion of his own political skills and appeal. He seems sincerely interested in a run against Bernie (a suicide mission), but I wouldn't rule out the idea of him deciding to go against Shumlin instead.

What Tom doesn't seem to get is that Republicans really don't like him and think he is shallow (and possibly personally unbalanced and or alcoholic) - the party establishment almost got Randy Brock to challenge him in a primary this year, and Republican voters don't view him as one of their own. And he doesn't realize that he has no cross-over appeal to Democrats anymore -- it has been more than 30 years since his father was governor, and his party-changing game has pissed everyone off. He was lucky to win re-election against an unknown and under-funded challenger this year -- but it wasn't a sign of any real political strength on his part.

--

A few other Republican names likely to run for office in the future (whether that is 2012 against Shumlin or Bernie, or a run in the later year...):

Tom Lauzon, the Mayor of Barre, a formerly solidly Democratic blue collar town, is definitely positioning himself for a statewide run in the near future. Look for him to go for Senate against Bernie if Salmon doesn't run, but a run against Shumlin wouldn't be out of the question.

Neil Lunderville wants to run for office sometime, but starting at Governor seems too high to aim - but his service as Jim Douglas's hatchet man and administrative chief means that he has all the party connections he needs.

Also expect Mark Snelling to try to go statewide again (after losing the Lt Gov primary this year to Phil Scott, but his family name and business connections means he is still viable), State Senator Vince Illuzzi always makes noises about running but never actually does it, and Rutland State Senator Kevin Mullin is viewed by many as having statewide potential.


[ Parent ]
I think the turnout issues listed in D Corps report are worth repeating
excerpted from the report -- bolding mine

   * Young people -- down to off-year levels

   * Union households. In 2010, the unions' off-year proportion of the electorate dropped

   * Single women. The single biggest base problem in 2010 was the drop in Democratic support among unmarried women.  

   * Suburban. Overall, the Democratic vote was down 8-points in the suburbs


I noticed that one comment that disturbed me...
They talked about how the losses int he south were probably permanent, but how the industrial midwest "cannot be permanent".

I wouldn't figure out what they meant by "cannot"... cannot being that "we cannot let that be permanent" or "there is no way that will be permanent".

I hope it's the latter.

[ Parent ]
Probably a little of both
The Midwest is bound to be a perennial battleground as it has for the past few decades.  If the Democrats lose that permanently, they lose the House permanently.  We have nowhere else to trawl for seats other than to make up some of our lost ground in the West, so the only electorally rich region that we can hope to find 25 seats in is going to have to be the Midwest.
[ Parent ]
Changing demographics
I don't think anything is truly permanent. The internal South and the North East perhaps are the closest to that. The electoral map will look fascinating mid-century - Democrats winning the coastal South and Texas, Republicans winning the industrial Midwest.
[ Parent ]
South and midwest
Our current position in the South is much worse than after 1994. Some of the seats can be won back.  Two of the three losses in Texas are Hispanic seats, one won by an Anglo (Farenthold).  VA-2 is an urban area carved out to maximize white/Republican votes.  Nonetheless, it is winnable.  Perriello's seat is winnable.Three of the four F;orida losses (Grayson, Kosmas, Klein) are probably winnable.  West Virginia 1 might be winnable.

Currently, we are left with majority minority districts and a few urban areas in much of the south (Memphis, Nashville, Austin, Tampa, Charlotte, Rahleigh Durham, Gene Green in TX).  My guess is that barring a continued economic mess we have hit bottom and should gain back a few seats.

Eleven seats were lost in NY and PA.  That is a big hunting ground for 2012.  NH with 2 more might also be in the mix.

CA never had the gains from 2006 and 2008.  We held CA-11 this time around and could pick up a few seats in 2012.

At best, we could gain 20 of the 25 seats we need without the midwest.

 

[ Parent ]
NV-Sen
Sue Lowden talks to the Reno Gazette-Journal:

"I'm still surprised I didn't win," Lowden said. "I thought I'd be packing for D.C. right now, absolutely." [...]

"Chickens are funny," Lowden said. "I didn't know just how funny they were. People enjoyed that and got a laugh."

She was shocked that the comment at a town hall meeting in rural Nevada became so widespread so quickly.

"And how it went national," Lowden said. "I will never understand that, how it was interpreted as something funny. But chickens are a funny subject.

"I don't know if that was the defining moment," Lowden said. "But I look back and still don't quite understand how that took off the way it did. I didn't understand how it went so nuclear. I don't understand why it got so big."


Lowden comes off to me now as vacant......
That "chickens are funny" remark came off as strange, I read it repeatedly and couldn't figure out what she meant by that or how it fit into the storyline of what happened.  It's as if she went off on a strange tangent.  I want to try to give a long leash before judging because much is lost in translation from a verbal interview to print reporting; you don't have the context or body language of the dialogue, so something transcribed literally doesn't capture what was actually conveyed.

But the entirety of Lowden's handling of the chicken/bartering discussion screams out "CLUELESS!"  Her original discussion very clearly was not discussing bartering for medical services merely as a point of historical reference, but as a potential solution.  It could have been a brain fart, talking without firt thinking all the way through her notion, but that she refused to acknowledge that and kept defending her remarks says otherwise.  She tries to say she's not advocating it as "policy," but at the same time she defends it as a potential solution.

And with all that backstory, her "chickens are funny" remark is yet one more data point establishing to me that she just doesn't have a lot going on upstairs.

Reid lucked out that all his would-be opponents were such disasters.  I would say that Tarkanian would've been stronger, but that he couldn't beat Lowden or Angle suggests otherwise.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
So here's a fun little SSP fact
As of January 2011, the largest state with a one-party congressional delegation will be: Kansas. This will be the first time that the Republicans will hold this honor since...well, I don't know when. They certainly didn't have this going for them after 1994 in any state that I'm aware of (I think, in fact, Dems might have still held that distinction after 1994 with Hawaii).

One party congressional delegation means both Senate and House. Kansas replaces Maryland, which replaced Massachusetts after the Scott Brown election. Now I know some of you will say: what about Connecticut, a bigger state population wise than Kansas? Well, that depends on how you view Joe Lieberman. He caucuses with the Democrats, so an argument can be made because of this that this is the largest one party Congressional state. However, Lieberman seems to consider himself an "Independent Democrat" (according to his official Senate Designation), so I think he doesn't count as a full Democrat. (also, he endorsed John McCain). Others may disagree.

Maryland never had a one party delegation
Roscoe Bartlett in the 6th district is a Republican.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
Maryland?
Aren't you forgetting Roscoe Bartlett?

Checking Wiki, Maryland hasn't been quite all-Democratic in a good while.

27, Democratic, IL-01

[ Parent ]
It was previously Rhode Island, I believe
And the only others would be SD, ID, WY, and HI. Massachusetts, Maine, and Nebraska also have a one-party House delegation but a Senator of the opposite party.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Oh, yup, I did forget about Bartlett. Sorry.
So, yeah, I guess it would have been Rhode Island.  
[ Parent ]
not SD
It's had a Senate split for a while now.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
It did briefly
have an all-Democratic delegation in 2004 between Herseth Sandlin's election to the House seat and Daschle's loss.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Whoops
I always think Mike Rounds is a Senator for some reason instead of a Governor, and I always forget about Johnson.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
I just researched this a little further...
Kansas actually had this distinction in 1995-96 as well (I thought Jim Slattery was still part of the delegation, but he actually ran for governor in 1994)  
[ Parent ]
What of MA
pre-Scott Brown? I think that was all D for a number of cycles.
[ Parent ]
d'oh, you said that
I should read before posting...
[ Parent ]
Oklahoma from 1997-2001
Had a full GOP-only delegation of two Republican Senators and 6 Republican congressmen.
[ Parent ]
Right - Oklahoma would have been #2 for those years
After Massachusetts
[ Parent ]
My view of the matter
is that Buffalo is tired of Byron Brown and his protege Thompson suffered because of that. I read there was some active sabotage between the county Democratic party and it's almost to the point of civil war. It also appears that's why Cuomo had such an unusually large loss there while romping elsewhere; many Democrats in the local infrastructure have longstanding qualms with him, and Paladino was sort of their stalking horse candidate.

Minority turnout was very low, and Thompson completely took the election for granted. Shocking that this seat could cost Democrats a tie in the State Senate.  

Grisanti is a registered democrat running in the republican line

I think they are some chance of see him returning home. I hope someone works for it.

To lose this seat is a hard coup for the democrats from New York.

[ Parent ]
RIP Steve Solarz
Former Congressman Steve Solarz died yesterday at the age of 70. He was a family friend of mine and there are many who will miss him greatly. He brought down the Marcos regime in the Phillipines and was a great friend to India and Israel in the United States Congress. Also notable is he was the biggest supporter of the original Bush's Gulf War in the Democratic party and brought the War Authorization bill to the House floor.

Here's a really good article about Steve and Chuck Schumer. Solarz enabled Chuck's career at the beginning when he won Solarz's old seat for the Assembly, but redistricting made them enemies for the rest of their political lives.

http://www.capitalnewyork.com/...

I feel sad too
 My parents told me some of their older relatives really liked him.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
RIP


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
That article was a very interesting read.
RIP Solarz.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Georgia Switchers
Golden's switch is a big blow. He just finished serving as Minority Caucus Chairman.

However, he, along with Hooks have long been the two most Conservative Democrats in the Senate Democratic Caucus.

