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CA-11: AP Calls It for McNerney

by: Crisitunity

Wed Nov 24, 2010 at 8:37 PM EST


This one had seemed wrapped up a couple weeks ago, but there's nothing wrong with an abundance of caution. At any rate, the AP finally felt like it could call the race today, in favor of sophomore Dem Jerry McNerney.

The latest ballot-tallying updates from the most populous part of the district showed McNerney, D-Pleasanton, again had widened his lead over Republican challenger David Harmer to a margin of 2,475 votes, or about 1 percent of the 237,808 ballots counted. The Associated Press reported fewer than 1,900 ballots remained to be counted.

Harmer hasn't conceded yet, although McNerney declared victory way back on Nov. 10. This means that, despite the onslaught of destruction in other parts of the nation, the GOP didn't pick up a single House seat in California (and only one on the West Coast: WA-03). This also leaves only one race that remains to be decided in the House: NY-01, where Dem incumbent Tim Bishop leads by 235 with all absentee votes counted but with challenged ballots still to be sorted out.
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CA-11: AP Calls It for McNerney | 88 comments
General
General question, but were there more close races this cycle that couldn't be called on election day than others, or did it just seem that way?
Off the top of my head from 2008 (excluding president/runoffs)
CA-04
CA-44
OH-15
MD-01
VA-05
MN-Sen

Surely I am forgetting some?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
AK-Sen, OR-Sen...
There were a few other House races too.

20 years old, male, GA-12 (home), GA-10 (school); previously lived in CA-29, CA-28, CA-23, IL-06, IL-14, GA-01.
[ Parent ]
If Bishop hangs on it'll be 242-193.
Which means we need +25 to get to 218 in '12.

I think that's doable, with a little luck.
We gained over twenty in 1996, but lost several others which led to only a net gain of 9 (mainly due to southern seats continuing to switch).

That won't happen this time, though redistricting is an added wrinkle.  More likely would be getting things to within single digits.

Of course, I think potentially neither party is going to have a real "working majority" for a while after 2012.

[ Parent ]
Even unfavorable redistricting
can create instability for us to take advantage of.

The problem is that we don't know what the districts will look like yet, so it's hard to develop a strategy.

It would be helpful if the Florida Democratic party didn't suck. Still, I think there may be enough targets between NY, FL, and CA to come close.  

[ Parent ]
For prepare a strategy I would take the worst case

The right strategy is easier than it seems and the results would be not as negative as the people think.
[ Parent ]
Still a good idea to set up benchmarks of what we can realistically do
I think it isn't out of the question to pick up, say, at least one of the NH districts back, and make back some ground in NY (2-3 pickup sounds fair).  We can also take back Salazar's seat in Colorado, and at least a couple of the seats in Florida are competitive.  Ortiz's seat may or may not come back, but the right kind of Texas Democrat is certainly a strong fit there.  

With redistricting though, we stand to lose 1 seat in Massachusetts, I think 1 in CT among others.  That would probably be my biggest concern, even though we'll probably split the difference on the 4 going to Texas and NV-04.  

Personally, as much as I would love the Democrats to win the House, I feel like the country needs to stop wave electioning every 2 years.  It gives the general air of instability and I think the people would themselves prefer to just let things turn out as they are without government switching so very often.

[ Parent ]
I know we're not supposed to discuss issues here
But I also believe the American people - however much their voting is functionally at variance with their desires - actually want the government to function well and do things. Opinion polls bear out the fact that the American people apparently want the two parties to cooperate and actually do something. But we all know that the Republicans in Congress have been very open in saying that their strategy is primarily motivated by rejecting everything proposed by the president and the Democratic Leadership, just for the sake of blocking what they would call the "Democrat agenda" (and a bunch of worse things) and making Obama a "one-term president." So in view of that, if the Republican-led House sees to it that almost nothing gets accomplished, do you really think that a wave election to end divided government is somehow bad because of some "instability" you think it would somehow bring?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
your post highlights and the 2010 cycle exemplifies
The conclusion I've come to on American politics; everything is fucked up and its not because of our politicians but rather our citizenrey who are too lazy and/or apathetic to do their research.  The electorate wants the government to fix the economy so they vote in the party that thinks the government should have zero role in this recovery.  They want politicians to work together more so they create a composition where the House can block every single piece of legislation.  People desparately want Obama to succeed and create jobs so they vote in people who vow to make him a one-termer.

