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SSP Daily Digest: 11/18

by: Crisitunity

Thu Nov 18, 2010 at 3:56 PM EST


AK-Sen: Is there anyone other than Joe Miller left who wants Joe Miller to keep contesting the Senate race? The state GOP organization is now saying it "stands ready to embrace Lisa Murkowski" as the winner of the race, despite her not having won its primary. I'm sure they were secretly ready all along to do so... recall that the person issuing the statement, state party chair Randy Ruedrich, was the guy that Joe Miller was trying to orchestrate a palace coup against, which got him fired from his Fairbanks borough job. I can't imagine much love lost between Ruedrich and Miller.

IN-Sen: Richard Lugar, who just announced that he's running for re-election, is laying down a pretty big marker (and one that probably helped convince him to run again). He's out with an internal poll from American Viewpoint that, while it doesn't specifically poll the 2012 GOP Senate primary, shows him with huge approvals, though apparently among all voters and not just registered Republicans. He's at 66% favorable. Two of his potential GOP opponents, state Treasurer Richard Mourdock and state Sen. Mike Delph, have faves of 14% and 7% each.

ND-Sen, NM-Sen: This Politico article doesn't actually contain any hard facts that are newsworthy, but it does contain one alarming sentence, that both Kent Conrad and Jeff Bingaman are "weighing retirement" (without anything beyond that). Conrad and Bingaman, though both long-timers, are still in their early 60s. Buried deep in the article is also a throwaway line that Jon Kyl is also the subject of retirement "speculation."

NJ-Sen: That tea party push to have a recall election for Bob Menendez (despite, of course, the universally accepted legal principle that you can't recall federal officials) seems to have finally died, courtesy of the New Jersey Supreme Court. I'm just surprised the case rose that far through the courts before, y'know, someone thought to crack open their 1L Con Law textbook, but the bright side is that every dollar right-wingers spend on pointless appellate legal fees is a dollar not spent on actually electing somebody. Menendez is up for a regularly scheduled election in 2012, anyway.

NV-Sen: Everyone seems in a fit of instant nostalgia for Sharron Angle today, with the revelation that in the course of the campaign she said "Sometimes dictators have good ideas" (in reference to Augusto Pinochet and privatized pension systems), and the leaked release of the ad that she cut that never got released, probably because it takes a minute to make a point that should take five seconds and because the 70s-disaster-flick-style overacting overshadows any possible message. (You can click here to see the ad, bearing in mind that it opens in Windows Media Player.) The real news that got leaked today that might impact the 2012 race, though, is that none other than John Ensign helped Sharron Angle prep for her debate by playing the part of Harry Reid. I wonder if that'll be the last nail in the coffin for the reputed Reid/Ensign non-aggression pact?

RI-Sen: Add one more potential name to the roster for a Republican challenger to Sheldon Whitehouse: the state's GOP chair, Giovanni Cicione (who has been encouraging outgoing Gov. Don Carcieri to run, as well as floating his own name as a last resort), is touting John Robitaille as a possible candidate. Robitaille (Carcieri's former communications director) performed above expectations in the gubernatorial race in which he was supposed to be a sacrificial lamb, finishing second (though helped along by Frank Caprio's last-minute implosion).

VA-Sen (pdf): PPP's Virginia Senate poll had a GOP primary portion that just got released separately; right now, George Allen is the consensus pick, although that may have more to do with the ex-Gov. and ex-Sen.'s broad name rec compared with the rest of the field. Allen is at 46, with the very-unlikely-to-run Eric Cantor at 18, right-wing AG Ken Cuccinelli at 16, Lt. Gov. Bill Boling and ex-Rep. Tom Davis both at 4, and state Del. Bob Marshall (who almost sneaked into the 2008 Senate nomination) at 2.

NY-01, NY-25: Good news in the 1st, bad news in the 25th. Tim Bishop has made up some ground, as of the second day of absentee counting. Bishop picked up 108 votes on Randy Altschuler, cutting Altschuler's lead down to 275, and that's with Smithtown, Altschuler's strongest area, having almost entirely reported. Bishop's strongest turf is East Hampton, which will begin counting tomorrow. Ann Marie Buerkle, however, gained a small amount of ground in the 25th, contrary to expectations. Her lead is up to 824 votes, after a batch of small batch (230) of challenged ballots from Monroe County got opened and counted. The county to watch, though, will be Onondaga County, which is Dan Maffei's base and where 7,000 absentees are yet to be counted.

Redistricting: There are three different redistricting articles out today that are worth a read. One is about Texas, where it seems like the GOP is extended about as far as it can go (thanks to victories in TX-23 and likely TX-27); compounding the problem there is something that I've been pointing out for years, which is that at least two, possibly three, of its expected four new seats are going to have to be VRA seats, seeing as how the vast majority of Texas's growth in the past decade has been among Hispanics. Trying to limit the creation of new Hispanic-majority seats will only make it harder to protect Quico Canseco and Blake Farenthold.

There's also a piece looking at Nevada, more specifically the fight within the Dem-controlled legislature about for whom to tailor NV-04 (which will probably be a Dem-leaning suburban district, conceding a GOP-leaning NV-03 to Joe Heck). Both state Senate majority leader Steven Horsford and new state Assembly speaker John Oceguera have their eyes on the new seat. Finally, there are questions in Florida about just who's behind the lawsuit, fronted by a bipartisan coalition of Mario Diaz-Balart and Corrine Brown, to stop implementation of Amendment 6, the one bright spot from Florida on Election Day (a new initiative that makes gerrymandering more difficult). The Orlando Sentinel traces the money trail back to a number of state legislators' groups, including one led by GOP state Sen. Don Gaetz, the guy who... big surprise... is tasked with leading redistricting for the state Senate.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 11/18
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Conrad retiring would be BAD
Whoever ultimately becomes DSCC chair - Bennet, Murray, whoever - needs to keep retirements to an absolute minimum.

We might be able to survive a Webb retirement. And in a presidential year, we could probably hold the NM seat even with a Bingaman retirement, but it'll force us to spend a lot of money we'll need in other places.

But a Conrad retirement could be bad. Especially in a presidential year. Who could possibly run to succeed him? Earl Pomeroy?  


I agree

If Conrad retires, that mean 1 senate seat less. I agree about the work of the future DSCC chair. Minimum retirements as rule for good results. Still I understand he thinks about it because I think Conrad and Nelson have the worst potential challengers.

And I think a retirement of Bingaman would be a bad new. He has not as strong potential challengers but I think he is enough young for continue. I have fear about the alternative.

If some incumbent is in a competitive race and retires, surely the seat would be for the republicans, and if some incumbent safe retires, they are a decent risk of create a new competitive race.

I think the democrats only can assume these retirements:

1. J Lieberman. I wish Lieberman retires. I feel less safe in a three way race. Maybe time for offer a job to Lieberman in the administration and if he accept not primary him as hard as it is possible.

2. D Akaka. If Akaka retires and is replaced by a strong candidate like can be E Shinseki. Obama and Shinseki would be a strong tickett for Hawaii.

3. Maybe J Webb. But only if T Kain run. And if J Webb wish to run for governor.

4. Maybe D Feinstein. Maybe. But seems she want not to retire.


[ Parent ]
My biggest doubt is about WI-Sen and Herb Kohl

Without see some numbers I can not tell what would be better for keep this seat in democratic hands.

[ Parent ]
Kohl's seat
Feingold clearly was told by Kohl that Kohl's out otherwise he'd never ever mention 2012, he's too classy to push Kohl out. Kohl is 75, 77 by the time 2012. Does he have 6 more years in him? Doubt it.

I think Feingold in 2012 beats almost any Republican challenger.

100 bucks down that Tommie Thompson gets mentioned multiple times, starts a PAC, everyone thinks he's going to run, and then doesn't.


[ Parent ]
If Kohl is really going to retire,
I hope Feingold is prepared to do whatever he didn't do, or do whatever he did do better, in this past campaign. He didn't lose by that much, especially considering the strength of the Republicans this year, but a loss is still a loss. I don't know if his issue was the style in which he campaigned or simply being outran by Johnson on the ground level, but if he wants to run, he needs to figure out a way to not only win, but win by a convincing margin.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Why Feingold
Why all these retreads? We do have a bench in WI after all.

[ Parent ]
Feingold is a pretty cool guy
I really wish he won and Barbara Boxer lost instead.

But he's an honest liberal and a smart dude. The country could use more people like him.


[ Parent ]
I have no feelings one way or another
about Feingold being the candidate. I just meant that if he does run, he considers what he did right and wrong last time, more than other candidates.

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Lieberman in the Obama Administration?
No matter how much President Obama seems to prefer quiet diplomacy with his political opponents to uncompromising conflict, I find it hard to imagine him putting such a turncoat in the Administration. Lieberman tried as hard as possible to defeat his party's presidential candidate, to the extent of assassinating Candidate Obama's character. He deserves to get kicked out of the Senate on his ass, as far as the Administration should be concerned.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
yes you are right about Lieberman

I mean something like ambassador in some country what Lieberman like. Not a first level office.

I mean something for have Lieberman out of his seat since the first day of Malloy as governor, for have a new democratic incumbent in Connecticut since January (2011).


[ Parent ]
I think you missed the point
Abgin, you missed the whole point of his response. No way will Obama ever, ever, ever offer Lieberman a government positon. Lieberman campaigned with McCain!

Lieberman is gone one way or the other. Obama doesn't need to throw him a bone.


[ Parent ]
Nor should be throw him a bone.
While Lieberman is actually on our side on a lot of issues, his back stabbing, self promoting ways should have soured him amongst pretty much any Democrats. What sort of special skills does he have that someone else doesn't have? If he had any, then there might be a reason to use him, if there was a spot that needed to be filled. Otherwise, they should kick him out the door and never look back. Hell, Obama would probably infuriate his base and look like a huge pussy if he appointed Lieberman to anything besides rest room attendant.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Good point

Very good.

[ Parent ]
well

primary Lieberman was not the word, I mean challenge him since the democratic party.

Cause of all that, I would like a strong senator as DSCC chair, because many of the senators what run are in their first term and would respect more a more veteran DSCC chair.


[ Parent ]
ND-Sen
I want to see how Earl Pemoroy does in polls. He would be a much better senator then Conrad if he were able to win (he probably can't though, considering he just lost reelection)

if pomeroy wants to
he might have a shot.  one, it might be a better year, two when the race is higher profile, people might pay attention more and be less likely to vote instinctively R.  somewhat like how republicans did poorly (at least not well enough to win) in Illinois and Colorado up ballot (i count being unable to hold hick to a plurality as doing poorly).  he's almost certainly the best dem if conrad retires.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Earl Pomeroy is better than a joke candidate...
He may be the best we can do if Conrad actually retires, but he still isn't a canidate with particularly high odds of winning.  

[ Parent ]
A joke???
Pomeroy has been a very good public servant, and won statewide elections over a long period - often by HUGE margins (including 24+% just two years ago). Let's not get carried away with hyperbole, based on a loss this year in a very bad national environment for Democrats.