There's a rumor that there could be one more switch in the State Senate. I have no idea who it could be. Hooks is my State Senator and is the "Dean of the Senate". He's long been respected by both sides and wields quite a bit of power.

The switchers in the State House are a mixture. All were Conservative Democrats, but Hanner, Greene and Powell had been in office 35+, 27, and 20 years respectively. The other two, Carter and Black, have been in office less than a decade.

Seeing Hanner, Greene, and Powell switch actually surprise me. Considering their longevity, I'd have thought they would have switched a few cycles ago when the GOP did takeover.

All of that said, the Georgia Senate now has 1 Conservative Democrat in the Caucus, down from 3 (J.B. Powell ran for Agriculture Commissioner).

The House, well, I think I can count maybe two Conservative leaning Democrats now.

Amazing how fast things change in politics.

I guess now
is as good a time as any to ask, what's the effect of these switches? It's obviously a matter of control of a chamber and any power that comes along with it if it helps either an assembly or a state senate go to the Republicans, but aside from that, what is there? I mean, these were conservative Democrats. Will their voting records change that drastically now that they are Republicans?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Who are these two?
Well, i think it would be an intersting task to make a roster of really conservative Democrats still serving in US legislatures (after 2010 avalanche it won't be long) and may be our Republican friends here will make similar list of really moderate Republicans (it won't be long either "thanks" to teabaggers).

I never hid that i like mavericks everytime and everywhere. So for me it will be especially interesting.... When (and if)American politics will become monotonously ideologized with all Democratic candidates being "progressives" and all Republican - teabaggers, i will stop closely follow it)))

[ Parent ]
CA list
Conservative Dems, both houses:

None.

Moderate Reeps, both houses:

None since Abel Maldonado left. Roger Niello was sort-of moderate, but not really moderate.  

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Thanks!
Well, i expected that from California.It's extremely gerrymandered - all dstrict are either liberal Democratic or conservative Republican. I can only hope that situation changes something after Prop. 20 will go into effect...
[ Parent ]
prop 14
Also prop 14 from the June ballot, which switched the state's primaries to the all-party primary followed by a top-2 runoff like Washington uses.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Yes. This one - too

[ Parent ]
MN-Recount
RT @tomscheck: Hennepin County Elections Manager says Emmer team made 894 frivolous challenges in last two days. She says Dayton team made 13. #mnrecount

Challenges that are deemed frivolous are separated but are counted in the totals released by the SOS. Non Frivolous challenges are not included in the SOS's numbers.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

I also saw they challenged 422 ballots
in Renville county which cast only about 2600 ballots total.  All deemed frivolous.
[ Parent ]
I read the Emmer Rep...
... in Renville county was told to challenge any ballot that had any writing on it so she challenged any ballot where someone voted for a write in candidate in any race.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Someone answer me this
After reading this:
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

I thought to myself: "Why the heck won't any GOP bigwigs (other than likely 2012 contenders like Romney and Huck) come right out and say that she is NOT qualified to be president?"  The fact is that she could win the GOP primary, and then she'll be crushed worse than Barry Goldwater in '64.  Why won't anyone step forward and pour cold water on this prospect?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

They don't want to
Face the wrath of her supporters.  
[ Parent ]
I pretty much agree.
It's not entirely certain she intends to run, but the people that would like her to run are crucial to anyone who wants a solid base of Republican support in the next election. Why piss off a large group of people right now where there's no clear benefit to doing so?

As much as I would like her to be the nominee because I think she will be crushed badly, I've thought for some time now that it is very unlikely to happen. There's a limit to much behind the scenes maneuvering can affect a primary, but it certainly can be a big figure. I figure that if it looks like Obama will be even remotely beatable, there will be plenty of candidates other than Palin who will step up the the plate, one of whom will receive the majority of the institutional support. And if it looks like he won't be beat, she won't face nearly as many credible challengers. She'll have a much better chance if it looks like the Republican candidate will be a sacrificial lamb, but even then, I am not sure. After all, why would they want to make losses any larger than they'd otherwise be if Obama will win reelection and convincingly so? (And if they are going to put up a candidate that will lose, I could see them going with a credible female candidate or a Hispanic. It'd clearly be a ploy, but it wouldn't necessarily be an ineffective one.)

Basically, I think Palin can be the kingmaker, but not the king. I bet a lot of people feel the same way. I just wonder if any of these people are telling her this.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
There's a smarter, more strategic reason than that......
Smart strategy and tactics right now for each prospective Presidential candidate is to establish his own identity, and self-define.  Going after prospective rivals clouds self-definition, and in fact can hurt one's own public image not because the base loves Palin, but because it looks unseemly for someone who doesn't have a strong identiy of his own attacking out of the blue someone who is not an announced candidate this early out of the gate.

In short, now is the time to talk about yourself, not about other people who might or might not run for President.

If and when it's clear Palin is actually running for President, all the others will start unloading on her.  It doesn't matter if the base loves her, that's just all the more reason, not less, for others wanting the GOP Presidential nomination to attack her.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Because the base of the GOP thinks otherwise
Must suck to be the party whose base contains the entire anti-intellectual community.  Nothing says "educated voter" like someone who thinks Darwin made everything up!
[ Parent ]
Simple
If she doesn't run then they want her endorsement. They don't want her as an enemy if she's not in it. If she doesn't run and they bash her then they'd be in for hell. In the primary at least. Personally I doubt she runs, hoping to be wrong though.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Yup, smart point. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Why should they?
It's clear to me that Palin is unqualified.  Most Republicans like Palin - but at the same time don't believe she is presidential material.

Huckabee was a popular and effective governor in a state that (at the time anyway) preferred Democrats in local elections.  He won reelection twice.

Huckabee would mop the floor in a debate with Palin.  It would be no contest.  She would be unmatched in a battle of wits, a battle of communication and a battle of gravitas.

And when Mike Huckabee can have more gravitas than you - you're in trouble.

The same would hold true of just about any candidate who aspires to run for the Republican nomination.  Jindal, Daniels, Johnson of NM, Thune...you name it.  They'll run circles around Palin when it comes to issues.

No one has to say anything to cut down Palin.  It's one thing for the base to rally to her defense when she is doing battle with the liberal Obama.  It's another when she is fighting with people who are more like-minded than not.

[ Parent ]
I deliberately left Romney out though
MassCare will be the death of Romney.  Republicans and Independents who vote in a GOP primary aren't going to accept a candidate that forces a health insurance mandate on them.
[ Parent ]
Forced?
That bill passed in the MA legislature by a vast majority and had broad support in both parties there.  Even a State Senator named Scott Brown or something voted for it.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Sure it will haunt him in the primaries
but by no means did he "force" MassCare on the people of MA.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
That's not the point
Romney went out for a year touting how good it was and excplicitly said how he likes mandates.  On a liberal/Dem blog obviously we're going to have disagreements on the merits of such a law - but that's not what I'm debating here.

My point is that from a conservative point of view, Romney actively sought the law or at least tacitly accepted its enactment.  That isn't going to wash with a Republican Primary electorate.

[ Parent ]
Reminds me of Snowe
He has been trying to distance himself from it now that he realizes that the GOP has gone crazy for purity, but they won't forget it and it will probably be his undoing.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Never mind that
he'll probably be the one with the highest chance of winning the general.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
It looks that way now, but...
I'm not sure.

If Romney were to win the nomination then every time the health care bill came up, Obama would just remind everyone how the Dems modeled their bill after Massachusetts.

That's a surefire way to depress GOP turnout.  So even though Romney polls best against Obama NOW there's no guarantee that he would continue to do so after the campaign played out.

It's hard to say who wins the nomination - but Romney's only chance is to take the McCain track of losing IA and winning NH.  It's viable - but it leaves very little room for error.  The only reason McCain won the nomination is because he got lucky in South Carolina.  Thompson, Huckabee, Romney (at the time) split the conservative vote and McCain won with something like 32 percent.  It really was a fluke and 8000 votes the other way would have knocked McCain off stride in SC.  Without SC McCain would have lost FL.  Without FL he would never have amassed the delegates he needed on 2/2/08.

[ Parent ]
The way I see it
If Huckabee runs he has the best chance of winning the primary.  He'll probably win IA and SC.  If he does, then he will sweep the south and border region, including Texas, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Kansas and all points southeast.  

Obviously it will depend on who runs and how well each candidate runs - but Huckabee has the easiest path at this point.

He's not my favorite candidate as he's a bit too preachy for my tastes, but he is probably the most underrated candidate the GOP has.  Bill Clinton thinks so too.

[ Parent ]
Barack
Obama and the WH thinks so as well if I remember correctly. Daniels or Thune would be much better, though Daniels isn't running. Thune probably is, but he won't do much of anything and will fizzle early on, but if I was a Republican I would be hoping for Thune as the nominee.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Daniels
I am conflicted on if he will run. I think he wants to, but his wife does not. I also doubt he'd run against Barbour, and I am almost certain Barbour is running. I think Thune is very underrated. I could see him shocking everyone in Iowa, and riding the momentum from there. If he didn't vote for TARP, I'd almost call him a favorite.  
[ Parent ]
I don't think Barbour could win
Daniels and Thune more likely to than him.  Barbour would not get much momentum outside of the deep south.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
See
I don't think he wants to run. I do think he would like to be President but I don't think he wants all the hell you have to go through to get elected. At the end of the day he loves being an executive but he's not that into the spotlight and wouldn't like getting all the attention and his wife certainly wouldn't either as you said. I doubt he runs.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Much better to run against?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I think so, too.
I suspect it's because he already has the social conservative credentials. I don't know a lot about his record in Arkansas, but supposedly he has to apologize for trying to raise taxes or something. Whatever he has to make amends for on the fiscal end, it's far easier to do that, I think, than to try to tack towards the right on social issues.

