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SSP Daily Digest: 11/16

by: Crisitunity

Tue Nov 16, 2010 at 4:55 PM EST


AK-Sen: Nothing has really changed with the overall trajectory of the Alaska Senate race, but this is the first day that Lisa Murkowski has been able to claim a "lead" over Joe Miller (even though her victory has become increasingly clear each day). At the end of yesterday's counting, she had 92,164 votes to Miller's 90,448. 7,601 were subject to challenge but counted for her anyway (and, if Miller's lawsuit succeeds, could get reversed), but based on Murkowski's success at avoiding write-in challenges, is on track to win with or without those challenged ballots.

FL-Sen: George LeMieux, whose year-and-a-half in the Senate is about to expire, is leaving with more of a whimper than a bang, if PPP is to be believed: his approvals are 11/28 (with 61% with no opinion), including 14/24 among Republicans. He's not looking like he'd have much impact in a challenge to Bill Nelson in 2012, which he's threatened (which isn't to say that Nelson is out of the woods, as a stronger Republican will no doubt come along). Among all the appointed Senators, he's still faring better than Roland Burris (18/57) but worse than Carte Goodwin (17/22) and Ted Kaufman (38/33). (Oh, and if you're still feeling like we lost out by not having Charlie Crist win the Senate race, guess again: Bob Dole! is reporting that Crist promised him he'd caucus with the GOP if he won the 3-way race. This comes after leaks in the waning days of the race that he'd caucus with the Democrats. Somehow, I expect any day now that Ralph Nader will reveal that Crist promised him that he'd caucus with the Green Party if he won the race.)

IN-Sen: Richard Lugar made it official; he's running for re-election one more time. Lugar, who'll be 80 in 2012, probably has more to worry about in the Republican primary than he does in the general election, where aspiring Democrats would probably be more interested in the open gubernatorial seat.

OH-Sen: Sherrod Brown will probably have a tougher re-election than his initial election, but it's unclear which Republican he'll face. The two who've gotten the most press are Mary Taylor, the current Auditor and newly-elected Lt. Governor, or Rep. Jim Jordan (a religious right fave from the state's rural west), but another possibility that the article broaches is long-time Rep. Steve LaTourette, one of the House's more moderate GOPers left. Either way, if Jordan or LaTourette were to try for the promotion, that would help the state GOP decide which of their seats to vaporize in the redistricting process (although LaTourette's, in the northeast corner and surrounded by Dem seats, would be much harder to work with). Ohio's losing two seats, though, and one more Dem seat is on the chopping block, especially since the biggest population losses have come in the northeast -- the likeliest outcome seems to be consolidation of districts that sets up either a Dennis Kucinich/Marcia Fudge or Dennis Kucinich/Betty Sutton mash-up.

PA-Sen: The GOP feels like they have a shot against Bob Casey (who won by a near-overwhelming margin in 2006), given the state's turn toward the red this year. The big question, though, is who? If Tom Ridge didn't do it this year when it would have been a gimmee, he certainly isn't any likelier to do it in 2012. Hotline mentions a couple current suburban Reps., Jim Gerlach and Charlie Dent, both of whom have tenaciously held down Dem-leaning districts that would be prime open seat battles if they left. Failing that, the bench looks pretty empty; they cite state Sen. Jake Corman as interested, as well as talk radio host and behind-the-scenes player Glen Meakem, who cited interest in running for 2010 but decided against it.

MN-Gov: Minnesota's SoS (a Dem, Mark Ritchie) has laid out the timeline for the recount process. The race will be canvassed starting Nov. 23, and presuming a recount is necessary (which it will be unless something weird happens with the canvass, as Dem Mark Dayton leads Tom Emmer by less than one-half of a percent, triggering the automatic recount provision), the recounting will begin on Nov. 29.

MD-01: Nothing like teabagger hypocrisy at work: freshly elected with a mandate to destroy the federal government, Andy Harris's first act in Washington was to demand all the free goodies from the federal government that he's entitled to, so long as other people are paying for them. At freshman orientation, Harris was observed expressing dismay that his gold-plated health care plan takes a month to kick in.

NY-01, NY-25: Here are a couple more updates from overtime. In the 1st, Randy Altschuler's lead over Tim Bishop is currently 383, but there are more than 11,000 absentees to be counted starting today, and since they're all from one county (Suffolk), your guess is as good as mine how they break. In NY-25, Ann Marie Buerkle gained a tiny bit of ground as two GOP-leaning counties reported their absentees; she's now up 729. Dan Maffei's base, Dem-leaning Onondaga County, is about to start counting its 6,000 absentees. He should make up some ground, but he'll need to average 56% among the remaining absentee ballots, while he's only got 54% in Onondaga so far, though.

DSCC: Dianne Feinstein told the press that Michael Bennet is, despite his previous demurrals, going to be the next DSCC chair. Does Michael Bennet know this? He's still saying no. The rest of the Dem leadership in the Senate (and the GOP, too) was elected without a hitch today, but the DSCC job still stands vacant.

CA-AG: Things keep looking up for Kamala Harris in California, after a torrent of new votes yesterday from Alameda County (where the Dem stronghold of Oakland is). That batch broke 18,764 for Harris, and only 5,099 for Steve Cooley, which may be a decisive moment in the count.

Chicago mayor: Rahm Emanuel is certainly looking like the early favorite in the Chicago mayoral race, courtesy of an Anzalone-Liszt poll commissioned by the Teamsters local (who haven't endorsed yet). Emanuel is at 36, with Danny Davis at 14, Carol Mosely Braun at 13, Gery Chico at 10, James Meeks at 7, and Miguel del Valle at 4. Now you may be noticing what I'm noticing, that there's significant splitting of the African-American vote here, and if you added Davis, Braun, and Meeks up into one super-candidate, they'd be in a dead heat with Emanuel. Well, don't forget that this election uses a runoff, so chances are good we'll see a head-to-head between Emanuel and one of the African-American challengers, and the poll finds Emanuel winning both those contests convincingly too: 54-33 versus Davis and 55-32 against Braun.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 11/16
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Gerlach
He's about to finally be shored up (a bit). I'd be surprised if he left after he survived the heavy lifting of 06 and 08.

and he's in the majority again.
1.  Still, his gubernatorial bid made clear he's not a fan of being in the House.  

2.  I disagree that Tom Ridge ever had a shot at the Senate this past cycle -- what, he'd have challenged Pat Toomey in a primary?

3.  Meakem, IIRC, could self-fund, and given the costs of PA (in a presidential year), they'd want that.

4.  I would like to believe the pictures of Sen. Casey on his campaign site didn't still have a unibrow.  


[ Parent ]
Casey is fool's gold, the GOP won't beat him or even come close, so I hope Gerlach or Dent...
...goes for it, leaving the open seat for us to go after.

Yes there will be redistricting and maybe their seats are firmed up and don't look like they do today, but PA is just a little bit bluer than a decade ago, so there will be plenty of opportunities for us to take some seats back.  And a guy in a currently-blue seat leaving it open only helps us, one way or another.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
my suspicion remains
They make PA-13 safe-D and use that to turn 6, 7 and 8 into safer R.  Dunno how 10/11/15 shake out.

[ Parent ]
Yeah I think so too
I was playing with the redistrict app and that's pretty much all that can be done.  PA-10 and PA-11 will just be extended westward.  Ditto PA-7 and PA-6.  PA-8 and PA-15 are tougher because they are swingy and surrounded by swingy and lean D real estate.

PA-3 will likely be made safer too.

PA-4 and PA-12 - my guess is that the GOP forces a primary between Altmire and Critz - because Western PA is where the population loss has been.


[ Parent ]
Well
PA 8 is not too bad. Its almost purely Bucks county right now.

what you can do is give Fitzpatrick a lot of the 51-55% McCain territory in Northeast Philly from Schwartz (13th district), and have Schwartz take the 65-75% Obama Bethlehem and Bristrol territory.

Those changes swing the district about 4 pts in the R direction.

15th, well, depends on what you do with the 17th and Tim Holden.

To preserve a GOP 12-6 config, you need to do something REALLY creative (ugly) with PA-17. I've been able to take it from Harrisburgh to Reading to Scraton, eating Dem territory along the way.

Part of me things, though, you leave Barletta and Scranton as is, and take Holden's 17th from Harrisburgh to Reading to Allentown instead.


[ Parent ]
corrections
1. You mean Bensalem, not Bethlehem.  
2. You'd actually take out the NE Phila and Upper Dublin parts from PA-8 and shift the district north into PA-15 (or into R-leaning parts of PA-13) to make it safer for Fitzpatrick.
3. Merge Altmire and Critz.

[ Parent ]
Philadelphia
The portions of Philadelphia county in the very northeast of the county (I guess these are technically suburbs?) are more Republican than Bucks county as a whole.

See other post.


[ Parent ]
No, it's part of the city.
And they're Dem precincts. Murphy won in 2006 by carrying the non-Bucks parts of the 8th; he lost Bucks itself.

[ Parent ]
What Is That Random Slice of Montgomery?
They really liked Murphy, at least in 2006. Why would Republicans draw such a thing into a district they were hoping to protect? (It's an odd looking protrusion and I'm not super familiar with that part of metro Philly.)

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
Think back to 2001
This was Jim Greenwood's district.  He was totally safe.  Republicans thought that to the extent non-Bucks precincts had to be added to the 8th, it could absorb Dem voters to make the 13th more swingy without putting Greenwood at any danger.  

(The Montgomery slices are Upper Dublin/Upper Moreland.)


[ Parent ]
Hmm
You might be right, but they are flagging as 51-53% McCain in the tool.

I'm talking about the absolute uppermost corner. You start hitting 70-80% Obama once you move into the artist area.


[ Parent ]
It's where I grew up. I know it well.
I have no idea what you mean by "the artist area".

[ Parent ]
Does He Mean New Hope?
That's in Bucks County. It's known as something of a gay mecca. Lots of antiques shops, not sure about artists but it would not surprise me to see artists set up shop there.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
I think its called Northern Liberties
I've been there a few times. Most of the people I met there seem to be about my age (mid 20s), broke, artisty types (ie Obama voters).

It's predominantly white, though, so I'm pretty sure its in Allyson Schwartz's 13th rather than the VRA 1st and 2nd.


[ Parent ]
No, it's in PA-01
Northern Liberties is not near Northeast Philadelphia.  It's adjacent to Center City.

[ Parent ]
the 8th isn't too bad, the 15th is
Expansion of the 3 Dem districts can be used to take some territory from the 8th.

The 15th is where I run into trouble every time I try to draw this map. The 2 countries that make up the 15th are 56% obama. Plus, Charlie Dent lives in Allentown I believe.

There's no Democrat nearby to dump/exchange the Dem voters.


[ Parent ]
The 13th
It's already safe D.

It easily becomes ~65% Obama rather than 60% Obama with redistricting, though.


[ Parent ]
It's only safe ...
... because of how strong Schwartz is as a fundraiser.  She won 56-44 this year by spending $1M+ on tv.