This really has been the perfect era to come of political age as I feel like I've seen it all already in 6 short years of election watching.  Although maybe that's just how simple the political formula is to win an election, incumbency status of opponent+national environment-PVI+tier of candidacy+good ground game=win.

[ Parent ]
You're forgetting Illinois
We have the trifecta - we'll likely pick up a 3-4 seats there because of redistricting.  
[ Parent ]
Right NOW
(in present economical situation) it's a very tall order. Economy is stiil in bad shape and it's not guaranteed to recover fully in 2 years, Obama's popularity is rather low and his reelection isn't guaranteed (except, may be, against Palin, but i still don't think that Republicans will be so dumb to nominate her). If asked today i would say that i see 12-15 districts now which Democrats can flip even without great luck, but not many more...
[ Parent ]
Well, DE Republicans were dumb enough to nominate
you-know-who so that gives me hope.  I think If obama wins reelection with >52% or so we take the house as there are a lot of fruit hanging low enough for us to capture the house. Any less then that and it will be difficult.
[ Parent ]
Generally agree. But that 52% are absolutely not guaranteed now.

[ Parent ]
Course not
But if he is tied in NC and ahead in VA as per PPP then he is on target for something like that.
[ Parent ]
Whatever
California did this election cycle, we should all follow suit because they did a phenomenal job at electing Democrats this year.  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
A couple of things
1.) Incumbent protection map
2.) The implosion of the California Republican Party
3.) Wealthy candidates/propositions=Do not pass go, or collect $200

I love my state :)

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.

[ Parent ]
Also
Hispanic population growth, and two major Democratic Urban areas.  Most states only have one.

States we lost big in didn't really have major metropolitan areas like the Bay area and LA that could carry the state over.  If SF wasn't as liberal as it was, Harris would have lost (then again, she is from SF, so maybe that's a bad statement to make), but she raked a net of 179,513 votes from there.  If that was halved it would have made this race very close.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
The
latino community seemed interested in voting this year but how well did the AA community and historically unpolitical asian community turn out?  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
its a tough state for the GOP
Hard to imagine that this happened 20 years ago.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U...

HW hit 47% in Los Angeles.

[ Parent ]
and won now-solidly D counties
like Napa and Monterey.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Harris
did really well among Hispanics while Cooley did really well among independents. So there was probably more Hispanics voting than independents.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Also
unlike in Pennsylvania and other states where the suburbs traditionally lean red in neutral/GOP years, the San Francisco/Oakland suburbs lean blue most of the time. 2006 was just an anomaly, Schwarzenegger was at the peak of his popularity and Angelides ran a spectacularly bad campaign.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Oh Phil Angelides...
To this day, I still wonder if Steve Westly could have defeated Arnold. I wonder if Steve Westly is done running for offices.


26, Liberal Democrat, gay male, CA-38
[ Parent ]
Me too. Get me out of Texas!


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Have minorities.
Jerry Brown actually LOST the white vote to Whitman, 50%-45%.  Hell, Fiorina beat Boxer among whites by a double-digit margin, 52%-42%!

It's just that Brown and Boxer cleaned up among Latinos.  Now, some Latino groups have problems with the methodology, and say that Brown did better among Latinos than the exit poll's 64%-31% showing (and Boxer's 65%-29% showing against Fiorina).  But that's the only exit poll I've seen when it comes to how Latinos voted in California.

Oh, and it's not just among white men, even white women went narrowly for Whitman and Fiorina (though neither got 50%).

Actually, both Whitman and Fiorina beat out Brown and Boxer among Independents.  Both Brown and Boxer got only 42% of Independents to vote for them.

So what did California do?  Have minorities.  Lots of them.  And then throw in some Latino immigrant bashing on top of that from the GOP.

