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NY-25: With Count Complete, Buerkle Has 576-vote Lead

by: DavidNYC

Sun Nov 21, 2010 at 6:05 PM EST


Not unexpected, but miserable news nonetheless:

Republican Ann Marie Buerkle holds a 567-vote lead over U.S. Rep. Dan Maffei in the 25th Congressional District race after Wayne County election officials released their unofficial tally of absentee votes today.

Buerkle added 269 votes to her lead after getting 790 votes to Maffei's 521 in the absentee vote tally in Wayne County. Elections officials in Wayne County completed the tally today and posted the results on their Web site [PDF].

With those votes in, the total unofficial vote count for the entire district stands at 104,374 for Buerkle and 103,807 for Maffei, who is seeking his second term in Congress.

Maffei can still ask for a hand recount of all ballots, and there are some other challenged ballots whose status has not been resolved yet. But unless something truly miraculous happens, this one is all but over. Truly a terrible loss, and one that few saw coming, but we can hope that Maffei stages a comeback some time soon.
DavidNYC :: NY-25: With Count Complete, Buerkle Has 576-vote Lead
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NY-25: With Count Complete, Buerkle Has 576-vote Lead | 75 comments
Ehh we'll live
NY/PA will be fertile ground fro some takebacks in 2012 even after re-districting.  Its not like Maffei winning actually strengthens Dems in this district in any way.  A better candidate in 2012 will win this in a walk.

This seems to go to the wrong side

Well, I hope Maffei runs again in 2012, and if they are someone better, the primary is the right moment for see it.
Any clue as to what went wrong?
Was he just asleep on the job?
There was substantial ticket-splitting upstate
My estimate is that both Gillibrand and Schumer won every Congressional district (or all but one), and by healthy margins. But some voters were determined to punish House Democrats.  
[ Parent ]
The year went wrong.
Suspect Number One is the year itself, considering how many other blue district/state Dems went down in addition to Maffei (e.g. Patrick Murphy, Solomon Ortiz, Jim Oberstar, Paul Kanjorski, Russ Feingold, etc.) and how many others had close calls (e.g. Raul Grijalva, Jim Costa, Sanford Bishop, Patty Murray, etc.).

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
TX-27 is R+2

Some people get surprised by the defeat of S Ortiz, but it is not more rare than other results in R+ districts. I know not the reason but a big majority take this as safer than it was.
[ Parent ]
That
margin was probably inflated thanks to Bush being the president. He took a substantial amount of Hispanics in 2004. Just like how the PVI's of the Illinois CD's are inflated because Obama's a native Illinoisan.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
^^^^^^THIS. Yes TX and IL PVIs...
...are inflated for the dominant parties in those states due to home-state grade inflation for, respectively, Dubya and Obama.

For TX-27, Obama's 53-46 win there is far more representative of "normal" for that district than Dubya's performances there.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Still, Obama's number shows it's a pure tossup district
Despite its large number of Hispanic voters, TX-27 votes right at the national average. Which means a decent Republican could hold it, although Farenthold probably can't unless the district lines change significantly in his favor.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
I
still hope Farenthold starts the congressional pillow fight caucus.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
The problem in TX-27 and statewide for Dems is no field effort, since...
...it's not a battleground state.

At least in 2008 the primary battle incentivized Obama to play there in the spring.

But in 2012 even that won't be there.

So I don't know if OFA will do anything there, beyond making its tools available to Democrats there.  But an actual Obama campaign effort won't happen.

What that means is that Hispanic turnout stays low, unless aggressive local field drives it up.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Or we could take a page out of Rove's playbook
and put on some ballot questions that will provoke our side to turn out.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Hm. What could make Hispanic voters turn out?
Maybe an initiative requiring certain state services to be fully bilingual? Or something to do with immigration?

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Is that even possible?
And if it were, what would that issue be? The real genius of what they did with the gay marriage bans was that probably didn't turn off the center even as they energized their base--if they didn't gain some votes from the center. I'm not sure what issues we have that would work for us like gay marriage bans worked for them.

