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Post-mortem on the Slaughter - Who won and lost where?

by: conspiracy

Thu Nov 25, 2010 at 5:29 PM EST


66 seats previously held by Democrats in the House of Representatives fell to the Republicans. Open seats accounted for 14 losses and incumbents accounted for 52.

LA-03 (Open - Melancon)
TN-06 (Open - Gordon)
NY-29 (Open - Massa)
AR-02 (Open - Snyder)
KS-03 (Open - Moore)
IN-08 (Open - Ellsworth)
TN-08 (Open - Tanner)
WI-07 (Open - Obey)
PA-07 (Open - Sestak)
AR-01 (Open - Berry)
MI-01 (Open - Stupak)
WA-03 (Open - Baird)
NH-02 (Open - Hodes)
WV-01 (Open - Mollohan)
PA-03 (Dahlkemper)
FL-08 (Grayson)
OH-01 (Driehaus)
OH-15 (Kilroy)
TX-17 (Edwards)
FL-24 (Kosmas)
IL-11 (Halvorson)
CO-04 (Markey)
FL-02 (Boyd)
NH-01 (Shea-Porter)
WI-08 (Kagen)
GA-08 (Marshall)
NV-03 (Titus)
MD-01 (Kratovil)
PA-11 (Kanjorski)
VA-05 (Perriello)
OH-16 (Boccieri)
VA-02 (Nye)
SC-05 (Spratt)
MS-01 (Childers)
AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick)
NM-03 (Teague)
ND-AL (Pomeroy)
AZ-05 (Mitchell)
SD-AL (Herseth Sandlin)
IL-14 (Foster)
PA-10 (Carney)
NY-19 (Hall)
IL-17 (Hare)
CO-03 (Salazar)
PA-08 (Murphy)
IN-09 (Hill)
AL-02 (Bright)
ID-01 (Minnick)
NJ-03 (Adler)
FL-22 (Klein)
TX-23 (Rodriguez)
OH-18 (Space)
TN-04 (Davis)
MO-04 (Skelton)
MI-07 (Schauer)
NY-20 (Murphy)
VA-09 (Boucher)
OH-06 (Wilson)
MS-04 (Taylor)
NY-24 (Arcuri)
IL-08 (Bean)
NC-02 (Etheridge)
MN-08 (Oberstar)
TX-27 (Ortiz)
NY-25 (Maffei)
NY-13 (McMahon)

Now, what interested me was where these people lost and indeed, where did people survive?

Seats lost with a GOP PVI (52):

TX-17 R+20
MS-04 R+20
ID-01 R+18
AL-02 R+16
MS-01 R+14
MO-04 R+14
MD-01 R+13
TN-06 R+13
TN-04 R+13
LA-03 R+12
VA-09 R+11
GA-08 R+10
ND-AL R+10
SD-AL R+9
WV-01 R+9
PA-10 R+8
AR-01 R+8
IN-08 R+8
SC-05 R+7
OH-18 R+7
CO-04 R+6
NM-02 R+6
AZ-01 R+6
IN-09 R+6
FL-02 R+6
TN-08 R+6
VA-05 R+5
VA-02 R+5
C0-03 R+5
AZ-05 R+5
AR-02 R+5
NY-29 R+5
OH-16 R+4
NY-13 R+4
TX-23 R+4
FL-24 R+4
NY-19 R+3
PA-03 R+3
KS-03 R+3
MI-01 R+3
NY-20 R+2
NY-24 R+2
MI-07 R+2
FL-08 R+2
TX-27 R+2
NC-02 R+2
OH-06 R+2
IL-14 R+1
NJ-03 R+1
IL-11 R+1
IL-08 R+1
NH-01 R+0

In these hyper-partisan times even multi-term incumbents couldn't hold on in the terrible environment despite having done so easily in the past.