[ Parent ]
Actually, that website did an exit poll in conjunction with La Raza and the SEIU
Interestingly, they show that the Hispanic vote is a lot more Democratic than the other exit polls suggest (and the case they make for why their poll is more correct than the NEP's poll is compelling, although I'd add that I'm actually not totally trained in statistics so I could be wrong on that).

http://latinodecisions.wordpre...

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I believe it
Two Spanish-speaking Latinas ahead of me in line to vote basically used the guide the Democratic Party sent out as their ballot. My Spanish sucks, but from what I picked up, Gavin Newsom should thank his lucky stars that his smiling mug was on that piece of paper, or their votes, at least, would've gone to the guy with the Spanish-sounding name. This actually makes me hopeful that when the Republican nominee chooses Marco Rubio as his running mate in 2016 in a naked ploy to get Latino votes that it won't work.

Keep choking on the haterade, Republicans.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
If it works,
he will either (a) help them narrowly win Florida or (b) help them build on whatever success they were going to have that year anyway. Other than that, his presence won't be worth much of anything, or so I think. Why? Because while Hispanics aren't opposed to voting for Republicans, they seem far more likely to vote for Democrats, even when the candidates are Republicans. We have a few examples, like the candidacies Brian Sandoval and Susanna Martinez, that seem to show that Hispanics won't vote for a Republican merely because he or she is Hispanic. Maybe a point or two is all it takes in a close race, but I think it's increasingly clear that increase the percentages a Republican gets by a huge amount.

My guess is, if Rubio is ever on a ticket and the Republicans win, they would have won anyway that year. He would have probably helped them turn out their base if he is seen as a strong conservative, or he merely helps them to well amongst Hispanics like they did when Bush ran in 2004. But again, even if he helps, it won't really be because of him. He won't be the one pushing the sled down the hill, but his weight might help it go a little faster.

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
what california did
had many more dems than reps and few indies.  that' all they did really.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Did Harmer/Tea Partiers
Ever scale back or at least offer some evidence of their histronic claims of "large scale voter fraud?" This might have had nothing to do with Harmer's camp and merely been the tea party group blowing smoke, but it would be pretty tacky if such an allegation came directly from a top-tier candidate like Harmer without any evidence...

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
More precisely, the GOP had ZERO net gains on the West Coast......
We lost an open seat in WA, but we knocked out Djou in HI-01.  So it's a wash, and in fact the only West Coast incumbent to lose was a Republican.

And we won all statewide races in HI, CA, OR, and WA.  Only in strongly Republican Alaska did we lose federal or statewide races.

In a year like this it's a stunning result.  It's a result that would make us very happy in a neutral environment, let alone this one.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

Not only that, but the GOP still did pretty damn bad among Hispanics everywhere (except Florida)
Given how much of a slaughter this year was for Democrats, you'd think the Republicans could have broken 40% of the Hispanic vote, but they still lost it by over 20 points (with Hispanic candidates like Susana Martinez and Brian Sandoval mired in the 30s).

Could be that I'm being way too optimistic for my own good, but I could very easily see the Republicans have some very unpleasant surprises come 2012 in places like Texas where they carried the day in some districts with very weak candidates (I'd also keep an eye on NM-02, a big reason why Teague originally won in 2008 was an influx of Hispanic votes in the presidential year, Steve Pearce is pretty damn xenophobic and could see himself get swamped out by a more motivated Hispanic vote).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
It didn't help that Sandoval said
that he had no issues with AZ's SB1070 because his children didn't like Hispanic.

Martinez also supported SB1070 and that's why she didn't win or come close to winning that latino vote despite that the fact that she herself is of Hispanic descent.

This reminds me a lot of 2008 when the GOP hoped that having a woman as Veep candidate would allow McCain to win more of the woman vote than he would have otherwise...that backfired when people realized Palin is an airbrushed idiot who lied through her teeth on things like troopergate (when she was declared guilty of breaching ethics rules only to turn around and say she was acquitted of "any hint" of ethics charges).