I also don't know if it's really necessary. As I keep saying, there's a lot of people in a state like Texas that simply don't vote, in addition to the million that aren't registered. I don't know if they aren't very different from the people who are voting, but it'd be strange if all of them were similar. I don't have an easy answer of how to turn a million or so people who don't regularly vote, but it's probably easier to mine the available statistical information and then also register new voters than to play games with ballot measures. After all, the coalition would be pretty hollow.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I don't know
if there will be an aggressive effort in Texas, but I wouldn't be as quick as you do dismiss the idea. As long as he's not fighting to stay alive, he'll probably want to expand the map again. The only state that is a true question mark at this point is Indiana, but as others have said, it looks like he wants to try to keep the state. You could make an argument for North Carolina, but like Virginia, it has a lot of black voters, and the demographic changes amongst white voters are happening there quickly like they are in Virginia--or at least quicker than they are in other states. And at worst, states like Colorado, Ohio, and Wisconsin will still be swing states.

But at best? Well, if it looks like he's starting from a position of strength--if it looks like he'll not only win Wisconsin, but win it by double digits--he'll want to expand the map, as I said. That puts Georgia and Arizona on the map, and probably Montana and the Dakotas as well. After that, what else is left? West Virginia? Tennessee? Arkansas? The only other state that comes to mind is Texas.

There are a lot of reasons why it wouldn't work, but there are a lot why it would work. There are even more why it'd be beneficial for the House and Senate candidates.

I think, or maybe hope, that they are trying to gauge how powerful his fund raising strength will be and basing what to do in Texas on that. If it looks like he can rack up the totals like last time early on, I'd expect them to start spending money in the state at the beginning of the year. Unless there's something about voter contacts and ground games I don't realize, I wouldn't be surprised if the campaign spends only a little more this time around than they did last time. After all, the initial investment, especially in states like Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia, has already been made. It's not as if all of the work from the last campaign disappeared. And while the Republicans are sure to be strong in some states, perhaps even better than us, their candidate probably starts off at a disadvantage. In other words, the Obama campaign could start organizing in the state in the beginning of the year, way before the Republicans even have their nominee, and then continue on investing in Texas and other states just as the Republicans are kicking into high gear.

I know it wouldn't be cheap, but the Obama campaign could easily drop $15 million into the state each month from January until June without breaking much of a sweat. That's probably way more than is necessary at first, since it wouldn't be running ads right away, but considering they spent considerably less than half that in North Carolina during the campaign--I read $25 million, but I am not absolutely sure--it goes to show you that while it wouldn't be cheap, it's not that expensive, especially if you get started right away. And if they start early enough, the Republicans will face the choice of either spending a lot more late in the game to meet the Democrats' efforts, or just get left in the dust. Either way, we come out ahead.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
They won't play in Texas unless a landslide win looks plausible......
If someone like Palin or Gingrich looks strong in pre-Iowa Caucus polling or after the first few GOP caucuses and primaries, I can see OFA moving the goalposts and treating TX as well as a few other unlikely states as battlegrounds.

But if Obama is in Bush '04 condition against a strong GOP nominee, they won't do that.  All the money, even if the campaign raises a billion, will focus on the battleground states, probably the same 17 as last time.

I do agree that OFA will treat all Obama '08 states as battlegrounds at least until well into summer 2012.  You just don't write off a state you already proved you can win.  And they might still look at places like MT and AZ depending on just how strong or vulnerable Obama looks as 2012 progresses.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I agree.
I could see them adding Georgia and Arizona simply because of how close they were last time (close being relative in Arizona's case, with McCain at the top of the ticket), but Texas won't be on that list if he looks vulnerable. But if he looks decent, let alone strong, and the fund raising is there, there's no reason not to do it. Resources aren't finite, but in a sense, devoting time and money to a state like Texas doesn't really take away from efforts in Ohio or Florida, except for the fact that the candidate can't be in two places at once. As I've said, the amount of money he can spend is essentially limitless, because he could raise far more than anyone would ever need for a campaign and his donors wouldn't come close to maxing themselves out.