[ Parent ]
Well true
But either way, all the Democrats have to go somewhere.

This is what I mean by Fitzpatrick.

http://img146.imageshack.us/i/...

Bucks county as a whole is about 80k people short and went 54% obama. I would draw Fitzpatrick down into Philadelphia County. There are the R leaning parts of the 13th you were talking about, although they're not McCain by much.

There's about 100-150k people you can carefully pull out of Schwartz 13th and give to Fitzpatrick, which lets you swing Bensalem/Bristol the other way the other way.

As I've drawn it, you get Fitzpatrick's district down to 52% Obama. More importantly, though, if you take Schwartz's PA-13 territory, PA-13 can loop around Philly and take all that Lower Merion 70-80% Obama territory away from Gerlach.


[ Parent ]
Why "fool's gold?"
Republicans clearly have a built-in, structural disadvantage in Pennsylvania in a presidential year, but I don't think Casey is a particularly distinguished candidate.

IIRC, in 2006 Casey essentially hunkered down and rarely campaigned because the outcome was never really in question. His name got him through the primary and the Dem wave plus Santorum as an opponent got him through the general. He never had to lift a finger, much less run a spirited campaign.

Either Gerlach or Dent (or Gov. Ridge) would be infinitely better opponents than Santorum. Both are bona fide moderate Republicans who are actually to Casey's left on abortion -- exactly the kinds of Republicans that can appeal to suburban Philadelphia swing voters. Casey comes off as impossibly boring.

It would be an uphill battle, but the right Republican could absolutely make the race competitive. I think the environment (read: economy) would probably have to remain pretty bleak to knock Casey off, but I think it would be a mistake for Dems to assume he's safe.  

20, GOP, NH-02


[ Parent ]
You're illustrating my point, you're getting fooled by the pale yellow stuff!......
Yes, fool's gold.

Look at what just happened:  Toomey barely survived, 51-49, in the strongest possible Republican year.

Pennsylvania very clearly is a center-left state, Casey is an uncontroversial Democratic incumbent, and Obama surge turnout will show up in 2012.

Whatever people like Gerlach and Dent might gain in eastern PA, and make no mistake they easily could have zero appeal there, they lose in the west where Casey plays better culturally.  Pro-choice surbanities aren't bothered by Casey, he doesn't say or do anything on abortion, and it's not clear he's "conservative" on anything else beyond, maybe, gay marriage--which sadly, but fortunately for Casey, is still solidly opposed by most swing voters.

I'm licking my chops that the GOP makes a play for Casey, it will be money poorly spent that won't be spent on better opportunities.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
The
Casey name is still golden in the west as well. Now Casey should be prepared for a tough race because anything could happen. Who would of thought Feingold would of lost this year? But he's still the favorite at this point. Luckily Casey didn't act like an ass when it came to the abortion issue on the health care debate.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
And the reason
that the race was so close in the first place was that Toomey was SO conservative. He wasn't so outspoken about his social conservative positions, but it's arguable that he is to Santorum's RIGHT on many matters. In terms of message discipline/charisma he is an excellent candidate; ideologically, he's among the worst Republicans could have fielded in Pennsylvania. Yet he still won. Hypothetically, I think Gerlach would have waltzed into the Senate this year by a 10 point margin.

And I would dispute your assertion that Gerlach/Dent might have zero appeal in Eastern PA. They keep holding onto marginal congressional seats there, don't they? So they must have some kind of appeal.

My point is that if Pat Toomey can beat a very strong candidate in Joe Sestak in a strongly Republican year, I think someone like Gerlach could beat a "meh" candidate like Casey in a more neutral or slightly GOP-leaning year. I'm not saying it would be an easy race -- far from it -- but if I were Senator Cornyn I'd be beating down Gerlach's door over the next few months.

20, GOP, NH-02


[ Parent ]
But this wasn't really an ideological election
I live near Philly.

Toomey's campaign was the following words:

Sestak, Obama, Pelosi, liberal.

Sestak's campaign was some garbage about Toomey and the corporate income tax, and Bush, and a whole host of other irrelevant stuff.

I'm guessing Toomey will be re-elected once or twice and then tossed out horribly in a wave year. But Casey? Unbeatable.


[ Parent ]
My hunch is Casey could perform a whole 10+ points better than Obama
Casey should barnstorm his way through the SW (if he wins Westmoreland, it's a 15%+ blow-out) and win the Philly suburbs pretty comfortably too (likewise, watch Chester County for signs of a huge win). So, as long as Obama wins or even keeps things close...

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Casey
shouldn't take anything for granted. Remember he'll do better in the West than Obama will do, but the GOPer is likely to do well in the Philly suburbs if their main focus is on the economy rather than social issues which doomed Santorum. In fact he should be ready to vaporize whoever the GOP nominee could be.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
You make it seem like Toomey was a flawed candidate
which is far from the truth. He certainly has a more radical background compared to a lot of prospective statewide GOP candidates, but the fundamentals of his campaign were very solid: his fundraising was stellar, he avoided any serious gaffes, and he played down his historical ultraconservative associations. Considering the competency of his campaign and his Pennsylvania's lurch to the right, I find it remarkable that he won by such a small margin.

With regards to the 2012 election, I find it difficult to see Casey picking up top notch opposition, though it's still very early in the cycle. Gerlach and Dent will most likely be knocked out by the far right during the primary, and even if either made it through, neither strikes me as remarkable enough to unseat Casey. When you take into account increased turnout from Philadelphia, it's very difficult to imagine an avenue for victory for the GOP.

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)


[ Parent ]
Toomey
Was he the strongest possible Republican candidate? No. He was a little to the right for the state, while Gerlach and Dent are perfect Republicans for PA.  

[ Parent ]
Keep
an eye on Gerlach. His short lived gubernatorial campaign showed he doesn't like staying in the house and being forced to run hard fought reelection campaigns every 2 years. Also Gerlach can benefit from any mood shifts in the Philly suburbs. Especially if they feel social issues are more important 2 years from now and Toomey starts acting right winger on social issues, Philly suburb voters might feel uncomfortable with two social conservatives representing them in the senate.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
I think he will run
He is probably tied of having a tough re-election every two years, which is why he ran for Gov. However, there is also speculation that its not the House he doesn't like, its Washington, which is why he ran for Gov instead of Sen.  

[ Parent ]
No, you're making the mistake of assuming elections are primarily ideological......
They are not.

Whether a candidate is "moderate" or "conservative" or "liberal" draws only shrugs from swing voters in most elections.  A candidate's ideological posture is one factor in the candidate's personal appeal, and that's as far as it goes.

Ask Dick Thornburg how much it helped him to be a "moderate," and a popular ex-Governor to boot, in the 1991 special election for U.S. Senate against no-name liberal Harris Wofford who ran ads advocating Canadian-style single-payer health care.

Most PA swing voters didn't see Toomey as a far-right conservative.  He had successfully redefined himself sans his Club for Growth right-wing baggage before Democrats got on the air against him.  That's why Toomey pulled it out.  But he barely pulled it out because too many PA voters these days just prefer a Democrat.

It's not going to help Dent or Gerlach that they're pro-choice when swing voters so rarely vote on abortion.  It's not going to help that they might be to Casey's cultural left when that presumption is dubious in the first place, and Casey as a Democrat who downplays cultural issues himself is going to get the benefit of doubt from voters who care about that.  And Dent or Gerlach is not going to gin up the conservative base at all...if one of them even survives what is a certain primary; the center-right/conservative coalition will be fractured.

I honestly expect that if Casey's opponent is Dent or Gerlach, Casey wins by double-digits, maybe even by 20 points.  People just like Casey, even liberals.  Dent and Gerlach are tweeners, and frankly the GOP would actually do better with someone more conservative who at least has the center-right/conservative coalition locked down.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
No surprise at Harris
He's just another politician against "big government" who will not miss any benefits or opportunities by the government.  

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

But...but
if Harris doesn't get his government health care every member of congress is entitled too, how can he show to the world the horrors of government run health care?!

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Of course Harris is an asshole
But it's not true that Congresspeople have a special "gold-plated health care plan." They just have the standard Federal Employee health plan--the same plan as, say, a forest ranger or a Customs agent.

[ Parent ]
Think he
Just got himself a tough primary in 2012. Very hypocritical, and conservatives are not happy over it.  

[ Parent ]
It
doesn't matter. The district will be completely dismantled after redistricting. He's a one termer regardless, unless you think he can win in a D+5.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
RNC Watch/MO-Sen: Ann Wagner Declaring RNC Chair candidacy "within days"
http://www.politico.com/news/s...
Also a sign that Talent may be telling people he's in.  

Is Talent really the best the GOP can do here?
It worked for Jeanne Shaheen in 2008, but how often are Senate rematches successful? He has to convince some folks who voted for McCaskill last time to reconsider, and also deal with the increased urban turnout that Obama will bring.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Probably not
I hope he doesn't run, but I think he will. Unfortunately, if he doesn't run, the alternatives aren't that great either. Sarah Steelman and Sam Graves?  

[ Parent ]
MO politics is notorious for retreads
Top pols routinely lose major statewide races but then go onto win subsequent bids. Both Talent and McCaskill are examples of this - Talent losing a gubernatorial bid in 2000, McCaskill losing a gubernatorial bid in 2004 - as are numerous other figures in MO political history: John Danforth, John Ashcroft, Kit Bond, Jay Nixon. Roy Blunt and Mel Carnahan both lost high-profile gubernatorial bids in primaries.

Besides, people in MO are pretty neutral towards Talent - he's about as close to "generic Republican" as you can get. And while the bluing of the St. Louis area keeps the state competitive, it has been slowly trending Republican overall, so he could do better if Obama falls short in the state by a few points.

Personally, as a sometimes-MO resident, I wish Talent had run this year and Blunt in 2012. Mainly because if a Republican was going to win, I'd prefer Talent over Blunt, and Blunt would probably be a weaker candidate versus McCaskill in 2012.  


[ Parent ]
Two
things that are comforting to your side and Talent:

1) Rural voters have probably turned on Democrats permanently. Robin Carnahan tried using the McCaskill/Obama strategy of campaigning in the rural areas in order to pull out a victory. That didn't work for her.
2) Even with everything going right for Obama, and turnout in St. Louis/Kansas City super high, Obama still lost Missouri.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


[ Parent ]
Obama actually didn't do that well in the KC area
Which was the main reason the campaign believed he lost the state - they didn't meet their targets.

It's worth noting though that in '08, McCain's margin over Obama - 4000 votes - was significantly less than Nader's 18,000 votes.  


[ Parent ]
No she really didn't
let's just say that there was about 0 field ops outside of the biggest cities (KC area, St. Joe, Springfield, Columbia, St. Louis). Sure, she campaigned in places like Rolla, Cape Girardeau, and Brookfield, but they weren't calling people there, knocking on doors, or really competing for that vote. And ultimately field level operations are a lot more important.

It'd be interesting to see a comparison of how Claire and Robin did.. I'd imagine the meat of the difference is gonna be in the suburbs and due to the turnout drop in KC and St. Louis.