[ Parent ]
i agree, with the caveat
of we don't know how bad the loser stink on him is.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
There was serious talk
Bingaman would retire in 2012 as well. I think though that he can be wrangled into another term. Kent Conrad as well.

I do think Bishop will eck by. There are what, about 3-4 thousand votes left to report, and most of them in his strongholds? I'm reckoning he's in by 600 or so votes.

Maffei is more troubling, I can't believe he slept through the campaign and is about to be upset in a Democratic leaning, Democratic trending district by a nobody in a race that was not really on the radar screen. I almost want Maffei to lose, because Buerkle is done, on the chopping block. I made her district 60-39 Obama as part of a compromise map that protects Reed, Lee, and Hanna, and also protect Higgins, Slaughter, and the new Democrat representing Syracuse. It's commonsense really, Republicans in NY I think realize there's no way they can hold a Syracuse based district. Anyway, hopefully Maffei will lose and get replaced by Matt Driscoll or Stephanie Miner, both more talented politicians with stronger bases in the Syracuse area, (they would never get just 54% in Onondaga against a 2nd tier opponent, what a pathetic underperformance of virtually every Democrat at the top of the ticket, except maybe DiNapoli and Schneiderman).  


I really like Maffei
Struck me as a very decent, smart guy. Maybe I'm missing something?

[ Parent ]
Just not a great politician
More of an insider kind of guy and he doesn't seem to have the same appeal to moderate Syracuse suburbanites that Obama, Gillibrand, Schumer, Cuomo and others had in recent elections. His roots to the area are weak. He was born there, but spent most of his working life outside it, including a stint as a senior staff member with Charles Rangel from 1999-2005, when he returned to the district to help with Driscoll's reelection. It was right after that that he went in against Walsh. Still my point is he has a weak political base in the area, its skin-deep, as opposed to a popular and long time local politician like Driscoll or Miner.  

[ Parent ]
Maffei raised like $2.7 million, that's hardly sleepwalking.


[ Parent ]
NM Seat
NM should be fairly easy to keep. Someone like Heinrich could run and win. Denish would be a decent backup candidate, considering she took 46% of the vote in 2010.

I actually wouldn't be surprised to see Heather Wilson run, maybe even as an Independent. She'd certainly be tea-partied (again).


[ Parent ]
Irony in this Fix article
Can anyone spot it? http://voices.washingtonpost.c...
It's in this quote:
Cino is a former deputy secretary of the Department of Transportation who was briefly acting secretary in 2006. She is a veteran of the last three presidential campaigns, including as President Bush's political director in his 2000 campaign. She is also a former RNC deputy chairwoman and was the executive director of the National Republican Congressional Committee during the 1994 election.

More recently, Cino was the CEO of the 2008 Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Minn.

Cino's interest adds even more intrigue to the race, given her ties to House Speaker-designate John Boehner (R-Ohio). She is a good friend of Boehner and his chief of staff, Barry Jackson, and Boehner recently praised Cino at a Republican fundraiser in Washington, but Boehner spokesman Michael Steel said the speaker-to-be isn't offering an endorsement.



irony
"Boehner spokesman Michael Steel"?  

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Yep
And its about the RNC race, and Boehnor endorsing against Steele. It made me chuckle.  

[ Parent ]
NY-25
Buerkle's lead is actually only 303 votes with 55% of Onondaga Co. in, nothing yet in from Wayne Co., which would mean that Buerkle wins in the end. http://twitter.com/robertharding

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

Unless
the portions of Onondaga still out are Syracuse proper, which means they'd be about 10 points more Democratic than what's been reported up till now. If Maffei can over-perform among those remaining ballots, get around 65%, and do better in Wayne than he did on Election Day, he has a chance to eck this out.  

[ Parent ]
NY-25
That would be unlikely because in the already counted absentees in Onondaga he's already overperforming his election day county performance, so it's unlikely that Syracuse is left because then he'd win the county now by a very overwhelming margin which is unlikely, if anything, Syracuse was counted already.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

[ Parent ]
NY-25
Perhaps close enough to merit a recount, given the problems that have surfaced elsewhere.  The bulk is Onandaga County, but Maffei must seriously overperform to win.

[ Parent ]
Ensign really screwed up
If he was intending on trying to mount a comeback, (as it appears he is), why would he go so far out of his way to screw up the sweet deal he has with Reid's considerable turnout, media and fundraising machine? Reid didn't lift a finger to help Democrats in competitive races with Ensign in 2000 and 2006, but the first competitive race that Reid is in, (2004 doesn't count, he was running against a nobody), and Ensign abandons the agreement with impunity? Talk about ingratitude. It'll be nice to see him beaten. I'd just really have someone other than 61 year old Shelley Berkley. I'd rather someone like Catherine Masto.  

hmm
This was The Hill last year:

http://thehill.com/homenews/se...

If they still have their party this year, I think that will be a sign that Ensign didn't go too far in Reid's eyes.  Any word on whether it's on or not?


[ Parent ]
We'll see
I think the odds are against it. It seems clear that if Ensign hadn't had been such an unpopular politician, he'd have been working harder than he did for Angle. It appears he did as much as he could behind the scenes, which is violating the spirit of the pact completely, I'd like to see if his political turnout machine and his fundraising connections were also brought out for Angle behind the scenes.  

[ Parent ]
Problem is Ensign no longer...
Has any kind of machine! He used to depend on the gaming-mining-industrial complex that essentially controls Nevada politics, but they went all in for Harry Reid this year... And worse, they consider Ensign a "walking political corpse" who's outlived his usefulness. They may just end up letting Ensign die on the vine, especially since either Dean Heller or Shelley Berkley will be far more useful to them.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
For Ensign to be re-elected
He'll have to hire everybody that worked on Harry Reid's campaign.  Those folks appear to be miracle workers, at least in Nevada.

[ Parent ]
Reid is "killing him softly"...
That's what I'm seeing. He still won't bash Ensign in public, at least not yet, but all the tea leaves I'm reading here indicate Reid will let Ensign collapse in 2012, either in the primary or in the general.

As I've said earlier, the new non-aggression pact worth watching is between Reid and Dean Heller. If Heller challenges Ensign in the primary and wins, we'll probably have to kiss that NV-Sen pickup goodbye. But if Heller stays out or Heller can be teabagged in the GOP primary, expect Reid to shower all sorts of love on Shelley Berkley's campaign.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
What makes Heller
such a strong candidate? I get that there's a non-aggression pact amongst Nevada politicians, but why would Heller simply wipe the floor with any other candidates? If Nevada is trending blue, wouldn't the Democrats have a decent shot, particularly if we have a strong performance at the top of the ticket?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
He's been elected statewide twice
He is a relatively moderate Republican, the kind states like this like to elect.  

[ Parent ]
Yep. Even though Heller has tacked to the right...
And voted more conservative since getting elected to Congress, Heller still comes off as "mainstream" and not batsh*t crazy like Sharron Angle does.

And I should remind y'all again, gaming and mining essentially run this state. It doesn't matter that Nevada is trending Blue or that Obama may have coattails in 2012. Here in Nevada, national partisan politics takes a back seat to our state's power players anointing the pols (from both parties) they think will do the most for our state's fragile economy.

After all, this was one of the biggest reasons "The Great Red Tide" that swept so many Republicans into so many offices in other states barely registered here in Nevada, especially with our marquee Senate race that hardly anyone in DC expected Harry Reid to win.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
If Heller doesn't run...
Or Heller looks extremely vulnerable in the GOP primary (and so far, it's not looking like the gimme most expected it to be), Shelley will probably run. I can see she's hungry for it. And though she will be 61 in 2012, she's still full of spunk and more than ready to campaign the hell out of everywhere.

And what's most important here is that Shelley will likely have the anointment of the powers that be. She volunteered on Harry Reid's very first campaign for State Assembly in 1968, so they have a long and close relationship that will work to her advantage. She's also besties with MGM and Harrah's, and she's even made her peace with Steve Wynn (the two fought brutally over UNLV in the 1990s when she was Regent and he was #1 Donor/Wanna-be-dictator), so Gaming will be in her corner.

Again, what Shelley does will largely depend on what Heller decides and whether he can win the GOP primary.

The only way Ross Miller or Catherine Cortez Masto can jump in is if Shelley actually decides to pass on the Senate race.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
is it possible...
That Heller runs and the Primary might be close and Berkley runs but Heller survives?  Won't Reid be much more likely to back her at that point?  I know you don't think Berkley will run if Heller looks vulnerable in the primary, but what if she has to make her decision and they face each other anyway?

[ Parent ]
That would be the ultimate nightmare...
And I'll just say it wouldn't look pretty. Berkley and Heller just don't want to face each other in the general election, and both Reid and the big casinos don't want to have to pick one over the other.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
another question...
Since you mention Gaming and Mining where all in for Harry and gave him the fairly comfortable victory:  Were they likewise supporting Sandoval?  I would think the Governor's race is more important than the Senate race, but how delicate did they have to be in encouraging supporting Reid the elder and not Reid the younger?  And is this why Harry tried to keep his distance from Rory and there seems to be a slight political rift in the family?

[ Parent ]
It's complicated...
I would think the Governor's race is more important than the Senate race

Nope, not when we're talking about the Senate Majority Leader. And not when both Rory and Sandoval were products of the same gaming-mining-lobbying-industrial complex. (Both were corporate lawyers.) And not when both were too afraid of their own respective shadows to say anything about "The Dreaded T Word!!!!" (taxes)

Were they likewise supporting Sandoval?

Early on, when it looked like Jim Gibbons would go into the general against Rory, MGM and Harrah's pledged support for Rory because Gibbons became such damaged goods. But when the powerful Northern Nevada business interests convinced Brian Sandoval to run, the dynamics changed. MGM and Harrah's didn't want to betray Rory after the long, good relationship they had with him on the Clark County Commission, so they then proceeded to focus more on Harry's campaign. Meanwhile Wynn, Boyd, and Station all threw their lot in with Sandoval, since they didn't jump on Rory's bandwagon so quickly... Even while they were all backing Harry for Senate.

So yes, Planet Harry had to maintain a VERY delicate balance in holding together all the traditional Democratic friends (such as the unions and the enviros), along with MGM and Harrah's, who were backing him and Rory, along with the "Republicans for Reid" (like Wynn, Station, Boyd, and the mining companies) who were backing him and Sandoval.

And btw, there were similar dynamics in play in NV-03. Even though Wynn and mining were supporting Harry, they also supported Joe Heck against Dina Titus. And in fact, she had an even rougher mountain to climb because almost all the usual GOP suspects (even many of the "Republicans for Reid") were aligned against her and for Heck. And since she and Harry have never had good relations, he was shedding no tears when Dina was losing on the 2nd.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Primary before General
I think it was to survive a primary challenge. He's really weak right now and before you can compete for re-election you need to win your primary. Helping Fox New's Miss Nevada helps him win over some NV republicans but more importantly it probably means Fox stays out of the race and doesn't bring his opponent onto Fox or talk about his scandal for 2 weeks non-straight.