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
Well, women and minorities ain't stupid
The GOP can pretend that to solve their problems among those groups all they have to do is someone to run with the right last name or whatnot to run, but neither group agrees with them on the issues, and that's why they'll lose those groups (and that is going to affect them in time).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
which of course shouldnt be too surprising
As they're minority/gender insensitive to begin with!  And this insensitivity is what makes them think throwing a black man at the RNC position is what solves their racial problems.  I loooooooved when the RNC unveiled their new website and it was one big advertisement to black people, vote for us because so and so, whose black, was a Republican!

Its comforting to know that the GOP can't do everything simply by following the correct marketing plan.  You can win over Indy's, you can make us look incompetent, but we won't be yielding an ounce of our base to the GOP.  Hispanics are still winnable I think for them but the GOP is heading in the direction, wrt their immigration policies, to set them up like AA's and be 90-10 Dem.  (Eh, 80-20 may be the max due to Catholic demons.)

[ Parent ]
As I've said before, immigration and racism broadly are overstated as issues with Hispanics......
Those things matter, for sure, and drive Hispanics and all other people of color toward Democrats, myself included.

But the primary reason Hispanics and other minorities vote Democratic is ideological:  very large majorities of people of color view government as part of the solution to societal problems, not part of the problem.  A sizeable-but-less-large majority of white voters see it the other way around.

You see this reality in polling on many issues.  People like SSPer LordMike on the left and many Republicans on the right foolishly focus on things like abortion to say Hispanics are "socially conservative" and the GOP has an "in" that way.  But the reality is that those issues are of no political importance to most Hispanics, and what is more significant is polling on Hispanics' views on issues relating to economic policy and the social safety net.  Look at health care reform, for example:  Hispanics overwhelmingly support the new law.

Obviously immigration and other race-related issues matter a lot more to Hispanics and other communities with large immigrant populations than to white Americans or black Americans.  But they are still secondary to broader issues that all Americans care about.  It's simply that most Hispanics see things on those issues more like us than like Republicans.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
The thing is,
the Republicans don't need to lose Hispanics like they lose blacks for it to be deadly. They could still probably get as much as 30 percent of the Hispanic vote but end up being screwed if they can't make up for it in other ways. It's only when it becomes roughly evenly split that the Democrats have a problem.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Hispanic vote
What percentage did Bush get in 04? I've heard numbers all over the place between 38 and 44%.

At a guess, 40% is the breakpoint.

[ Parent ]
Most reliable estimate is Kerry won them 58-40, based on...
...the compilation of Hispanic samples in state exit polls.

The national exit poll said it was 54-44, but even Warren Mitofsky himself admitted there were problems with Hispanic and other minority samples in the 2004 national exit poll.

The problem was that the national exit poll didn't have as broad a base of precincts where polling was done, and those precincts sampled weren't representative of minority communities.  For example, a Hispanic voter in an affluent white neighborhood is more likely to vote Republican than a Hispanic voter in a lower-income or predominantly Hispanic neighborhood.  So the Hispanic and other minority group samples were no good.  But the state-level exit polls surveyed many more precincts, and more representative precincts, in each state, and the minority voting reflected in the compilation of state-level data showed almost all minority groups more heavily Democratic and more heavily for Kerry than the national exit poll showed.

As it was, even 40% for Bush was very good, and makes sense considering his concerted effort to court the Hispanic community through his years in electoral politics.  He felt personally comfortable within Hispanic communities, and that showed...and helped.  He was very unusual that way among white conservatives; most white conservatives just don't feel personally comfortable surrounded by large numbers of people of color.  Also helping Bush with Hispanics was that so many lived in Texas, and his overperformance there alone probably got him an extra point.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Consider it on a state level
where the effect of any Republican gain in the Hispanic vote can be far more significant. It made all of the difference as far as Bush winning New Mexico and helped push up his margins in California (where he did amazingly well amongst blacks as well), Arizona, Florida, and Colorado, at least.

