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NY-01: Bishop Leads Seesawing Count by 16 Votes

by: James L.

Mon Nov 22, 2010 at 3:26 PM EST


It's a battle of inches:

After Altschuler took the lead by some 15 votes as of mid-morning Monday, the total swung back in favor of Bishop by early afternoon. Altschuler's campaign said, by its count, Bishop leads by just 16 votes.

The two are also battling over challenged absentee ballots, a fight which could end up in court before the end of the week.

Keep in mind, though, that Randy Altschuler has challenged at least 212 more ballots than Bishop has -- and those votes aren't yet reflected in the totals above.

UPDATES: Bishop now leads by 69 votes. (Hat-tip to some eagle-eyed Swingnuts in the comments!)
James L. :: NY-01: Bishop Leads Seesawing Count by 16 Votes
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NY-01: Bishop Leads Seesawing Count by 16 Votes | 47 comments
This is going to turn into a mess
There's the potential for endless court challenges and delays and who-knows-what-else with this.  Especially when I lived in southern Indiana, some of the folks who had been around politics for a bit would still tell stories about the 8th district and the 1984 election, in which Frank McCloskey ended up being declared the winner six months later by the House of Representatives by 4 votes.  
Bishop up 69 votes
Bishop is now up 69 votes, Altschuler has now challenged 262 more ballots than Bishop.  3,683 ballots remain to be counted, the GOP has a 2.88% registration advantage in those ballots, but that advantage is slightly less than the advantage they had with the overall absentee count (about 3.45%)

http://www.newsday.com/long-is...

Bishop leads by 69 and article without Newsday paywall
As per Reid Epstein Twitter
Tim Bishop's lead up to 137 over Randy Altschuler in #ny01 absentee ballot count. 2,907 absentee ballots left to count and 1,588 contested.
Beat Me to it
Lol you beat me by about 30 seconds.  Anyway great news for Bishop  :)
[ Parent ]
Momentum all seems to be one way
Usually a good sign.
[ Parent ]
This is going to be a mess
Are there exit polls on how how indies went in this district? If they went like other, similar districts, this is going to come down to those Altshuler challenged ballots.

"Of the remaining ballots, 1,476 come from Republicans, 1,370 come from Democrats and 756 come from voters unaffiliated with a political party, Altschuler spokesman Rob Ryan said. Officials have completed counting absentee ballots from 274 of 460 election districts."

[ Parent ]
no exit poll but
  The overall registration for the district was GOP +5.97.  Considering the election day turnout was probably more favorable for Republicans, election day turnout might even be GOP +8 or 9.   No exit polls, but based off that its pretty obvious that Bishop either won Independents and/or did better with Republicans than Altschuler did with Democrats.

Also those numbers would indicate GOP +2.88 on the absentees, the overall absentee count was about GOP +3.45.  That was the breakout from the previous update (when Bishop was up 69), but at that point with 60% of the absentees counted Bishop picked up 450 votes on Altschuler, and the absentees that remained to be counted had a very similar party breakout a those that were not counted yet.  Also it didn't take into consideration the challenged ballots, and Altschuler challenged about 260 more ballots than Bishop.

[ Parent ]
Bishop lead grows according to 27east.com
27east.com is now reporting that Bishop's lead has grown to 164 votes, with slightly less than 2700 votes left to count.

http://www.27east.com/news/art...

Bishop up 206
Bishop is now up 206 votes.   1,912 absentee ballots from 125 districts remain to be counted (no word on the party breakout).  Altschuler continues to challenge more ballots 1,051-714

http://www.newsday.com/long-is...