[ Parent ]
Rooting for a Bingamen Retirement
Heinrich would be an upgrade in New Mexico, and I think he'd probably win. He's one of the ones, along with Feinstein, Carper, Kohl,  and (to a lesser extent) Akaka, that I'd like to see hang it up after this session.

A Conrad retirement, on the other hand, would be really really bad. Pomeroy could run, I guess, but he'd probably end up being even more conservative than Conrad, and he'd obviously have a worse chance.  

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)


You obviously don't know
what you are talking about. Pomeroy is far more progressive than Conrad is and would be a big upgrade, it's just he'd have an uphill battle depending on how runs.

And I think the last thing Democrats need in 2012 is a competitive race in New Mexico. Jeff Bingaman has been quite reliably liberal for me, and hardly the pain in the neck that Ben Nelson, Kent Conrad and Max Baucus were.  


[ Parent ]
I generally like Bingaman, but I've been operating under the presumption that he's not running
It's really not going to be that hard of a hold for us though, the GOP bench is basically Heather Wilson and Richard Berry (though Steve Pearce might try again, and get his ass handed to him again).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Well, Denish's
loss shook me up a bit. I've been cursing Bill Richardson for months. What an incompetent fool. He just had to be a corrupt bastard and a mail-in governor and screw over Democrats' chances at getting real dominance in the state for the first time.  

[ Parent ]
Well, it wouldn't really matter for redistricting
Trying to make Pearce vulnerable would require weakening both Heinrich and Lujan too much.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
the current map is set until until NM gets a fourth seat


[ Parent ]
Richardson's corruption
My dad is friends with a recently elected moderate Republican Governor who in a previous life was a business man (not trying too hard to hide who I just don't want to come out 100% and say it) and he told my dad that the 1 single corrupt politician who he'd never work with again was Richardson. He said the fact that the FBI didn't arrest him for bribery was amazing because within 5 minutes of meeting him Richardson asked for a cash bonus.

Really hate politicians that are corrupt.


[ Parent ]
If Bingaman hangs it up
maybe we can get Pearce to beat Wilson again in a primary, get crushed by heinrich, and Teague can pick up his seat again.

I'd pay money to see that...


[ Parent ]
I wish
I think that Pearce has learned his lesson. He can remain in the House for a long time in safe seat or he can venture statewide and be pummeled. I don't think he will run again statewide unfortunately.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
We're holding you to that
Expecting a donation to the Heinrich for Senate campaign the day he announces.  

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
A little question about NM-Sen as open seat

Who would stop Bill Richardson if he want to run for succeed Jeff Bingaman?

[ Parent ]
Well, the Democratic primary electorate for one
Richardson's popularity is absolutely abysmal even among Democrats, not to mention he knows he'd lose a senate race this year.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
In other words
He is unpopular, but still many people support him, including many latinos. The last approval numbers what I see is 33% approve 63% dissaprove. With a 49% of democratic registration in New Mexico in 2008, that mean more than a half of the local democrats still approve him, and this is enough for win a primary running with enough money. He is powerful, courageous, and has low own ethic bareers.

In other words... Who would be enough courageous and at same time able for run a competitive campaign against Bill Richardson in New Mexico if he want to run for succeed Jeff Bingaman? If someone runs he would be the Jenniffer Brunner of the race.

I think Bill Richardson will run again for something. I'm not against him, and I would see well if he run against S Martinez in 2014. But I hope Jeff Bingaman continue still.


[ Parent ]
Wake Up!!!
Dude, Richardson has NO CHANCE. I'm sorry but you need to learn something! A 33% approval 63% disapproval means almost nobody supports him anymore. Right away more than 1/2 of the state says you won't vote for him. Sure not every disapproval vote equals a vote for the opponent but it often does.

He might be able to win a primary but he won't go much further and he knows that. The guy has had almost every political job, he's going to just cash it in now.

What does Brunner have to do with this? She challenged a Lt. Gov who got his ass handed to him a week ago. Also, nobody knew who here opponent was until he started campaigning. Plus Brunner lost because she couldn't fundraise which she couldn't do because people didn't think she could win because she couldn't fundraise. A professor of mine was on her staff and that was the problem. It has nothing to do with Richardson.

Every Dem knows a Richardson primary win equates to a certain general election loss.


[ Parent ]
As example I can learn about P Quinn

Or maybe some others must learn about it.

P Quinn winning with approvals under 30%. It is not only the approval, it is also the alternative. When you have 33% and all the others are in 53% you are toast, but the current 33% is not far of the average.

I tell Brunner as example of so good candidate without the support of the stablishment and without chance of raise money.


[ Parent ]
FBI Indictments
for another

[ Parent ]
This really would stop him

I think this is the alone thing what would stop him.

[ Parent ]
No need to get testy
I'm betting on Pomeroy having a more conservative record in the Senate because he'd have a far tougher time getting elected in the first place. Plus, given how he was screwed on his health care vote last year, I don't think it's a given that he will be as aggressive in making tough votes in the Senate, especially since it's a much more high profile position.

Bingamen has been meh for me, especially recently. I didn't like how he acted during the health care debate, especially when he put up with Baucus's "Gang of Six" nonsense. I don't like that he hasn't been as aggressive on pushing cap and trade or a carbon tax as he should have been as chairman of the Energy Committee, and I'd rather someone else take that job. The next in line is Wyden, and I think it's a given that he'd be significantly better. I think someone like Heinrich, who's charismatic and represents a district that isn't much more Democratic than the state, would do fine statewide in a year like 2012 with Obama at the top of the ballot. I also have had as a goal for a while to elect more young progressives to the Senate (that's why I was pretty devastated when Alexi lost), and Heinrich fits the bill.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)


[ Parent ]
Bingaman
Bingaman is a policy guy who is not a camera hog. He isn't trying to beat John McCain's record for appearances on MTP. He does stuff behind the scenes but you won't ever see him grandstand over something and make a mountain out of an ant hill. That is part of why he is so liked in New Mexico. He is non-controversial. He also is a Democratic survivor of 1994.

I'd love for Heinrich to run for his seat though.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  


[ Parent ]
The other thing though is that he has to retire eventually
And I'd rather he do it now in a presidential year when Heinrich can hop in and start storing up seniority than in 2018 when we don't know what the electoral landscape will look like.  

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
Good point.
Nate Silver did a study about a year ago showing how it's much better for one's Party to retire when you're in a strong position and your potential successor has a good chance of winning. Rather than quit when things look bad and your potential replacement would have a difficult time succeeding.  

[ Parent ]
Mmm
....how it's much better for one's Party to retire when you're in a strong position and your potential successor has a good chance of winning. Rather than quit when things look bad and your potential replacement would have a difficult time succeeding.

One more reason why Evan Bayh is an asshole. But we've already beaten that horse to death already, beating it again won't send Dan Coats to his wonderful retirement property in North Carolina until 2016.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


[ Parent ]
HAHAHAHA
I get that he's not a hardcore liberal and that he's from a right-leaning state, but man, doesn't he understand throwing a bone to the base every so often to rack up some goodwill? He's got a pretty unconventional way of trying to get Democrats to like him, based on his recent actions.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Right there with you
Bayh is a douche.

[ Parent ]
NM
Heinrich is widely regarded as a likely candidate if Bingaman retires. If Wilson doesn't run though, who would Reps run? Would LG John Sanchez or SoS Dianna Duran get it?  

[ Parent ]
Maybe Gary Johnson?
He seems intent on running a very quixotic bid for President, which won't get anywhere because he'd be competing for voters with the better-known Ron Paul. But perhaps Cornyn could convince him to run for a more winnable open Senate seat? I wonder what sort of approval numbers he left office with.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
He'd never get a clear field for that senate seat
His position on drugs (which I agree with btw) will kill him with a Republican electorate (especially in the rural south where drugs are a problem).

If there's an open seat, I'd expect Heather Wilson to run again, plus a few others (and while I doubt Steve Pearce runs again, I wouldn't totally put it past him either, nor would I rule out Teague trying to take out Pearce when Obama's turnout machine will make NM-02 much more favorable to him).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
If Wilson does not run
Who else is there for Reps? Are Duran and Sanchez strong enough?  

[ Parent ]
I doubt it
Mary Herrera (like a lot of New Mexico Democrats unfortunately) had a lot ethical problems at her doorstep, if Duran hadn't won, it would've been another Republican.

Sanchez already got destroyed by Bill Richardson back in 2002, he could run, but he's not a particularly strong candidate, especially not when Obama is likely to carry the state by double-digits.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
And to elaborate a bit more
The Republican bench in New Mexico is really limited to Heather Wilson and Albuquerque mayor Richard Berry (though I doubt he'd run anyways, or that he'd be more formidable than Wilson). Everyone else outside of Martinez is pretty much second and third tier, the Democrats have a much deeper bench (even in a loss, Harry Teague could run a very strong statewide campaign, as well as Ben Ray Lujan, though he'd definitely be weaker than Heinrich who has an Albuquerque base).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
steve pearce again?
hope, hope, hope, hope.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Gotta agree with Cool Arrow on this one
As insane as Steve Pearce is, I don't think he's insane enough to really think that he's got a prayer at winning statewide in a presidential year (although given the shit he's pulled and that the NM GOP isn't always as smart as 2010 might suggest, I wouldn't dismiss the possibility either).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
he thought he was smart enough to try once in a prez year
but yeah, i know it's a slim chance at best (about 3%).

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Then again, that was before Tom Udall jumped in
Marty Chavez was never that popular in Albuquerque and was himself destroyed by Gary Johnson in '98.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
chavez just seems...unfortunate
he's one of those people who can't quite get a winning coalition, but doesn't realize it, isn't he?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Well he generally did in Albuquerque
But that has a lot more to do with the crazy nonpartisan elections, he always wins with a coalition of moderates (while both the left and the right hate him).

Of course, when he tried to pull a Bloomberg in 2009, that really blew up in his face.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Pearce was tea-party before tea-party
I think Pearce fits the tea-party base well. NM's (elected) Republicans tend to be fairly moderate but the base isn't. That's why Heather Wilson can't win a primary that is outside of Albuquerque. I think if Pearce doesn't run (and the new Governor doesn't either) you'd be looking at a 4th rate tea party nut that's coming from a positon like sheriff or state senate. And yes, that person would still beat a stand up character like Wilson in the primary

[ Parent ]
Pearce only barely beat Wilson in the primary
And Pearce has a base of support in southern New Mexico (really southeastern New Mexico) where the largest share of Republican primary voters are.

Wilson is still quite respected among New Mexico Republicans, and you shouldn't dismiss her chances of winning the primary (actually, Pearce probably did her a favor by beating her in the primary last time around, she would've lost by double digits to Udall as well).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Wilson
Wilson would just be tea-partied again.