Really, the campaign spent too much time on the undecideds/unknowns and not enough time trying to get the vote out.


[ Parent ]
It's worth noting that Carnahan performed poorly in Jackson County
She won the county only 53% to 42%, receiving about 100,000 less votes than Obama did. Rural voters may have disconnected from Democrats, but it was the enthusiasm gap that made Carnahan's loss so huge.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
I didn't post this here but
A break down of the swing

Summary: the best areas for Dems in 2006/2008 had the worst turnout, and some of them had the biggest swings towards Blunt due to that bad turnout.

Not to mention that KC and STL had turnout below 40%.

Not to mention that none of the bigger name Dems in the state wanted to do much for the Carnahan campaign (Nixon did one event, McCaskill barely did anything)


[ Parent ]
Why?
Did other Democrats see her as a bad bet to invest their political capital due to the environment and the polling they were seeing?

Democrat: TN-8

[ Parent ]
Claire never really did much for her
at least in public. Nixon managed to make it through a campaign season without really doing anything to help his side out (Dems lost 17 seats in the House and 3 in the Senate, which means that Republicans need 4 Dems to defect on any veto override)

Nixon has an outside shot of losing, Claire is in big danger, and the Republicans will have big majorities for a long time under current law. Fun, isn't it?


[ Parent ]
Fun? Tell me about it!
I live in Tennessee, where we lost 14 in the House and 1 in the Senate, plus 3 Congressman. Oh, and our outgoing Democratic Governor, Bredesen, describes a Republican in the State House calling pregnant Hispanic women "rats" a few days ago as simply a "poor choice of words"!!

Take solace in the fact you have a Democratic US Senator! Who at least has a shot at re-election.

Democrat: TN-8


[ Parent ]
Take solace in your last two months represented by a Democrat! (John Tanner, right?)


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Correct! And I am!
Its been a tough cycle to be a Democrat in West Tennessee, we lost 3 State House seats in NWTN we had held since reconstruction along with the Congressional seat. My true solace for the cycle is keeping my Democratic State Senator, Lowe Finney (D-Jackson)- he is a young and capable Democrat. Perhaps if the new 8th is drawn decently he will have a chance to reclaim the seat for the Democratic Party at some opportune election cycle in the future.


Democrat: TN-8

[ Parent ]
NV-Sen: Amazing Angle Ad...
As in, amazingly bizarre...

The Social Security spot at right was produced by some folks in the Sharron Angle for U.S. Senate campaign but never aired, as some of the "DC handlers" managed to kill it. I can't imagine why.

It's a Windows Media file, so you'll have to click here to see it.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


Angle 2012
I really hope Angle primaries John Ensign.  I bet she could even beat him.

[ Parent ]
I wish that were true, but methinks Nevada GOPers are permanently done with Angle......
They will never admit Angle's qualities that hard-right teabaggers all share were the problem, they'll blame it personally on her looking back, but that's enough for teabaggers to say "no" to Angle herself the next time around.

There are plenty of gadflies and cranks available to fill Angle's role in 2012, but that doesn't mean an establishment candidate won't win the GOP primary.  If Heller runs, he can win the primary, perhaps easily since Washoe and the rurals already have been voting for him without reservation--including in 2010.

I'm starting to think Heller might be very tough to beat.  We'll really need Obama surge turnout maxed out to beat him.  It's very doable, but Heller is no Angle, he'll come closer to 50% even in defeat than she did.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I was going to agree with you...
I definitely would have the day after the election...

But here's the NV GOP establishment's problem (and NV Democrats' opportunity!):

They can't get rid of her!

Angle is essentially "The Energizer Bunny of Nevada Teabaggers". She runs, she loses, then she runs again.

After serving her time in The Nevada Legislature, Angle decided she wanted to move onto bigger and better things, so she ran for Congress...

And after losing to Dean Heller in the NV-02 GOP primary in 2006, she moved onto another campaign...

And after losing to then State Senate GOP Leader Bill Raggio in the GOP Primary in 2008, she moved onto the biggest campaign of her life (so far)...

And after her surprise GOP Primary win followed by her surprise loss to Harry Reid this year, she's already making noise about running for something else yet again...

And contrary to what you think, the Nevada GOP establishment understands that Harry Reid's slogan was on the mark and she's just too extreme. However, their dilemma is that they're losing control of their own party. All their money was on Sue Lowden. They let her step into the race when they realized no one else would touch Harry this time. But when Sal Russo stormed in from California with his "Tea Party, Inc." bandwagon for Angle, they couldn't stop him. (And of course, Lowden's own train wreck of a campaign didn't help, either.)

Dean Heller has been eyeing The Senate for some time, and he certainly has no love or loyalty for John Ensign, but John Boehner is now offering him the kind of juice in The House that may be too good to give up. And if Heller passes on the Senate race, that leaves Angle with quite the opening there...

But even if he does run, I'm starting to wonder if he can still be knocked off in the primary. Remember that at this point last year, Sue Lowden looked unstoppable. While I do think Heller would have the upper hand in the primary, he's probably destroyed whatever relationship he could have had with the teabaggers by making his peace with Harry. They want "purity", and Heller can't give them that.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Who is Sal Russo?
Is he the guy who runs the TPX?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Yep.
I wrote about him on my blog back in July. He's a long time California GOP operative who was part of the cabal that orchestrated the 2003 Recall of then Governor Gray Davis. Funny enough, this high falutin' California GOP consultant helped in the unraveling of the Nevada GOP establishment as his organization fueled Sharron Angle's rise in the primary.


Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
eh..
She's 1 for 3 in Primaries, and 0 for 1 in generals.  The only one of the four she won was a splintered Primary where the frontrunner sort of imploded and Angle got 40% of the vote.  That means even 60% of a pretty darn Conservative Primary electorate voted against her, and that was before she blew the chance to knock off Reid.  You think she's going to get all those 40% again after flaming out?  I think she loses at least a quarter of them to ANY GOPer, so unless it's a 5 way primary, I doubt she can do it.  It's not impossible, but she needs another storm like this year.

[ Parent ]
Actually, yes.
You think she's going to get all those 40% again after flaming out?

To Angle's base, she didn't "flame out". I'm STILL hearing a bunch of wackadoodle conspiracy theories of SEIU "stealing" the election for Reid. Yes, many of them don't even believe she lost, let alone blame her for it!

Even the more rational Angle fans (if that's possible) blame the GOP establishment (such as Bill Raggio, Dean Heller, Sig Rogich, Dawn Gibbons, etc.) for either lukewarm "support" (as in Heller's case) or outright opposition (in Raggio's, Gibbons', and Rogich's case) to Angle.

I think she loses at least a quarter of them to ANY GOPer

Ensign? He's even more damaged than Angle.

Heller? Again, he's seen by the teabaggers as "LIB'RUL!!!"

Baby Tark? Why settle for "Teabagger-lite" when one can get "the real deal"?

While I wouldn't yet consider her any sort of favorite, I think these last 3 cycles have shown Sharron Angle has real staying power with GOP primary voters. Again, remember that at this point last year, no one was expecting Angle to even win the NV-Sen GOP primary, let alone get 40% of the vote AND win Clark County (where Lowden and Baby Tark were thought to be strongest)!

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Yup, cclub79 is right. This was Angle's big chance, only because no one knew who she was......
Frankly the Nevada GOP primary electorate had no idea who Angle was other than she was sold as the right-wing populist teabagger, so they went to her.  And they did that because Lowden looked like such a disaster, and Tarkanian for whatever reason just made people go "meh."  Every campaign junkie in America, including every SSPer, knew what a disaster Angle was, but most voters, even in a low-turnout primary, are low-information voters.

Now that they know what they got in Angle, GOP rank-and-file primary voters won't give her another statewide nomination for office, certainly not for Senate.  If she can't beat an incumbent with 40% job approvals and favorables, then she certainly can't beat any other Democrat, and they know that now.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Didn't most people think that about Christine O'Donnell?
I wouldn't bet on Republicans in any state not voting for the raving lunatic in any primary.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Not the same, O'Donnell never had the opportunity Angle had......
O'Donnell's previous run was against popular and super-safe Joe Biden in '08.  She was a sacrificial lamb.

Angle was the GOP's big play to take down an unpopular Reid.

It's a mistake to assume voters never learn anything.  There might be more Angles and O'Donnells winning primaries for competitive races in 2012, but not Angle herself in NV or O'Donnell herself in DE.  There might even be a Palin or Gingrich winning the 2012 GOP Presidential nomination, but nominating an obvious electoral failure is not the same as nominating a proven  electoral failure.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
It's also a mistake to assume
that the extremist base voters in Republican primaries ever "learn" anything. They vote their hearts, and except for my abhorrence of the choices they make, I respect them for that, even though it sometimes hurts their party's chances in general elections.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
this applies to Democrats as well
Oh the DFL endorsement process, what a joke.

[ Parent ]
What you're missing is that they do learn to find scapegoats, and that's what Angle and O'Donnell are......
They're going to rationalize their defeat beyond just crying "fraud," and that rationalization is to make scapegoats out of Angle and O'Donnell.

I'm not saying they're not crazy, or that they won't nominate other organisms equally mentally deformed as Angle or O'Donnell.  Indeed I bet they will.

I'm saying that the particular organisms of Sharron Angle and Christine O'Donnell will be jettisoned going forward.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
But you're thinking "electability"...
And many GOP primary voters here stopped caring about that. For the most part, they're now demanding "purity". The one exception may be Brian Sandoval in the Governor's race, but he was helped by a horribly unpopular incumbent and the lack of a strong hard-right candidate to take him on. And even Sandoval had to flip-flop and tack much further to the right than ever before just to win that primary.

All the GOP power players knew Angle would be electoral poison, and they kept making noise about it all through the spring, and Sue Lowden's campaign spent millions toward the end on TV ads attacking Angle, but none of them could stop Sal Russo's Tea Party Express from running over all of them and propelling Angle to the nomination.

Again, the GOP establishment HATES Angle and they'd love nothing more than to see her go away and never run for anything else ever again... But they're quickly losing control of their party. Bill Raggio was ousted as State Senate Minority Leader. Many long time Clark and Washoe GOP honchos have been ousted from party leadership.

The teabaggers are a strengthening force in the Nevada GOP. And as long as they love them some Sharron Angle, she'll still keep running and running and running...

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
It's almost
as if the Teabaggers are doing everything they can to shove the state into the Democratic column, isn't it?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
probably
Take the attitude that most of the Dems on this board have toward Dan Seals, multiply that by about 1000, and that's what I suspect most Nevada Republicans think of Angle.  

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
GOP establishment, yes...
But again, the teabaggers working to wrestle control of the Nevada GOP from the establishment think differently. They see the GOP establishment as part of the problem, not Angle.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
I understand her "staying power"
But that was before she lost a general that she was supposed to win...I can't see how anything more than a couple of percent of the 60% that didn't go for her in the GOP Primary of '10 are going to all of sudden want to support her after she lost the general.  I also think that the establishment didn't have enough time to think she was a real threat.  If it's Angle vs. Heller vs. Ensign, then she might be able to win with 40% again.  But straight up against anyone (even Ensign), I don't think she can to 50%+1.  Except when she was in the Assembly, she never has.