Back of envelope math
Bishop up by 206 and holding the advantage of challenging 337 fewer ballots--assuming that Bishop benefits by 50% of the difference of the challenged ballots--Altschuler would have to get 59.78% of the remaining absentee ballots to tie.  Bishop probably benefits by more than 50% on the difference in challenged ballots, so Altschuler's chances are shrinking dramatically.
[ Parent ]
Now you beat me to it, but
good news travels fast.
[ Parent ]
Not completely out of the woods, but
Since the remaining vote is more "D" than the overall sample, I think Bishop is going to win.  That there are more than 200 challenges more from the Altschuler camp cements my opinion that Bishop will prevail.  Also, Bishop has overperformed significantly in absentee ballots--winning so far by over 500--after trailing in the non-absentee vote by 383.  From what I know (according to my wife, not much) all indicators are pointing to an extrmely narrow victory for Biship in NY-1.
So, how many of our losses were frosh and sophs
and how many were veterans since 2004 or earlier?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Two committee chairmen
Oberstar in Minnesota and Skelton in Missouri.  Since 2002 Democrats made the best of reapportionment that generally favored Republicans and gradually won back many tossup seats that spread GOP votes too thin.  Now that is all undone and the Democrats will have to push the rock up the mountain all over again, only it will be steeper than it ever was due to GOP advantages at the state level.    
[ Parent ]
Spratt too (Budget)

[ Parent ]
Defeated, served more than two terms
John Salazar (CO-03, elected 2004)
Allen Boyd (FL-02, elected 1996)
Jim Marshall (GA-08, elected 2002)
Melissa Bean (IL-08, elected 2004)
Jim Oberstar (MN-08, elected 1974)
Gene Taylor (MS-04, elected 1989)
Ike Skelton (MO-04, elected 1976)
Bob Etheridge (NC-02, elected 1996)
Earl Pomeroy (ND-AL, elected 1992)
Paul Kanjorski (PA-11, elected 1984)
John Spratt (SC-05, elected 1982)
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD-AL, elected 2004)
Lincoln Davis (TN-04, elected 2002)
Chet Edwards (TX-17, elected 1990)
Solomon Ortiz (TX-27, elected 1982)
Rick Boucher (VA-09, elected 1982)

Republicans picked up these 16, 14 open seats, 22 freshman seats, and 14 sophomore seats (assuming my math is right).

[ Parent ]
open seats
Marion Berry (AR-1)
Vic Snyder (AR-2)
Brad Ellsworth (IN-8)
Dennis Moore (KS-3)
Charlie Melancon (LA-3)
Bart Stupak (MI-1)
Paul Hodes (NH-2)
Joe Sestak (PA-7)
Bart Gordon (TN-6)
John Tanner (TN-8)
Brian Baird (WA-3)
David Obey (WI-7)
Parker Griffin (AL-5)
Alan Mollohan (WV-1)

Are these the 14 you're counting? The last 2 are a bit different with the party switch and primary and all.

On an entirely different note, I came across this:

http://hotair.com/greenroom/ar...

I'm going to start off with my prediction and the list, and then just work backwards from there. Republicans as of today are well positioned to win a net of 62-65 seats on election day.

Nice prediction.

[ Parent ]
Strike Griffith and add NY-29 (formerly Massa) and that's what I counted, yeah.

[ Parent ]
So basically, of our 2006 and 2008 gains, which were about 50 reps
we lost about 35 of them.

Well, good to know that 15 of them are still around.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Well. Democrats lost some "veterans" too
So, the net balance is, probably, in "red"...
[ Parent ]
Uh, no duh, I know that.
I was trying to get a sense of how well our newbies did.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Frankly - not especially good

[ Parent ]
I know that.
But what I'm trying to figure out was how well they did.

And I've just created a diary and spreadsheet for exactly this question.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
The difference is actually 337 more
 challenges made by Altschuler.
[ Parent ]
10
Bishop ended the day up 206, but Altschuler's camp is claiming all of the remaining votes are in Altschuler strongholds.

29/D/Male/NY-01
As per Reid Epstein Twitter:
Altschuler spox says remaining EDs for #ny01 absentees are Brookhaven 202, 207 & 209-294. All over map but includes a senior center where Altschuler should do well.
[ Parent ]
Remaining Precincts
Obama won Brookhaven 52.26-46.71, he won the precincts that are left 53.17-45.88.  Now that might overstate in somewhat because that includes my alma matter, Stony Brook University (Stony Brook students who voted absentee were probably much more likely to vote absentee for their home districts than absentee on campus)  Its 51.88-47.80 without Stony Brook.
[ Parent ]
In any event, college
areas are generally more liberal and it would appear to be a good thing that the Stony Brook area is left.
[ Parent ]
Stony Brook
I went to Stony Brook, and it is certainly liberal, Obama won it 85-13. I'm just saying that Stony Brook students who voted absentee are more than likely to have voted absentee for their home districts rather than the Stony Brook district (I was registered on campus when I went there).