I'd also wonder how much outside groups would help if the investment is made in the state, assuming it's legal. (Do any states, like Texas, have any laws that make it illegal for a NYPIRG-like group to register voters?) It wouldn't surprise me to see a vigorous effort from groups on our side if the Obama campaign started dropping money into the state.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Didn't know that.
Obama won it by about the same margin as his national totals.  So, Bush must have overperformed there to get it to R+2.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Nate Silver's Partisan Propensity Index, however, has it as quite Democratic
See here, by his measure it's the most Democratic district with a Republican CPVI because of its low socioeconomic status. PPI predicts in an open race in a neutral year, it would have a 95% chance of electing a Democrat.
[ Parent ]
That doesn't account for registration
Much of the Hispanic population here is not eligible to vote. They will not generally be wealthy, so if you take them out of the equation it's not quite as low down the ladder wealthwise.
[ Parent ]
Now Rochester is represented by 3 GOPers and Louise Slaughter again
The sad news is that while Lee and Reed are in line with Reynolds and Houghton/Kuhl, Buerkle is way to the right of where Jim Walsh was. Redistricting should be able to take care of her though.
Redistricting
Why do you say that? Isn't the State Senate going to have a Republican majority?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
I think that if they throw one GOP member to the wolves, it will be Burkhele.
She's too conservative for the area and they can shore up some of the other members (Hanna, Lee, Reed).
[ Parent ]
Yes, especially b/c NY is losing a seat, and...
...the state Dems might hold firm on insisting a Republican, instead of a Democrat, has to go, or at least doing something like forcing Buerkle and Owens together in a purple district where Owens is a better fit.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
looks like it might be tied
and in any case, Democrats overall have the upper hand and Republicans should be realistic enough to know they can't hold this district long term and the Syracuse area is going against them.  
[ Parent ]
Recount questions
Does anyone know whether Maffei is considering asking for a recount? Who pays in that event?
It won't matter
A 500 vote margin in a congressional district is next to impossible to overcome, he could fight it, but it'd be futile (IMHO).

It's definitely a shame though.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
So, hopefully this means Maffei for Congress 2012


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Maffei 2012
Most likely an incumbent protection plan will be adopted for 2012.  If 2 seats are lost, and each taking a hit, there is no room for setting up a district for Maffei.  

I did some work on a 27 NY seat plan, and the only way I can see it being done is by cutting the county up between adjacent R districts.

A 28 seat plan would possibly try to set up a free fight somewhere upstate.  The somewhere could easily be for Maffei to fight out, hopefully not a fight in the primary and the general election.

Joe Cooper

[ Parent ]
You can't protect all of these upstate Republicans.
Four of the six districts that will be represented by Republicans come next year were Obama districts, including this one, which even Kerry won.  The other two districts gave Obama 46% and 48% of the vote apiece.  You can't shore them all up...

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Upstate NY
IMG]

URL=IMG][/URL]

CD18 Obama 58-40 McCain.  Democratic district eliminated in Downstate. I eliminated CD18 there so that CD05 and CD18, both yellow, did not touch. Monroe County.

CD19 Obama 48-51 McCain R winner of 19, unsure where in Westchester County she lives. Lines will have to be adjusted to include her home. Monroe County.

CD20 Obama 51-47 McCain Incumbent from present 24[I think he lives in Utica]. Oneida, Jefferson, Oswego Counties and half of the City of Syracuse.

CD21 Obama 58-41 McCain. Albany and lower Hudson River

CD22 Obama 57-41 McCain. Tompkins, Ulster, Duchess Counties.

CD23 Obama 56-42 McCain Adjusted to include D areas of old  
CD20, upper Hudson River, northern tier of counties

CD24 Obama 46-52 McCain. The old CD29 with a lot of the old CD24

CD25 Obama 51-47 McCain. 1/2 of City of Syracuse and midstate areas

CD26 Obama 45-53 McCain. Remains R. western NY

CD27 Obama 63-25 McCain Buffalo

Joe Cooper

[ Parent ]
map
Photobucket

Joe Cooper
[ Parent ]
Please don't make Rochester Republican!
I would just combine Rochester with NY-25--makes the district pretty safe Democratic.
[ Parent ]
Rochester looks like it's safe D
The yellow district there looks to be NY-28, and would be safe for Louise Slaughter and whatever Democrat succeeds her.