[ Parent ]
Like I said above, if Pearce doesn't run, there's no one else to challenge Wilson
Steve Pearce can't beat Wilson again after the humiliating loss he had against Tom Udall. All Heather Wilson needs to do is suck up to the oil industry in southeastern New Mexico and get her Albuquerque base out and she could easily dispatch any third-tier teabagger that tries to beat her.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Lugar's poll is a little dusty
Not that it matters, but Shella mentions in the comments section of his article that the poll was conducted "prior to the election". I'm not really sure what this release was supposed to prove; everyone already knows that Lugar is popular statewide, so was Mike Castle, and that didn't save him.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

Bingaman
If Bingaman were to retire (I don't think that he will, no inside information here just my hunch) I think that in a Presidential year we would be fine holding the seat with Martin Heinrich running and we could probably keep his House seat as well. Senate would lean Democratic and the House seat would be a tossup depending upon who we could recruit (no to Marty Chavez!!!). The GOP's #1 candidate would be Susana Martinez who isn't leaving her Governor's gig to run for Senate. Then you start looking down at Heather Wilson (former Rep of NM-01 who lost the GOP primary to Steve Pearce but is more moderate) and other assorted names. If he retired I would prefer him to do it now under a Presidential turnout as opposed to an off-cycle.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

Conrad needs to stay put.
They need to lock him in a room and threaten to seize his chairmanship for the 112th Congress if he retires (assuming that he's really considering it).  It's ND and the Dem bench there is thin.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
CA-20 Costa adds 994 votes from Fresno Co. to his lead
and is now ahead by 2,422, ahead of Vidak: 51.5% to 48.5%.
http://www.fresnobee.com/2010/...

The article said there are 500-1000 more votes to count in the 20th CD portion of Fresno Co, Kings Co. is done, and Kern Co. has more to go in their portion of the 20th.

It's no longer a close race. Finally we can stick a fork in this race for sure, although Vidak still isn't conceding.  


Can anyone explain
Why there are over 200,000 votes counted in CD-11, the McNerney race, but only around 85,000 votes in CD-20, the Costa race?  At according to the SoS website.

[ Parent ]
One is mostly hispanic
with a huge population of poor voters and illegal immigrants and has miniscule turnout, and the other is a high turnout, wealthy San Fran-San Jose exurban seat.  

[ Parent ]
Check out the previous year's totals
They also show an enormous disparity in turnout.  Costa's district is full of non-voters.

[ Parent ]
RE: Nevada Redistricting
Does it really have to be a "fight"? If Berkeley runs for Senate, they can draw one for both Horsford and Oceguera if they want to. Unless they both live in the exact same area, which would make it harder. I think Oceguera is from North Vegas. I don't know where Horsford is from.

And that's not even including NV-03 if they decide they want to screw with Heck and Titus opts out of a rematch

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)


Fortunately, they don't...
Oceguera actually lives less than 2 miles from me, just north of Silverado Ranch (SE Vegas 'burbs). Horsford lives in West Las Vegas. If Shelley runs for Senate, Horsford will "inherit" NV-01. The only question will be whether NV-04 gets custom designed for Oceguera or former Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley. (Rumors have it she was promised NV-04 if she stayed out of this year's Governor's race.)

And with Sandoval as Governor and enough GOP votes in play for the budget, it's virtually guaranteed NV-03 will be made more GOP friendly. The only big question is how much of the Southwest, Summerlin, and Northwest suburbs will be included in it. Rumor has it State Senator Barbara Cegavske (R-Summerlin) might want a promotion to Washington.

Of course, all this jockeying in Carson City means Dina Titus will have a real uphill battle if she decides to run again. She'll either have to fight Horsford in NV-01 (assuming Shelley runs for Senate), Heck again in NV-03 (but MUCH tougher this time with a tougher district she'll probably be drawn out of), or Oceguera or Buckley in the new NV-04 district.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
What are the chances the SCOTUS would hear this appeal?
According to that link, the wingnuts trying to recall NJ's Sen. Menendez said they plan to appeal to the US Supreme Court.

They would have to run it through the Court of Appeals first.
Even so, there is federal court precedent on the matter that there is no provision to recall federal elected politicians.

Why they chose Menendez to "recall" is beyond me...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Uhh
don't remind me about recalls. Thanks to Darrell Issa, Enron and Pete Wilson we got saddled with 7 and something years of Ahnold. But I'm glad that Issa's plot to cruise into the governor's office got umm...terminated quickly.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
What are the chances
that he's taken out in the next cycle or two? I don't know what his district will look like, but isn't his area trending more and more blue?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Issa?
He's probably got one of the safest Republican districts in SoCal for now. Redistricting could change that, and long-term trends are certainly going in the other direction in California, but for the time being you guys have better shots going after Bilbray, Calvert, Bono Mack, and Campbell.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Not his area barring redistricting.
The AP fooled me when they had him at 50% when they had the Riverside numbers wrong.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
That district will be more or less the same
The area is very Republican. The commission could throw him in with Bilbray, which would be the only chance of Issa being left without a seat.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
And Issa could
Issa could defeat Bilbray in a primary unless the seat somehow took in nearly all of Bilbray's district but almost none of Issa's. Even then, Issa would still likely have a modest chunk of his district as a base (a realistic idea might have an Issa-Bilbray district starting at the San Diego-OC border and heading south. The thing is, Issa is rich as hell and could probably spend his way to a primary victory over Bilbray.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
The vote was 4-2
on the NJ Supreme Court.
So apparently two of the NJ justices think maybe it could be allowed...

[ Parent ]
Because
The NJ constitution has a recall provision.

[ Parent ]
I heard that argument
However, whether it can be legally applied to federal (I repeat, federal) officials is nebulous at best since the US Constitution has no such provision.  Recalls can only be done on state officials, that's settled.

Also, why on Earth would they target Menendez over, say, Lautenberg?  I'm trying not to connect the dots that there could be something racial about it, but I'm not receiving any satisfactory answers on it all.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
It is nebulous
But you have to try it.

Lautenberg is about 85 years old and likely enough to go on his own.


[ Parent ]
Why do you have to try it?
Why not wait until the regularly schedueled election like everybody else?

[ Parent ]
Oh I don't think you do
But clearly these lawsuit guys do. I only guess as to their motivations.

[ Parent ]
because it's the tea party people
they don't follow our rules, they follow the constitution (as they see it in their heads, missing many amendments and the new amendment John Galt ended at the end of Atlas Shrugged that says no law shall be made impeding business).

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
not just them
How many times has the gay marriage movement went screaming to the courts after getting shellacked at a 'regularly scheduled election'?

The judiciary is not just a weapon of the left anymore. That changed a long time ago.


[ Parent ]
Bit different
To trying to overturn an elected official.

[ Parent ]
This.
also the gay marriage movement doesn't bizarrely pick and choose. it's really weird how the crazies basically just picked a random Democratic senator to go after.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
It's not random
As I said, there's only a handful of states that have a recall provision in their State Constitution to establish a flimsy legal case in the first place. And of those, most of them had some other open Senate seat to focus on.

New Jersey didn't.


[ Parent ]
so these guys
couldn't wait until 2012 and wanted to make the state pay for a recall election?

Mmm, fiscal conservatism.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Yup. One reason why I'm not a Republican anymore!


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
And also
Another difference is that LGBT people can point to parts of the Constitution that would suggest support for their arguments (equal protection under the law, separation of church & state, etc.) whereas the constitution is clearly silent on federal recalls and very clear about the supremacy of federal law over state law, especially as it relates to functions of the federal government itself.

But hey, thanks for comparing the gay community's attempts to get equal rights to teabagging right-wingers' transparently partisan attempt to get rid of a politician they don't like. We really appreciate it.   /sarcasm

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
shrug
Right, the 'its different when WE do it' attitude.

The gay marriage people made some highly nebulous arguments in Strauss vs Horton earlier this year after proposition 8 passed.

Rather than waiting until the 2012 election and putting proposition 8 on the ballot, they go howling to the courts. The rationale is almost certainly the same; they think they'll lose again at the polls.


[ Parent ]
I'd like to put YOUR rights
to a vote, and then see how much you howl and scream. Those are lovely verbs you use.

PS. Seeking redress from the courts is a fundamental American right. You mock it by making it seem that gays and lesbians are histrionic in attempting to protect themselves via court action.


[ Parent ]
Seeking redress from the courts is a fundamental American right
Unless, of course, its a teabagger in New Jersey.

But in any case, this is policy stuff, so I'm exiting the discussion.


[ Parent ]
How nice of you
to exit the discussion after making gay people seem like crazed, litigious lunatics.

[ Parent ]
In my view, the only reason
the NJ S.C. might be wrong is that the state of NJ would have no ability to enforce a recall even if approved (i.e., does anyone think that the Senate would honor such a vote, or that the U.S. Supreme Court would require it to?)

[ Parent ]
"Putting it on the ballot"
Would meet the definition of irregular would it not? Anyway, there is no mileage in arguing this. Certainly not bringing gay rights into it.

[ Parent ]
Equal protection of the laws, and other protections provided by the Bill of Rights,
should not be put to a popular vote.  That's the whole point of putting these things in the Constitution -- to limit what legislatures, and The People, legislating through initiatives, may do.

The fact that we win a sizable percent of these cases is a pretty compelling indicator that they have constitutional merit, by the way.

And yeah: animals howl.  Nice imagery.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08


[ Parent ]
Actual logic!


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Weird
I keep thinking this is the Swing State Project for some reason. whenever I try to go to the Listen to Republicans Rant Project it keeps redirecting me to SSP for some reason. My apologies.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
It's just the opposite for me...
I come to SSP only to find, from time to time, it seems like LRRP. ;-)

[ Parent ]
The Federal Judiciary...
..has for most of its history been primarily another way for business interests to overturn or undermine laws and/or regulations both state and federal that it doesn't like.

It's very easy to lose sight of that if the only jurisprudence you know about is in the arenas of civil liberties (esp. abortion) and racial segregation, and that is mostly what the media talks about. And we haven't seen anywhere near as much of that sort of thing as we did during the Warren years

What does this have to do with Congressional elections? Plenty. There are more candidates then ever on the Republican side of things who are talking like the entire 20th Century was unconstitutional.



36, M, Democrat, MD-03


[ Parent ]
Nope. It would go straight to the Supreme Court.
Appeals from the highest state court of appeals (usually the Supreme Court) go directly to the U.S. Supreme Court.

[ Parent ]
no, it'd go straight to SCOTUS
Decision by the highest court in a state on a question of the federal Constitution -- no need to re-run all the way up the federal flagpole first.

[ Parent ]
Unlikely...
This is purely a state issue based on state law.  The supreme court would be very unlikely to intervene.  Even if they did, by the time they ruled on it, the 2012 election would be over.

[ Parent ]
Actually, I think the challenge is that
the recall provision violates the Federal Constution, and that would absolutely be ripe for Supreme Court review.

[ Parent ]
According to Reid Epstein on Twitter:
Altschuler's lead over Bishop down to 166 votes in #ny01. Absentee count done for S'hampton & Smithtown. Now on East Hampton & Southold.