[ Parent ]
See Pan's comment above.
Who ever expected Delaware Republicans to pass up such a sure thing in Mike Castle for a total raving lunatic in Christine O'Donnell?

Who ever expected Alaska Republicans to reject a true bacon deliverer with a golden last name in Lisa Murkowski for gadfly carpetbagger Joe Miller?

And who ever expected Kentucky Republicans to reject Mitch McConnell's hand picked candidate, Secretary of State Trey Grayson, in favor of Nutjob Extraordinaire Rand Paul?

Throughout the country this year, "Tea Party, Inc." flexed its strengthened political muscle within the Republican Party. And while the Nevada GOP had been able to resist this before and keep the peace among the religious right, business conservatives, libertarian conservatives, and moderates, that coalition started to fracture in 2006 as Governor Kenny Guinn was termed out and couldn't stop Jim Gibbons from winning the GOP primary to succeed him, then became increasingly tense as the Nevada GOP became electoral laughingstock in 2008. The tense peace finally turned into all out internal GOP warfare this year, and Sharron Angle was probably the biggest beneficiary of it (other than perhaps Harry Reid).

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
It's a B-Movie
Complete with bad acting. Angle needs to run for Senate in 2012, we need the entertainment.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
WTF did I just watch?
I thought that was an ad parody, but it's real?!

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
What
the hell did I just watch? Anyway Sharron Angle should of flown in a superman costume when the seniors were asking what they should do.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Some new Cali updates
- Kern County counted about 4,500 ballots out of 10,000 it had left and Cooley netted less than 2:1 despite winning county 66%-27%.

- Sacramento County, which has gone for Cooley, counted about 14,000 of its remaining 21,621 ballots - and Harris netted votes (less than 1,000, but still)!

- San Francisco's latest batch: Harris gains 2687 votes, Cooley gains 868 votes. (Not much left in San Fran, however.)

Kern & Sacramento were added in SoS count today, San Francisco's has not.

Twitter.com/Taniel


Thanks Taniel...
The Sacramento development is especially welcome, given that Cooley is up about 2% overall in votes from that county.

SoS has Kamala up about 18k at the moment, statewide.


[ Parent ]
Hey, I noticed you posted on Twitter
about the Johnson/Martins race. You have any insight on that one?

I'm finding all the spin confusing. Johnson (D) has made up a lot of ground, down now by just 150 or so, but Republicans are claiming that the remaining ballots are from Rep-leaning areas.

I find that a little hard to believe, given that folks were saying at the start of late counting that Dem registrants made up 65% of the ballots. Even if some of the more Dem-friendly areas have already counted, it would still seem that Dems should have a registration advantage in those that remain.


[ Parent ]
MN-GOV
The recanvassing is actually going on right now. The State Canvassing Board will meet on November 23 to certify the results and presumably order a recount.

21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)

Any idea how long this ridiculous recount will last?
10,000 vote margin, you've got to be kidding me.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male

[ Parent ]
if the goal is just to drag things out
to let Pawlenty exceed his term in office, I have to believe Minnesotans will be repelled by the abuse of power. There is no way Emmer can overcome that kind of margin in a recount.

[ Parent ]
people are already not happy
With the state GOP's rhetoric on the situation and with us going 6 months without a Senator in 09, people are absolutely not willing to go through that again over what is an unassailable marin.  Luckily for the GOP, people have short memories and wouldn't remember this come EDay 2012 unless they try to do something like tackle the budget.  And if they do that, the GOP would probably be close to dead at the local level for quite some time as they'll instantly be the party known for cutting education spending.

[ Parent ]
elecction-day registration in Iowa
So Iowa passed same-day registration on a party-line vote in 2007. The system worked great in 2008 and this year. Now the incoming GOP Sec of State Matt Schultz wants to change the system so that anyone registering to vote on election day would have to cast a provisional ballot. I don't have statistics on what proportion of provisional ballots are ultimately counted.

Schultz's top priority will be photo ID requirements for all voters. The Iowa House will pass it--not sure about the Senate.


IL 8 final count: Bean loses by 292
Appears likely to concede tomorrow.

http://www.suntimes.com/news/m...

The most pro-Republican on economic issues Democratic member of congress outside the south goes down.  


Walsh
is a one termer. Bean conceding before a recount probably means she is gearing up for another run in two years. Good for her, should be an easy takeover.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
God no!
I'm sure wall street or the American Enterprise Institute will have a place for her.  No Democrat fought harder for the interests of the top 2%.  Let them merge Walsh with another Republican and not let the Democratic caucus be plagued with her again.

[ Parent ]
As distasteful as it may feel
any chance of retaking the majority in the House, IMO, depends on less than progressive candidates such as Bean.

OTOH, if the district itself is made more progressive, then by all means, find someone better!


[ Parent ]
I'm amazed how many liberals fail to accept the realities of conservative districts like Bean's......
It's possible in redistricting that IL-08 is made more Democratic, but up to know it's been a longtime Republican center-right district.  This business of complaining about Bean's friendliness to "corporate" interests is absurd in a district like this one.  This district's current localities were a longtime Republican bastion, held by the GOP for many years.  Kerry and Gore both were crushed here by double-digits, and Obama carried the district only because of misleading home-state inflation much the same as Dubya carried Solomon Ortiz's majority-Hispanic district in 2004.

I just  

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Clicked "post" by mistake too soon......
I meant to finish my last sentence by saying I just don't understand how some people fail to recognize obvious electoral realities.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I just don't understand how some people fail to realize
that a political party is supposed to stand for something.  

And IL 8 is +1 R.  There are Republicans representing districts with a higher Democratic lean who vote with their party right down the line.


[ Parent ]
Thing is though
Bean represents a lot of richie-rich places like Barrington and Hoffman Estates. It's pretty much your quintessental traditionally-Republican economically-conservative socially-liberal district.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Prime territory for Tea partiers
IFF they stay away from social issues.

One of the lessons of '10, is that PVI is a misleading measure in such districts.


[ Parent ]
As I've said elsewhere that PVI is misleading and worthless......
Illinois PVIs have Dem-inflation from an Obama favorite-son vote.  What matters is that Kerry and Gore both lost to Dubya in IL-08 by double-digits.  That tells you what the district is like, not the PVI or Obama's performance there.

It's a conservative district, period.  Not ultra-conservative, not culturally conservative, but plenty conservative enough.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Also the fact that before Bean
The district was represented by Phil "Ran to the right of Ronald Reagan" Crane.

27, Democratic, IL-01

[ Parent ]
Before Crane
it was represented by Donal Rumsfeld.

[ Parent ]
Agree 100%
I can't understand why both political party can't run candidates based on following very simple algorithm:

Democrats: run "the most progressive candidate who can win the district" (but if the only candidate who can win the district is to the right of Bobby Bright - run him!)

Republicans: run "the most conservative candidate who can win the district" (but if the only candidate who can win the district is to the left of Jacob Javits - run him!)

It's that simple))))

Bean's district was far from being "progressive", so she fit the district well. If it will not be changed substantially by redistricting - Democrats will need similar candidate to regain it)))


[ Parent ]
If a candidate has to be to the right of Bobby Bright to win a district
Why not support the more moderate Republican in the Republican primary (if any) and then run a Democrat who will lose but at least present an alternate viewpoint? It seems like you're making the case to support Bob Inglis in SC-4 in the Republican Primary and then, once he lost, the losing Democratic candidate. But treating someone as conservative and as close to the mainstream of the Republican Party as Inglis as a Democrat doesn't make sense, because then parties are nothing but meaningless labels. And I think that's essentially what's to the right of Bobby Bright.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Parties ARE meaningless labels for me
Or, to be less crude - a broad term serving only as an umbrella for people to identify themselves in some way reflecting their upbringing, tradition (sometimes - family tradition - almost all Longs in Louisiana were Democrats until recently, though among them were liberal Longs (Gillis) as well as very conservative (Speedy) for example)and so on. No "ideological litmus test" - as i wrote many times that makes sense only in multiparty (European style) system with 4, 5 even 10 clearly (and ideologically!) defined parties...

Next: ou are unlikely to get a "more moderate" Republican in district that requires someone to the right of Bobby Bright to win. And i am absolutely uninterested in "presenting an alternative viewpoint" simply for educational and presentation purposes. The ONLY thing i am interested - is WINNING. So, i repeat, if to win you need someone to the right of Bobby Bright - run HIM!!


[ Parent ]
Bright's district was +16 R
Bean's is +1.  Tim Walz is in a +1 R district, and does not vote like Bean.  Peter Viscosky is in a +2 R district and does not vote like Bean.  

[ Parent ]
Huh?
Pete Visclosky's district is D+8.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
He's
also a very corrupt dick who voted against financial regulation. He can't lose the way his district is drawn.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Very corrupt?
He's actually pretty clean by Region standards.  Oh, wait, that's not saying very much .....  :)

[ Parent ]
You're right
But there's also McNerney, who's in a R +1 district, and Holden who's in an R +6 district.  And McNerney's district has just about the same median income as Bean's.


[ Parent ]
I don't recall her voting against the party too often


[ Parent ]
McNerney pretty damn near lost
Though Holden won comfortably.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
McNerney
almost lost to very conservative Republican, ill-suited for Bay Araea parts, that are in his district (more conservative, of course, then SF or Oakland, but still - essentialy moderate). Would Republican be less ideologicaly "pure", and would they run a more moderate candidate - you would talk about McNerney as "ex-congressman" now

[ Parent ]
At some point, it isn't practical
The DSCC spent millions to win AL-05 in 2008. In returm, we got a "Democrat" that voted with Republicans more than Democrats, and switched parties after a year.

There is no law that says you have to vote for 100% of the time with Nancy Pelosi to be a Democrat. However, at a certain point, it is just silly. If you are going to vote against the budget, the Democratic speaker, 9/11 health care benefits, SCHIP, Lilly-Ledbetter, the DREAM act, and any other piece of legislation that Democrats vote for, then why should Democrats support you? Statistically, a Republican from that district likely would have voted more liberally than Parker Griffith.

I am all for matching candidates with districts. Walt Minnick is a great candidate for ID-01. He has a significantly more liberal record that Bobby Bright / Parker Griffith, as he actually voted for minimal bills like SCHIP.  


[ Parent ]
This seems preposterous to me
Statistically, a Republican from that district likely would have voted more liberally than Parker Griffith.

