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CA-AG: Maybe Our Last Update?

by: jeffmd

Thu Nov 18, 2010 at 12:34 AM EST


Hopefully, this is the last update we'll have to make about the Attorney General's race!

We went through and did another county-by-county canvass, and we now have Kamala Harris (D) leading Steve Cooley (R) by 37,662 votes, 4,251,331 to 4,213,669. This count is about 100,000 votes ahead of the SoS.

Again we sync up the estimates, and my estimation of the number of unprocessed ballots differs from the UBR for the following counties:

  • Butte: +222; the county reports 18,229 ballots left.
  • Del Norte: -1,002 for votes added since November 8.
  • El Dorado: -1,795 for votes added since November 9.
  • Fresno: -8,687 for votes added since November 12.
  • Imperial: -6,089 for votes added since November 6.
  • Kern: -4,831 for votes added since November 8.
  • Marin: -19,108 for votes added since November 8.
  • Mariposa: -267; this is the county's "final update."
  • Nevada: -4,730; the county estimated 4,730 outstanding on November 8 but has added 6,692 votes since then.
  • Orange: -53,404; the county reports 912 ballots left.
  • Placer: +27,956; vote counts have not been updated since November 3.
  • Riverside: -11,300; the county reports 18,400 ballots left.
  • San Diego: -44,970; the county reports 27,000 ballots left.
  • San Francisco: -18,892 for votes added since November 8.
  • San Luis Obispo: -826 for votes added since November 12.
  • San Mateo: -26,812; this is the county's "final unofficial results."
  • Santa Clara: -18,100; the county estimated 18,100 outstanding on November 10 but has added 18,174 votes since then.
  • Tehama: -1,976 for votes added since November 10.
  • Ventura: -6,142 for votes added since November 11.
  • Yolo: -9,791; the county reports 0 ballots unprocessed.

Therefore, we estimate 428,179 ballots left unprocessed (compared to the SoS' 671,594.)

The remaining territory is pretty much a wash, with our estimates having Harris gaining 47 votes to pad her margin.

As with last time, the ballots reporting have been more friendly to Kamala than before; she's doing 0.36% better than we expected her to based on the November 13 canvass and 0.65% better than expected based on the November 8 canvass. Here are the relative swings in each county since the November 13th and 8th updates.

County 11/8 - 11/13 11/13 - 11/17 11/8 - 11/17
San Benito 1.98% 0.00% 1.98%
Alameda 0.75% 0.65% 1.39%
Orange 1.30% 0.05% 1.35%
Nevada 1.42% -0.34% 1.08%
Sacramento 0.70% 0.36% 1.06%
Fresno -0.08% 1.12% 1.04%
San Mateo 0.55% 0.43% 0.98%
Monterey 0.93% 0.00% 0.93%
San Francisco 0.38% 0.30% 0.68%
Inyo 0.64% 0.00% 0.64%
Del Norte 0.00% 0.63% 0.63%
Contra Costa 0.71% -0.18% 0.53%
Ventura 0.12% 0.41% 0.53%
Riverside 0.10% 0.40% 0.50%
San Diego -0.04% 0.51% 0.47%
Merced 0.45% 0.00% 0.45%
San Luis Obispo 0.39% 0.02% 0.41%
Kern -0.03% 0.37% 0.34%
Kings 0.28% 0.00% 0.28%
Santa Barbara 0.28% 0.00% 0.28%
Santa Clara 0.03% 0.23% 0.26%
San Bernardino 0.24% 0.00% 0.24%
Mariposa 0.00% 0.24% 0.24%
Marin 0.18% 0.00% 0.18%
Shasta 0.10% 0.00% 0.10%
Tuolumne 0.00% -0.08% -0.08%
Yolo -0.15% 0.00% -0.15%
Los Angeles -0.33% 0.18% -0.15%
Siskiyou -0.16% 0.00% -0.16%
San Joaquin -0.15% -0.02% -0.16%
Imperial 0.14% -0.30% -0.17%
Solano -0.29% 0.00% -0.29%
Yuba -0.35% 0.00% -0.35%
Tehama -0.64% 0.27% -0.37%
Santa Cruz -0.43% 0.00% -0.43%
Amador -0.58% 0.00% -0.58%
El Dorado -0.89% 0.30% -0.59%
Sutter -1.34% 0.20% -1.15%
Tulare -1.38% 0.00% -1.38%

