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Redistricting North Carolina

by: krazen1211

Sat Nov 13, 2010 at 3:12 PM EST


This is my first shot at this, so be gentle :)

Meant to create:

1 Heath Shuler: 11

4 blue districts: 1, 4, 7, 12

8 red districts: 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 13

http://img413.imageshack.us/im...
krazen1211 :: Redistricting North Carolina
NC-1 (dark blue): Butterfield (D)

Obama 59%.

Mostly the same as before. The way I drew it, its only plurality black, not majority black. It could probably be tinkered with easily to be majority black though.

NC-2 (bright green): Ellmers (R)

McCain 55%

Loses Raleign and Chatham county, and most of Cumberland county. Picks up some nice R areas elsewhere.

NC-3 (purple): Jones (R)

McCain 58%

Pretty ugly. This was the leftover territory district for me.

NC-4 (red): Price (D)

Obama 72%

Congrats David Price. Obama vote dump. Loses carefully chosen sections of Chatham, Durham, Orange,and holds all of Chapel Hill and Raleigh.

NC-5 (yellow): Foxx (R)

McCain 55%

Absorbs a piece of Guilford county and the Greensboro area. Probably weaker than before.

NC-6 (olive green): Coble? (R)

McCain 55%

Not sure where Coble lives:

Covers most of Davidson, Rowan, Cabarrus, a bit of the Charlotte suburbs, and another piece of Guilford county.

NC-7 (grey): McIntyre (D)

Obama 58%

Another Democratic voting dump. Retains a piece of New Hanover and keeps Fayetville. All these counties voted for Elaine Marshall over Burr for Senate this year.

With a bit of fancier line drawing this can probably hit 60% Obama easily.

NC-8 (purple): Coble (R)

McCain 55%

See 6.

Yields territory to the new 6th and grabs Chatham and a piece of Wake County. Less Repbulican than before. Either 6 or 8 gets a new Republican.

NC-9 (teal): Mynick (R)

McCain 55%

Mostly unchanged.

NC-10 (pink): McHenry (R)

McCain 58%

Absorbs half of Buncombe. Picks up some of the 5ths territory.

NC-11 (bright green): Shuler (D)

McCain 56%

Breaks Buncombe in 2. Grabs some territory from the 5th and 10th. Shuler can win this anyway, though. A future Democrat probably can't.

NC-12 (pale blue): Watt (D)

Obama 68%

Mostly unchanged. Picks up some more Dem territory at both ends, but maintains the general 2 city and corridor structure. Almost certianly less than 50% white at this point.

A professional could probably hit 70% Obama with this, and shore up the new 6th.

NC-13 (tan): Miller (D)

McCain 55%

Loses most of Raleigh and Greensboro. Grabs all of Alamance county and some areas from the old 2nd.

Designed to knock off Brad Miller.

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Redistricting North Carolina | 36 comments
Nice job
From a Rethug perspective; I could see them doing something like this.
Good thing they can't with
Democrats holding the governorship.  
[ Parent ]
The governor doesn't have veto power over redistricting in NC.
nt

21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)
[ Parent ]
Yep
Just gave it another go.

It's possible to draw NC-1 (Butterfield) into Wake County to pick up ~150,000 liberal voters AND keep that district 51% black.

Price's district is the same, McIntyre's district is the same, Watt's district is still a Greensboro/Charlotte 70% Obama district connected by a tendril (although the tendril moves), and the new Republican district is still something parallel to Watt's that dilutes Guilford county.

http://img440.imageshack.us/im...

Either way you get a nice collection of 8 McCain 55-59% districts.

The question really is whether to draw Watt's district up to Winston Salem or to Greensboro.

[ Parent ]
I did one with 9 Solid R districts
NC 9-4
[ Parent ]
I have 9 R districts too.
I just don't think Shuler will be beaten anyway, in your district or mine. You're looking at the next Chet Edwards, IMO.
[ Parent ]
In my view, he can be defeated
by removing Asheville and adding some of the redder Charlotte burbs.

And even if he can't, it's to the Republicans's advantage to give him a tough district.  

[ Parent ]
One Other Factor
Neither Foxx nor McHenry (the nearest Rs to Shuler) have any cross-party appeal so their sensitivity threshold is perhaps a little higher than a that of a boring generic R.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03
[ Parent ]
Shuler might be beatable
but it would be hard. He won 54-46 in 2010. You could make his district maybe 8 or 9 points more GOP-leaning through redistricting, but even then in an extremely republican year like 2010 he would only lose by 1% or so.