Which Southern Republicans other than Cao voted more liberally than Parker Griffith?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Still mostly disagree
Agree that such candidates must run mostly "on their own" (it's usually even better for them - no association with national party leaders, who, frequently, are very unpopular in their districts). And agree that if you have "more loyal" Democrat who is in danger of losing - it's better to send money  there first and only if something remains after that - to such candidates

But disagree on all other. As i said many times - such candidates must be considered not as a part of "solid, reliable Democratic block" (you can't usually run such candidate in such district and have even scant hope to win), but as a sort of "unexpected bonus", which "works" from time to time - on procedural issues and, sometimes, on other. You must not automatically count on them, when you prepare for the vote, even more: if possible - try to get result without them, if you can. But in some cases, when you can't - ask for their support. In SOME cases - you will get it.  In addition mathematics (i am mathematician by education) teaches us, tha, say, 20% (Bobby Bright level) level of support is still substantially more then 2-3% (at most) which you would get from typical Republican from such district. So, i think, that percentage difference is worthy of "modest investment".. And that's all. Leave such candidates mostly "navigate their own ship"


[ Parent ]
I
don't particularly like her much but she's a step above Walsh. Wouldn't it be hard to mess with this district while also screwing with Dold or others? I mean I would rather leave the weaker Walsh alone and go after the more prominent Republicans. We can beat Walsh in the districts he's in. It may have to be Bean though, I don't know what we have in the district. Whether we want her or not I think she will run again. Just being realistic. It seems to me she could have easily asked for a recount to screw Walsh from knowing for sure for months. But she wants to leave gracefully, I think so she can make a comeback.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I'm hoping Bean does not lead CFPB, and apparently there's speculation she will.
Paleo is usually wrong about the Democrats in the South; but I completely agree with him on this one.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Now that she's gone
the Springfield Dems might decide that they'd really rather pick a different Democrat to replace Walsh.

Being in total control of the lines means that the Dems can remove Walsh and likely will, not that Bean gets another shot.  


[ Parent ]
Really?
Melissa Bean lost to JOE WALSH and you think she should run again? If Dems were smart, they wouldn't let her or Dan Seals near another run for office. But, if ya'll really want to nominate Bean and Seals, please, do.  

[ Parent ]
If it were a neutral year, you'd be correct
But in every wave year, there are fluke losses by good candidates against nobodies (or worse).

[ Parent ]
Carol
Shea Porter was considered a fluke in 2006. She was just lucky 2008 was such a good year for Democrats especially in "Live free or die" New Hampshire. But yes, Walsh is probably going to be vaporized in redistricting.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
While I'm really
disappointed how she got caught off guard, in 2012, with Obama at the top of the district and a slight shift bringing this district further into Cook county, and Walsh's gadfly-ness getting plenty of public attention, and Bean should win easily.  

[ Parent ]
The
bench is very thin here and I can't think of anyone else. Any names? She got caught on cruise but trust me she will win in two years unless its another horrible year. Seals is done.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
So
referencing the acronym for Green isn't gonna get love for this race?

Did the Illinois Greens love access after 2010?


[ Parent ]
Interesting
article on Denver Mayoral election. Roy Rommer's son is a likely candidate and several city council members have also announced. Any Denver SSPers here? Who should we be rooting for?
http://www.thedenverdailynews....

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

Los Angeles just reported more than 1/3 of its remaining ballots.
Harris: 31,669
Cooley: 19,995

That means Harris won 61% of the two-way vote in this newest batch; she'd gotten 57% up to now in LA.

Combine this to Cooley's big underperformance in places like Kern and Sacramento (see above)...

Twitter.com/Taniel


sounding like this one is just about done
of course, anything can happen, but it's been a steady pattern of Harris overperforming among the absentees, and hitting the numbers she would need to win overall.

Quite an impressive sweep for California Democrats.


[ Parent ]
RNC aide quits, knifes Steele
From Politico:

Republican National Committee political director Gentry Collins resigned from his post Tuesday morning with a stinging indictment of Chairman Michael Steele's two-year tenure at the committee.

In a four-page letter to Steele and the RNC's executive committee obtained by POLITICO, Collins lays out inside details, previously only whispered, about the disorganization that plagues the party. He asserts that the RNC's financial shortcomings limited GOP gains this year and reveals that the committee is deeply in debt entering the 2012 presidential election cycle.

"In the previous two non-presidential cycles, the RNC carried over $4.8 million and $3.1 million respectively in cash reserve balances into the presidential cycles," Collins writes, underlining his words for emphasis. "In stark contrast, we enter the 2012 presidential cycle with 100% of the RNC's $15 million in lines of credit tapped out, and unpaid bills likely to add millions to that debt."



Devastating
I see no way Steele even gets to the second round of balloting now. I have to wonder though, how seriously he will be taken, since, almost immediately after this was printed in the media, he said he was considering a run for RNC chair.  

[ Parent ]
Unfortunately, I think Steele will survive
I've got a couple of friends who have worked at the RNC, and Steele's got a solid contingent of votes already in the bag (mainly by means of buying votes with RNC cash in Guam and the Mariana Islands and such). Unless there's a very strong candidate against him (I'm talking someone high-profile like Norm Coleman or something, not some wealthy former Ambassador), he'll scrape by. Unfortunately, too many RNC members are just dumb, and figure "well, we won 64 seats, so he can't have done THAT poorly."

My own committeewoman, Holly Hughes has already endorsed his reelection, even though one of his only announced opponents is our other committeeman, Saul Anuzis. It's ridiculous.


[ Parent ]
Time
for Karl Rove and co. to start digging up dirt on RNC committee members and threatening to tell every news organization and blog from here to Timbuktu. Hell while their at it, dig up some incriminating stuff on Michael Steele and wave it in his face to force him to step down. Sleazy yes? Necessary yes? If anyone could get away with blackmailing on a massive scale its Karl Rove.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Remember though
That he needs a solid majority to win. He can't get a solid majority. Ann Wagner is actually very high profile. She served as Vice-Chair of the RNC for a few terms, along as being chair of the MO GOP for 6 yrs. Maria Cino could also be very strong, but she has not shown too much interest recently. If she ran though, she'd likely have Boehnor's endorsement, which would be a HUGE boost. It is pretty bad that ya'll's committeewoman endorsed Steele over her colleague from MI. There are two other people who are high profile enough to beat Steele: Nick Ayers and Reince Priebus. If Priebus ran, which I really hope he does, Steele would probably retire. They are close, but Priebus is moving closer to a run, and they share many of the same supporters. Ayers had a very good run at the RGA, but I think he is much more likely to run Haley Barbour's campaign. Henry Barbour would be good too, but he has decided against it b/c of his young kids.  

[ Parent ]
I really hope Priebus runs too
He's one of Steele's most important lieutenants, and he's a good state chair. Or if only Ed Gillespie would come back. That man was a genius

[ Parent ]
Here's how I rank the candidates
In order of how much I want them to run and win
1. Nick Ayers. RGA raised a ton of money and did pretty good handling the GOTV operation for the party, and he is very smart. I doubt he runs, because he will likely be running Barbour's presidential campaign.

2. Reince Priebus. Wisconsin was one of the party's best states this cycle. He is young, smart, and managed to get big wins in WI even with the RNC imploding

3. Ann Wagner. She knows the game very well.

4. Maria Cino. Again, like Wagner, she knows the game, and would be one of the most formidable candidates with Boehnor's support.

5. Saul Anuzis. I worry about his ability to raise money, and the MI GOP lost some big races when he was chairman, but he could keep the Tea Party in check.

*Henry Barbour would be tied with Priebus, but he has decided not to run, so he is not on the last.

Has anyone noticed the strange names of RNC Candidates? Reince Priebus, Gentry Collins, Saul Anuzis?  


[ Parent ]
im shocked this discussion is even occuring
I figured Steele wouldve been chased out the day after the election with Coleman waltzing right in to take his place.

This is just the  beauty of politics as it wouldn't be nearly as much fun to watch if  it were based off of logic!


[ Parent ]
Steele is what happens...
when you don't get the difference between "affirmative action" and "tokenism."  Affirmative action is actively seeking a qualified candidate of color. Tokenism is actively seeking "any" candidate of color.

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...


[ Parent ]
What a great post!
So clearly stated!

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Nail in coffin for Cooley
If he's not even able to win votes in San Diego anymore, hard to see how things could change.

While Cooley won San Diego County by 13%, Harris just netted an impressive 900 votes out of the 10000 San Diego counted today: 5028-4129. That's 55% of the two-way vote.

San Diego now has 35,000 votes left - down from 60,000 48 hours ago, and it hasn't helped Cooley at all.

Twitter.com/Taniel


Poor Max Baucus!
As the sole responsible Senator for dragging on the health care bill, I guess its fitting that his approval is -15.

Montana University polled this in November of 2009 and found Baucus's approval at 44/40. Baucus hasn't been too helpful in 2010 so I am not surprised that it has dropped more.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


It'd be great if Baucus retired come 2014
It'd give Brian Schweitzer something to do, and he's probably one of my favorite politicians in the country. Maybe even the favorite now that Periello and Chet Edwards are on their way out.

[ Parent ]
Baucus' numbers
will probably have significantly recovered by then. He's got another 3 years or so before his campaign will need to kick into high gear.

[ Parent ]
I have a feeling he's being a particular ass because he's retiring.


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Schweitzer? No thanks!
As far as I'm concerned, his infamous 2006 NYT Magazine interview was a career-killer for him in national Democratic politics:

Schweitzer remains an iconoclast; he says he supported John McCain's presidential bid in 2000, though he has since soured on McCain because of the way he has courted the religious right, and he says he is now intrigued by the possibility of a presidential run by Mitt Romney, the Republican governor of Massachusetts, in 2008. "If he gets the nomination, I might support him," Schweitzer told me.

I can overlook a lot, but supporting Mitt Romney crosses the line.


[ Parent ]
Its still Montana
Assuming he is more liberal than Bobby Bright, I would rather have him as a Senator from Montana than a Demint clone. I mean Tester isn't exactly liberal either.  

[ Parent ]
I
still love Tester for standing up against the fragrant violation of our personal rights called the "Patriot Act."



19, Male, Independent, CA-12


[ Parent ]
Yay!
I'm glad that Feingold isn't the only Dem Senator (Bernie Sanders is an indie) who opposes the "PATRIOT" Act.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
At least Tester is a loyal Democrat
Cool hair, too!

[ Parent ]
WATN?: Soon to be former-Rep. Joe Cao mulling run for LA SoS
http://www.2theadvocate.com/bl...
If he ran, he'd probably be attacked from the right by Dems and Reps. He'd be the most liberal candidate running.  

Didn't you predict this may happen a few months ago?
I'm a bit surprised, but I guess the political bug is hard to shake.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
I did say
I could see him running for it. He should skip this race though and go for AG next year. As the only statewide elected Dem, Caldwell should be a big target and Cao would get a lot of votes from liberals unhappy with Caldwell. Again, though, Caldwell could run to the right of Cao since he is suing the fed government on HCR, which Cao supported.  

[ Parent ]
is he liberal
or as he just voting his district?  i imagine the vote for the HCR bill hurt a lot, but can he excuse it?  it seems like (and i'm pretty sure i mentioned this before the election, so i'm not captain hindsight) that it would have made more sense for him to vote straight R and go out in a blaze of conservative glory then run statewide rather than try to hold his unwinnable district.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
It will hurt him
I think he is actually much more liberal than his voting record showed. For example, he was in favor of Cap and Trade, but he voted against it because it would hurt his district. I do actually believe he supported the health care bill for his district, not for political reasons. He could run to the right, but I think he would be attacked for flip flopping.  