The Republicans can probably still be competitive, or even win, in swing states if they don't get absolutely crushed amongst Hispanics and win whites by a big margin, but if the Democrats can keep it close or even slightly win whites and win big amongst Hispanics, they won't come close.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
"look", not "like"


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Where does it say how much of the Hispanic vote Susana Martinez got?
According to Pew there was no exit poll for New Mexico. I find it hard to believe that a double Hispanic ticket could have got in the 30s with Hispanics in a state where Hispanics are relatively Republican.
[ Parent ]
Well, I think it probably could have hit 40%
in NM but no higher.  Also, you're thinking of Florida (where there's a heavy Cuban-American population).

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Maybe less than 40%.
Someone please get some info.  I read somewhere that it was in the high 30's, but don't remember where.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Right here
http://latinodecisions.wordpre...

That map will give you exit poll data from Latino Decisions in all states with a significant Hispanic population (except for New York for some reason) (in conjunction with the SEIU and La Raza)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
This seems suspect
When your polling is different from everyone else's, it's either because you're right and everyone else is wrong, or you're wrong. All else equal, the single outlier is probably wrong.

Secondly, if other exit polls have consistently underestimated Hispanic Democratic support, one of two things must happen. (a) Exit polls must consistently be biased towards Republicans. The 2004 Presidential exit polls are a glaring counterexample. (b) Other exit polls also underestimate white Republican support. You need a story for this as well, and while you could make one up (say, underpolling of rural areas), it seems rather implausible.

Finally, there is the issue of localised voting patterns. If Hispanics are really a lot more Democratic than other exit polls are implying, how did Republicans manage to pick up Hispanic majority districts like TX-23 and TX-27? Yes, Hispanic turnout is lower than population figures would imply, but not vastly lower. Perhaps whites in the area are unusually Republican. But again, this seems implausible. Perhaps someone like Nate Silver could get better estimates of Hispanic Democratic support by comparing the voting patterns of districts or counties that are similar but for their Hispanic populations.

[ Parent ]
It does look
like there are a lot of votes to be had, if we can effectively register new ones and get them to the polls in addition to effectively targeting old ones. I wonder, though, if we could see some heavy ticket splitting between the top of the ticket in a state like Texas, with Hispanics going for him by 10 or more points than they did last time but then the same voters giving enough votes to the Republican congressional candidate. That's probably more of a problem, though, amongst old voters.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Reminds me of how Scotland shut the Tories out in UK
Granted, the West Coast has more Republicans than Scotland has Tories, but it I was still reminded of Scotland. The Tories totally swept the rest of UK, but they still only ended up with one seat in Scotland.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
Goes back to Thatcher
and the strong Torie hostility towards greater autonomy for Wales and Scotland, (they also got completely crushed in Wales). It's rather like America really. The Tories do really in the English country side, the London suburbs, and parts of London, while Labor is mainly stuck in Scotland and Wales and some of the blue collar major cities plus parts of London.  
[ Parent ]
Hmm...
All of a sudden I want to move to Cali. Who's with me?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
MEMEMEMEMEMEMEMEMEMEMEMEMEME!!!!!!!!!!!
Raises both hands in the air and waves them wildly

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
me too!
I am sick of winter and its not even December! Just get me the hell out of this snow.  (Or a new car that it isn't a rolling death trap on ice.)
[ Parent ]
snow
It fell all the way down to 35 degrees last nite here in the SF Bay Area.

Its been some time since I have seen snow.  It did, some years ago, snow on Mt Hamilton in Santa Clara County, when I lived there.  They had to close the road over the Coastal rain because there were drifts of 2 or 3 inches scattered around.

Joe Cooper

[ Parent ]
Man
I can only imagine how great it would be if public schools in the Northeast were run by Californians. An inch of snow? Oh no let's cancel school! no school for 3 months

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Here in MN, I seemed to go to the school district
where it required six inches to even send us home early.
[ Parent ]
uh
We have 12.4% unemployment. Pretty much every inland county has a train wreck of an economy right now, and the coastal counties that are doing somewhat better still have very high living costs.