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Yep, that's basically what I did
I think you want to only split Asheville in 2, though.

As has been said McHenry isn't the greatest crossover guy so I don't want to give him the whole thing.

It's good to see all of us basically have the same pattern. Probably means we are on the mark.

[ Parent ]
Here's mine

NC-01: D (Eastern NC, part of Durham) 66% Obama
NC-02: R (Raleigh suburbs) 57% McCain
NC-03: R (Pamlico Sound, Eastern NC) 58% McCain
NC-04: D (Raleigh, Chapel Hill, most of Durham) 68% Obama
NC-05: R (Most of Winston-Salem, including the AA parts) 56% McCain
NC-06: R (Most of Greensboro, including the AA parts) 54% McCain
NC-07: R (Greensboro and Charlotte suburbs) 60% McCain
NC-08: D (Part of Charlotte, most of Fayetteville) 63% Obama
NC-09: R (Part of Charlotte, most of Gastonia) 56% McCain
NC-10: R (Asheville, Hickory) 55% McCain
NC-11: 58% McCain, but i think Shuler can hold on (Part of Buncombe County, Western NC)
NC-12: D (Do i have to explain this?) 68% Obama
NC-13: 51% McCain, but i think McIntyre can hold on (Wilmington, Lumberton, oddly Native American areas?)
NC-14: Swing 50% McCain district, i'm pretty sure NC gains a seat because when i check off "Use New Pop Est it gives a total pop. of 9,222,414 which is enough for 14 districts. (NEW district, Raleigh suburbs)

So in total,
7 Solid R Districts
2 R Districts, represented by Democrats (NC-11 and NC-13)
3 Solid D Districts
1 Tossup (the new NC-14)

Losers:
Either David Price or Brad Miller (NC-04)
Larry Kissell (Unless he wants to try the new NC-08, but good luck with that one..)
Maybe Heath Shuler

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.

[ Parent ]
Typo, make that 4 Solid D Districts
n/t

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.
[ Parent ]
Looks a bit too close to the old NC-12
Which was shot down as a racial gerrymander.
[ Parent ]
I doubt it
It looks better than the existing 12th.
[ Parent ]
The original NC-12
stretched all the way from Charlotte to Durham.
[ Parent ]
Courts haven't been striking down
districts on that basis since the 90s. I think it's because most states wised up and started drawing their odd districts based on political instead of racial factors.  
[ Parent ]
Will the Republicans go after McIntyre or Miller?
Basically if they want to make NC-02 and NC-08 more Republican then they will have to choose between either making the 7th or 13th district more Republican, and one of those districts more Democratic. It is possible to give Miller a safe Democratic district that has Durham and Southeast Raleigh, while giving Price the Democratic areas of Greensboro, Chapel Hill, and Fayetteville. This would leave McIntyre with a 58% McCain district while at the same time getting NC-02 up to 55% McCain.

I think that the Republicans would rather get rid of McIntyre since his district has more potential to go Republican (a lot of the state legislative seats that flipped were in Eastern NC). Plus if he is gone and it is just the very liberal Price, Miller, Butterfield, and Watt left in office then moderate voters will not feel as amenable to voting for Democrats at other levels downballot possibly. Another possible risk for the GOP if McIntyre loses though is if he decides to run for statewide office (remember the chatter about him running for Senate against Burr last cycle?). I feel like they will be more likely to go after McIntyre than Miller though personally for those reasons. Let me know what you all think though.

There's a problem there
That confirguration doesn't sink Democratic votes efficiently enough.

Durham/Raleigh doesnt give you enough population to fill Miller's district. Chapel Hill provides a really nice source of Dems, but you are already allocating that to Price, and when you stretch across the map to Fayetville, sort of Chop Ellmers NC-02 district in half.

All of us pretty much drew the same Price district. Chapel Hill to Durham to half of Raleigh just becomes a compact 70% Obama district too easily, and its really fast population growing territory.

Moving Butterfield into the other half of Raleigh makes a lot of sense, too. Then its completely gone from any GOP territory.