This is a good, very realistic map. One upstate incumbent is bound to lose their seat, and it appears you chose Gibson, the fresman from NY-20. Makes sense. Owens and Hayworth appear to be the big winners, while Buerkle's district looks a little better for her and Hanna, Hinchey, Tonko, Reed, and Lee all look like their districts are about the same. Good work!

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
You're right
I misread it. Apologies to Joe Cooper--this looks like a map I would draw.
[ Parent ]
Like I said,
it's an unnecessarily awkward map, and with Democrats still having solid control of the state house and the governorship, and near control of the state senate, they have the upper hand in dealing with redistricting. Senate Republicans do not want their districts being redrawn by the courts, and the way Democrats have dominated Republicans in NY of late, this election aside, should make them cautious. We will see a simpler, more favorable map than that for Democrats.  
[ Parent ]
I think it's a fair map, with a slight D edge
The Democrats are eliminating a Republican's seat (NY-20) and protecting all 5 of their upstate incumbents (Higgins, Slaughter, Owens, Tonko, and Hinchey.) They also draw Obama districts for two Republican incumbents (Buerkle and Hanna) and don't really make Lee or Reed and safer in the progress. The only real GOP winner of this is Nan Hayworth, and even her district is up for grabs. I could see the Democratic incumbents asking Albany to draw a map like this so they know they will be secure, rather than risk letting the courts draw them in a 50/50 district with a Republican,

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
It's unnecessarily choppy
and Democrats won't put Syracuse in with Oneida and Jefferson. While I also eliminated Gibson's seat I kept the lines cleaner and didn't have a strange little tendril of Owen's district reaching all the way through the Hudson River Valley.  
[ Parent ]
NY upstate
If it werent for the factor of incumbancy, and each party were to lose a seat, the ideal would be ceding NY20 and NY23 to Republican seats, and redrawing NY25 to Syracuse City and Tompkins county, moving NY22 to take in Duchess County.  The NY23 on the Hudson River not only is marginally safe D, but weakens NY21[albany] back to a marginally safe D in order to supply votes to the new NY23

But this would involve both the Ds backstabbing Owens, but also the Rs backstabbing the winner of NY25.

Joe Cooper

[ Parent ]
My map has them giving on Buerke
Albany Republicans have to realize they don't have a future with her or a future holding any Syracuse based district.

My map made Lee and Reed rather safe, and shored up Hanna and Hayworth considerably, while making Higgins safe, redefining Slaughter's district, kicking Buerke to the curb, and helping out Owens a little, while not endangering the Albany based seat in the least. It worked out brilliantly, if I may show my lack of modesty. I've drawn so many maps of NY that I am exceptionally familiar with how it works. Anyway, I'd post it today, but I'm terribly sick and out of it, so it will have to wait.  

[ Parent ]
NY
Ive tried drawing a 28 seat upstate.  It is even more difficult, and problematic, for the Republicans in the Syracuse area than my 27 seat [above] was. I ended up with the two Syracuse districts at 53% Obama, which would be a perpetual batttle for both Republicans in the area, tho it would not be safe or likely Democratic either.  I agree that the Republicans would be best off ceding the Syracuse district. They will probably ask that the D's give up Owen in return.  

Joe Cooper
[ Parent ]
Not Owens
That's too much to ask. I think helping Hanna, Lee, and Reed is a fair enough trade off. Democrats will not toss Owens under the bus. He's held on this year, and started building a solid base in the northern end of New York, helping concentrate a Democratic trend there.  
[ Parent ]
Nan Hayworth
lives in Mount Kisco, it's like north-centralish Westchester.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Here's what I came up with for an incumbent protection map a few weeks ago
Assuming one seat is lost. It gives the Republicans 4 solid seats and 1 seat that would lean to them, and makes the current Dems safe.