Seats retained with a GOP PVI (17):

UT-02 R+15 (Matheson)
OK-02 R+14 (Boren)
KY-06 R+9 (Chandler)
AR-04 R+7 (Ross)
NC-11 R+6 (Shuler)
PA-04 R+6 (Altmire)
PA-17 R+6 (Holden)
WV-03 R+6 (Rahall)
MN-07 R+5 (Peterson)
NC-07 R+5 (McIntyre)
AZ-08 R+4 (Giffords)
IN-02 R+2 (Donnelly)
NC-08 R+2 (Kissell)
CA-11 R+1 (McNerney)
MN-01 R+1 (Walz)
NY-23 R+1 (Owens)
PA-12 R+1 (Critz)

These select few deserve kudos for surving.

Seats lost with a Dem PVI (14):

WA-03 D+0
WI-08 D+0
OH-01 D+1
OH-15 D+1
FL-22 D+1
NV-03 D+2
NH-02 D+3
PA-07 D+3
WI-07 D+3
NY-25 D+3
PA-08 D+3
IL-17 D+3
MN-08 D+3
PA-11 D+4

Proof positive that the wave was not confined to traditional Republican territory.

Republican seats with a Dem PVI (20):

WA-03 D+0
WI-08 D+0
FL-22 D+1
NJ-02 D+1
OH-01 D+1
OH-12 D+1  
OH-15 D+1
NV-03 D+2
PA-08 D+2
PA-15 D+2
IL-17 D+3
MN-08 D+3  
NH-02 D+3  
NY-25 D+3
PA-07 D+3
WA-08 D+3  
WI-07 D+3
PA-06 D+4  
PA-11 D+4
IL-10 D+6

Obviously redistricting makes this more difficult but there are some juicy targets here for Dems to go on the offense.

Seats lost that voted for Obama (30):

VA-02
TX-23
KS-03
NY-19
MI-01
NY-20
FL-08
MI-07
NY-24
NC-02
TX-27
WI-08
IL-14
IL-11
IL-08
NJ-03
NH-01
WA-03
OH-15
FL-22
OH-01
NV-03
PA-08
WI-07
MN-08
NY-25
NH-02
IL-17
PA-07
PA-11

Obama won big so it was to be expected that some of these districts would slip back.

Seats lost by incumbents that voted for Kerry (6):

NY-25
IL-17
PA-08
FL-22
MN-08
PA-11

The most disappointing group of losses in my mind.
conspiracy :: Post-mortem on the Slaughter - Who won and lost where?
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Post-mortem on the Slaughter - Who won and lost where? | 16 comments
Kerry also carried
NH-02, PA-07 and WI-07 but since those were open and such races are usually easier to win they deserve a pass.
some good news...
there are a lot of potential pick ups next cycle lol
Depends on redistricting
But they won't all change radically.
[ Parent ]
thx
for these lists. The Kerry Districts are heartbreaking.

2010 Race Tracker Wiki
Actually...
Most of the districts that had "seats lost with a Democratic PVI" are actually traditionally Republican territory. Most of them were held by the Republicans for a long time (well, not NV-03, since that's a pretty new seat) before Democrats took them in 2006 or 2008.  

I think of where we are now is about where we were in 2002-2004, except with several fewer southern conservadems. It was kinda disheartening to see all that hard work wiped out.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

Kanjorski, Obey, Oberstar and Hare
Were all there a good while. Ancestorally you may have a point but that is going too far back for my liking. Anyway, my point was they are all districts carried consistently at the top of the ticket so in that sense they are or should be Democratic seats.
[ Parent ]
I'd be more worried about Obey's district then the others.
Hare's district was designed to be a Democratic voting dump in downstate Illinois, but was sensitive to such a large wave. Oberstar's district voted for all the Democratic statewide winners in 2010, including Dayton, and Scranton didn't really move right this year; looking at the preliminary maps I'm pretty sure at least Sestak won his district; plus, Republicans will probably be more interested in shoring up either Barletta and Marino then diluting Scranton. In a good year Dems could win one of the later two back (if not both); Republicans are unlikely to get a really good redistricting plan for Cravaack with Dayton as governor; and with Dems controlling redistricting in Illinois Hare's district probably won't exist in 2012. Obey's district remains to be seen, but I'm worried about knocking off Duffy know that he has incumbency.