As far as Texas goes,
I read a claim the other day that 72 percent its citizens live in a Democratic-leaning area. Right now, that probably doesn't mean much, since the state has a two-to-one Republican-Democratic representation in the House, but you have to wonder how long that will continue to last, even if the districts continue to be gerrymandered, especially in light of the fact that most of the growth in the state comes from Hispanics. Could it even out a lot quicker than some expect, and not just because of the new congressional districts that are going to be drawn?

Also, if most of the growth comes from Hispanics, doesn't this improve our chances in the Senate race in two years? Both Hutchinson and Cornyn seem to do pretty well amongst Hispanics, but I wonder how well a Democratic candidate could target them and the large pool of votersthat never seems to vote in the state, which is something like four or five million people. Can the Democrats find enough votes in this state to secure a win? I'd like to think so, although I wonder exactly who is amongst the pool of untapped voters.

As far as Indiana goes, I doubt that will deter Teabaggers. Whether they are successful is another story, but I would be surprised if these people didn't feel emboldened by this past year. I just hope the Democrats have a good candidate lined up. I don't want to say it's likely that we'll pick up that seat if Lugar is taken down in a primary, but it's certainly a helluva lot likelier. Considering the relative dearth of good opportunities in the next two years, we should pursue every possibility.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


Absolutely
Chances of winning are small but they have to at least try. Hopefully people in at least a couple of states can take inspiration from Senator Coons taking a chance.

[ Parent ]
I'm going to start looking into this more,
but if you look at the link below, there's consistently four to five million people who are registered but simply don't show up. There are a few million more that simply aren't registered, many of whom are probably minorities.

I have no idea who makes up that pool of people. Maybe it's no different than the pool of people that votes, but somehow, I find that hard to believe. Something tells me a large portion of those people are just unmotivated and are staying home because nobody is talking to them.

Is it really that much to expect that we can find enough votes amongst those who are registered but who aren't voting and those who aren't registered but can be convinced to do? I want to say no, only because we aren't looking to make up that much of a deficit, at least not in comparison to the pool we'd be getting new voters from.

It looks like we'd need about 30 percent of voters from this pool of a few million to show up to win. I have no idea if it's possible to get them to show up, but I'd definitely like to try. It'd be expensive, sure, but as long as our fund raising potential doesn't collapse, we could have an effort in the state that registers new voters and targets registered ones which will help House candidates, the Senate candidate, and Obama at the top of the ticket. And in the end, if we still fall short by 500,000 votes instead of a one million, we'll have a much better means of contacting voters next time.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Immigration Issues
I think it's not that nobody is talking to them but because nothing has been done on immigration yet. Passing the DREAM Act would be a start but until something is resolved on immigration I think hispanics will lean left but be locked up. I understand that most people hear what the right says and can't believe hispanics would stay on the sidelines but it's not like Democrats did anything for them. And nominating a hispanic to the supreme court only really helps with the elites who are already voting. I think it'd take something like nominating a charismatic Hispanic for the Senate in Texas to get these voters to turn out.

Also, some people counted in the census are not citizens (legal or not) and thus can't vote anyway. I think in Texas this makes up a decent number of the non-registered citizens, but obviously they can't be the registered ones.  


[ Parent ]
When I said nobody
was talking to voters, I meant white voters more than Hispanic voters. To win right now in Texas, under normal circumstances, the Democrats would almost certainly have to get more of the white vote. They'd need to get more of the Hispanic vote as well, but that's probably a lot easier, at least in a presidential race. You can argue whether it'd be better to focus more on voters who already turn out, more on those who are registered but don't usually show up, or on registering new voters but getting them to the pools. It's certainly some combination of all three, but usually, not all three categories get an equal focus. In Texas, however, there's a unique enough electorate that you probably could focus on all three more or less equally.

Anyway, these people aren't in a bubble, but if the campaigns in the state are usually a Republican-only affair, they simply aren't getting the exposure, either directly or indirectly, that voters in Ohio or Florida are getting. Maybe in the end, the conservatives in some states are simply too numerous for us to do anything, but I don't want to assume that. And if the Democrats aren't contesting the Senate seats or the presidential race like they are in other states, they aren't running strong ground games. You have to wonder if Barbara Ann Randofsky would have at least matched Rick Noriega's totals in the state, or at least broken 40 percent, had she had computer systems in her offices that communicated with each other so that she could get out the vote. That alone wouldn't have made her come closing to winning, but a few points here and a few points there, and suddenly, you look to be within striking distance.

I'll say stuff similar to this again and again, but suffice it to say, Democrats really only have one place to go but up in states like Texas. Even when they are bluer than they are now, we'll still need to campaign in those states, so why not get a head start? If nothing else, we'll make our jobs easier in future campaigns, and we can force the Republicans to devote resources in states that should be safe for them. And maybe, just maybe, with some wind at our backs and some of our efforts coming to fruition, we can pull an upset. If money isn't going to be a problem, why not see if something special can happen?

As for illegals and being registered, I am not sure how the Census deals with illegal immigrants, but there's at least approximately 2.5 million Hispanics in the state. You have to figure that at least a million of them aren't illegal and can be registered.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
I'm going to start looking into this more,
but if you look at the link below, there's consistently four to five million people who are registered but simply don't show up. There are a few million more that simply aren't registered, many of whom are probably minorities.

I have no idea who makes up that pool of people. Maybe it's no different than the pool of people that votes, but somehow, I find that hard to believe. Something tells me a large portion of those people are just unmotivated and are staying home because nobody is talking to them.

Is it really that much to expect that we can find enough votes amongst those who are registered but who aren't voting and those who aren't registered but can be convinced to do? I want to say no, only because we aren't looking to make up that much of a deficit, at least not in comparison to the pool we'd be getting new voters from.

It looks like we'd need about 30 percent of voters from this pool of a few million to show up to win. I have no idea if it's possible to get them to show up, but I'd definitely like to try. It'd be expensive, sure, but as long as our fund raising potential doesn't collapse, we could have an effort in the state that registers new voters and targets registered ones which will help House candidates, the Senate candidate, and Obama at the top of the ticket. And in the end, if we still fall short by 500,000 votes instead of a one million, we'll have a much better means of contacting voters next time.

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/ele...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
72 percent claim
I read a claim the other day that 72 percent its citizens live in a Democratic-leaning area.

If by "area" you mean county, then that could be true.  Harris (Houston) and Bexar (San Antonio) are now slightly Democratic, Dallas is fairly Democratic, and Travis (Austin) is very Democratic.  In addition, there are counties along the Mexican border and some along the Gulf that have high Democratic percentages.  Unfortunately, most of these counties, except for Dallas and Travis, are not producing real net Democratic votes, and the exurb counties are blood red.  


[ Parent ]
What's the difference
between an exurb and a suburb in Texas? Is one really that much different from the other based on how red it is, or is there really no difference at all?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Big Difference
In most regions yes. To be overly simplistic the suburbs are where the country club types live the exurbs are rural areas that are turning suburban. Suburban areas tend to have (not in any order) 1. Hardcore Republicans that are Republican because of religious issues 2. Progressive Democrats that are well educated and make good money (which is what most Progressive Dems are) and 3. business Republicans who voted for Bush Sr in 88 and 92, Clinton in 96, Bush twice and Obama in 08. They hate the tea-party but they are businessmen. They lean right because of issues like taxes but they don't think we're setting up death panels. This group is why the Dems took the house in 06 and lost in 08 and why Palin would be slaughtered in a general election. Often they are independents or they crossover in primaries, which is why primaries go more and more to the bases.

Exurbs has the religious conservatives, some but much fewer business republicans, and no progressives. That doesn't mean there are no Democrats. There are. They tend to be the older farmers who grew up in the Great Depression and fought in WWII and supported Kennedy and Johnson (and Reagan). They care about social security, debt, and education. Besides these people there are Dems in rural areas but besides students (or young people) they are harder to group. This area backlashed to Dems since 2006 hard. They don't like Obama (maybe because of religion or race or policy), they don't like big government, they watch Fox News, and more and more they are moving the conservative base further right.


[ Parent ]
Error
Meant to say lost the House in 2010

[ Parent ]
The types of people
that you are talking about--those outside the base who might lean in one direction, sometimes heavily, but aren't entirely opposed to voting for a Democrat--are the reason I think Democrats would be nuts not to get to work in the state. Imagine if someone like Michael Williams ended up being the nominee for Republicans instead of Hutchinson. It'd be an uphill battle, but would the types of voters you describe be instantly opposed to a moderate Democrat (think of someone like Mark Warner in Virginia) who appears serious and sober? Maybe these people are already part of the coalition, such as it is, for Democrats in the state, but if they aren't, perhaps with enough appeals they could be won over. Maybe they'd be only ten percent of the million or so votes the Democrats need to win or to at least keep it close, but that's not nothing.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Suburb and Exurbs
I usually think of the "suburbs" as places where people live but frequently commute to a big city to work.  In Texas, I consider the suburbs as municipalities within the same county as a major city, so I don't really think the term "suburban county" is all that appropriate.  This is a bit unfair to Collin County I suppose, since there are plenty of people who commute into Dallas from Plano.  In any case, I suppose I should have said "suburb and exurb counties".

[ Parent ]
Lugar
I can't believe he's running again. I really think it's because he's scared a crazy Republican would take his seat and he's already seen the party go to hell. I know he's not a moderate Republican but he is a rational Republican and on issues like START puts issue before party. I think if a moderate Republican would run for the senate he'd retire (and at 78 it'd be expected) but who'd take his seat Pence? Rokita? Stutzman (who ran for Senate like 3 months after being elected to the House)?

Amazingly the guy who probably is closest to Lugar is Tim Roemer and I really wanted him to run expecting Lugar to retire. Actually I wanted him to be Obama's VP candidate thinking he'd help us win IN and NC and GA (funny now) and would give Obama a loyal soldier as VP.

I thought we had a chance at this seat, but then I thought with Lugar staying we had no chance, but now that Ellsworth and Hill are unemployed they could easily run for this seat. And while they'd have no chance of beating Lugar I could see Lugar being tea partied if foreign policy becomes the agenda. now that we lost the House. Look we've lost the House for 2 weeks and already foreign policy has become one of the main issues and Lugar bashed the conservative positon. How many more times can he do that before a Christine O'Donnell jumps in?


[ Parent ]
NY 01: Altschuler's lead shrinks to 138
 Republican Randy Altschuler's slim lead over U.S. Representative Tim Bishop continued to narrow today as election workers finished tallying absentee ballots from voters who live in Southampton and Smithtown, and began counting absentee ballots from East Hampton and Southold.

As of 5:30 p.m. on Thursday, Mr. Altschuler's lead had shrunk to 138 votes, down from the 383-vote lead he had before the counting of some 10,100 absentee ballots started on Tuesday, according to Jon Schneider, a spokesman for Mr. Bishop. It is unclear how many absentee ballots have been counted so far.

 


Does anyone know how Southampton and Smithtown voted...
in the regular vote.