Regardless with or without Stony Brook, what is left is slightly more Democratic than the district as a whole and pretty close to the portions of Brookhaven that has already been counted.

Considering that Bishop has already picked up 600 votes on Altschuler and with Altschuler challenging about 350 more than Bishop, I see no reason that Bishop doesn't continue to add to his lead.

Once the rest of the absentees are counted, and the challenged ballots are dealt with I will be surprised if the margin is less than 500.

[ Parent ]
Sounds very good to me,
and as someone who has followed this race closely, I am very much in agreement with your assessment. However I am not going to celebrate this one too soon, because I already did that on election night. :)
[ Parent ]
If and when Bishop is declared winner
I presume you plan to celebrate considering how teetering this race was.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
From Reid Epstein Twitter page
First #ny01 update of day: Bishop now leads Altschuler by 224, per Altschuler spox.
Do they finish today?
Only 1900 ballots to go.  I would think they could get that done and post the updated count today.  Then the lawyers could take over!
Bishop up 206 or 217
Some differing numbers between Bishop and Altschuler.  Bishop's spokesman has him up 206, while Altschuler spokesman puts Bishop up 217.  Altschuler continues to challenge far more ballots than bishop, including all 31 affidavit ballots from Stony Brook University.  Altschuler challenged 1,150 ballots so far to Bishop's 720.

736 left to count.

[ Parent ]
Bishop up 235
According to Reid Epstein's twitter, Bishop's spokesman says he is up 235 votes with counting finished.
Contested ballots to be dealt with next Tuesday
Altschuler's spokesman says 234 for Bishop, Bishop's spokesman says he is up 235.  2,051 challenged absentee and affidavit ballots remain up in the air and have not yet been counted  A hearing will be held next Tuesday at State Supreme Court in Riverhead on those ballots.  Of those ballots 1,261 were challenged by Altschuler, 790 by Bishop.
[ Parent ]
link
[ Parent ]
Bill Owens
He pretty much has his seat thanks to Doug Hoffman, but:

http://content.usatoday.com/co...

Rep. Bill Owens told a local newspaper in upstate New York that it is "quite possible" he might vote for Boehner for the House's top job or abstain.

Why would he say something like this? Idle noise? Publicity?

Odd
But I'll believe it if and when it actually happens. Still, I bet some of those who voted against her will abstain.
[ Parent ]
he didnt vote for Shuler
He voted for Pelosi. Which I find really really odd.
[ Parent ]
I know
Which is why I said it was odd. I could understand if he was one of those that didn't support Pelosi.
[ Parent ]
Wow
Owens is almost certainly going to get a safe House seat following redistricting, so this probably isn't an electoral survival move. Is he really that conservative?

If I were Boehner, I'd send an embassy his way (perhaps Charlie Bass or Chris Lee, GOPers from similar districts.) He probably wouldn't switch parties, but after a statement like this it's at least worth a try.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
No chance
Even less in a GOP primary. I think you mean emmisary though.
[ Parent ]
Whoops
Emmisary indeed. He'd be DOA in a GOP primary, but I'd make the effort anyway, like they did with Carney and Bright this past year. I wonder if this will earn him a primary from the left, especially if this becomes a ~60% Obama district on the new map.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Owens even supported the public option
So I can understand the "tribute" (in the Barbary Pirate sense) that he's paying to Bohner now.

Given the history of the district (and where it's been over the decades), I don't think it's possible to make it truly safe D (i.e. > D+10, and keep it north of the Thruway - and outside of urban Syracuse/Albany). Perhaps some of the redistricting mappers can prove me wrong, but the Adirondack region has always been anti-Albany and anti-government. (They were anti-Kelo decades before that Supreme Court decision.)

While '12 will likely be better overall for Ds, Owens may very well face a tough race next election with a serious 3rd party C candidate likely out of the picture.

[ Parent ]
Nope, no way.
Traficant did that and they stripped him of all committee assignments and seniority.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
NY-01: Bishop Leads Seesawing Count by 16 Votes | 47 comments

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