Movers and shakers below the fold.
jeffmd :: CA-AG: Maybe Our Last Update?
County Total Harris Cooley Unproc Harris Cooley Margin
Los Angeles 2,135,078 1,135,803 842,854 93,590 49,787 36,946 12,841
Sonoma 138,383 79,052 45,321 35,500 20,280 11,626 8,653
Mendocino 19,097 10,321 6,159 12,358 6,679 3,986 2,693
Marin 102,499 63,668 31,727 7,942 4,933 2,458 2,475
Contra Costa 317,509 169,278 125,519 16,982 9,054 6,713 2,340
Monterey 87,434 47,784 32,266 11,563 6,319 4,267 2,052
Santa Cruz 87,349 54,033 24,218 5,655 3,498 1,568 1,930
Humboldt 35,966 18,011 13,436 13,387 6,704 5,001 1,703
Napa 28,480 14,229 11,711 17,877 8,932 7,351 1,581
San Francisco 254,252 180,762 51,748 2,484 1,766 506 1,260
Solano 109,963 55,825 45,385 5,498 2,791 2,269 522
Imperial 24,344 11,807 10,247 3,097 1,502 1,304 198
Lake 14,980 6,585 6,430 5,372 2,361 2,306 56
San Benito 15,164 7,007 6,759 200 92 89 3
Del Norte 7,878 2,905 4,049 6 2 3 -1
Merced 46,263 18,698 23,540 400 162 204 -42
San Luis Obispo 100,062 37,545 52,335 902 338 472 -133
Sacramento 392,703 176,034 184,727 8,774 3,933 4,127 -194
Orange 842,060 261,964 506,586 912 284 549 -265
Santa Barbara 119,282 51,662 57,104 6,536 2,831 3,129 -298
Tehama 19,093 5,141 11,478 1,023 275 615 -340
San Joaquin 146,789 60,116 71,201 6,844 2,803 3,320 -517
Sutter 23,325 6,849 14,240 1,694 497 1,034 -537
Amador 15,640 4,334 9,238 1,741 482 1,028 -546
El Dorado 73,928 21,681 44,647 2,105 617 1,271 -654
Ventura 247,505 96,609 132,181 6,414 2,504 3,425 -922
Stanislaus 110,462 41,587 59,205 6,980 2,628 3,741 -1,113
Tulare 76,763 22,316 48,368 3,350 974 2,111 -1,137
Shasta 59,536 15,995 37,152 3,400 913 2,122 -1,208
Calaveras 14,501 4,168 8,236 4,918 1,414 2,793 -1,380
Fresno 174,704 62,671 98,351 8,813 3,161 4,961 -1,800
Madera 27,635 8,130 16,872 5,806 1,708 3,545 -1,837
Kern 163,889 44,444 103,680 5,371 1,457 3,398 -1,941
Butte 56,937 20,635 29,626 18,229 6,607 9,485 -2,879
Riverside 455,493 166,883 251,301 18,400 6,741 10,152 -3,410
San Diego 838,571 323,600 435,683 27,000 10,419 14,028 -3,609
San Bernardino 393,156 145,444 207,987 29,000 10,728 15,342 -4,613
Placer 107,703 31,998 66,112 28,056 8,335 17,222 -8,886
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CA-AG: Maybe Our Last Update? | 19 comments
I think this race is over.
I suspect Cooley will concede within a week.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
Having almost half a million ballots uncounted
at this point is outrageous.  
Bear in Mind....
That almost all that remain are provisionals. They have to be checked before they can actually be processed and counted.

Also, when you are talking about 10 million votes (which will be close to the final tally), 500K isn't as crazy-high as it sounds.

"You share your young with the wolves of the nation, there's nothing left til you pray for salvation."