[ Parent ]
He was a provost at Southhampton College
Held that position for awhile so I sense he will pick up strong traction there and eek out a win.

NY-29

[ Parent ]
Bishop camp says
that Bishop was trounced in Smithtown in general, and is one of the reasons why they are very optimistic after absentee count in Smithtown.

[ Parent ]
90 vote Altschuler lead
Altschuler's lead is now down to 90.  Most of East Hampton (17 of 19 ED's) and most of Southold were counted (18 of 19), 3 of 22 ED's in Riverhead were counted.

Not sure how each have voted so far, but traditionally Smithtown is the most Republican, East Hampton the most Democratic.  Looking at Obama's # from 08 (he won the district by 3.83)

East Hampton (17 of 19 counted), Smithtown (all 60 counted) Southampton (all 42 counted), and Southold (18 of 19 counted) went to Obama 49.97-49.10.  

Brookhave (all 294 remain to be counted), Riverhead (19 of 22 remain to be counted) Shelter Island (4 to be counted) went to Obama 52.01-46.95.

Now we aren't sure what ED's in Southold and East Hampton remain or what ED's in Riverhead have been counted, but that is a pretty decent comparison of the general area of what has been counted to compared to what hasn't.  

So Obama's margin was roughly 4 points higher in the ED's that remain to be counted than in the ones that were counted.  The one caveat is a higher concentration of absentees were from the Hamptons, which means that what has been counted might be slightly more Democratic than what hasn't been even though the 08 numbers show otherwise.

With that being said only about 1/3 of the absentees have been counted so far and Bishop has picked up 300 votes.  Even if what remains to be counted isn't as Democratic as what has been counted the difference is probably small, so its pretty much certain Bishop will continue to pick up votes.


[ Parent ]
Retirements
Main reason somebody needs to grow a spine and take on the DSCC chair ASAP. First task is to persuade Conrad, Bingaman, Kohl, Webb and Bill Nelson to stay put then move onto recruitment. And that includes the longshot races in AZ, TX, TN, MS and IN. GOP could well lose a couple or more primaries in those states and there is a real need to try and stretch the playing field else the large number of Democratic seats get swamped.

I don't know about the races in the South
But we're lucky in that we have a reasonably strong bench in both Indiana and Arizona. I can think of all sorts of candidates in Indiana, most of whom don't have the Brad Ellsworth problem of leaving a vulnerable open seat behind them.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
There is John Sharp in TX
TN is more difficult but there must be somebody. Bart Gordon is young enough but he voted for HCR reconciliation so that is probably a non-starter.

[ Parent ]
Tennessee has a couple of
Democratic governors in big cities that could run. I have no idea if they'd plan outside of their cities, but having a solid base of support in a large area of your state isn't the worst starting point.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Or the problem
....of getting drafted at the very last second by the retirement of the world's biggest fuckface** and having little time to make his case to statewide voters.

**please note that Joe Lieberman is the world's biggest asshat, and is only 2nd on the list of fuckfaces after Evan Bayh.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
I have to ask
In terms of politics, what's the difference between an as$hat and a f*ckface?

[ Parent ]
Fuckface status of Evan Bayh aside
Ellsworth had the time to make his case, he just didn't have the resources, which arguably is also Bayh's fault.

Coats was in the race three months longer than Ellsworth, but he spent most of those three months having to deal with Democrats mocking him for not actually being much of a Hoosier anymore, as well as now-Congressman Stutzman and the inimitable John Hostettler attacking him on the right.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09


[ Parent ]
One
advantage Coats has is that spending 12 years as a lobbyist, you have a lot of friends/connections that could write big fat checks and fast. If Ellsworth had been able to go up way earlier, Coats would of probably still won, but probably only by a very small margin.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
TIM ROEMER PLEASE


[ Parent ]
TN-05: Cooper Files for Re-election
http://www.rollcall.com/news/B...
Will he be screwed in redistricting?  

Probably not
Bill Haslam lost Davidson County even as he won 2-1. I don't think the Republicans would try to crack Nashville if it meant endangering the surrounding Republicans.

[ Parent ]
NO
The GOP will just lock in 7-2 and move on.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

[ Parent ]
Here's one map that splits Davidson a few ways
Davidson County:

Nashville Closeup:

The State:

Changes:





Racial changes in districts

TN5: Goes from 68/23 in the 2000 Census to 75/14.
TN6: Goes from 89/6 to 77/15.
TN7: Goes from 83.5/11 to 80/14.
TN8: Goes from 74/22 to 76/19.
TN9: Goes from 35/59.5 to 29/63.

TN5 is less than half Davidson, and takes in two of the most Republican counties in Middle Tennessee.

And the division of Nashville actually divides their African-American neighborhoods between the 4th and 6th.

Having Davidson divided 2 ways is asking for trouble. But 3 ways probably creates an 8-1 map.


[ Parent ]
correction
divides the neighborhoods between the 6th and 7th.

[ Parent ]
I saw a car from one of Tom Ganley's dealerships today
And seeing as how I live in the southeastern corner of Virginia, that was kind of odd.

In a military community like SE VA
You see cars from everywhere.

[ Parent ]
True, but they had Virginia plates.


[ Parent ]
Solution for DSCC?
Tom Carper is telling Reid to pick two chairmen. I think it could work. A Senator like Michael Bennett, who would be a decent chairman, but has small children at home and might not want to be away much more than he has to, is much more likely to do it if he has someone to share the responsibilities with. Sheldon Whitehouse was asked by Reid, but he wanted to focus on his re-election. If he could share the responsibilities with someone else, he might do it. Carper also said he is planning to run for re-election. O'Donnell 2012? http://www.politico.com/news/s...

No Time
I don't think it means 1/2 the work. I think it means 2 people do a full time job (lol). I wouldn't go near this if I had kids. Just read Rahm's book about the 06 elections or Plouffe's book on Obama's campaign. Basically for 18 months your kids have 1 parent. It's horrible.

I don't get why a non-senator can't run the DSCC. Someone who has party experience like Dean or Corzine could do the job without the "side job" of being a Senator. Plus it'd be a good way for someone like Corzine to get his name back in the papers in a good way (because I bet he'll really look hard at Lautenberg's senate seat in 2014.


[ Parent ]
I agree completely.
To the extent that it would be viewed as some sort of problem, the only people who care about this would be people inside the Beltway.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
GOP officially wins
CO House

http://www.kktv.com/home/headl...

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7


1 seat majority
And the Democrats have the governor and the State Senate. The CO House should easily switch back in 2012.

[ Parent ]
Could a DADT repeal help Lieberman's chances?
He led today's press conference, surrounded by about a dozen more liberal Democrats, assuring that, as long as the Democrats give the GOP-ers sufficient debate time on the floor, they should have 60+ votes, with Lugar, Collins, and Snowe on board. My hunch is Lieberman probably views leadership on a DADT repeal as his final hurrah in salvaging whatever political capital he holds heading into re-election. It also has to signal he has zero intention on entering a GOP primary.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

I think you're right...
He'll hang his hat on this and his leadership on climate change legislation to win over Dem-leaning voters, and hope that his general hawkishness helps conservatives move past some of his big votes these past two years.

Not sure this will work for him (in fact, I doubt it will), but he clearly still thinks he might be in the game for 2012.


[ Parent ]
Suggests indie again


[ Parent ]
if he wants R votes
this probably isn't the way to do it.  an attempt at running as a D?  why not, if he loses the primary again, he can run as an indie again.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
I really don't see how he wins a Dem primary
Based entirely on DADT repeal. He has burned far too many bridges within the party since 2006.

[ Parent ]
DADT
and the stimulus, HCR (though he killed the public option) finreg and others.  what i figure is, what can it hurt to try, worst case scenario he suddenly becomes an indie again like last time.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
The fact he supported McCain
And actually spoke at the GOP convention overrides all that IMO. If he tried to run on HCR I think Murphy or whoever could make a pretty convincing case that he hurt the effort. But sure, he could still try and then repeat his sore loser act anyway.

[ Parent ]
not saying
A i agree with it (i don't) or B it would be easy.  but CT has a DEEP Dem bench, in a three or four way primary (with a few lieberman allies running alla special-K) he could possibly pull it off.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
I think he would struggle to get 30%
I suppose theoretically that could be enough but it would need several allies to run proper campaigns rather than just be stalking horses.

[ Parent ]
I've argued often there that Lieberman's odds in a Dem primary are better than many think......
I despise Holy Joe and want him out, but I've seen enough elections to know how tough an incumbent can be within his own party.

As doug tuttle points out, Joe has a lot of floor votes to sell to primary voters, and he can ameliorate his McCain endorsement with an early endorsement of Obama's reelection.  He keeps voting with his party on the floor going forward, and in the meantime he raises 8-figures, i.e., $10 million-plus.  And then he announces he's running as a Democrat.

You know what happens then?  Chris Murphy and other major players look at Joe's warchest, voting record, and endorsement of Obama, and revisit whether they want to challenge him.  Does Murphy want to surrender a safe House seat and his rising star status within the House at the risk of ending up empty-handed?  Same goes for others.  It's easy to argue in the a abstract that "Joe can't win the primary," but if you're actually a prospective major challenger, you're looking at all the factors more closely and with a more worried eye.  And then you have the inevitable weaker challengers who step in and split the anti-Joe vote anyway, with or without an establishment candidate challenging Lieberman.

It wouldn't be surprising at all if Murphy and others are scared off from running at all, and weak remaining challengers split the hardcore anti-Joe vote and let Lieberman slip through.

Let me be clear, I'm not suggesting Lieberman is likely to survive a Dem primary.  I take the position his odds are less than 50-50.  But I think they're closer to 50-50 than most people think.  And further, his only chance at reelection is, in fact, through the Democratic primary; he can't win as an indie again, and he can't win a GOP primary.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Lieberman
I think his only chance is if a crowded field splits the anti-Lieberman vote and he squeaks through with 30-35%. See Dan Burton this year.  

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Perhaps
But early doors I would bet more heavily against than that. That recent PPP release had Lieberman in such a deep hole I'm not sure any amount of cash he raises would allow him to buy a big enough shovel to dig himself out. He had just a 30% approval rating from Democrats and Murphy got a corresponding 70% of Dems in the two-way ballot test.

[ Parent ]
If supporting McCain didn't work for Gene Taylor
There's no reason it would work for Joe Lieberman.

[ Parent ]
Taylor
might even of lost votes over that stunt since it probably seemed like a desperate act by someone trying to win reelection.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
DADT is supported by a majority
of Republicans, according to the latest national polling. In CT, I bet it's a SOLID majority.

This isn't just a Democratic issue.


[ Parent ]
Oops, that should be DADT repeal is supported n/t


[ Parent ]
Sadly
I hardly doubt you'll have tea partiers crashing Republican senator's town halls demanding the repeal of DADT.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
DADT is supported by less than half
of Republicans. And only tiny minorities of indies and Dems (something like 25 and 15% respectively) want to keep DADT in place. Of all the major LGBT issues out there, this one is easily the closest thing to a slam dunk as something that moderates and liberals like while only hardcore conservatives oppose. And even Lieberman isn't dumb enough to think he can win over the teabaggers.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Who Are They Scared Of?
Nearly all Republican officeholders are more scared of the wrath of the talk radio crowd than group from the left or center wanting to end DADT.