I would not advise anyone to move here unless they (a) already have a job lined up (as I did when I moved from ND 2 years ago) or (b) are coming here to study. We still have the best public universities in the world and the best private universities outside of Massachusetts.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
I'm very possibly
applying to UCLA, USC, Berkeley, and Stanford (I know, rival schools...) and I have to say, the thought of going to a public school with California's budget being what it is is pretty scary.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Its tough
to get in to the UC schools even if your a lifelong California resident. Plus the tuition increased again about a few days ago, which makes it even more rough. (I probably won't ever get to see any of the UC schools, and i'll be lucky if i managed to go to a Cal State)

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.
[ Parent ]
Want to go to a state school?
Apply to SF State.  I think they might accept just about everyone.  I got in from high school, and I was probably one of the laziest students at my high school (I applied for all of my colleges the night of their deadlines, for example, and kinda did it half heartedly).  I have since gotten my act together (Dean's list Spring 2010), and am hoping to transfer to UC Berkley next year (highly doubt it will occur, but why not try right?)

There are some nice people, and the school is right outside the city, so it's fun to go in there on weekends.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Unfortunately
doesn't look like they have a good program for what I want to do. Also, grad school admissions tend to be different, so chances are I'll have to work my ass off and keep my fingers crossed no matter where I apply. :P

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I've always been
been one of the laziest as well (as we speak too! But hey its not SSP's fault ;). The community college i want to go to is really relaxed in terms of selection, i think the minimum GPA is only 2.0, (I have a 2.5 GPA average as of now), but the costs are another thing. UC Berkeley? Wow, that's my dream school but its not gonna happen for me unless i really go into work overdrive. I want to shoot for either Cal State Fullerton or Long Beach then maybe UC Irvine, majoring in political science.

I know this isn't the place to talk about college-related things (maybe the Open thread), but i've been wracking my brain over all of the general ed and transfer requirements. Thanks for your help.

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.

[ Parent ]
Well
better have tons of scholarship money lined up. Because the UC's raised fees for 8% for next year and the CSU's a whopping 15% fee hike, to be phased in throughout next year. Its tough. And that's not factoring the fact you'll have to live in a dorm meaning you'll have to pay for everything yourself. But I would still apply. The UC's (especially UCLA and Cal) are some of the best universities in the country, don't let the high cost of fee's discourage you. Just plan more carefully.

Personally I'm spending 3 years in community college so I can get some of the classes for my major and all of my General Ed classes out of the way for way cheaper. Also I can live at home and when I eventually find a job, stock up enough money so I won't be a starving college kid when I transfer to UCD (UC Davis). My community college has this great thing where if I meet a certain amount of requirements and have 60 transferable units, I'm guaranteed admission into either UC Davis, Santa Cruz, Santa Barbara, Riverside, Merced, Riverside, San Diego.

Oh and Berkeley lost the "Axe" to Stanford a couple of weeks ago. It wasn't even close 48-14.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Same here
I'm also planning on going to a community college, Fullerton College. It has one of the highest transfer rates in the state, its #1 in terms of transferring to a CSU. What community college are you going to? I never heard of going straight into a UC school from a community college.

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.
[ Parent ]
Skyline
College in San Bruno, CA.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
i just submitted my uc application
today :) so thankful its done

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Check your community college
I know in San Francisco there are agreements you can enter as a freshman at City College to guarantee transfer to U.C. Berkeley.
[ Parent ]
er, to clarify
I meant I'm applying to those places for grad school. in which case I'll receive a stipend (though probably not a very big one the way things are going...) and presumably won't live in a dorm. (I hope.)

either that or I can go to Cornell and spend another four years freezing my ass off due to the lake effect! :D


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
So I'm incredibly biased here...
if you couldn't tell by my handle, but I'm all for you applying to UCLA.  ;-)
[ Parent ]
I'm all for me applying there too!
California's a great place for East Asian Studies (makes sense, heh) and when I was in LA in August I loved it. Now whether I get in or not, that's the bigger question.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Hope you do.
I speak from experience: SoCal is AWESOME!

And I hope I can experience the just-as-awesome NorCal with a biotech job there.