[ Parent ]
This is what I've said for a while
"it would have made more sense for him to vote straight R and go out in a blaze of conservative glory then run statewide rather than try to hold his unwinnable district."

He could have voted straight Republican, given up on seeking re-election, and instead go for state-level office. Instead, he tried to play both sides and ended up pissing everyone off.


[ Parent ]
Maybe
 he can run as a dem or indie?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Indie bid would make sense
He would probably carry New Orleans and get much of the black vote in the north and Baton Rouge. He was actually an independent until he ran for congress in 2008. In 2007, he ran for the state house as an independent. He said he joined the Republican party because of his views on abortion and he did not want Jefferson to be re-elected with him as an indy, so he could easily go back indy. He does not have strong ties to the Republican party.

[ Parent ]
Iowa House and Senate elections
I listed the Iowa House and Senate Democrats before and after the election, grouped by Congressional district. We lost legislative seats in all five Congressional districts. Not a pretty picture and doesn't make me confident about the Iowa Democratic Party's GOTV program.

I don't know what the biggest problem was (lack of money, poor campaign message, poor targeting of voters), but we should have been able to save a few more legislative districts. Yes, it was bad at the top of the ticket, but we lost a bunch of state senators and representatives even in Braley's, Loebsack's and Boswell's districts.


I think w/o evidence of actual mistakes, your take is unfair to the state Dems......
Geez, it was a national anti-Democratic wave election, we lost a record 18 state legislative chambers across the country in one day.  Neighboring MN went from Dem supermajorities in both chambers to GOP control of both.  We got hammered all through the Midwest and elsewhere.  Culver was unpopular and nowhere did I hear you or other Demcorats that Culver did a "good job" as Governor.  Grassley ran what I believe was the best campaign of his life, actually better than 1980 when he beat John Culver.

And I lived through a wave like this myself in Virginia last year, and learned firsthand just how uninterested voters are in state legislative races.  Even if they're on TV, voters don't know anything about the candidates, and in a wave election are driven entirely by their feelings toward one or both parties and the candidates at the top of the ticket.  My incumbent Delegate, Margi Vandherhye, ran a terrific field operation in a Democratic district, and still got knocked off thanks to coattails.

You need to give state Dems a break.  You can't overcome everything.  Iowa is not a Democratic state, it's a swing state, with an uncommonly large number of swing voters.  So it's more susceptible to waves than many other states.  That was true in 2006 and 2008 in our favor, and it's true in 2010 working against us.

You should be grateful all our U.S. House incumbents survived and we held the state Senate; Dems in many states fared much worse than that.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Eh, MN and IA had a big difference in what races to focus on
Everyone knew in IA that Culver was going to get his ass kicked and that the focus needed to be on keeping the state house.  In MN, we figured we had our state legislative majorities on lock-down and all we needed was getting Dayton over the finish-line.  So saying the IA Dem Party sucked at GOTV could be accurate as down-ballot races need a much more heavily-oriented GOTV operation.

But I will definitely agree with you that indy voters went heavily GOP and there wasn't anything GOTV could have done about that.  And I will say I think I was completely wrong in thinking that Horner had hurt Dayton more rather than Emmer.  Emmer was viewed as an extremist moron with Dayton just being an extremist, but in 2010, the Indys went big for the GOP in the state legislature while just enough of them  went Indy in the gubernatorial to prevent Emmer from winning.  Dayton pretty much got the exact same percentage on Election Day as he was getting in every poll while Emmer improved pretty dramatically, depending on the poll.  And Emmer still losing should say a lot about the candidacies of tea-baggers.  

So, Im very glad to see the Independence Party fuck over the GOP for once.  And Dayton getting 43% to me says that the floor for the DFL, even in an absolutely terrible year and with an Indy candidate getting over 10%, is still pretty god damn high.  And the 2008 results correlate this; regardless of the cycle, if DFLers aren't completely enamored with their candidate, they'll still get at least 42%.  (Barring the Indy candidate from winning or getting close to.)


[ Parent ]
Well you contradit yourself on GOTV......
You admit that GOTV doesn't help with indies, but Iowa has indies as a plurality of registered voters and typically close to 30% of actual turnout, with the major parties always only in the 30s in actual turnout.  So indies are decisive.

And Iowa is a state with an uncommonly large percentage of swing voters, as I said in my previous comment.  Harkin wins 62% one cycle, Grassley wins 64% the next one, and they are polar opposites.

As I also explained in my previous comment, anyone who has worked on state legislative races knows that it's virtually impossible to get voters to pay attention to candidates in a wave election.  State legislators, even if on TV, just get completely drowned out and buried under the clutter.  Voters just vote for the same party all the way down the ballot.

So no, there's nothing GOTV can do.

I know helplessness is hard to accept, but that's what we were this past cycle.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Webb, Kaine, lead Allen, so says PPP
http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

Webb 49-44

Kaine 50-44.

Obviously still a tossup, but it's better to start here than have the numbers reversed.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.


also, punchinello trails
allen 47-42, but allen is better known.  reference to punchinello-perrelio is that it was the name of the third boss in Super Mario RPG.  this has nothing to do with my opinion of him, but rather the similarity of the names.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Wow
Kookinelli is known by 70% of the voters in VA. He'd make the perfect tea party candidate by the way. But I'd be scared if he takes out Allen in a hypothetical primary mainly because if he wins the general, he'd be a mix of Rand Paul and Joe Miller and we don't need another loon added to the Jim DeMint caucus.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Cooch
He is not someone who goes without attention. He brings a lot of attention to himself. He would be a mistake for the GOP to run in 2012 (I doubt he leaves his AG post at any rate) but in 2013 in a base election he would be formidable. The numbers are pretty good right now. I will definitely take them. I really hope Webb runs for re-election but if he doesn't this does show that Kaine would be competitive as well. Either way I am gearing up to work my butt off for whoever we pick.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
Kaine
The numbers here fly in the face of those who were saying he was hated. +3 favorable versus Allen's -1. Webb's +6 is pretty good too given the circumstances.

[ Parent ]
Reality flies in the face of a lot said here
Kaine would be a fine candidate if Webb doesn't run.

While Allen likely will run, he may just pass because he has to go so far uphill, carrying the bickering national GOP candidates on his back.


[ Parent ]
Correct, the Kaine-hate was always head-scratching to me. Kaine has never...
...been unpopular in Virginia.  He has no fans or enemies, he just draws mild approval.  He can win or he can lose, it all depends on the quality of his campaign, but he won tough campaigns already for LG and Gov, the latter having to come from behind, so he knows how to run a strong campaign and win statewide in Virginia.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Well, yeah, in all likelihood, if Obama's winning Virginia, so is Webb
I get the feeling Allen won't get into this unless the field is cleared for him, ala Mark Kirk. I think he realizes a primary vs. Cucinelli would be competitive and bloody, and it'd hand Webb re-election. He could, I suppose, Dan Coats his way through the primary if TWO Tea Partiers got into the mix, but that seems a stretch.

This'll be a toss-up all the way, and I suspect it's a case of "so goes Obama..."

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
Senate saving grace
The key seats are all in places Obama should be competitive in sans Nebraska. Unless he gets blown away presidential turnout will help McCaskill, Tester, Nelson, Brown, Stabenow, Cantwell, Casey and Menendez and in VA, NM and WI. At this very early stage I think they pick up a couple seats net if Obama wins by a similar margin to 2008 as I expect.

[ Parent ]
Which seats
are the ones where Democrats even start out at a disadvantage aside from maybe Ben Nelson? We just saw pretty decent results for Tester and Webb in the last few days. I'd need to see the same for McCaskill before saying anything, but I don't think Cantwell is vulnerable at all, unless Obama implodes in the next few years. Are there any numbers that indicate Stabenow, Bill Nelson (if you weren't referring to Ben), Menendez, and Casey are really vulnerable? (And were you referring to New Jersey, or Herb Kohl in Wisconsin?) Obama won all of those states, and Washington too, by double-digits. I'm not sure if he's going to win Michigan by 16 points like he did last time, but if he wins it by 10, why would Stabenow really be in trouble?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
None
I don't think Casey, Cantwell will lose against anybody but they shouldn't be taken for granted. Stabenow and particularly Menendez will have to work for it but both should still win if and when Obama carries NJ and MI. Bill Nelson, McCaskill and Tester are probably the frontline with probable open seats in WI, NM and perhaps VA. Ben Nelson is likely gone whatever happens. Kent Conrad and obviously Joe Manchin are also worth watching.  

[ Parent ]
What's the deal
with Menendez and Stabenow? What makes them so much more vulnerable than some others?

Anyway, sorry to sound like a broken record, but this is one reason why I so heavily emphasize voter registration and also ground games. There might not be as many unregistered potential Democrats in Wisconsin, for instance, as there are in states that aren't as contested, but there are surely some, and any sort of advantage will help both Obama, any Senate candidates running, and other Democrats. I really, really, really, really, really hope that they place an emphasis on this in 2012 like they did the last time. They already have a strong foundation from which to build something bigger and better. The Republicans will certainly have something, but it probably won't be as powerful as what the Democrats have if they work as hard as they did in 2008. I don't know how expensive it is from state to state, but if voter registration is anything like advertising, some of the states, like Montana and New Mexico, are probably a lot cheaper to work in than others, like Virginia, so there's even more of a reason to round up the money and get to work.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Menendez is underwater in favorability
Michigan looks tough right now period. Having said that if either were actually to lose then methinks Dems will be losing more seats than this year. Incidentally, someone pointed out the GOP struggling beating incumbents and that is true even comparing 2010 to 2006 and 2008 - 2 from 6 versus 6 from 6 and 5 from 8.

[ Parent ]
Excellent
Senate picture already looks less daunting than it did what with this and the MT numbers.

[ Parent ]
The important thing to realize
is that Democratic incumbents do not fall easily.  If you look at elections since 1994, very few incumbents have actually lost.  The VAST majority of seats lost since then have been open seats.  This is not the case for Republicans (just look at 2006 and 2008!).  If our incumbents run, they have a good chance of winning.

[ Parent ]
great point to bring up!


[ Parent ]
The real "tell" regarding Cuccinelli is...
...that he actually trails Perriello.  That's a big deal.  Perriello isn't well-known outside his district except among high-information voters.  And he easily has a more liberal profile than Kaine or Webb.  And yet, the state AG who has made himself conpicuous trails against him.

Cuccinelli wants to run for Governor in 2013, and it isn't likely to try for Senate in 2012, but these horserace tests give us a good idea of what to expect in VA-Gov 2013.  Cooch likely will get the GOP nod, and we Dems are licking our chops to run against him instead of Bolling, who keeps his head down and doesn't make waves.  We just need a competent candidate; I'm not sure Terry McAuliffe is the right guy, but if he can beat anyone, it's Cooch.