Blue - The greater Buffalo area (and Niagara Falls), drawn for Brian Higgins. 64-35 Obama.
Green - Drawn for Chris Lee, 53-45 McCain.
Red - Drawn for newly-elected Tom Reed. 54-44 McCain.
Purple - Ended the silly Slaughtermander; Louise Slaughter can get elected here fine. 60-39 Obama.
Grey - Parts of NY-25 and NY-24 combined. Buerkle and Hanna fight it out, and it's a swingy district at 49-49 McCain (went for McCain by about 2,000 votes).
Yellow - Bill Owens' district adds Syracuse. 60-39 Obama.
Dark Teal - Maurice Hinchey gets another gerrymandered district. 61-37 Obama.
Light Teal - For the guy that defeated Murphy... Gibson, I think? 51-47 McCain.
Purple - Tonko's district, 60-38 Obama.
Magenta - Nan Hayworth goes here, 53-46 McCain.
Green - Nita Lowey goes here, 62-37 Obama.
Light Purple - Eliot Engel's district, 65-35 Obama.

[ Parent ]
Some serious problems with that map
Why would you place Syracuse, a rust beltish city in Central NY, with a collection of small towns, farms, and small colleges in the northern reaches of the state? Plus, if your saving Gibson's seat, there isn't any reason to make it that strange looking, I'm bothered several by unnecessary sprawl and entanglement, not to mention Paul Tonko's base is in eastern Montgomery county-western Schenectady, meaning you completely drew out his political base. Plus you drew Chris Gibson in with the new Albany district, and simply tons of superfluous county splitting.  
[ Parent ]
Question
I know you guys like Maffei for his ideology and character, but why are you so anxious to run him again in 2012? He came up short in a Kerry district in 2006 when Arcuri, Gillibrand, and Hall all won in Bush districts, and after winning against mediocre opposition in 2008, he lost to a B-lister this year. Wouldn't Democrats be better off running someone new, of similar ideology, who might be a better campaigner and lock this district down in 2012 and beyond? There must be a fairly strong bench in the Syracuse area.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
I agree with you. Maffei should join the Never on the ballot club again.
And Burkele or whatever her name is was not even a B lister. Were Republicans even spending here? She was a C lister.


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Karl
Rove's Crossroads were spending here so they definitely smelled blood in the water here.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Rove probably made the difference
Rove was all over Upstate NYS like white on rice in the last month of the campaign.

He strategy seemed to be to go after targets that he thought were caught napping or contests that were supposedly lower tier.  In addition to pouring tens of thousands into Maffei's district his group blanketed the airwaves in the southern tier 22nd district where Maurice Hinchey defeated a nobody by only four points in a district Obama carried by 20.

[ Parent ]
You have to wonder
if they were polling any of these districts, and if they were, how extensively they were doing it. It's not a cheap thing to do, and if you aren't going with someone known for being good, you could end up buying garbage, but it seems like a good way to make sure your money is being well spent.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Smart
at least someone learned from Howard Dean's 50 state strategy. It helped he could have 5 billionares fund his 527's coffers but in wave elections its best to cast out the net and see what you catch. Now Rove should hire some private investigators to dig up some dirt on Steele to remove him fro the RNC.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
You know, now that I think about it,
if you are right, Rove's strategy kind of supports what I have been saying about expanding the map into states where Democrats might have a working coalition, like Texas or Georgia. It might be slightly different, because Texas hasn't been electing any Democrats statewide for years, whereas upstate New York will easily elect Republicans if they want to. The fundamentals need to be working in our favor, but at the same time, expanding the map into places where one might not normally expect people to go can yield impressive dividends.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
You're right about expanding the map
I think when the national tide is flowing your way it can't hurt to go all in.  From Rove's point of view, if Hinchey won NY-22, then so what?  At least there is more turf to force the Dems to defend.  Same thing with Maffei in NY-25.  The GOP (and their friends) had the resources so it would be silly to not make a play, especially since the GOP held the seat as recently as 2008 (even though it's clearly trending away overall).