MI-06 (home), MI-02 (college)


20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)

[ Parent ]
I assume you mean Hare's district, not Obey's
the loss of that one says a lot about Hare's poor campaigning skills and how Republican downstate Illinois is becoming.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I actually menat Obey's, but Hare's is worrisome, too.
I find it more worrisome that a district in a region like rural Wisconsin that is obviously not going as Republican as fast as downstate Illinois such as Obey's went so Republican this year. Hare's district was always a tenuous attempt to preserve Democratic strength in downstate Illinois (Lane Evans made it appear more Democratic then it was, and Kirk and Brady both swept the district this year), so a competitive election in 2004 that turned out labor and a favorite son on the ballot in 2008 probably made realignment seem farther in the future then it is.

Its the campaign thing that troubles me; Hare was a piss-poor campaigner, but if Duffy is really as good as people say, then Obey's district is definitely winnable. But Dems got wiped out, but no absolutely destroyed percentage wise in the whole northern belt of seat from Michigan's U.P. to North Dakota, areas that survived the 1994 wave. Realignment happens, as much of a bitch as it is; who would've thought twenty years ago that in a close Senate race the unsuccessful Democratic candidate in Pennsylvania would win Delaware County, but not the coal counties around Pittsburgh?

MI-06 (home), MI-02 (college)

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)

[ Parent ]
Ah, I see. I'm more worried about Hare's than Obey's
because Hare's is basically maxed out on Democratic votes. Obey's district at least might be winnable down the road if Wisconsin loses another district and the 7th has an easy place to go for more Dem votes (aka Eau Claire). IL-17 pretty much has nowhere to run. We'd best destroy it in redistricting.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Redistricting Wisconsin.
I'm pretty curious to see how Republicans will handle redistricting in Wisconsin. The state went from being 8-5 Dem to 8-5 Repub, but Kagen's is about as Republican as you can get without eating into more of the rural west or taking some of the Republican suburban areas out of Petri's rather even-split district, and Obey's really didn't go THAT Republican (Feingold didn't get wiped out in the district like Lassa), so the only way to make Duffy or Ribble really safe is to completely reconfigure the districts, which would either help Kind or hurt Petri. I still think, for example, that Obama will win Obey's district whether he loses or wins Wisconsin, but Dems need to make getting rid of Duffy, Benishek and Berg one of their top priorities in 2012. Hare's district is a goner, it won't exist in 2012, like you said, and Cravaack and Barletta are most likely one-term wonders without a little help from their friends with redistricting.

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)
[ Parent ]
Hare's only been there since 2007.


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
IT's also interesting that...
Lane Evans had been swept in on the Democratic wave of 1982, and that he was probably protected by his own incumbency and the incumbency-protection effort in 2001. After all, its only a D+3 district, the kind you'd expect, in a 60+ wave, to fall.

MI-06 (home), MI-02 (college)

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)

[ Parent ]
Oops
So he was. I was confusing him with longevity of Democratic representation in the district.
[ Parent ]
I'm going to go ahead and do my analysis of margins
Here's my spreadsheet: https://spreadsheets.google.co... .  You can help out too!

Even though this was only supposed to cover I'm going to include all districts whose races that were competitive in 2006, in 2008, or in 2010.  You should help populate this list with data; perhaps one day we'll end up with a list like this for the ENTIRE nation.

This might give us a clue about who we want coming back to run again, or such.

Also, re opening post: You put NY-03 instead of NY-13.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

NY-13
Good catch. Thanks.
[ Parent ]
Post-mortem on the Slaughter - Who won and lost where? | 16 comments

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