Besides that, he comes across as a nice guy. I would never vote for him, but I don't hate him. You might even say I like him, at least as a person. That's saying a lot, given how hostile I am towards most Republican leaders.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
And
there is his pardoning a rapist who went on to commit another rape/murder in Missouri. Let the Dukakis comparisons begin.

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[ Parent ]
Aren't there more than a few examples of this sort of thing?
I actually wonder how much this will kill him compared to his basic proud denial of things like global climate change. It certainly won't help him, but I'm not sure it's going to turn off more people than his appearance of ignorance.

Pawlenty might have problems with this sort of thing, too, although his pardon seems far more understandable. I wouldn't hold this against Pawlenty, but then, I wouldn't vote for him anyway. Check out this link: http://www.theatlanticwire.com...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
well
I think Huckabee is the favorite, yeah, and probably the best shot.

Unless Rick Perry runs. Half of me things he doesn't want it, half of me thinks he is holding out.

[ Parent ]
Rick Perry? Really?
C'mon, Romney has a better chance than him in a general race.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
really
I think you're dead wrong about that.

Slick Hair Rick doesn't have a significant issue with either the social guys or the fiscal guys in a primary. That puts him a step ahead of a lot of other players.

[ Parent ]
I'm sure
that his past flirtations with secession will play nicely.  As will his whining about the role of the federal government while Texas receives considerably more from the government than it pays in with taxes and whatnot.  King Governor Perry won't last on the national stage.  Besides, I highly doubt he is interested in doing so.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
that stuff
Really only matters to political junkies and insiders.

Change comes TO washington, not FROM washington, remember?  

[ Parent ]
Well in Texas
loads of "change" (well, dollars) come flooding FROM Washington more than it sends out TO Washington.

And "only matters to political junkies"?  It was in the national news, for pete's sake.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
and who actually cares about that?
If the people of New Jersey did, we wouldn't keep electing the same politicians who have kept us in last place in that category.

[ Parent ]
Nobody does
I'm just twisting that phrase for comedic effect.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Be careful.
Texas actually gets back 94 cents for every dollar it sends to DC. It's a lot more than California (78 cents for every dollar), but it still puts Texas in the donor range.

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[ Parent ]
Plus
Perry was never serious about secession.  He simply pointed out that there was a provision allowing for it in the state's constitution if the voters of TX thought the federal government has usurped too much power.

Anyone seriously ticked off over such hypothetical rhetoric probably won't vote for Perry in a general election anyway.

And obviously it won't hurt him (should he decide to run)in the GOP primary.

[ Parent ]
That provision
would allow TX to split into 5 states.  However, each of these 5 states would need to be granted statehood by the US if such a thing were to happen.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
That's why I said "flirted"
instead of "supports"

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
the formula is really much simpler than that
He has:

1. Name recognition
2. Fundraising ability
3. Political clout
4. A state that's likely sitting at 6-7% unemployment in 2012
5. No significant beef with the social conservatives
6. No significant beef with the tea party guys
7. He's nothing like Obama
8. He obviously doesn't like Washington. Neither does a lot of the rest of the country

[ Parent ]
He has:
1. A massive budget shortfall to deal with.
2. A problem with shooting off his mouth.
3. A desire to stay governor so he can live like a king.
4. No real solutions.
5. None of that "compassionate conservatism" that would give him a good shot.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
most of that isn't even true dude
By 2012 he won't have a massive budget shortfall.

The rest is you just not liking the guy. Which is fine.

[ Parent ]
It
will be solved by cutting everything and succeeding in sending Texas back to the stone age.  Still, the fact remains that the massive shortfall is there during the administration of a "fiscal conservative."

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
last time I checked
Washington DC ALSO has a 'massive shortfall'.

[ Parent ]
Ah
so you don't object to budget shortfalls anywhere then.  I guess we're square.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Where did you get that from?
All I am saying is that it's going to look really stupid for Obama and company to be rambling about budget shortfalls. You can do whatever you want on a forum.

The Texas legislature hasn't met yet, so whining about a budget shortfall that they haven't closed yet is silly.

[ Parent ]
I inferred
since you don't object to the TX budget shortfall, I guess that ought to fairly apply everywhere else.

Also, the state of Texas is not budgeting for things like two international wars (that may not be necessary to our security) and an exceedingly bloated military budget like the US federal government is.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
Apples and oranges.
Unlike most states they do not have a constitutional requirement to balance the budget.

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[ Parent ]
Ah, so they are that "1 state"
They say 49 states require balanced budgets and I constantly wonder which one that "1 state" is.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I was referring
to the Federal Government.

Every state except Vermont has a constitutional requirement to balance the budget.

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[ Parent ]
Thank you for that clarification.
n/t

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Right
I'm just confused as to what exactly the issue is. There are 3 facts here.

1. He will balance it one way or another in a couple months.
2. Liberals will almost certainly not like the way he chooses to do this.
3. He will not really give a damn what liberals think.

[ Parent ]
Response:
1. He will balance it and the state will become poorer and poorer and high-tech jobs will leave for greener pastures in places like NC and IA.

2. The "liberals" you refer to who will not like this will be the impoverished, women, children, college students, and elderly of Texas.  That's a lot of "liberals."

3. He will not give a damn what liberals anybody think.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
you're just burying your head in the sand at this point
1 hasn't happened, 2 is irrelevant as those people don't vote in a Republican primary and vote Democrat anyway in a general, and 3 is obviously untrue or he wouldn't keep winning.

Here's a good newsweek article about it.

http://www.newsweek.com/2010/1...

[ Parent ]
I'd rather have the TX natives
here talk about the situation since, you know, they actually live there.

1. Is poised to happen as consequences of the shortfall.

2. Will become increasingly relevant if their states lets stabs them in the back.  Also, didn't know that the state's elderly vote Dem.

3. Is obviously true, but he keeps winning due to his deep connections with the establishment there, the organizing weakness of the state Dem party, and the current large lead of registered Republicans who tended to reflexively vote R in an R year.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
Would you also rather have
Republicans talk about who's likely to win a Republican primary? Because you aren't doing that.

Take a look at Redstate if you don't believe me. Or take a look at the numbers. There's only 2 states that have gained private sector jobs in the last decade, I'll let you guess who they are.

[ Parent ]
In the past decade
TX has gained the most population of any state, which is why they are gaining four congressional seats, although 2 or 3 may have to be VRA seats.

Also, what kind of jobs?  High-tech, service, communications, etc. jobs or manual labor jobs?  Are they high-paying or low-paying?

Furthermore, Texas cities are the bulk of the reason for the increase in jobs in a state that has a policy of "home rule."  Therefore, many thanks are owed to Dallas, Houston, and Austin.  Now, which party dominates in those cities....

Houston expanded the most by far.  Now, who was the mayor during that period of growth....

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
Yeah, what jobs have been made here?
I'd like to have one, but no one around here is hiring. I spent the last 3 months searching but every employer I talked to said no. My boyfriend and our door-to-door salespeople neighbors would like some jobs too.

And last I checked, Florida is actually losing people, even including immigrants.

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[ Parent ]
Florida
was the other state that gained private sector jobs earlier this decade.

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[ Parent ]
Shrug
The data shows they are hiring somebody even if its not you. Texas has more fortune 500 companies than any other state.
[ Parent ]
Actually California ties Texas
for most Fortune 500 companies. http://money.cnn.com/magazines...

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[ Parent ]
Good
Now we're talking about facts rather than your projected opinions of what might or might not happen.

Now, per the article:

The Texas economy has benefited from widening diversification. Houston has a robust energy business and medical-services industry, and thriving international trade-all long-term growth areas. Dallas enjoys an expanding tech sector and well-developed business-service industries tied to a powerful corporate base. San Antonio has a strong military connection and an expanding manufacturing capacity, and it is a key locale for the growing Latino marketplace. What's more, Texas offers pro-business policies and relatively low taxes, and the physical infrastructure in the cities is generally as good or better than in many East and West coast metropolitan areas.

Texas also has a large Enterprise Fund to work with.

http://governor.state.tx.us/pr...

You can do some more reading on this if you wish. Positive job growth simply puts him on better footing than his fellow governors who hold negative job growth tenures.

[ Parent ]
Ah, the website of the Governor
that totally won't whitewash over any problems the state is facing and neither will it put a rosy face on everything as every government strives to do.

-----

Seriosuly, though, listen to the people who actually LIVE there.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
Yeah.
So there is an expanding tech sector and well-developed business-service industries here in Dallas. So why can't I or my boyfriend find work, and why does my dad's company have a hiring freeze?

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[ Parent ]
Sounds like a personal problem
But how would I know? You're in the best state for business according to chief executive magazine.


[ Parent ]
Yeah
a magazine that polled just 651 CEOs and has a circulation of a whopping 42,000 copies per issue. I wonder what CEOs they polled and if they are representative of all CEOs nationwide.

And I also find this survey questionable for one other reason. California, that by itself whose GDP would rank as 10th largest in the world, at #51? I don't think so.