So either it goes now or it's going to (barring a Supreme Court ruling I don't anticipate happening) be around for a while.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03


[ Parent ]
Democrat South Dakota Senator-Elect Switches to GOP
Now makes a 30-5 GOP advantage in South Dakota State Senate.

Across the country, I think he's the 6th State Rep/State Senator to switch from Dem to Rep since 11/2.

http://www.dakotavoice.com/201...


i had to call him
for an article in J-Class once.  atg least he waited until the legs started i guess, but oy.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Not cool.
  Switching parties right after the election makes you a raging hypocrite.  

24, Male, GA-05

[ Parent ]
Didn't . . .
Senator Jeffords do that about ten years ago?  I think he jumped to the Democratic caucas (while declaring himself an independent) about five or six months after being elected to a six year term as the Republican Senator from Vermont.  

[ Parent ]
true, but
Jeffords was always one of, if not the most liberal of the republicans.  plus there was no political reason for him to switch (ie not a specter) he had just won 74% and would have been safe forever.  According to my grandmother (who went to school with his wife, whom i think passed on) he's living in a nursing home in DC now and has alzheimer's fairly bad.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Is there an actual reason here?
I usually don't consider North Dakota as part of the country that is rapidly turning from DINO to Republican.  

[ Parent ]
i think you mean south dakota
north dakota is actually quite socialistic (state owned bank and movies theaters, plus oil based surpluses) so dems have a shot.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
eh
I lived in ND for 3 years. The state owns a bank and a grain elevator, but a movie theater is news to me.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
hm
For the following reasons and the fact that my philosophy regarding government's role in society is more in line with the Republican Party, I have changed my party affiliation.

He endorsed Obama in the 2008 primaries, making him the second Obama endorser in SD to switch (after Ryan Maher).

Uh, yeah. You'll last long in that crowd.


[ Parent ]
Retirements
I seriously think that Kohl, Webb and Bingaman retire and that we will likely have 2 or three surprises who decide to also hang it up. With the very likely prospect of the Senate going to the Republicans in 2012 must of these guys are gonna want do other things.  

We
stand a decent chance of holding Kohl's seat (as long as Russ Feingold stays away) and Bingaman's seats if they retire. Webb would be an alarm but if the recent PPP poll is any indication at this juncture, we stand a decent chance of holding his seat. What would really be scary if Bill Nelson retires. Our best bet there would be Alex Sink, but she's probably gunning for a 2014 rematch with Rick Scott. And Charlie Crist eliminated himself from being treated as a serious candidate.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Is there really no one better in florida?
I don't know many details about Florida politics, but seriously, the 4th biggest state in the country and we don't have anyone better than Alex Sink?

Male, VA-08

[ Parent ]
Democrats
really got annihilated here during the 90's. The problem with Florida is that literally all the Democrats are in Southeast, there are Dixicrats up in the Panhandle but don't rely on them these days. Alex Sink was our best shot of capturing the governor's office since 1998 when Buddy McKay went down in double digits against Jeb Bush. All you have is a bunch of Dem congressman in the Southeast and Debbie Wasserman Schultz is gunning for a high position in the leadership when Democrats retake the house.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
No, not really
The Florida Democratic Party is a joke. Fortunately, there's a lot of Dem leaning voters in the state (Sink got 48%, Crist/Meek 50%). I suppose Kathy Castor or Pam Iorio might not be bad candidates. Certainly better than Kendrick Meek.  

[ Parent ]
This ^
Kathy Castor would be a pretty not-terrible option, but we are seriously effed if Bill Nelson retires.... or as I like to refer to him, the "Good Senator Nelson." (as opposed to Nebraska's Wario)

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Corinne Brown will probably run if Nelson bows out
Keep in mind, she formed an exploratory committee for '10, but by then, the establishment was already coalescing around Meek. IIRC, Quinnipiac found her behind Meek by low single-digits. Of course, she'd be a DREADFUL candidate, but if Nelson retires and Sink/Wasserman-Schultz aren't interested...

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
It would be a very interesting race if . . .
Brown was challenged by Lt. Gov. (and former congressional candidate) Jennifer Carroll.  Two African-American women competing for a Senate seat.  I'm pretty sure that would be a first.  And the winner would only be the second African-American woman to ever serve in the Senate.

How much media attention would this contest receive?  

(Of course, Charlie Crist would probably enter the race as an "independent" in his unrelenting quest for a Senate seat.)  


[ Parent ]
It would surely be a marquee race of 2012
In 1986, the MD-Sen race between Barbara Mikulski and Linda Chavez was never particularly competitive, but, because it was the first U.S. Senate election waged between two women, it garnered more attention than any other match-up. Likewise, in the unlikely case that it's a Brown/Carroll showdown, I think Carroll would obliterate Brown, but it'd still get tons of press. Plus, Brown is a crazy gaffe-machine, so that'll get word-of-mouth too.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Has She Ever Done Anything?
She's been in Congress 20 years now, is only there because of a ridiculously gerrymandered seat that she's filing a lawsuit to keep only because even though it really hurts the party in Florida because she'd probably lose in any other kind of district.

Sounds like dead wood to me.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03


[ Parent ]
What about Kathy Castor?
She seems like she'd be a good candidate from what I know of her - am I missing something? Because I never see her name pushed as a possible candidate for higher office.  

[ Parent ]
I hope she runs
again. I really like her as a candidate, and Rick Scott should easily be beatable in a better year for Democrats. He won by 1 point in a very pro-GOP year, and something tells me he will be very controversial once in office.

[ Parent ]
Let me be perfectly clear.
Alex Sink SHOULD NOT run for a statewide office again in Florida.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Who do you suggest in her place?


[ Parent ]
Webb ran for the Senate
when most people didn't expect Democrats to take the majority. I doubt very much that will play any role in his decision.

Also, I'd wager the odds are better than 50/50 that Dems will hold on to the Senate in 2012. (Literally, I'll wager that, if you want to take me up on the offer.)

We can lose up to 3 seats and still hold the majority. In a presidential year, with high turnout, that's quite plausible, if not likely. 2014 is the iffier proposition, IMO.


[ Parent ]
we can easily keep the Senate
in 2012. And there are a few pickup opportunities, like Scott Brown's seat, John Ensign's seat, and Olympia Snowe's seat (I don't think she'll win a primary).

And in 2014, we have few pickup opportunities...but other than Begich and Hagan, neither do they. Of course, I'm only saying these things based on the information I have right now.


[ Parent ]
I dunno about Webb.
I may not agree with him as with the Senators up here in NJ, but he's very intriguing and inspiring.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Kohl's seat
Democrats have three obvious candidates in Ron Kind, Tom Barrett, and Russ Feingold, in that order. Republicans only obvious candidate is Paul Ryan. Would Ryan really give up the Budget Committee chair for a Senate run? If he didn't, who would run for Reps? AG JB Van Hollen or LG Rebecca Kleefish? Would they be viable candidates, or do ya'll think they would look for a more Ron Johnson like candidate, or a state legislator? What about Leinenkugel?  

[ Parent ]
Ryan
ain't going to give up his gavel on the budget committee. He's been itching to force Obama to sign that "creative" budget of his. They'll find someone don't worry. Ron Johnson might of been a once in a blue moon candidate though since most self funders like to oversaturate the airwaves.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Wisconsin
Who knows about Wisconsin. Who would have thought that an unknown bussinessman out ouskosh would dominante an 18 year incumbent and defeat him.  Up and down the ticket in Wisconsin the GOP won. Even La Follete had to sweat re-election.

Something is in the water in Wisconsin lately and its not good for Democrats. I seriously see this state going Republican in 2012.


[ Parent ]
It's possible...
Wisconsin was Kerry's weakest state.  He won it by less than 1%.

Here's what was in the water in Wisconsin this year... enthusiasm gap... a massive one.  Minorities, women and students stayed home.  If that's still in the water in 2012, then we are in trouble.  Hopefully, that will not be the case.

However, if any of the Kerry states were to flip, the most likely candidate would be Wisconsin.


[ Parent ]
Gore and Kerry
only won Wisconsin by one point so its definitely possible! If the suburbs side with the GOP in 2012, Obama's going to need his campaign to squeeze out every single vote out of Milwaukee to pull it out.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
If he is losing WI
He has probably already lost.

[ Parent ]
Wisconsin is very white.
He could theoretically lose Ohio and Wisconsin while holding Michigan, PA, and VA.  Colorado has a growing Latino vote, although I doubt we'll see Colorado going more Dem than Wisconsin anytime soon.

More interesting: could Wisconsin go R while Iowa went D?  Iowa is whiter, but it also is an agricultural economy while Wisconsin is participating much more deeply in Rust Belt pain. I think that probably both stay D, but I could imagine Iowa giving slightly better numbers to Dems than Wisconsin does in 2012.  Don't think it's likely, but do think it's possible.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08


[ Parent ]
it's a swing state
no party has truly dominated it over the years. And yes, it could go Republican. But you can't base future election results SOLELY on one election cycle.

[ Parent ]
swing state?
hey, that's the name of the blog :D...

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Republicans & 2012
Van Hollen could be viable, having been the sole Republican to win statewide office in a good Dem year in 2006.  As a Wisconsin native, I can't say I know of one obvious state legislator who would stand out as a viable candidate at the outset, but then again, Ron Johnson didn't stand out to anyone when he started, and we saw what happened with him (of course, I doubt any have the level of Johnson's money and the outsider nature that worked well this year).  If none were considered exceptional in 2010, I don't know who would be so in 2012 (there are more Republican legislators in the pool with the takeover of the Assembly & State Senate, but those are also a lot of newbies).

Kleefisch would be a disaster for the GOP -- she's been making a lot of comments connecting her Christianity to her governance, and she got in trouble for anti-gay remarks during the election.  This didn't get a lot of publicity since most of the attention in the state was focused on the Governor & Senate races, and the Lt. Governor position in Wisconsin does not have much responsibility.  I'd bet most people in the state have no idea who our current Lt. Governor is.  Had it been a more relevant position (ie. president of State Senate, being in charge of state agencies), her comments would have been a much bigger deal.  Heck, I'd think the Wisconsin Democratic Party is actively hoping Kleefisch tries a statewide run.

Here's an article on Kleefisch post-election:

http://host.madison.com/ct/new...

Wisconsin is going to be more Dem-friendly in 2012.  Lots of traditionally Dem-leaning voters stayed home, and it won't take many coming back to the polls (especially at the UW campuses across the state) to boost Dem numbers.  I have to believe two years under Republican control in the state (and particularly conservative control -- Tommy Thompson wasn't that conservative of a Governor) could also push some of those swing voters back to the Dems.


