Tennessee looks good like this

I don't think Fincher could win the 12th District, even with a good campaign, it includes too much of Shelby County. Tennessee is a state would very much benefit from the Wyoming rule.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

---

by: DrPhillips @ Mon Nov 29, 2010 at 17:18:16 PM UTC

Fincher couldn't win the 12th

But why wouldn't he run in the 10th?

---

by: emilysdad @ Mon Nov 29, 2010 at 17:33:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Congressman-elect Stephen Fincher lives in this map's 10th

So this Tennyoming map would actually make the 10th district more rural (except for Jackson), thus making it friendlier to the singing gospel singer/agri-magnate from Frog Jump(Crockett County).

PS - It's Congressman John Tanner in 8th, but that's no big deal as typos/oversights happen.  

Democrat: TN-8

---

by: wtndem @ Mon Nov 29, 2010 at 17:48:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You could rack and pack

AA voters in  memphis in one district and easily make the map 10-2.  

Fincher would certainly move to the rural seat north of him as 80% of the primary voters in his home district would be from Shelby county.

Would love to see a 9 seat map from you on TN--my home state.  I personally don't think the GOP will split Davidson (other then Belle Meade area now in 7th) and will settle for a  secure 7-2 GOP arrangement.  

---

by: rdelbov @ Mon Nov 29, 2010 at 18:43:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You can...

The problem is, it's illegal packing, because it's possible to create two VRA seats and that's what proportionate representation calls for.

As for Davidson County, it's just too damn populous to be self-contained on a Wyoming Rule map. On a 435-member map, though, absolutely no way.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

---

by: SaoMagnifico @ Mon Nov 29, 2010 at 19:37:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Tennessee

has far fewer AA's then most Southern states.  We are not a VRA state.  We don't have to be prescreened.  Does this matter?  

I don't think TN would be compelled to create two AA congressional seats in Memphis area-under a Wyoming type adoption plan for the same reason South Carolina would not be compelled to.  Just because you can do it does not mean you must do it.

In fact the 55% rule-that many use here-is an estimate or a guess from % of minorities are needed to qualify as a majority/minority seat.  

As it happens TN9 is +60%AA and has a white congressman. One reason I was interested in a 9 seat map for TN is that it would be easy to get TN9 up to 70%AA.  

There was a court ordered redistricting in 1974-just before my time-for congressional seats but I did it one person one vote related.

---

by: rdelbov @ Mon Nov 29, 2010 at 19:57:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Pre-clereance or not, voters could sue over packing

Under this scenario, one seat would be completely within Shelby County, with the remainder of Shelby County in another district, that also had a significant African-American voter influence. Packing the rest of the votes into a heavy GOP district would in fact look very messy and not be appropriate at all.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

---

by: DrPhillips @ Mon Nov 29, 2010 at 20:08:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I wondered about the

affects of VRA on states like TN. I sorta understood that Florida (statewide) & several other states had court issues with majority/minority seats.  I appreciate the clarification.

I did agree as well be it Wyoming or just 9 seats that Davidson county will not be sliced and diced too much.  

As to Fincher I was shocked as to see him do as well as he did.  I really thought Herron had a real chance to win.  Congressman Tanner was all over the district campaigning for Senator Herron.  

A real quick fix for TN8-from the GOP standpoint-is to swap out precincts in Shelby county.  The 8th district part of Shelby county is heavily democratic.  You can attach that portion to TN9 (which it will need for equal population standards) and find republican voters in NE Shelby county.  That moves the district 4% without changing one rural county.

---

by: rdelbov @ Mon Nov 29, 2010 at 20:41:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Tanner campaigning with Herron?

Tanner did not invest any visible campaign time with Herron that I know of, and I live in the district and kept close tabs on what was going on. Herron was never the top tier candidate he was made out to be, as illustrated by his losing his home county, and all but one county in his Senate District. I know Roy Herron personally, nice guy, but a lackluster politician and lousy campaigner outside of a stump speech.

Democrat: TN-8

---

by: wtndem @ Mon Nov 29, 2010 at 21:21:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I am just outside of

TN8 and have to rely on local media for details.  They did this news conference stuff (Tanner and Herron) about the loan that Fincher showed on his FEC report.  It made the local news and paper.  Tanner seemed to imply he was tirelessly working for Herron. Perhaps I should have took that with a grain of salt?  Tanner did some radio ads too that I heard.  

I was shocked when Herron only got 40% in his home county.  Talk about friends and family effect.