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[ Parent ]
let me ask you this, then
If you don't believe the BLS, or any other employment data, or the fact that Texas's unemployment is around 8% and you don't want to believe the CEOs, who exactly DO you want to believe?
[ Parent ]
I wish
there were surveys out there that in surveying which areas are great for business they'd go beyond just taxes and regulation. For example, what good will lower taxes do without an educated workforce? States can't keep relying on transplants from other states forever.

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[ Parent ]
Ok, here you go.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/...

This year's categories and weightings, for a total of 2,500 points, are:

Cost of Doing Business (450 points)
Workforce (350 points)
Quality of Life (350 points)
Economy (314 points)
Transportation & Infrastructure (300 points)
Technology & Innovation (250 points)
Education (175 points)
Business Friendliness (175 points)
Access to Capital (50 points)
Cost of Living (25 points)

We use publicly available data on the metrics in each category to score the states, and then add up those scores to rank America's Top States for Business.

I could give you job links, but I'd just be googling and feeding you results. You can do that on your own.

You can either go with the numbers or against them; I hope you make the right decision.

[ Parent ]
So who is hiring?
Give me examples of job ads from here and places that have openings.

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[ Parent ]
Then
can you give me examples of job ads from here? Do you know anyone around here that is hiring?

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[ Parent ]
What industries are you looking at?
Which region of TX are you in? I get the impression that Dell is still doing significant hiring.
[ Parent ]
My boyfriend tried applying to Dell
and other computer places and got no bites. His job placement counselor is trying to find computer jobs for him but after two years has found nothing. I too went through a job placement counselor just to find one lousy little data-entry office job that does not require experience. A 2-year search left us empty-handed.

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[ Parent ]
What are your bf's Linux skills?
I gather Red Hat and advanced Cisco certs are still pretty golden. May have to start with the tech support mess, however.
[ Parent ]
He has Asperger's
a form of autism (as do I), so customer service is out of the question.

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[ Parent ]
I'm a stutterer -- customer service would be difficult for me too
I make it through by writing from home. Been pretty fortunate, as work has dried up for a number of colleagues.

An alternative that I hear works for some newer computer professionals is support of non-profits, churches, etc, as a pathway to SysAdmin work. Don't know if you have an analogue to our FreeGeek.org over there.

[ Parent ]
I read your sig now -- north of Dallas
I know aerospace is hiring generally. If you're not an engineer or factory worker, try something like procurement. One tip -- Weber Aircraft in Gainsville. (though it's a pain to have to join a drinking club just to get a beer....)
[ Parent ]
This comment alone
Was so unthinkably out of line, inappropriate, and cruel that I'd consider banning on just this basis alone. I've seen a lot of crap, but this may be one of the most awful comments ever posted here.

Combined with this user's recent history of disruption, I'm pulling the plug. Goodbye.

[ Parent ]
You mean the
people who just voted the guy back in? Right..........
[ Parent ]
Republicans voting Republican in a Republican year.
If this were 2008...who knows what would have happened.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
In other words
The people who vote in a Republican primary. Thanks for proving my point.
[ Parent ]
In other words
The people who vote in a Republican primary. Thanks for proving my point.
[ Parent ]
In a Texan Republican primary, yes.
I'm not saying he can't win the primary, but he will find himself in quite a pickle during the general.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
In a presidential primary and election. n/t


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Any Republican does
It's an uphill climb to unseat an incumbent President. All of these guys are much more likely to lose than they are to win.

So, IMO, you pick a guy who is very unlike the current guy and hope for the best.

[ Parent ]
But the fallout
if the cuts are especially severe, will likely continue to haunt him in 2012.

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[ Parent ]
If that was true
Why wouldn't it be happening to other governors?

I've been watching the assholes at the NJEA complaining about frontal assaults on education for almost a year now. It hasn't really worked for them.

[ Parent ]
Is Christie considering running for president in 2012?
So far the only governors I've seen on the 2012 shortlist are Perry, Daniels, Jindal, Barbour, and Pawlenty.

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[ Parent ]
Nope
He explicitly said so.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
It may play well with the base.
But to think it will play well with the general electorate in 2012 is foolhardy. Who knows what that electorate will look like in 2012, and what will happen between now and then? The unemployment rate may go down; it may go up. Obama may rebound in popularity or continue to slide enough so that even Palin could beat him. (Or he may decide not to run for reelection.) There may be a major natural disaster or terror attack that could help or hurt Obama. In early 1991 Bush Sr. had 90% approval ratings and his potential Democratic challengers in 1992 were called "the Smurfs". And at about this time in 1994 it was thought that Clinton would not win a second term.

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[ Parent ]
Hey
I'd gladly welcome a Rick Perry candidacy, especially since he and his fellow Republicans in the legislature now bear full responsibility for closing the state's $25 billion gap in the budget and will have to take responsibility for all the service and education cuts that will almost inevitably come. He also can't exactly get away with chickening out of debates like he did this year. I'd love to see him try to dodge debates with Obama.

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[ Parent ]
That really isn't difficult
Christie, Jindal, Daniels, and others have had reasonable success cutting the government education industry complex in very different states.

Besides, Rick Perry debated Tony Sanchez. He proceeded to win by about 20 points.

[ Parent ]
G-d forbid
We cut corporate welfare and prevent college tuitions from spiking.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Yeah
before the skeletons came out of the closet about the rental mansion, the 2007 executive order that mandated all 6th-grade girls receive HPV vaccinations, the whole nine yards; and before he and his fellow Republicans had to make tough decisions about the budget the first time in his governorship in 2003. He was willing to debate in 2002 and 2006 but not 2010. Hmmm, I wonder why...

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[ Parent ]
Me too
It must have to do with the fact that he was winning.
[ Parent ]
Or the fact
that he is a coward.  Every major newspaper of all political leans in TX called for him to debate, but he coasted because he would rather sit on his arse than discuss the consequences of the massive budget shortfall (that will eclipse the CA budget crisis before long).  Yep, he just screeeams of good governance.  They're on their way to becoming a banana republic.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Well
the rest of the country may not be as forgiving.

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[ Parent ]
Really?
Kind of like Lyndon Johnson and Goldwater...or Nixon. Funny how they both went on to win easily.
[ Parent ]
Nixon debated Kennedy.
But that was the first major presidential debate.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
was referring to
1964, 1968, 1972.
[ Parent ]
I love an example from this century!


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
You mean the
3 examples of Presidents who didn't debate their opponents?
[ Parent ]
I think you're underestimating
his incredible ability to deny a position he held just a few minutes earlier.

Okay, that's an exaggeration, but he switched his views on a lot of issues and, it seems, barely suffered for it. I wonder if he needs to do anything else but say his support was a mistake and now he supports some traditional Republican plan like Health Savings Accounts or something similar. And then he could blame health care reform for all sorts of problems that have come up, no matter how baseless the claim. Indeed, I'd say it stands a better chance of sinking him in the primary rather than it sinking him in the general.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
He could say he made a mistake, but...
Romney already has a "flip flop" problem.  Abortion, gays in the military and then to claim the MassCare program he touted as something he was proud of?

Romney is slick - but I think backtracking on this is a bridge too far.

But yeah - he has much less of a chance of successfully navigating a primary contest than defeating Obama.

[ Parent ]
Correction
Romney flipped generally on "gay rights" - and not specifically on gays in the military.  That's what happenes when you have the news on in the background, talking about gays in the military while I'm typing on the computer.
[ Parent ]
I disagree.
I think it's easier to backtrack this because he can admit that while he supported it at one time and still supports the ideas of reform (i.e. lowering costs and expanding access), he realizes his previous support was misguided and now supports something else--namely, whatever Republicans are claiming to support at the time. It's less of a black and white thing than a lot of other issues, or so I think.

As for this sentence, "But yeah - he has much less of a chance of successfully navigating a primary contest than defeating Obama," I disagree. If you were responding to me, what I meant was that if Romney can get past a primary where his association with his health care reform will be far worse than it will be in a general election, he'll have an easier time of dealing with it against Obama, because he can still go against his past support for the specific reforms in Massachusetts without going against reform in general.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Super Tuesday was 2/5/08.


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
AdamNYS is correct on this, RomneyCare is the death of Romney in 2012......
You know, even without RomneyCare, I'd be skeptical of Romney's chances in 2012.

People, even many political reporters, don't seem to remember how astonishing a fall Romney took in 2008.  He was the runaway frontrunner in Iowa and NH and the slight frontrunner nationally as late as Thanksigiving 2007, and he ran a textbook perfect campaign all the way through.  He had money, and he perfectly executed all the mechanics of Presidential campaigning.  And for all that, the voters just said "meh.  Next."

Too much I think is made of Romney being Mormon, but what really hurt him was his public image of being a flip-flopper and a phony when it came to ideology and issues.

And RomneyCare is going to play right into that in the biggest way possible.  He's been trying to talk his way out of it when it comes up, by distinguishing from the federal law, but that doesn't fly logically or politically.