Dems should absolutely try for southern states in 2012.  The only thing is that there probably has to be at least a moderate breeze at their backs for the GOP to get heartburn over it.  If the national polling is close, like within a few points, the GOP probably will be happy to let the Dems spend money in Texas and Georgia.  It's sort of like how Pennsylvania always seems to be a gigantic money pit for Republicans in presidential years.

[ Parent ]
That sort of thinking
goes both ways. The thing is, Pennsylvania is a swing state. It might not be as consistently close (i.e. within five points or less) like Ohio or Florida, but it wouldn't surprise me to see the Republicans win Pennsylvania but the Democrats still get over 200 votes in the Electoral College. It's no more of a waste of money for the Republicans than Ohio is for the Democrats, even if it consistently looks like the girl who got away.

If could be a money burn in the end, but the Republicans face the choice of either dumping money into the state or letting the Democrats gain a lot of ground. And if they respond too late, it could be money that is truly wasted. Or, if the Democrats start spending a lot of money very early on, they could force the Republicans respond with equal force, which would deprive them of the resources and time needed in other states. It's somewhat different, although not entirely, if they match our side dollar for dollar.

Of course, because it's a swing state, there's only so much ground for each side to make up each time. That's probably not the case in states like Georgia or Texas for the Democrats, or for New York for the Republicans, where they don't contest nearly as many races as they do in other states.

I'm actually more interested in doing this as a way to help Senate and House candidates. A national campaign with the financial strength that Obama's campaign has can simply spend far more money than a Senate candidate can spend, let alone a House candidate, but many campaigns besides Obama's will benefit. There will always be some ticket splitters, but if the Democrats are focusing in registering and mobilizing their voters, I don't see how that will help the Republicans much. Texas is the state that I use for an example because it's got so many attractive qualities, but the same thinking probably works for others as well. Unless there's some sort of legal reason why this can't happen, it wouldn't surprise me for Democrats to have a leg up on the Senate races in Georgia, Texas, and South Carolina in 2014 if Obama made a significant investment in the states in 2010.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I think that depends on whether he's the best candidate in 2012
or if there is in fact someone better. Do you have any suggestions? I don't know their local politics well enough to have suggestions, so therefore, I can't pass judgment on your point. If this were as obvious as 3-strikes-and-he's-out Dan Seals, I'd agree with you without qualification.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Driscoll
Matt Driscoll is far stronger.
[ Parent ]
Tell us more about him
Does he have an elected position currently?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Mayor of Syracuse
From 2001-2009.  He was mentioned as a possible lieutenant governor when it looked like Paterson was going to run for reelection.  
[ Parent ]
People seem to forget
that all these seats in New York that the Democrats picked up in 2006 and 2008 were drawn to elect Republicans, still have pretty strong Republican ties at the local level, and many of them have a Republican registration advantage (particularly NY-20, 23, and 24; NY-19 and 25 are pretty much evenly split). Even though many of these voters have moved to supporting Democrats in statewide contests, they're still sending Republicans to the state legislature and, apparently, are still willing to send Republicans to the House. The fact that Kerry or Obama won these districts underplays the Republicans' strength in these areas. It's no surprise that many of the seats fell in two wave years for Democrats, since that's what happens to marginal seats, but it's also not that big a surprise that so many fell back to their traditional voting patterns in a Republican wave year.
[ Parent ]
In 2006
Arcuri was running in an open seat, Gillibrand was running against a guy caught for a DWI after boozing with college kids, and Hall... well, Hall outperformed. That one was a pretty big shocker. But Walsh was easily the best incumbent as between Sweeney, Kelly and himself.

As for Maffei "coming up short" in 2006, well, I think it's always a very big mistake to read a lot into narrow losses (or victories). It's like winning a baseball game 6-5 - a single bad hop and you've lost that game 7-6 instead. Pound the other side 8-0, though, and you've clearly outplayed them. Well, Maffei's 2006 race was manifestly in the former category - he came up just 3,000 votes short, less than 2%. On the other hand, when he ran in an open seat in 2008, he won by 13%.