Full disclosure, more snark than serious but also a true story, my wife went to school with Cuccinelli when they were kids, they were in the same social circle, and to this day remembers him as a dick who she says was "not smart and full of himself."  This was just in middle school!  She despises him and is a reliable vote against him, in 2009 and again in 2013.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
My gut
tells me that Webb would be the stronger candidate for Virginia, just because his background makes him seem like a better fit, but I'd probably prefer someone like Perriello over Webb voting purely on politics. And those numbers are strong enough--not really strong, but certainly not bad--that it looks like he'd have a pretty good shot against a base candidate unless it was a really bad year for Democrats.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
considering how unknown Perriello must be statewide
I'd give him a 50-50 shot as of today of beating Allen with those numbers.

[ Parent ]
and let's also see how much talk Glenn Nye gets
as being a Blue Dog didnt help him one bit.

[ Parent ]
I hope we've seen the last of him
I hope he actually believed he was helping people by voting against the Leadership, because if he was doing that just to try to pander to right-wingers, he should have lost his self-esteem along with his job. OK, that's a little harsh, but he sure did demonstrate that being a Democrat and voting against the Leadership didn't win an election.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
If he gets your good lady to actually vote
He really must be a piece of work considering everything you've told us. And I mean that in the nicest possible way!

[ Parent ]
I still had to bribe her by agreeing to clean the basement last year...
...in exchange for her going to vote.

Not a real bribe since she would have made me clean the basement anyway, and I would have dutifully complied.  So a pretty good deal for me, as in reality I got somethin' for nothin'!

And as a bonus she voted straight-ticket Democratic; I pushed her only to vote for our incumbent Democrat for Delegate, knowing we were doomed already in the statewide races.  But McDonnell scared her for his views on women, she knew and hates Cooch, and she went ahead and voted Democratic for LG even though she knew nothing about either choice.  So I got votes for all 4 Dems from her.

:-)

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Bill Bolling
I think Bill Bolling has a very serious debate on his hands. There is no chance in heck that he would ever beat Cooch in a primary/convention and he would be a decided underdog (though probably not as big) to Allen as well. Does he take the plunge in 2012?

Cooch is one of those "conservative superstars" who is out there trying to attract attention to himself. I know that he scares the crap out of a lot of NoVa generic vanilla Republicans. Not that they'd not vote for him but they are not in love with his "fascination" of social issues. I'd like our chances against him given his relatively high name ID and his baggage. I think a TMac, Perriello (AG) and Generic Dem (LG) ticket in 2013 could work out well if Cooch was leading the GOP ticket. Again way too early to say but these numbers definitely are not bad.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  


[ Parent ]
Cooch has hurt himself badly in NoVA this year......
He lost Fairfax County to Shannon anyway in spite of a blowout win statewide, and since then he's been all culture war all the time.  That plays very poorly in NoVA, where the swing voters are uniformly anti-tax cultural moderates or liberals.  Crusading on religion and against gays and abortion, and even the HCR lawsuit which isn't really popular even if HCR itself isn't popular, are hurtin him badly in the urban crescent.  But that's who he is, and further he's only emboldened from winning the AG race as easily as he did.

I suspect Cuccinelli will end up being 2013's Jerry Kilgore:  too weak where most of the people live to actually win.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
So
Cucinelli should be DOA in 2013. Of course, Creigh Deeds could always run...

[ Parent ]
haha
I knew someone would say that (I was thinking Adam would). There is no way in heck I want Deeds anywhere near a ballot. Not even with a 30 foot pole.

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
hahahahahaha
that made my night

[ Parent ]
So maybe this will stop the comments about how Kaine is so unpopular
Or that George Allen is some Republican super-star.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Eating crow....
I was one who thought Kaine would be terrible so I am going to eat my words here. I do hope that Webb runs again as I do like Webb a lot and 2006 was the year when I became "politically involved".  I am not afraid of George Allen and would welcome a rematch against him.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
Yes, and these numbers are no surprise at all to me......
I never understand why people here were down on Kaine or afraid of Allen.  Neither made sense.

Honestly I think the GOP would be well-served by running a fresh face, maybe Bolling or a Congressman, in 2012 VA-Sen.  I suspect Allen will fall flat on his face.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
VA GOP
To me the GOP should go with Tom Davis, Bill Bolling or even Rob Whittman but I really doubt any of them would challenge Allen if he jumped in. All indications are that he will. He feels "wronged" by his loss and wants to reverse Webb's "lucky" win. Allen has tons of negative baggage going beyond being a Bush apologists his macaca comment isn't going away anytime soon. While it is very early in the process I'm feeling much better about our chances to hold the seat even if Webb retires. Kaine shouldn't have any issues with fundraising so whoever gets the DSCC job may be somewhat relieved if this happens.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
It is amazing to me
that the whole "noose in his office" thing did not cause every eligible AA voter in VA to vote against him.  The "macaca" incident was horrible. He also lied about it by trying to say that he made up the word.  It really showed his character or lack of it.

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...


[ Parent ]
Teleprompter
He needs to use a teleprompter every single place that he goes. Obama has said some dumb things that he wishes he could take back but never anything that single handedly ruined his career like Allen. The funny thing was hearing him say how he made up the word. His defense of it was embarrassing.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
Tom Davis
would be great and I think he would have probably the best shot, but if it goes to convention like it did in '08 and '09 then he has no chance of getting the nom. I'm not sure the procedure but VA GOP should really be using a primary to determine ther nominee if they want their best shot at a W.

This is basically why he retired, he wanted a shot in '08 but he stood no chance against the tired retread Gilmore in a convention. He was so disgusted he left Congress, opening the seat up for Connolly.  


[ Parent ]
Today, Davis can't win a primary, either......
The entire GOP across the country has gone hard right, and VA is no exception.  And Davis has been out of office a couple terms now, making him a little more stale, a has-been.

Tom Davis is done, unless he wants to make a local comeback at some point in Fairfax County, but even then it would be a lot harder for him than it used to be.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
VA
It seems to be not as bad there. For example, in most states, Scott Rigell and Robert Hurt would have been crushed in Republican primaries with the opponents they had, but they still had pretty good wins.  

[ Parent ]
Robert Hurt had
a slew of tea party people running against him in the primary.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
yup, even if this is the new swing state Virginia
it's GOP electorate is still stuck in the post-Civil War mentality and they will go ape shit crazy for a tea-bagger.  Having just one to defeat a establishment candidate is the key.

And I cannot believe I'm calling Virginia a swing-state.  Oh, how so much has changed from me being an 18 year old looking at the 2004 map to thinking about 2008.  I still look at NC and go, holy fucking shit.


[ Parent ]
Fractured field
Rigell won the primary with 39.5% against five other candidates. Had Rigell gone up against Ben Loyola one-on-one, he would probably have lost.

[ Parent ]
Tom Davis is clearly to the left of Hurt and Rigell, so he's toast. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Oh, and one more problem for Davis is...
...as a NoVA Congressman, he had to stick up for federal employees, and that's a record that easily can be used against him in a statewide primary.  That's one of those local things that hurt, where he has to go a certain way for his district but it doesn't play well within his own party statewide.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Chicago Mayor
Rahm is essentially a lakefront liberal in the context of Chicago politics, right? Where are the white ethnic candidates (Irish, Polish etc)? It seems like the other groups (Blacks and Hispanics) all have people in the mix. What am I missing?

32, M, MI-6, Iconoclastic Leftist

NGA: Gregoire to replace Manchin as Chair
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballo...
Manchin had a very short term heading the NGA.

Robert Menendez
http://www.politickernj.com/42...

Up for re-election in 2012 in what will be New Jersey's next statewide bonanza, U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez (D-Hoboken) now has a 38-41% approval rating, according to this morning's Quinnipiac University poll.

"Sen. Robert Menendez is said to be getting into gear for his 2012 campaign," said Qunnipiac University Poll Director Maurice Carroll. "He'd better. Not only did Democrats lose Bergen County, right next door to Menendez's Hudson County home, on Election Day; he gets a slightly negative job approval measure.

There are not too many Republicans in NJ in the bench, unfortunately, but I think he's beatable even when Obama wins the state.

Given the likelihood of some Republican losing their congressional district, there's an obvious opponent there.


Very consistent approval
Monmouth showed him at 37 approval and Q-Pac's last poll showed him at 38.  

[ Parent ]
Hit post too early
In the congressional delegation, I don't see any strong opponents. Lobiondo's campaign is being investigated, Garrett is too conservative, Chris Smith would probably not want to give up 30 years of seniority, and Frelinghuysen is too old. Lance is the only one I could see running for it and having a chance, but he has not expressed any interest. Tom Kean Jr, Kim Guadagno, and businessman Joe Crowley are much more likely candidates.  

[ Parent ]
Hmm
I think Kim Guadagno is the obvious choice unless Chris Christie and company implode, but I wouldn't write off Scott Garrett, especially if they crunch his district and he gets a free shot at it.

[ Parent ]
I think so too
She has the right profile to win statewide, and would have Christie's endorsement, which would be very helpeful for the primary and raising $$. Garrett is probably too far right for the state.  

[ Parent ]
Yeah, she's probably their best bet
Even so, good luck prevailing when President Obama is likely poised to win by double-digits atop the Dem ticket. If Menendez is this unpopular, he should just step aside. Heck, this might be ideal timing for Cory Booker to make his move, especially if he doesn't want to challenge Christie in 2013.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
It won't be quite as difficult as you think, IMO
There's no way Menendez steps aside, he considers himself to be the Latino crusader who needs to yelp about all the injustice that is happening on the other side of the country in Arizona, Nevada, etc.

And if you can't primary Laughtenberg in 2008, there's no way you can primary Menendez and his Newark power base.

Al Gore took 56% of the New Jersey vote in 2000. Corzine got 50% that year.


[ Parent ]
Corzine
still won though. And his opponent wasn't some flaming right winger that turned off suburban voters. In fact it's surprising he won at all seeing as he saturated the airwaves like Whitman and McMahon did this year.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
I wouldn't call it surprising
It's a Dem state for a reason.

I only bring it up because I can see the possibility of Obama netting something between 53% (what John Kerry got in 2004) and 58% (what Obama got in 2008) and Bob Menendez losing.

Menendez isn't quite at Chris Dodd/Harry Reid territory, but he's heading there. Corzine in 2000 wasn't an incumbent, in fact, at the time he was an ex Goldman Sachs chairman back when Goldman Sachs wasn't hated.


[ Parent ]
38-41 is absolutely nowhere near
Even heading toward Dodd/Reid territory. I'd argue he is more like Patty Murray in a similar state by PVI.

[ Parent ]
You're probably right
The only difference is that Murray is a big porker and Menendez is useless.

Will that matter? We'll see.


[ Parent ]
Why do you say
Menendez is heading into Dodd/Reid territory? Which polls are you referring to?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Well
Menendez seems to consistenly be at or around 38-39%.

Weren't Dodd and Reid at the 35-36% range?


[ Parent ]
Yes
But also above 50% disapproval. Menendez isn't. His numbers suggest "meh" as is often the case in NJ.