The only way Romney wins the nomination is if the field is severely divided not just early, but well into the spring.  And while that's possible if there isn't a candidate or two who catch fire, more likely a couple people run great campaigns and draw a broad base of GOP support.  Even in 2008, when it was at least as wide open as 2012, the race shrank effectively to a 3-person field by Super Tuesday, with only McCain, Romney, and Huckabee able to win states.  I think we'll see no more than 3 people surviving late the next time, too, and Romney needs more long-term contenders than that to squeak through.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I agree that Romney needs a crowded, religious right-heavy field to have a shot...
His ceiling in Iowa is probably around 35%, meaning, in order to stage a plurality win there, he likely needs all of the righties - Palin, Huckabee, Santorum, maybe even Thune - to jump in and split the right, in addition to needing the other moderates - Christie, Pawlenty, Daniels, even Giuliani, Brown - to pass on a run or not contest Iowa at all. If he managed to win Iowa, I suspect he'd basically win the nomination on the spot...that is, unless all but one of the religious right candidates dropped out, leaving that base to coalesce around an anti-Romney candidate in South Carolina.

As far as New Hampshire, it loves its center-right GOP-ers, no? After all, McCain struck gold there twice, and it doesn't strike me as favorable territory for any of the other candidates (it's not a friendly state at all to religious right candidates). For Huck and Palin, they've probably got ceilings around 15-20% there.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Romney's big problem
South Carolina.

By the time Iowa is over, it seems like either Palin or Huck will emerge as the social conservative candidate, while Romney will likely take NH and NV emerging as the establishment pick. McCain won SC in 2008 by only 15,000 votes by shoring up the military vote and benefitting from the social conservatives being split between Huck and Fred Thompson. Romney came in a pitiful fourth place.

Does anything think Romney has a shot in SC against Palin or Huck, or in any other Southern primaries?

23, dude, gay, IL-13

[ Parent ]
I doubt Romney will be the establishment candidate because...
...as I commented elsewhere in this subthread, I expect a current officeholder to rise up and be a serious contender for that category.  I forgot in my other comment to include Pawlenty, which says something about how hard it's been for him to get oxygen in spite of running nonstop for President already for a year now!  He won't be a "current" officeholder come 2012, but as a very recent two-term Governor he'll be in the same category.

The real question is whether the GOP can find a nominee who has experienced electoral victory where winning isn't so easy for a Republican, where conservatives are too few to get you elected.  Pawlenty and Romney have pulled that off, and one can make a lesser argument for Thune since he had to beat an incumbent Democrat in a razor-tight race, or Daniels since Indiana is conservative and yet elects plenty of Democrats, and some more liberal than those from Arkansas, to high office.  But people like Palin, Gingrich, Barbour, and Huckabee (AR is very conservative even though Dems do well there) know nothing of courting voters who don't share their conservative politics.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Sounds like excellent arguments for
Chris Christie
Jodi Rell
Bob McDonnell
Rob Portman

I am so glad that Chris Dudley lost -- otherwise, I suspect he'd be touted by the chattering class now as the next (moldable, in a "Manchurian" way) Ronald Reagan.

[ Parent ]
I realize that most of who I suggest are "one-termers"
but with the Palinization of the R party, I suspect the establishment may see someone with less time in office as a necessity.
[ Parent ]
Pawlenty
He's pretty generic R. Reminds me of John Kerry, and at best loses by a similar margin.

Christie will be great in 2016.

[ Parent ]
Forget Christie and Rell......
Christie very clearly says he's not running, and Rell is pro-choice which is fatal.  Plus Rell is a nobody.

Portman, I don't see it.

McDonnell is touted, he's got the best political skills of anyone with his ideological posture.  It's tough to straddle the fence of genuine appeal to the hard right and reasonable popularity with nonpartisan swing voters, but he does it well.

But frankly I don't think any of these people want to risk their electoral future on a dicey challenge to Obama.

That's the GOP conundrum:  they need a strong and popular elected official, but no current elected official wants to risk what they have against mighty (and yes, he still is mighty) Obama.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I don't think winning Iowa would be enough for Romney, especially since...
...Iowa hasn't been any kind of kingmaker on the Republican side......really, ever.

RomneyCare makes him controversial enough heading into 2012 that a right-winger will rise up at some point even after Iowa.  Romney has too many liabilities to wrap up anything early, even with an early win or two.

What's truly strange on the Republican side right now is that all the people who get polled the most are people who are not in any public office right now, and all but Palin have been out of office for many years.  And Palin and Romney each won only ONE major election in their entire lives.

I think at least one current officeholder will rise into top contention heading into Iowa.  It's a particularly weak field to have no one seriously contesting a major party Presidential nomination who hasn't been in any high office for so long.  So either Thune, Barbour, or Daniels will be a top contender I think.  At least one of those three certainly will run.  Jindal won't, the logistics are just too tough with having to get reelected in November 2011 and then enter the Iowa Caucuses that happen a month after the start of his 2nd gubernatorial term.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
You're right
Iowa is more of a king-maker for Democrats (big exception is 1992).

South Carolina is the king-maker for Republicans.

23, dude, gay, IL-13

[ Parent ]
That's just R framing of one of the HCR provisions
All taxes are a form of dictatorship to some.
[ Parent ]
Actually
by choosing to live in the U.S. one chooses to pay U.S. taxes. No one is forcing these people to stay here. They can go be citizens of whatever tax-free land suits their fancy.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Monaco?
Although it's as expensive as hell to live there.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Or Leichtenstein
Andorra, San Marino, Cayman Islands, Bermuda, whatever.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Somalia is dirt cheap and a libertarian paradise. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
I agree
I think he will be killed on that issue in the early primaries, and drop out and endorse Daniels, T-Paw, or Thune, possibly before SC or FL.  
[ Parent ]
Read my link
It isn't about her favorability amongst the GOP, it is about a hypothetical primary match-up.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I'm pleased to hear...
Gov. O'Malley taking over at DGA. He probably won't have a lot to do, but he's a smart guy with a lot of solid executive experience, and he's one of my dark-horse picks for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2016.

Curious about what will happen in that Senate race in Maine, which is shaping up to start early and get crazy. I see some real potential for a four-way race between Sen. Snowe, Mr. Tea, Eliot Cutler, and Rep. Michaud. That would be a barn-burner.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

I don't see
Eliot Cutler running as an indie with Michaud as the Dem candidate.  Cutler is a Dem who ran as an indie because he detests Augusta politicians like Libby Mitchell and Maine has a history of electing indie governors.

If Michaud is running, Cutler will stay out since they are far closer in ideologies than with Mitchell.

If Pingree were to run (hypothetically because she said "no" today), Cutler would be tempted to go in.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
True
Shawn Moody, though, is a possibility. He only got 5% in the gubernatorial race this year, but that was enough for Gov.-elect LePage - so I'm a bit pissed at him.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
IDK.
Maybe it's just me but I don't think he'd want to be a Senator. He seems more of an executive type. Perhaps (I'm contradicting what I just said) he can run for Michaud's seat if he runs. That's a nice consolation prize.    

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
But:
Is Michaud really running for Senate?

I haven't heard anything about it from his camp or anyone who follows him closely.

[ Parent ]
He hasn't said
but he'd be prime for it.  However, they should wait to see what a primary challenger polls against Snowe.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I suspect the best thing O'Malley
has going for him is his age. He's only 47 now but already has the sort of experience that people his age only start to accumulate. The limit for when he might be too old isn't for a long, long time.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I never did say post-election
It's too bad Jsmith was banned because he probably has a giant "I told you so" for all of us concerning what happened in the South.  That bastard.
Was Jsmith a concern troll?
Why was he banned?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
He kept saying
all southern Democrats outside black-majority districts would be doomed without providing evidence to back up his claim.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
hahaha
Strangely prophetic.

I think there are about 2 or 3 left, though.

[ Parent ]
A few more than that, I believe.
OK counts as the south, too, I believe.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Here's the list of the ones I know.
Boren (OK)
Barrow (GA)
Bishop? (GA)
Ross (AR)
McIntyre (NC)
Kissell (NC)
Shuler (NC)
Chandler (KY if that counts)

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Is OK
The South?  
[ Parent ]
Is OK
The South?  
[ Parent ]
I suppose.
They are south of the western edge of the Mason-Dixon line.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
And Eastern Oklahoma
has long been referred to as "Little Dixie".

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
It is below 36' 30"
the Missouri compromise line for western expansion of slave states back in 1820.  
[ Parent ]
I raise you a Mike Ross and a John Barrow
And some North Carolina folk and Ben Chandler IF they count . . .

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
And a Sanford Bishop, kinda, maybe . . .


26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
Don't forget
Dan Boren.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I
am a pretty vanilla guy but to put it bluntly I remember him as being a dick. I don't think I was registered but I lurked for a while and he was very rude and if you disagreed with him on anything you where a DINO troll. His personality was just nasty. When I found this place I went through a bunch of old pages and remember him cheerleading his support of Hoffman in NY-23, because Owens wasn't pure enough. Also he was very focused on constantly discussing policy. Had the problem that Ryan had in terms of spending too much time on policy, but at least Ryan also contributed horse race talk as well. And I seem to remember a lot of anti Obama FDL purism as well.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I had hopes for him for a while
He was a self-declared statistician from the Research Triangle area -- but never provided any statistics, as much as I prodded him.
[ Parent ]
Actually, I think he said he supported Hoffman
because he thought it would cause unelectable teabaggers to sprout up all over the country and save the Democrats. Not like that's any better, or that teabaggers are actually unelectable (nevermind how if Hoffman could beat Owens, that itself debunks teabaggers being unelectable).