[ Parent ]
Krazen:
What are your thoughts for Ohio?  If Jim Jordan runs for Senate as expected, I think they will eliminate his district, while combining Kaptur, Kucinich, Fudge, and Ryan's districts into 3 districts instead of 4.
[ Parent ]
tough to do
Dave needs to get some Ohio partisan data in, but I think:

Jim Jordan (if he volunteers), Dennis Kucinich, Betty Sutton all lose their districts.

Kaptur goes from Toledo to Lorain. Might use some touch point continuity to give a bunch of territory to Bob Latta.

Renacci drops Stark County, and picks up all of the rest of Medina county, as well as southern Cayuhoga county where the  western Cleveland suburbs are.

Latuorette expands to the eastern Cleveland suburbs, and the northern area of Tim Ryan's district.

Fudge gets the rest of Kucinich's district.

Tim Ryan gets Akron and Youngstown.

A new Dem district is plopped into Columbus. This shores up all the Columbus area districts.

Stark County has a lot of population, and it leans Democrat, so you then split that 3 ways. Pat Tiberi gets a piece, Bob Gibbs gets a piece, and Bill Johnson gets a piece.

The last problem is the Cincinnati. Something has to be done to help Chabot, but the only nearby districts are Jean Schmidts (who keeps almost losing in a R+14 district), Mike Turners (whos sitting at R+5), and Boehner (who you don't want to touch).

[ Parent ]
The solution is
[ Parent ]
Very interesting
That is how I would envision it.  I think that would relieve pressure for all the republicans in Southern, Central, and Western Ohio.  
[ Parent ]
see picture
[ Parent ]
Wouldn't this
weaken LaTourette, Gibbs, Renecci, Latta, and Johnson?  Or am I missing something?

Also, if you create a Dem disctrict in Columbus, you could have it snake down route 71 to gobble up the minority areas of Cinci.

[ Parent ]
Well
Latuorette: probably. But he has to expand by 100k people somewhere.

Renacci: I don't think so. He's dumping Stark county. I know a good portion of the territory in that corner of Southwest Cayuhoga county voted against Betty Sutton this year (she won her territory in Akron and Lorain, and lost it in the middle)

Latta: No. The 2 middle counties in Kaptur's district (Erie and Ottowa) are not that Democratic. Plus he has Jim Jordan's territory to draw from.

Johnson: Pretty sure I haven't touched his district borders much at all.

Gibbs: Probably. It's going to need some Jim Jordan territory to compensate.

[ Parent ]
Yum yum
2 districts in Northwest Ohio for Democrats can win (Latta is a weak incumbent, and much of the districts are in pretty Obama-favorable areas). You don't think Steve LaTourrette will be in any more trouble (though, granted, it's hard to solve his problem in any event). Haven't seen the rest of the districts, but I also do wonder how the SE appalachia district and/or a Zach Space district will look like.
[ Parent ]
meh
Kaptur is already there.

Latta is not as difficult to safeguard as you think if Jim Jordan goes. You could draw someone else up to take some of that outlying territory.

Stivers is an option once you remove Columbus from his district.

I just see no reason to give the Democrats 4 Northern Ohio districts when there is only population for about 3.5 of them. If they earn the 4th, they earn the 4th.

[ Parent ]
Here is what it looks like
Photobucket

Triangle detail map

Photobucket

NC-01: 62% Obama-37% McCain
NC-02: 55% McCain-44% Obama
NC-03: 56% McCain-43% Obama
NC-04: 64% Obama-35% McCain
NC-05: 57% McCain-41% Obama
NC-06: 58% McCain-41% Obama
NC-07: 58% McCain-41% Obama
NC-08: 57% McCain-42% Obama
NC-09: 56% McCain-44% Obama
NC-10: 57% McCain-42% Obama
NC-11: 57% McCain-41% Obama
NC-12: 76% Obama-23% McCain
NC-13: 70% Obama-29% McCain

I know this is very different from everything else that has been proposed for Price's district and I drew a lot of other maps before I thought of this, but it is possible to do something like this with NC-04 and NC-13.  