My blog
Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

[ Parent ]
SoCal offends my political geekery in two ways:
LA and (U)SC.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
What I plan to do
is first get a summer job in Arizona to build up my network there and in Utah, get a job in Salt Lake City hopefully at a company that has a California branch, and then transfer to California. Even with the high cost of living, I like my job opportunities in California much more than here in "cheap" Texas. And not having to take allergy meds every day is a definite bonus.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Pollen
follows you everywhere sorry. You just won't be scorched most of the year if you live along the coast. But if you're ever in California, drive down the coast with an iPod hooked up to you're car, the views are spectacular south of Monterrey heading to SLO. The Bay Area would be a nice place for you, except rent really high and its expensive to live here but condos are going up fast in San Francisco so you might be able to score some affordable housing.

Also I'm giddy because in 2012 we're going to start building the country's first truly high speed rail system....in the Central Valley but its a start. Governor elect Walker, Kasich, Scott, please make good on your promise to return you're federal stimulus dollars devoted to high speed rail so the Feds can give California the money we need all the money we can get.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Yeah
I'd love to move to the Bay Area. It may be expensive, but the biotech opportunities there are tremendous, plus I just feel happier in California.

I grew up in SoCal and found the weather in OC at my grandparents' neighborhood much milder, no higher than about 80, than in my neighborhood in Rancho Cucamonga where it often got over 100 in the summer. Plus I tolerate heat much better than cold so I don't mind when the mercury rises over 100 (as long as its dry) anywhere near as much as when it dips below 40.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

[ Parent ]
here here!
At first I was utterly dismayed to read about all those governors' decisions.  Fuck em, send that money to MN then!
[ Parent ]
Well
I wasn't being serious.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
And
I've been planning to return home to California long before the elections.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
heh
I figured your post was tongue in cheek, but among other things I do demographic projections and I can't figure out for the life of me why some areas have been growing.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Unfortunately the dummymander still leads to losses of seats
At bare minimum, the idiotic incumbent protection plan costs us seats in the general area of Lundgren's and Calvert's seats.  

The area is a sea of red.  Even without disturbing the blue seats in the state at all, a gerrymander that at least attempted to create Dem districts would have lead to Dem seats in northwest CA and around Riverside.  There are several pockets in these red areas that are far more Democratic than others, and they could have been connected to make Dem seats without risking anything at all.

(And the dummymander is why McNerney's seat was so close, as this district was built to be Republican, even though it borders some extremely solid Dem districts.)

It's not a dummymander
There actually was a legitimate reason for the Democrats to do what they did, there were several freshmen Democrats from marginal districts that needed shoring up, plus remember that a big part of California's movement happened only recently, George Bush only lost California by 9 points in 2004 (compared to John McCain's 20 point+ loss).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Cowardice is not a "legitimate reason"
It could not have been a more cowardly, stupider dummymander. And as I just pointed out what you mentioned is not even remotely relevant.  The did not gerrymander the red areas!

What do freshmen Dems have to do with connecting the most Dem areas of Calvert's, Campbell's and mack's districts?  They are all represented by Republicans, so it is blithering idiocy to not make an effort to try to make a dem district out of the three, even if you don't touch any other district.  The same goes in the Northeast, where Nevada, Butte and suburban Sacramento counties are in different districts.  In a world where those Florida districts exist, it is an utter political fail to have not grouped together the most blue areas of these three districts in the northeast and three in the south.

[ Parent ]
I think the results in California are goods, very goods

But the current map of US house seats is bad, very bad. It help a lot to the republicans.
[ Parent ]
Prop 19 saved his ass
It brought out enough young liberals who otherwise wouldn't have voted.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
Didn't
he oppose it though?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
that doesn't matter
Prop 19 supporters still voted for him over Harmer.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
[ Parent ]
One of the more impressive holds
One of very few in a district with a GOP PVI. I'm going to do a diary on such things. Stay tuned.
And it's not just the GOP PVI
This seat was gerrymadered seat for a Republican to win.  Pombo won it 60/40 in 2002 and 2004.  It deliberately snakes around to grab (relatively) Republican areas.
[ Parent ]
CA-11: AP Calls It for McNerney | 88 comments

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