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I remember a commenter holding that position, but didn't remember it was jsmith......
I didn't remember who it was, but I remember being very annoyed that anyone on the left would cheerlead for a Democrat to lose to a right-winger.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Antoine Thompson
This editorial is pretty damning, assuming it's all true.
Do you know if Grisanti
supports gay marriage? Can't find it on his site.

Otherwise, assuming whatever clowns beat Craig Johnson and Brian Foley are anti-gay, we've barely budged since last time. We were down 38-24, gained 4 votes (Peralta, Gianaris, Avella, Carlucci) and lost either 2 or 3. So we're still 6-7 votes away. Are we basically screwed here as long as the pro-GOP gerrymander survives?  

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
Presumably...
Tim Kennedy who knocked off Bill Stachowski did get the endorsement of a lot of LGBT groups in the 58th, so that may be +1; Joe Addabbo of Queens also claimed he supported marriage equality, so...maybe, just maybe, we're up to 27... The optimist in me says maybe a few suburban Republicans would vote yes like there were rumors of last time, if the momentum is there.

But I think the real question is, what incentive does Dean Skelos have to even put the issue up for a vote as long as he controls the state senate?

The NY GOP will try to gerrymander as it might, but I don't think it's possible for them to pack all of Buffalo into one seat, so we'll have to knock of Grisanti then with some help upticket.  Of course, there is another obnoxious Dem-turned-GOPer, Joe Robach of Rochester, who frustratingly holds the 65% Obama 56th, so it may not be that easy. We'll also have to reclaim something on Long Island, most likely, or hope Greg Ball makes such an ass of himself that he'll lose the Westchester/Putnam-based 40th.

[ Parent ]
Forgot about Kennedy.
I remember hearing he's pro-marriage so that's another vote closer. I don't trust Addabbo ever since he voted against it last time.

I agree with your question about Skelos but I believe he did say he'd put it up for a vote, so who knows. I also have no idea what will happen to Grisanti's district--assuming the Republicans draw the map, will they try to shore up Grisanti at the possible expense of Dale Volker's successor? Either way, hopefully Obama coattails will help us there.

Re: LI, Brian Foley's seat might be a promising target...it seems to flip wildly, as Foley crushed Caesar Trunzo but then was crushed in turn by Lee Zeldin. Who knows what happens in redistricting, though. On the other hand, I'd imagine Craig Johnson's district can't really get more Republican without endangering a nearby R incumbent.

I can totally see Greg Ball making an ass of himself and hopefully we can target that seat.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
I wonder if
Foley would be interested in running for something local in Suffolk County, like County Executive. Is Levy now beatable since he's a Republican?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
The Gerrymander can be done
You can make Grisanti district a lot more GOP by making Kennedy's more Dem. I am sure they will swap a lot of territory with Kennedy's district getting most of Buffalo.

As for LI the easiest way to shore up GOP seats there is to snake one of the Queens seats up into the Democrat parts of Nassau County.

I can also see Addabbo and Padavan's Queens district getting combined somehow to produce 1 strong GOP district in Queens that the GOP could shoot for with a candidate like City Councilman Eric Ulrich.

The GOP could also try to draw an Asian Senate district in Flushing and try to run City Councilman Peter Koo there (although that would be a long shot).

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[ Parent ]
Although it is par for course
for NYS Senators.  

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[ Parent ]
Losses
I was doing some informal calculations and found that Democratic incumbents in the Midwest lost by an average of 8ish points. Democrats in the South lost by an average of 9 points, but subtract Alan Grayson, Suzanne Kosmas, and the entire state of Florida, incumbents did better in the South than the Midwest.

But not well enough in either places. Incidentally, I think the biggest margins of loss may have been in the Mountain West. (but someone correct me if i'm wrong) (AZ-01, CO-04, AZ-05, TX-17, TX-23, ID-01 and so on)

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

2012 Fundraising (yes!)
Andrea Nuciforo, who is challenging John Olver in the Democratic primary in MA-01, has $100,000 on hand to Olver's $76,000. (according to the FEC) Olver has filed for reelection already.

Who do you think will be the Democrat who is forced into retirement as MA loses a district?

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

What's she challenging him for?
Is it to do with the issue of reproductive rights?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Olver?
No, Olver's decidedly a pro-choice Pioneer Valley liberal (who taught at Amherst) and, who, parenthetically, ought to have Northampton put into his district, even on social issues.  Now, if it was Neal, it might have been that issue, but it still would be stupid.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
Rep. Lynch
Although it's possible he runs for Senate and Joseph Kennedy III runs for his seat.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Actually:
Nuciforo is a guy. He's been wanting to challenge Olver for the last two years, since the 2008 cycle ended.

I'm not too well-versed in Western Mass politics but I heard that John Olver is one of the least-known members of Congress and doesn't like being seen in public much. That a fact?

[ Parent ]
So Olver is like Solomon Ortiz
Just a potted plant in Congress.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Yes:
Basically. Olver won a special election in the summer of 1991 to replace Silvio Conte, the longtime GOP congressman who had represented the 1st district for 32 years.

Olver really is not well-known, either for his legislative or fundraising prowess. I grew up across the state line, in Vermont, and you hardly ever saw his name in the southern region's newspapers.

[ Parent ]
Musical Chairs
I don't think anyone's going to get forced out per se.

Mike Capuano (8th) supposedly wants a shot at Scott Brown. MA-08 as it now exists is a minority-majority (white plurality) seat..though I don't think it was one when it was initially created. No one seems to know how much of a problem it would be to break up this population so that Massachusetts did not have any such district after redistricting.  If this district bit the dust, Markey and Lynch would probably get most of it.

Stephen Lynch (9th) is also considering a Senate run. (His best shot would be a crowded field with mostly liberal candidates that allows him to squeak by.) Keating, Frank, and Capuano or his successor would get pieces of it. Everyone else would get pulled east and/or closer to Boston.

And if neither of those happens...

John Tierney (6th) had a family scandal that broke late in the campaign. If he had had a credible challenger he might have lost. He might be the one asked to walk away...but the map would be an issue since the North Shore, especially the northern part, is not territory that would fit into anyone else's district easily.

Barney Frank (4th) has been around for a while, is no spring chicken, and may not have the stomach for another campaign fight and/or life in the minority. He won't be the one with the short straw, but he may volunteer to walk away.

John Olver (1st) is relatively old and doesn't do much, but he has a seat on Appropriations. Western Mass is too small for two whole districts...but too big for just one. Eliminating his seat would probably send the Worcester-based 3rd to the Berkshires. He might walk, but I don't think he's bring forced out.

Bill Keating (10th) is brand new but has a bunch of territory that no one else currently in the delegation could really plausibly represent.

Niki Tsongas (5th) is probably the weakest member of the delegation but she's the only woman, and has a bunch of turf nobody else would want.

Richard Neal (2nd) has been in Congress a long time but isn't that old and would likely chair Ways and Means if Dems get the majority back. Eliminating his seat would probably also send the Worcester-based 3rd to the Berkshires. I think he stays.

Jim McGovern (3rd) is ranking Dem on Rules whenever 80-something Louise Slaughter walks. It'd also be awkward for anyone else to try to absorb Worcester into their district, except maybe Neal. But I think he stays unless he unexpectedly jumps into the Senate contest.

Ed Markey (7th) has the district that seems easiest to eliminate if you're trying to draw maps. But everyone seems to love him, and he's high on Energy/Commerce. I don't think he walks and he's not going to be shut out.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
That's the best analysis I've seen.
What would make everyone's life easier (except Scott Brown's) would be Markey running for Senate. The Dems would get a top-flight recruit, and the 7th could easily be split up among all the remaining districts. Right now, Capuano is the most likely Senate candidate so his district is the one that will probably go, but that would reduce Boston to just one district, and the Beacon Hill machine is not going to want the city to have less representation in Congress than Western MA.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Into the Berkshires is an exaggeration in both cases
More like into the eastern suburbs of Springfield.  The four Western Mass Counties (Berkshire, Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden) are only slightly too big for their own district.  Nibbling on the edges is enough.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
Not If They're Smart
A Worcester-based district that fills itself out with Springfield's eastern suburbs is a potentially scary proposition for Democrats in a bad cycle or an open-seat situation.

Towns like East Longmeadow and Wilbraham and Palmer won't know Jim McGovern and are not predisposed to like him much. The various bucolic towns of "Baja Vermont" are indeed even further away....but they'd like him if they got to know him.    


36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
They could add Franklin County
Or some of the 5 colleges towns (Northampton, Amherst, etc.).  Adding the Berkshire would be geographically difficult and unnecessary since there are plenty of solidly liberal areas that are much closer to Worcester.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
Will Delbene be back in 2012?
She seemed like a great candidate. Whether or not it's because the district is trending away from the Republicans, she performed admirably, winning the same level of support that Burner received in 2008. And I liked how someone whose background is in corporate America came out for a public option. If she ever ends up in Congress, she'd make a good spokeswoman for it, if only to go against the notion that the only people who want a public option are dirty hippies and commies.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
I agree

I take not the new appointment as something negative. I think she can run again and I hope she defeat D Reichert.
[ Parent ]
MA-Sen: Meehan Planning a Run?
He just took himself out of the running for President of UMass
http://www.lowellsun.com/break...
He'd be good.
He still has almost $5 mill in his federal account so he could start a campaign quickly.