--Black Rebel Motorcycle Club

"American X"

[ Parent ]
Only 3 comments?
Does no one care about this race any more?

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
Obviously there is an assumption
That Harris will win.
[ Parent ]
Yeah, everyone's like
Harris will win, just get this over with already so we all can move on!

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
I'm very interested but a little tired of long recounts

I feel good looking Harris ahead.

Now I hope and wait some little good now from New York.

[ Parent ]
good new :)

[ Parent ]
Thank you for your post!
I've been following this race every single day. With such a narrow margin (30,000 out of millions of votes) I won't feel comfortable until its all done. I still can't believe how many times the person leading has shifted during this race. Its going to be awesome having an attorney general who is strongly in favor of gay rights rather than a homophobic bigot.
Brown had some strong gay rights views
Didn't he?  I remember he didn't defend prop 8 in court.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
Yeah, Brown was pro-gay rights
but of course it's good to still have a pro-equality AG in the midst of the Prop 8 suit, lol.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I was talking about Steve Cooley
Brown was great for gay rights as an attorney general. Cooley said he'd try to aggressively defend Prop 8 if elected. I live in SF and Harris has been amazing for gay rights as our DA. On Harris' website marriage equality is listed FIRST among all issues.
[ Parent ]
Not that it means much,
as the SoS site seems so out of date, but Harris is now up there by 29.4k as of this morning.

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/maps/at...

Now it's 33.5k n/t

[ Parent ]
Harris has almost certainly won.
It's nice to have something to feel good about before the Age of Unreason commences in Washington DC in the new year.

More interesting news from the LA Times today:

"Strikingly, almost one in five California voters said they would never cast a ballot for a Republican. Among Latinos, that rose to almost one in three. Only 5% of California voters were as emphatically anti-Democrat.

"'I don't know how any Republican thinks they can win in California after looking at this,' said GOP pollster Linda DiVall...."

This is what happens when a party systematically pisses off liberals, moderates, Latina/os, African Americans, Native Americans, and LGBIT voters. Or at least, this is what happens in California.

What a hole the Republicans have dug for themselves! A huge majority of Meg Whitman voters believe that the way for Republicans to win in the future is to nominate even stronger conservatives. Yet an even larger majority of non-Whitman voters believe just the opposite. And of course the non-Whitman voters outnumber the Whitman voters by 12%. The Republicans are screwed in California.

I wonder why the tactics that are working nationally are failing so badly in California. I suppose that at least part of the answer is in demographics. Sorry to have gotten off-topic!

I want to go home! :'(


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Come on home!
From Texas or Arizona or wherever it is.

Kamala Harris now leads by over 43,000 votes on the Secretary of State site. The race grows less and less close. I see no reason to think that the margin will shrink as the remaining votes are processed.

By the way, I said above that there were 12% fewer Meg Whitman voters than others, but actually the divide is far steeper than that. Whitman lost to Brown by a little more than 12.5%, but she only scored 41% of the total vote. Whitman voters are outnumbered by non-Whitman voters by about 18%. And those non-Whitman voters are turned off by the "true conservatives" that the Republicans keep wanting to nominate. So California will stay deep blue for the foreseeable future.

Come back if you can, but maybe your vote and voice are needed where you are.

[ Parent ]
It's hopeless here in Texas.
And I still need to eat, so I need a job. With fundies controlling the asylum in Austin, my chances of finding a decent job here in Texas, in biotech, are going from paper-thin to virtually zero. Maybe I can find something temporarily in Arizona (where fundies are far less prevalent at least), but my ultimate goal is "California, here I come!"

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Link
L.A. Times story

Hmm... I would've said that this means get ready for Delaware-like fun when California Republicans start nominating the REAL crazies...

But then I suddenly remembered they passed the top two primary system back in June, so that from here on out, the general election will only have two names on the ballot, and multiple Republicans can run in the wide-open primary, so it remains to be seen if the crazy candidates can finish in the top two.

[ Parent ]
CA-AG: Maybe Our Last Update? | 19 comments

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