[ Parent ]
State Sen. Ted Kanavas
Whats special about him? He was talked about as a candidate for Feingold's seat. He retired this year.

[ Parent ]
By way of Reid Epstein of Newsday--Bishop closing
Bishop w/in 90 of Altschuler in #ny01. RA challenged 178 more ballots than TB. TB spox: "I feel like we're winning." http://bit.ly/cXCNDe

Long way to go here . . . .
Smithtown (pro-Altschuler) and Southhampton and portions of East Hampton (pro-Bishop) have now been counted.  When East Hampton is finished, Bishop should move into the lead.  The size of the lead is critical, however, because the remaining election districts, including Southold (pro-Bishop) snd Brookhaven (pro-Altschuler) lean slightly Republican.

Remember what happened in NY SD-07, in northern Long Island.  The trailing Dem incumbent (Thompson) looked like he was rapidly closely the gap with his challenger (Martins) during the early stages of absentee ballot counting.  But that was because election officials began the process by reviewing pro-Dem election districts.  It now appears that Republican Msrtins is on the verge of victory in that race.  

Interestingly, in the NY-01 absentee ballot counting, Altschuler appears to have way underperformed his election day numbers in his hometown of Smithtown while Bishop has underperformed his election day numbers in his hometowm of Southhampton.  Things that make you go hmmm . . .


[ Parent ]
I think Bishop will eek out a very narrow victory
That's why Altschuler's camp is lashing out and challenging way more ballots.

And Brookhaven is probably going to net Altschuler nothing, the town is no longer the Republican bastion it once was.  It fared the best in 2009 for Dems, when they were getting wiped out across the board. He had his chance to gain votes  in Smithtown, and he blew it.

 

21,Democrat, NY-02, male


[ Parent ]
You're right about Smithtown
I have family that live down there and it's a pretty heavy GOP area. Shocked that Randy didn't pick up a good chunk there, wonder what caused that. Maybe they are just happy with how things are going? Pretty affluent area and Bishop is fairy non-offensive.  

[ Parent ]
Johnson, not Thompson (eom)


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Placer County FINALLY counted its ballots
They hadn't provided any updates since November 3rd, and they were by far Cooley's biggest hope for a while now: SSP's last update projected Cooley would pick-up 8,886 votes in the county - far more than elsewhere.

Well, Placer has counted all of its 28,000 remaining ballots... and Cooley picked-up slightly more than that: a net 10256 (18024 versus 7768).

But with so many Cooley votes now out of the way and him not overperforming by that much, very very hard to see where he gains the rest of the votes he needs.

Especially as Riverside County just counted 4000 ballots today, and Cooley only gained 70 votes.  

Twitter.com/Taniel


Added to the other
section but Joe Miller isn't going anywhere.  He really is a sore loser..

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11...

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...


Mike Lee, Mark & Tom Udall are cousins
Utah Sen.-Elect Mike Lee is Mark & Tom Udall's second cousin, along with second cousins to Gordon Smith. I knew the Udalls and Smith were cousins, I didn't know Lee was also related to them. Just be in this family if you want to be elected to the Senate (even though it doesn't protect you from losing re-election)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M...
Lee is a second cousin to current U.S. Senators Mark Udall of Colorado and Tom Udall of New Mexico, as well as former Senator Gordon H. Smith of Oregon


more
but not better udalls.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Didn't even surprise me
Basically, if your family has been Mormon for 100+ years, you're related to everyone else whose family has been Mormon for 100+ years.
Though seriously, the Udall-Lees are one of the largest and most prolific political families in American history. Check out this neat chart

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
Wow . . .
Political nepotism par excellence.  

[ Parent ]
Heh
Back when Grijalva looked like he might be the next Interior Secretary, there was talk of local attorney Laura Udall, the daughter of former Reps. Mo and Stewart's less political brother David and the cousin of Sens. Tom and Mark, was talked up as a possible candidate for her uncles' ancestoral seat.

I don't think she was actually seriously interested, but the chief argument for her campaign was basically that with all these Udalls running around the political scene in other states, it's time to have a Udall representing Arizona again.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
Linda McMahon Still Wasting Money
CT and NY residents, get ready to see Linda McMahon on your TVs again Tuesday. She will be running an ad thanking her voters. http://dennishouse.wordpress.c...

Putting it online would make more sense
Meg Whitman put her thank you ad online, Linda should do the same. An ad on television after losing just looks silly.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
she either has too much money
or no sense on how to spend it.  a thank you ad seems like a good idea, but people are still sick of these ads and thankful they're gone.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Sounds to me
That she plans to run for office again soon. Senate 2012? Ha!

[ Parent ]
Maffei cuts lead to 303
But still a much tougher road than Bishop:


With half of the votes left to count, he'll need to keep that pace, or even do better. That's because Wayne Co. -- where Buerkle took 63 percent of the vote on Election Day -- has yet to count any of its absentees. If she takes 63 percent of those absentees, and Maffei takes another 521 votes out of Onondaga County with the remaining absentees, the Republican would win by 135 votes.

http://hotlineoncall.nationalj...


what's reasonable "I want a recount" territory?
I don't know the NY rules on this -- but if Maffei is behind by say 100 votes when counting is done, is it reasonable to suggest that a recount find sufficient spoiled/missed/etc D ballots?

[ Parent ]
I would think anything under 1000


[ Parent ]
I think anything under 200
would warrant a reasonable recount. Remember in IL Bean condeded being down just over 200 so there is a limit as to how many votes can reasonably be picked up. I think in the end Buerkle wins by about the same amount Walsh took out Bean.

[ Parent ]
Debbie Stabenow
She is going to take over the chair of the Agricultural Committee. Conrad chose to stay as Budget chair (surprise surprise). Think this will help her reelection chances in 2012, or will she just go by the way of Blanche Lincoln?

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


Stabenow will be fine
In a presidential year, she won't have many problems.  

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
She could have problems
if she decides to nap. Unless there's a wave even worse than this year's, it seems like Michigan is a Democratic enough state that she should be fine as long as she works for it. And if she doesn't work her ass off to keep her seat after this year, I am just not sure what to say.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I know
I know folks don't have the best impression of Michigan, but Michigan ain't Arkansas.  Not even close.  At the state level, it's purple.  At the national level, it's blue.  This is the total opposite of Arkansas.

[ Parent ]
CT-Sen: Lieberman vs. McMahon vs. Kennedy Jr.?
If Ted Kennedy Jr. wants to be a Senator
He should move and run in Massachusetts against Scott Brown. His name will be enough to deter any carpetbagging allegations, and he can run as Generic Kennedy Democrat, which never loses in MA.

Linda McMahon is damaged goods and has a ceiling of about 45%. Unless they know for certain it's going to be a three-way with Lieberman as an independent, Republicans should look for someone else (Tom Foley? Jodi Rell? Rob Simmons?)

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
Conn. Republicans
They really have their backs against the wall. You're right that McMahon has the low ceiling, and she would shed support to Lieberman, who was the de facto Republican in 2006, in a three-way race. Jodi Rell is by far the best the Republicans have to offer in Connecticut. However, she would get teabagged to death for being; pro-choice, pro=estate tax, AND pro-homosexual unions. That just is not acceptable to the modern Republican Party. (She will also be 66 in 2012, which isn't a spring chicken). Simmons has the 2-time loser taint on him. Losing in a D+6 district in a Democratic wave is excusable, but losing a primary to Linda McMahon certainly adds quite a bit of taint to him. Foley might be an interesting choice, but his close ties to Bush, his inability to win a Republican-held Governorship in the biggest Republican wave in recent memory, and the overwhelming liberal bent of the state makes him a serious underdog, but he might be the most likely candidate.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
In all fairness, McMahon is also pro-choice and pro-civil union (and pro-TARP)
In fact, McMahon was probably the most moderate among she, Simmons, and Schiff. I definitely think Rell could comfortably win an a primary...it's indeed just the problem of having Lieberman around to siphon-off a double-digit # of Republicans. If Rell ran, with Lieberman running Indie, and then someone as strong as "generic D" (Murphy's a good example, Bysiewicz might be weaker) running too, you'd probably find a race like...

D - 41
I - 32
R - 27

Lieberman - 19/29/12 = 20%
Rell - 8/43/85 = 40%
Generic D - 73/28/3 = 40%

If McMahon's the nominee...

Lieberman - 22/33/16 = 24%
McMahon - 4/32/79 = 33%
Generic D - 74/35/5 = 43%

If Lieberman somehow wins the Dem nomination...

Lieberman - 84/46/12 = 52%
Rell - 16/54/88 = 48%

Lieberman - 93/52/16 = 59%
McMahon - 7/48/84 = 41%

If Lieberman retires...

Generic D - 87/47/4 = 52%
Rell - 13/53/96 = 48%

Generic D - 94/55/8 = 59%
McMahon - 6/45/92 = 41%

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
Here's how I see the CT-Sen field for Reps
1st tier: Jodi Rell
2nd Tier: Rob Simmons, Chris Shays, Tom Foley, Christopher Meek (businessman)
3rd Tier: Linda McMahon, Dan Debicella, Michael Fedele
4th tier: Joe Lieberman

[ Parent ]
Dan Debicella?
He's in his mid-30s, has little legislative experience, and has never won a race outside of his small state senate district.

I realize he's only in your third tier, but seeing him even there makes me think: the GOP bench ain't all that deep here, is it? ;-)


[ Parent ]
NC-02 recount numbers due in a couple of hours
Etheridge has scheduled a press conference for 3, perhaps to concede, as the numbers are not encouraging for him (down 1,500 votes.) Ellmers was at freshmen orientation this week, so it would be pretty awkward for her if she would up losing.

Meanwhile, the gap is down to single digits in NY-01, as reported above. That might be the race that keeps us going into December this year.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


And by single digits
I completely meant double digits. 84 to be precise. So much for passing 1st grade math.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
She won
Its unofficially official but Renee "The Joke" Ellmers (R-Michigan) will now "represent" a 52% Obama District in North Carolina.  At least for two years.

I'm working on some maps that shore her up, but, it will come at the expense (GOP-wise) of making Kissell and/or McIntyre stronger.

http://projects.newsobserver.c...

28, male, NC-13 formerly NC-01, 04, 05, 07, 11


[ Parent ]
Assuming Ellmers is a reasonably competent congresswoman
Shoring up NC-02 for her will be the legislature's top priority. It won't be too hard, because the current district is gerrymandered to elect a Democrat. The GOP might prefer long term to dismantle NC-07 or NC-08, but as long as Ellmers is voting the right way and paying NRCC dues, there's almost an obligation to help her out. Jokish as he campaign was, she did take down an incumbent in an Obama district, so the legislature will give her some credit for that.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Pretty big assumption


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
happens often...
Usually there's a couple of stray races that don't get resolved by orientation and the freshman goes (or if it's an open seat, they both go) to orientation.  I believe both Jennings and Buchanan went in Nov '06, just one example.  Happens every two years if I recall, and it's not considered too awkward I guess.

[ Parent ]

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