Yo, Bay Staters, is Meehan well-liked over there or is he disliked?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
He publicly said he was not running for Senate a few weeks ago
I'm not sure how popular he is--I think he's pretty low profile. My guess is that he's still popular in his district (north Middlesex County) and most of the rest of the state doesn't really know him.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
He
may not be running but it's not like a pol has never taken back such a statement before, happens all the time. I seem to remember a certain Gov of ND saying repeatedly he wasn't running for Senate this year. I think Meehan is probably the best candidate we could put forward but that's just me.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Id agree
That would eliminate the biggest advantage Brown has: His $7 million headstart.  
[ Parent ]
It says in that link
that he is happy to keep running UMass Lowell.  Definitely not hinting at running, but he still can.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Meehan always teases....
...and has been thretening to run for this office or that office for years.  We'll see if he actually steps up for a change.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...
[ Parent ]
He has to do something
with his federal account.  Either run for Senate or give it to the party and/or to charity.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
sam young wins VT house seat by 3 votes
http://caledonianrecord.com/ma...

He was a dem who lost to another dem (possibly a P, not sure) not much of a story yet, will provide a better link later.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

Wait....
a Dem beating a Dem in the general election race?  WTH?  Is this a special election or does VT have free-for-all state legislature electiosn?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
To explain:
As noted in an earlier post, I'm from VT and yes, legislative elections work a little differently than many other states.

In a 2-member district (example: my home, Bennington 2-2), the top two vote-getters, regardless of party affiliation, are the ones that are going to be sent to Montpelier. This year, there were four candidates running. The top two people who got the most votes, the incumbents, (1 Dem, 1 GOP) got reelected. So that's basically how it works.

[ Parent ]
i think they should change this personally.
there are lots of ways to do so as well.  make all of the seats individual districts with FPTP, make the legs nonpartisan, keep the rules the same, but change it so that voters can only vote for ONE candidate, instead of as many as six for senate in my home of chittenden county.  there are many ways to experiment with this, but i think the current system needs to be changed.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
It:
Makes for a complicated and confusing process, doesn't it doug_tuttle?

I remember one year, in my hometown of Bennington, there were three candidates running for town clerk (obviously you could vote for no more than one person); however, people wanted to know what party said candidates were members of, resulting in some dismay and confusion.

[ Parent ]
you have any ideas?
personally i'd like to see what would happen if everything stayed the same except you could only vote for one candidate.  on my state senate ballot, there'd still be 6-14+ candidates, but instead of voting for six, i could only vote for one, so i'd have to choose carefully.  would one well known candidate win 40+%, with the remaining 5 getting elected with only 5% or so of the vote?  would 3rd parties be able to get elected, only needing around 5% or so to win?  would republicans ban together and support only one, or would they risk their vote by supporting a candidate who isn't diane snelling (the only republican who can win in CC apparently)?  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
NJ Assembly is the same way...
Plus a lot of County Committees, City Councils, etc...it's more common than you might first think
[ Parent ]
Maryland Too
There are 47 State Senate districts, and three times that many (131) Delegates.

In most of the state, including all of Baltimore City, Montgomery County, and every Prince George's district but one, the Senate districts are also three-member districts for Delegate. I think the stated reason for this is to prevent district in urban districts from becoming too small in area, but I'd prefer that each small cluster of neighborhoods in Baltimore or MoCo had their own representative accountable to them.

In other parts of the state, there are Senate districts divided into two pieces; one two-member part and one single-member part. The two stated reasons for this are so that each county in districts that spread across different counties can have a Delegate (e.g. the 5th is about two-thirds Carroll County and about one-third Baltimore County, and they're split like that) or when a single city is about two-thirds (specifically, Frederick) or one-third of the electorate the district is divided along those lines.

In still other parts, generally the most rural areas, it's three single-member districts. Democrats draw the lines usually, so what you get there is generally Democrats trying to work one Democrat out of an otherwise Republican area.

Despite the fact that it helps Democrats pad their numbers in the House of Delegates, this is a ridiculous system.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
Really
most smaller states could merge the houses of their legislatures and/or reduce their size. Does Vermont really need 180 people in their legislature?
[ Parent ]
The Maryland House works the same way, except it's Top 3 in each district, and...
...state Senate districts and Delegate districts are the same.  As in, the same boundaries.  Each district has one state Senator and 3 Delegates.  The primary sorts out who are each party's 3 Delegate nominees in a given district, and then for the general each party has up to 3 nominees on the ballot.  The top 3 vote-getters regardless of party are elected.  I've never lived in Maryland, but I've voted in plenty of elections elsewhere where the ballot says "vote for two" or "vote for three" or whatnot.  It's not that hard, you do have to pause to make sure you read the instructions and follow them correctly, but I don't know that anyone is truly confused except maybe the first time or two voting in a given state or locality.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Not In The Whole State...
....I wrote about this above.

Though most of the more populated parts of Maryland do work exactly the way you describe it.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
Thanks, I had missed your other comment and didn't know that about rural areas. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
I Was Curious Enough To Look It Up
Senate districts that use one district, three members:
6 (Baltimore County, all Dems)
7 (Baltimore County, all GOP)
8 (Baltimore County, 2-1 GOP split with new elections)
10-11 (Baltimore County, all Dems)
13 (Howard County, all Dems)
14-20, 39 (Montgomery County, all Dems, every one of 'em)
21 (Prince George's/Anne Arundel, all Dems)
22 (Prince George's County, all Dems)
24-26, 47 (Prince George's, all Dems)
28 (Charles County, all Dems)
30 (Anne Arundel, 2-1 GOP split w/ new elections)
31 (Anne Arundel, all GOP)
32 (Anne Arundel, all Dems)
36 (Upper Eastern Shore, all GOP)
40-41, 43-46 (Baltimore City, all Dems)
42 (Baltimore County, 2-1 GOP split)

Two districts:
3: Frederick/Washington - 3A is basically Frederick City (1 Dem, 1 GOP as of recent elections), 3B rural areas (1 GOP)
4: Frederick/Carroll - 4A is 2 seats in Frederick County, 4B is Carroll (all 3 GOP)
5: Carroll/Baltimore - 5A is 2 seats in Carroll County, 5B is in Baltimore County (all 3 GOP)
12: Howard/Baltimore - 12A is mostly in Baltimore County (both Dems), 12B entirely in Howard (one Dem.)
23: Prince George's (Bowie area) - 23A is two seats, 23B one, all are Dems, and I have no idea why this is split.
27: Prince George's/Calvert - 27A is mostly in PG (both Dems), 27B is entirely in Calvert (GOP takeover)
33: Anne Arundel - 33A is two seats, 33B is one, all are GOP. I think 33B was designed as a GOP vote sink but failed.  
34: Cecil/Harford - 34A is mostly in Harford (one of each, GOP just won one), 34B entirely in Cecil (1 Dem)
35: Harford - 35B is one seat in Bel Air, 35A is northern Harford (all 3 GOP)
37: Middle Eastern Shore - 37A strings together areas of Easton/Cambridge/Salisbury with a sizable minority population (1 Dem), 37B is the rest (2 GOP)
38: Lower Eastern Shore - 38A is mostly Somerset County with some Wicomico (1 GOP), 38B is mostly Worcester County with some Wicomico (1 Dem, 1 GOP)

Three single-member districts:
1: Far Western Maryland - 1A is mostly Garrett (GOP), 1B is in Allegany and includes part of Cumberland (Dem), 1C is part of Cumberland and eastern Allegany and western Washington (GOP)
2: Washington County - 2A is north and west of Hagerstown (GOP), 2B is south and east of Hagerstown (GOP), 2C is essentially Hagerstown (Dem) itself.  
29: Southern Maryland - 29A is mostly in Charles (Dem), 29B is entirely in St. Mary's (Dem), 29C is mostly in Calvert (GOP).

(There were more 2-1 splits than I thought when I started typing that. I had no clue what I was getting myself into.)  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
Oops....Skipped One
District 9 is a 2-1 split. 9A is two seats in Howard County, 9B a single seat in Carroll County. All GOP.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03
[ Parent ]
On his campaign website
it has a PDF of his campaign brochure that states that he supports expanding high speed internet "throughout the Kingdom."  What's that about. O_o?  Kingdom?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
He's:
Referring to the "Northeast Kingdom," the 3-county region in northeastern Vermont that consists of Caledonia, Orleans, and Essex Counties.

The Northeast Kingdom has, for many years, been the most conservative part of the state because it's so remote and isolated from other parts of VT. If you go up there (and I have plenty of times), you will swear that there are more cows than people. It's really that old-school. But seriously, Dems are few and far-between there, and if they are strong in their respective towns, they tend to be more conservative than the national party.

[ Parent ]
Oh, thank you.
I know nothing about VT geography.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
every time i hear "i know nothing"
i think of the robot chicken sketch where herbie the elf tries a bunch of jobs other than being an elf.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
I've been through there once, going to Quebec
What a spectacularly beautiful area it is. Of course, all of Vermont is scenic, but that part in particular really stands out in my mind.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
MassGOP:
Yes, it is a very beautiful area. I love going through the Kingdom, and many magazines that have articles on VT always feature the Kingdom quite prominently. The late Republican Senator George Aiken coined the term "Northeast Kingdom" in 1939 while he was still governor.

Although, I am partial to Chittenden County and Burlington, since I went to college there and loved every minute of it. However, I'd discourage you from visiting Bennington County, as there's not much to do unless you're a skier (Bromley and Stratton come to mind).

