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IL-08: Final Count Shows Walsh Up by 292 Votes

by: James L.

Tue Nov 16, 2010 at 8:29 PM EST


The counting is finally over:

By a miniscule margin of 292 votes, GOP challenger Joe Walsh emerged Tuesday as the apparent winner over U.S. Rep. Melissa Bean in their nail-biting 8th District congressional race.

Walsh, a Tea Party-backed conservative, led the three-term Democrat by 347 votes at the beginning of the day, but absentee and provisional ballots tallied Tuesday by election officials narrowed that margin even further.

There's no word on whether Bean will seek a recount, but she has a press conference scheduled for tomorrow. Walsh, whose campaign was most noted before election day for its dramatic implosion, looks primed to be a one-term wonder before he meets the buzz-saw of the Democratic-controlled redistricting machine in Illinois.

UPDATE: Via the comments, Bean has conceded.
James L. :: IL-08: Final Count Shows Walsh Up by 292 Votes
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IL-08: Final Count Shows Walsh Up by 292 Votes | 40 comments
this district is purple enough
that we can have a better democrat than bean.  

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
Except that it's a white-collar district...
That went 55% for Bush in 2004. Believe it or not, Bean was a pretty good fit for her district...

However, this may change in redistricting. If Dems in Springfield decide to alter IL-08 to make it more Dem heavy and progressive, then your wish will be their command.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Yup, it's most definitely a red district, not purple, in current form......
Kerry and Gore both lost IL-08 by double-digit margins.  Obama won 56-44, but that's misleading home-state grade-inflation.  The Illinois and Hawaii PVIs skew more Democratic than a lot of those districts really are (although the Hawaii seats are plenty Democratic anyway) because of Obama's favorite-son status.  Same thing goes for Texas, where some PVIs for a decade have misleadingly skewed Republican because of Dubya.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Well, let's get Bean to run again in 2012!
I damn well hope this "mile-wide-inch-deep support" thing is true.

Of course, that depends on whether we make it true.  I say we do just that.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
I remember when most suburban Chicago districts
were like 70-30 R. I have a vague memory of some old Almanac of American Politics eds from the '80s speaking of the R suburban machine in the area.

If tea partiers have some success keeping Rs away from social issues, Walsh with 2 years of incumbency won't be a pushover (assuming current district lines).

[ Parent ]
I don't think anybody should assume
anything close to current district lines.

By next Halloween, we should know which 4-6 Republicans will be getting a scare from the IL Dems.

That might take a little bit of the sting out of the GOP-controlled bloodbath we'll likely see elsewhere. . .

[ Parent ]
If this district becomes a "sink" for R voters
then we should be thankful for candidates like Bean, who could win a more R version of this district, with the help of President Obama atop the ticket.
[ Parent ]
I agree.
It all depends on what type of district it is. If she has the chance to run in something like her old district, which was basically red, then we shouldn't be afraid of supporting her or someone like her. If it's a more friendly Democratic district, we should want someone who is a little bit better than Bean on some issues. It's that simple.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
House
7 Districts undeclared.

IL-08, NC-02, TX-27 - GOP will win.
CA-11, CA-20 - Dems will win.
NY-25 - toss up. If absentess break for Dem Maffei better than election day vote he will probably fall over the line.
NY-01 - If there are some ticket splitters Bishop may well win. Bishop claims there has been in previous years.

2010 Race Tracker Wiki

NC-02 was already called for Ellmers per CNN n/t


Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
yep
but Etheridge has called for, and got, a recount.

2010 Race Tracker Wiki
[ Parent ]
It won't get reversed, odds are 1 in a million or less......
The margin is too big to find that many one-sided mistakes in a recount.

Etheridge can get his seat back in 2012.

Any Democrat who lost in a district with large numbers of black voters has a great shot at getting his/her seat back in 2012.  Black turnout will be a record high, I'm confident even higher than in 2008.

As an aside, some here have mentioned Driehaus, and yes he's another one like that.  His 7-point loss was a lot better than anyone projected, so he has a real shot if he wants to go for it.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
It's not that hard to make NC-02 more Republican
Etheridge is probably done.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Yup, like others here I repeatedly forget about redistricting. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
NC-02
She doesn't seem like a particularly strong candidate. Ethridge seems to have lost in part due to his encounter with Breitbart's goons. Now it is a shame the Ethridge didn't rough up but not injure them  (for the comical relief of seeing an old Congressman putting some 20ish punk in a headlock) as that seems like it had a certain hand in his defeat. Even in a redistricting scenario I could see something where she is defeated in 2012 by a mainstream Democrat but then a mainstream Republican takes the seat back in 2014 and holds it for several cycles.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
[ Parent ]
Why would
a Democrat win the seat only to lose it two years later? Are you speaking of a situation where the Republicans create a district that is friendly for Elmers only to have her lose it because of Obama being at the top of the ticket but then to have a Republican take it back when he's not on the ticket in 2014?

On a somewhat related note, it's absolutely nuts that nobody is paying a price for these tactics. I'm all for tough questioning, but outright harassment? And need I mention the threats and violence that occurred during the health care debate? Short of becoming patrolmen, there's only so much that the leaders of these parties can do, but remember, assholes like McCarthy and Cantor actively encouraged this crap. Maybe the partisan in me is actively not blocking something, but when have Democratic leaders ever condoned, let alone encouraged, something like this?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
North Carolina 2nd
Right now, its about 30% black. It's really easy to convert it into something that is less than 15% black, and goes from R+2 to R+9.
[ Parent ]
Exactly
That is exactly what I am saying. I am saying that they create say an R+4 district for her and because she is a weak candidate (in theory) and African-American voters vote in a higher than normal amount  in 2012 (again in theory) she is defeated. Then in 2014 without the high AA turnout and a more mid-term normal electorate a generic Republican wins that seat. I can easily see something like that happen.