What's more, the D-Trip spent about $450K on Maffei in 2006, $790K on Gillibrand, and an eye-popping $1.9 million on Arcuri. And remember how narrowly Arcuri escaped in 2008, even though the NRCC had spent $0 on Richard Hanna that year.

Finally, Hall and Arcuri both lost by six this year. Maffei's final margin will be less than half a percent. So I think you are really over-reading what happened in 2006. And I think what happened this year had a lot more to do with the year than candidate quality (on either side). A lot of GOP B-Listers (and even some C-Listers) managed to win.

[ Parent ]
i was in syracuse for halloween
And maffei was all over tv.  If he slept through the campaign it was hard to notice.   I didn't see or hear buerkle's name that whole weekend.
[ Parent ]
I'm
thinking was just too strong for Maffei. If Syracuse wasn't in the district, he would of gone down big. Just look at Murphy and Arcuri. They knew they had big targets on their back and campaigned hard (or in Arcuri's case harder than 2008) and still lost.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
They spent $1.9 million
on Arcuri in 2006? Holy shit! I went to college in Maurice Hinchey's district, which was right near Acuri's old district, and I remember seeing ads repeatedly. But still, it's not really a suburb of New York City, so unless it crosses into some Pennsylvania media market that I don't know about, or they spent a lot on ground game, I can't imagine what the hell they used all of that money for?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Thanks
There's definitely an argument for his as well, I just wanted to pose the question and see how people here felt.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Tell me 3 things about Syracuse
Most people can't.  So its hard to firm it up as any type of district as its a major university in the middle of a fairly republican area.  Depending on school age voters is never an easy strategy.
[ Parent ]
Syracuse
1. There's a big university there. (You mentioned that one already though.)
2. It snows a lot there. (And I say this a guy from the snow capital of southern New England.)
3. It's an eastern outpost of the Rust Belt.

If you were willing to give up on NY-24 and didn't have NY-23 to protect, you could always make sure the Syracuse district included some of the other college towns in the area and smaller cities like Geneva and Seneca Falls instead of outer Rochester suburbs and Wayne County.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
Two more facts
Joe Biden went to law school at Syracuse.
It's home of the NY State Fair.
[ Parent ]
Rep. Walsh was a tough opponent though
Fairly moderate with good constituent service and a good fit for upstate NY. The fact Maffei almost beat him shows that he was a good candidate. I think he just got swept away because the Democrats didn't show up. I think he should give it a second try but i'd be fine with a new candidate as well.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Alternative scenario for NY-25
Depending on how its drawn, possibly Acrui and Maffei might be located in the same district, since Dewitt is not in Syracuse proper, since most likely an upstate district have to be eliminated.  My guess is NY-29 will merge with Lee's.

It's all horseshoes and hand grenades until the congressional districts are redrawn and released.  

NY-29

any idea what areas are gaining/losing population?
Is  it NYC or upstate?

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
IIRC, it's upstate.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Long Island is stagnant
and Upstate is losing population.  The City (the Five Boroughs plus Westchester) and population along the Hudson have grown slightly, iirc.

The population loss is in western Upstate.  The various city cores there have enough Democrats to ensure that the seat lost will be Republican.

The only way to make districts with 10% more population on Long Island is to carve one existing one up or move it across the Sound.  An incumbent protection gerrymander probably means most of NY-2 and NY-3 get merged.

[ Parent ]
I've personally found
that eliminating a Republican district in the western tier is not practical. I eliminated one upstate district, and one Long Island district. The Long Island district eliminated certainly wasn't NY-02. Do you really think state Democrats are going to toss in a member of their leadership with King?
[ Parent ]
Upstate for sure
Especially Western NY

NY-29
[ Parent ]
NY24
I think NY24 is the natural district to give up the ghost. It can be used to shore up R's in NY29,  and an R district based on Owens, to be a swing or tossup.  Anyway, that is my next try for a 28 member delegation.

What is the latest on NY losing 1 or 2 members?

Joe Cooper

[ Parent ]
NY-25: With Count Complete, Buerkle Has 576-vote Lead | 75 comments

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