[ Parent ]
Sounds lovely.
I once went to VT to go skiing.  Very, very peaceful. ^_^

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I've never been to Burlington
I've been to central Vermont  many times to ski at Killington and Okemo, and that's really nice too. Burlington and Lake Champlain are certainly on the to-see list though.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
you might like burlington
depending on your thoughts about cities.  from the republicans i've met here, there seem to be two republican responses to burlington:

1.  it's the only place in vermont worth doing anything, if only there weren't so many hippies (young reps).

2.  I hate this place and all the lazy welfare taking socialist pot smoking freaks.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Also the area of Vermont
where Obama had the most drastic improvement over Kerry.  
[ Parent ]
Like from
losing it to winning it?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
kerry lost the northeat kingdom
it's the most republican area in the state.  obama won it by good margins, although much less than he did statewide.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Actually Kerry
won the northeast Kingdom, by a healthy margin. Obama just took over 60% there, compared to Kerry's 54 or so percent.  
[ Parent ]
Bush won it in 2000, Kerry in 2004
Bush took all three counties in 2000 and won the Kingdom 49-43, a margin of about 1650 votes. Kerry looks like he won it by about 50-48, or 700 votes. Obama won handily, by a margin of greater than 3:2 and several thousand votes.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
By the way
I've heard about the VT Progressive Party.  What distinguishes them from the VT Dem Party and why do they show such surprising strength in VT (i.e. in this session of the legislature, they have two members in the Senate and six in the House) as a third party?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
a few reasons
one, they have an infrastructure.  ever since bernie sanders was elected mayor of burlington in 1980 and REALLY started the Progressives in vermont, they've always had strong voters in burlington, and other parts of the state, as well as fund raising sources.  two, 37% of the electorate in 2010 was liberal, 37%.  that gives them a little wiggle room to run with, as opposed to other states.  it's somewhat similar to the occasional libertarian or reform party member elected in Montana, or Idaho.  three, to be a major party they have to get at least 5% statewide in a race.  with many dems running unopposed, or with token R opposition, they can usually get at least that in one race, keeping their major party status.  as for what distinguishes them politically, i suppose it's like the dems are the moderate to liberal and progs are liberal to (real) socialist.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Mike Haridopolos
I would hope he was the candidate as hes not exactly the brightest blub in the state. I don't see him running well statewide at all.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
KY-Gov: Is this news for real?
Is the Democratic governor of Kentucky really going to use taxpayer incentives for a Creationist theme park?  

How can we support him if this is true?

Stunning to me really, and as a refresher he was the progressive favorite in the 2007 Dem primary over...
...Bruce Lunsford.  Lunsford's public image is that he's a DLC Democrat, and liberals hated him in 2007.  Beshear was the annointed "real" Democrat, and won the primary to the cheers of DailyKos legions (myself included).  Of course Lunsford was in everyone's good graces when he challenged McConnell in 2008, since federal races are harder for us in conservative states.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
The DailyKos favs doesn't win gubernatorial elections in Kentucky))
It's too conservative for that..
[ Parent ]
The point is he was a "fav" of the Daily Kos community.
He most certainly won't be after this.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
From time to time, DK favors less liberal candidates
where such have a more realistic chance to win.

people like Travis Childers even got support from purer places like OpenLeft. There was also the kerfuffle about Kos' presumed endorsement of Scozzafava over Owens in NY-23. Even though it might be argued that she was more liberal than Owens on some issues, Scozzafava was certainly no liberal hero.

Sometimes, there are loud people on DK who favor primarying anyone to the right of Fidel Castro. While it makes sense to complain about them, it's too much to characterize DK by their most left-wing posters.

[ Parent ]
May be
I know very good people writing on DK. May be i am somewhat pedjudiced too - because it was exactly the "left-wing posters" who quarreld and attscked me there))))
[ Parent ]
"prejudiced" - sorry for typo

[ Parent ]
The left will go nuts
and this being KY, his poll numbers wll go up 10 points.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
Just like
Gene Taylor's went up 10 points after he said he wasn't voting for Pelosi and didn't vote for Obama.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Kentucky
is in the Bible belt so this should play well. (Questioning your opponent's faith luckily doesn't play well here.) Gene Taylor telling the people of his district that he won't vote for Pelosi and he didn't vote Obama for was just a desperate move in my opinion. In fact I think Taylor lost some ground with independents when he said he didn't vote for Obama because it just showed him to be a desperate politician trying to keep his job.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Eh
this kind of strikes me the same way. Maybe not as bad as Gene Taylor but still "Hey guys look, I'm SO conservative!" especially now that people in Kentucky will be slowly turning their eyes to the upcoming election.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
MO-Sen: Steelman's in
Smart move by her, she let Blunt have pole position last time and...
...doesn't want to let Talent have it this time.

Missouri is always a close call at best for us in Senate races, but 2012 will be very different from 2010, and McCaskill should breathe a sigh of relief she was out of cycle for the hostile wave.  I'm willing to bet already that Dems will look pretty good come 2012, and people like McCaskill will win and perhaps even comfortably.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
But aren't McCaskill's ratings in the toilet?
I know PPP has found her among the most unpopular U.S. Senators. I think it'll be a single-digit race for both McCaskill and Obama, but, my suspicion is, unless Obama again contests Missouri, Indies will break away from the Dems here.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
if talent runs and gets the no,d this will look like
NH-2008 redux, only with dems on the wrong side, unless obama hits the electoral sweet spot where indies break for the dems, but dem base voters don't feel alienated/confident enough to stay home.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Why?
So long as Obama recovers, he's not going to lose Missouri by anything more than a couple of points, and honestly, Talent really isn't that strong of a candidate.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
talent won't need to be strong
hell just need to have the indies be indifferent or worse to obama.  the party breakdown in 2008 was D 40%, Rs 34% and indies 26% yet obama still lost (narrowly ofc).  Dems need to win indies and drive turnout.  in a strong obama re-election, the senate election will most likely be localized and shell have to work her fannie off to win indies.  in a loss for obama, indies will almost certainly turn on her too and shes almost certainly finished.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
And again, why?
Your logic assumes that McCaskill doesn't benefit from a strong Obama performance but is hurt by a weak Obama performance, but that makes no sense unless there is some overriding local issue which dominates the election, but that cuts both ways, there's no reason to believe that even if Obama isn't doing well that there won't be an overriding local issue hurting Talent.

Really, it's hard to imagine a scenario where Obama wins Missouri and McCaskill doesn't (especially given her approvals are better than Obama's).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I agree.
I mean, really, who is voting for Obama but for the Republican senate candidate, unless it's an absolute blow out where Obama wins the state by 10 points? It's much more likely, I think, that there are small but significant numbers of voters--just a few thousand, but that may be all we need--who decide to vote for the Republican presidential nominee but then McCaskill, particularly in the less populated parts of the state where he's supposed to have so much trouble.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Not really.
They aren't great, but they aren't bad. She's basically even in every sense.

She actually leads Steelman by one point, although 11 percent appear to be undecided. That's not a great spot to be in, but it could be far, far worse, especially considering the beating a lot of Democrats took in Missouri last month.

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Typical Missouri
This year being an anomaly. 43-44 disapprove isn't bad, particularly when indies view her favorably albeit narrowly. 43-52 for Obama isn't bad either all things considered.  
[ Parent ]
Makes me wonder if Talent is uninterested after all
There was no point in recruiting her if Talent is already in the race. I take this as a signal that Talent is having second thoughts, and either considering the governor's race or staying in the private sector.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Maybe
but she did openly defy the establishment and run against Kenny Hulshof in 2008. She would be a fresh face though, sane enough to attract voters, but conservative enough to take up the tea party banner.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
ME-Sen
Is it possible that the mystery candidate is Howie Carr, radio talk show host? He's technically in Boston, but he was born in Maine (Portland, in fact, which fulfills the southern Maine requirement), and he's a big Tea Party guy, having spoken at rallies and he even had LePage on his show back in September. I assume he's also gotten a lot of money over the years from his show, so he would start with significant financial resources.

Here's his wikipedia page, if anyone is interested
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H...

Right now he's my guess, unless someone here can give me a compelling reason why it couldn't be him.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

Oh man, I hope that's true
He would get eaten alive.  

A masshole (and a rather obnoxious one at that) who lives in wealthy Boston suburb running for senate in Maine?  If the Maine Republicans have gone sufficiently off the deep end to nominate him, they'd be handing the seat to the Dems on a silver platter.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
They Hate Tourists
Well, they like the money the tourists bring in. But they're not electing one to the Senate. I'll echo your sentiments.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03
[ Parent ]
I imagine he's quite popular
with Maine conservatives, considering that his show airs all over northern New England. And, remember, Maine nominates by convention, so the crazies will dominate. I think he'd probably scare off any other Tea Party spoiler candidate and be favored heavily over Snowe for the nomination.

Crossing my fingers.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
Nomination conventions
where democracy is replaced with mob mentality.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Maine
Has conventions, they do not nominate by convention. Paul LePage was selected in a primary.  
[ Parent ]
Thanks for the correction
n/t

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
Massachusetts works the same way
It has an additional requirement that for statewide races you need to get at least 15% at the convention to make it to the primary ballot.  This is was relevant in the Governors race this year, since Christy Mihos failed to clear this hurdle leaving Charlie Baker uncontested in the GOP primary.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
Very good guess
I think it could be.  
[ Parent ]
SSP Daily Digest: 11/30 | 286 comments

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