[ Parent ]
Wow
That is ugly. Interesting, though.
[ Parent ]
Basically
They have a choice to go after Miller or McIntyre and I just wanted to show that it is possible to show that it is possible to give Miller a safe Democratic district and McIntyre a more Republican district. I think that is ultimately what they will do because if most of Eastern NC is represented by Republicans in Congress, then it will help the Republicans cement a lot of the downballot gains in Eastern NC they made in the state legislature this year and probably make the region more Republican. This is a region that has historically been very Democratic at the local and state level, and if they can make remove the upballot Democratic congressmembers in Eastern NC they will be able to erode that longtime base of support for the Democratic Party.

Plus, I don't think that the GOP would rather go after Miller for being more liberal than McIntyre--in a more Democratic district, McIntyre might be defeated in a primary challenge by someone who is more liberal anyway, and that person would probably win the general election in a Democratic Southeastern NC district. So one liberal member would end up getting replaced by another one. I really think Brad Miller will be preserved in one way or another in this redistricting and McIntyre will be the one to lose his seat.

[ Parent ]
Very interesting--and creative.

[ Parent ]
Thanks!
n/t
[ Parent ]
Incumbent homes
Not that big a deal, but you put the homes of several Republican incumbents in the wrong districts. For instance, you put Walter Jones in NC-01, Virginia Foxx in NC-11, Howard Coble in NC-05, and Patrick McHenry in NC-09.

For anyone that makes an NC redistricting map in the future, here are the precincts where the current GOP incumbents live:
NC-02: Renee Ellmers (Harnett County, Averasboro 3)
NC-03: Walter Jones (Pitt County, 8.00A)
NC-05: Virginia Foxx (Watauga County, Watauga)
NC-06: Howard Coble (Guilford County, Summerfield 4)
NC-09: Sue Myrick (Mecklenburg County, 144 (in the southern part of the county))
NC-10: Patrick McHenry (Gaston County, Cherryville 2)

Yeah I'm aware
Wasn't sure where people lived, but that's an issue easily solved.

I didn't know you could do touch point continuity like that, else I probably would have.

You're actually getting slightly better McCain percentages than I am.

I believe Brad Miller lives in Raleigh, though? Not that the GOP would care.

Was there no way to get Ellmers out of Raleigh altogether and bring Butterfield in? I've heard that area is really fast growing D territory, and you don't want Ellmers overwhelmed later in the decade.

[ Parent ]
Well
Not all of Raleigh/Wake County is Democratic. We just lost a seat in the state house in Wake County (based in North Raleigh, Cary, and Morrisville) as well as all three County Commissioner races. North Raleigh is more Republican than the rest of the city and the southern and northern suburbs and exurbs of Wake County are pretty Republican on the state/local levels and often the federal level. A lot of the Democratic areas of Wake County can be added to Miller's district while giving Ellmers the Republican parts. The current segment of Wake County in NC-02 is a heavily Democratic and largely African-American area of Southeast Raleigh. She would probably be fine in the more even/Republican-leaning parts of the county, although she would do best in some of the exurbs/rural counties that could be added to the district. Johnston County is a very Republican area on all levels and is basically where she got a big enough margin to defeat Etheridge. Depending on who you talk to, some people believe that at the presidential level Obama in 2008 may have been the high watermark for Democrats at the presidential level in NC and since 2008 Democrats have lost a number of local elections in Wake County. Heck, Elaine Marshall even narrowly lost Wake County to Burr which was a shock since she trounced Cunningham there in the Senate primary.

I don't think that they would add any of Raleigh to NC-01 since it just makes drawing the other districts more complicated and I still believe they will protect Miller and go after McIntyre to protect downballot gains in Eastern NC like I said before. It would be interesting though if they gave McIntyre a very Republican district and then he ran for Governor instead of Congress since Bev Perdue is very unpopular right now, he might have a better chance of winning the general election than she does.  

[ Parent ]
10-3 Republican Map
Because I can't imagine they'll settle for 9-4.



Open the zooms up in a new browser window if you need to see them bigger.

Going east to west:

Blue - 67-33 Obama (just over 50% black)
Green - 54-46 McCain
Purple - 55-44 McCain
Red - 53-46 McCain
Yellow - 69-30 Obama
Dark Teal - 53-46 McCain
Light Teal - 54-46 McCain
Purple - 56-43 McCain
Grey - 75-24 Obama (48% black)
Magenta - 55-44 McCain
Green - 54-45 McCain
Orange - 56-42 McCain
Light Purple - 59-40 McCain

The only really egregious thing I did is split Wake County between five districts.

Redistricting North Carolina | 36 comments

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