I agree with you on the videotaping thing. While I am all about tough questions ambushing people in public with a camera is a bad precedent (both sides do this). Set up a time for your questions or actually do a real debate with your opponent where these questions will be asked. Ambushing people in public with a camera leads to a bad environment. I am fine with having trackers at all events though that is different as trackers shouldn't provoke anyone. Now I wish Ethridge would have put that punk in a headlock ala Nolan Ryan and Robin Ventura. Would have been funny and ruined this kid's "street credibility".  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
jesspolitico tweets that Bean has conceded. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
Confirmed
Lame.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
Meh, he's guaranteed one-and-done. Not one I'm worried about going forward. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Especially given we have the trifecta in Illinois
I hope Republicans enjoy their Illinois seats for the short time they have them!

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Losing by less than 300 votes
and closing, but no call for a recount. It's sad Melissa, you really do owe it to the people that have given you their money and their time to leave no stone unturned in such a close race.
[ Parent ]
Did anyone else know
That Walsh ran against Sidney Yates in 1996, and ran as a social liberal? He lost 63-37
Yeah
I did an internship on the Hill this spring and ran into Jan Schakowsky during one of my last days there. We started talking IL politics and she mentioned that he actually ran an interesting campaign against Yates (who retired after that cycle and was succeeded by Schakowsky). Yates had a Phil Crane problem apparently (not being in the district often) and Walsh rode his bike around the district asking "Where's Sid"? Didn't work, apparently.

It's evidence of the fact that he's a huckster (the local GOP in IL-8 stayed far away from him for that reason) and if anything will be a one-termer--if the GOP doesn't beat him in a primary, the Democrats will.

[ Parent ]
GET HIM TO SWITCH PARTIES
LOL

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
uhh

I'm sure he can run as progressive in the next IL-08 district :)

It is sad to see democrats losing against candidates like this.

[ Parent ]
In all seriousness
he does seem like one of the open votes Democrats should be doing to on economic issues, Schilling too, they both seem to be rather populist politicians, meaning they have a bit of a pro-labor to progressive streak running in their economic views. Richard Hanna and Nan Hayworth too are going to be some of the critical moderates Democrats will need on board, that and I think Rigell over in VA-02 will be an unpleasant surprise to local teabaggers, (this guy did after all max out to Obama's Presidential campaign in 2008). I don't think Republicans can maintain as much discipline in the majority as they did in the minority, especially with so many holding marginal seats. So I wouldn't write off the next years as complete deadlock; I think some moderates and new Republicans are ready and willing to compromise rather than obstruct, and to a degree I think realpolitik leaders in the House caucus like Cantor, know that the Republicans can't simply pander to the teapartiers and spend the next two years obstructing everything and trying to repeal healthcare, and then expect to get rewarded in the 2012 elections.  
[ Parent ]
Rigell gave to Obama?
I didn't know that.

I wonder how you end up going from maxing out a donation to running as a candidate for a party that wants to deny him a second term in less than two years.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
He
claimed he wanted to stop Hillary from getting the nomination.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
That's what he said!


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Walsh
"... and we don't hear the ladies crying 'cause the story's sad ..."

Sorry, couldn't resist!  

Agree this seems like a re-winnable seat next time.  We really need to start focusing on all the Republican freshmen who turned seats by low single-digit numbers.  We certainly ought to be able to take 20+ back in 2012.

Interestingly, redistricting may not be the boon that it seems on first glance.  The Republicans took over so many seats held by moderate to conservative democrats that they might not really be able to do much to help themselves next time.  Plus I understand the due to the demographics they may need to eliminate Republican seats in some of the states that lose seats even though they may control the redistricting process.  I'm probably more concerned about them being able to lock in state legislative seats than U.S. House seats.

Donald Rumsfeld, Phil Crane
I wonder how they got elected to this district considering how conservative they are.
The district, or precisely the area it currently encompasses, WAS that conservative......
The district has gone from red to red/purple only in the past decade, and Bean beat Crane only because Crane, but not his politics, had become unpopular.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Rumsfeld
What about him? What was he like as a congressman?
[ Parent ]
Crane
had Oberstar like syndrome. He was just in Washington way too long for anyone's tastes. Remember Crane beat Bean handily in 2002 only for her to come back and beat her in 2004. She was also helped by a certain state senator running for the senate that year backing her candidacy.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Heck, most of the ring of suburbs around Chicago was that conservative
(Except the northern parts -- Skokie, Evanston, etc.)

While they've moved center due to migration, they're the original home of a number of older conservative leaders, e.g. Phil Crane, Henry Hyde, Dennis Hastert, Bob Michael, etc....

[ Parent ]
The southern suburbs are not that bad
pretty high black population. Western suburbs are mostly conservadems. Bean's district probably contains the most Republican parts of Cook aside from Kirk's.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Your statements are correct -- today
I'm talking about history.
[ Parent ]
IL-08: Final Count Shows Walsh Up by 292 Votes (
Really nice topic here.
leanspa
IL-08: Final Count Shows Walsh Up by 292 Votes | 40 comments

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