CD14

How Democratic is this? It doesn't look like it contains Akron.

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by: krazen1211 @ Sat Nov 27, 2010 at 02:55:07 AM UTC

Interesting map

trying to figure out which of the 13 current republican representatives get left out of this map?

Or are we assuming Jordan runs for US senate in 2012?

I think the basic concept of this Map will hold.

You can draw a map with just 4 democratic seats.

Then because there is two seats to be lost the republicans have to carve up someone's seat.  

The two easiest and best to curve up would be Jordan's #4--its centrally located and its heavily republican. Heavily republican is key because his seat borders on three freshman who would love to get juicy parts of the district that are very conservative.

The other district that would be easy to carve up would be Boehner's 8th district.  Its very republican and easy to cut up.

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by: rdelbov @ Sat Nov 27, 2010 at 03:36:38 AM UTC

Here's my take

CD1 - This is a hideous gerrymander, and one that ensures that Chabot will stick around after 2012.  Safe R.

CD2 - It looks like you've thrown in more of Cincinnati into CD2, as well as some swingy/democratic territory like Hocking and Athens counties.  This district's PVI is probably down to about R+7 or R+8 as drawn, which could put Mean Jean Schmidt into trouble, especially in a strong democratic year.  Schmidt really causes the GOP some headaches because a generic republican would probably easily hold this seat. Lean R.

CD3 - Boehner's district is still very red.  Safe R.

CD4 - I wonder about CD4 a bit, especially if Jim Jordan were to leave this seat open.  Marion County is trending democratic, Clark County is a swing county, and you've thrown in an awful lot of Franklin County too, where Columbus is turning into Cleveland South for the Democrats.  This seat probably still leans R, but a good D candidate in a good year could win this one.

CD5 - I don't know where I come out on this one.  You've got plenty of Columbus in there along with some democratic-leaning river counties.  Also, the republican counties there, with the exceptions of Licking and Washington, aren't THAT republican.  This one's a swinger.

CD6 - Mike Turner is universally beloved in Dayton and this district is little changed.  Safe R.

CD7 - The farm reaches of the blood-red west central probably make this one impossible for Team Blue, but Wood and Sandusky were carried by Obama (and Strickland), and the counties in the northwest corner like Defiance, Williams, and Henry, are quickly turning blue as well.  By decade end this one could be within reach.

CD8 - There's some of Franklin here, but most of the other counties are blood red.  Safe R.

CD9 - Again, a lot of Columbus area balanced by hugely red counties.  Richland and Delaware counties are two counties that appear to be turning somewhat toward the democrats but there's still a long way to go.  This one's probably likely R barring a strong democratic candidate and a good year nationally for Team Blue.

CD10 - Now this seat is interesting.  You have blue-leaning river counties balanced with republican-leaning ones in the middle of the state.  Stark, Jefferson, Mahoning, Tuscarawas, and Belmont were all carried by Obama and most of these were also carried by Strickland.  I'm guessing this one's probably a toss-up, just like CD5.  

CD11 - The heart of this district is very republican, in Medina, Wayne, and Ashland counties.  Some of the other regions are swingy but I'd say this one's a safe R seat.

CD12 - Safe D

CD13 - Safe D

CD14 - This is the most intriguing district on the board.  It's basically a redo of Betty Sutton's current district, with Akron and Elyria pulled out, but with more of Cleveland and it's inner west suburbs added.  My guess is that this seat is still democratic leaning, maybe D+4 or D+5, but the republicans could win it in a strong year for their side.  Ideally, they would probably like to move this seat farther out into Medina/southern Lorain, maybe Wayne, and avoid some of the really democratic parts of Cuyahoga, but in doing so CD11 would have to suck up republican territory from CDs 4, 9, and 10, possibly putting them into the blue column.  

CD15 - Safe D

CD16 - This is probably an even PVI seat now thanks to greater portions of Summit and Trumbull counties being added in.  Steven LaTourette would probably hold it well, but if it were to come open this seat could easily flip.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

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by: StephenCLE @ Sat Nov 27, 2010 at 04:45:37 AM UTC

That's good information

D+5 doesn't sound like a strong enough Dem district in a 12-4 gerrymander.

That's why I've suggested that you eliminate both Sutton and Kucinich and draw a new Dem seat in Columbus/Cincinnati.

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by: krazen1211 @ Sat Nov 27, 2010 at 04:55:38 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Krazen

Did you see that majority minority district that snakes down from downtown Columbus to Dayton to Cinci?

I'd use that district, and combine that with the map of NE Ohio that you created in an earlier thread (perhaps you should repost that here for discussion).  However, one thing you didn't do is shore up Johnson.

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by: edtorres04 @ Sat Nov 27, 2010 at 14:22:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Here

This is the district.

Source

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by: emilysdad @ Sat Nov 27, 2010 at 16:39:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And

here is a link to Krazen's NE Ohio map:

http://img574.imageshack.us/i/...

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by: edtorres04 @ Sat Nov 27, 2010 at 17:15:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hey thanks

for the analysis! What do you suggest? A lot of the problems are in Columbus; do you think they should just give a seat to Dems?

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

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by: nycyoungin @ Sat Nov 27, 2010 at 09:06:30 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

As an Ohio neophyte (neohiophyte?)...

I think so. Most of what I've seen, statistically and anecdotally, suggests the city and some of its inner suburbs are trending Democratic, which puts a map like this at extreme risk of becoming a dummymander by the time the decade is out.

That's the big problem Republicans face in redistricting this year: determining where they need to give even swingish urban areas their own districts and where they can risk slicing cities up and combining them with Republican-tending suburban, exurban, and rural areas. If cities continue to experience explosive population growth, young and minority voters continue to skew heavily Democratic (in most regions), and/or Democrats make even slight inroads with suburban voters (in some regions), a lot of maps parceling out chunks of urban centers to diffuse the Democratic vote could end up looking awfully shortsighted by 2022.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

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by: SaoMagnifico @ Sat Nov 27, 2010 at 09:22:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

columbus

Is it possible to split into 60 districts?

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by: pogo935 @ Sat Nov 27, 2010 at 13:35:34 PM UTC

columbus

I mean 6

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by: pogo935 @ Sat Nov 27, 2010 at 13:35:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I suppose you could

if you ran CD2, CD4, CD6, CD7, CD12, and CD15 all into Franklin County.  But the problem with that is, if you do that, you'll probably have to cede a few districts in the northeast, and maybe one in Cincinnati or Dayton as well, since you'd be stretching the republican rural areas extremely thin.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

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by: StephenCLE @ Sun Nov 28, 2010 at 03:11:04 AM UTC

[ Parent ]