[ Parent ]
Problem
is Jersey always hate their politicians. But they rarely ever throw them out. You would have to be really hated like Corzine did to be thrown out or caught in a bad year in a traditionally Republican district like Adler. Though I understand Chris Christie's approvals are actually in the positive territory. But then again Menendez could lose, especially if Christie tells some of the Democratic party bosses he's tight with to roll over and play dead.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Right
Menendez and Corzine are pretty linked at the hip.

Christie, though, has really re-energized the Republican party here. He's not perfect by any means, but he's doing a lot.

http://www.nj.com/news/index.s...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U...

The key seems to be Burlington and Middlesex counties.


[ Parent ]
Bergen
Do you think any of the Republican frontrunners (I would assume those are Kean, Crowley, and Guadagno) could win it, with how big it swung Republican this year?  

[ Parent ]
Absolutely
Bergen county is less Democratic than the state as a whole.

Any Republican is going to get drenched in Camden, Newark, and Trenton, and maybe a couple other counties surrounding Newark. The rest of the state is not that blue.

Bergen County is a high income area with a median income in the $65k range. It is, of course, a property tax hellhole as well.

Last time, Bob Menendez dominated the $50-100k income bracket about 60-40. If they're swinging back this way, its because Democrats in New Jersey are water carriers for the public sector unions.


[ Parent ]
Beating Corzine versus beating Menendez
Federal versus state may well kick in here. Christie barely won remember and in an off year when Dem turnout was significantly down. Whoever the Republican nominee happens to be in 2012 they won't have such a perfect storm unless Obama sinks further.

[ Parent ]
He won by 4% with a 3rd party candidate
http://eagletonpoll.blogspot.c...

The problem with New Jersey of course is the inherent huge Dem advantage. These aren't Reagan Democrats either; they're pretty straight party line guys.

2008 voter registration: 33% (D) 20% (R) 47% (I)

New Jersey entered the recession before other states, and it's probably going to exit later than other states. That perfect storm is going to last a little longer here.
 


[ Parent ]
4% is "barely" in my book
Particularly against an incumbent with such terrible personal numbers. And at least two parts of the "perfect storm" of 2009 won't be there in 2012 - high Democratic turnout and an incumbent with favorables nowhere near as bad. But I agree it won't be a slam dunk. Lautenberg only won by about 13 points in 2008 for instance.

[ Parent ]
That's not a fair assessment
Incumbents generally don't lose, absent some scandal.

Jennifer Granholm was sitting in the low 40s in late 2006. She won.

Ted Strickland was sitting in the low 40s and lost by 3%.

I really can't think off too many sitting governors who lost by more than that. Bush II winning in 1994 comes to mind, but that's about it.


[ Parent ]
Chet Culver
Ernie Fletcher, Bob Erhlich, Gray Davis, Joe Kernan, Ronnie Musgrove, Jim Hodges, Roy Barnes. All just this decade and all lost by at least six points.

Not to mention Bob Holden, Frank Murkowski and Jim Gibbons losing primaries.


[ Parent ]
Christie's endorsement
didn't save Mike Castle or State Sen. Tom Goodwin.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
that's a pretty silly argument
Mike Castle lost in a primary, and Tom Goodwin lost 51-49 in pretty heavy Democratic territory.

[ Parent ]
The point is endorsements
don't mean that much in most cases.  Christie may be nominally approved of, but his personal favorability is underwater.

Also, Tom Goodwin lost 54-46 in a district that favors Democrats for national office, but is used to electing Republican State Senators (i.e. Barroni and Inverso before him) in a year that was supposed to be bad for Democrats everywhere.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Normally true
The problem is that NJ14 is full of disproportionate numbers of public union people.

Those people won't vote Republican here anymore, after the last year.

In exchange, if we can get some of the middle/upper middle class voters that have been hammered with NJ's property taxes, well, I'll take that trade.


[ Parent ]
Another reason it didn't help Goodwin
Goodwin was running in a general. I said his endorsement would help Guadagno win the primary. Wasn't Baroni also much more moderate than Goodwin?  

[ Parent ]
He might have been
The old batch of NJ Republicans was a pretty moderate and incompetent bunch.

That's partially why I dislike the idea of going with Tom Kean. He's already had a shot at the Senate once.

That's partially why I don't write off Scott Garrett simply because he is conservative. Christie is the first guy who is really different that what we had before, and its a breath of fresh air.


[ Parent ]
What discredits Garrett
is that he supports offshore oil drilling.  That is to NJ what Yucca Mountain is to NV.  Also, I wouldn't call the NJ GOP of the 90's "incompetent" by any stretch.  They did have the trifecta after all.  Now, well, they don't.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Its
going to be interesting to see how the state legislative races play out next year in NJ.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Somewhat true
When I say they're incompetent, that's more of a policy preference than a political calculation.

Christie Whitman was the moron who came up with the 1997 plan to borrow money and invest it in the stock market, assuming a 9% return to pay off your bondholders.

Yeah.....

They don't now because of redistricting, when the so called nonpartisan Larry Bartels simply approved the Democratic map. The NJ GOP got 52% of the legislative vote in 2009.


[ Parent ]
Democrats won the nationwide popular vote for US Senate in 2004
Yet ended up with just 45 seats. It cuts both ways in almost every state at any given time.

[ Parent ]
of course it does
My only point is that I wouldn't say that the NJ GOP of the 90s was better than the NJ GOP of 2010.

They merely had the map on their side in the 1990s and not the 2000s. Bartlett v Strickland should help in this matter.


[ Parent ]
Is Christie
Governor of Delaware? Did Castle lose a Republican primary in DE? Tom Goodwin also came very close in a pretty Dem district.  

[ Parent ]
No, but
I would have thought that his endorsement would settle the base and allow Castle to win (really, I did, no snark).

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
This Christie talk reminds me of MA
Scott Brown wins and that supposedly made almost every other Democrat in the state vulnerable. Sure, Menendez is a little weak but his favorables are more like Frank Lautenberg in 2008 than Jon Corzine's in 2009. The presidential year also favors the incumbent this time.  

[ Parent ]
well
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20...
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20...
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20...

The proportion of liberals in Massachusetts is simply a lot higher. There's a lot more uniform Democratic strength in MA, which is why they have 0 Democratic Congressmen (as opposed to 6 in NJ).


[ Parent ]
I'm not sure what that proves
Yeah, MA is a very Democratic state which a Republican won in a low turnout special election. Democrats just won in WA, WV, CO, NV, OR, CA, DE, CT, NY (2) and MD - all less Democratic by PVI. Just because Christie won in very different circumstances doesn't mean Menendez automatically becomes vulnerable. Though I agree he somewhat is.

[ Parent ]
Sen Ensign...
Don't know if it goes here but he is running again for his seat in 2012.  

Here is the link:

http://www.lvrj.com/blogs/smit...

And who has brought the popcorn...

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...


Actually saw him at Harvey's in Tahoe last week
Buttonholing what appeared to be higher rollers in their rooftop restaurant.... I was sooooooo tempted to ask him if he had paid off any ... ah ... distressed husbands lately.

[ Parent ]
AK-Sen: SSPer JimAK has gotta be bummed today as Murkowski wins......
The AP has called it for Murkowski this afternoon.

I think JimAK was the most ferocious Joe Miller supporter on SSP.  And he never relented in insisting Miller would win, even comfortably.

Biggest prediction fail since Mark's declaration we'd lose 93 House seats.

Oops.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


MT-Pres: Obama at 41% approval, Romney/Huck up double-digits, Palin/Newt up 2
Is someone paying for these polls?
Who thought Obama would win in Montana? Okay, then PPP might as well poll other states where he will not win...

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...


[ Parent ]
He came surprisingly close in '08
And as the poll shows, I don't think it's impossible that the President wins Montana under the right circumstances in '12. He's two points behind Palin or Gingrich (FWIW, I don't think Gingrich is actually going to make a run this time, either) and that's with his approvals underwater... if he starts to make a comeback in approval polling it's certainly not impossible for his campaign to pick up Montana, Georgia... hell, maybe even Missouri.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
I can't
imagine Montana is an expensive state to campaign in. While it's possibly more expensive to pay for voter registration drives and get out the vote efforts, it can't be as expensive as it would be in, say, Ohio or Florida. Since Obama's fund raising Obama is essentially limitless--his contact list is supposedly at least two million names deep, before it could even grow again, and while each one of them won't give him the maximum amount, they could--so he can raise a lot of money very quickly and toss it into the state.

I'm trying to learn more about this, but if the link below is any indication, very little was spent on ads in Montana in 2008--$971,040, to be exact. Maybe that's just because it's a cheap state, but at the same time, if it's such a cheap state, it's easy for someone like Obama--and I am assuming most of the spending was from him--to raise the stakes quite a bit. At some point, diminishing returns kick in, but if about half of his donors kick in just $5, he could spend about five times what was spent four years earlier. That's why, unless he's polling 20 or 30 points behind the Republican, I could see him spending money on the state anyway. If his fund raising is strong, what's the harm?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
I can't
imagine Montana is an expensive state to campaign in. While it's possibly more expensive to pay for voter registration drives and get out the vote efforts, it can't be as expensive as it would be in, say, Ohio or Florida. Since Obama's fund raising Obama is essentially limitless--his contact list is supposedly at least two million names deep, before it could even grow again, and while each one of them won't give him the maximum amount, they could--so he can raise a lot of money very quickly and toss it into the state.

I'm trying to learn more about this, but if the link below is any indication, very little was spent on ads in Montana in 2008--$971,040, to be exact. Maybe that's just because it's a cheap state, but at the same time, if it's such a cheap state, it's easy for someone like Obama--and I am assuming most of the spending was from him--to raise the stakes quite a bit. At some point, diminishing returns kick in, but if about half of his donors kick in just $5, he could spend about five times what was spent four years earlier. That's why, unless he's polling 20 or 30 points behind the Republican, I could see him spending money on the state anyway. If his fund raising is strong, what's the harm?

http://www.fairvote.org/follow...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Um, he lost MT just 50-47 last time and polled real close all that year......
Montana was a new battleground in 2008, so it's valid to poll now, too.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
MT
They were polling MT anyway for Tester's re-elect, and probably decided to throw in some questions on Obama while they had people on the phone.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
All the more impressive that Tester is hanging in there
His positive favorability is very important.

[ Parent ]
Heck, even Michael Dukakis came within 6% in '88
It's now fair to say that Montana has been a swing state for a couple of decades, though with a red tinge.

[ Parent ]
Clinton actually carried it in 1992
Granted, it had more than a little to do with Perot but he still won.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, Montana was actually part of the Dukakis path to 270
His strategy also included winning North and South Dakota. How things change...

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
There is more reason
To poll a state than a presidential election. Like what looks like they will be some of the most competitive gov and sen races in the country.  

[ Parent ]
Wtf
Whitman loaned her campaign $2.6 million on election day. I guess she just loved breaking piggy banks....

http://blogs.sacbee.com/capito...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12



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