Say what you want about Fincher he stomped Herron.  As noted his district will be more GOP come 2012.  Even if he loses his portion of Shelby and goes deeper into Montgomery county his seat will be several % more republican.  Fincher raised a huge amount of local money--that's huge in politics as many of his donors are also voters-(Obestar in MN8 had one local donor in the 3rd qtr of 2010).  He might be from Frog Jump--don't care/don't know but I would put him on a top 10 target list for 2012.  

---

by: rdelbov @ Mon Nov 29, 2010 at 22:27:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

TN-08 is probably the best chance of a takeback of all the TN seats

McCain got just 56% there, which is pretty weak for the state.  Redistricting may raise it to 58%, but its still a traditionally Democratic district where Democrats can still compete.  

---

by: Roldabar @ Mon Nov 29, 2010 at 22:37:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Tanner

Tanner did some perfunctory press releases and fundraisers, but he was not out stumping and beating the bushes to any degree for Herron. I didn't hear any Tanner ads on Jackson radio either...granted I do listen mainly to the non-partisan talk station in Jackson and they might have been running on country stations. All the Herron media I saw and heard was featured just him and/or an off-side voice over.

I concur this is the friendliest TN seat we could win back, but its more a top 50 race...and near the 50 end of the spectrum due to the swing of rural whites solidly into the R column for the foreseeable future. Fincher's greatest threat lies in a Republican primary in a newly drawn district - as now that the Rs have the district more experienced and bigger Republican figures may feel they are better suited for the seat. As far a Democrats go,  State Senator Lowe Finney (Jackson) is the most capable and best situated to go after the seat at some point in the future.

Democrat: TN-8

---

by: wtndem @ Tue Nov 30, 2010 at 00:09:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

You are spot on that Herron was the focus

of his ads and top 50 might be right.  

I see a swap of territory here in Shelby where the 8th when ditch Frasier/Raliegh area (heavily democratic) for Lakeland/Arlington/North Bartlett area.  This will be an exhange of heavily democratic area for heavily GOP area.  The 9th district will need population and Frasier area is heavily AA.

Finney brings to mind Senate redistricting for TN 2012.

Shelby county is certain to lose our 6th seat (we have 5 1/2 now but so far a Shelby guy has always represented it.  We will drop down to 5 seats and I believe we will see a third AA seat created.  

The GOP has several routes they go.  The Somerville seat could go west and pickup Tipton lauderdale  & Dyer county or they could curl Herron's seat around to pick up these counties.  

Finney just slide into re-election and in the past I have heard talk of attaching Henderson county to that seat instead of Carrol or Crockett.  That make the hill for Finney a little higher to climb.  A race for congress might have appeal for him.  In 2012 he can keep his seat if he runs.  

---

by: rdelbov @ Tue Nov 30, 2010 at 01:31:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Totally agree on Finney's Senate Seat

That's what I think they will do to Finney's district as well. Henderson is an ancestral Republican County and would make a 2014 re-election bid tough, esp. if Representative McDaniel (Henderson Co) grabbed the R nomination, as he has always represented Henderson County and used to represent a portion of Madison County (Jackson). I imagine the new TN-27 Senate seat will be retain Madison and Gibson, while adding Henderson -as it is similar to Carroll in population, while Gibson is substantially larger.

Democrat: TN-8

---

by: wtndem @ Tue Nov 30, 2010 at 01:53:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm aware

If it were a VRA state, then two 55%+ black districts probably would be warranted, but that isn't possible. The problem is that just one minority-majority district would be something close to 80% black, and I think most courts would find that to be illegal packing - especially considering it really isn't too hard to draw two minority-majority districts in the same part of the map.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

---

by: SaoMagnifico @ Mon Nov 29, 2010 at 22:01:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Damn Wikipedia

I was sure it said Frog Jump was in Lauderdale County. Sorry about that. Rep.-elect Fincher could definitely win in TN-10, then.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

---

by: SaoMagnifico @ Mon Nov 29, 2010 at 19:33:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nope, its in Crockett

The whole "farmer from Frog Jump" is a ruse he used for marketing, as he actually lives on the other end of the county- actually not too far from the Lauderdale County line. He may be "from" Frog Jump, but he doesn't live there now as local and state media disproved early on in the Republican primary, but that's really neither here nor there as he is from Crockett either way.

Democrat: TN-8

---

by: wtndem @ Mon Nov 29, 2010 at 21:05:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bart Gordon

Not sure why you'd think a Congressman who voluntarily retired from the nuthouse known as the House of Representatives would want to come back.

As for 'David Tanner', I believe the real name is John Tanner. Still a Democrat, though.

---

by: Sheamus O'Range @ Mon Jan 24, 2011 at 04:02:09 AM UTC